COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-04-18


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-19 to 2020-04-25

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-18 114217 842731 14671 37183 6288 6606 143342 7242 191726 3681 147969 2235 14758 175925 31589 8742 19685 8418 13822 7036 27404
2020-04-19 119000 861000 14800 38400 6400 6710 146000 7410 196000 3810 153000 2250 15600 179000 32700 9100 20100 8800 14400 7130 27700
2020-04-20 124000 879000 14900 39800 6500 6810 148000 7560 200000 3900 159000 2270 16600 182000 33600 9400 20600 9200 14900 7210 28000
2020-04-21 130000 896000 15000 41200 6590 6910 151000 7710 204000 3990 166000 2280 17700 185000 34600 9700 21100 9500 15400 7300 28300
2020-04-22 136000 913000 15100 42600 6680 7010 153000 7860 208000 4090 172000 2300 18900 188000 35600 10100 21600 9900 16000 7390 28600
2020-04-23 142000 930000 15200 44100 6780 7110 155000 8010 212000 4190 180000 2320 20100 192000 36600 10400 22000 10300 16500 7490 29000
2020-04-24 148000 947000 15400 45600 6880 7220 158000 8180 217000 4290 187000 2340 21500 195000 37700 10800 22600 10800 17100 7580 29300
2020-04-25 155000 963000 15500 47300 6980 7320 160000 8340 222000 4390 195000 2350 23000 198000 38800 11200 23100 11200 17700 7670 29600

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-19 to 2020-04-25

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
2020-04-18 6547 36658 34355 15722 6248 80868 5305 6875 6087 3034 82329 732197 30829 9433 17550 2666 25484 17014 29160 23580 36372 30717 81420 236763 11802
2020-04-19 6580 39900 36700 17100 6620 82300 5390 7400 6300 3200 87000 764000 32100 9800 18400 2830 26400 17700 30700 24100 38500 31600 85000 244000 12100
2020-04-20 6610 43100 39200 18700 7000 83700 5490 7900 6510 3330 91000 797000 33400 10200 19200 3000 27300 18400 32000 24500 40400 32600 88000 253000 12300
2020-04-21 6640 46600 41800 20400 7410 85100 5590 8500 6740 3470 96000 830000 34800 10500 20100 3180 28200 19100 33400 24900 42400 33600 91000 261000 12500
2020-04-22 6670 50400 44700 22400 7840 86600 5690 9100 6980 3610 101000 866000 36200 10900 20900 3370 29100 19800 34800 25300 44500 34600 95000 270000 12700
2020-04-23 6690 54500 47800 24500 8300 88100 5790 9800 7220 3750 106000 903000 37700 11300 21900 3570 30000 20600 36300 25800 46700 35600 98000 279000 12800
2020-04-24 6720 59000 51200 26800 8800 89600 5880 10500 7480 3910 112000 942000 39300 11800 22800 3780 31000 21400 37900 26200 49100 36700 102000 288000 13000
2020-04-25 6740 63800 54800 29400 9330 91200 5970 11300 7750 4070 118000 983000 40900 12200 23800 4010 32100 22200 39500 26700 51600 37800 106000 298000 13300

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-19 to 2020-04-25

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-18 114217 842731 14671 37183 6288 6606 143342 7242 191726 3681 147969 2235 14758 175925 31589 8742 19685 8418 13822 7036 27404
2020-04-19 118000 857000 14800 38200 6360 6690 146000 7400 195000 3790 153000 2250 15500 179000 32600 9100 20100 8700 14400 7120 27700
2020-04-20 122000 871000 14900 39400 6460 6780 148000 7560 199000 3890 158000 2260 16300 182000 33500 9400 20600 9100 14900 7210 28000
2020-04-21 127000 885000 15000 40500 6570 6880 150000 7720 203000 4000 162000 2270 17000 185000 34500 9800 21000 9400 15500 7300 28300
2020-04-22 132000 898000 15100 41700 6670 6970 152000 7880 206000 4110 166000 2280 17800 188000 35500 10200 21500 9800 16000 7390 28600
2020-04-23 137000 910000 15200 43000 6770 7060 154000 8050 210000 4230 171000 2290 18600 191000 36500 10500 22000 10200 16600 7470 28900
2020-04-24 142000 921000 15300 44300 6880 7150 157000 8220 214000 4340 176000 2300 19500 194000 37600 10900 22600 10600 17200 7570 29200
2020-04-25 147000 932000 15400 45600 6990 7250 159000 8390 218000 4470 181000 2310 20300 197000 38600 11300 23100 11000 17900 7660 29600

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-19 to 2020-04-25

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
2020-04-18 6547 36658 34355 15722 6248 80868 5305 6875 6087 3034 82329 732197 30829 9433 17550 2666 25484 17014 29160 23580 36372 30717 81420 236763 11802
2020-04-19 6580 40800 37100 17300 6550 82200 5390 7400 6270 3160 86000 761000 32100 9700 18300 2880 26200 17800 30500 24000 38200 31600 84000 244000 12000
2020-04-20 6620 45000 39900 19100 6890 83600 5460 8100 6460 3330 90000 790000 33300 10000 19100 3110 27100 18600 31900 24400 40100 32500 87000 251000 12300
2020-04-21 6650 49700 43000 21200 7250 85000 5530 8700 6660 3500 94000 820000 34500 10400 20000 3340 27900 19400 33300 24800 42000 33500 90000 259000 12500
2020-04-22 6680 54700 46400 23400 7630 86300 5600 9500 6860 3680 98000 850000 35800 10700 20800 3590 28800 20200 34700 25200 44000 34400 93000 266000 12700
2020-04-23 6710 60300 50100 26000 8030 87700 5670 10200 7070 3880 102000 880000 37100 11100 21800 3860 29700 21000 36200 25700 46100 35400 97000 274000 12900
2020-04-24 6740 66500 54100 28800 8450 89100 5730 11100 7290 4080 106000 912000 38400 11400 22700 4150 30700 21900 37700 26100 48400 36400 100000 282000 13200
2020-04-25 6760 73300 58400 31900 8890 90600 5790 12000 7510 4290 110000 945000 39800 11800 23700 4460 31700 22800 39300 26500 50700 37400 104000 290000 13400

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold green line in graphs) 2020-04-19 to 2020-04-27

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
2020-04-18 114217 842731 14671 37183 6288 6606 143342 7242 191726 3681 147969 2235 14758 175925 31589 8742 19685 8418 13822 7036 27404 6547 36658 34355 15722 6248 80868 5305 6875 6087 3034 82329 732197 30829 9433 17550 2666 25484 17014 29160 23580 36372 30717 81420 236763 11802
2020-04-19 116000 857000 14700 38000 6270 6660 145000 7400 197000 3710 154000 2250 15200 178000 32000 9000 19900 8620 14100 7090 27500 6590 38500 35500 16200 6430 82400 5400 7110 6260 3100 85000 755000 31700 9700 18200 2700 26200 17600 30100 23900 37200 31800 83900 243000 11800
2020-04-20 118000 870000 14800 39000 6330 6720 147000 7560 201000 3780 158000 2260 15400 180000 32500 9200 20200 8810 14500 7150 27600 6630 40200 36700 17000 6600 83800 5470 7410 6420 3190 89000 780000 32600 9900 18800 2810 26900 18200 31000 24200 38400 32700 86200 249000 11900
2020-04-21 119000 880000 14900 39700 6400 6760 149000 7720 206000 3820 161000 2270 15600 181000 32900 9500 20500 8950 14800 7210 27900 6660 41800 37900 17400 6740 85200 5530 7630 6550 3280 91000 801000 33400 10100 19300 2900 27500 18700 31800 24600 39400 33700 88000 255000 12000
2020-04-22 121000 889000 14900 40200 6460 6820 151000 7880 210000 3840 163000 2290 15800 182000 33300 9700 20700 9100 15200 7280 28000 6700 43300 38600 18100 6850 86600 5570 7660 6670 3340 94000 820000 34200 10200 19800 2990 28100 19200 32500 25000 40200 34500 89600 261000 12100
2020-04-23 122000 897000 15000 40800 6520 6880 153000 8050 213000 3890 165000 2300 15900 183000 33600 9900 20900 9210 15500 7340 28200 6730 44900 39700 18900 6980 87900 5620 7780 6800 3380 96000 838000 34900 10400 20200 3080 28700 19600 33000 25400 40800 35400 91100 265000 12200
2020-04-24 124000 903000 15000 41300 6570 6930 154000 8240 217000 3930 167000 2310 16000 184000 34000 10100 21000 9310 15800 7390 28400 6750 46100 40800 19400 7090 89100 5660 7860 6900 3430 98000 855000 35500 10500 20500 3140 29200 19900 33500 25700 41000 36300 92400 269000 12300
2020-04-25 124000 909000 15000 41600 6610 6980 155000 8430 221000 3990 169000 2320 16100 185000 34300 10300 21100 9410 16000 7440 28600 6780 47500 41800 20000 7140 90300 5690 7910 6990 3470 100000 871000 36100 10600 20900 3190 29700 20200 33900 26100 41500 37100 93700 273000 12400
2020-04-26 125000 914000 15000 42000 6620 7040 157000 8610 223000 4040 169000 2330 16100 187000 34500 10400 21300 9490 16200 7480 28700 6800 48000 42800 20300 7180 91400 5730 7990 7050 3500 101000 885000 36600 10700 21200 3230 30100 20500 34200 26400 41900 37800 94800 276000 12500
2020-04-27 125000 918000 15100 42500 6640 7090 158000 8780 226000 4060 170000 2330 16200 188000 34600 10500 21400 9570 16300 7530 28900 6820 49500 43500 20600 7190 92300 5750 7990 7120 3530 103000 899000 36900 10700 21400 3270 30400 20700 34600 26700 42200 38500 95600 279000 12600

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-04-18

UKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1003-2803-2603-2903-2503-2803-2804-0403-2704-0604-1204-0204-1303-2104-1004-0504-1004-1104-0903-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5885 29740 875 1458 287 284 6005 334 8156 181 12224 96 990 5702 1183 398 860 376 569 298 1205
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 22 11 15 27 25 25 24 42 22 30 27 35 21 28 28 33 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 14 11 14 15 25 14 24 27 25 24 17 29 19 23 25 30 19 12
Days since peak 8 21 23 20 24 21 21 14 22 12 6 16 5 28 8 13 8 7 9 22 26

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-04-18

AustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
Peak date03-28 -- -- -- --03-3104-02 --03-3103-2604-1104-0904-0304-0304-09 --04-0304-0704-1204-0404-1204-0304-0404-0404-02
Peak daily increment 411 3106 180 361 190 4735 31813 1329 402 949 1200 968 1457 1778 2049 1669 3852 9746 528
Days from 100 to peak 18 35 24 17 8 23 37 26 19 21 19 22 27 19 31 16 20 27 26
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 28 25 13 8 17 20 17 16 16 13 17 22 13 19 12 13 15 22
Days since peak 21 18 16 18 23 7 9 15 15 9 15 11 6 14 6 15 14 14 16

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed