COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-10-29


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-10-29

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd) -- -- -- -- -- --10-26 -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- --10-23 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-24 -- --
Peak daily increment 14349 210 1148 2192
Days since peak 3 9 6 5
Last total 965340 5939387 93949 392258 48150 34115 310068 498354 44034 1160083 15566 1288478 35510 43775 68127 60297 616595 330255 319205 132616 229040 121167 30705 51728 19564 145044
Last daily increment 23065 213477 4453 23921 2689 1728 13055 11382 860 23580 188 47616 1211 2776 2194 863 26829 10264 20156 4224 6481 3254 2490 2785 495 9386
Last week 134342 1052030 19534 104558 11631 7860 71745 72244 5412 113951 1092 239636 6453 12058 13849 5036 131726 57854 90887 20176 28008 10573 11398 13817 2032 41391
Previous peak date04-0603-3103-2604-0807-2203-2804-0303-2704-0703-3004-0404-1204-01 --04-2304-1003-2303-30 --03-3104-0906-17 -- --04-0203-26
Previous peak daily increment 5032 30005 979 1498 249 312 283 5663 342 8092 146 17717 92 97 1117 5675 1081 955 376 1174 236 1209
Low between peaks 47 5 9

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-10-29

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-0208-04 --06-0608-1309-1509-24 --10-0508-0208-10 --07-1604-14 -- --09-16 --07-0407-20 --07-2407-2410-0207-1707-3008-27 -- -- -- -- -- --07-1904-1707-28 -- -- --10-2607-24 -- -- -- -- --10-08 --07-1904-01 --10-2410-23 --07-16 -- --09-21 --08-0703-3110-1310-19 -- --
Peak daily increment 483 45353 7362 11286 92124 4233 24094 8364 4291 12483 4816 11557 3552 9257 225 71 398 11222 3329 243 2160 2172 887 1950 1273 879 1108 9495 1282 641 1837 16429 1417 39 1270 5237
Days since peak 88 86 145 77 44 35 24 88 80 105 198 43 117 101 97 97 27 104 91 63 102 195 93 3 97 21 102 211 5 6 105 38 83 212 16 10
Last total 27579 5494376 231383 507050 1048055 8088851 404048 596941 912811 894928 376935 1570446 721770 370832 8944934 15462 189149 107627 242480 923648 101991 70291 17074 24462 792797 340119 14841 122944 62746 395388 172730 80136 103305 181518 151194 143387 6466 182620 142073 163124 118587 30853 269020 41130 67655 10750 234023 43192 98552 503176 208937 120190 43793 208087 174591 43000 250372 918721 89891 178183 2133 105138 214995 23466 12507
Last daily increment 14 26106 3017 1520 6119 48648 3565 8293 5948 2431 1755 17418 2056 2319 88521 371 1443 1082 1315 4372 1806 1314 101 161 4206 1715 71 2318 961 6378 3618 888 1811 392 1247 962 80 3949 2824 388 970 887 2884 1223 1585 127 1563 1073 1073 2499 3590 1047 565 2235 1100 1000 2436 6886 1363 1429 21 800 4869 399 361
Last week 84 140720 16864 8144 49113 274169 22138 40050 32036 15052 11136 99446 9358 13139 451846 2332 8233 5634 6599 24849 10442 4376 465 866 22870 8587 429 9576 5076 31422 15017 4955 9557 2897 6815 4696 372 17440 12421 9920 4711 4350 14020 5191 5576 652 9025 4625 4887 11405 15989 6346 2445 12432 6042 5798 15602 40154 7077 6899 125 4167 24517 2073 1962
Previous peak date03-28 --04-22 -- -- -- --04-01 -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- --07-16 -- -- --07-2404-2005-0104-26 -- -- --08-2707-1605-0805-0104-30 --04-02 --05-0605-2204-0605-22 -- -- -- --05-2105-0105-0104-0807-21 -- --04-19 -- --04-09 --05-09 --07-16 --05-26 --08-01 -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 360 1790 2956 11220 1805 585 1012 190 197 1703 597 2639 689 332 1518 1017 50 1782 698 76 493 99 4272 292 1040 1635 159 9846 1076 1071
Low between peaks 7 688 72 31 50 192 361 83 3737 479 366

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-30 to 2020-11-05

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-10-29 965340 5939387 93949 392258 48150 34115 310068 498354 44034 1160083 15566 1288478 35510 43775 68127 60297 616595 330255 319205 132616 229040 121167 30705 51728 19564 145044
2020-10-30 986000 6127000 97800 411600 51900 34120 318400 498400 44940 1184000 15760 1331000 36530 46090 69700 61230 641100 344200 337800 136500 234300 122100 31980 53620 19940 150700
2020-10-31 1008000 6303000 101500 430700 53580 34600 329800 501700 45840 1207000 15950 1373000 37500 48390 71270 62150 663600 354400 358800 140300 239100 122300 34200 55320 20290 157600
2020-11-01 1028000 6472000 105400 450400 54790 34950 337100 501700 46760 1231000 16140 1418000 38470 50730 72870 63070 684900 365400 377000 144100 243800 122800 35730 57090 20640 165000
2020-11-02 1051000 6632000 109200 470400 57140 35520 346300 506400 47670 1255000 16330 1460000 39400 53140 74480 63990 699500 376500 393500 148000 248200 122800 36870 58750 20980 172100
2020-11-03 1074000 6788000 113200 491400 60180 35930 361500 511100 48610 1279000 16520 1502000 40340 55670 76120 64910 715800 387200 415200 152000 252700 125600 38290 60430 21310 179300
2020-11-04 1101000 6943000 117400 513500 63200 36340 375500 524700 49560 1304000 16710 1544000 41290 58320 77780 65840 732900 396300 440800 156100 257100 127000 41110 62140 21650 186700
2020-11-05 1129000 7097000 121700 536500 65210 38630 389000 536700 50540 1329000 16910 1585000 42250 61110 79480 66780 755800 405400 465700 160300 261500 128800 44660 63860 21990 194200

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-30 to 2020-11-05

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-10-29 5494376 231383 507050 1048055 8088851 404048 596941 912811 894928 376935 1570446 721770 370832 8944934 15462 189149 107627 242480 923648 101991 70291 17074 24462 792797 340119 14841 122944 62746 395388 172730 80136 103305 181518 151194 143387 6466 182620 142073 163124 118587 30853 269020 41130 67655 10750 234023 43192 98552 503176 208937 120190 43793 208087 174591 43000 250372 918721 89891 178183 105138 214995 23466 12507
2020-10-30 5514000 233600 508900 1055000 8143000 409100 603600 916100 898200 377800 1588000 723600 373000 9022000 15740 190000 108500 242700 924100 104100 70290 17130 24580 796000 341700 14970 124500 63740 400900 175500 81010 104700 182300 151800 144100 6521 184200 143900 165300 119200 31780 270300 42150 68670 10840 235500 44470 99300 504800 211900 121800 43910 210000 175500 43680 252300 924100 90690 178900 105500 218500 23850 12810
2020-10-31 5541000 235700 510400 1063000 8187000 412900 610300 920700 900900 378600 1602000 725500 375000 9096000 16190 190800 109700 243600 926500 106100 70370 17190 24690 799200 343400 15060 126200 64700 406300 178600 81890 106100 182300 152700 144700 6569 187900 146400 167700 120300 32690 273200 43130 69680 10940 237000 45420 99900 506400 214700 123400 44190 212000 176400 44530 254300 929200 91870 180000 106200 221800 24160 13050
2020-11-01 5550000 237600 511900 1070000 8228000 416500 617100 923800 903400 379500 1614000 727000 377100 9170000 16730 191600 110300 244800 927600 108200 70450 17250 24810 802300 344600 15150 127700 65670 411600 181000 82760 107500 183300 153700 145300 6615 189100 148400 169200 120300 33610 275000 44110 70710 11040 238400 46180 100600 507900 217200 124300 44420 214000 177300 45410 256300 934300 93150 181000 106700 225200 24420 13340
2020-11-02 5565000 239300 513200 1077000 8264000 419500 623300 926500 905800 380300 1625000 727800 379100 9242000 17140 192300 110800 245500 929700 110200 72130 17310 24920 805400 345400 15170 128700 66640 416900 183100 83620 108900 183400 154700 145900 6656 192400 150500 170400 120900 34520 276400 45070 71720 11140 239800 46900 101300 509300 219700 124900 44660 215900 178100 45820 258300 939200 94000 181800 107100 228500 24660 13710
2020-11-03 5590000 240700 514200 1085000 8310000 422800 630500 931900 908300 381100 1635000 728800 381200 9315000 17570 193000 111700 246400 932800 112300 72550 17360 25040 808400 346600 15240 130200 67620 422200 185300 84490 110300 184200 155600 146500 6697 195400 152400 171500 121600 35440 278300 46040 72750 11240 241100 47690 101900 510800 222000 126000 44940 217900 179000 46540 260300 944200 94810 182700 107600 231900 25020 14040
2020-11-04 5616000 242100 515000 1092000 8356000 426600 637600 936800 910800 381900 1643000 730600 383200 9389000 17980 193700 112700 247400 935500 114400 73040 17420 25150 811500 348100 15290 132300 68610 427500 187800 85370 111700 184700 156600 147200 6737 198800 154400 173600 122600 36390 280300 47020 73790 11350 242500 48350 102500 512300 224300 126900 45230 219900 179900 47600 262400 949100 95970 183800 108200 235200 25320 14370
2020-11-05 5641000 243400 516400 1099000 8401000 430200 645000 943000 913300 382800 1650000 732500 385200 9463000 18340 194400 113800 248500 939700 116500 73880 17480 25270 814500 349700 15370 134400 69620 433000 191200 86250 113200 185100 157700 147800 6776 202300 156700 174400 123500 37360 282900 48010 74850 11450 243900 49290 103200 513700 226500 128000 45660 221900 180800 48630 264400 954100 97190 185300 108900 238600 25670 14770

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-30 to 2020-11-05

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-10-29 965340 5939387 93949 392258 48150 34115 310068 498354 44034 1160083 15566 1288478 35510 43775 68127 60297 616595 330255 319205 132616 229040 121167 30705 51728 19564 145044
2020-10-30 987000 6150000 97700 414200 50840 35550 325600 510200 44910 1183000 15740 1339000 36790 46210 70450 61170 641300 340700 338400 136500 234600 123400 33170 54240 19900 154400
2020-10-31 1009000 6284000 101100 436100 52310 36650 338900 519600 45770 1198000 15890 1361000 37840 48380 72710 62190 661900 350600 356900 140000 239800 124000 35750 56610 20180 160400
2020-11-01 1031000 6405000 104200 458300 52930 37900 348300 528400 46640 1213000 16030 1381000 38770 50630 75520 63220 681700 361000 374900 143500 244200 124500 38170 59070 20440 166400
2020-11-02 1054000 6611000 107200 481000 55090 39440 360100 537600 47530 1232000 16160 1471000 39660 52980 77890 64260 697100 371700 392700 147100 247600 125000 40490 61150 20710 177700
2020-11-03 1077000 6754000 109900 504800 57850 40490 378200 546900 48430 1248000 16310 1504000 40860 55450 79830 65320 713700 382800 412800 150800 252700 127000 42910 63140 20990 185400
2020-11-04 1104000 6924000 113100 531900 60310 41500 395700 557100 49350 1265000 16440 1554000 41830 58060 81600 66390 731500 393700 435100 154600 258500 128200 46550 65990 21270 194700
2020-11-05 1129000 7087000 116200 561300 62590 43450 414700 567300 50290 1280000 16580 1601000 42770 60800 83910 67490 753000 404900 458400 158500 264300 129400 50410 68550 21550 205100

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-30 to 2020-11-05

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-10-29 5494376 231383 507050 1048055 8088851 404048 596941 912811 894928 376935 1570446 721770 370832 8944934 15462 189149 107627 242480 923648 101991 70291 17074 24462 792797 340119 14841 122944 62746 395388 172730 80136 103305 181518 151194 143387 6466 182620 142073 163124 118587 30853 269020 41130 67655 10750 234023 43192 98552 503176 208937 120190 43793 208087 174591 43000 250372 918721 89891 178183 105138 214995 23466 12507
2020-10-30 5520000 234200 508700 1055000 8133000 408000 603900 918500 896700 378500 1584000 723500 373000 9029000 15800 190900 108700 243500 926400 103700 71120 17150 24590 796700 342000 14930 124900 63660 400800 175500 81240 104900 182100 152100 144200 6527 185200 144400 164800 119500 31700 271300 42150 68790 10870 235500 44060 99400 505100 211800 121300 44200 210400 175600 44060 253100 926200 91200 179300 105800 219500 23920 12950
2020-10-31 5546000 235500 510200 1063000 8173000 411700 609600 923700 899200 380100 1595000 725200 375000 9104000 16140 192100 109700 244500 928200 105300 71450 17210 24720 800000 343500 15010 126200 64530 406100 178100 81940 106300 182200 152800 144800 6564 188200 146400 166900 120400 32430 274200 43120 69700 10970 236800 44820 100300 506600 214200 122700 44540 212300 176500 44970 255500 932700 92320 180200 106400 222800 24250 13220
2020-11-01 5554000 237800 511600 1070000 8211000 415400 615200 927900 901700 381600 1605000 726700 377000 9165000 16490 193100 110300 245500 929400 106900 71780 17250 24840 803300 344700 15100 127400 65410 410800 180600 82620 107700 183000 153500 145400 6601 188700 148100 168600 120700 33150 275900 44030 70620 11050 238000 45500 101000 508100 216300 123700 44870 214000 177400 45870 258100 936200 93490 181100 106800 226100 24520 13480
2020-11-02 5569000 240300 513000 1078000 8244000 418400 620800 932000 903700 383100 1614000 727900 379000 9228000 16830 194000 111000 246300 930900 108600 72930 17280 24960 806500 345600 15140 128300 66300 415500 182900 83620 108900 183200 154300 145900 6635 191500 149900 170100 121400 33780 277400 44770 71540 11130 239200 46170 101600 509600 218300 124600 45190 216000 178300 46590 260500 940200 94500 182000 107100 229100 24820 13870
2020-11-03 5594000 242500 514000 1086000 8284000 421900 626500 937600 905800 384600 1624000 729100 381100 9295000 17180 195100 111800 247200 933000 110100 73420 17330 25090 809800 346800 15210 129400 67210 420000 185400 84470 110200 183700 154900 146400 6666 193700 151600 171600 122200 34550 279200 45730 72470 11230 240500 46800 102300 511100 220200 125700 45530 218000 179200 47390 262600 944300 95440 182900 107500 233300 25200 14210
2020-11-04 5618000 244400 515000 1093000 8330000 425900 632300 942600 908000 386100 1632000 730800 383100 9362000 17530 196100 112600 248000 934900 111600 73850 17360 25210 812800 348200 15280 130700 68130 424600 188000 85520 111700 184200 155500 146700 6693 196200 153300 173500 122900 35390 281000 46630 73420 11320 241800 47580 102900 512600 222300 126800 45890 219800 180100 48320 264500 949600 96510 183800 107900 237400 25520 14540
2020-11-05 5640000 246400 516300 1101000 8370000 430000 638200 948200 910500 387600 1640000 732500 385100 9432000 17880 197100 113600 248900 937200 113200 74350 17400 25340 816300 349700 15360 132100 69060 429900 190800 86380 113100 184800 156200 147300 6724 198400 155000 175200 123800 36390 283400 47660 74380 11410 243000 48380 103600 514100 224500 128100 46230 221800 181000 49300 266700 952100 97640 184700 108400 241000 25870 14910

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed