COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-04-15


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-04-15

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-062021-03-292021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-03-312021-03-102021-01-252021-03-152021-03-31 --2021-04-022021-03-242021-01-0811-122021-03-272021-03-262021-01-232021-03-252021-04-0610-292021-01-032021-03-1611-02
Peak daily increment 57043 210471 3160 4823 3648 3823 12262 16236 1362 37889 714 36551 1678 8402 5772 34945 7184 26612 12347 5635 5697 1746 2815 935 8404
Days since peak 97 160 17 25 24 118 44 15 36 80 31 15 13 22 97 154 19 20 82 21 9 168 102 30 164
Last total 4380976 28868704 586883 939309 382761 411211 1593847 3110252 240330 3396685 83253 5149776 308006 300900 736982 242402 3826156 1378145 2642242 829358 1020301 892480 229967 373950 106224 630194
Last daily increment 2671 162067 2678 3993 2185 1988 3723 25110 798 9663 289 37894 3822 2927 5307 297 16963 8734 21126 501 3852 7095 891 843 617 2226
Last week 15515 887470 15267 21392 12582 10337 20694 119528 3984 49173 1992 245811 17042 12536 31167 2210 89630 43374 114236 3031 21746 35079 5268 4557 3505 12651
Previous peak date04-0704-1211-1110-2811-1603-2710-2612-1612-1811-0204-0411-0311-1412-1211-2904-1003-2412-1811-0804-1011-172021-01-05 -- --11-1703-27
Previous peak daily increment 4732 53553 7110 16472 3443 271 12285 23893 3419 21295 147 51954 2609 3554 5428 1117 5636 11039 24661 814 8604 8567 1168 1140
Low between peaks 425 3422 1329 1726 429 -1037 3593 7353 362 6516 5 10020 312 1056 9 193 3435 5006 179 2312 2601 253 15

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-04-15

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-022021-03-16 --2021-03-27 -- --2021-01-28 --2021-01-202021-04-09 --12-222021-01-0612-102021-01-1012-062021-03-152021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-102021-03-112021-01-022021-01-082021-01-0911-1212-0811-0612-0511-162021-01-1011-162021-01-102021-01-092021-01-13 --11-192021-03-112021-01-0811-172021-01-022021-04-052021-04-0212-112021-01-1311-2012-092021-03-2412-082021-03-2411-2712-102021-01-1211-1312-142021-01-1211-142021-01-172021-04-1012-0610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 75545 6766 12373 16981 9049 27990 17701 720121 238998 689 3351 2817 9262 42165 4984 2579 285 494 16406 8865 174 4362 1493 12561 6415 3244 3605 3407 5454 3015 578 6763 57080 2921 1163 8243 153 926 793 5865 2333 2623 20805 17473 678 1537 10174 4802 1362 7648 21849 2491 6323 176 3223 12345 1433 800
Days since peak 256 30 19 77 85 6 114 99 126 95 130 31 99 102 120 148 94 95 35 103 97 96 154 128 160 131 150 95 150 95 96 92 147 35 97 149 103 10 13 125 92 146 127 22 128 22 139 126 93 153 122 93 152 88 5 130 178 104 147
Last total 29484 13746681 1104508 1101698 2602719 14291917 1589359 2168872 2295435 1667737 904285 4622464 1562931 4086957 31495164 65427 521201 330134 851725 3711188 485256 326901 46315 99707 2144943 1048098 31337 357871 184557 1292414 703345 306888 435734 451056 622816 431795 55953 829441 549348 547981 308521 106823 941214 105380 213545 89265 966576 190495 309699 1980165 1048109 443754 172931 1095321 566018 120613 794575 2843929 295742 641626 21652 380209 649178 147596 57203
Last daily increment 15 73174 9609 7431 16918 217353 6177 25078 4189 0 11405 8818 1372 61400 73804 193 421 274 460 2538 1496 701 106 400 6762 1612 95 477 210 3571 1374 2 821 803 1865 1444 580 7164 2729 670 410 192 2430 165 304 492 3958 227 549 7041 2164 0 725 5093 1087 234 1464 3060 338 1415 176 1404 1084 393 76
Last week 88 373507 51948 41277 98513 1085991 31214 139460 23371 39218 63731 50411 6689 341300 410202 939 2967 1061 3523 17573 9326 6440 681 2127 36746 8650 493 2799 1404 19334 7170 1115 3523 2638 10512 8132 2520 44757 12002 3451 1427 849 11809 892 1795 2454 20989 1234 2747 37869 12557 3733 3593 28614 5256 1146 6783 21040 1654 9001 849 6925 5227 2297 330
Previous peak date03-2808-042021-01-0306-062021-01-1609-10 --11-2610-0508-0208-1405-0907-1604-14 -- --2021-01-0504-2207-0407-2004-2404-2005-0112-0607-1711-0308-2708-2709-0909-04 --04-30 --07-1904-1705-0605-2211-27 --11-1407-24 -- --12-0911-2605-0104-0807-2207-192021-01-0804-192021-01-09 --04-0907-1608-2706-0211-01 --05-26 --07-18 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45270 9645 7349 17013 94316 13800 22833 8380 4818 10928 12481 4816 3867 153 3557 9151 729 1011 190 792 11222 21992 245 1641 986 3933 303 2155 2171 1017 48 7920 5848 1273 2132 3072 89 4272 286 1108 15820 1004 3943 1624 1834 465 1079 26263 1076 847 51
Low between peaks 7 19229 1343 4599 1490 4744 1435 -708 650 74 482 3185 179 72 31 234 2309 2470 81 721 283 1766 95 377 -21 361 15 222 463 67 219 19 115 95 298 5654 386 200 422 764 232 468 9248 479 398 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-04-16 to 2021-04-22

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-04-15 4380976 28868704 586883 939309 382761 411211 1593847 3110252 240330 3396685 83253 5149776 308006 300900 736982 242402 3826156 1378145 2642242 829358 1020301 892480 229967 373950 106224 630194
2021-04-16 4385000 29039000 590800 945400 388800 413600 1603000 3120000 241200 3399000 83430 5170000 310500 301800 740500 242800 3837000 1385000 2682000 829800 1031000 897400 231200 375600 107500 631900
2021-04-17 4394000 29166000 594400 950500 391900 415300 1610000 3130000 242000 3399000 83690 5176000 313200 303400 746800 243500 3851000 1392000 2715000 830100 1038000 897400 232500 377000 108000 631900
2021-04-18 4400000 29337000 596900 954300 392800 416600 1614000 3131000 242900 3399000 83780 5270000 314800 304600 751700 244100 3863000 1399000 2739000 830500 1043000 897400 233100 377800 108700 631900
2021-04-19 4405000 29425000 599100 956100 396500 417800 1615000 3139000 243600 3417000 83880 5278000 316300 304600 756800 244600 3872000 1405000 2752000 830700 1047000 897400 233300 378000 109400 634900
2021-04-20 4410000 29566000 601500 959100 399400 419800 1620000 3161000 244400 3423000 83930 5307000 320300 305900 757800 245100 3886000 1411000 2765000 831100 1053000 913900 234200 378900 110200 637200
2021-04-21 4415000 29718000 604100 963200 402800 421800 1624000 3192000 245200 3433000 84050 5341000 323500 308600 759700 245500 3899000 1416000 2784000 831800 1059000 922200 235400 379800 110800 639600
2021-04-22 4419000 29882000 606700 967300 405300 423700 1629000 3215000 245900 3443000 84410 5388000 326900 311200 764600 245900 3914000 1424000 2807000 832300 1062000 928900 236400 380700 111400 641600

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-04-16 to 2021-04-22

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-04-15 13746681 1104508 1101698 2602719 14291917 1589359 2168872 2295435 1667737 904285 4622464 1562931 4086957 31495164 65427 521201 330134 851725 3711188 485256 326901 46315 99707 2144943 1048098 31337 357871 184557 1292414 703345 306888 435734 451056 622816 431795 55953 829441 549348 547981 308521 106823 941214 105380 213545 89265 966576 190495 309699 1980165 1048109 443754 172931 1095321 566018 120613 794575 2843929 295742 641626 21652 380209 649178 147596 57203
2021-04-16 13840000 1114000 1109000 2618000 14427000 1594000 2197000 2299000 1686000 916200 4632000 1564000 4138000 31561000 65700 521500 330300 852300 3714000 486300 328900 46430 100000 2151000 1050000 31550 358500 185000 1296000 705100 307300 436300 451400 625400 433100 56520 833200 551300 548800 308700 107000 942300 105500 213900 89670 972600 190600 309900 1990000 1050000 444400 173400 1098000 567300 120800 795200 2847000 296000 643000 21890 381200 649800 148000 57250
2021-04-17 13912000 1120000 1116000 2633000 14531000 1598000 2220000 2304000 1694000 928700 4640000 1565000 4182000 31610000 65700 522000 330500 852900 3716000 487200 328900 46560 100200 2154000 1051000 31660 359200 185000 1299000 706700 307300 436700 451400 627400 434000 56920 838100 552100 549600 308900 107100 942300 105700 214200 89940 977100 190700 309900 1998000 1051000 444400 173400 1101000 568500 121000 796100 2850000 296300 644300 22060 381800 650400 148400 57300
2021-04-18 13947000 1126000 1123000 2647000 14644000 1602000 2243000 2306000 1702000 939800 4648000 1565000 4228000 31665000 65700 522400 330500 853500 3718000 488100 328900 46670 100500 2158000 1052000 31740 359400 185000 1302000 708100 307300 437200 451400 628700 435100 57290 838100 553300 550300 309000 107200 942300 105700 214400 90260 980700 190700 309900 2004000 1053000 444500 173600 1103000 569200 121000 797000 2851000 296500 645600 22290 382600 650800 148700 57360
2021-04-19 13978000 1132000 1129000 2662000 14729000 1607000 2267000 2307000 1706000 949700 4656000 1566000 4276000 31723000 66030 522600 330700 854100 3721000 488700 331700 46790 100700 2163000 1053000 31810 359700 185600 1305000 709500 307600 437700 452300 630200 436200 57660 846600 554800 551100 309000 107300 947000 105800 214500 90600 983200 191200 309900 2009000 1054000 444800 174000 1107000 570000 121100 798000 2856000 296800 647000 22390 383500 651100 149100 57410
2021-04-20 14059000 1137000 1134000 2676000 14822000 1612000 2292000 2312000 1710000 959000 4664000 1567000 4323000 31782000 66220 523300 330900 854700 3723000 490100 332800 46900 101000 2168000 1055000 31860 360300 185800 1309000 710500 307600 438200 452700 631600 437400 58140 853500 556300 551800 309300 107400 948000 106000 214700 90950 987300 191300 309900 2012000 1056000 445400 174300 1111000 570800 121400 799000 2860000 297000 648300 22480 384400 651900 149500 57470
2021-04-21 14132000 1142000 1139000 2691000 14925000 1617000 2316000 2317000 1718000 967900 4671000 1568000 4372000 31843000 66390 523700 331100 855300 3726000 492200 334100 47010 101300 2173000 1057000 31920 360800 186200 1312000 711900 308200 438800 453100 633400 438600 58570 862200 557900 552600 309600 107600 950000 106200 215100 91320 990500 191500 309900 2018000 1058000 445400 174700 1117000 571500 121600 800000 2863000 297300 649700 22560 385400 652900 149800 57520
2021-04-22 14208000 1146000 1146000 2706000 15058000 1622000 2340000 2321000 1724000 976400 4679000 1569000 4422000 31905000 66590 524100 331300 855900 3728000 493600 334900 47120 101600 2178000 1059000 32020 361400 186400 1315000 713000 308200 439300 453800 635200 439800 58990 869100 559700 553300 309900 107700 952000 106400 215400 91690 994300 191700 310100 2025000 1060000 445500 175200 1121000 572500 121800 801000 2867000 297600 651000 22760 386400 653800 150200 57580

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-04-16 to 2021-04-22

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-04-15 4380976 28868704 586883 939309 382761 411211 1593847 3110252 240330 3396685 83253 5149776 308006 300900 736982 242402 3826156 1378145 2642242 829358 1020301 892480 229967 373950 106224 630194
2021-04-16 4383000 28978000 589500 943200 385200 413300 1598000 3129000 241000 3404000 83510 5166000 310900 303400 743400 242800 3838000 1385000 2665000 829800 1025000 898000 231000 374700 106900 632300
2021-04-17 4385000 29038000 592400 946500 386900 414800 1602000 3136000 241500 3407000 83730 5177000 313800 305300 750300 243300 3848000 1392000 2688000 830200 1029000 898900 232000 375600 107300 632800
2021-04-18 4386000 29126000 594400 949500 387900 415800 1604000 3138000 242100 3411000 83890 5254000 315700 306900 756000 243700 3853000 1399000 2708000 830500 1033000 899900 232700 376200 107800 633200
2021-04-19 4388000 29167000 596200 951600 390500 416900 1604000 3143000 242600 3423000 84030 5267000 317600 307900 760400 244100 3857000 1404000 2720000 830700 1036000 900800 233100 376600 108400 635400
2021-04-20 4389000 29235000 598400 954100 392400 418700 1608000 3154000 243200 3429000 84170 5291000 321400 309400 761800 244500 3865000 1410000 2738000 831000 1040000 910100 233900 377300 109100 636700
2021-04-21 4390000 29309000 601200 957400 396000 420500 1612000 3167000 243800 3436000 84330 5316000 324600 311300 764700 244900 3870000 1415000 2756000 831400 1045000 914400 234800 378200 109700 637900
2021-04-22 4392000 29404000 603600 960600 398500 422400 1617000 3178000 244300 3444000 84570 5371000 328000 313400 769500 245200 3876000 1422000 2780000 831800 1049000 918800 235800 379200 110400 639100

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-04-16 to 2021-04-22

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-04-15 13746681 1104508 1101698 2602719 14291917 1589359 2168872 2295435 1667737 904285 4622464 1562931 4086957 31495164 65427 521201 330134 851725 3711188 485256 326901 46315 99707 2144943 1048098 31337 357871 184557 1292414 703345 306888 435734 451056 622816 431795 55953 829441 549348 547981 308521 106823 941214 105380 213545 89265 966576 190495 309699 1980165 1048109 443754 172931 1095321 566018 120613 794575 2843929 295742 641626 21652 380209 649178 147596 57203
2021-04-16 13826000 1112000 1110000 2618000 14456000 1595000 2193000 2299000 1676000 914900 4629000 1564000 4145000 31559000 65630 521500 330300 852200 3713000 487000 328200 46430 100100 2151000 1050000 31480 358400 184800 1296000 704600 307200 436400 451500 624500 433200 56460 837000 551300 548700 308800 107000 943300 105500 213900 89690 970700 190600 310200 1987000 1050000 444400 173500 1100000 567100 120800 795800 2847000 296000 642900 21810 381200 650100 148000 57270
2021-04-17 13889000 1118000 1117000 2631000 14554000 1599000 2214000 2303000 1684000 925700 4633000 1565000 4197000 31602000 65720 521800 330400 852700 3714000 488100 328800 46520 100400 2156000 1051000 31590 358900 184900 1299000 705700 307300 436800 451600 625800 434200 56770 843900 553000 549400 309000 107100 943400 105700 214300 90060 974600 190700 310600 1994000 1051000 444800 173900 1104000 568100 121000 796600 2848000 296300 644000 21980 381900 650500 148400 57310
2021-04-18 13918000 1124000 1125000 2645000 14662000 1603000 2235000 2305000 1692000 936100 4637000 1566000 4250000 31639000 65800 522000 330400 853200 3715000 489000 329300 46580 100700 2161000 1052000 31680 359100 185100 1301000 706700 307400 437300 451600 626700 435200 57050 846500 554700 550000 309100 107200 943400 105800 214500 90450 978000 190700 310900 2001000 1051000 445200 174300 1107000 568700 121000 797500 2850000 296500 645100 22200 382400 650800 148700 57360
2021-04-19 13946000 1131000 1131000 2659000 14751000 1607000 2256000 2308000 1697000 946000 4641000 1566000 4303000 31689000 66050 522100 330500 853700 3717000 489700 331300 46640 101000 2165000 1053000 31760 359400 185400 1303000 707800 307800 437800 452200 627700 435800 57320 854800 556500 550700 309200 107200 948500 105900 214800 90830 981000 191100 311300 2007000 1052000 445800 174700 1111000 569500 121000 798700 2852000 296700 646100 22320 382900 651100 149000 57410
2021-04-20 14025000 1136000 1136000 2673000 14841000 1612000 2278000 2311000 1701000 955700 4645000 1567000 4355000 31739000 66230 522400 330600 854300 3718000 490900 332400 46720 101200 2170000 1055000 31830 359900 185700 1306000 708600 307900 438300 452400 628600 436300 57670 861300 558200 551300 309500 107300 949600 106100 215100 91220 985000 191200 311600 2012000 1053000 446300 175200 1116000 570300 121200 799700 2855000 297000 647100 22450 383400 651600 149400 57450
2021-04-21 14102000 1142000 1141000 2687000 14934000 1617000 2299000 2315000 1707000 965200 4648000 1568000 4410000 31792000 66400 522600 330700 854900 3719000 492300 333500 46790 101500 2175000 1056000 31910 360300 186000 1309000 709700 308300 438800 452700 629800 437100 57980 869100 560100 552000 309700 107400 951200 106200 215500 91610 988500 191400 311900 2019000 1054000 447000 175600 1120000 571100 121300 800700 2857000 297200 648200 22580 383900 652100 149700 57500
2021-04-22 14180000 1148000 1148000 2701000 15041000 1622000 2321000 2319000 1718000 975600 4652000 1569000 4465000 31846000 66600 522800 330800 855400 3720000 493600 334600 46860 101900 2181000 1058000 32020 360800 186200 1312000 710700 308400 439400 453000 631100 437800 58290 876200 561900 552600 309900 107500 953100 106400 215800 92010 992200 191600 312300 2026000 1055000 447700 176100 1124000 572000 121400 801800 2859000 297500 649200 22800 384400 652700 150100 57550

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed