COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-15


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-07-15

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-15 --03-2804-0303-2704-0603-3004-0404-1204-21 --04-1004-1003-2403-3106-0804-10 --06-0303-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4724 29651 810 1470 278 283 5661 316 8058 146 19785 86 105 1116 5649 1079 426 830 1337 240 1139
Days from 100 to peak 36 37 18 38 15 22 25 28 26 22 42 40 20 27 30 25 85 28 88 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 14 21 14 27 17 22 24 44 23 21 20 19 82 23 82 18 17
Last total 291911 1327622 19154 62872 7877 9020 13475 200890 13092 257494 7296 200338 3910 3953 4263 25683 243506 51252 38721 47426 34226 76492 9011 33148
Last daily increment 538 5082 133 91 232 74 134 434 31 875 -5 829 27 126 5 13 162 106 264 375 641 491 10 132
Last week 4290 24560 539 662 1205 433 556 1889 176 4438 23 2374 238 537 43 118 1143 454 1770 2149 3437 2159 46 562
Days since peak 99 104 111 91 109 103 110 100 107 102 94 85 96 96 113 106 37 96 42 111 110

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-07-15

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date03-2807-1005-0306-17 -- --07-0904-01 --05-3007-0905-09 --04-14 -- -- --07-07 --04-2404-2005-0104-2607-12 -- -- --05-12 -- -- -- --04-2405-0605-2204-0605-24 -- -- -- -- --05-0105-0104-08 -- --03-3107-03 -- --04-0907-1205-09 -- --07-1205-26 -- -- --
Peak daily increment 359 38878 1984 31376 1855 2861 5879 1742 10906 4816 3522 729 1012 190 197 10961 2693 3307 1017 48 1624 673 441 89 4272 9432 2263 1624 1770 148 518 1076
Days from 100 to peak 18 170 51 92 116 36 73 115 52 27 108 40 30 39 32 120 58 40 48 59 21 65 34 38 24 20 106 23 113 39 113 68
Days from peak/2 to peak 15 90 43 48 104 29 53 104 34 19 95 35 27 40 32 104 48 30 41 65 15 59 29 41 16 12 97 16 104 41 110 60
Last total 10810 1966748 110693 321205 159898 968857 80094 264561 317635 337751 58850 745197 311049 215940 3497847 58225 29248 131354 354885 38137 47394 11026 12933 301478 116487 36497 12448 156652 53370 20349 20674 84129 111962 75016 3575 74550 43648 26763 38567 2096 91837 4565 21861 6113 175633 14904 30468 404006 69311 22814 13081 102269 62245 7652 66231 289837 24880 73527 42919 38727 4557
Last daily increment 323 39924 343 1712 5621 32676 1522 2388 6149 3884 1305 6410 12757 947 66273 1784 557 3257 8674 469 107 80 78 10177 3479 662 729 1191 685 462 462 2087 213 756 11 1063 570 738 1025 144 1837 72 260 22 362 326 849 831 1316 1074 276 1003 1856 80 2231 10260 356 1084 758 821 150
Last week 1436 210969 2037 14989 31260 175055 9358 14103 35352 21303 7096 38957 72710 5978 379901 9637 4131 18683 52401 2630 412 347 504 69022 19005 3265 3020 6251 3795 2564 2433 12135 1439 3569 92 3833 3569 3311 4976 630 12181 494 1361 141 2028 1587 5564 4493 7980 4317 1893 4727 11554 316 10733 53296 2851 5539 4483 4819 731
Days since peak 109 5 73 28 6 105 46 6 67 92 8 82 86 75 80 3 64 82 70 54 100 52 75 75 98 106 12 97 3 67 3 50

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-16 to 2020-07-22

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-15 291911 1327622 19154 62872 7877 9020 13475 200890 257494 200338 3910 3953 243506 51252 38721 47426 34226 76492 33148
2020-07-16 291900 1331000 19250 62960 8300 9082 13560 201500 258500 200400 3972 4099 243800 51300 38990 47760 35240 78270 33240
2020-07-17 292400 1334000 19330 63050 8650 9141 13630 201800 259300 200800 4026 4249 244000 51350 39250 48090 36260 78720 33330
2020-07-18 293100 1338000 19420 63140 8940 9200 13710 202100 260100 201200 4080 4398 244200 51420 39510 48410 37340 78720 33420
2020-07-19 293600 1342000 19510 63230 9080 9258 13790 202300 260800 201600 4130 4553 244400 51500 39770 48740 38260 78720 33510
2020-07-20 294100 1345000 19590 63310 9390 9315 13870 202500 261500 202000 4181 4714 244500 51550 40030 49060 39110 79480 33600
2020-07-21 295000 1349000 19680 63400 9730 9373 13950 202700 262200 202500 4232 4880 244600 51590 40300 49390 40170 79570 33690
2020-07-22 295500 1353000 19760 63490 10010 9431 14020 203100 262900 202900 4283 5053 244800 51680 40560 49710 41200 80160 33780

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-16 to 2020-07-22

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-07-15 10810 1966748 110693 321205 159898 968857 80094 264561 317635 337751 58850 745197 311049 215940 3497847 58225 29248 131354 354885 38137 47394 11026 12933 301478 116487 36497 12448 156652 53370 20349 20674 84129 111962 75016 74550 43648 26763 38567 2096 91837 4565 21861 175633 14904 30468 404006 69311 22814 13081 102269 62245 7652 66231 289837 24880 73527 42919 38727 4557
2020-07-16 11050 2009000 111000 323000 168900 1011000 81000 266800 323500 341100 60110 751700 329500 216900 3600000 60250 29860 135500 367800 38550 47470 11070 13030 304500 122500 36950 13100 157700 54200 20780 21050 85900 112100 75780 74550 44130 27570 39330 2237 92300 4790 22050 175900 15360 30780 404700 70470 23720 13430 102600 63730 7712 69080 306500 25320 74410 43870 39610 4873
2020-07-17 11280 2055000 111300 325000 176400 1053000 81900 269100 329200 344400 61270 758000 346300 217900 3712000 62320 30460 139800 378200 39110 47540 11110 13120 315900 129600 37400 13760 158700 54980 21460 21490 88740 112300 76470 74550 44600 28410 40060 2389 94600 4976 22220 176200 15860 31750 405300 71610 24630 13790 103500 65160 7769 71900 319200 25760 75270 44900 40790 5105
2020-07-18 11520 2093000 111500 327200 183800 1098000 82810 271300 334900 347700 62440 764300 365200 218800 3818000 64200 31060 142700 386700 39470 47610 11160 13210 327100 135300 37830 14460 159700 55740 21890 21960 90650 112600 77160 74550 45060 29140 40790 2503 96400 5178 22390 176500 16310 32700 405900 72750 25590 14160 104200 66620 7823 74200 332400 26190 76140 45930 42050 5345
2020-07-19 11750 2116000 111800 329300 191600 1145000 83710 273500 340600 351000 63590 770600 381500 219800 3932000 65880 31650 145600 397700 39810 47680 11190 13300 339900 140700 38270 15180 160700 56480 22290 22450 92030 112800 77810 74610 45510 29650 41510 2602 98100 5381 22560 176700 16760 33520 406600 73870 26560 14550 104700 68050 7877 75990 344600 26630 76990 46980 43210 5511
2020-07-20 11980 2135000 112100 331600 199800 1185000 84620 275700 346300 354200 64740 776800 399800 220700 4045000 68240 32240 147300 408000 40120 47760 11230 13390 350200 147300 38710 15930 161700 57220 22990 22950 94120 112900 78470 74730 45970 30290 42230 2710 99800 5636 22730 177000 17270 34230 407200 75010 27580 14940 105200 69500 7931 79460 357000 27080 77850 48040 44120 5739
2020-07-21 12220 2177000 112400 333800 208300 1231000 85540 277900 352000 357500 65890 783100 416500 221700 4170000 70280 32840 151600 423500 40500 47830 11270 13480 359600 153900 39150 16720 162600 57960 23280 23470 96650 113200 79130 75060 46420 31420 42960 2846 101800 5829 22890 177300 17740 35240 407800 76150 28650 15350 106100 70960 7985 81850 372400 27520 78720 49120 45410 5920
2020-07-22 12450 2219000 112700 336000 217200 1282000 86460 280100 357800 360800 67060 789400 434900 222600 4302000 72690 33440 155000 436300 40950 47900 11310 13570 369900 159200 39590 17560 163600 58710 23930 24000 99570 113400 79790 75860 46880 32400 43690 2964 103500 5939 23060 177500 18200 36030 408400 77300 29750 15770 106900 72440 8040 85000 387500 27970 79590 50210 46600 6066

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-16 to 2020-07-22

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-15 291911 1327622 19154 62872 7877 9020 13475 200890 257494 200338 3910 3953 243506 51252 38721 47426 34226 76492 33148
2020-07-16 292000 1329000 19230 62950 8213 9075 13550 201100 257900 200500 3943 4023 243600 51280 38980 47730 35050 76710 33210
2020-07-17 292300 1332000 19320 63040 8517 9134 13640 201200 258400 200800 3980 4129 243700 51320 39240 48060 35980 77010 33290
2020-07-18 292700 1334000 19400 63130 8767 9196 13740 201400 258800 201000 4013 4239 243800 51380 39510 48390 36960 77010 33360
2020-07-19 293100 1336000 19490 63220 8883 9267 13830 201500 259300 201200 4043 4346 243900 51450 39770 48720 37840 77010 33440
2020-07-20 293500 1338000 19570 63310 9123 9310 13920 201700 259800 201600 4073 4452 244000 51490 40030 49050 38600 77600 33520
2020-07-21 293900 1340000 19650 63400 9423 9382 14030 201800 260300 201800 4106 4557 244000 51540 40300 49380 39530 77920 33600
2020-07-22 294300 1343000 19740 63490 9732 9442 14120 202100 260900 202100 4141 4672 244100 51600 40560 49710 40520 78370 33680

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-16 to 2020-07-22

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-07-15 10810 1966748 110693 321205 159898 968857 80094 264561 317635 337751 58850 745197 311049 215940 3497847 58225 29248 131354 354885 38137 47394 11026 12933 301478 116487 36497 12448 156652 53370 20349 20674 84129 111962 75016 74550 43648 26763 38567 2096 91837 4565 21861 175633 14904 30468 404006 69311 22814 13081 102269 62245 7652 66231 289837 24880 73527 42919 38727 4557
2020-07-16 10940 2003000 110800 323000 165700 1006000 82030 266300 323200 340100 59760 749800 325900 216800 3590000 60420 29660 134500 367200 38460 47440 11050 13020 308400 119300 36880 12950 157500 53720 20840 21090 86500 112000 75200 74690 44060 27400 39040 2135 92500 4669 21940 175800 15230 30930 404400 70200 23280 13470 102600 63460 7710 68420 302500 25320 74020 43820 39660 4695
2020-07-17 11120 2049000 111000 325100 172800 1049000 83630 268200 329400 343400 61160 755200 342400 217700 3706000 62620 30330 138000 379400 39020 47500 11100 13110 320600 124200 37460 13540 158600 54180 21520 21610 89700 112200 75570 75100 44560 28190 39780 2236 94700 4782 22070 176100 15650 31890 405000 71560 24100 13910 103300 65220 7773 71040 314700 25860 74790 44830 40800 4855
2020-07-18 11330 2086000 111200 327400 180400 1094000 85330 270100 335500 346600 62580 760600 360000 218600 3823000 64700 31060 141400 391300 39380 47560 11150 13210 333000 128700 37960 14150 159500 54760 22110 22160 92100 112300 76070 75600 45080 28970 40530 2322 96600 4901 22240 176300 16050 32900 405600 72800 24970 14370 104000 67330 7833 73560 327400 26360 75570 45610 42020 5021
2020-07-19 11500 2110000 111300 329800 188200 1140000 87010 271900 341100 349900 64170 765800 377600 219500 3944000 66810 31650 144800 404200 39710 47630 11190 13300 346800 132300 38530 14790 160400 55310 22720 22720 94600 112400 76570 76000 45600 29680 41240 2405 98400 5028 22410 176600 16450 33840 406200 74030 25780 14810 104600 69190 7889 75790 338900 26830 76340 46920 43180 5168
2020-07-20 11700 2128000 111500 332100 195500 1185000 88550 273800 346700 353200 65760 770700 396600 220500 4066000 69220 32190 148100 418200 39990 47700 11230 13400 358900 136300 38930 15450 161300 55780 23400 23290 97000 112500 76970 76380 46050 30390 41950 2493 100100 5160 22590 176900 16890 34680 406900 75170 26660 15220 105200 70960 7940 78850 351600 27290 77120 48100 44240 5321
2020-07-21 11880 2170000 111700 334500 203000 1233000 90230 275800 353000 356500 67450 775400 415900 221400 4195000 71480 32760 151800 436600 40380 47770 11280 13490 370500 141600 39330 16150 162100 56250 23990 23890 100200 112700 77470 76900 46550 31330 42720 2599 101900 5272 22770 177200 17330 35700 407500 76200 27690 15660 105900 72780 8000 81680 366700 27760 77920 49170 45390 5459
2020-07-22 12070 2214000 111900 336900 211800 1284000 92140 277700 359400 359900 69230 780200 436300 222300 4332000 73880 33410 155500 452800 40820 47840 11330 13590 383200 146600 39810 16880 163100 56790 24730 24500 103700 112800 77950 77550 47070 32220 43500 2682 103500 5376 22950 177400 17760 36550 408100 77510 28710 16120 106600 74590 8069 84860 382300 28270 78710 50160 46570 5634

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-16 to 2020-07-24

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRITNLPLPTROSECHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-07-15 291911 1327622 19154 62872 7877 9020 13475 200890 257494 200338 3910 3953 243506 51252 38721 47426 34226 76492 33148 10810 1966748 110693 321205 159898 968857 80094 264561 317635 337751 58850 745197 311049 215940 3497847 58225 29248 131354 354885 38137 47394 11026 12933 301478 116487 36497 12448 156652 53370 20349 20674 84129 111962 75016 74550 43648 26763 38567 2096 91837 4565 21861 175633 14904 30468 404006 69311 22814 13081 102269 62245 7652 66231 289837 24880 73527 42919 38727 4557
2020-07-16 292200 1331000 19240 62960 8073 9089 13560 201200 258100 200400 3940 4085 243700 51290 38960 47780 34990 76820 33240 11020 2010000 110800 324200 167600 994000 82220 266900 324400 340000 60370 749300 327700 216900 3576000 59490 30010 134000 365400 38470 47450 11030 13050 311200 119900 37380 13060 157300 54340 20970 21060 87000 112200 75350 74550 43870 27380 39030 2198 94000 4681 21880 175900 15280 31190 404500 70240 23110 13490 102700 63530 7697 67950 298300 25580 74130 43790 39650 4683
2020-07-17 292500 1335000 19330 63060 8212 9147 13630 201600 258800 200900 3978 4164 243800 51350 39200 48120 35470 77160 33340 11280 2041000 111000 325900 172600 1014000 83410 269300 328700 342400 61600 754000 340200 217800 3625000 60510 30520 136800 372900 38750 47500 11050 13140 321100 122500 37700 13500 158000 54830 21270 21390 89000 112400 75730 74760 44350 27990 39650 2309 95400 4756 22010 176100 15520 31880 405100 71160 23530 13800 103500 64680 7743 69140 305300 25930 74850 44370 40290 4783
2020-07-18 292900 1339000 19370 63130 8339 9205 13700 201800 259600 201300 4007 4249 244000 51410 39400 48410 36000 77430 33400 11530 2072000 111100 327600 177800 1036000 84570 271500 333200 344800 62920 758100 352400 218600 3679000 61510 31130 139000 381500 39060 47560 11060 13220 331400 125200 38180 13960 158600 55440 21570 21730 91300 112600 76170 75120 44760 28580 40160 2392 97400 4817 22070 176400 15810 32530 405900 72240 23990 14130 104200 66120 7777 70150 311700 26350 75440 44870 41120 4887
2020-07-19 293300 1342000 19440 63210 8496 9258 13770 202100 260400 201600 4037 4340 244100 51480 39620 48630 36620 77740 33450 11780 2105000 111300 329500 182800 1056000 85710 273900 338700 347200 63790 761000 364200 219300 3723000 62450 31770 141200 389200 39350 47600 11070 13290 341600 127900 38570 14520 159100 55940 21910 22170 93400 112900 76510 75490 45090 29190 40850 2499 99200 4907 22120 176700 16130 33280 406600 73290 24390 14470 104900 67390 7807 71330 318000 26880 76170 45490 41960 4993
2020-07-20 294100 1346000 19500 63260 8556 9281 13830 202100 261100 201900 4066 4405 244200 51540 39810 48860 37190 78010 33490 11950 2135000 111400 330100 187600 1070000 86560 276200 344100 349100 64870 764400 375600 220100 3777000 63050 32200 143500 395400 39500 47650 11080 13360 350400 130200 38640 14960 159500 56110 22230 22580 95100 113100 76730 75820 45360 29580 41100 2599 100700 4972 22140 177000 16380 33770 407300 74260 24660 14690 105700 68320 7832 71930 322500 27160 76710 45660 42430 5068
2020-07-21 294800 1351000 19560 63310 8650 9289 13910 202300 261800 202200 4094 4488 244400 51600 39990 49120 37660 78250 33510 12120 2163000 111400 331600 191500 1080000 87870 278300 347600 350600 66140 767100 386100 220700 3828000 63380 32660 145100 401800 39640 47690 11080 13440 358700 132100 38770 15430 159900 56160 22570 22870 96600 113300 76890 76140 45610 29950 41410 2675 102100 5049 22150 177200 16530 34310 407800 75170 24860 14920 106400 69130 7856 72200 326000 27460 77230 46100 42980 5114
2020-07-22 295500 1355000 19610 63360 8805 9296 13950 202600 262600 202500 4116 4560 244500 51650 40150 49370 38190 78480 33540 12400 2193000 111400 332600 196000 1099000 89190 280800 349400 351900 67190 769200 396300 221300 3868000 64330 33130 147000 410900 39720 47730 11080 13480 367000 134000 38880 16150 160200 56210 22760 22900 98200 113500 77170 76440 45830 30510 41760 2794 103700 5121 22150 177500 16800 34850 408500 76140 25250 15130 107100 69990 7865 73230 332900 27870 77740 46600 43600 5218
2020-07-23 296100 1358000 19650 63410 8878 9301 13990 202900 262900 202700 4127 4625 244600 51720 40300 49600 38720 78720 33580 12530 2222000 111400 333800 200100 1108000 90460 283100 352900 352800 68580 770800 405800 222000 3905000 64640 33640 148900 419800 39730 47760 11080 13500 374600 135600 38880 16680 160400 56210 22980 23060 99900 113600 77260 76650 46020 30790 42230 2891 104900 5183 22150 177800 17000 35360 408900 77140 25420 15370 107900 70880 7881 73590 337900 28210 78240 47020 44180 5285
2020-07-24 296900 1361000 19710 63460 8991 9319 14010 203100 263700 202800 4137 4676 244700 51780 40420 49820 39260 78940 33590 12620 2251000 111500 334500 204300 1118000 91960 285600 358300 353800 69740 770800 416400 222600 3951000 65090 34130 150400 430100 39730 47760 11080 13510 382800 137800 39000 17310 160600 56210 23130 23300 101200 113800 77420 76890 46120 31120 42480 3009 106200 5259 22150 178100 17240 36010 409400 78200 25640 15580 108600 71640 7893 74150 342000 28530 78630 47370 44690 5387

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed