COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-11-10


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-11-10

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)10-29 -- --10-28 -- --10-3011-0411-07 -- -- -- -- -- --10-18 --10-29 --11-06 -- --11-04 -- -- --
Peak daily increment 23201 15489 12505 24102 1179 1059 9355 6070 1911
Days since peak 12 13 11 6 3 23 12 4 6
Last total 1233775 8358929 164866 507475 83366 56927 429880 715693 56958 1381218 18107 1810653 60570 70243 118918 65889 995463 419412 593592 187237 314295 162240 46717 77123 25887 235202
Last daily increment 20412 160063 6120 4293 4390 1695 12699 26547 1066 0 220 0 2383 1467 4140 230 35090 4667 25454 3817 7304 15779 1092 1051 562 5980
Last week 134716 1212485 39767 39262 18775 13158 51164 107082 6428 96810 1177 262822 13678 13676 27930 2406 205086 35889 154056 30297 47207 24510 7309 10351 3309 42826
Previous peak date04-0703-2903-2604-1507-2203-2704-0303-2704-0403-2604-0704-1204-01 --04-1004-1003-2303-31 --04-1004-0806-17 --04-1703-2603-24
Previous peak daily increment 4730 29105 979 1470 249 280 283 5663 316 8025 137 19307 92 105 1117 5673 1079 830 351 1174 48 268 1116
Low between peaks 424 79 47 318 19 9 60 179

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-11-10

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-0208-04 --06-0608-1309-1510-10 --10-0508-0208-10 --07-1604-14 -- --09-16 --10-3107-20 -- --07-2410-0207-1711-0308-27 -- --11-06 -- -- --07-1910-04 -- -- -- -- --07-24 -- -- -- -- --10-08 -- --10-10 -- -- -- --07-1611-07 --09-21 -- --03-31 --10-19 -- --
Peak daily increment 483 45354 7362 11286 92136 4255 23280 8364 4291 12483 4816 11557 1295 9258 71 417 11222 28250 245 14396 2160 570 1273 879 1436 1837 1327 16429 39 11601
Days since peak 100 98 157 89 56 31 36 100 92 117 210 55 10 113 109 39 116 7 75 4 114 37 109 33 31 117 3 50 224 22
Last total 27671 5699005 276479 523907 1155356 8636011 444348 703288 978531 923527 399749 1802762 740254 399360 10252129 20748 206567 122388 263133 989432 138404 82696 18173 27019 850147 393088 16193 163545 75427 511100 219338 105604 124646 189377 169217 156709 8053 236469 189443 203156 128138 41151 297442 56352 87032 12839 259832 55430 112304 532180 261482 140095 51909 244046 187738 57334 281786 1010364 110820 194912 2453 119595 293812 29316 19242
Last daily increment 2 23973 4445 1028 6292 44281 3779 10339 10706 1194 1300 20765 1729 2529 136325 530 1710 1509 3434 8135 3890 1541 86 204 4347 4251 69 3920 1201 12626 4829 477 2079 1337 2016 1338 167 6948 4938 4238 933 1098 2585 894 2177 219 3775 1252 1322 0 6508 1727 754 4322 1347 1023 2246 12337 1927 1435 47 1413 7432 511 1232
Last week 41 108980 25781 8865 47270 271925 22617 57124 34901 11740 11612 122183 9706 14851 745125 2961 8790 8180 12501 38512 20790 7562 572 1577 30888 12754 602 26431 7113 73610 27574 11675 11637 4540 10925 7943 982 32115 28751 22795 5863 5196 14640 8051 11767 1310 15144 7037 8211 16365 31273 12342 4860 21163 6868 7543 18911 50553 12514 9076 195 8599 36525 3328 4198
Previous peak date03-28 --05-03 -- -- -- --04-01 -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- --07-16 --07-04 --07-2404-1705-0104-26 --07-30 --08-2709-0909-0405-0104-30 --04-0204-1705-1905-2204-0605-2204-04 -- -- --05-2105-0105-0104-0807-2107-2304-0104-19 --04-0504-09 --05-09 --07-16 --05-26 --08-01 -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 360 1992 2957 11216 1805 3552 584 993 190 197 3329 1703 1025 3969 689 303 1518 2172 1099 50 1782 698 295 65 493 99 4272 292 1123 9495 1040 88 1634 148 9846 1076 1071
Low between peaks 7 688 483 31 50 1238 1757 192 -15 83 620 56 3737

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-11 to 2020-11-17

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-11-10 1233775 8358929 164866 507475 83366 56927 429880 715693 56958 1381218 18107 1810653 60570 70243 118918 65889 995463 419412 593592 187237 314295 162240 46717 77123 25887 235202
2020-11-11 1257000 8590000 173700 541300 90500 57740 450200 731700 58010 1408000 18320 1851000 63290 73000 122500 66160 1064000 422700 617400 195000 324900 167900 49070 80910 26580 241300
2020-11-12 1280000 8814000 182700 553300 94800 59760 462900 746800 59060 1430000 18490 1909000 65980 75930 126800 66440 1100000 426000 647100 199500 334300 174400 50680 83100 27290 251700
2020-11-13 1302000 9043000 192400 563400 98800 62150 474700 762200 60100 1452000 18640 1962000 68710 78930 131500 66710 1137000 429400 676500 204800 344000 181000 52180 85650 28010 261900
2020-11-14 1325000 9184000 202400 571500 101500 64050 483100 777000 61130 1452000 18770 1970000 71450 82080 136400 66990 1178000 432800 707600 210800 353600 183400 53800 88190 28750 261900
2020-11-15 1345000 9402000 213000 579400 102300 65940 487400 791900 62180 1452000 18890 2056000 74240 85360 140800 67270 1209000 436200 730100 216200 361900 185700 55140 90140 29500 261900
2020-11-16 1365000 9581000 224100 582800 105600 68630 491700 806900 63230 1504000 19010 2093000 77100 88780 145800 67540 1226000 439600 750600 220300 366800 187200 55740 91160 30280 281000
2020-11-17 1385000 9753000 235800 589700 110000 70310 505200 822000 64290 1509000 19130 2107000 80030 92340 150300 67820 1256000 443000 786000 225000 374200 199300 56890 92300 31080 286500

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-11 to 2020-11-17

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-11-10 5699005 276479 523907 1155356 8636011 444348 703288 978531 923527 399749 1802762 740254 399360 10252129 20748 206567 122388 263133 989432 138404 82696 18173 27019 850147 393088 16193 163545 75427 511100 219338 105604 124646 189377 169217 156709 8053 236469 189443 203156 128138 41151 297442 56352 87032 12839 259832 55430 112304 532180 261482 140095 51909 244046 187738 57334 281786 1010364 110820 194912 119595 293812 29316 19242
2020-11-11 5726000 280000 524900 1163000 8693000 447800 714100 983000 926700 401500 1819000 741700 401700 10380000 21270 208000 122600 264600 996000 142600 83690 18260 27350 854500 396500 16250 163500 76530 523500 223500 105600 125100 189400 171200 157600 8219 240700 194400 205100 128300 42350 300200 57440 88700 13060 262200 56110 112900 532800 267200 140100 52650 247600 188300 58420 285400 1017000 111800 196200 120900 298700 30010 19570
2020-11-12 5733000 283300 526300 1172000 8741000 451100 723700 990000 929000 403200 1835000 743500 403900 10519000 21660 209500 124000 267300 1005000 146700 84870 18340 27650 858700 399500 16340 167500 77630 535600 229200 109700 127200 190000 173000 158900 8372 247400 199800 208400 129700 43520 302900 58830 91200 13270 264700 57090 114200 533500 272600 142000 53390 251300 189200 59510 288700 1024000 114400 197400 122300 303400 30710 20150
2020-11-13 5764000 286600 528000 1180000 8790000 454400 733600 996000 931300 405000 1849000 745200 406100 10658000 22210 210900 125500 269800 1013000 151000 86120 18410 27950 862800 402300 16460 169900 78740 549500 234800 110400 129200 190800 174900 160300 8523 252600 206200 213800 130600 44680 305500 60360 94100 13480 267200 58290 115500 534200 277800 143500 54140 255000 190400 60560 292000 1031000 116800 198700 124000 308200 31470 21270
2020-11-14 5784000 289800 529400 1188000 8836000 457600 743200 1003000 933600 406700 1861000 746800 408300 10791000 22850 212200 126900 272800 1021000 155200 87340 18490 28230 866800 405000 16550 172400 79850 561700 240300 110400 131000 190800 176900 161600 8668 259700 211900 218800 131500 45830 307900 61840 95900 13700 269700 59250 117100 535000 282900 144200 54890 258600 191800 61620 295300 1037000 119100 199900 125500 312800 32090 21530
2020-11-15 5793000 293000 530900 1196000 8880000 460800 752100 1008000 935900 408400 1871000 748000 410500 10913000 23430 213600 127800 275900 1028000 159600 88580 18570 28510 870900 407700 16650 175500 80970 573400 244900 114300 132400 191900 178700 162700 8812 260800 218900 222700 132000 47010 309400 62950 97600 13910 272200 60210 117900 535700 287800 146800 55660 262400 192800 62690 298600 1044000 120800 201100 126400 317500 33010 22320
2020-11-16 5802000 296200 532100 1204000 8917000 464000 761800 1011000 938100 410100 1882000 748900 412700 11038000 23940 215000 128600 277400 1036000 164100 89840 18650 28800 874900 410400 16710 178600 82110 584200 249300 114800 133900 192200 180000 163900 8957 270300 224100 226500 132500 48210 310100 64000 99300 14130 274600 61370 118500 536400 292700 148400 56430 266100 193500 63760 301900 1050000 122800 202300 127700 322200 33580 23120
2020-11-17 5822000 299500 533000 1212000 8958000 467300 772300 1019000 940400 411800 1891000 750400 414900 11162000 24500 216400 129800 279700 1042000 168700 91120 18720 29080 879000 413200 16780 183800 83270 595900 253900 116100 135700 193400 181800 165100 9103 277500 229000 230000 133300 49430 311700 65010 101500 14350 277100 62430 119500 537200 297600 149600 57220 269900 194700 64840 305300 1057000 124500 203500 128800 327000 34000 24220

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-11 to 2020-11-17

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-11-10 1233775 8358929 164866 507475 83366 56927 429880 715693 56958 1381218 18107 1810653 60570 70243 118918 65889 995463 419412 593592 187237 314295 162240 46717 77123 25887 235202
2020-11-11 1257000 8552000 172200 516900 88200 58950 441800 734500 58000 1399000 18350 1851000 63430 72440 123900 66170 1028000 424200 621600 192500 321500 166000 48100 79170 26490 244000
2020-11-12 1279000 8769000 181000 527400 92500 61370 453900 750200 59170 1420000 18500 1904000 66440 75010 128700 66480 1056000 430900 653900 197700 329700 169800 49770 81610 27160 253400
2020-11-13 1301000 8983000 189400 537800 97100 64110 465300 767100 60400 1441000 18720 1957000 69370 77650 134000 66780 1091000 437700 686600 203200 338300 173700 51430 84200 27800 263000
2020-11-14 1323000 9126000 199200 548100 99900 66400 473500 782500 61580 1449000 18780 1987000 72450 80420 139800 67080 1126000 444500 721400 208900 346900 174300 53150 86830 28440 269100
2020-11-15 1344000 9323000 208600 558400 101300 68670 479600 796500 62700 1457000 19000 2050000 75090 83300 145300 67380 1161000 451900 753900 214600 355000 175700 54910 89410 29120 275300
2020-11-16 1364000 9539000 217400 568400 105500 72230 486600 814300 63890 1495000 19080 2101000 77500 86380 150800 67690 1188000 458800 789300 220200 362700 176600 56450 91810 29870 288400
2020-11-17 1386000 9710000 226900 579000 112100 74580 500800 828100 65170 1512000 19230 2140000 80990 89550 156400 68000 1228000 466300 826900 225900 371100 182700 58230 94420 30620 296900

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-11 to 2020-11-17

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-11-10 5699005 276479 523907 1155356 8636011 444348 703288 978531 923527 399749 1802762 740254 399360 10252129 20748 206567 122388 263133 989432 138404 82696 18173 27019 850147 393088 16193 163545 75427 511100 219338 105604 124646 189377 169217 156709 8053 236469 189443 203156 128138 41151 297442 56352 87032 12839 259832 55430 112304 532180 261482 140095 51909 244046 187738 57334 281786 1010364 110820 194912 119595 293812 29316 19242
2020-11-11 5722000 280500 524700 1162000 8681000 447700 713000 984000 926800 401400 1820000 741900 401800 10370000 21260 208100 123700 264600 995000 142000 83990 18250 27260 854900 395100 16300 167400 76550 522100 223900 106800 126300 189900 170700 157800 8209 242100 194000 206500 129000 41910 299800 57490 88900 13030 262400 56550 113500 534400 266500 141900 52670 247700 188700 58480 285200 1020000 112700 196300 121200 299600 29810 19940
2020-11-12 5728000 283700 526100 1171000 8720000 451100 722100 990000 929200 403000 1832000 743500 404000 10485000 21750 209500 125000 266200 999000 145500 85080 18310 27460 859500 397400 16390 171600 77650 533200 228500 109600 128200 190400 172100 158700 8341 247500 198500 209400 130000 42960 302500 58960 90700 13230 264500 57530 114600 536900 271000 143700 53390 250800 189700 59730 287700 1027000 114600 197600 122200 304700 30360 20420
2020-11-13 5760000 287200 527700 1179000 8759000 454400 731100 995000 930800 404600 1845000 745000 406300 10600000 22270 210900 126400 267600 1002000 149200 86170 18390 27660 864000 399500 16490 175200 78770 544900 233100 110900 130100 191100 173400 159700 8472 251400 203300 212700 130900 44020 305200 60580 92600 13420 266700 58600 115900 539400 275500 145300 54150 254200 190800 61120 290200 1033000 116600 198800 123500 310100 30920 21330
2020-11-14 5780000 290400 529200 1188000 8797000 457900 740000 1001000 932900 406100 1857000 746500 408600 10713000 22820 212400 127600 269400 1005000 153000 87150 18460 27860 868400 401700 16590 178800 79900 555400 237700 111800 132000 191200 174800 160600 8598 257300 207900 216000 131700 45000 307800 62160 94400 13630 268900 59610 117200 541900 280000 146600 54930 257300 192000 62370 293000 1040000 118700 200200 124700 316000 31440 21660
2020-11-15 5790000 293300 530600 1196000 8831000 461200 748800 1006000 935100 407600 1867000 747900 410900 10820000 23360 213700 128500 271000 1007000 156500 88140 18530 28050 873000 404000 16680 182000 81040 565400 242300 114300 133600 192000 176000 161300 8722 258100 212700 219100 132300 45830 309700 63480 96200 13830 271100 60590 118300 544400 284000 148600 55610 260200 193000 63680 295700 1044000 120200 201300 125500 319800 32060 22270
2020-11-16 5801000 296600 531900 1205000 8862000 463900 758000 1010000 936700 409100 1878000 749100 413200 10930000 23910 215000 129300 272300 1010000 160200 89420 18590 28250 876900 406100 16740 185300 82210 575400 246700 115400 135400 192300 177100 162000 8848 265000 217300 222300 132900 46630 311100 64690 98100 14010 273200 61560 119200 547000 287400 150200 56330 263700 193900 64540 298500 1048000 121900 202300 126000 323200 32560 22940
2020-11-17 5818000 300000 532800 1214000 8896000 466900 767700 1016000 938400 410600 1888000 750400 415500 11046000 24480 216100 130200 274000 1012000 163900 90550 18650 28450 881500 409300 16810 188200 83390 586100 251300 116900 137200 193100 178400 162600 8979 269000 221800 225100 133600 47710 313200 66110 100100 14200 275400 62580 120400 549500 291600 151600 57050 267000 195000 65660 300700 1054000 123700 203300 126600 328200 33020 23650

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed