COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-07-18

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	NO	CH
Peak date	04-09	04-04	04-06	04-15	--	04-11	04-08	04-15	04-04	03-31	04-21	04-08	04-19	04-24	03-29	04-04	04-25	04-15	05-03	04-21	04-07	04-06
Peak daily increment	984	3121	20	322		7	10	226	15	945	31	944	13	167	781	153	23	31	25	94	8	60
Days from 100 to peak	22	31	7	22		0	0	22	3	18	1	23	6	21	25	15	19	17	31	24	-2	14
Days from peak/2 to peak	16	21	16	21		22	13	22	15	14	20	18	26	22	20	16	31	23	39	27	20	19
Last total	45273	134893	711	9800	299	260	358	9091	611	28420	328	30046	596	1753	35042	6136	1618	1684	2009	5619	255	1969
Last daily increment	40	46	0	0	2	1	0	3	0	0	0	-3	1	1	14	-2	6	2	21	0	0	0
Last week	454	621	3	18	31	1	6	20	2	17	-1	137	1	7	88	-1	47	24	125	93	3	1
Days since peak	100	105	103	94		98	101	94	105	109	88	101	90	85	111	105	84	94	76	88	102	103

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-07-18

	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI
Peak date	--	05-06	--	--	06-16	--	--	06-24	06-14	07-12	05-29	--	04-15	04-14	--	04-09	--	--	04-24	04-20	04-29	06-23	--	04-07	05-21	05-12	05-01	04-14	04-14	04-14	04-25	04-29	04-14	05-29	04-30	05-05	--	05-20	05-29	06-25	05-11	--	04-09	04-29	04-17	04-09	05-05	--	--	--	04-22	04-06	04-11
Peak daily increment		168			1622			666	279	132	171		120	2161		8			71	106	11	49		45	14	112	42	6	10	64	453	56	137	23	17	18		41	28	1580	9		999	76	8	4	137				105	25	12
Days from 100 to peak		36			72			79	68	102	48		18	29		-37			21	18	10	60		7	27	41	27	-7	0	17	23	22	17	42	21	22		0	16	85	14		20	25	4	-20	32				7	15	2
Days from peak/2 to peak		37			52			72	65	105	49		20	20		9			27	20	30	73		12	50	44	35	19	19	21	20	27	18	57	35	37		30	31	81	39		15	30	23	22	33				10	30	18
Last total	78772	8892	8445	6516	26816	4016	13979	38888	12998	1773	12228	4948	5475	140119	1253	357	2730	7702	1752	4396	578	514	4895	3100	789	7290	2627	307	667	3399	8412	3356	6291	1538	1098	1346	1648	299	396	15699	569	646	32478	3132	451	257	7015	1135	827	3939	2025	1444	843
Last daily increment	921	8	98	228	543	59	188	578	199	113	122	144	17	853	21	4	148	99	1	0	1	2	90	30	4	18	17	2	9	0	17	17	9	5	10	14	25	0	1	15	4	9	15	20	6	3	11	39	23	119	12	11	10
Last week	6672	63	1466	1209	3642	410	1150	3882	1128	239	910	869	112	4914	160	36	494	651	27	48	10	6	653	149	37	103	60	11	42	91	95	53	50	36	40	97	126	15	5	174	24	53	128	74	29	23	111	174	98	723	59	7	23
Days since peak		73			32			24	34	6	50		94	95		100			85	89	80	25		102	58	67	78	95	95	95	84	80	95	50	79	74		59	50	23	68		100	80	92	100	74				87	103	98

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-19 to 2020-07-25

Date	UK	EU	BG	DE	FR	IT	PL	PT	RO	SE
2020-07-18	45273	134893	299	9091	30046	35042	1618	1684	2009	5619
2020-07-19	45390	135000	305	9105	30060	35060	1626	1690	2028	5633
2020-07-20	45390	135100	311	9105	30070	35070	1633	1695	2047	5642
2020-07-21	45510	135200	318	9110	30090	35080	1641	1701	2066	5651
2020-07-22	45610	135300	324	9114	30100	35100	1649	1706	2085	5676
2020-07-23	45670	135400	330	9121	30110	35110	1656	1712	2103	5699
2020-07-24	45770	135500	337	9123	30130	35130	1664	1717	2122	5719
2020-07-25	45820	135500	344	9127	30140	35140	1672	1723	2141	5719

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-19 to 2020-07-25

Date	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-IL	US-IN	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-VA	US-WI
2020-07-18	78772	8892	8445	6516	26816	4016	13979	38888	12998	1773	12228	4948	5475	140119	1253	357	2730	7702	1752	4396	4895	3100	789	7290	2627	667	3399	8412	3356	6291	1538	1098	1346	1648	15699	569	646	32478	3132	451	257	7015	1135	827	3939	2025	843
2020-07-19	79470	8904	8810	6633	27330	4120	14290	39190	13180	1773	12400	5116	5493	140200	1271	357	2840	7852	1752	4400	4914	3100	792	7317	2633	667	3412	8434	3365	6301	1542	1103	1350	1682	15740	573	654	32500	3154	451	260	7038	1143	848	4049	2039	843
2020-07-20	80160	8916	8990	6764	27840	4206	14600	39630	13360	1773	12500	5297	5510	140600	1291	359	2952	7988	1752	4404	5013	3106	796	7319	2635	667	3420	8457	3375	6311	1544	1108	1358	1717	15770	576	661	32520	3161	451	263	7041	1169	869	4146	2053	843
2020-07-21	81440	8927	9220	6881	28340	4298	14870	40400	13530	1773	12680	5485	5528	141600	1311	367	3068	8242	1762	4408	5180	3132	800	7341	2649	675	3441	8481	3384	6321	1549	1114	1383	1753	15820	580	668	32540	3179	454	265	7064	1208	891	4265	2067	847
2020-07-22	82580	8939	9540	7026	28840	4403	15160	41020	13710	1773	12840	5684	5545	142400	1333	372	3187	8463	1769	4411	5316	3157	803	7356	2659	682	3455	8505	3394	6330	1555	1119	1401	1790	15870	584	674	32570	3189	458	268	7089	1245	913	4426	2082	849
2020-07-23	83790	8951	9840	7183	29350	4501	15470	41660	13880	1773	12990	5892	5562	143300	1355	376	3311	8684	1771	4415	5529	3173	807	7379	2668	688	3475	8530	3403	6340	1563	1124	1416	1828	15930	587	681	32590	3209	462	270	7116	1316	936	4605	2096	854
2020-07-24	84950	8963	10300	7391	29860	4610	15740	42320	14060	1773	13170	6109	5579	144200	1378	385	3440	8887	1780	4419	5716	3201	811	7396	2676	695	3498	8556	3413	6349	1569	1129	1435	1867	15960	591	687	32610	3223	469	273	7137	1360	960	4765	2110	856
2020-07-25	85890	8974	10590	7716	30370	4706	15980	42860	14240	1809	13300	6336	5596	144800	1402	390	3575	9022	1782	4422	5844	3224	814	7413	2690	700	3502	8581	3422	6359	1573	1135	1447	1906	15980	595	694	32630	3236	473	275	7146	1401	984	4907	2125	864

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-19 to 2020-07-25

Date	UK	EU	BG	DE	FR	IT	PL	PT	RO	SE
2020-07-18	45273	134893	299	9091	30046	35042	1618	1684	2009	5619
2020-07-19	45300	134900	303	9090	30060	35050	1622	1688	2028	5620
2020-07-20	45330	135000	310	9091	30070	35060	1627	1694	2048	5629
2020-07-21	45430	135100	317	9096	30090	35080	1635	1699	2068	5639
2020-07-22	45500	135200	323	9099	30110	35090	1642	1705	2089	5662
2020-07-23	45580	135300	329	9108	30120	35100	1650	1710	2109	5682
2020-07-24	45660	135400	336	9113	30140	35120	1659	1716	2130	5709
2020-07-25	45740	135500	341	9120	30160	35130	1665	1722	2151	5712

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-19 to 2020-07-25

Date	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-IL	US-IN	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-VA	US-WI
2020-07-18	78772	8892	8445	6516	26816	4016	13979	38888	12998	1773	12228	4948	5475	140119	1253	357	2730	7702	1752	4396	4895	3100	789	7290	2627	667	3399	8412	3356	6291	1538	1098	1346	1648	15699	569	646	32478	3132	451	257	7015	1135	827	3939	2025	843
2020-07-19	79400	8900	8640	6745	27220	4108	14220	39030	13160	1780	12370	5100	5491	140300	1273	359	2763	7787	1754	4399	4974	3105	792	7299	2628	668	3411	8428	3362	6299	1539	1100	1353	1666	15710	573	650	32490	3147	452	259	7021	1146	839	4036	2028	843
2020-07-20	80180	8911	8850	6952	27760	4200	14490	39430	13350	1787	12500	5279	5509	140600	1298	361	2836	7912	1757	4402	5081	3115	796	7305	2630	670	3423	8446	3370	6309	1541	1106	1360	1691	15750	577	655	32520	3156	452	262	7030	1161	856	4153	2037	843
2020-07-21	81400	8921	9090	7160	28320	4296	14760	40230	13550	1798	12670	5463	5526	141300	1329	366	2919	8138	1763	4405	5235	3134	800	7326	2643	675	3442	8465	3379	6318	1545	1111	1384	1721	15800	580	666	32540	3177	455	265	7051	1187	875	4295	2050	846
2020-07-22	82540	8932	9350	7405	28890	4403	15020	40870	13750	1808	12830	5656	5543	142100	1361	370	3010	8352	1768	4408	5374	3159	807	7340	2652	682	3458	8484	3388	6327	1551	1117	1404	1750	15850	584	673	32560	3190	458	268	7073	1210	894	4455	2064	847
2020-07-23	83700	8944	9670	7703	29460	4508	15300	41530	13950	1820	12990	5856	5561	142800	1389	375	3104	8548	1771	4412	5527	3175	812	7360	2662	687	3475	8504	3397	6337	1558	1121	1420	1778	15890	588	683	32580	3214	462	271	7096	1268	915	4640	2082	851
2020-07-24	84840	8955	10140	8008	30050	4616	15550	42190	14170	1836	13160	6064	5578	143500	1422	380	3201	8728	1777	4415	5679	3195	816	7380	2672	693	3494	8525	3406	6346	1563	1127	1436	1804	15970	592	691	32610	3238	466	274	7117	1301	934	4805	2100	855
2020-07-25	85900	8965	10540	8362	30640	4723	15810	42690	14380	1859	13330	6279	5596	143900	1453	385	3301	8871	1780	4419	5825	3214	820	7397	2682	697	3507	8546	3415	6356	1566	1132	1448	1830	16020	596	701	32630	3252	470	277	7132	1336	955	4957	2114	862

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-19 to 2020-07-27

Date	UK	EU	BG	DE	FR	IT	PL	PT	RO	SE	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-IL	US-IN	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-VA	US-WI
2020-07-18	45273	134893	299	9091	30046	35042	1618	1684	2009	5619	78772	8892	8445	6516	26816	4016	13979	38888	12998	1773	12228	4948	5475	140119	1253	357	2730	7702	1752	4396	4895	3100	789	7290	2627	667	3399	8412	3356	6291	1538	1098	1346	1648	15699	569	646	32478	3132	451	257	7015	1135	827	3939	2025	843
2020-07-19	45370	135000	303	9096	30090	35050	1625	1693	2026	5641	79600	8905	8600	6686	27310	4098	14180	39270	13120	1773	12380	5114	5495	140700	1265	359	2764	7797	1756	4399	4973	3108	792	7306	2633	669	3418	8428	3365	6302	1542	1102	1359	1655	15720	573	655	32510	3146	453	259	7034	1145	842	4060	2035	843
2020-07-20	45440	135100	307	9100	30120	35060	1631	1700	2043	5651	80590	8916	8900	6901	27770	4176	14380	39750	13250	1774	12520	5288	5514	141400	1292	364	2838	7915	1760	4403	5076	3135	796	7321	2641	675	3435	8444	3373	6311	1546	1106	1373	1668	15740	577	664	32530	3160	456	263	7049	1180	854	4189	2046	843
2020-07-21	45510	135200	311	9103	30140	35070	1637	1705	2059	5659	81430	8926	9150	7114	28300	4251	14590	40150	13390	1799	12690	5464	5532	142200	1321	369	2904	8032	1764	4405	5209	3161	799	7336	2648	681	3453	8457	3381	6319	1551	1111	1387	1689	15750	580	673	32540	3173	460	266	7064	1214	873	4335	2051	846
2020-07-22	45570	135200	315	9106	30150	35080	1643	1710	2074	5668	82390	8935	9400	7340	28710	4318	14810	40530	13520	1831	12850	5626	5551	142800	1343	373	2975	8169	1768	4408	5329	3184	802	7349	2655	687	3472	8468	3388	6328	1555	1114	1401	1711	15780	584	682	32550	3185	464	271	7079	1242	894	4502	2060	849
2020-07-23	45630	135300	320	9109	30170	35090	1649	1716	2089	5676	83370	8942	9650	7529	29140	4394	15040	40890	13620	1860	13020	5785	5569	143600	1363	377	3055	8315	1771	4410	5437	3208	805	7362	2661	692	3484	8477	3396	6335	1558	1118	1410	1725	15790	587	691	32560	3197	467	275	7094	1271	911	4670	2067	852
2020-07-24	45690	135400	324	9112	30180	35100	1654	1721	2103	5685	84260	8951	9880	7737	29540	4457	15270	41230	13720	1881	13170	5922	5585	144300	1394	382	3142	8491	1774	4412	5562	3226	807	7373	2667	697	3497	8486	3403	6342	1561	1120	1420	1759	15810	590	699	32570	3208	470	279	7108	1303	932	4816	2075	855
2020-07-25	45760	135500	328	9115	30190	35100	1659	1725	2114	5692	85100	8957	10210	7909	29880	4528	15500	41520	13820	1881	13320	6097	5600	144900	1420	387	3231	8674	1776	4414	5708	3240	809	7384	2672	701	3509	8495	3410	6350	1564	1123	1429	1792	15830	592	708	32580	3219	473	283	7120	1339	954	4990	2080	858
2020-07-26	45820	135500	333	9118	30200	35110	1665	1730	2126	5699	85920	8965	10450	8074	30190	4597	15730	41860	13890	1881	13440	6256	5612	145500	1463	392	3314	8845	1777	4415	5840	3253	812	7394	2677	704	3519	8505	3417	6356	1567	1125	1435	1816	15840	594	715	32590	3229	476	287	7133	1380	980	5176	2085	861
2020-07-27	45880	135600	336	9120	30200	35120	1669	1733	2138	5705	86710	8972	10730	8208	30490	4665	15960	42130	13980	1881	13590	6409	5627	146200	1501	397	3400	9009	1779	4418	5989	3262	814	7404	2682	708	3528	8511	3422	6362	1569	1127	1443	1838	15850	597	723	32600	3239	477	291	7145	1412	1005	5336	2091	863

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-07-18

Gnereal information