COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-09-14


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-09-14

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-07-172021-07-272021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-192021-03-102021-07-262021-08-122021-04-112021-08-162021-04-132021-03-222021-08-172021-08-192021-07-152021-03-262021-07-202021-03-252021-04-1310-292021-08-132021-09-072021-09-07
Peak daily increment 43877 69533 3238 4734 3757 3824 12260 20854 1343 26571 779 41469 3257 2177 8670 1841 6422 9508 27926 3219 5691 6121 1744 70 1437 2878
Days since peak 59 49 173 177 176 270 196 148 188 50 33 156 29 154 176 28 26 61 172 56 173 154 320 32 7 7
Last total 7282810 36861679 713269 1212106 475299 534106 1683802 4102252 353061 4918526 134305 6759097 620355 385056 815851 368712 4613214 1974662 2894455 1057100 1126582 1141673 277853 399218 178481 816110
Last daily increment 26251 54401 1696 1725 2029 1468 487 8840 425 3261 454 10327 3590 974 246 1176 4009 2009 536 1058 3929 3656 1396 474 1219 1992
Last week 188218 292220 12053 11050 8628 8173 2121 57475 2656 20268 2619 56386 12999 5093 1787 7755 27791 13077 2853 6381 15427 6513 5341 2314 6762 14062
Previous peak date2021-01-0811-0611-1110-2811-1603-2710-2912-1612-182021-01-252021-03-1811-022021-04-0712-1211-292021-01-0811-1212-1811-242021-01-2311-172021-01-05 --2021-01-032021-03-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 57011 209949 7102 16480 3440 275 12260 23910 3421 37838 701 51646 2956 3555 5428 5772 34933 11038 24706 12346 8601 8622 2814 917 8395
Low between peaks -2834 -206811 1324 1726 429 -1016 3514 7363 362 -30661 67 9751 363 312 1056 219 720 416 5006 344 2309 2589 24 165 78

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-09-14

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-09-102021-03-242021-04-122021-06-042021-06-262021-05-052021-07-152021-08-122021-08-132021-04-10 --2021-07-132021-07-022021-04-162021-09-07 --2021-07-312021-08-132021-08-262021-08-172021-08-302021-01-112021-09-072021-05-192021-09-102021-01-082021-08-2911-1212-0811-062021-09-072021-08-05 --2021-08-092021-01-102021-09-012021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-112021-08-152021-08-042021-09-072021-09-022021-04-022021-09-012021-01-132021-08-232021-08-162021-03-242021-08-122021-09-012021-09-0912-10 --2021-08-302021-09-072021-01-122021-09-012021-09-012021-08-17 --2021-08-30 --2021-09-01
Peak daily increment 1842 74830 8650 7273 29826 387103 47189 38578 18494 8699 24492 19354 58966 168724 4628 2275 3869 14480 1720 2581 201 591 68124 8874 875 4364 1492 12552 4095 1255 5922 5458 1141 454 7868 2115 57408 3723 232 6795 372 914 307 5865 819 1120 20372 2586 4304 2236 10186 394 18065 21848 892 3227 188 1890 475
Days since peak 4 174 155 102 80 132 61 33 32 157 63 74 151 7 45 32 19 28 15 246 7 118 4 249 16 306 280 312 7 40 36 247 13 153 155 157 187 30 41 7 12 165 13 244 22 29 174 33 13 5 278 15 7 245 13 13 28 15 13
Last total 78544 21019830 1563143 1644832 4932998 33316755 4174216 5340656 3516043 2162294 2266066 7072825 2864534 6710636 41365161 96938 754242 472069 1053487 4497268 642269 380036 58146 125556 3449738 1463308 70504 417129 236993 1578073 913528 390880 634289 716706 726974 512740 81173 1065941 673263 736322 466145 136175 1307724 123104 221235 112064 1120339 237583 406212 2344936 1311518 568544 303532 1354451 806597 138292 1112019 3870934 361077 814738 30356 608277 760401 213179 82463
Last daily increment 1643 13406 4014 292 1435 27176 4128 22329 0 936 17995 17529 3699 27802 143895 689 3944 1555 2609 7986 1980 1044 375 250 0 6998 421 0 1657 4641 3515 11 3999 4649 1460 1094 663 0 4587 2070 2070 1240 4338 368 0 387 2040 728 1472 4111 7325 0 2028 3732 4269 992 4730 27527 761 3659 112 2768 2488 1473 638
Last week 10502 91822 25849 2686 9801 176774 26851 129678 50872 4758 132061 108230 27761 144098 882129 3692 22091 9523 16475 51609 11560 3635 1452 2841 100248 38054 3579 0 7405 23860 24166 7085 24374 11720 10007 7183 2379 13952 10514 12686 10863 4423 40402 2502 0 2307 12830 3939 6978 31680 42677 0 11554 25340 30255 2754 41796 102389 6376 21342 940 19650 11302 11519 3166
Previous peak date08-0308-042021-01-0706-062021-01-1609-152021-01-282021-04-1810-0508-022021-04-0212-222021-01-0612-102021-01-1012-062021-01-052021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-1804-202021-01-1012-062021-01-0211-0308-2708-2709-0909-0412-0511-232021-01-0911-1604-172021-01-092021-01-1311-2711-1911-142021-01-0811-172021-01-0212-0911-2612-1104-0811-2012-092021-01-0812-082021-01-0911-2704-092021-01-1311-1312-1411-0111-142021-01-172021-04-0112-0610-192021-01-0311-19
Previous peak daily increment 481 45351 7805 7360 17013 92147 12372 23864 23278 8364 10772 27990 17714 720227 239123 689 3862 2815 9265 42167 4983 1012 285 792 16683 22916 245 1648 975 3970 6415 2770 3603 3876 2172 3015 579 7869 6769 5848 2963 1163 8240 2118 3013 793 4272 2334 2623 15822 17150 3935 1549 1625 4871 1359 7643 27059 2491 6324 173 3223 12274 1420 801
Low between peaks 5 19228 2897 1343 3453 11268 3789 8820 2152 1487 8231 937 6214 11115 110 156 412 721 374 72 8 124 701 2353 38 723 283 1757 240 66 239 -15 54 140 989 760 255 102 41 225 11 233 18 115 59 201 5685 230 86 131 424 6 48 9157 148 126 3 70 55

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-15 to 2021-09-21

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-09-14 7282810 36861679 713269 1212106 475299 534106 1683802 4102252 353061 4918526 134305 6759097 620355 385056 815851 368712 4613214 1974662 2894455 1057100 1126582 1141673 277853 399218 178481 816110
2021-09-15 7315000 36931000 713300 1215000 476700 534200 1684000 4114000 353400 4931000 135200 6779000 624900 385200 815900 369700 4618000 1977000 2895000 1058000 1129000 1142000 279000 399600 180600 819600
2021-09-16 7354000 37011000 713600 1217000 478200 534900 1685000 4134000 353900 4941000 135800 6802000 628400 385500 816000 370800 4624000 1978000 2896000 1059000 1132000 1143000 280000 399900 182400 821900
2021-09-17 7389000 37060000 714300 1219000 479800 535700 1685000 4136000 354300 4949000 136300 6815000 631500 386200 816200 371900 4629000 1980000 2896000 1060000 1134000 1145000 280900 400300 183800 823900
2021-09-18 7423000 37107000 715200 1219000 480600 536500 1686000 4146000 354600 4950000 136400 6829000 634400 386800 816200 372900 4633000 1982000 2897000 1060000 1137000 1145000 281900 400700 184800 823900
2021-09-19 7456000 37139000 716100 1219000 480900 536900 1686000 4150000 355000 4953000 137300 6841000 636700 387600 816200 373900 4637000 1983000 2897000 1061000 1140000 1145000 282500 401000 185600 823900
2021-09-20 7488000 37171000 716500 1223000 482600 537300 1686000 4155000 355400 4960000 137500 6841000 638600 387800 816800 374800 4639000 1985000 2897000 1061000 1142000 1145000 282900 401200 186700 828200
2021-09-21 7520000 37228000 717900 1225000 484500 538600 1686000 4168000 355700 4966000 138000 6852000 641700 388600 817000 375800 4643000 1987000 2898000 1061000 1145000 1148000 284100 401500 188000 832100

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-15 to 2021-09-21

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-09-14 78544 21019830 1563143 1644832 4932998 33316755 4174216 5340656 3516043 2162294 2266066 7072825 2864534 6710636 41365161 96938 754242 472069 1053487 4497268 642269 380036 58146 125556 3449738 1463308 70504 236993 1578073 913528 390880 634289 716706 726974 512740 81173 1065941 673263 736322 466145 136175 1307724 123104 112064 1120339 237583 406212 2344936 1311518 303532 1354451 806597 138292 1112019 3870934 361077 814738 30356 608277 760401 213179 82463
2021-09-15 78840 21051000 1566000 1645000 4935000 33351000 4190000 5366000 3543000 2163000 2273000 7089000 2874000 6732000 41534000 97500 761200 474700 1056000 4507000 643200 380600 58150 125700 3484000 1478000 71530 237400 1582000 917400 394600 638900 722600 727700 513600 81380 1069000 674500 738200 470200 136300 1313000 123400 112200 1122000 238700 407100 2347000 1318000 306400 1356000 810900 138700 1113000 3892000 361600 817100 30500 611700 762300 213700 82930
2021-09-16 79920 21088000 1567000 1646000 4938000 33405000 4198000 5386000 3563000 2165000 2291000 7106000 2881000 6751000 41698000 98000 767800 477400 1060000 4525000 644800 381300 58270 126000 3484000 1487000 72390 238200 1586000 921900 394600 643500 727200 729200 514600 81740 1069000 675300 740500 474400 136800 1319000 123700 112300 1124000 239400 408000 2353000 1324000 308600 1359000 814800 139100 1116000 3911000 362500 820200 30610 615300 764300 214800 83260
2021-09-17 81090 21109000 1570000 1647000 4940000 33450000 4209000 5402000 3571000 2165000 2306000 7122000 2887000 6771000 41914000 98500 773100 479600 1063000 4539000 646700 381900 58410 126500 3507000 1495000 73230 239300 1591000 926700 398200 648000 729800 730800 516000 82120 1074000 676900 743200 477200 137500 1324000 124200 112500 1126000 240300 409400 2358000 1330000 311000 1362000 819600 139500 1121000 3929000 363600 824000 30740 618600 766800 216600 83860
2021-09-18 82300 21125000 1572000 1647000 4941000 33489000 4215000 5415000 3593000 2166000 2327000 7138000 2892000 6791000 41966000 98500 778200 481300 1066000 4551000 646700 381900 58410 127000 3556000 1496000 74060 239700 1591000 926700 398200 648000 730000 730800 517200 82530 1074000 676900 745400 477300 137500 1325000 124600 112800 1128000 240300 409400 2363000 1336000 311000 1366000 819700 139500 1121000 3937000 363600 824000 30870 618600 766800 218200 83860
2021-09-19 83520 21139000 1575000 1648000 4943000 33527000 4220000 5436000 3600000 2167000 2344000 7154000 2896000 6811000 41998000 98500 780700 482400 1069000 4562000 646700 381900 58410 127300 3556000 1496000 74860 239800 1591000 926700 398200 648000 730300 730800 518200 82530 1074000 676900 746700 477700 137500 1325000 124700 113100 1130000 240300 409400 2367000 1342000 311000 1368000 819700 139500 1122000 3939000 363600 824000 31000 618600 766800 219600 83860
2021-09-20 84790 21142000 1579000 1648000 4944000 33562000 4223000 5453000 3601000 2167000 2364000 7170000 2898000 6832000 42209000 99500 783200 482800 1072000 4572000 651500 382900 59020 127700 3556000 1508000 75340 241000 1597000 934200 399500 655100 730300 733900 519100 82530 1078000 678600 747800 481800 138200 1342000 124800 113400 1131000 241700 411400 2372000 1348000 314500 1372000 837100 139800 1142000 3954000 365400 832200 31140 625400 770600 220900 84670
2021-09-21 86080 21156000 1582000 1648000 4945000 33596000 4229000 5474000 3606000 2168000 2381000 7185000 2903000 6853000 42369000 100400 786000 484200 1074000 4581000 653300 384000 59410 127900 3556000 1517000 75760 242500 1603000 939300 399900 660500 733700 736000 520100 82890 1079000 682300 749500 483300 139300 1350000 125200 113700 1133000 242700 413000 2375000 1354000 316800 1375000 840700 140600 1149000 3979000 366600 835200 31280 629700 772500 222100 85310

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-15 to 2021-09-21

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-09-14 7282810 36861679 713269 1212106 475299 534106 1683802 4102252 353061 4918526 134305 6759097 620355 385056 815851 368712 4613214 1974662 2894455 1057100 1126582 1141673 277853 399218 178481 816110
2021-09-15 7312000 36898000 715000 1214000 477000 535500 1684000 4107000 353500 4922000 134800 6765000 622500 385800 816100 369800 4616000 1977000 2895000 1058000 1129000 1143000 278800 399600 180000 818500
2021-09-16 7343000 36935000 716600 1216000 478400 536800 1685000 4116000 353900 4928000 135100 6778000 624800 386500 816300 371000 4619000 1979000 2895000 1059000 1130000 1144000 279500 399900 181600 820400
2021-09-17 7373000 36957000 718300 1217000 479700 538100 1685000 4118000 354300 4933000 135400 6786000 626900 387200 816400 372100 4622000 1981000 2896000 1060000 1132000 1144000 280300 400300 182900 821900
2021-09-18 7402000 36980000 719800 1218000 480400 539400 1685000 4122000 354700 4936000 135500 6795000 629000 387900 816500 373200 4624000 1982000 2896000 1061000 1134000 1144000 281000 400600 183900 822300
2021-09-19 7431000 36998000 721100 1219000 481000 540200 1685000 4124000 355100 4939000 136000 6804000 630600 388700 816500 374400 4626000 1984000 2897000 1062000 1136000 1144000 281600 400900 184900 822700
2021-09-20 7460000 37019000 722200 1222000 482000 540800 1686000 4127000 355500 4948000 136200 6808000 632600 389300 816800 375500 4628000 1986000 2897000 1063000 1138000 1144000 282000 401200 186000 824200
2021-09-21 7491000 37050000 723600 1223000 483300 542000 1686000 4135000 355900 4954000 136500 6817000 635600 390000 816900 376700 4630000 1988000 2897000 1064000 1140000 1146000 282700 401500 187400 827600

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-15 to 2021-09-21

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-09-14 78544 21019830 1563143 1644832 4932998 33316755 4174216 5340656 3516043 2162294 2266066 7072825 2864534 6710636 41365161 96938 754242 472069 1053487 4497268 642269 380036 58146 125556 3449738 1463308 70504 236993 1578073 913528 390880 634289 716706 726974 512740 81173 1065941 673263 736322 466145 136175 1307724 123104 112064 1120339 237583 406212 2344936 1311518 303532 1354451 806597 138292 1112019 3870934 361077 814738 30356 608277 760401 213179 82463
2021-09-15 80070 21034000 1567000 1645000 4935000 33339000 4179000 5360000 3526000 2163000 2283000 7086000 2870000 6734000 41533000 97700 757900 473800 1056000 4506000 643900 380800 58310 125900 3449000 1471000 70940 238300 1582000 917300 393900 638700 720400 728300 513500 81610 1069000 676700 738600 468000 137100 1313000 123600 112500 1123000 238100 407500 2349000 1318000 305800 1358000 811500 139200 1118000 3904000 362200 818700 30490 611000 762600 214700 83190
2021-09-16 81500 21064000 1569000 1646000 4936000 33361000 4183000 5380000 3541000 2164000 2300000 7095000 2875000 6754000 41680000 98300 762300 475600 1059000 4513000 645300 381400 58410 126200 3463000 1478000 71630 239400 1586000 921400 394600 642900 724000 729400 514300 81980 1069000 677900 740700 471000 137700 1319000 124000 112800 1125000 238600 408500 2354000 1323000 307700 1362000 816100 139500 1122000 3920000 363100 821500 30630 613900 764100 216300 83630
2021-09-17 82990 21081000 1572000 1646000 4938000 33380000 4189000 5396000 3548000 2165000 2317000 7103000 2880000 6775000 41884000 98800 766000 477200 1061000 4520000 646900 382000 58490 126700 3485000 1486000 72370 240600 1590000 925600 397100 647100 726200 730300 515300 82320 1074000 679400 743000 473400 138400 1325000 124500 113100 1127000 239400 409700 2359000 1329000 309800 1366000 821300 139900 1128000 3936000 364100 824600 30770 616400 765900 218000 84180
2021-09-18 84320 21095000 1574000 1647000 4939000 33399000 4193000 5407000 3565000 2165000 2335000 7111000 2885000 6796000 41920000 99100 769400 478500 1064000 4525000 647300 382300 58500 127200 3503000 1488000 73110 241400 1591000 927400 397800 649100 726300 730500 516300 82650 1074000 680200 745000 474500 138400 1325000 124900 113300 1129000 239400 410000 2363000 1334000 310600 1369000 822800 139900 1130000 3941000 364600 825600 30940 616600 766000 219700 84360
2021-09-19 85750 21107000 1576000 1647000 4941000 33417000 4197000 5420000 3574000 2166000 2352000 7120000 2890000 6817000 41958000 99400 771100 479400 1067000 4530000 647500 382600 58510 127600 3522000 1491000 73900 242100 1593000 929300 398400 651100 727600 730700 517000 82740 1074000 680900 746600 476000 138400 1326000 125100 113500 1131000 239500 410300 2368000 1338000 311600 1373000 824300 139900 1134000 3943000 365000 826600 31080 616900 766000 221200 84530
2021-09-20 87060 21117000 1579000 1648000 4942000 33434000 4200000 5439000 3581000 2167000 2370000 7128000 2893000 6838000 42131000 100000 773200 480100 1069000 4535000 650500 383300 58770 127900 3538000 1499000 74550 243000 1597000 933700 399600 655700 728400 731900 517700 82820 1076000 682100 748200 479600 138700 1338000 125300 113800 1133000 240400 411500 2372000 1341000 313800 1376000 838400 140000 1143000 3951000 366000 831400 31200 619500 768400 222500 85000
2021-09-21 88490 21134000 1583000 1648000 4943000 33452000 4205000 5455000 3592000 2167000 2386000 7136000 2897000 6860000 42317000 100900 775400 481000 1072000 4540000 651800 384100 59070 128200 3554000 1512000 75190 244200 1603000 939000 400500 661300 731200 733400 518400 82950 1079000 684000 749700 481500 139300 1350000 125600 114200 1134000 241800 413300 2376000 1345000 316300 1379000 842600 140300 1152000 3963000 367300 833300 31360 623900 769500 223800 85640

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed