COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-08-17


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-08-17

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-07-172021-07-272021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-192021-03-102021-07-192021-08-142021-04-112021-08-122021-04-132021-03-222021-01-0811-122021-07-172021-03-262021-07-172021-03-252021-04-1310-292021-01-032021-03-162021-04-19
Peak daily increment 45171 68804 3238 4734 3757 3824 12260 20853 1343 26721 857 41469 3270 2177 8670 5772 34933 9935 27926 3308 5691 6121 1744 2814 921 2163
Days since peak 31 21 145 149 148 242 168 120 160 29 3 128 5 126 148 221 278 31 144 31 145 126 292 226 154 120
Last total 6322241 35282880 670372 1156620 435940 503059 1676518 3837218 332622 4733602 118647 6378738 543749 367409 810549 327684 4449606 1906434 2885676 1006588 1088053 1112958 261804 393610 145761 744106
Last daily increment 26628 59848 866 1741 1405 1044 221 5391 886 14336 665 12723 4412 341 45 1496 5268 2306 215 2118 544 2811 320 74 747 3152
Last week 175441 366798 5337 10884 5530 5136 1068 28380 5735 73129 4366 118544 18878 1693 423 10480 36444 14330 1119 13347 2315 4901 1185 382 3440 12958
Previous peak date2021-01-0811-0611-1110-2811-1603-2710-2912-1612-182021-01-252021-03-1811-022021-04-0812-1211-2904-1003-2412-1811-242021-01-2311-172021-01-05 -- --11-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 57009 209948 7102 16479 3440 275 12260 23909 3421 37837 701 51646 2953 3555 5428 1117 5640 11038 24706 12346 8601 8622 1196 8395
Low between peaks -2834 -206810 1324 1726 429 -1016 3514 7362 362 -30661 67 9751 363 312 1056 9 193 416 5006 344 2309 2588 253 952

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-08-17

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd) --2021-03-242021-04-122021-06-042021-06-262021-05-052021-07-15 --2021-01-202021-04-10 --2021-07-132021-07-022021-04-162021-01-102021-08-022021-07-312021-07-122021-01-0312-162021-07-262021-01-112021-01-102021-05-192021-08-142021-01-082021-08-1311-1212-0811-062021-08-092021-08-052021-08-03 --2021-01-102021-01-092021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-11 --2021-08-032021-08-022021-04-102021-04-022021-08-092021-01-132021-08-0212-092021-03-2412-082021-08-04 --12-10 --11-132021-06-112021-01-122021-08-092021-08-09 -- --2021-08-092021-08-0911-19
Peak daily increment 74830 8650 7273 29826 387101 48126 16926 8699 24491 19354 58966 239115 286 4659 1058 9264 42168 868 2581 285 591 41813 8875 832 4364 1492 12551 2109 1266 1748 5458 3015 454 7868 2115 57408 214 3247 156 914 161 5865 451 2623 20372 17150 2663 10186 1359 3142 21848 630 1611 1283 375 801
Days since peak 146 127 74 52 104 33 209 129 35 46 123 219 15 17 36 226 244 22 218 219 90 3 221 4 278 252 284 8 12 14 219 220 125 127 129 159 14 15 129 137 8 216 15 251 146 252 13 250 277 67 217 8 8 8 8 271
Last total 40774 20416183 1465478 1630330 4874169 32285857 3892479 4517243 3123252 2135827 1765675 6551934 2624254 6118478 37017854 80973 641386 418955 970523 4163667 593476 363075 52843 114680 2917788 1242547 50180 387258 210314 1470372 806094 351366 522200 631384 686030 481569 72896 1003555 628852 677444 392309 120946 1125957 113673 221235 103242 1063224 216411 374651 2213070 1164808 500184 245758 1258774 669638 127322 922952 3384466 335427 725971 26377 515619 709290 174818 69356
Last daily increment 677 37613 1862 398 3247 35178 20741 50228 14814 2015 9829 20349 10685 21692 128902 451 4023 2179 2661 15432 1189 878 66 141 0 7458 453 0 904 3631 2691 10 3222 3684 1242 851 375 0 3031 2036 3323 621 3555 269 0 244 1858 746 1002 3405 3235 0 2915 2085 2286 395 3672 28206 669 2244 356 2339 1963 1339 412
Last week 3025 171098 12478 4863 21846 208151 143033 236026 102656 7311 77635 126016 70014 122284 827675 2632 21634 11873 17726 75364 7000 3734 990 1660 151765 40169 4260 0 3792 19358 15168 5456 16577 29873 6555 5499 1014 7464 7161 13542 20597 1823 31071 929 0 1283 10657 4588 6026 25821 15490 0 11365 12246 21130 864 25819 90597 3916 12776 640 16817 8180 3619 1774
Previous peak date08-0408-042021-01-0706-062021-01-1609-152021-01-282021-04-1410-0508-022021-04-0212-222021-01-0612-10 --12-062021-01-052021-01-0607-0407-2011-1804-2005-0112-062021-01-0211-0308-2708-2709-0909-0412-0511-232021-01-092021-01-1004-1705-062021-01-1311-2711-1911-142021-01-0911-172021-01-0212-0911-2612-1104-0811-2007-192021-01-0804-192021-01-0912-0404-092021-01-1605-0912-1411-0111-142021-01-172021-04-0112-0610-192021-01-03 --
Previous peak daily increment 543 45351 7805 7360 17013 92146 12372 24624 23278 8364 10772 27989 17714 720226 689 3862 2815 3554 9152 4983 1012 190 792 16684 22916 245 1648 975 3970 6415 2770 3603 3358 2172 1017 579 7869 6769 5848 2683 1163 8240 2118 3013 793 4272 2334 1108 15822 994 3935 1604 1625 5175 148 7643 27059 2491 6324 173 3223 12274 1420
Low between peaks 19228 2897 1343 3453 11268 3789 4595 1487 8230 937 6214 26 110 156 483 3186 374 72 31 124 701 2353 38 723 283 1757 240 66 108 -15 361 140 989 760 255 39 225 67 233 11 115 59 298 5685 386 -108 424 56 213 9157 148 126 47 35

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-18 to 2021-08-24

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-08-17 6322241 35282880 670372 1156620 435940 503059 1676518 3837218 332622 4733602 118647 6378738 543749 367409 810549 327684 4449606 1906434 2885676 1006588 1088053 1112958 261804 393610 145761 744106
2021-08-18 6348000 35362000 671300 1158000 436800 503200 1677000 3843000 333500 4771000 119300 6405000 545100 367400 810600 329400 4456000 1910000 2886000 1010000 1088000 1113000 261900 393700 145800 746100
2021-08-19 6371000 35438000 672100 1160000 437600 503500 1677000 3848000 334200 4801000 120000 6430000 547000 367400 810600 331200 4462000 1913000 2886000 1012000 1089000 1114000 262000 393700 146000 747900
2021-08-20 6395000 35509000 673000 1162000 438700 504200 1677000 3853000 335000 4824000 120700 6453000 549200 367400 810700 333000 4469000 1915000 2886000 1015000 1089000 1114000 262200 393700 146500 750200
2021-08-21 6419000 35555000 673900 1162000 439400 504800 1677000 3856000 335800 4824000 121200 6475000 551500 367600 810700 334700 4475000 1918000 2886000 1017000 1090000 1114000 262400 393800 146800 751400
2021-08-22 6443000 35594000 674700 1162000 439800 505500 1677000 3859000 336600 4824000 121800 6493000 552600 367700 810700 336400 4481000 1921000 2886000 1019000 1090000 1114000 262500 393900 147000 752700
2021-08-23 6468000 35646000 675500 1166000 441000 506100 1677000 3862000 337400 4849000 122200 6495000 554100 367700 810900 338000 4485000 1923000 2886000 1020000 1090000 1114000 262600 393900 147500 755500
2021-08-24 6493000 35704000 676300 1168000 442000 506800 1678000 3866000 338300 4863000 122800 6510000 558200 367900 810900 339700 4489000 1925000 2887000 1022000 1091000 1117000 262800 393900 148100 757600

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-18 to 2021-08-24

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-08-17 40774 20416183 1465478 1630330 4874169 32285857 3892479 4517243 3123252 2135827 1765675 6551934 2624254 6118478 37017854 80973 641386 418955 970523 4163667 593476 363075 52843 114680 2917788 1242547 50180 210314 1470372 806094 351366 522200 631384 686030 481569 72896 1003555 628852 677444 392309 120946 1125957 113673 103242 1063224 216411 374651 2213070 1164808 245758 1258774 669638 127322 922952 3384466 335427 725971 26377 515619 709290 174818 69356
2021-08-18 41240 20456000 1468000 1632000 4876000 32321000 3930000 4573000 3139000 2138000 1772000 6574000 2632000 6140000 37133000 80970 644500 421600 973200 4175000 593800 363200 52840 114900 2942000 1243000 50180 210300 1471000 806100 352800 522200 635400 686200 482300 72900 1004000 630000 679800 395600 121200 1126000 113700 103400 1065000 216400 375700 2220000 1167000 247400 1261000 670200 128400 926100 3387000 335900 727600 26590 518000 709600 176300 69360
2021-08-19 41640 20498000 1470000 1633000 4878000 32367000 3958000 4615000 3159000 2140000 1782000 6594000 2645000 6161000 37152000 81380 645400 423500 975200 4179000 595000 363500 52840 115000 2942000 1245000 50180 210600 1472000 806900 353100 522900 639600 686800 483200 72970 1004000 630000 682600 399100 121200 1128000 113700 103400 1067000 216900 376900 2224000 1169000 249000 1263000 671600 128800 926100 3392000 336700 727600 26780 518000 710500 177500 69520
2021-08-20 42050 20536000 1473000 1634000 4879000 32407000 3987000 4659000 3177000 2141000 1792000 6615000 2658000 6182000 37216000 81670 647300 426100 977400 4186000 596000 364000 52870 115200 3080000 1250000 50340 211100 1474000 808400 355300 525400 645700 687600 484000 73080 1007000 630000 685200 402600 121200 1131000 113700 103400 1069000 217300 378100 2229000 1170000 250700 1265000 673800 129100 926100 3406000 337200 727600 26970 518000 712100 178600 69710
2021-08-21 42380 20573000 1475000 1635000 4880000 32444000 4016000 4695000 3199000 2142000 1802000 6634000 2669000 6203000 37298000 81670 649700 427900 979800 4195000 596000 364000 52950 115400 3080000 1250000 50540 211100 1474000 808400 355300 525400 645700 687600 484900 73210 1007000 630000 687500 405900 121300 1131000 113700 103400 1071000 217300 378100 2233000 1172000 252500 1266000 673800 129200 927200 3416000 337200 728300 27160 519200 712100 179400 69710
2021-08-22 42740 20585000 1478000 1636000 4882000 32480000 4042000 4742000 3199000 2144000 1812000 6654000 2678000 6223000 37385000 81670 652200 429100 982100 4204000 596000 364000 52950 115600 3080000 1250000 50920 211200 1474000 808400 355300 525400 645700 687600 485600 73260 1007000 630000 689800 409300 121500 1131000 113700 103500 1072000 217300 378100 2238000 1174000 254300 1268000 673800 129500 929200 3417000 337200 729300 27350 520700 712100 180100 69710
2021-08-23 43060 20595000 1480000 1636000 4882000 32515000 4053000 4791000 3210000 2144000 1823000 6672000 2684000 6244000 37485000 82500 655000 429600 984600 4214000 598300 365200 53400 115800 3080000 1261000 51020 212300 1481000 813300 356800 530200 658000 689900 486200 73260 1009000 630500 692100 412700 121700 1146000 113700 103600 1073000 218700 380600 2241000 1176000 256100 1270000 677200 129900 931900 3431000 338700 730700 27540 522600 713900 181800 70190
2021-08-24 43410 20628000 1482000 1637000 4885000 32549000 4073000 4831000 3226000 2145000 1833000 6691000 2693000 6265000 37589000 82830 657900 431800 987000 4224000 599300 365800 53410 116000 3080000 1268000 51470 213000 1484000 815300 356800 532500 662100 690900 487000 73580 1009000 631300 694300 416100 121900 1148000 114000 103700 1075000 219200 381600 2244000 1178000 258000 1272000 677200 130000 934800 3454000 339200 732200 27720 524600 715500 182600 70510

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-18 to 2021-08-24

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-08-17 6322241 35282880 670372 1156620 435940 503059 1676518 3837218 332622 4733602 118647 6378738 543749 367409 810549 327684 4449606 1906434 2885676 1006588 1088053 1112958 261804 393610 145761 744106
2021-08-18 6347000 35333000 671200 1159000 436900 503900 1677000 3842000 333400 4749000 119300 6398000 546600 367700 810600 329300 4454000 1908000 2886000 1009000 1088000 1114000 262000 393700 146200 746300
2021-08-19 6368000 35370000 671800 1160000 437500 504700 1677000 3844000 334200 4767000 119900 6419000 549300 367900 810700 331000 4457000 1910000 2886000 1011000 1089000 1114000 262100 393700 146600 747200
2021-08-20 6389000 35404000 672600 1161000 438100 505400 1677000 3847000 335000 4784000 120500 6439000 552100 368100 810700 332600 4460000 1912000 2886000 1013000 1089000 1115000 262200 393800 147100 748400
2021-08-21 6411000 35427000 673200 1162000 438600 506200 1677000 3848000 335800 4788000 121000 6457000 554900 368300 810700 334300 4463000 1913000 2886000 1014000 1089000 1115000 262300 393800 147400 748900
2021-08-22 6433000 35446000 673800 1163000 438900 506700 1677000 3849000 336700 4792000 121400 6473000 556800 368500 810700 335900 4466000 1915000 2886000 1016000 1090000 1115000 262400 393900 147700 749300
2021-08-23 6455000 35476000 674400 1165000 439500 507300 1677000 3851000 337500 4818000 121800 6478000 558900 368700 810800 337600 4467000 1916000 2887000 1017000 1090000 1115000 262400 393900 148000 750400
2021-08-24 6476000 35506000 675000 1167000 439900 508100 1678000 3853000 338400 4833000 122200 6493000 562700 369000 810800 339300 4469000 1917000 2887000 1018000 1090000 1116000 262600 394000 148300 751200

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-18 to 2021-08-24

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-08-17 40774 20416183 1465478 1630330 4874169 32285857 3892479 4517243 3123252 2135827 1765675 6551934 2624254 6118478 37017854 80973 641386 418955 970523 4163667 593476 363075 52843 114680 2917788 1242547 50180 210314 1470372 806094 351366 522200 631384 686030 481569 72896 1003555 628852 677444 392309 120946 1125957 113673 103242 1063224 216411 374651 2213070 1164808 245758 1258774 669638 127322 922952 3384466 335427 725971 26377 515619 709290 174818 69356
2021-08-18 41230 20453000 1467000 1631000 4877000 32311000 3916000 4561000 3141000 2137000 1777000 6567000 2635000 6139000 37149000 81300 644700 421000 973000 4172000 594500 363900 52960 114900 2926000 1249000 50720 211000 1474000 808500 352600 524700 636300 687100 482400 73010 1005000 630500 679700 396500 121300 1129000 113800 103400 1065000 217100 375500 2217000 1167000 248000 1261000 673700 127900 927200 3399000 336200 728100 26510 518300 710700 175700 69640
2021-08-19 41490 20492000 1468000 1632000 4880000 32331000 3941000 4598000 3161000 2138000 1787000 6577000 2647000 6161000 37222000 81690 646800 422800 975300 4176000 595600 364300 52990 115100 2937000 1254000 51320 211400 1476000 809900 353500 526000 640400 687600 483100 73090 1006000 631100 682300 399600 121400 1133000 114000 103500 1067000 217800 376600 2222000 1168000 249600 1263000 676900 128000 929200 3406000 336900 728800 26590 519400 711500 176100 69860
2021-08-20 41800 20530000 1470000 1633000 4884000 32350000 3966000 4632000 3179000 2140000 1797000 6587000 2659000 6182000 37456000 82010 649000 424900 977800 4180000 596400 364800 53040 115400 3013000 1259000 52030 211900 1478000 811600 355200 527900 646000 688200 483700 73160 1008000 631700 684700 402700 121500 1138000 114100 103600 1068000 218400 377700 2226000 1170000 251000 1265000 680400 128100 931500 3416000 337400 729600 26690 520600 712900 176400 70070
2021-08-21 42050 20561000 1471000 1634000 4887000 32368000 3993000 4662000 3199000 2141000 1808000 6597000 2670000 6203000 37495000 82170 650500 426500 980300 4185000 596600 365000 53080 115600 3021000 1261000 52630 212100 1479000 812400 355800 529300 646500 688300 484400 73250 1008000 632100 687100 405700 121600 1138000 114200 103700 1070000 218400 377900 2230000 1171000 251800 1266000 682800 128100 933700 3422000 337700 730500 26750 521300 713000 176700 70180
2021-08-22 42310 20578000 1472000 1635000 4890000 32386000 4015000 4699000 3206000 2142000 1818000 6607000 2680000 6225000 37515000 82330 652500 427600 982800 4189000 596800 365300 53100 115900 3029000 1262000 53280 212500 1480000 813400 356300 530700 646800 688500 485000 73290 1009000 632500 689300 408900 121700 1140000 114300 103900 1071000 218400 378200 2234000 1172000 252800 1268000 684800 128200 936200 3427000 338000 731500 26810 522000 713100 177000 70290
2021-08-23 42550 20591000 1474000 1636000 4894000 32403000 4034000 4738000 3218000 2143000 1828000 6617000 2689000 6246000 37629000 82860 654700 428400 985300 4194000 598200 366100 53290 116100 3038000 1270000 53850 213100 1484000 815800 357600 533000 656100 689500 485500 73310 1010000 633200 691500 412100 121800 1150000 114400 104000 1073000 219100 380200 2238000 1173000 255100 1270000 688600 128200 939200 3434000 339000 732600 26870 523500 714000 177600 70550
2021-08-24 42780 20618000 1475000 1636000 4898000 32421000 4057000 4774000 3235000 2144000 1837000 6626000 2698000 6267000 37719000 83110 657100 430300 987800 4199000 598800 366500 53310 116300 3046000 1275000 54470 213600 1486000 817200 358200 535100 660600 690000 486000 73430 1011000 633900 693800 415300 121900 1153000 114500 104100 1074000 219400 381200 2242000 1174000 256800 1272000 691100 128300 942200 3445000 339500 733700 26970 524700 714900 178000 70750

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed