COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-08-26


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-08-26

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-1507-2403-28 --03-2704-0403-2604-0404-12 -- --04-1004-1003-2403-3108-2204-1008-1006-03 -- --03-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4727 29540 808 1470 243 283 5662 316 8024 146 19307 105 1117 5643 1079 766 830 1232 1314 240 1137
Days from 100 to peak 36 71 18 38 126 15 25 26 23 22 43 20 27 30 25 160 28 148 89 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 125 13 14 25 13 22 24 23 21 20 19 155 23 139 82 18 17
Last total 328846 1801888 26033 83030 15751 12965 22951 239010 16537 419849 8002 275640 9280 8888 5288 28363 262540 68114 63802 56274 81646 87072 2722 3536 10504 40645
Last daily increment 1048 21145 327 583 162 139 403 1427 57 7296 21 5185 293 358 73 162 1366 571 729 362 1256 181 36 84 50 383
Last week 6566 119201 1602 2852 789 573 1906 7718 481 41943 160 33227 1346 1559 242 687 6422 3060 4424 1282 6683 1262 186 434 307 1619
Days since peak 141 146 153 133 33 151 152 144 153 144 136 138 138 155 148 4 138 16 84 153 152

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-08-26

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date07-3007-2905-0306-0608-23 -- --04-0107-24 -- --05-0907-1604-1407-2407-2607-1607-2607-0407-2004-2404-2005-0108-1407-1707-2908-22 --07-1705-12 -- -- --07-2604-2405-0605-2204-0607-2607-2607-24 --07-24 --05-0105-0104-0807-2607-2603-3107-0307-2607-2604-0907-16 --07-2707-1607-1008-0708-0107-2607-2904-21
Peak daily increment 475 45579 1990 7363 16267 2860 6717 10914 12484 4816 67719 105 1805 754 3551 9258 729 1011 190 217 11222 3332 256 536 2694 2299 3312 1017 48 1627 708 1237 1310 1993 441 89 4272 299 1121 9436 1810 997 337 1624 1837 2215 9846 495 1445 1077 909 133 86
Days from 100 to peak 142 135 51 83 157 36 127 52 120 27 137 118 117 125 104 132 40 30 39 142 124 135 149 114 59 132 40 47 60 21 127 126 124 127 33 38 24 123 127 21 106 124 128 23 117 130 121 111 141 146 129 122 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 137 107 43 64 110 29 106 34 75 19 123 122 107 119 92 114 35 27 40 142 108 124 147 111 49 124 30 41 65 15 121 120 117 118 29 41 16 121 120 12 98 118 126 16 108 121 105 108 132 140 124 124 27
Last total 25322 3717156 128380 402365 572243 3310234 160165 365606 573888 607382 202361 968297 615701 262507 5821819 4893 112126 57229 199459 687004 55973 51999 13684 16710 607836 241897 7236 58790 30768 225580 89359 39880 45230 144770 116684 105486 4388 104022 71109 70057 80110 6785 158985 10467 32569 7150 190009 23414 66666 431340 117584 54830 25571 135279 114093 11571 141097 610648 40107 115448 71904 72260 9544 3680
Last daily increment 118 47161 477 1380 10130 85687 2306 2243 5267 6944 5197 4642 2684 1313 44109 52 1172 675 187 5972 193 185 0 25 3196 2757 275 1196 306 2191 938 1019 662 844 314 440 20 869 526 1205 904 161 1244 238 371 0 298 197 253 566 1089 665 180 519 605 66 1890 6320 340 822 448 768 145 48
Last week 915 215181 2755 10516 58524 404409 12954 13048 30082 48962 24339 28464 15761 7987 247972 374 4643 3238 3179 34737 1762 779 275 259 20032 14328 1415 4262 1661 11915 6082 3973 3604 4197 1725 3257 136 4603 3921 5777 4661 713 9081 1225 1387 102 1806 777 3082 3537 5581 4178 1406 3587 4773 880 8024 30756 1821 5569 2738 4027 557 223
Days since peak 27 28 115 81 3 147 33 109 41 134 33 31 41 31 53 37 124 128 117 12 40 28 4 40 106 31 124 112 96 142 31 31 33 33 117 117 140 31 31 148 54 31 31 139 41 30 41 47 19 25 31 28 127

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-27 to 2020-09-02

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESKNOCH
2020-08-26 328846 1801888 26033 83030 15751 12965 22951 239010 16537 419849 275640 9280 8888 5288 28363 262540 68114 63802 56274 81646 87072 3536 10504 40645
2020-08-27 329600 1817000 26310 83850 15920 12990 23350 239800 16630 419800 279300 9650 9270 5324 28460 263500 68620 64490 56490 83090 87560 3618 10550 40880
2020-08-28 330700 1831000 26580 84570 16090 13090 24010 241500 16730 427500 282600 10020 9660 5356 28550 264600 69120 65160 56690 84390 87850 3701 10600 41100
2020-08-29 331900 1846000 26840 85110 16100 13190 24450 242300 16820 428100 285900 10410 10070 5388 28640 265700 69600 65840 56890 85550 87850 3784 10650 41320
2020-08-30 332900 1860000 27100 85530 16210 13250 24810 242700 16910 428100 289000 10800 10500 5419 28730 266800 70090 66510 57080 86490 87850 3870 10700 41530
2020-08-31 333700 1874000 27360 85700 16310 13300 25300 244200 17010 444100 292100 11210 10940 5450 28820 267700 70580 67180 57270 87200 88470 3958 10740 41730
2020-09-01 334700 1889000 27620 85960 16480 13370 25920 245600 17100 451200 295200 11630 11400 5481 28900 268600 71060 67850 57460 88220 88600 4048 10790 41940
2020-09-02 335600 1903000 27890 86520 16630 13490 26480 247000 17190 457600 298400 12070 11880 5512 28990 269700 71560 68530 57650 89510 88780 4140 10840 42150

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-27 to 2020-09-02

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-26 25322 3717156 128380 402365 572243 3310234 160165 365606 573888 607382 202361 968297 615701 262507 5821819 4893 112126 57229 199459 687004 55973 51999 13684 16710 607836 241897 7236 58790 30768 225580 89359 39880 45230 144770 116684 105486 104022 71109 70057 80110 6785 158985 10467 32569 190009 23414 66666 431340 117584 54830 25571 135279 114093 11571 141097 610648 40107 115448 71904 72260 9544 3680
2020-08-27 25440 3773000 128700 404300 581800 3453000 163400 367800 581000 622600 211400 972900 621000 263700 5847000 4956 112100 58040 201300 699000 56280 52000 13740 16710 610500 245500 7454 59810 31110 226800 91300 40680 46280 145600 116900 105800 104500 71740 71010 80860 6967 160000 10700 32880 190300 23540 67200 431900 118800 55470 25930 136400 114800 11810 143400 620800 40420 116300 72400 73130 9720 3716
2020-08-28 25550 3805000 129000 406100 591100 3574000 166800 369900 586000 639200 220800 977400 624800 264900 5877000 5020 112200 58730 201900 706300 56570 52060 13790 16720 613000 248100 7660 61280 31440 229000 93400 41640 47310 146300 117400 106100 104800 72440 71930 81570 7154 161700 10940 33130 190600 23670 67740 432500 119800 56090 26170 137000 115500 12020 145000 626300 40780 117200 72900 73900 9810 3751
2020-08-29 25660 3849000 129400 407800 600500 3693000 170200 372000 591700 649500 230000 981800 628400 266100 5902000 5083 112300 59250 202500 710900 56870 52150 13840 16720 615400 250600 7874 62680 31770 231200 95600 42590 48300 147100 117700 106400 105900 73150 72850 82280 7346 163200 11190 33280 190900 23800 68280 433100 120800 56720 26450 137700 116300 12260 146200 630000 41060 118100 73380 74770 9920 3786
2020-08-30 25770 3869000 129800 409600 609600 3812000 173700 374100 595200 667200 239600 986200 631000 267200 5920000 5146 112500 59640 202800 715200 57150 52240 13890 16730 617800 252100 8081 63860 32100 232800 97500 43590 49340 147800 117800 106700 106500 73820 73760 82980 7542 164500 11440 33400 191300 23930 68820 433600 121300 57330 26660 138100 117000 12470 147700 634800 41310 118900 73870 75250 10010 3821
2020-08-31 25870 3887000 130100 411300 618900 3927000 177300 376200 598600 682300 249500 990600 633000 268400 5946000 5210 112600 59990 203200 722100 57440 52330 13940 16740 620200 254200 8292 65030 32430 234300 99800 44610 50400 148600 118100 106900 107100 74440 74670 83670 7742 165600 11700 33570 191600 24050 69360 434200 122100 57950 26860 138700 117700 12620 148400 639400 41490 119700 74360 75640 10060 3855
2020-09-01 25980 3931000 130500 412500 628100 4045000 180900 378300 602800 694600 259600 995000 634300 269500 5966000 5274 112800 60360 203800 727500 57730 52420 13990 16750 622500 256200 8504 66380 32760 235900 101900 45650 51490 149400 118600 107200 107800 74770 75580 84370 7947 166800 11960 33840 191900 24180 69910 434700 122800 58570 27060 139200 118400 12750 149000 645100 41750 120600 74850 76050 10130 3890
2020-09-02 26090 3977000 130900 413800 637500 4160000 184500 380400 608100 707400 270100 999400 637200 270700 6007000 5338 113000 61020 204100 734000 58010 52510 14040 16750 624900 259000 8719 67920 33100 237900 103600 46720 52600 150100 118700 107500 108600 75250 76500 85070 8158 167800 12220 34140 192200 24310 70450 435300 123900 59200 27240 139700 119100 12800 150800 651100 42060 121400 75340 76890 10250 3925

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-27 to 2020-09-02

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESKNOCH
2020-08-26 328846 1801888 26033 83030 15751 12965 22951 239010 16537 419849 275640 9280 8888 5288 28363 262540 68114 63802 56274 81646 87072 3536 10504 40645
2020-08-27 329500 1810000 26310 83540 15820 12990 23330 239400 16620 422600 277100 9490 9130 5302 28410 262800 68490 64440 56370 82790 87270 3592 10540 40750
2020-08-28 330400 1823000 26590 84120 15940 13080 23890 240300 16720 427700 282200 9740 9420 5331 28500 263200 68950 65200 56550 84000 87420 3673 10580 40910
2020-08-29 331400 1835000 26850 84630 15990 13170 24250 240700 16820 430100 285300 10000 9720 5358 28600 263700 69430 65950 56740 85140 87420 3754 10620 41080
2020-08-30 332300 1846000 27080 85100 16090 13220 24550 240900 16920 432500 288200 10300 10040 5385 28690 264200 69860 66620 56920 86180 87420 3833 10660 41250
2020-08-31 333000 1862000 27310 85470 16190 13260 24920 241500 17020 443900 291300 10550 10360 5416 28790 264600 70350 67300 57090 87140 87730 3914 10710 41410
2020-09-01 333900 1874000 27560 85940 16340 13310 25370 242100 17130 449700 294200 10860 10690 5440 28880 265000 70830 67980 57270 88270 87810 3996 10760 41550
2020-09-02 334700 1886000 27840 86490 16470 13410 25820 242700 17230 455300 297100 11140 11040 5472 28980 265500 71320 68700 57440 89550 87930 4073 10800 41710

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-27 to 2020-09-02

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-26 25322 3717156 128380 402365 572243 3310234 160165 365606 573888 607382 202361 968297 615701 262507 5821819 4893 112126 57229 199459 687004 55973 51999 13684 16710 607836 241897 7236 58790 30768 225580 89359 39880 45230 144770 116684 105486 104022 71109 70057 80110 6785 158985 10467 32569 190009 23414 66666 431340 117584 54830 25571 135279 114093 11571 141097 610648 40107 115448 71904 72260 9544 3680
2020-08-27 25370 3759000 128500 403800 582300 3407000 163200 367100 579100 619000 206000 970900 618100 263500 5839000 4949 112400 57690 199900 690600 56200 52010 13720 16750 610100 244000 7427 59790 31020 227100 90800 40560 46060 145200 116800 105800 104300 71680 70900 80640 6877 159600 10710 32700 190300 23550 67080 431900 118400 55390 25800 135900 114600 11680 142300 615300 40330 116200 72270 72800 9650 3711
2020-08-28 25440 3791000 128800 405700 593900 3514000 166900 368700 584200 634900 212200 973500 621000 264700 5869000 5014 113000 58280 200400 696400 56430 52030 13770 16810 612800 246600 7649 61010 31320 229200 92600 41550 46970 145700 116900 106300 104600 72330 71850 81320 7046 161300 10980 32900 190600 23700 67690 432400 119300 56000 26040 136600 115300 11820 143700 621000 40650 117000 72670 73570 9750 3751
2020-08-29 25500 3836000 129000 407400 605400 3624000 170600 370100 589700 648700 218200 975900 623400 265900 5897000 5079 113700 58790 201000 700100 56780 52070 13820 16860 615700 249000 7904 62210 31630 231300 94300 42450 47920 146200 117000 106800 105600 72980 72800 82010 7222 162900 11270 33090 190900 23800 68250 433000 120200 56620 26270 137200 116000 11970 145000 624800 40920 117800 73120 74430 9850 3786
2020-08-30 25560 3854000 129300 409200 618000 3732000 174400 371500 593800 665600 224100 978200 625400 267100 5916000 5145 114200 59270 201400 703300 57060 52130 13870 16920 618400 250700 8133 63230 31930 233000 96100 43240 48830 146800 117000 107200 106100 73620 73760 82700 7328 164200 11490 33250 191200 23960 68790 433600 120800 57230 26500 137700 116700 12110 146400 629400 41170 118600 73450 74900 9940 3823
2020-08-31 25630 3873000 129600 410900 630100 3840000 178000 372900 598100 681900 229900 980400 627300 268300 5941000 5212 114700 59720 201900 709200 57310 52200 13920 16970 621000 252800 8382 64240 32230 234500 98000 44260 49810 147300 117100 107700 106700 74220 74730 83390 7433 165100 11680 33440 191500 24080 69290 434100 121500 57860 26730 138300 117300 12200 147600 634600 41410 119400 73780 75290 10020 3858
2020-09-01 25700 3921000 129900 412300 642700 3951000 181700 374200 603300 697200 238100 982700 628800 269600 5960000 5279 115200 60210 202500 714800 57580 52260 13970 17030 623600 255400 8625 65380 32540 236100 99900 45150 50820 147800 117200 108000 107300 74690 75720 84100 7570 166100 11940 33690 191800 24200 69820 434700 122200 58490 26970 138900 117900 12280 148800 641800 41680 120200 74230 75610 10120 3896
2020-09-02 25760 3973000 130200 413500 655700 4070000 185600 375500 608400 713300 245000 984900 631300 270800 5989000 5348 115700 60820 203100 721400 57840 52330 14000 17080 626400 258100 8903 66490 32850 238100 101700 46130 51850 148400 117300 108400 107900 75240 76720 84800 7737 167000 12210 33920 192100 24340 70300 435300 123200 59130 27200 139600 118600 12380 150300 648400 41950 121000 74570 76500 10230 3937

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-08-27 to 2020-09-04

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESKNOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-26 328846 1801888 26033 83030 15751 12965 22951 239010 16537 419849 275640 9280 8888 5288 28363 262540 68114 63802 56274 81646 87072 3536 10504 40645 25322 3717156 128380 402365 572243 3310234 160165 365606 573888 607382 202361 968297 615701 262507 5821819 4893 112126 57229 199459 687004 55973 51999 13684 16710 607836 241897 7236 58790 30768 225580 89359 39880 45230 144770 116684 105486 104022 71109 70057 80110 6785 158985 10467 32569 190009 23414 66666 431340 117584 54830 25571 135279 114093 11571 141097 610648 40107 115448 71904 72260 9544 3680
2020-08-27 330100 1817000 26440 83620 15820 13000 23270 240400 16740 421400 280500 9510 9110 5292 28420 263900 68820 64870 56440 82600 87370 3601 10570 40850 25650 3750000 128700 404800 587500 3385000 163000 367900 578700 622000 209100 973000 617300 263700 5851000 4953 112400 57680 200200 693000 56410 52010 13790 16830 609900 243800 7383 59330 31030 227300 90730 40460 45920 145300 117300 105800 104700 71690 71180 80590 6889 159900 10650 32760 190600 23540 67410 432100 118300 55370 25820 136200 114600 11820 142300 614900 40290 116100 72380 72830 9670 3715
2020-08-28 331200 1838000 26930 84110 15910 13090 23580 241800 16850 428900 286500 9720 9390 5355 28580 265400 69510 65740 56720 83620 87610 3663 10630 41070 26060 3778000 129100 406600 601000 3454000 165200 370300 583100 632400 214100 978000 619100 265000 5881000 5011 112800 58130 200700 698200 56740 52100 13830 16890 611900 245800 7554 60010 31250 229400 91990 41110 46620 145700 119200 106000 105400 72230 72340 81150 7001 161000 10840 32980 190900 23670 67760 432700 119100 55910 26010 137000 115200 11950 143200 618600 40490 116800 72710 73420 9810 3753
2020-08-29 332400 1858000 27370 84550 16010 13170 23880 243500 16950 435400 291300 9930 9610 5416 28710 266800 70120 66630 56950 84530 87810 3730 10690 41300 26130 3805000 129400 408200 609700 3516000 167600 372700 587100 642500 218700 982000 621000 266400 5911000 5062 113200 58580 201100 703100 57070 52180 13880 16960 613700 247600 7729 60790 31450 231500 93020 41630 47240 145900 120300 106200 106200 72740 73260 81660 7073 162000 11050 33190 191200 23790 68070 433300 119700 56360 26200 137700 115700 12160 144300 622200 40700 117300 73000 73960 9900 3791
2020-08-30 333700 1877000 27610 84950 16090 13260 24090 244900 17130 439200 297800 10140 9900 5436 28830 268200 70760 67580 57230 85440 88020 3786 10740 41510 26360 3824000 129800 409600 620300 3580000 170200 375400 591000 653400 222700 987000 622700 267800 5934000 5108 113600 58970 201400 707500 57320 52280 13910 16960 615500 249000 7926 61660 31660 233600 93880 42290 48020 146200 121500 106500 107000 73230 74350 82170 7156 163000 11250 33370 191500 23900 68390 434100 120400 56780 26380 138400 116200 12310 145300 625800 40900 117800 73350 74400 10000 3828
2020-08-31 334600 1898000 27970 85370 16170 13310 24240 246600 17290 441300 305000 10320 10120 5470 28950 269600 71640 68180 57470 86360 88140 3841 10800 41730 26510 3847000 130200 411100 630900 3631000 172400 378000 595000 662200 226500 991000 624200 269200 5954000 5152 114100 59360 201800 711400 57620 52350 13960 16980 617200 250700 8056 61800 31840 235700 94220 42870 48440 146500 123500 106800 107800 73650 75320 82660 7204 163800 11390 33510 191700 24000 68770 434900 121000 57210 26550 139000 116700 12430 146100 628400 41050 118300 73620 74860 10040 3864
2020-09-01 336400 1916000 28200 85860 16240 13380 24430 248000 17410 444000 310600 10520 10340 5503 29080 271100 72400 68940 57730 87190 88310 3928 10840 41940 26650 3865000 130600 413000 641600 3686000 174600 380800 598400 671600 230000 996000 625600 270500 5974000 5191 114500 59720 202100 715200 57950 52390 14000 16990 619100 251900 8197 62070 32030 237500 94460 43590 49050 146700 125000 107100 108400 74040 76080 83010 7233 164500 11570 33730 192000 24090 69040 435500 121500 57560 26710 139700 117100 12480 147200 631500 41180 118900 73890 75290 10060 3900
2020-09-02 338200 1936000 28350 86210 16300 13470 24600 249700 17490 444900 312500 10680 10530 5520 29200 272200 73010 69670 57990 88000 88440 3985 10870 42080 26820 3889000 131000 414300 650800 3749000 176800 383900 600700 680200 234100 1001000 627100 272000 5992000 5226 114800 60070 202400 718000 58280 52450 14040 17030 620300 253300 8352 62720 32170 239300 95050 44070 49800 146900 126000 107400 109000 74380 76910 83370 7295 165200 11750 33920 192200 24200 69310 435800 122100 57920 26850 140400 117300 12600 147900 633700 41330 119400 74080 75680 10130 3926
2020-09-03 339400 1956000 28490 86680 16360 13590 24770 252400 17690 445600 316600 10850 10750 5541 29330 273300 73350 69850 58190 88610 88540 4061 10900 42320 26910 3910000 131300 415900 659800 3805000 179200 386900 603100 688400 237600 1005000 628500 273800 6013000 5258 115000 60350 202600 720500 58510 52480 14090 17090 621900 254700 8467 63070 32290 240900 95120 44190 50250 147000 127600 107800 109800 74710 77710 83720 7307 165900 11890 34060 192500 24270 69560 436700 122500 58290 26980 140900 117600 12660 148500 636000 41480 119900 74290 76060 10130 3949
2020-09-04 340300 1978000 28590 87160 16420 13720 24780 254900 17790 446300 320400 11050 10920 5548 29510 274500 73940 70580 58610 89190 88600 4114 10930 42420 26930 3920000 131700 416300 668500 3859000 180800 389500 605300 696400 240200 1009000 630200 276000 6035000 5288 115300 60650 202900 722800 58810 52560 14140 17090 622700 255900 8587 63290 32380 242800 95270 44670 50800 147200 128700 108100 110600 75020 78560 84090 7335 166500 12020 34190 192700 24330 69720 437100 122800 58520 27090 141400 118000 12690 149100 638700 41610 120300 74490 76410 10170 3973

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed