COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-04-25


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-26 to 2020-05-02

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-25 148377 955695 15148 45325 6772 7352 156513 8445 223759 4475 160292 2506 2016 2443 18561 195351 37190 11273 23392 10635 18177 7499 28894
2020-04-26 153000 970000 15200 46400 6840 7430 158000 8620 228000 4590 162000 2530 2040 2520 19100 198000 37900 11600 23900 10900 19000 7560 29100
2020-04-27 158000 981000 15300 47400 6900 7520 160000 8780 232000 4700 163000 2560 2060 2610 19600 201000 38700 12000 24400 11300 20000 7630 29300
2020-04-28 163000 992000 15400 48400 6970 7610 162000 8950 236000 4830 164000 2580 2090 2700 20200 203000 39400 12300 24900 11600 21000 7700 29500
2020-04-29 168000 1003000 15400 49400 7040 7700 164000 9110 240000 4950 165000 2610 2110 2800 20700 206000 40200 12600 25400 11900 22100 7770 29700
2020-04-30 173000 1013000 15500 50400 7120 7790 165000 9280 245000 5080 167000 2630 2140 2900 21300 209000 40900 13000 25900 12300 23300 7840 29900
2020-05-01 178000 1023000 15600 51500 7190 7880 167000 9460 249000 5210 168000 2660 2160 3000 21900 211000 41700 13400 26400 12700 24500 7920 30100
2020-05-02 184000 1032000 15600 52600 7260 7980 169000 9640 253000 5350 169000 2690 2190 3110 22500 214000 42600 13700 27000 13100 25700 7990 30300

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-26 to 2020-05-02

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
2020-04-25 6694 59324 45491 26283 8607 89328 5742 13842 7294 4361 107773 938154 42347 12968 24582 3699 30831 22225 41777 26512 53348 37184 105523 282174 13484
2020-04-26 6710 64100 47000 28300 9000 90400 5800 15300 7460 4620 111000 971000 44600 13800 25400 3890 31600 22900 44600 26900 57000 38100 109000 290000 13800
2020-04-27 6720 68700 48800 30600 9500 91500 5850 16900 7610 4890 114000 1003000 47600 14500 26500 4100 32300 23700 47800 27300 60700 39000 112000 295000 14000
2020-04-28 6730 73600 50700 33200 10000 92600 5900 18600 7770 5180 118000 1037000 50800 15300 27600 4320 33000 24400 51200 27700 64700 39900 116000 300000 14200
2020-04-29 6740 78900 52700 35900 10500 93700 5950 20500 7930 5490 122000 1072000 54300 16100 28700 4550 33700 25200 55000 28100 68900 40800 119000 305000 14400
2020-04-30 6750 84600 54800 38900 11000 94800 5990 22700 8090 5820 126000 1109000 58000 17000 29900 4790 34500 26000 59100 28500 73500 41700 123000 310000 14700
2020-05-01 6760 90700 57000 42200 11600 96000 6020 25100 8260 6170 130000 1148000 61900 17900 31200 5050 35300 26800 63400 28900 78300 42700 127000 316000 14900
2020-05-02 6770 97200 59300 45800 12200 97100 6060 27800 8430 6540 134000 1189000 66100 18900 32500 5320 36100 27700 68100 29300 83500 43700 130000 322000 15200

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-26 to 2020-05-02

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-25 148377 955695 15148 45325 6772 7352 156513 8445 223759 4475 160292 2506 2016 2443 18561 195351 37190 11273 23392 10635 18177 7499 28894
2020-04-26 153000 967000 15200 46200 6840 7430 158000 8620 228000 4580 162000 2530 2040 2480 19100 198000 37900 11600 23800 10900 19000 7560 29100
2020-04-27 157000 979000 15300 47200 6900 7510 160000 8790 232000 4680 163000 2550 2060 2530 19600 200000 38500 11900 24300 11200 20000 7620 29300
2020-04-28 162000 991000 15400 48100 6960 7590 162000 8960 236000 4780 164000 2570 2070 2580 20100 203000 39200 12200 24800 11500 21000 7680 29500
2020-04-29 167000 1003000 15400 49100 7030 7670 163000 9140 240000 4890 165000 2590 2090 2630 20600 205000 39800 12500 25300 11800 22000 7730 29700
2020-04-30 171000 1014000 15500 50000 7090 7750 165000 9310 244000 5000 166000 2610 2110 2680 21100 208000 40500 12800 25800 12100 23100 7790 29900
2020-05-01 176000 1024000 15600 51000 7150 7820 167000 9500 248000 5110 167000 2630 2130 2740 21700 210000 41200 13200 26300 12400 24300 7850 30200
2020-05-02 181000 1034000 15600 52000 7220 7910 168000 9680 253000 5220 167000 2650 2150 2790 22200 213000 41900 13500 26800 12700 25500 7900 30400

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-26 to 2020-05-02

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
2020-04-25 6694 59324 45491 26283 8607 89328 5742 13842 7294 4361 107773 938154 42347 12968 24582 3699 30831 22225 41777 26512 53348 37184 105523 282174 13484
2020-04-26 6710 64000 46900 28600 9000 90300 5790 15200 7450 4640 111000 970000 45100 13900 25000 3940 31500 22900 44400 26900 56900 38100 109000 289000 13700
2020-04-27 6720 69000 48300 31000 9400 91300 5840 17000 7600 4900 114000 1005000 47600 14800 25600 4170 32100 23500 47200 27200 60900 39000 112000 295000 14000
2020-04-28 6730 75000 49700 33600 9900 92300 5890 18800 7750 5180 117000 1042000 50300 15800 26200 4410 32800 24200 50200 27600 65300 39900 115000 301000 14200
2020-04-29 6740 80000 51200 36500 10300 93400 5940 20700 7910 5480 120000 1083000 53100 16900 26800 4670 33400 24900 53500 27900 70000 40900 119000 307000 14500
2020-04-30 6750 87000 52700 39700 10800 94400 5980 22900 8070 5790 123000 1126000 56100 18000 27400 4940 34100 25600 56900 28300 75000 41800 123000 313000 14700
2020-05-01 6750 93000 54300 43200 11400 95400 6030 25300 8230 6120 126000 1172000 59300 19200 28100 5230 34800 26400 60500 28700 80300 42800 126000 320000 15000
2020-05-02 6760 101000 55900 47000 11900 96500 6070 28000 8400 6470 130000 1220000 62600 20500 28800 5530 35500 27100 64400 29000 86100 43800 130000 327000 15300

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold green line in graphs) 2020-04-26 to 2020-05-04

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
2020-04-25 148377 955695 15148 45325 6772 7352 156513 8445 223759 4475 160292 2506 2016 2443 18561 195351 37190 11273 23392 10635 18177 7499 28894 6694 59324 45491 26283 8607 89328 5742 13842 7294 4361 107773 938154 42347 12968 24582 3699 30831 22225 41777 26512 53348 37184 105523 282174 13484
2020-04-26 152000 962000 15200 46000 6840 7450 158000 8560 225000 4600 160000 2570 2040 2570 18900 198000 37700 11500 23700 10900 18900 7580 29000 6720 62200 46800 27500 8800 90200 5770 14700 7410 4590 110000 958000 44300 13400 25800 3800 31400 22700 43700 26900 55800 38000 108000 283000 13600
2020-04-27 156000 969000 15300 46600 6890 7520 159000 8690 228000 4710 160000 2610 2050 2630 19300 200000 38200 11700 24000 11100 19500 7640 29200 6740 65500 47700 28700 9100 91000 5800 15700 7500 4780 113000 980000 46100 14000 26500 3890 31900 23200 45600 27200 58400 38700 111000 287000 13800
2020-04-28 159000 975000 15300 47200 6940 7580 161000 8830 230000 4790 160000 2650 2070 2730 19700 202000 38600 11900 24200 11300 20100 7690 29300 6760 68300 48600 29800 9300 91700 5840 16800 7590 4980 115000 996000 47700 14500 26800 3990 32200 23700 47400 27500 60700 39400 114000 290000 13900
2020-04-29 161000 982000 15400 47600 6980 7640 162000 8940 231000 4880 160000 2680 2100 2800 20000 204000 39000 12100 24500 11500 20500 7730 29400 6780 70800 49500 30800 9500 92400 5860 17800 7660 5100 117000 1012000 49100 14900 27300 4070 32700 24100 49100 27800 63000 39900 115000 293000 14100
2020-04-30 163000 988000 15500 48100 7020 7690 163000 9060 233000 4960 160000 2720 2120 2850 20200 205000 39300 12300 24700 11600 20900 7770 29400 6800 73200 50200 31700 9600 93000 5900 18700 7730 5220 117000 1026000 50400 15200 27800 4140 33100 24400 50400 28100 65200 40400 117000 295000 14200
2020-05-01 165000 994000 15500 48500 7050 7740 164000 9150 235000 5020 160000 2750 2140 2890 20400 206000 39600 12400 24900 11800 21300 7800 29500 6810 75400 50900 32400 9800 93500 5930 19600 7790 5320 119000 1037000 51500 15600 28200 4210 33400 24700 51500 28300 67400 40800 119000 297000 14300
2020-05-02 166000 1000000 15600 48900 7080 7790 165000 9240 236000 5080 161000 2790 2160 2940 20400 208000 39800 12500 25100 11900 21700 7830 29600 6810 77700 51400 33000 9900 94000 5960 20400 7840 5440 120000 1049000 52600 16100 28500 4270 33600 25000 52600 28400 69600 41100 120000 299000 14400
2020-05-03 168000 1005000 15600 49200 7110 7830 166000 9310 238000 5140 162000 2820 2180 2990 20700 209000 40100 12600 25300 12000 22200 7860 29600 6820 79500 51900 33700 10100 94500 5990 21200 7890 5540 121000 1060000 53600 16400 28900 4320 33900 25200 53400 28600 71500 41400 121000 301000 14500
2020-05-04 170000 1011000 15600 49600 7130 7890 167000 9390 239000 5190 163000 2830 2190 3030 20900 210000 40300 12700 25400 12100 22500 7880 29700 6820 81100 52300 34200 10200 95000 6020 21700 7940 5620 122000 1069000 54400 16600 29200 4360 34100 25500 54000 28700 73200 41700 122000 303000 14500

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-04-25

UKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1003-2803-2604-1003-2503-2803-2804-0403-2704-0604-1204-0203-3004-1004-1303-2104-1004-1704-1004-11 --03-2703-23
Peak daily increment 6041 29741 875 1466 287 284 6005 333 8155 181 13266 96 76 132 974 5701 1182 401 924 378 298 1205
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 34 11 15 27 25 25 24 42 22 11 20 30 27 35 33 28 28 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 26 11 14 15 25 14 24 26 25 15 22 24 17 29 31 23 25 19 12
Days since peak 15 28 30 15 31 28 28 21 29 19 13 23 26 15 12 35 15 8 15 14 29 33

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-04-25

AustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
Peak date03-28 --04-20 -- --03-3104-02 --03-31 --04-1104-09 -- --04-22 --04-0304-07 --04-04 --04-0404-0404-0404-02
Peak daily increment 411 1859 3106 180 361 4800 31651 1208 1194 986 1782 1658 3845 9744 528
Days from 100 to peak 18 40 35 24 17 23 37 34 19 22 19 17 20 27 26
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 31 28 25 13 17 20 28 13 17 13 13 13 15 22
Days since peak 28 5 25 23 25 14 16 3 22 18 21 21 21 21 23

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed