COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-01


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-02 to 2020-07-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-01 313483 1272539 17873 61509 5154 8152 12046 195893 249659 194985 2831 240760 50273 34775 42454 27296 69692 31851
2020-07-02 314200 1274000 17890 61570 5212 8155 12160 196200 250000 195100 2874 240900 50330 34950 42750 27540 71860 31870
2020-07-03 315000 1277000 17900 61650 5310 8164 12330 196500 250300 195400 2925 240900 50410 35210 43080 27860 74270 31890
2020-07-04 315800 1280000 17920 61730 5425 8183 12510 196600 250600 195600 2978 241000 50460 35470 43400 28170 75430 31920
2020-07-05 316600 1282000 17950 61800 5526 8198 12700 196800 251000 195700 3031 241100 50520 35730 43720 28480 76490 31970
2020-07-06 317400 1284000 17990 61880 5627 8211 12850 196900 251300 196100 3086 241200 50570 35990 44040 28770 78850 32010
2020-07-07 318200 1287000 18020 61960 5749 8230 13000 197200 251600 196300 3141 241300 50610 36250 44370 29070 80870 32060
2020-07-08 318900 1289000 18050 62040 5874 8244 13140 197400 251900 196500 3197 241500 50650 36520 44700 29400 82960 32100

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-02 to 2020-07-08

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-07-01 8001 1448753 106288 282043 98090 604641 57770 230211 231770 288477 38511 653479 159333 201098 2686258 38442 20491 84105 238681 33012 46363 10365 11468 158830 77199 29510 6369 143962 45952 14830 15838 60175 108530 67918 3292 66754 36635 18793 27900 66751 3615 19134 171285 11368 19101 394079 52865 14119 8931 91775 37919 6826 43846 172368 18361 63203 33264 29199 2979
2020-07-02 8019 1470000 106500 285200 100500 628800 58470 232400 235700 291300 39560 659200 166600 202400 2754000 39650 20950 87300 246800 33160 46410 10390 11520 165300 79150 29770 6528 144300 46250 15100 15980 60330 108600 68150 3304 66910 36860 18970 28330 67170 3632 19270 171400 11610 19630 394600 53560 14570 9090 91890 39350 6873 44420 180800 18860 63670 33950 29410 3041
2020-07-03 8048 1514000 106700 289500 103900 657300 59630 234700 240500 294400 40810 665300 174900 203700 2844000 40980 21590 91900 256000 33430 46490 10430 11570 173200 81840 30120 6776 145000 46580 15560 16180 60760 108800 68460 3334 67100 37230 19230 28850 68920 3657 19420 171600 11910 20260 395200 54490 15110 9290 92400 41170 6932 45750 189600 19490 64170 34740 29830 3114
2020-07-04 8090 1548000 107000 293900 107500 687700 60920 236800 245500 297500 42110 671400 183900 205000 2936000 42300 22170 96700 263900 33640 46560 10470 11640 181600 84480 30470 7052 145600 46910 15940 16390 61310 108900 68820 3375 67390 37590 19490 29360 70640 3686 19560 171700 12220 21070 395800 55320 15680 9490 92900 43230 7003 47100 198200 20140 64670 35580 30370 3188
2020-07-05 8122 1575000 107200 298400 112000 718900 62020 238800 250500 300700 43370 677400 193000 206300 3028000 43440 22740 101600 272200 33870 46640 10510 11710 190000 86590 30830 7360 146200 47240 16350 16560 62120 109000 69150 3409 67650 37960 19760 29860 72120 3716 19700 171900 12530 21780 396300 56150 16240 9690 93290 45210 7064 48350 205400 20760 65180 36330 30800 3259
2020-07-06 8155 1595000 107400 302900 115400 749500 63090 241000 255200 303800 44800 683300 202300 207600 3123000 45110 23260 106400 283000 34030 46710 10540 11780 198300 88700 31140 7685 146700 47570 16850 16740 62870 109100 69470 3435 67880 38300 20030 30390 73300 3743 19840 172100 12800 22410 396900 56950 16770 9900 93780 47160 7118 50020 214800 21380 65690 37080 31050 3333
2020-07-07 8191 1633000 107600 307500 118900 781600 64280 243100 260400 307000 46170 688900 211700 208900 3221000 46410 23860 112000 294000 34200 46790 10570 11840 207100 92510 31450 8022 147300 47910 17220 16940 63730 109200 69760 3459 68130 38630 20300 30960 74400 3769 19980 172200 13110 23110 397500 57750 17350 10110 94290 49210 7169 51600 225500 22040 66220 37930 31400 3402
2020-07-08 8223 1678000 107900 312200 122400 815800 65440 245300 265800 310300 47490 694400 222500 210300 3326000 47940 24490 117700 304000 34420 46870 10620 11910 216400 95960 31790 8378 147900 48240 17750 17150 64630 109300 70090 3486 68390 38950 20580 31510 76020 3800 20120 172400 13440 23830 398100 58620 18100 10320 94680 51370 7245 53120 236800 22750 66740 38730 31820 3486

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-02 to 2020-07-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-01 313483 1272539 17873 61509 5154 8152 12046 195893 249659 194985 2831 240760 50273 34775 42454 27296 69692 31851
2020-07-02 314100 1276000 17910 61580 5267 8178 12210 196500 250000 195800 2896 241200 50410 35100 42770 27600 72930 31960
2020-07-03 314700 1280000 17950 61660 5373 8226 12380 197100 250300 196400 2960 241400 50500 35420 43080 27880 75850 32060
2020-07-04 315300 1284000 17990 61730 5480 8289 12550 197400 250600 197000 3024 241500 50560 35730 43390 28170 77500 32160
2020-07-05 315900 1287000 18030 61800 5582 8334 12720 197700 250900 197500 3089 241700 50620 36040 43700 28450 79050 32250
2020-07-06 316500 1291000 18070 61870 5685 8368 12890 198000 251300 198100 3154 241900 50690 36350 44010 28730 82000 32340
2020-07-07 317100 1295000 18110 61940 5789 8414 13070 198500 251600 198600 3220 242000 50740 36660 44320 29010 84430 32440
2020-07-08 317700 1298000 18140 62010 5893 8440 13240 198800 251900 199100 3287 242200 50770 36980 44630 29290 86550 32530

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-02 to 2020-07-08

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-07-01 8001 1448753 106288 282043 98090 604641 57770 230211 231770 288477 38511 653479 159333 201098 2686258 38442 20491 84105 238681 33012 46363 10365 11468 158830 77199 29510 6369 143962 45952 14830 15838 60175 108530 67918 3292 66754 36635 18793 27900 66751 3615 19134 171285 11368 19101 394079 52865 14119 8931 91775 37919 6826 43846 172368 18361 63203 33264 29199 2979
2020-07-02 8075 1460000 106700 286100 100900 631400 58930 232600 236700 290800 39680 659800 167100 202300 2770000 39800 20990 88600 248000 33240 46450 10390 11530 168800 80540 29820 6870 144700 46290 15200 16020 60950 109000 68280 3304 67040 37000 19020 28490 67170 3646 19280 171700 11730 19820 394700 53750 14470 9120 91840 39290 6882 45310 181300 18830 63710 34100 29660 3050
2020-07-03 8145 1506000 107100 290200 103700 659700 60040 235000 241400 293100 40890 665900 175200 203600 2863000 41170 21480 93300 258200 33450 46540 10420 11600 177000 83760 30130 7370 145300 46630 15630 16200 61680 109300 68630 3336 67290 37350 19240 29050 68940 3676 19420 172100 12060 20520 395300 54620 14840 9300 92500 41090 6936 47000 190500 19430 64210 34900 30210 3124
2020-07-04 8215 1540000 107500 294300 106400 690100 61170 237400 246200 295500 42110 672000 183500 204800 2952000 42530 21970 98300 267000 33660 46630 10440 11660 185600 86550 30430 7900 146000 46960 16070 16390 62450 109700 68980 3381 67560 37700 19450 29610 70610 3706 19550 172400 12380 21220 395900 55480 15210 9490 93050 43010 6989 48750 199900 19980 64710 35680 30770 3199
2020-07-05 8281 1570000 107800 298400 109000 721400 62270 239700 250900 297800 43380 678100 192300 206000 3042000 43520 22460 103400 275400 33860 46720 10470 11730 193700 88640 30730 8450 146600 47290 16530 16570 63170 109900 69320 3412 67810 38040 19670 30170 71970 3736 19690 172800 12680 21910 396500 56330 15610 9670 93390 44780 7042 50570 209800 20470 65200 36500 31190 3277
2020-07-06 8348 1592000 108200 302600 111700 751800 63380 242100 255600 300200 44680 684100 201500 207200 3133000 45250 22950 108800 288600 34060 46800 10490 11790 201100 91090 31040 9040 147300 47620 17010 16750 63890 110100 69670 3434 68050 38380 19890 30720 73230 3765 19830 173100 12970 22620 397100 57190 16010 9850 93930 46430 7094 52460 220200 20980 65700 37330 31420 3357
2020-07-07 8415 1628000 108600 306800 114500 783200 64500 244500 260400 302600 46010 690200 211100 208400 3230000 46520 23440 114500 301500 34260 46890 10520 11850 209000 95750 31350 9670 147900 47950 17500 16930 64620 110300 70010 3464 68300 38730 20110 31290 74600 3795 19970 173500 13240 23330 397600 58060 16430 10040 94550 48390 7147 54420 231000 21460 66190 38170 31940 3440
2020-07-08 8482 1670000 109000 311000 117200 816200 65640 246800 265200 305000 47380 696400 221200 209700 3333000 47910 23950 120400 313600 34460 46970 10540 11910 216600 99630 31660 10340 148600 48280 18000 17110 65350 110400 70360 3496 68550 39080 20330 31850 76040 3824 20110 173800 13510 24050 398200 58930 16870 10220 95060 50360 7200 56460 242300 22120 66690 39020 32430 3524

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-02 to 2020-07-10

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-07-01 313483 1272539 17873 61509 5154 8152 12046 195893 249659 194985 2831 240760 50273 34775 42454 27296 69692 31851 8001 1448753 106288 282043 98090 604641 57770 230211 231770 288477 38511 653479 159333 201098 2686258 38442 20491 84105 238681 33012 46363 10365 11468 158830 77199 29510 6369 143962 45952 14830 15838 60175 108530 67918 3292 66754 36635 18793 27900 66751 3615 19134 171285 11368 19101 394079 52865 14119 8931 91775 37919 6826 43846 172368 18361 63203 33264 29199 2979
2020-07-02 314400 1276000 17870 61560 5188 8155 12270 196400 249900 195200 2917 241100 50360 34990 42770 27650 70720 31900 8067 1465000 106600 285400 101100 622500 58640 234700 235700 291000 39090 657900 163900 202500 2727000 39460 20940 86800 243500 33120 46450 10380 11520 165200 78490 29610 6525 144200 46180 15140 15990 60180 108700 68170 3301 66910 36800 19330 28410 67960 3627 19270 171400 11580 19730 394700 53760 14680 9070 91940 39260 6875 44330 178300 18880 63650 33930 29670 3034
2020-07-03 314900 1279000 17910 61590 5291 8193 12480 196800 250200 195500 2977 241300 50400 35180 43100 27920 71840 31950 8153 1491000 106800 289200 104200 640700 59660 237500 240100 293400 39820 663700 172000 203700 2774000 40370 21420 90300 248000 33300 46510 10400 11570 175900 80010 29850 6670 144900 46440 15450 16170 60490 108800 68430 3324 67280 37110 19550 29020 69310 3647 19380 171400 11740 20380 395300 54680 15080 9270 92440 40970 6917 45310 185300 19310 64090 34540 30140 3088
2020-07-04 315200 1283000 17970 61630 5385 8214 12690 197200 250500 195700 3018 241600 50450 35370 43400 28180 72260 32000 8241 1513000 107000 291800 107300 656800 60740 239100 243900 295800 40460 668500 178600 204700 2814000 40870 21770 93300 252700 33460 46560 10420 11610 181900 81330 30060 6839 145300 46690 15730 16320 61310 108900 68670 3345 67640 37350 19760 29680 70450 3661 19490 171500 11850 20840 395900 55480 15330 9430 93010 42210 6954 46000 190600 19640 64510 35030 30330 3134
2020-07-05 315500 1285000 18030 61640 5449 8236 12890 197600 250800 195900 3052 241900 50500 35550 43650 28470 72660 32050 8320 1534000 107200 293700 109900 666000 61730 241600 248300 297700 41050 673000 181200 205700 2855000 41390 22110 96100 257300 33570 46600 10430 11650 185400 82100 30230 6968 145800 46910 15910 16480 62030 109000 68880 3369 67990 37610 19980 30350 71370 3667 19590 171500 12090 21260 396400 56170 15660 9560 93510 42870 6986 46710 194500 20010 64900 35490 30590 3180
2020-07-06 315700 1288000 18080 61660 5509 8252 13100 197900 251100 196100 3078 242100 50550 35680 43880 28650 73290 32100 8407 1552000 107400 295800 112600 676700 62400 243000 251700 299100 41370 677700 186600 206600 2855000 41790 22270 98500 258700 33640 46620 10450 11690 191900 82740 30320 7041 146200 47110 16060 16640 62280 109100 69050 3387 68330 37840 20180 31110 72180 3671 19660 171500 12250 21610 396800 56550 15910 9680 93920 44150 7012 47200 197000 20250 65280 35880 30740 3222
2020-07-07 315700 1292000 18140 61670 5578 8266 13310 198200 251400 196200 3103 242300 50590 35870 44030 28900 73450 32170 8482 1579000 107600 296600 115000 690100 63000 244300 254600 300300 42080 681100 194800 207000 2878000 42310 22440 101900 262800 33700 46640 10460 11710 202500 83610 30370 7106 146500 47230 16180 16750 62830 109200 69200 3403 68630 38020 20220 31630 73210 3674 19730 171500 12280 21720 397200 57000 16130 9840 94180 45070 7032 47830 199500 20550 65600 36500 30870 3261
2020-07-08 315700 1295000 18210 61690 5641 8281 13500 198600 251600 196400 3118 242500 50620 36020 44050 29070 73850 32200 8550 1598000 107800 297200 117400 698500 63620 245300 257800 301400 42580 684400 196800 207300 2899000 42700 22690 104700 265500 33750 46660 10460 11730 205400 84320 30500 7206 146800 47330 16320 16840 63120 109300 69350 3420 68820 38170 20380 32300 74110 3675 19800 171500 12280 21800 397600 57500 16390 9950 94210 46140 7047 48390 203100 20810 65890 36960 30960 3309
2020-07-09 315700 1297000 18260 61690 5719 8291 13660 198900 251800 196700 3163 242800 50630 36210 44210 29320 74210 32260 8577 1619000 107900 297800 119600 706500 64300 249000 261000 302400 43100 687400 201800 207500 2917000 43260 23000 105500 268700 33750 46670 10470 11750 212300 85510 30540 7313 146900 47420 16440 16910 63160 109400 69470 3427 69000 38280 20560 32860 75040 3676 19840 171500 12410 21890 397600 58170 16620 10060 94250 47130 7056 48890 206800 21110 66120 37530 31280 3344
2020-07-10 315700 1299000 18310 61690 5795 8301 13770 199100 252000 196900 3237 243000 50660 36350 44210 29410 74900 32330 8619 1646000 108000 299400 121500 712800 64890 249300 265600 303600 43780 689400 209200 207500 2949000 44240 23410 109600 273300 33750 46670 10480 11760 223200 86690 30610 7406 146900 47470 16560 16980 63360 109400 69590 3437 69240 38390 20650 33350 75990 3677 19860 171500 12570 21900 397800 58870 16860 10190 94250 47990 7069 49410 209800 21400 66330 37970 31440 3373

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-07-01

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1004-0203-2604-15 --03-2804-0303-2704-0603-3004-0404-1204-2106-2704-1004-1003-2403-3106-0804-1004-09 --03-2603-27
Peak daily increment 6401 29656 810 1470 278 283 5660 316 8055 146 19785 86 92 105 1116 5649 1079 421 830 358 240 1139
Days from 100 to peak 36 37 18 38 15 22 25 28 26 22 42 40 100 20 27 30 25 85 28 26 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 21 24 13 32 14 21 14 27 17 22 24 44 104 23 21 20 19 82 23 23 18 17
Last total 313483 1272539 17873 61509 5154 8152 12046 195893 12794 249659 7236 194985 3432 2831 4157 25477 240760 50273 34775 42454 27296 69692 8896 31851
Last daily increment 829 4581 107 82 165 47 92 475 26 388 22 612 23 54 2 4 182 0 382 313 326 1241 17 137
Last week 5503 24551 396 502 746 211 1176 2522 158 2173 64 2975 111 348 34 72 1054 359 1656 2039 2010 5802 108 423
Days since peak 82 90 97 77 95 89 96 86 93 88 80 71 4 82 82 99 92 23 82 83 97 96

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-07-01

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date03-28 --05-0306-17 -- -- --04-0106-2505-30 --05-09 --04-14 -- -- -- -- --04-2404-2005-0104-26 -- --05-01 --05-1205-01 --04-1204-0604-2405-0605-2204-0605-2406-2606-22 --04-1805-0105-0104-08 --06-2703-3104-19 -- --04-09 --05-09 -- -- --05-26 -- -- --
Peak daily increment 359 1983 32089 2861 5300 6110 10903 4816 729 1012 190 197 512 2692 668 242 1478 3307 1017 48 1624 673 308 1224 94 441 89 4272 795 9432 1004 1624 148 1076
Days from 100 to peak 18 51 93 36 100 72 52 27 40 30 39 32 39 58 41 20 21 40 48 59 21 64 97 93 19 33 38 24 99 20 31 23 39 68
Days from peak/2 to peak 15 43 48 29 79 53 34 19 35 27 40 32 34 48 37 19 15 30 41 65 15 58 95 86 23 29 41 16 93 12 26 16 41 60
Last total 8001 1448753 106288 282043 98090 604641 57770 230211 231770 288477 38511 653479 159333 201098 2686258 38442 20491 84105 238681 33012 46363 10365 11468 158830 77199 29510 6369 143962 45952 14830 15838 60175 108530 67918 3292 66754 36635 18793 27900 66751 3615 19134 5801 171285 11368 19101 394079 52865 14119 8931 91775 37919 6826 43846 172368 18361 63203 33264 29199 2979
Last daily increment 81 46712 191 2650 2821 19160 1385 2549 5681 3264 997 6550 8124 1192 50655 906 435 4878 7263 314 53 38 32 6541 2618 439 253 826 358 460 216 2082 0 359 41 423 415 34 653 1424 39 131 20 260 126 645 625 1076 362 275 636 1520 62 1658 9308 393 416 518 540 79
Last week 406 220639 1825 22979 20777 114240 7583 15115 28819 19875 5442 40331 40958 7983 263959 5689 3364 20824 37569 1549 629 206 509 44942 10744 2146 1505 4567 2297 1723 1234 6770 1035 2141 224 2116 2591 1318 3384 9279 222 955 165 1795 1062 4242 3664 5214 2171 1363 3634 8897 347 6689 37810 2596 3257 2946 2972 285
Days since peak 95 59 14 91 6 32 53 78 68 72 61 66 61 50 61 80 86 68 56 40 86 38 5 9 74 61 61 84 4 92 73 83 53 36

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed