COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-08-20


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-08-20

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-1507-2003-2804-0303-2704-06 --04-0404-12 -- --04-1004-1003-2403-31 --04-1008-1306-03 -- --03-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4726 29657 810 1470 243 278 283 5662 316 146 19786 105 1116 5649 1079 830 1243 1337 240 1139
Days from 100 to peak 36 71 18 38 122 15 22 25 28 22 43 20 27 30 25 28 152 89 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 121 14 21 14 27 22 24 23 21 20 19 23 142 82 18 17
Last total 322280 1682687 24431 80178 14962 12392 21045 231292 16056 377906 7842 242413 7934 7329 5046 27676 256118 65054 59378 54992 74963 85810 2536 3102 10197 39026
Last daily increment 1182 15235 347 699 142 123 247 1586 116 7039 37 -125 250 255 44 129 840 529 767 291 1346 399 43 80 35 266
Last week 5913 81130 1555 3065 719 458 1352 7501 677 35093 142 6299 1302 1071 193 681 3309 3214 4059 1209 6917 1516 167 301 289 1355
Days since peak 135 140 147 127 31 145 139 146 136 138 130 132 132 149 142 132 7 78 147 146

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-08-20

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date07-3008-1205-0306-06 -- -- --04-0107-23 --08-1705-0907-1604-1407-1907-2707-1607-2307-0407-2004-2404-2005-0108-1407-1707-3008-1607-1507-1805-1208-13 -- --07-1904-2405-0605-2204-0608-0207-2807-2307-2907-20 --05-0105-0104-0807-2207-1903-3107-0307-2807-2004-0907-1805-0907-2307-1607-1808-0708-0107-2308-0104-21
Peak daily increment 470 45670 1985 7346 2861 6694 4849 10914 12483 4816 67797 95 1805 744 3543 9481 729 1012 190 207 11222 3286 238 540 544 2693 898 2254 3308 1017 48 1624 697 1188 1265 118 2004 441 89 4272 288 1126 9432 1788 930 335 1624 1868 148 2084 9847 503 1465 1082 905 133 86
Days from 100 to peak 142 151 51 83 36 126 154 52 119 27 132 119 117 122 104 132 40 30 39 142 123 136 143 114 115 58 146 125 40 47 59 21 134 128 123 124 123 33 38 24 119 120 20 106 126 122 23 119 39 126 121 119 141 146 126 125 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 138 121 43 64 29 105 137 34 75 19 118 123 107 116 92 114 35 27 40 142 108 125 141 109 112 49 141 118 30 41 65 15 128 123 116 126 113 29 41 16 117 113 12 98 120 120 16 110 41 118 105 116 132 140 121 127 27
Last total 24407 3501975 125625 391849 513719 2905825 147211 352558 543806 558420 178022 939833 599940 254520 5573847 4519 107483 53991 196280 652267 54211 51220 13409 16451 587804 227569 5821 54528 29107 213665 83277 35907 41626 140573 114959 102229 4252 99419 67188 64280 75449 6072 149904 9242 31182 7048 188203 22637 63584 427803 112003 50652 24165 131692 109320 10691 133073 579892 38286 109879 69166 68233 8987 3457
Last daily increment 171 45323 217 1812 11541 68900 2266 2279 6775 9099 4248 4767 3880 1412 44023 82 699 561 723 4993 329 119 55 72 4543 3080 235 1009 430 1835 941 488 700 918 -6319 580 18 529 695 962 894 116 1979 274 320 12 154 202 556 601 1122 736 295 787 909 125 1445 5259 382 860 691 740 180 26
Last week 1372 226455 2020 9738 68608 379903 12088 13733 32437 42124 24362 29055 20800 7659 260595 448 5287 3434 4559 39166 1692 539 291 371 25254 15006 1301 3286 1941 11024 4645 2877 3328 4074 -6319 3354 137 3629 3609 5927 4519 531 7734 920 1355 84 2040 782 3835 3636 5446 3759 1552 3960 4479 667 8730 40219 1678 5041 3244 4006 710 274
Days since peak 21 8 109 75 141 28 3 103 35 128 32 24 35 28 47 31 118 122 111 6 34 21 4 36 33 100 7 32 118 106 90 136 18 23 28 22 31 111 111 134 29 32 142 48 23 31 133 33 103 28 35 33 13 19 28 19 121

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-21 to 2020-08-27

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROSESKNOCH
2020-08-20 322280 1682687 24431 80178 14962 12392 21045 231292 16056 377906 242413 7934 7329 27676 256118 65054 59378 54992 74963 85810 3102 10197 39026
2020-08-21 323000 1695000 24700 81030 15340 12470 21290 231600 16250 377900 244100 8340 7583 27760 256600 65580 60050 55190 76350 86200 3166 10250 39320
2020-08-22 323900 1707000 24950 81710 15420 12530 21470 232400 16430 377900 245700 8640 7843 27840 257200 66080 60710 55380 77630 86230 3227 10300 39590
2020-08-23 324900 1718000 25210 82190 15440 12610 21580 233000 16600 378100 247200 8930 8108 27910 257900 66580 61360 55560 78670 86230 3288 10350 39870
2020-08-24 325800 1730000 25460 82500 15580 12680 21750 234400 16770 388400 248600 9170 8380 27980 258300 67070 62010 55740 79390 86890 3348 10400 40130
2020-08-25 326700 1741000 25710 82810 15750 12750 22030 235500 16940 394600 250100 9490 8660 28060 258900 67560 62650 55920 80440 87040 3409 10450 40400
2020-08-26 327500 1753000 25970 83350 15880 12820 22330 237000 17110 400400 251500 9790 8949 28130 259500 68050 63300 56100 81800 87270 3470 10490 40660
2020-08-27 328500 1764000 26220 84000 16000 12890 22570 238300 17290 406500 253000 10090 9248 28200 260100 68550 63960 56280 83130 87630 3531 10540 40930

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-21 to 2020-08-27

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-20 24407 3501975 125625 391849 513719 2905825 147211 352558 543806 558420 178022 939833 599940 254520 5573847 4519 107483 53991 196280 652267 54211 51220 13409 16451 587804 227569 5821 54528 29107 213665 83277 35907 41626 140573 102229 99419 67188 64280 75449 6072 149904 9242 31182 188203 22637 63584 427803 112003 50652 24165 131692 109320 10691 133073 579892 38286 109879 69166 68233 8987 3457
2020-08-21 24710 3563000 126000 394300 528200 3011000 151300 354800 551900 565400 182200 944200 609000 255800 5670000 4592 108200 54980 198200 664800 54530 51300 13470 16540 598100 232300 6036 54830 29900 215400 84440 36170 42250 141600 102800 100400 67970 65250 76240 6255 152200 9370 31600 188500 22820 63960 428400 113700 51070 24580 132800 110100 10790 134600 589900 38710 110700 69760 69330 9131 3494
2020-08-22 25010 3603000 126300 396000 543300 3112000 155000 357100 557900 572300 186200 948500 613100 256900 5723000 4663 108900 55590 199200 670000 54850 51370 13530 16620 604300 235200 6245 55510 30230 217100 85420 36830 42890 142700 103500 101200 68640 66200 76980 6369 153900 9530 31800 188900 22990 64350 429000 114700 51470 24930 133400 110800 10880 136200 596100 38960 111600 70330 70140 9280 3529
2020-08-23 25310 3622000 126700 397800 558800 3206000 158500 359300 561800 579400 190300 952800 616500 258100 5770000 4734 109500 56120 200100 675300 55160 51450 13590 16700 608200 236900 6459 55890 30310 218800 86150 36930 43030 143700 104100 101500 69320 67150 77760 6442 155300 9670 31930 189200 23160 64750 429600 115200 51880 25140 133900 111500 10970 137700 602500 39220 112400 70910 70760 9379 3565
2020-08-24 25620 3640000 127000 399300 575000 3304000 162000 361500 565600 586300 194400 957000 619000 259300 5811000 4803 110200 56560 200500 682000 55470 51530 13640 16770 611000 238400 6670 56190 30640 220400 86680 37540 43600 144700 104700 102000 69850 68090 78500 6475 156700 9780 32120 189500 23320 65150 430200 115900 52270 25320 134500 112200 11060 139200 608100 39400 113200 71480 71170 9451 3599
2020-08-25 25920 3688000 127400 400600 591700 3400000 165400 363700 571000 593400 198500 961200 621400 260400 5862000 4873 110900 56980 201300 689700 55780 51600 13700 16850 615500 241400 6884 56550 31040 222000 87510 37820 44180 145700 105300 102600 70180 69040 79240 6539 158000 9970 32380 189900 23490 65550 430800 116900 52660 25550 135100 112900 11150 140700 615600 39620 114000 72050 71440 9547 3634
2020-08-26 26230 3736000 127700 401700 609000 3510000 169100 365900 576200 600400 202600 965500 624600 261600 5914000 4944 111500 57630 202000 698600 56090 51680 13760 16920 620200 244100 7101 56930 31430 223700 87990 38370 44870 146700 105900 103200 70640 69990 79980 6659 159200 10170 32570 190200 23650 65950 431300 117800 53060 25730 135700 113600 11240 142300 621800 39860 114800 72630 72390 9628 3668
2020-08-27 26540 3783000 128000 403400 626800 3623000 173000 368200 582500 607600 206800 969700 628900 262800 5958000 5015 112200 58200 202800 704500 56410 51760 13820 17000 625000 246800 7323 57730 31890 225300 88940 38800 45520 147700 106500 103900 71350 70950 80730 6776 160800 10470 32880 190500 23820 66360 431900 118900 53450 26020 136500 114300 11330 143800 627500 40200 115700 73200 73130 9779 3703

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-21 to 2020-08-27

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROSESKNOCH
2020-08-20 322280 1682687 24431 80178 14962 12392 21045 231292 16056 377906 242413 7934 7329 27676 256118 65054 59378 54992 74963 85810 3102 10197 39026
2020-08-21 322900 1693000 24510 80670 15130 12450 21280 231400 16160 380100 244100 8162 7498 27730 256200 65450 59980 55060 76030 86050 3139 10240 39130
2020-08-22 323600 1703000 24680 81230 15200 12530 21440 231700 16280 383400 245500 8411 7698 27800 256400 65920 60680 55210 77230 86050 3196 10290 39280
2020-08-23 324400 1711000 24870 81730 15260 12590 21550 231900 16390 386900 246500 8659 7914 27880 256700 66380 61360 55380 78320 86050 3258 10330 39430
2020-08-24 325100 1723000 25050 82200 15380 12620 21720 232600 16510 393700 248100 8881 8120 27960 256800 66820 62040 55540 79260 86380 3316 10380 39590
2020-08-25 325800 1733000 25230 82680 15550 12690 21980 233000 16630 399200 249100 9131 8326 28040 257000 67310 62720 55700 80380 86440 3376 10430 39740
2020-08-26 326500 1743000 25430 83230 15700 12790 22230 233600 16750 404500 250300 9422 8543 28120 257300 67790 63430 55870 81670 86550 3448 10470 39910
2020-08-27 327300 1753000 25610 83790 15810 12870 22490 234000 16870 409700 251600 9731 8788 28200 257500 68260 64180 56030 82960 86730 3514 10520 40070

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-21 to 2020-08-27

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-20 24407 3501975 125625 391849 513719 2905825 147211 352558 543806 558420 178022 939833 599940 254520 5573847 4519 107483 53991 196280 652267 54211 51220 13409 16451 587804 227569 5821 54528 29107 213665 83277 35907 41626 140573 102229 99419 67188 64280 75449 6072 149904 9242 31182 188203 22637 63584 427803 112003 50652 24165 131692 109320 10691 133073 579892 38286 109879 69166 68233 8987 3457
2020-08-21 24550 3546000 125800 393700 528000 2994000 150300 353900 548300 564400 181800 942600 602800 255500 5616000 4567 107900 54560 196800 658900 54500 51270 13470 16520 592200 230400 6028 54710 29510 215100 84160 36210 42080 141100 102800 100100 67740 65070 75730 6192 150300 9380 31410 188500 22700 64100 428400 113000 51050 24420 132400 109700 10740 134200 587500 38550 110700 69650 68950 9083 3474
2020-08-22 24790 3586000 126100 395400 544100 3093000 153900 355500 553900 571800 186000 945300 605900 256700 5651000 4632 108500 55150 197500 663200 54800 51340 13520 16610 597000 233100 6305 55270 29870 216800 85060 36750 42670 141600 103400 100800 68340 65990 76290 6309 151200 9570 31630 188800 22820 64730 429000 114000 51580 24710 133000 110400 10830 135600 593700 38820 111500 70290 69750 9213 3505
2020-08-23 24990 3605000 126300 397200 560700 3191000 157300 356900 558400 579300 190200 947900 608700 257800 5680000 4698 109100 55710 198000 668100 55100 51410 13580 16690 601100 235200 6542 55690 30110 218400 85850 37030 43080 142600 104000 101200 68940 66900 76810 6389 152200 9750 31820 189200 22950 65340 429500 114500 52130 24950 133600 111000 10950 137000 600000 39080 112400 70800 70370 9318 3540
2020-08-24 25170 3620000 126500 398700 577600 3288000 160600 358400 562800 586800 194500 950300 611200 259000 5703000 4764 109700 56220 198400 673800 55340 51470 13630 16770 604700 237000 6779 56070 30460 220100 86530 37560 43650 143200 104600 101700 69510 67820 77380 6430 153000 9920 32040 189500 23050 65940 430100 115100 52670 25180 134200 111600 11030 138400 605600 39300 113200 71220 70760 9407 3571
2020-08-25 25420 3668000 126800 400100 595400 3392000 164000 359800 568400 594400 198900 952700 614100 260200 5735000 4831 110300 56730 199000 679800 55630 51540 13690 16860 608900 240100 7026 56450 30890 221600 87370 37910 44200 144300 105100 102300 70030 68750 78030 6499 153900 10130 32280 189900 23170 66550 430700 116000 53220 25420 134800 112300 11100 139800 613000 39570 114100 71680 71100 9513 3605
2020-08-26 25640 3719000 127000 401500 613900 3501000 167600 361300 574000 602100 203400 955000 617600 261400 5770000 4899 110900 57410 199700 686400 55920 51600 13750 16940 614000 243200 7330 56900 31330 223400 88100 38390 44860 145200 105600 102900 70590 69700 78810 6640 154700 10330 32520 190300 23310 67110 431300 117100 53780 25680 135600 112900 11200 141300 620000 39840 114900 72170 71970 9616 3640
2020-08-27 25840 3771000 127200 403300 632900 3617000 171400 362700 580100 610000 207900 957300 621300 262600 5802000 4968 111500 58060 200400 691800 56240 51670 13800 17030 619100 246000 7690 57410 31810 225100 89040 38800 45480 145900 106200 103600 71240 70650 79500 6779 155800 10590 32800 190600 23450 67670 431900 118200 54350 25960 136300 113600 11290 142800 626700 40130 115800 72790 72750 9743 3669

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-08-21 to 2020-08-29

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROSESKNOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-20 322280 1682687 24431 80178 14962 12392 21045 231292 16056 377906 242413 7934 7329 27676 256118 65054 59378 54992 74963 85810 3102 10197 39026 24407 3501975 125625 391849 513719 2905825 147211 352558 543806 558420 178022 939833 599940 254520 5573847 4519 107483 53991 196280 652267 54211 51220 13409 16451 587804 227569 5821 54528 29107 213665 83277 35907 41626 140573 102229 99419 67188 64280 75449 6072 149904 9242 31182 188203 22637 63584 427803 112003 50652 24165 131692 109320 10691 133073 579892 38286 109879 69166 68233 8987 3457
2020-08-21 322800 1696000 24650 80690 15070 12470 21290 232200 16210 381700 245400 8227 7455 27700 256500 65840 60330 55110 76250 86000 3149 10280 39280 24660 3545000 126000 393300 524800 2967000 150000 355400 548000 567300 182000 944600 602800 255700 5615000 4565 107800 54830 196700 659800 54520 51250 13470 16740 591700 229900 6057 55320 29420 215100 84500 36450 42220 141200 102900 100200 67760 64910 75870 6155 152000 9350 31410 188700 22730 64160 428500 112800 50970 24390 132400 109600 10770 134300 586400 38540 110800 69810 68820 9121 3494
2020-08-22 323500 1713000 25000 81200 15170 12550 21630 233700 16340 386300 246200 8419 7608 27780 257100 66490 61080 55320 77520 86340 3203 10330 39500 24870 3590000 126400 394100 534500 3029000 152700 357900 552400 574000 186200 949900 605500 257100 5655000 4615 108200 55790 197300 667200 54820 51320 13540 16890 595200 232200 6270 56140 29680 216700 85520 36930 42800 141700 103500 100900 68240 65690 76400 6225 154200 9510 31680 189100 22830 64620 429200 113600 51330 24620 133200 109900 10870 135400 591700 38780 111600 70360 69350 9237 3525
2020-08-23 324500 1726000 25320 81700 15260 12650 21880 235000 16490 392300 247300 8646 7859 27890 257600 67090 61960 55530 78930 86650 3267 10390 39710 25040 3637000 126700 394600 544900 3094000 155200 360500 556500 583200 190500 954500 608000 258100 5690000 4662 108600 56640 197800 673200 55160 51390 13610 17070 598700 234400 6474 56680 29990 218500 86500 37440 43390 142200 104100 101500 68660 66310 76740 6293 156300 9690 31920 189500 22930 65030 429800 114400 51730 24830 133800 110400 10990 136500 596600 39000 112700 70850 69820 9375 3559
2020-08-24 325500 1741000 25660 82010 15340 12740 22130 236300 16700 399300 248100 8894 8032 28000 258100 67540 62730 55730 80180 87020 3317 10450 39980 25230 3672000 127000 395500 555200 3158000 157400 363300 560000 590400 194500 959200 610100 259200 5727000 4699 109000 57330 198400 678900 55470 51460 13670 17170 601800 236200 6673 57520 30210 220100 87560 37890 43990 142700 104700 102300 69190 66960 77140 6358 158400 9870 32150 190000 23030 65420 430500 115000 52120 25030 134500 110800 11090 137500 601100 39200 113300 71370 70280 9495 3591
2020-08-25 326800 1756000 26150 82320 15390 12830 22400 237800 16860 399700 249000 9068 8162 28060 258700 67820 62730 55940 81280 87290 3317 10520 40210 25390 3712000 127400 395900 562700 3204000 159100 365800 563200 590400 197600 964100 612200 260100 5759000 4747 109400 57490 198800 684500 55790 51530 13700 17230 604800 238200 6849 57520 30430 222000 88320 37990 44460 143100 105100 103100 69630 67610 77470 6411 159400 9990 32400 190500 23110 65790 431200 115600 52420 25220 135200 111200 11210 138400 604600 39390 113900 71850 70650 9495 3633
2020-08-26 327800 1772000 26750 82720 15460 12910 22580 239600 17010 399700 249600 9279 8292 28130 259300 68190 62730 56140 82480 87510 3317 10590 40400 25500 3757000 127800 396800 571500 3258000 161500 368200 566800 590400 201400 969700 614100 260900 5786000 4782 109800 57580 199200 689500 56100 51610 13750 17280 607200 240000 7055 57520 30620 223800 89650 38070 45120 143500 105600 103800 70050 68120 77820 6471 161000 10130 32640 190900 23200 66130 431800 116000 52730 25370 135800 111600 11300 139200 608500 39590 114500 72220 71000 9495 3658
2020-08-27 328800 1800000 27220 83140 15510 12990 22760 241300 17220 401200 250100 9432 8426 28200 259700 68730 62730 56360 83550 87700 3317 10650 40520 25640 3786000 128200 397500 579800 3309000 163700 370300 569200 590400 204500 974900 615900 261600 5816000 4819 110100 57770 199700 693900 56410 51680 13790 17350 608700 241500 7250 57520 30790 225500 90450 38170 45790 143900 106200 104400 70490 68590 78150 6527 161100 10280 32860 191200 23270 66390 432300 116400 52980 25520 136600 111900 11420 140100 611200 39760 115100 72600 71320 9504 3686
2020-08-28 329800 1824000 27770 83480 15560 13110 22970 243100 17360 403400 250400 9597 8564 28270 260000 69320 62730 56610 84480 87860 3317 10700 40620 25760 3820000 128500 398300 588400 3350000 165400 372800 571900 590400 207400 979900 617700 262200 5839000 4849 110400 58160 200100 698200 56660 51730 13840 17350 611000 242800 7448 57520 30930 227300 91460 38390 46250 144400 106600 105200 70860 69060 78470 6573 161500 10400 33080 191600 23340 66630 432700 116700 53230 25650 137300 112300 11510 140900 614500 39900 115500 73010 71650 9560 3726
2020-08-29 331300 1836000 28280 83720 15610 13200 23130 244700 17420 403500 250800 9783 8734 28340 260100 69710 62730 56900 85450 87860 3317 10750 40820 25900 3839000 128700 398900 595800 3397000 167000 375700 574600 590400 210700 983600 619200 262800 5863000 4869 110800 58160 200500 702000 56980 51760 13890 17350 612800 243800 7640 57520 31060 229000 92120 38460 46800 144700 107100 105900 71260 69420 78790 6619 161700 10500 33310 192100 23420 66760 433300 117100 53450 25750 138200 112700 11600 141700 617000 40040 116000 73380 71920 9574 3762

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed