COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-10-22


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-10-22

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-19 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-26 --
Peak daily increment 38527 240
Days since peak 3 210
Last total 810467 4701723 71844 270132 34930 25243 223065 403874 37763 1026281 14255 1007026 28216 29850 52212 54476 465726 262405 214686 109541 196004 108969 17646 35330 17234 97019
Last daily increment 21238 162170 2435 16746 1595 1162 14150 5952 760 20986 184 41575 882 1563 2032 1054 16078 9271 12107 3270 4902 1614 1664 1728 270 5256
Last week 121210 721604 10457 67981 6425 3714 62953 44072 3322 89721 1122 163551 3766 6185 9187 7049 74115 50467 57078 13639 23488 5769 6129 9030 962 22597
Previous peak date04-0703-3103-2604-0807-2203-2804-0103-2704-0703-3004-0404-1204-01 --04-2304-1003-2303-30 --03-3104-0906-19 --04-17 --03-26
Previous peak daily increment 4729 29999 979 1498 249 312 278 5950 342 8092 146 19307 92 97 1042 5675 1081 955 376 1075 54 1209
Low between peaks 251

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-10-22

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-0208-04 --06-0608-1309-1509-24 --10-0508-0208-10 --07-1604-14 -- --09-16 --07-0407-20 --07-2407-2410-0207-1707-3008-2708-2709-09 -- -- --10-0707-1910-0407-2805-22 --10-1810-1707-24 -- -- --10-1010-0210-08 --07-1904-01 -- --10-1707-2607-16 -- --09-2110-1908-0710-1310-19 -- --
Peak daily increment 483 45353 7362 11286 92124 4232 22037 8364 4291 12483 4816 11557 3552 9258 225 71 420 11222 3329 243 1648 975 1519 2160 570 887 48 1660 1848 1273 1438 100 880 1108 9495 345 901 1837 16022 1064 1435 1230 5641
Days since peak 81 79 138 70 37 28 17 81 73 98 191 36 110 94 90 90 20 97 84 56 56 43 15 95 18 86 153 4 5 90 12 20 14 95 204 5 88 98 31 3 76 9 3
Last total 27476 5323630 211617 497131 990373 7761312 377541 550757 874171 879876 363888 1453923 710515 355528 8407702 11832 177064 100738 234906 893364 90199 65236 16537 23437 766230 329345 14284 111719 56597 360104 155246 74068 92299 177926 143406 137979 6063 163264 127887 151306 113081 25640 252992 35052 60867 9979 223957 37791 92853 490134 190430 112476 40443 193401 167485 36017 230257 871453 81320 169566 100168 186100 21057 10119
Last daily increment 18 24858 2581 1494 8673 54366 4432 5471 6612 5758 1645 15704 2156 2102 71671 233 1390 1141 994 6425 1373 518 39 153 5609 1642 99 1478 951 4939 2850 583 1303 768 985 743 39 2157 1491 1900 958 928 2403 887 969 79 1138 653 789 1628 2425 1629 0 2068 1128 973 1912 2472 1207 1306 654 3413 322 271
Last week 98 123330 14689 8941 45019 328632 24080 28370 32510 20136 12138 92606 10312 11573 358837 1307 6690 5181 5420 22111 6992 2531 282 804 19741 8096 471 5988 4897 23972 11751 4518 6793 3530 4559 3650 200 10437 8709 9646 3826 4045 11369 4535 4549 471 6533 3532 4168 9027 12439 7185 1508 9236 5232 4212 13638 27966 5997 5856 3621 19914 1471 1454
Previous peak date03-28 --05-03 -- -- -- --04-01 -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- --07-16 -- -- --07-2404-2005-0104-26 -- -- -- -- --05-0805-0104-30 --04-0204-1705-06 --04-06 -- -- -- -- --05-2105-0105-0104-0807-21 -- --04-19 -- --04-09 --05-09 --07-16 --05-2608-01 -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 360 1991 2956 11221 1805 585 1012 190 197 2639 689 303 1518 2171 1017 1782 76 441 89 4272 292 1040 1624 159 9846 1076 1071
Low between peaks 7 688 72 31 50 192 -15 361 142 18 83 423 3737 479 366

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-23 to 2020-10-29

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-10-22 810467 4701723 71844 270132 34930 25243 223065 403874 37763 1026281 14255 1007026 28216 29850 52212 54476 465726 262405 214686 109541 196004 108969 17646 35330 17234 97019
2020-10-23 815500 4792000 73670 287000 37020 25810 240100 413300 38370 1038000 14360 1007000 28690 31520 53690 55420 476700 273900 226500 112400 200400 109000 19070 36890 17390 101000
2020-10-24 831500 4908000 75780 303800 38180 26380 250100 416900 38970 1053000 14470 1009000 29230 33090 55120 56640 488200 283400 239800 115100 204600 109000 20740 38480 17540 102200
2020-10-25 848600 5031000 77600 321600 38840 27200 254400 419200 39570 1069000 14580 1011000 29770 34710 56570 57760 498700 292500 250700 117800 208900 109000 22200 40140 17680 105700
2020-10-26 864900 5153000 78670 339800 40190 27710 262800 424800 40170 1084000 14690 1056000 30220 36270 58000 58870 507000 301100 261100 120600 213200 109000 23060 41840 17820 115100
2020-10-27 883000 5279000 80140 359100 41650 28310 277100 428800 40770 1100000 14800 1082000 30750 37870 59460 59990 515000 309700 272800 123400 217600 110800 24560 43610 17950 119800
2020-10-28 906100 5407000 81860 379500 43220 29180 293500 435400 41390 1116000 14920 1107000 31510 39510 60950 61160 524100 318600 285400 126300 222100 111500 26920 45460 18090 128000
2020-10-29 926100 5538000 83580 401100 44560 30220 310700 436800 42010 1132000 15030 1138000 32180 41200 62470 62290 534600 327500 301300 129200 226700 112700 29180 47390 18230 131700

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-23 to 2020-10-29

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-10-22 5323630 211617 497131 990373 7761312 377541 550757 874171 879876 363888 1453923 710515 355528 8407702 11832 177064 100738 234906 893364 90199 65236 16537 23437 766230 329345 14284 111719 56597 360104 155246 74068 92299 177926 143406 137979 6063 163264 127887 151306 113081 25640 252992 35052 60867 9979 223957 37791 92853 490134 190430 112476 40443 193401 167485 36017 230257 871453 81320 169566 100168 186100 21057 10119
2020-10-23 5354000 213900 499100 998000 7825000 381900 555600 875600 882300 366100 1467000 711700 357400 8471000 12070 178100 101600 235400 898500 91600 65430 16590 23560 768900 330700 14400 112900 57300 364700 157700 74700 93120 178300 143600 138600 6093 165500 129200 152900 113800 26570 254800 35990 61860 10050 225100 38220 93450 491500 192500 113700 41030 194800 168300 36910 232100 875900 82150 170500 100900 189300 21330 10230
2020-10-24 5380000 216100 500900 1005000 7879000 385900 560200 879400 884700 368300 1478000 713700 359300 8533000 12290 179100 102500 236300 902600 93000 65480 16640 23680 771400 332300 14480 113800 57960 369200 160000 75130 94360 178300 144200 139100 6121 167400 130500 154500 114600 27460 257100 36830 62760 10120 226300 38710 94020 492900 194600 114900 41380 196100 169100 37720 233900 880500 83180 171500 101500 191900 21550 10380
2020-10-25 5382000 218400 502700 1012000 7929000 389800 564900 882100 887300 370400 1487000 715300 361100 8593000 12520 180000 103300 236900 906400 94400 65520 16690 23800 774100 333400 14550 114500 58620 373600 162300 75400 95170 179300 144900 139700 6150 167400 131800 156000 114700 28230 258900 37590 63660 10190 227400 39030 94570 494200 196200 115600 41590 197400 169900 38340 235600 884900 84100 172400 102000 194200 21800 10590
2020-10-26 5400000 220600 504200 1019000 7973000 392900 569500 884800 889900 372600 1496000 716500 362800 8653000 12750 181000 104100 237600 911000 95800 66650 16750 23910 776700 334100 14590 115100 59250 378000 164600 76540 95700 179500 145600 140200 6179 169200 133000 157500 115200 28850 260200 38270 64530 10260 228400 39380 95120 495600 197900 116400 41800 198700 170700 38690 237400 887300 84970 173300 102400 196000 21970 10820
2020-10-27 5422000 222800 505700 1025000 8028000 396400 574100 888100 892400 374700 1504000 717500 364600 8713000 12980 181900 104900 238500 915900 97200 66930 16800 24030 779300 335400 14660 116100 59880 382500 166900 77070 96800 180100 146300 140800 6207 170400 134300 159100 115900 29700 261600 39220 65400 10330 229500 39830 95670 496900 199800 117700 42100 199900 171600 39120 239100 892200 85730 174300 102800 198500 22230 11040
2020-10-28 5445000 225000 506800 1032000 8081000 400300 578800 892600 895000 376900 1511000 719400 366400 8773000 13210 182900 105700 239400 920500 98600 67310 16850 24150 781900 336800 14730 117200 60520 386900 169200 78190 98200 180700 146800 141300 6236 171600 135500 160600 116700 30570 263400 39800 66280 10410 230600 40490 96210 498200 202000 118900 42390 201200 172400 39760 240800 898500 86730 175200 103400 201000 22460 11320
2020-10-29 5470000 227200 508100 1039000 8133000 404600 583500 899600 897500 379000 1518000 721300 368200 8833000 13440 183800 106400 240300 924900 100000 67660 16900 24260 784500 338300 14820 118600 61160 391500 171600 78720 99360 181400 147600 141900 6264 173000 136800 162100 117600 31480 265600 40740 67150 10480 231700 41180 96760 499500 204400 120400 42520 202500 173200 40680 242600 901400 87880 176100 104100 203500 22810 11590

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-23 to 2020-10-29

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-10-22 810467 4701723 71844 270132 34930 25243 223065 403874 37763 1026281 14255 1007026 28216 29850 52212 54476 465726 262405 214686 109541 196004 108969 17646 35330 17234 97019
2020-10-23 829400 4842000 73640 284600 36530 26060 240700 411600 38390 1042000 14440 1032000 28970 31130 53830 55610 477500 271700 225800 112100 200600 110000 19090 37280 17420 101400
2020-10-24 847400 4916000 75480 298400 37410 26480 252600 416400 38850 1052000 14610 1042000 29490 32090 55410 56840 487000 280800 237000 114400 204800 110200 20320 39410 17540 104000
2020-10-25 865200 4981000 77140 312200 37910 27160 258600 420500 39320 1062000 14770 1052000 29970 33080 56820 58070 495800 290000 248000 116700 208700 110300 21490 41520 17660 106900
2020-10-26 883100 5109000 78550 325400 38940 27590 268800 425400 39780 1075000 14930 1093000 30440 34090 58220 59300 502900 299300 258600 119100 211900 110400 22460 43590 17790 112000
2020-10-27 902400 5190000 80080 340500 40220 28000 283700 429800 40250 1085000 15080 1120000 31010 35120 59430 60440 509500 308800 270100 121500 216100 111700 23630 45800 17920 115500
2020-10-28 922900 5279000 81800 356400 41340 28590 303000 433900 40730 1095000 15230 1141000 31600 36190 60590 61760 517900 318500 283000 123900 221000 112100 25200 48200 18050 119700
2020-10-29 941800 5365000 83740 373500 42340 29240 323000 437200 41210 1106000 15390 1168000 32190 37300 61940 63080 526900 329000 297100 126400 225800 112600 26750 50960 18190 123700

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-23 to 2020-10-29

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-10-22 5323630 211617 497131 990373 7761312 377541 550757 874171 879876 363888 1453923 710515 355528 8407702 11832 177064 100738 234906 893364 90199 65236 16537 23437 766230 329345 14284 111719 56597 360104 155246 74068 92299 177926 143406 137979 6063 163264 127887 151306 113081 25640 252992 35052 60867 9979 223957 37791 92853 490134 190430 112476 40443 193401 167485 36017 230257 871453 81320 169566 100168 186100 21057 10119
2020-10-23 5346000 214000 498600 998000 7813000 381700 555600 880100 883100 365700 1467000 712400 357400 8475000 12070 178300 101700 235700 896800 91620 65770 16580 23550 769700 331000 14370 113100 57560 364800 157500 75030 93600 178600 144100 138600 6093 165400 129400 153100 114000 26420 255400 35980 61830 10060 225000 38450 93620 491700 192600 113900 40740 195000 168500 36810 232100 876100 82450 170600 100800 190500 21470 10420
2020-10-24 5372000 216100 500200 1005000 7866000 385700 559500 885300 885500 367800 1477000 714100 359200 8533000 12290 179300 102500 236600 898300 92800 66040 16630 23660 772300 332400 14450 114000 58260 368500 159600 75580 94800 178700 144500 139200 6117 167300 130800 154900 114700 27180 257600 36790 62560 10130 225900 38990 94350 493000 194400 115000 41070 196300 169400 37590 234100 880000 83460 171500 101400 192800 21720 10600
2020-10-25 5373000 218200 501700 1012000 7915000 389600 563300 889400 887900 369800 1486000 715700 360900 8583000 12510 180300 103200 237300 899600 93840 66300 16660 23770 775000 333500 14520 114900 58940 372400 161500 76050 95800 179600 144900 139700 6140 167500 132100 156600 115100 27850 259400 37560 63310 10200 226700 39430 94900 494300 195800 116000 41340 197600 170200 38300 236000 883600 84430 172300 101600 195000 21980 10820
2020-10-26 5390000 220400 503000 1019000 7957000 392800 567200 893700 890100 371900 1495000 717000 362600 8635000 12740 181100 104000 237900 901400 94900 66960 16690 23880 777500 334400 14570 115700 59640 375700 163400 76990 96600 179700 145400 140100 6162 169500 133500 158300 115700 28440 260700 38300 64060 10280 227600 39880 95450 495600 197200 117000 41620 198900 170900 38880 238000 886000 85390 173200 101900 199400 22190 11080
2020-10-27 5412000 222500 504300 1026000 8009000 396400 571300 898100 892400 373900 1503000 718300 364300 8689000 12960 182000 104800 238800 903300 95870 67350 16730 23990 780000 335600 14640 116700 60280 379100 165300 77560 97800 180200 145800 140500 6184 170600 134900 159800 116300 29140 262300 39110 64770 10350 228500 40380 95960 497000 198700 118200 41930 200200 171700 39450 239900 890100 86270 174000 102200 202600 22460 11280
2020-10-28 5435000 224600 505500 1033000 8063000 400600 575600 902600 894700 376000 1511000 719900 366000 8745000 13180 182900 105500 239500 905100 96930 67690 16760 24100 782700 336900 14730 117800 60930 382400 167300 78360 99000 180700 146100 140900 6207 172100 136200 161600 117000 29960 264000 39830 65610 10430 229300 40930 96450 498300 200400 119400 42250 201500 172500 40180 241800 894400 87250 174900 102600 205600 22690 11520
2020-10-29 5461000 226700 506600 1041000 8115000 405000 579900 908300 897000 378000 1519000 721500 367800 8804000 13400 183900 106300 240400 906700 98130 68010 16800 24210 785400 338300 14810 118900 61660 386200 169300 78960 100100 181200 146400 141400 6228 173900 137600 163300 117800 30850 266500 40680 66390 10500 230200 41500 97040 499700 202000 120700 42570 202900 173400 41030 243800 897500 88320 175700 103000 209600 22970 11760

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed