COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-10-04


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-10-04

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-07-172021-07-272021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-222021-03-102021-07-262021-08-122021-04-112021-08-192021-04-132021-03-222021-08-202021-08-212021-07-152021-03-262021-07-20 --2021-04-132021-09-212021-09-222021-09-032021-09-07
Peak daily increment 43891 69587 3237 4980 3756 3823 12262 20926 1362 26567 760 42653 3275 2181 8671 1824 6503 9516 27942 3220 6130 987 747 1442 6446
Days since peak 79 69 193 197 196 290 216 165 208 70 53 176 46 174 196 45 44 81 192 76 174 13 12 31 27
Last total 7934936 37800941 750229 1251857 508800 575948 1694107 4265001 360411 4965399 143416 6857921 663433 408918 824876 394519 4683646 2009648 2911549 1071307 1274119 1153655 296083 416260 191017 844209
Last daily increment 34256 40386 1404 4660 2806 1849 317 4507 380 4271 1302 536 2125 219 1492 893 1612 1624 683 193 8292 0 225 267 484 2636
Last week 198701 296858 11466 11625 10830 15332 3819 48494 2584 11469 3329 23896 12055 7749 3350 7301 18597 10056 6918 3532 63309 2482 5089 6639 2722 6440
Previous peak date2021-01-0811-0611-1110-2811-1603-2710-2612-1612-182021-01-252021-03-1811-032021-04-0712-1211-292021-01-0811-1212-1811-082021-01-2311-122021-01-0510-292021-01-0311-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 57056 210467 7110 16473 3443 271 12285 23895 3419 37891 701 51954 2958 3554 5428 5771 34939 11039 24662 12347 9178 8567 1746 2815 1168 8404
Low between peaks -2803 -210854 1329 1726 429 -1037 3593 7354 362 -30756 67 10020 360 312 1056 219 716 422 5007 345 2601 28 24 165 78

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-10-04

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd) --2021-09-182021-04-122021-06-042021-06-262021-05-052021-07-152021-08-122021-08-182021-04-092021-09-102021-07-132021-07-022021-04-162021-08-30 --2021-08-262021-08-132021-08-262021-08-202021-09-062021-01-112021-09-072021-05-192021-08-062021-08-302021-08-292021-09-152021-09-022021-08-302021-08-302021-09-062021-09-062021-08-092021-01-102021-09-25 --2021-04-122021-09-212021-03-112021-08-162021-09-202021-09-062021-09-022021-09-252021-09-202021-01-132021-08-232021-09-062021-03-242021-09-162021-09-012021-08-232021-09-232021-09-0611-132021-09-072021-01-122021-09-132021-09-062021-09-242021-09-062021-09-202021-09-172021-09-21
Peak daily increment 111065 8651 7273 29826 387066 47193 38208 18308 8725 20220 24494 19350 58965 162702 5136 2236 3955 15339 1901 2579 261 595 35957 8912 1000 1946 1050 4098 4191 1660 4326 5893 5454 1241 7859 2254 57080 3631 893 7009 385 32237 432 5865 849 1136 20523 6780 4832 2271 4670 5463 1362 15468 21848 1015 3644 204 3422 2969 1803 525
Days since peak 16 175 122 100 152 81 53 47 178 24 83 94 171 35 39 52 39 45 28 266 27 138 59 35 36 19 32 35 35 28 28 56 267 9 175 13 207 49 14 28 32 9 14 264 42 28 194 18 33 42 11 28 325 27 265 21 28 10 28 14 17 13
Last total 115800 21478546 1648942 1657256 4963243 33853048 4220206 5638735 3684242 2178939 2604040 7500000 2906851 7267047 43852255 117451 801428 493138 1104535 4746449 678560 390832 61791 134644 3617145 1542537 77876 451479 261458 1637731 972067 413982 700384 743068 758001 537327 91465 1139672 717787 769284 490777 153479 1410902 134063 266230 121124 1160198 250688 424200 2445237 1433957 609491 334971 1449368 867315 145839 1188479 4093140 379269 877090 34388 666224 820739 245544 91979
Last daily increment 2389 10425 8377 654 1189 18346 922 14607 5262 0 10641 25150 429 28810 169207 2233 736 199 2113 14146 5138 1095 460 360 0 7071 188 0 1108 7119 6085 1820 4919 1723 3268 1078 0 9747 3526 689 1561 1474 11363 278 1286 1271 1241 1745 1871 5735 4212 0 3262 5315 6946 365 6061 8779 2245 7762 190 6942 6552 846 810
Last week 13077 96756 24941 4461 8867 136597 8746 79044 38643 4720 94863 144117 7963 171497 625773 5524 8796 4858 17084 42038 11287 2427 893 2813 37302 18854 1633 10826 7726 16747 15519 6671 15404 5005 7727 7591 3274 27695 12167 8662 4582 4989 25351 3489 3501 2910 10680 4163 4821 28686 32978 11658 8780 28890 15309 1844 16911 49628 5657 16597 1081 15926 16657 8542 2549
Previous peak date08-042021-03-242021-01-0706-062021-01-1609-152021-01-282021-04-1810-0508-022021-04-0212-222021-01-0612-102021-01-0912-062021-01-052021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-1804-202021-01-1012-062021-01-0211-0308-2711-1212-0811-0612-0511-162021-01-1011-1604-172021-01-092021-01-1311-2711-1911-142021-01-0811-172021-01-0212-0911-2612-1104-0811-2012-092021-01-0812-082021-01-0911-2712-102021-01-1208-2712-1411-0111-142021-01-172021-04-0112-0610-192021-01-0111-19
Previous peak daily increment 525 74845 7808 7348 17013 92157 12373 23864 22832 8380 10769 27994 17701 720121 239135 689 3868 2817 9263 43164 4984 1011 285 792 16406 21992 245 4362 1493 12563 6415 3244 3605 3407 2172 3015 578 7920 6763 5848 2921 1163 8243 2132 3072 793 4272 2333 2623 15820 17473 3943 1537 10187 4802 465 7648 26263 2491 6323 173 3223 12345 1433 800
Low between peaks 17342 2897 1343 3454 11282 3784 8824 2145 1490 5186 8228 937 6223 10994 111 155 411 -570 374 72 7 123 832 278 38 27 64 207 241 63 109 239 -21 54 985 62 222 101 41 226 11 -535 18 115 59 202 5625 235 87 130 138 84 232 48 9248 148 126 3 329 70 35 55

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-10-05 to 2021-10-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-10-04 7934936 37800941 750229 1251857 508800 575948 1694107 4265001 360411 4965399 143416 6857921 663433 408918 824876 394519 4683646 2009648 2911549 1071307 1274119 1153655 296083 416260 191017 844209
2021-10-05 7966000 37839000 751700 1254000 510000 577600 1694000 4273000 360800 4969000 143400 6869000 666500 409500 824900 395800 4685000 2012000 2913000 1073000 1284000 1156000 297400 416300 192500 846600
2021-10-06 7993000 37887000 753900 1256000 511400 580100 1694000 4284000 361000 4974000 144000 6876000 668600 411100 825200 397100 4687000 2014000 2914000 1074000 1293000 1157000 298700 416500 193700 849000
2021-10-07 8021000 37941000 755800 1258000 513000 582600 1695000 4296000 361300 4977000 144500 6885000 670700 412400 825700 398400 4689000 2016000 2915000 1074000 1302000 1158000 299700 417100 194700 850500
2021-10-08 8050000 37988000 757600 1260000 514700 584800 1696000 4304000 361600 4980000 145000 6891000 672800 413500 826200 399500 4691000 2017000 2916000 1075000 1309000 1158000 300600 417500 195500 851600
2021-10-09 8079000 38026000 759100 1260000 515600 587100 1696000 4309000 361900 4982000 145100 6898000 674500 414600 826200 400700 4693000 2019000 2917000 1076000 1316000 1158000 301500 417500 196100 851800
2021-10-10 8108000 38056000 761100 1260000 516000 589000 1697000 4313000 362200 4983000 145300 6903000 675500 415300 826200 401900 4694000 2020000 2918000 1076000 1322000 1158000 301900 418000 196600 851800
2021-10-11 8138000 38092000 762300 1265000 518700 590500 1697000 4316000 362600 4988000 146100 6904000 677500 415400 827400 403000 4695000 2021000 2919000 1076000 1328000 1158000 302100 418200 197100 854300

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-10-05 to 2021-10-11

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-10-04 115800 21478546 1648942 1657256 4963243 33853048 4220206 5638735 3684242 2178939 2604040 7500000 2906851 7267047 43852255 117451 801428 493138 1104535 4746449 678560 390832 61791 134644 3617145 1542537 77876 451479 261458 1637731 972067 413982 700384 743068 758001 537327 91465 1139672 717787 769284 490777 153479 1410902 134063 266230 121124 1160198 250688 424200 2445237 1433957 609491 334971 1449368 867315 145839 1188479 4093140 379269 877090 34388 666224 820739 245544 91979
2021-10-05 117400 21527000 1654000 1658000 4965000 33865000 4222000 5656000 3699000 2180000 2630000 7523000 2909000 7294000 44007000 118300 803800 495100 1107000 4753000 680000 391700 62080 135000 3617000 1550000 78220 451500 262600 1641000 975900 414400 706000 745600 760400 538300 92040 1140000 721400 771900 493700 154400 1419000 134500 267200 121300 1163000 251000 425300 2451000 1440000 609500 336500 1453000 873300 146600 1196000 4117000 379700 881100 34580 669700 823900 247700 92760
2021-10-06 120000 21567000 1657000 1658000 4966000 33874000 4223000 5671000 3711000 2181000 2655000 7545000 2910000 7318000 44169000 119100 805600 497000 1109000 4762000 681500 392400 62310 135300 3632000 1556000 78430 462700 264000 1645000 979800 417600 711100 747900 762200 539300 92630 1147000 723200 774400 495800 155700 1426000 135100 268300 121700 1165000 251500 426400 2456000 1448000 623000 338800 1457000 877400 147200 1204000 4138000 380900 885100 34800 672400 827000 249800 93290
2021-10-07 122100 21609000 1661000 1659000 4968000 33883000 4224000 5685000 3720000 2181000 2673000 7568000 2913000 7343000 44295000 120100 806800 498400 1112000 4771000 683700 392800 62500 135800 3638000 1561000 78750 462700 265500 1648000 983200 417800 714300 749300 763700 540600 93340 1147000 725400 776600 497600 156800 1432000 135700 269400 122200 1168000 252300 427600 2461000 1456000 623000 340700 1462000 880900 147700 1210000 4151000 382000 888600 35000 675300 829800 251800 93910
2021-10-08 124000 21635000 1666000 1660000 4969000 33893000 4225000 5699000 3726000 2183000 2689000 7591000 2914000 7367000 44458000 121100 807800 498900 1114000 4778000 685700 393600 62680 136400 3701000 1565000 79140 462700 267100 1651000 986500 420300 718300 750700 765400 542000 93930 1154000 728200 778500 498800 157700 1437000 136200 270400 122600 1170000 253000 428600 2466000 1462000 623000 342400 1467000 884800 148100 1213000 4162000 383100 891600 35190 678500 833300 253800 94390
2021-10-09 126200 21658000 1667000 1661000 4971000 33902000 4225000 5710000 3732000 2184000 2704000 7613000 2916000 7392000 44500000 121100 809100 500500 1117000 4785000 685700 393600 62700 136900 3701000 1565000 79420 465300 267800 1651000 986500 420300 718300 751000 765400 543200 94460 1154000 728200 780200 499100 157700 1437000 136700 271500 122600 1172000 253000 428600 2470000 1468000 623000 342400 1470000 885400 148100 1213000 4169000 383100 891800 35380 678500 833300 255400 94390
2021-10-10 128000 21675000 1667000 1661000 4972000 33912000 4225000 5721000 3735000 2184000 2717000 7637000 2916000 7417000 44507000 121100 809100 500900 1119000 4792000 685700 393600 62700 137300 3701000 1565000 79670 465300 268000 1651000 986500 420300 718300 751000 765400 544200 94460 1154000 728200 781000 499100 157700 1437000 136900 272600 122600 1173000 253000 428600 2474000 1474000 623000 342400 1475000 885400 148100 1213000 4169000 383100 891800 35560 678500 833300 256400 94390
2021-10-11 129800 21683000 1677000 1662000 4973000 33922000 4226000 5735000 3739000 2184000 2729000 7659000 2916000 7442000 44687000 123600 809400 501200 1121000 4798000 690400 394700 63210 137700 3707000 1571000 79860 469000 269200 1658000 992400 422100 723800 752600 768600 545100 94460 1163000 731400 781800 500400 159000 1448000 137100 273700 123500 1174000 254600 430600 2479000 1479000 623000 345700 1479000 892200 148400 1221000 4177000 385300 898900 35740 685500 839300 257400 95340

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-10-05 to 2021-10-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-10-04 7934936 37800941 750229 1251857 508800 575948 1694107 4265001 360411 4965399 143416 6857921 663433 408918 824876 394519 4683646 2009648 2911549 1071307 1274119 1153655 296083 416260 191017 844209
2021-10-05 7965000 37837000 751600 1253000 510900 578200 1695000 4270000 360800 4968000 143900 6864000 666400 409800 825200 395600 4685000 2011000 2913000 1072000 1286000 1155000 296900 417100 191500 845700
2021-10-06 7991000 37862000 753500 1255000 512200 580800 1695000 4276000 361100 4970000 144300 6868000 668500 411300 825500 396900 4687000 2013000 2914000 1072000 1296000 1155000 298000 418000 192100 847400
2021-10-07 8017000 37889000 755200 1257000 513700 583300 1696000 4281000 361400 4973000 144600 6874000 670600 412600 825900 398100 4689000 2014000 2915000 1073000 1307000 1156000 298900 418800 192600 848500
2021-10-08 8043000 37914000 756700 1259000 515100 585700 1696000 4285000 361700 4975000 144900 6878000 672800 413800 826300 399300 4690000 2016000 2916000 1073000 1317000 1156000 299600 419700 193000 849500
2021-10-09 8069000 37932000 758300 1259000 515900 588100 1697000 4288000 362000 4977000 144900 6883000 674600 415000 826300 400500 4692000 2017000 2917000 1074000 1326000 1157000 300400 420200 193200 850200
2021-10-10 8095000 37947000 759900 1260000 516300 590000 1697000 4291000 362400 4978000 145100 6887000 675900 415900 826300 401700 4694000 2018000 2918000 1074000 1333000 1157000 300900 420800 193500 850700
2021-10-11 8122000 37963000 760900 1263000 517900 591600 1697000 4293000 362700 4982000 145300 6889000 677900 416600 827000 402900 4695000 2020000 2918000 1075000 1340000 1157000 301200 421300 193900 852700

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-10-05 to 2021-10-11

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-10-04 115800 21478546 1648942 1657256 4963243 33853048 4220206 5638735 3684242 2178939 2604040 7500000 2906851 7267047 43852255 117451 801428 493138 1104535 4746449 678560 390832 61791 134644 3617145 1542537 77876 451479 261458 1637731 972067 413982 700384 743068 758001 537327 91465 1139672 717787 769284 490777 153479 1410902 134063 266230 121124 1160198 250688 424200 2445237 1433957 609491 334971 1449368 867315 145839 1188479 4093140 379269 877090 34388 666224 820739 245544 91979
2021-10-05 117600 21494000 1652000 1658000 4965000 33869000 4222000 5649000 3692000 2180000 2618000 7518000 2908000 7295000 43947000 118400 802700 493700 1107000 4753000 680200 391400 61930 135000 3620000 1548000 78070 452000 262800 1641000 974800 414400 704000 744300 759100 538100 91940 1141000 721600 770700 492000 154500 1414000 134700 266900 121900 1162000 251300 425300 2450000 1440000 609700 336700 1454000 869100 146500 1192000 4107000 380000 879500 34500 668200 823700 246600 92490
2021-10-06 119300 21513000 1656000 1658000 4966000 33881000 4223000 5659000 3701000 2180000 2634000 7528000 2908000 7321000 44059000 119400 804300 494600 1109000 4757000 681400 392000 62040 135400 3631000 1553000 78270 458500 264200 1644000 978000 416400 708100 745600 760100 538800 92510 1147000 723900 772600 493700 155600 1420000 135400 267700 122400 1164000 251800 426200 2454000 1445000 617200 338700 1459000 872000 146900 1198000 4122000 381000 882400 34650 670100 826200 248100 93030
2021-10-07 121000 21542000 1658000 1659000 4968000 33893000 4225000 5668000 3709000 2181000 2648000 7539000 2910000 7348000 44151000 120500 805400 495300 1112000 4761000 683200 392400 62150 135800 3641000 1557000 78510 459300 265600 1647000 981100 416900 711300 746500 760900 539700 93100 1148000 726200 774300 495100 156600 1424000 136000 268500 122800 1166000 252600 427300 2459000 1450000 618200 340400 1463000 874600 147300 1202000 4130000 381900 884900 34870 672100 828300 249600 93610
2021-10-08 122800 21560000 1662000 1660000 4969000 33904000 4227000 5677000 3716000 2182000 2660000 7550000 2911000 7374000 44283000 121500 806400 495600 1114000 4765000 684900 393000 62270 136400 3674000 1561000 78810 460000 267000 1649000 984000 418600 714900 747300 761800 540600 93600 1154000 728900 775900 496100 157400 1429000 136600 269200 123300 1168000 253200 428200 2464000 1455000 619100 342000 1468000 877600 147600 1206000 4137000 382900 887100 35060 674200 830800 251200 94100
2021-10-09 124500 21578000 1664000 1661000 4970000 33914000 4228000 5682000 3722000 2183000 2673000 7561000 2912000 7400000 44320000 122100 807900 496600 1116000 4768000 685000 393300 62290 136900 3678000 1563000 79060 461100 268000 1651000 985600 419200 716800 747800 762000 541400 94020 1155000 730000 777600 496700 157500 1430000 137100 270000 123500 1170000 253200 428500 2468000 1459000 620100 342700 1472000 878400 147700 1208000 4144000 383300 888300 35270 674400 830800 252700 94310
2021-10-10 125800 21587000 1666000 1662000 4972000 33925000 4229000 5690000 3729000 2183000 2685000 7572000 2913000 7426000 44341000 122700 809000 497100 1119000 4772000 685000 393600 62320 137300 3682000 1565000 79300 461800 268700 1652000 987300 419800 718600 748200 762200 542000 94120 1155000 731200 779000 497500 157600 1431000 137400 270800 123700 1171000 253200 428900 2473000 1462000 620900 343400 1476000 879500 147700 1210000 4147000 383800 889300 35480 674500 830800 254000 94500
2021-10-11 127100 21594000 1672000 1662000 4973000 33936000 4230000 5699000 3734000 2184000 2698000 7583000 2913000 7453000 44503000 124400 809600 497500 1121000 4775000 688800 394500 62720 137700 3689000 1571000 79490 463000 269900 1657000 991600 421200 723200 749300 764100 542700 94220 1160000 733400 780200 499100 158400 1444000 137700 271700 124100 1172000 254600 430400 2477000 1465000 621800 345900 1480000 887800 147900 1217000 4155000 385100 893900 35670 678900 834900 255200 95310

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed