COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-20


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-07-20

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-1507-1703-2804-0303-2704-0603-3004-0404-1204-21 --04-1004-1003-2403-3106-0804-10 --06-0303-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4725 29654 810 1470 281 278 283 5661 316 8056 146 19786 86 105 1116 5649 1079 426 830 1337 240 1139
Days from 100 to peak 36 37 18 38 119 15 22 25 28 26 22 42 40 20 27 30 25 85 28 88 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 118 14 21 14 27 17 22 24 44 23 21 20 19 82 23 82 18 17
Last total 295372 1355678 19743 64094 8929 9607 14098 203325 13262 264836 7340 203242 4012 4370 4339 25766 244624 51910 40383 48771 38139 78048 9034 33634
Last daily increment 580 10387 88 388 196 49 153 590 89 4581 5 1961 5 25 6 6 190 185 279 135 681 767 6 43
Last week 3999 33138 722 1313 1284 661 757 2869 201 8217 39 3733 129 543 81 96 1280 764 1926 1720 4554 2047 33 618
Days since peak 104 109 116 96 3 114 108 115 105 112 107 99 90 101 101 118 111 42 101 47 116 115

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-07-20

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date03-2807-1505-0306-17 -- --07-0904-01 --05-30 --05-0907-1604-1407-1707-16 --07-06 --04-2404-2005-0104-26 --07-17 -- --05-12 -- -- -- --04-2405-0605-2204-0605-24 -- -- -- -- --05-0105-0104-0807-17 --03-3107-0307-1507-1704-09 --05-09 -- -- --05-26 -- --07-1704-21
Peak daily increment 359 39250 1984 31325 1837 2861 5879 10904 13762 4816 73055 2057 3514 729 1012 190 197 3126 2693 3307 1017 48 1624 673 441 89 4272 279 9432 1931 786 353 1624 148 1076 143 86
Days from 100 to peak 18 123 51 93 116 36 73 52 120 27 134 118 106 40 30 39 32 123 58 40 48 59 21 65 34 38 24 114 20 106 113 119 23 39 68 110 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 15 95 43 48 105 29 53 34 73 19 116 106 94 35 27 40 32 112 48 30 41 65 15 59 29 41 16 112 12 98 108 116 16 41 60 111 27
Last total 12428 2118646 112938 330930 204005 1155338 88214 276202 349396 353590 68898 776212 373628 220572 3830010 67711 32672 145183 397870 40548 47821 11339 13471 359990 130974 39321 15268 162706 57206 22656 23410 94884 113384 78685 3687 77958 46348 30293 43889 2620 101231 5126 22722 6249 176313 16260 36713 407326 76168 25436 14847 101738 71445 7943 76233 343783 27538 78375 47629 43018 5084 2187
Last daily increment 359 20257 770 0 6727 37132 1693 2414 5172 0 1442 5901 9300 931 56750 1846 647 1559 10964 424 156 78 97 10331 1928 537 394 1164 635 660 255 3183 250 554 26 512 237 487 1251 87 1428 107 259 46 204 244 948 519 1236 170 268 -3646 1459 37 1458 8526 312 945 798 703 94 61
Last week 1941 191822 2588 11437 44107 219157 9642 14029 37910 19723 11353 37425 75336 5579 398436 11270 3981 17086 51659 2880 534 393 616 68689 17966 3486 3549 7245 4521 2769 3198 12842 1635 4425 123 4471 3270 4268 6347 668 11231 633 1121 158 1042 1682 7094 4151 8173 3696 2042 472 11056 371 12233 64206 3014 5932 5468 5112 677 237
Days since peak 114 5 78 33 11 110 51 72 4 97 3 4 14 87 91 80 85 3 69 87 75 59 105 57 80 80 103 3 111 17 5 3 102 72 55 3 90

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-21 to 2020-07-27

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-20 295372 1355678 19743 64094 8929 9607 14098 203325 13262 264836 203242 4370 244624 51910 40383 48771 38139 78048 33634
2020-07-21 295700 1359000 19840 64210 9030 9710 14180 203400 13280 267900 203200 4407 244700 51980 40670 49070 39090 78980 33720
2020-07-22 296300 1362000 19930 64320 9250 9810 14270 203800 13300 270400 203400 4511 244900 52100 40950 49370 40130 79290 33810
2020-07-23 296800 1366000 20020 64440 9510 9920 14350 204200 13320 272800 203800 4602 245200 52220 41230 49670 41300 79590 33890
2020-07-24 297400 1370000 20110 64560 9740 10020 14430 204700 13340 275100 204300 4695 245400 52320 41500 49980 42490 79950 33970
2020-07-25 298100 1374000 20200 64670 9970 10120 14500 205100 13370 277400 204700 4801 245600 52410 41780 50280 43750 79950 34060
2020-07-26 298800 1378000 20290 64790 10070 10220 14580 205300 13390 279800 205200 4882 245800 52550 42050 50580 44810 79950 34140
2020-07-27 299300 1382000 20380 64900 10250 10320 14660 205800 13410 282100 205600 4919 246000 52680 42330 50890 45870 80570 34230

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-21 to 2020-07-27

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-20 12428 2118646 112938 330930 204005 1155338 88214 276202 349396 353590 68898 776212 373628 220572 3830010 67711 32672 145183 397870 40548 47821 11339 13471 359990 130974 39321 15268 162706 57206 22656 23410 94884 113384 78685 77958 46348 30293 43889 2620 101231 5126 22722 176313 16260 36713 407326 76168 25436 14847 101738 71445 7943 76233 343783 27538 78375 47629 43018 5084 2187
2020-07-21 12710 2168000 113300 334000 213400 1193000 89500 278500 354600 354800 70470 782300 386400 221500 3893000 69470 33300 150700 422600 41070 47880 11420 13570 374500 131700 39470 15760 163800 57610 23050 23730 98600 113500 79380 78810 46850 31260 45190 2744 104600 5246 22910 176600 16510 38440 408000 77380 25970 15160 101700 73260 7998 77970 356100 27900 79300 48460 43870 5199 2220
2020-07-22 13000 2207000 113600 337100 223500 1240000 90790 280700 361000 356100 72010 788400 399100 222500 3957000 71210 33930 153900 440200 41580 47960 11490 13670 390000 134300 40060 16230 164800 58240 23450 24110 101700 113700 80060 79740 47350 31980 46550 2873 107100 5371 23090 176800 16760 40180 408600 78550 26520 15460 101700 75020 8053 79680 370600 28320 80200 49560 44690 5314 2254
2020-07-23 13280 2249000 113900 340100 234200 1291000 92070 282800 367700 357500 73560 794400 411800 223400 4028000 72950 34540 157100 459100 42150 48030 11560 13760 405500 136400 40830 16710 165900 58940 23840 24530 104600 113900 80740 80560 47840 32770 47940 3005 109700 5497 23270 177000 17000 41950 409200 79710 27060 15760 101700 76800 8108 81360 387400 28900 81110 50950 45540 5427 2287
2020-07-24 13560 2283000 114200 343100 245400 1343000 93340 285000 374600 358900 75070 800300 424600 224300 4090000 74680 35160 160900 476500 42760 48110 11630 13860 422000 139400 41380 17180 166900 59630 24240 24970 108400 114200 81410 81420 48330 33370 49380 3135 112700 5628 23450 177300 17250 43770 409900 80860 27610 16050 101700 78540 8163 83040 401900 29430 82000 52090 46390 5541 2320
2020-07-25 13840 2312000 114600 346200 257200 1399000 94620 287100 381300 360300 76600 806300 437500 225200 4149000 76440 35780 163600 493500 43200 48180 11700 13960 439000 142300 41790 17650 167900 60360 24630 25420 109800 114500 82080 82130 48820 34080 50880 3235 115900 5762 23620 177500 17500 45650 410500 82010 28170 16350 101700 80310 8218 84730 415500 29950 82900 53130 47360 5656 2354
2020-07-26 14130 2333000 114900 349300 269500 1458000 95910 289300 386200 361700 78150 812300 450700 226100 4209000 78210 36400 166100 511300 43570 48250 11770 14050 456800 143900 42340 18130 168900 61120 25030 25890 113500 114700 82760 82660 49320 34600 52420 3316 118400 5899 23800 177700 17740 47600 411100 83180 28730 16650 101700 82090 8273 86440 427200 30490 83810 54540 48190 5772 2387
2020-07-27 14420 2354000 115200 352400 282400 1518000 97210 291500 390900 363100 79710 818300 464100 227100 4267000 80010 37030 167400 530000 43940 48320 11840 14150 475400 146100 42730 18620 170000 61660 25430 26360 117000 114900 83440 83100 49810 35160 54010 3414 121500 6040 23980 178000 17990 49630 411700 84340 29290 16950 101700 83890 8328 88170 434900 30840 84720 55760 48830 5890 2421

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-21 to 2020-07-27

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-20 295372 1355678 19743 64094 8929 9607 14098 203325 13262 264836 203242 4370 244624 51910 40383 48771 38139 78048 33634
2020-07-21 295700 1356000 19820 64160 9090 9690 14150 203300 13270 265200 203200 4429 244600 51920 40610 49020 39070 78210 33690
2020-07-22 296200 1358000 19920 64260 9300 9780 14210 203500 13280 265600 203300 4523 244700 51980 40890 49320 40130 78410 33760
2020-07-23 296700 1360000 20010 64370 9540 9920 14290 203700 13300 266000 203400 4614 244800 52040 41170 49630 41330 78610 33830
2020-07-24 297300 1363000 20100 64490 9800 10020 14380 203900 13320 266600 203600 4707 244900 52100 41460 49930 42530 78820 33900
2020-07-25 297800 1366000 20190 64610 10050 10110 14470 204100 13340 267300 203800 4808 245000 52180 41750 50230 43770 78940 33980
2020-07-26 298300 1368000 20280 64740 10260 10220 14550 204200 13360 267900 204100 4888 245100 52270 42030 50530 44870 79060 34050
2020-07-27 298700 1371000 20360 64870 10490 10290 14630 204400 13380 268700 204300 4964 245200 52350 42310 50840 45930 79440 34120

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-21 to 2020-07-27

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-20 12428 2118646 112938 330930 204005 1155338 88214 276202 349396 353590 68898 776212 373628 220572 3830010 67711 32672 145183 397870 40548 47821 11339 13471 359990 130974 39321 15268 162706 57206 22656 23410 94884 113384 78685 77958 46348 30293 43889 2620 101231 5126 22722 176313 16260 36713 407326 76168 25436 14847 101738 71445 7943 76233 343783 27538 78375 47629 43018 5084 2187
2020-07-21 12650 2148000 113000 332700 211500 1197000 89540 278000 354600 356300 70220 780900 385700 221400 3892000 69460 33300 148200 413500 40970 47870 11380 13560 372600 133400 39620 15720 163500 57630 23020 23930 97600 113400 79120 78530 46840 30980 44970 2747 103800 5221 22880 176500 16500 38070 407900 77190 25880 15140 101400 73030 7993 77600 353500 27930 79220 48500 43890 5183 2209
2020-07-22 12910 2182000 113200 335000 220200 1246000 90990 280100 361000 359600 71810 786100 399500 222200 3953000 71330 33960 151300 427700 41460 47940 11440 13650 387700 136800 40190 16270 164600 58290 23450 24590 100500 113600 79800 79320 47380 31710 46200 2895 106700 5351 23080 176700 16780 39420 408600 78500 26590 15460 102000 74820 8060 79730 364800 28380 80150 49580 44700 5321 2243
2020-07-23 13240 2220000 113400 337300 229500 1299000 92630 282000 367600 362900 73480 791200 413700 223100 4021000 73390 34660 154400 442900 41980 48010 11490 13740 403500 139800 40860 16890 165600 58970 23890 25270 103400 113700 80470 80010 47930 32460 47470 3053 109700 5497 23270 177000 17050 41010 409200 79720 27320 15790 102600 76640 8120 81840 379300 28930 81080 50890 45600 5452 2279
2020-07-24 13460 2260000 113600 339600 239700 1353000 94170 283900 374500 366200 75170 796100 428400 224000 4082000 75410 35340 157700 457100 42560 48080 11540 13840 419900 143400 41430 17540 166700 59660 24330 25970 106700 113900 81130 80740 48480 33190 48780 3211 113100 5651 23460 177200 17350 42670 409900 81130 28070 16130 103300 78530 8190 83970 391600 29450 82020 52040 46510 5586 2314
2020-07-25 13760 2290000 113900 341900 250000 1410000 95930 285700 381100 369500 76880 800800 443700 224800 4138000 77420 36040 161000 470200 42990 48150 11600 13930 437100 147100 41920 18200 167800 60360 24780 26690 108700 114000 81780 81370 49040 33940 50140 3345 116600 5805 23650 177500 17630 44260 410500 82440 28850 16470 103800 80460 8254 85900 402100 29970 82960 53050 47590 5721 2351
2020-07-26 14010 2310000 114100 344200 259900 1467000 97560 287400 386900 372800 78640 805300 459300 225700 4193000 79340 36740 164100 485200 43370 48230 11650 14030 455200 149700 42500 18820 168800 61060 25240 27440 112300 114200 82450 81880 49600 34690 51540 3477 119900 5959 23840 177700 17900 45950 411200 83740 29650 16820 104300 82440 8310 87610 411700 30480 83910 54340 48440 5881 2384
2020-07-27 14310 2334000 114300 346600 270500 1525000 99190 289300 392700 376200 80430 809800 475200 226600 4247000 81480 37440 167000 501400 43740 48300 11710 14120 473900 152900 42960 19510 169800 61710 25700 28210 115600 114300 83010 82370 50180 35450 52980 3621 123600 6131 24040 178000 18180 47590 411800 85040 30420 17180 104800 84300 8361 89980 420700 30960 84880 55690 49090 6022 2422

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-21 to 2020-07-29

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-20 295372 1355678 19743 64094 8929 9607 14098 203325 13262 264836 203242 4370 244624 51910 40383 48771 38139 78048 33634 12428 2118646 112938 330930 204005 1155338 88214 276202 349396 353590 68898 776212 373628 220572 3830010 67711 32672 145183 397870 40548 47821 11339 13471 359990 130974 39321 15268 162706 57206 22656 23410 94884 113384 78685 77958 46348 30293 43889 2620 101231 5126 22722 176313 16260 36713 407326 76168 25436 14847 101738 71445 7943 76233 343783 27538 78375 47629 43018 5084 2187
2020-07-21 296100 1356000 19810 64090 9190 9740 14140 203400 13260 264800 203200 4477 244800 51970 40550 49290 39100 78240 33730 12810 2172000 112900 334900 210400 1187000 90200 278300 356400 357600 70490 779400 390700 221500 3918000 69710 33360 148900 408600 41510 47860 11390 13570 377200 134600 40130 15820 163400 58310 23050 23950 97400 113600 79310 78920 46840 31180 44480 2796 104400 5243 22890 176500 16600 38020 408100 77140 26480 15160 103800 72930 7991 77870 353800 28090 79080 48540 44000 5284 2202
2020-07-22 296900 1359000 19900 64140 9400 9850 14240 203800 13260 264800 203200 4570 244900 52130 40780 49560 39920 78380 33810 13130 2209000 113000 336400 218200 1228000 92100 280300 364600 360800 72470 783700 405600 222400 4001000 71470 34030 151400 417900 42280 47920 11440 13650 390000 137800 40820 16430 164300 59440 23530 24510 99600 113800 79810 79680 47350 31830 45640 2929 106300 5365 23030 176800 16940 39270 408800 78240 26990 15430 105100 74860 8020 79980 364000 28690 79870 49630 44950 5414 2237
2020-07-23 297700 1364000 19970 64280 9640 9920 14280 204100 13280 264800 203500 4657 245100 52290 41000 49780 40750 78520 33890 13410 2244000 113400 337700 225400 1257000 93900 282500 371200 363300 73710 784900 418800 223200 4080000 73290 34650 153800 427000 43160 47970 11500 13730 400300 140600 41590 16940 165100 60390 24010 24950 101900 114000 80120 80480 47780 32620 46400 3044 108200 5476 23150 177000 17240 40560 409600 79180 27480 15740 105200 76600 8042 81820 377500 29210 80530 50480 45790 5560 2274
2020-07-24 298500 1369000 20020 64370 9840 10070 14370 204500 13310 264800 203700 4732 245200 52420 41190 50000 41370 78640 33960 13690 2282000 113800 339500 233300 1287000 95500 284700 376900 365900 75050 786500 431700 224100 4162000 74850 35210 155900 433900 43470 48020 11540 13800 413600 143100 42280 17460 165700 61210 24440 25400 104000 114200 80330 81200 48080 33320 47120 3168 110200 5574 23260 177300 17530 41780 410400 80120 28200 16040 105300 78070 8048 83450 381300 29740 81130 51330 46800 5685 2308
2020-07-25 299300 1371000 20060 64470 9970 10130 14470 204900 13330 264800 204100 4808 245400 52560 41290 50240 42040 78700 34020 13960 2316000 113900 340800 240700 1324000 97000 286800 383200 368400 76380 787500 446500 224700 4225000 76650 35710 157600 443400 43890 48060 11550 13840 427700 145400 42820 17950 166000 62010 24800 25900 105900 114400 80350 81950 48370 34030 47930 3321 111900 5651 23310 177400 17840 43020 411100 81060 28750 16280 105600 79570 8055 85010 388700 30220 81680 52150 47630 5807 2345
2020-07-26 300100 1375000 20110 64560 10130 10160 14570 205200 13350 264800 204200 4874 245500 52660 41390 50470 42550 78780 34070 14170 2349000 114100 342400 246800 1353000 98400 288500 388600 370100 77400 787600 460200 225600 4283000 78180 36150 159600 451200 44410 48090 11570 13870 435900 147900 43340 18390 166500 62550 25140 26390 107800 114600 80360 82770 48580 34610 48950 3403 113700 5742 23380 177600 18090 43800 411700 82000 29230 16520 105800 80980 8059 86440 395900 30590 82150 52850 48310 5923 2384
2020-07-27 300900 1378000 20140 64630 10300 10160 14680 205400 13370 264800 204400 4944 245600 52710 41550 50710 43030 78880 34120 14440 2372000 114200 343800 253400 1386000 99900 290400 394200 371100 78560 788000 471000 226400 4351000 79510 36680 161600 460000 45160 48120 11600 13910 450100 150300 43890 18840 166900 63390 25540 26810 109400 114900 80410 83490 48810 35170 49840 3546 115800 5833 23410 177800 18330 44950 412100 82820 29830 16760 106300 82280 8066 87870 406200 31060 82720 53550 49100 6047 2416
2020-07-28 301600 1381000 20180 64710 10410 10160 14790 205600 13390 264800 204600 5007 245900 52720 41660 50930 43570 79050 34170 14660 2398000 114400 345200 259500 1414000 101200 291700 399200 372500 78970 788000 483200 227000 4411000 80940 37160 163200 466600 45510 48120 11630 13910 460000 152200 44370 19280 167200 64130 25880 27150 110900 115100 80450 84180 49020 35520 50530 3668 117300 5913 23450 177900 18530 45980 412500 83660 30350 16940 106800 83420 8070 89100 411300 31470 83140 54260 49850 6151 2447
2020-07-29 302300 1381000 20220 64760 10530 10160 14910 205900 13400 264800 204800 5054 246000 52730 41690 51070 44010 79230 34240 14770 2430000 114500 346200 265600 1442000 102200 294200 403400 373800 79480 788000 491200 227700 4454000 82390 37510 164800 472000 45930 48130 11660 13920 469000 153600 44750 19670 167400 64570 26150 27480 112100 115300 80530 84890 49170 35930 51080 3746 118700 5973 23490 178000 18710 46850 412800 84370 30810 17110 107500 84330 8070 90190 415200 31800 83560 54850 50490 6247 2474

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed