COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-17


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-07-17

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-15 --03-2804-0303-2704-0603-3004-0404-1204-21 --04-1004-1003-2403-3106-0804-10 --06-0303-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4725 29651 810 1470 278 283 5661 316 8058 146 19785 86 105 1116 5650 1079 426 830 1337 240 1139
Days from 100 to peak 36 37 18 38 15 22 25 28 26 22 42 40 20 27 30 25 85 28 88 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 14 21 14 27 17 22 24 44 23 21 20 19 82 23 82 18 17
Last total 293239 1339566 19439 63499 8442 9337 13742 202045 13173 260255 7301 201448 3964 4137 4293 25730 243967 51454 39407 48077 35802 77281 9025 33382
Last daily increment 687 6165 169 261 298 134 130 595 49 1400 8 709 25 98 14 32 231 103 353 312 799 404 10 92
Last week 4286 28918 656 1030 1267 616 627 2336 227 6347 10 3249 192 465 64 119 1140 533 1886 1856 3723 2383 48 565
Days since peak 101 106 113 93 111 105 112 102 109 104 96 87 98 98 115 108 39 98 44 113 112

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-07-17

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date03-28 --05-0306-17 -- --07-1004-01 --05-30 --05-09 --04-14 -- -- -- -- --04-2404-2005-0104-26 -- -- -- --05-12 -- -- -- --04-2405-0605-2204-0605-24 -- -- -- -- --05-0105-0104-08 -- --03-31 -- -- --04-09 --05-09 -- -- --05-26 -- -- --04-21
Peak daily increment 359 1984 30221 1750 2860 5879 10910 4816 729 1012 190 197 2693 3307 1017 48 1624 673 441 89 4272 9432 1624 148 1076 86
Days from 100 to peak 18 51 92 117 36 73 52 27 40 30 39 32 58 40 48 59 21 65 34 38 24 20 23 39 68 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 15 43 49 106 29 53 34 19 35 27 40 32 48 30 41 65 15 59 29 41 16 12 16 41 60 27
Last total 11441 2046328 111559 326439 182140 1039084 83130 269440 331298 345537 63001 758001 337594 217799 3647715 62111 30663 138523 373259 39326 47665 11115 13203 326858 122973 37869 13753 159302 54813 21388 21605 88586 112481 76371 3633 76217 44928 28284 40829 2366 95570 4792 22247 6165 175921 15517 33295 405551 72280 24140 13802 104079 66060 7789 70784 317768 26021 75433 44982 40507 4783 2069
Last daily increment 208 34177 415 2741 8934 35252 1462 2379 7257 3951 1735 6389 13373 926 71558 1953 569 3910 8553 618 141 39 210 11455 3435 562 619 1375 733 571 523 2178 299 707 39 771 672 777 1032 135 1862 124 230 26 56 316 1380 776 1679 700 293 1004 1977 95 2153 11914 501 1002 869 880 126 43
Last week 1644 206478 2409 14410 36508 189562 9112 14323 36030 22827 8779 38552 73410 5818 401790 10817 3847 18593 54498 2753 608 314 566 72626 17884 3246 3248 6388 3734 2701 2487 11787 1464 3904 119 4253 3445 3764 5410 689 11664 549 1363 143 1609 1679 6457 4522 8066 4361 1951 4863 11361 335 12072 63353 2795 5651 5883 4828 637 230
Days since peak 111 75 30 7 107 48 69 94 84 88 77 82 66 84 72 56 102 54 77 77 100 108 99 69 52 87

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-18 to 2020-07-24

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-17 293239 1339566 19439 63499 8442 9337 13742 202045 13173 260255 201448 4137 243967 51454 39407 48077 35802 77281 33382
2020-07-18 293400 1343000 19540 63840 8940 9500 13870 202400 13200 261400 201600 4305 244100 51460 39690 48410 36740 77760 33430
2020-07-19 294000 1347000 19630 64100 9090 9650 13980 202600 13220 262400 202000 4399 244300 51550 39970 48740 37700 78250 33480
2020-07-20 294500 1351000 19720 64370 9350 9770 14100 202900 13240 263400 202400 4487 244500 51610 40240 49070 38660 78730 33530
2020-07-21 295300 1355000 19820 64630 9710 9920 14210 203200 13260 264400 202900 4554 244500 51660 40510 49390 39640 79210 33570
2020-07-22 295800 1358000 19910 64880 10070 10040 14330 203600 13280 265400 203300 4690 244700 51740 40770 49720 40640 79690 33620
2020-07-23 296400 1362000 20000 65140 10480 10180 14440 204000 13300 266400 203700 4817 244900 51820 41040 50040 41650 80180 33660
2020-07-24 296900 1366000 20090 65390 10830 10280 14560 204500 13330 267400 204200 4962 245100 51900 41310 50370 42680 80660 33710

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-18 to 2020-07-24

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-17 11441 2046328 111559 326439 182140 1039084 83130 269440 331298 345537 63001 758001 337594 217799 3647715 62111 30663 138523 373259 39326 47665 11115 13203 326858 122973 37869 13753 159302 54813 21388 21605 88586 112481 76371 76217 44928 28284 40829 2366 95570 4792 22247 175921 15517 33295 405551 72280 24140 13802 104079 66060 7789 70784 317768 26021 75433 44982 40507 4783 2069
2020-07-18 11670 2095000 111900 329000 190100 1078000 84250 271800 342300 349000 65400 764300 353500 218700 3761000 64560 31290 144600 381300 39770 47690 11160 13310 339100 129000 38480 14230 160400 55440 21800 22010 91400 112600 77000 76540 45440 29160 41720 2462 98700 4922 22440 176200 15940 34280 406200 74500 25060 14220 104400 67700 7852 72260 330700 26470 76350 45940 41530 5008 2103
2020-07-19 11880 2120000 112200 331500 196900 1120000 85350 274100 351100 352400 67540 770500 370400 219600 3869000 66890 31900 150900 387600 40130 47770 11200 13420 351100 132900 39400 14790 161400 56050 22330 22460 93500 112800 77610 76890 45930 29720 42680 2556 101500 5056 22620 176600 16330 35490 406900 76780 26000 14650 105000 69320 7910 73900 344200 26900 77250 47020 42600 5242 2136
2020-07-20 12100 2139000 112500 334000 204200 1160000 86470 276400 360000 355700 69160 776700 387800 220500 3975000 69650 32510 157300 395400 40490 47850 11240 13520 363300 137000 39870 15350 162400 56650 22860 22930 95400 113000 78200 77210 46420 30400 43690 2654 104500 5192 22790 176900 16740 36630 407500 79090 26950 15080 105600 70920 7964 75600 358100 27360 78150 48110 43690 5485 2170
2020-07-21 12320 2179000 112800 336500 211000 1204000 87560 278700 372600 359100 70280 782700 406200 221400 4098000 72150 33120 164000 407100 40930 47920 11280 13610 375300 141900 40510 15930 163400 57230 23420 23440 98200 113300 78780 77690 46900 31600 44750 2752 107700 5334 22970 177200 17130 38090 408200 81520 27940 15530 106400 72510 8019 77400 372500 27730 79040 49230 44830 5742 2202
2020-07-22 12530 2220000 113100 339000 218700 1251000 88660 281000 385300 362400 72100 788900 425400 222300 4224000 75110 33720 170900 415500 41420 48000 11320 13710 387500 147500 41350 16530 164300 57820 23990 23960 100600 113500 79370 78280 47370 32550 45840 2853 110700 5478 23140 177500 17600 39150 408800 84020 28960 16000 107300 74120 8073 79260 387500 28130 79940 50360 46000 6012 2235
2020-07-23 12750 2265000 113400 341500 229000 1302000 89770 283300 398500 365700 74210 795000 445600 223200 4362000 78400 34330 178100 424800 41970 48080 11360 13800 399800 152700 42490 17160 165300 58420 24580 24490 103000 113700 79950 78840 47850 33650 46960 2958 113900 5627 23320 177800 18070 40860 409400 86590 30020 16480 108100 75750 8128 81170 403100 28720 80850 51510 47200 6295 2267
2020-07-24 12970 2302000 113700 344100 240900 1358000 90890 285600 412000 369100 76550 801100 466700 224100 4497000 81250 34950 185500 433500 42540 48150 11400 13900 412400 158200 43540 17810 166300 59010 25180 25040 106400 114000 80540 79560 48320 34740 48110 3066 117400 5780 23490 178100 18550 42580 410100 89250 31110 16970 109000 77400 8183 83140 419300 29240 81760 52680 48440 6591 2300

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-18 to 2020-07-24

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-17 293239 1339566 19439 63499 8442 9337 13742 202045 13173 260255 201448 4137 243967 51454 39407 48077 35802 77281 33382
2020-07-18 293500 1340000 19480 63560 8710 9384 13770 202100 13180 260600 201500 4242 244000 51460 39590 48400 36730 77280 33430
2020-07-19 294000 1342000 19550 63610 8840 9445 13830 202200 13190 261100 201600 4356 244100 51510 39860 48730 37630 77400 33510
2020-07-20 294500 1345000 19620 63680 9070 9496 13900 202400 13210 261800 202000 4471 244200 51560 40120 49050 38480 77700 33590
2020-07-21 295200 1347000 19700 63750 9390 9585 13980 202500 13230 262500 202200 4587 244300 51610 40390 49380 39500 77880 33660
2020-07-22 295600 1350000 19790 63830 9680 9663 14080 202700 13250 263200 202500 4715 244400 51680 40650 49700 40530 78310 33730
2020-07-23 296000 1352000 19880 63940 10090 9775 14160 203000 13260 264000 202800 4844 244500 51740 40920 50030 41670 78710 33810
2020-07-24 296400 1355000 19970 64060 10480 9858 14240 203200 13290 264800 203100 4979 244600 51790 41200 50360 42850 78950 33890

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-18 to 2020-07-24

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-17 11441 2046328 111559 326439 182140 1039084 83130 269440 331298 345537 63001 758001 337594 217799 3647715 62111 30663 138523 373259 39326 47665 11115 13203 326858 122973 37869 13753 159302 54813 21388 21605 88586 112481 76371 76217 44928 28284 40829 2366 95570 4792 22247 175921 15517 33295 405551 72280 24140 13802 104079 66060 7789 70784 317768 26021 75433 44982 40507 4783 2069
2020-07-18 11610 2081000 111700 328000 187300 1079000 84510 271200 339700 348100 64720 762500 352800 218700 3742000 64060 31260 142600 380400 39600 47680 11160 13240 335600 126600 38610 14270 160000 55280 21900 22120 90600 112600 76690 76560 45280 29080 41940 2436 98000 4899 22400 176100 15860 34230 406000 74090 24930 14230 104500 67700 7833 72990 329700 26360 76040 45610 41650 4933 2090
2020-07-19 11800 2105000 111900 330200 194600 1124000 86060 273100 348800 351400 66870 767900 369400 219500 3857000 66160 31880 147700 388200 39960 47730 11200 13330 348000 129800 39600 14870 160900 55840 22470 22690 93100 112700 77190 77000 45800 29810 43140 2524 100800 5018 22590 176400 16250 35470 406700 76090 25770 14670 105100 69550 7888 75130 341100 26800 76880 46910 42880 5091 2122
2020-07-20 12020 2124000 112100 332400 202400 1167000 87460 275100 358400 354800 69050 773200 387000 220400 3974000 68600 32490 152700 396500 40290 47790 11250 13420 360300 134100 40400 15550 161800 56410 23190 23290 95600 112800 77680 77460 46320 30610 44380 2624 103700 5151 22780 176700 16670 36690 407300 78120 26650 15060 105800 71330 7936 78000 353200 27260 77720 48140 43950 5255 2157
2020-07-21 12220 2164000 112400 334600 210200 1214000 89010 277100 369900 358100 71090 778200 404700 221300 4102000 70890 33170 158300 407000 40710 47870 11280 13510 372400 138500 41280 16260 162700 56970 23760 23910 98700 113000 78270 78060 46850 31610 45660 2741 107000 5260 22970 177000 17080 38070 407900 80190 27680 15510 106600 73260 7992 80530 367900 27710 78570 49120 45210 5400 2192
2020-07-22 12440 2205000 112600 336800 219200 1265000 90690 279100 381700 361500 73370 783200 423600 222200 4237000 73350 33780 163900 415800 41160 47940 11330 13610 384200 143300 42260 16990 163600 57580 24470 24550 102000 113100 78830 78760 47380 32560 46990 2849 109900 5363 23160 177200 17500 39350 408600 82360 28740 15950 107300 75060 8060 83430 383700 28150 79420 50130 46460 5576 2225
2020-07-23 12710 2246000 112800 339100 228600 1318000 92670 281100 394000 365000 75790 788000 444100 223100 4380000 76250 34520 169800 424800 41620 48020 11370 13700 396500 148300 43410 17770 164600 58190 25150 25210 105000 113200 79390 79310 47910 33550 48350 2990 113000 5507 23350 177500 17960 40770 409200 84500 29740 16490 108100 77040 8124 86420 402100 28650 80280 51360 47750 5794 2261
2020-07-24 12910 2303000 113000 341400 238700 1374000 94470 282900 407000 368400 78440 792600 467000 224000 4526000 79030 35210 176000 433700 42190 48090 11420 13800 410400 154600 44550 18570 165700 58830 26000 25890 109000 113300 79920 79940 48460 34580 49750 3154 116700 5651 23540 177800 18440 42310 409800 86860 30780 17000 108900 79100 8194 89530 418600 29170 81150 52380 49210 6000 2295

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-18 to 2020-07-26

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-17 293239 1339566 19439 63499 8442 9337 13742 202045 13173 260255 201448 4137 243967 51454 39407 48077 35802 77281 33382 11441 2046328 111559 326439 182140 1039084 83130 269440 331298 345537 63001 758001 337594 217799 3647715 62111 30663 138523 373259 39326 47665 11115 13203 326858 122973 37869 13753 159302 54813 21388 21605 88586 112481 76371 76217 44928 28284 40829 2366 95570 4792 22247 175921 15517 33295 405551 72280 24140 13802 104079 66060 7789 70784 317768 26021 75433 44982 40507 4783 2069
2020-07-18 293600 1342000 19510 63500 8651 9400 13800 202000 13170 260900 201500 4289 244200 51490 39550 48420 36590 77570 33410 11720 2094000 111700 327500 186300 1066000 84600 272000 338800 347500 65060 762200 353300 218600 3725000 63580 31410 141500 383600 39630 47700 11140 13260 337900 126400 38720 14540 159700 55840 22100 22120 91000 112600 76850 76800 45130 28890 41680 2488 98100 4922 22310 176300 15900 34110 406200 74030 24850 14180 104600 67740 7822 72480 326400 26580 76930 46010 41640 4979 2099
2020-07-19 293900 1346000 19600 63660 8875 9464 13860 202000 13200 262400 201800 4376 244500 51550 39780 48750 37260 77810 33420 12020 2137000 111800 328900 193100 1094000 85990 274500 344900 350400 66570 766700 370100 219500 3790000 64840 32060 144700 393300 40060 47790 11180 13320 349300 129500 39390 15260 160500 56760 22700 22390 93000 112800 77350 77610 45570 29420 42480 2648 99800 5018 22490 176500 16270 35050 406800 75310 25490 14440 105400 69450 7860 73990 336700 27060 77980 46680 42320 5118 2129
2020-07-20 294300 1350000 19690 63780 8996 9507 13920 202000 13220 263200 202200 4475 244700 51620 39990 49010 37840 78040 33420 12320 2175000 111900 330000 198400 1119000 87070 277100 350800 353100 68090 770700 381000 220300 3858000 66090 32720 147200 401200 40480 47880 11230 13380 359600 131800 39860 15770 161100 57370 23280 22750 94900 112900 77820 78500 45960 30010 43110 2742 101900 5127 22650 176700 16530 35960 407400 76460 26070 14670 106200 71180 7898 75260 344900 27560 78830 47440 43040 5248 2161
2020-07-21 294700 1355000 19770 63920 9194 9561 13990 202000 13240 263900 202600 4581 244900 51690 40180 49300 38550 78280 33420 12590 2207000 112000 331100 204000 1147000 88160 279600 356700 355200 69520 774200 394800 221000 3931000 67340 33320 150000 409700 40870 47970 11240 13440 369900 134700 40550 16470 161800 58240 23800 23180 97000 113100 78160 79230 46320 30590 44020 2901 104000 5217 22760 176900 16810 36840 408100 77960 26670 14980 107100 72780 7920 76690 350900 28070 80000 48210 43840 5379 2191
2020-07-22 295300 1359000 19840 64030 9342 9627 14050 202000 13260 264800 203000 4653 244900 51760 40350 49560 39300 78490 33440 12890 2246000 112000 332000 208400 1169000 89090 281900 362300 357400 70930 776900 408700 221700 3983000 69050 33910 152300 414800 41190 48050 11260 13500 379300 137300 40960 17030 162200 59300 24310 23620 98200 113200 78430 79950 46640 31180 44860 3049 105900 5304 22850 177000 17070 37510 408300 79290 27020 15100 107900 74570 7941 78340 357900 28500 80770 49170 44380 5511 2221
2020-07-23 295800 1362000 19910 64170 9482 9627 14070 202000 13270 265500 203300 4720 245100 51830 40520 49850 39900 78710 33440 13170 2275000 112100 332900 212300 1187000 90700 284000 366400 359300 72300 778800 419300 222500 4035000 70010 34440 154500 419900 41520 48120 11260 13560 387900 139600 41290 17320 162700 59890 24740 23930 99800 113400 78750 80450 47050 31680 45340 3111 107500 5376 22860 177200 17280 38300 408900 80460 27490 15380 108700 75930 7961 79370 363500 28870 81250 49860 45010 5610 2246
2020-07-24 296400 1365000 19960 64330 9627 9627 14150 202000 13290 266300 203500 4759 245200 51880 40640 50090 40500 78920 33440 13390 2302000 112100 333600 216700 1208000 92070 286200 369900 361000 73720 780000 432800 222800 4061000 70620 34860 156600 426200 41870 48200 11260 13610 397500 142100 41890 17830 163000 60690 25150 23930 101100 113500 78810 81210 47400 32190 45970 3232 109000 5446 22890 177400 17440 39120 409400 81310 27850 15480 109500 77410 7973 80590 369700 29210 82020 50530 45380 5726 2270
2020-07-25 297100 1367000 19990 64430 9811 9627 14160 202000 13300 266700 203800 4827 245400 51940 40750 50360 41140 79110 33440 13700 2334000 112100 334500 221200 1226000 93220 288200 374500 362200 74690 780200 444700 223100 4087000 71680 35310 159100 432900 42160 48250 11260 13640 406400 144000 42320 18600 163100 61230 25630 24120 102500 113700 78830 81790 47740 32660 46540 3410 110700 5535 22890 177500 17670 39800 409800 81310 28270 15650 110200 78590 7978 82170 374200 29600 82020 51280 45810 5849 2286
2020-07-26 297900 1370000 20010 64490 9948 9627 14160 202000 13320 267500 204200 4889 245600 51990 40880 50630 41610 79260 33440 13870 2360000 112100 335200 225400 1243000 94940 289500 378400 363900 75830 780200 457300 223400 4123000 72850 35750 161000 440300 42450 48330 11260 13660 414300 146000 42780 18980 163300 61750 26010 24400 102800 113800 78830 82120 47920 33030 47140 3565 112000 5597 22890 177700 17860 40510 410100 81400 28710 15840 110700 79690 7978 83440 380400 29890 82020 51910 46450 5954 2305

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed