Moderation of forecast
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts
to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x).
Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths)
after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line
with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-08] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this
can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.