COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-08-15


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-08-15

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-1507-1703-2804-0303-2704-0603-3004-0404-12 -- --04-1004-1003-2403-31 --04-10 --06-0303-3104-1603-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4726 29651 810 1470 233 278 283 5662 316 8059 146 19786 105 1116 5649 1079 830 1337 52 49 240 1139
Days from 100 to peak 36 71 18 38 119 15 22 25 28 27 22 43 20 27 30 25 28 89 18 28 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 118 14 21 14 27 17 22 24 23 21 20 19 23 82 21 34 18 17
Last total 317379 1611399 23179 77869 14333 12009 19891 224488 15483 342813 7720 239345 6858 6420 4877 27191 253438 62495 56090 53981 69374 84294 2401 2855 9965 37924
Last daily increment 1012 9842 303 756 90 75 198 697 104 0 20 3231 226 162 24 196 629 655 771 198 1328 0 32 54 57 253
Last week 6554 86997 1146 3717 937 400 1538 7200 1041 28451 136 16943 1235 816 181 479 2872 3931 4299 1313 7606 1971 152 259 327 1321
Days since peak 130 135 142 122 29 140 134 141 131 138 133 125 127 127 144 137 127 73 137 121 142 141

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-08-15

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date08-0408-0605-0306-06 -- -- --04-0107-31 -- --05-0907-1304-1407-1707-2607-1608-0507-0407-1604-2404-2005-0104-2607-1607-29 --07-1507-1605-12 -- -- -- --04-2405-0605-2204-06 --07-2807-2507-2907-15 --05-0105-0104-0807-2107-1903-3107-0307-28 --04-0907-1605-0907-2607-1507-1308-0708-0107-23 --04-21
Peak daily increment 479 45361 1985 7347 2861 6655 10913 12628 4816 66847 98 1825 739 3543 9234 729 1012 190 197 11349 3292 563 540 2693 3308 1017 48 1624 1191 1237 118 1993 441 89 4272 284 1093 9432 1788 927 1624 1859 148 2080 10171 498 1467 1028 893 86
Days from 100 to peak 147 147 51 83 36 135 52 116 27 130 118 117 135 104 128 40 30 39 32 122 135 114 113 59 40 48 59 21 128 125 124 118 34 38 24 118 120 20 106 126 23 117 39 129 120 114 141 146 126 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 142 115 43 64 29 113 34 72 19 116 122 107 129 92 110 35 27 40 32 107 124 108 110 49 30 41 65 15 123 119 126 108 29 41 16 116 113 12 98 120 16 108 41 121 104 111 132 140 121 27
Last total 23287 3317096 123825 383902 456689 2589952 137468 341070 517714 516296 157918 915808 583653 248117 5361165 4155 103357 51250 192654 617994 52819 50681 13159 16137 568879 215586 4802 52064 27470 204483 79676 33885 38930 136499 121278 99693 4142 96738 64267 59469 71755 5659 143704 8444 30086 6980 186669 21997 60608 424901 107674 47794 23018 128531 105882 10118 125693 546552 36900 105750 66635 65056 8462 3227
Last daily increment 252 90653 220 1791 11578 64030 2345 2245 6345 0 4258 5030 4513 1256 47913 84 1161 693 933 4893 300 0 41 57 6329 3023 282 822 304 1842 1044 855 632 0 0 818 27 948 688 1116 825 118 1534 122 259 16 506 142 859 734 1117 901 405 799 1041 94 1350 6879 292 912 713 829 185 44
Last week 1890 281674 2458 10846 69208 374878 12072 14358 37436 38272 28005 30090 23794 7313 316301 444 5622 3663 5731 58248 2177 598 406 805 36768 18202 1327 3151 2800 10471 5348 3223 3948 5353 666 4190 100 4716 3503 6734 4582 707 7358 848 1790 151 2542 984 4378 4041 6826 4233 1746 5219 5447 513 9066 43224 1827 5664 3771 4502 767 177
Days since peak 11 9 104 70 136 15 98 33 123 29 20 30 10 42 30 113 117 106 111 30 17 31 30 95 113 101 85 131 18 21 17 31 106 106 129 25 27 137 43 18 128 30 98 20 31 33 8 14 23 116

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-16 to 2020-08-22

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROSESKNOCH
2020-08-15 317379 1611399 23179 77869 14333 12009 19891 224488 15483 342813 239345 6858 6420 27191 253438 62495 56090 53981 69374 84294 2855 9965 37924
2020-08-16 318500 1623000 23420 78460 14630 12170 19940 224500 15830 342800 240700 6930 6600 27340 253800 63550 57300 54170 70220 84290 2855 10020 38110
2020-08-17 319500 1633000 23640 79010 14740 12180 20120 225200 16100 348500 242100 7046 6784 27470 254100 64610 58270 54360 70990 84790 2858 10070 38280
2020-08-18 320500 1643000 23870 79570 14930 12220 20400 226200 16190 352300 243600 7215 6978 27600 254500 65460 59290 54540 72120 84940 2880 10120 38450
2020-08-19 321400 1653000 24080 80100 15130 12330 20670 227300 16240 354800 245000 7420 7176 27720 254900 66650 60520 54720 73370 85230 2943 10170 38610
2020-08-20 322200 1663000 24290 80640 15210 12410 20930 228400 16390 360200 246300 7680 7379 27840 255300 67800 61770 54900 74590 85580 2989 10220 38770
2020-08-21 323500 1673000 24510 81180 15470 12460 21230 229800 16500 365300 247700 7852 7589 27960 255800 68760 63080 55080 75910 85970 3046 10270 38930
2020-08-22 324400 1683000 24720 81720 15580 12550 21400 230400 16590 365300 249000 8129 7805 28080 256300 69220 64450 55260 77190 85970 3089 10320 39100

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-16 to 2020-08-22

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-08-15 23287 3317096 123825 383902 456689 2589952 137468 341070 517714 516296 157918 915808 583653 248117 5361165 4155 103357 51250 192654 617994 52819 50681 13159 16137 568879 215586 4802 52064 27470 204483 79676 33885 38930 136499 121278 99693 96738 64267 59469 71755 5659 143704 8444 30086 186669 21997 60608 424901 107674 47794 23018 128531 105882 10118 125693 546552 36900 105750 66635 65056 8462
2020-08-16 23680 3345000 124200 386200 474200 2642000 140800 343400 524200 534800 163600 920900 592500 249300 5448000 4234 104500 51920 193800 620600 53210 50790 13230 16180 574900 219400 5118 52340 27880 205600 80430 34430 39250 143500 121400 100400 97200 65280 60550 72650 5771 145100 8570 30360 187100 22150 61440 425500 108800 48610 23650 129100 107000 10210 127500 553700 37400 106700 67270 66060 8820
2020-08-17 24070 3365000 124600 388000 489200 2696000 144300 345800 529000 545600 169300 925900 594700 250400 5505000 4310 105600 52590 194000 631100 53600 50900 13290 16220 580800 221200 5287 52570 28290 206900 81060 35460 39550 147300 121400 101200 97700 65820 61610 73520 5823 146500 8729 30630 187500 22300 62230 426200 109900 49400 24290 130000 108100 10290 129200 559500 37610 107600 67880 66490 9020
2020-08-18 24450 3413000 124900 389400 505700 2754000 147800 348100 535200 557300 175100 930800 596500 251500 5564000 4388 106800 53250 194700 637900 53990 50990 13360 16260 586700 224800 5457 52910 28700 208400 81880 36200 40110 151100 121400 101900 98400 66210 62670 74400 5908 147900 8932 30900 187800 22450 63030 426800 111000 50190 24930 130800 109100 10380 130900 567100 37880 108500 68510 67160 9250
2020-08-19 24840 3470000 125300 390900 521700 2817000 151500 350400 540700 565700 181100 935700 601400 252700 5628000 4463 107900 53900 196100 648200 54380 51090 13420 16290 592500 228400 5728 53410 29100 209900 82500 37380 41010 154800 121400 102600 99000 66710 63720 75270 6065 149200 9093 31160 188200 22600 63820 427400 112100 50980 25580 131600 110200 10460 132600 574600 38140 109400 69120 67740 9480
2020-08-20 25240 3527000 125700 392700 538600 2874000 155300 352700 547600 578000 187300 940600 606500 253800 5685000 4540 109100 54560 197000 655400 54770 51180 13480 16330 598300 231000 6103 53890 29510 211600 83490 38180 41650 158100 121400 103400 99900 67400 64770 76140 6208 150600 9296 31420 188600 22750 64600 428000 113100 51770 26250 132400 111300 10540 134400 581500 38380 110300 69730 68620 9760
2020-08-21 25630 3545000 126000 394500 555000 2938000 159200 355000 553300 598100 193600 945500 611900 254900 5754000 4617 110200 55230 197800 666800 55160 51270 13550 16360 604100 234400 6379 54580 29920 213800 84580 39180 42270 162000 121400 104100 100700 68030 65840 77020 6353 152000 9502 31690 189000 22910 65390 428600 114200 52560 26940 133200 112400 10620 136100 589200 38780 111200 70340 69530 10040
2020-08-22 26030 3620000 126400 396300 573000 3000000 163100 357300 559800 604700 200200 950400 616800 256000 5800000 4694 111400 55890 198800 672300 55550 51370 13610 16400 610000 237300 6709 55220 30340 215600 85570 40190 42930 163600 121500 104800 101600 68730 66910 77900 6477 153400 9703 31950 189300 23060 66190 429200 115300 53360 27650 133900 113500 10700 137800 595800 39090 112100 70960 70440 10280

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-16 to 2020-08-22

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROSESKNOCH
2020-08-15 317379 1611399 23179 77869 14333 12009 19891 224488 15483 342813 239345 6858 6420 27191 253438 62495 56090 53981 69374 84294 2855 9965 37924
2020-08-16 317900 1616000 23220 78180 14400 12080 19960 224600 15590 343800 239800 7052 6502 27230 253600 62980 57030 54090 70290 84290 2864 10000 37990
2020-08-17 318600 1624000 23290 78720 14510 12110 20140 224800 15780 347500 240800 7249 6628 27280 253700 63610 58140 54230 71350 84510 2883 10050 38110
2020-08-18 319400 1633000 23380 79300 14690 12160 20410 225200 15900 351200 241800 7484 6778 27350 253900 64140 59280 54390 72590 84590 2912 10100 38260
2020-08-19 320300 1642000 23490 79870 14870 12250 20670 225700 16010 354400 242900 7744 6940 27430 254000 64810 60540 54550 73920 84740 2954 10150 38410
2020-08-20 321000 1651000 23610 80440 15010 12340 20940 226200 16180 358600 243900 8002 7114 27500 254200 65450 61810 54700 75210 84910 2994 10200 38550
2020-08-21 321800 1661000 23750 81020 15250 12400 21210 226600 16300 362300 245800 8266 7289 27580 254400 66050 63160 54850 76520 85070 3035 10240 38700
2020-08-22 322600 1667000 23880 81610 15410 12500 21380 226900 16450 364300 246900 8541 7452 27650 254600 66590 64580 55010 77860 85070 3069 10290 38840

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-16 to 2020-08-22

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-08-15 23287 3317096 123825 383902 456689 2589952 137468 341070 517714 516296 157918 915808 583653 248117 5361165 4155 103357 51250 192654 617994 52819 50681 13159 16137 568879 215586 4802 52064 27470 204483 79676 33885 38930 136499 121278 99693 96738 64267 59469 71755 5659 143704 8444 30086 186669 21997 60608 424901 107674 47794 23018 128531 105882 10118 125693 546552 36900 105750 66635 65056 8462
2020-08-16 23530 3333000 124100 385700 470700 2645000 140100 342600 522300 529400 163300 918600 586500 249100 5390000 4194 104100 51740 193000 618700 53130 50760 13220 16180 572900 217800 4993 52170 27890 205600 80330 34200 39240 140000 121300 100400 97000 64910 60140 72250 5726 144500 8574 30290 186900 22090 61130 425300 108500 48290 23410 129000 106600 10180 127200 550400 37100 106600 67000 65650 8623
2020-08-17 23810 3348000 124400 387500 486500 2704000 143200 344200 527500 542700 169600 921500 589700 250300 5421000 4247 105300 52370 193400 624200 53450 50860 13280 16230 577900 219900 5234 52350 28330 207100 81080 34900 39700 143300 121400 101100 97500 65510 61040 72910 5782 145800 8744 30540 187200 22220 61780 425900 109400 48970 23850 129800 107400 10250 128800 556300 37340 107500 67440 66070 8783
2020-08-18 24170 3391000 124700 388800 503100 2766000 146400 345900 533500 556100 176000 924400 591900 251400 5457000 4309 106000 52940 193900 628500 53820 50960 13350 16290 583000 223100 5429 52650 28780 208700 81930 35540 40270 147200 121500 101700 98100 66040 61970 73630 5869 146800 8948 30800 187500 22390 62420 426500 110400 49650 24340 130600 108400 10320 130300 563900 37620 108400 67930 66740 8961
2020-08-19 24470 3450000 125000 390300 520000 2831000 149900 347500 539100 568600 182300 927100 595600 252500 5499000 4374 106900 53610 194600 636100 54180 51050 13410 16350 588600 226500 5691 53050 29230 210300 82690 36350 40920 151000 121600 102300 98700 66610 62910 74480 6026 147800 9119 31050 187900 22550 63040 427100 111500 50330 24830 131400 109400 10420 131900 571600 37890 109400 68400 67300 9141
2020-08-20 24850 3509000 125200 392100 537600 2896000 153400 349200 545600 583100 188900 929800 599800 253700 5537000 4439 107900 54310 195200 642100 54560 51140 13460 16410 593700 229200 6051 53470 29680 212000 83610 37060 41520 154600 121700 102900 99500 67320 63860 75380 6170 149300 9314 31330 188200 22700 63700 427700 112600 51020 25300 132200 110300 10490 133600 579000 38160 110300 68860 68190 9361
2020-08-21 25140 3545000 125500 394100 555600 2963000 157300 350700 551800 599800 196300 932300 604400 254800 5581000 4506 109200 55100 195800 648900 54930 51240 13530 16500 599100 232600 6425 53940 30150 213700 84580 37810 42110 158200 121800 103700 100200 68000 64830 76170 6321 150900 9522 31600 188600 22850 64500 428300 113600 51730 25880 133000 111500 10580 135300 587400 38490 111200 69430 69110 9598
2020-08-22 25530 3606000 125800 396000 575000 3031000 161200 352200 558400 612700 204100 934800 609000 255900 5615000 4574 110800 55840 196500 652300 55300 51330 13580 16580 604700 236100 6796 54350 30620 215400 85520 38540 42710 160400 121900 104400 100900 68750 65800 76990 6468 152500 9734 31860 188900 22980 65250 428900 114700 52440 26460 133700 112600 10680 137000 594100 38800 112200 70080 70130 9799

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-08-16 to 2020-08-24

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROSESKNOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-08-15 317379 1611399 23179 77869 14333 12009 19891 224488 15483 342813 239345 6858 6420 27191 253438 62495 56090 53981 69374 84294 2855 9965 37924 23287 3317096 123825 383902 456689 2589952 137468 341070 517714 516296 157918 915808 583653 248117 5361165 4155 103357 51250 192654 617994 52819 50681 13159 16137 568879 215586 4802 52064 27470 204483 79676 33885 38930 136499 121278 99693 96738 64267 59469 71755 5659 143704 8444 30086 186669 21997 60608 424901 107674 47794 23018 128531 105882 10118 125693 546552 36900 105750 66635 65056 8462
2020-08-16 317900 1625000 23210 78100 14500 12100 20130 225700 15640 346600 239300 7034 6505 27210 253800 62980 57370 54080 70890 84420 2883 10020 38110 23770 3359000 124200 385400 468900 2645000 140100 343800 528700 531400 163800 920200 585800 249100 5399000 4224 104300 52310 192900 624400 53270 50910 13230 16150 571900 218000 5060 52910 27860 206000 81120 34250 39640 139500 121300 100400 97100 65750 60020 72390 5728 144800 8623 30400 186900 22110 61190 425500 108300 48320 23510 129300 106900 10190 127400 552700 37130 107000 67140 65650 8653
2020-08-17 318900 1638000 23330 78510 14650 12190 20390 226800 15740 351200 241500 7192 6609 27250 254200 63600 58290 54260 72160 84670 2909 10080 38270 24150 3414000 124600 386700 479600 2691000 142800 346500 536800 540800 168000 924700 588000 250200 5447000 4294 105300 53270 193500 630500 53580 51030 13300 16230 576100 220600 5326 53410 28250 207700 82590 34680 40190 141300 121300 101000 97800 66890 60860 73140 5819 145800 8803 30680 187100 22250 61740 426200 109000 48870 23950 130100 107800 10280 128900 558500 37360 107900 67580 66270 8805
2020-08-18 319800 1652000 23440 78930 14760 12280 20660 227800 15780 355900 243600 7377 6707 27270 254600 65310 59210 54420 73530 84850 2951 10130 38450 24480 3479000 125100 387700 490700 2748000 145300 349000 544100 550800 172800 929600 590200 251300 5490000 4367 106100 54100 194100 636400 53940 51150 13370 16310 580700 223100 5577 54200 28560 209200 83620 35320 40930 142600 121300 101700 98500 67740 61640 73620 5915 146700 8959 30970 187300 22370 62200 427000 109700 49340 24420 130600 108700 10380 130300 563700 37590 108800 68050 66810 8968
2020-08-19 320700 1664000 23570 79390 14880 12390 20910 228800 15860 360200 245700 7558 6781 27290 255100 66460 59880 54590 74800 85020 2997 10180 38670 24760 3519000 125400 388600 500700 2799000 147100 351700 551400 558200 175800 934400 592500 252200 5528000 4427 107000 54820 194600 641900 54250 51260 13440 16310 585500 225300 5799 54630 28850 210800 84620 35740 41520 143800 121300 102400 99200 68260 62310 74170 5992 147700 9108 31300 187400 22500 62640 427700 110200 49790 24760 131100 109400 10470 131500 568500 37770 109600 68540 67340 9115
2020-08-20 321400 1680000 23650 79760 14990 12470 21200 229800 15920 365200 248000 7706 6853 27290 255600 66460 60430 54710 75760 85080 3039 10230 38870 24980 3559000 125800 389000 509200 2847000 148700 354600 553500 567400 178600 938800 594500 252900 5565000 4473 107700 55460 195100 647100 54580 51370 13510 16310 589800 227700 6024 54710 29110 212500 85000 36060 42030 144600 121300 103000 99900 68560 63030 74640 6070 148400 9228 31570 187400 22620 63010 428500 110700 50340 25130 131300 110100 10520 132700 572900 37970 110500 69020 67850 9181
2020-08-21 322000 1695000 23730 80150 15050 12570 21470 230800 15950 370400 249600 7905 6971 27290 255900 66460 61480 54830 77020 85100 3090 10280 39040 25220 3616000 126200 389600 518100 2904000 150900 357400 562100 574100 182000 943500 596500 253700 5601000 4543 108400 56290 195600 651500 54860 51480 13580 16310 593600 229800 6275 54760 29340 214100 85670 36590 42640 145000 121300 103700 100600 68870 63700 75220 6141 149100 9366 31880 187500 22730 63440 429300 111100 50770 25480 131500 110700 10600 133700 576700 38160 111100 69470 68210 9332
2020-08-22 322500 1712000 23790 80460 15130 12650 21770 232300 15960 376000 249900 8054 7054 27290 256500 66460 62180 54920 77950 85100 3106 10320 39190 25360 3655000 126700 390000 526200 2941000 152700 360500 567800 581200 185100 947900 598300 254300 5630000 4594 108900 56940 196100 655400 55270 51580 13650 16310 597200 232000 6558 54770 29570 215500 86640 36960 43100 145100 121300 104300 101300 68920 64330 75650 6212 149700 9491 32140 187500 22830 63680 430300 111400 51110 25790 131800 111300 10680 134800 580100 38340 111500 69760 68670 9453
2020-08-23 322800 1729000 23880 80710 15180 12730 22110 233800 15980 382000 250100 8238 7113 27290 257100 66460 62870 55030 79080 85100 3108 10370 39330 25520 3709000 127000 390100 534600 3003000 154500 364100 573700 589200 188400 952400 600100 254800 5657000 4649 109200 57580 196600 659500 55570 51670 13720 16310 600400 234100 6759 54810 29750 216900 87700 37540 43650 145500 121300 104900 102000 69270 64890 75990 6278 150300 9605 32320 187500 22920 64040 430900 111800 51490 26040 132200 111900 10750 135700 583500 38480 111900 70050 69190 9576
2020-08-24 323100 1750000 23880 80860 15230 12820 22380 234800 15980 384200 250100 8390 7228 27290 257600 66460 63710 55120 79960 85100 3110 10450 39440 25710 3748000 127500 390200 541500 3040000 156200 367400 578600 596500 190800 957600 602100 255200 5689000 4701 109600 58180 197100 662200 55780 51790 13780 16310 602800 236100 6987 54850 29910 218400 88410 37930 44130 145600 121300 105600 102600 69360 65450 76370 6327 150800 9711 32530 187500 23000 64330 431600 111900 51840 26310 132400 112400 10820 136600 587400 38600 112300 70310 69510 9689

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed