COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-07-24

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	NO	CH
Peak date	04-09	04-04	04-06	04-15	--	04-11	04-08	04-15	04-04	03-31	04-21	04-08	04-03	04-19	04-24	03-29	04-04	04-25	04-15	05-03	04-21	04-07	04-06
Peak daily increment	984	3121	20	322		7	10	226	15	945	31	944	5	13	167	781	153	23	31	25	94	8	60
Days from 100 to peak	22	31	7	22		0	0	22	3	18	1	23	-11	6	21	25	15	19	17	31	24	-2	14
Days from peak/2 to peak	16	21	16	21		22	13	22	15	14	20	18	18	26	22	20	16	31	23	39	27	20	19
Last total	45677	135410	711	9817	337	261	369	9120	613	28432	329	30081	201	596	1763	35097	6139	1655	1712	2150	5697	255	1977
Last daily increment	123	102	0	5	8	0	4	10	1	3	1	9	0	0	0	5	0	4	7	24	21	0	2
Last week	404	517	0	17	38	1	11	29	2	12	1	35	7	0	10	55	3	37	28	141	78	0	8
Days since peak	106	111	109	100		104	107	100	111	115	94	107	112	96	91	117	111	90	100	82	94	108	109

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-07-24

	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI
Peak date	--	05-06	07-17	--	06-16	--	--	06-23	--	07-12	05-29	--	04-15	04-14	--	04-09	--	--	04-24	04-20	04-29	--	--	--	05-21	05-12	05-01	04-14	04-14	04-14	04-25	04-29	04-14	05-29	04-30	--	--	05-20	05-29	06-25	05-11	--	04-09	04-29	04-16	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	04-22	04-06	04-11
Peak daily increment		168	731		1662			707		97	171		120	2161		8			71	106	11				14	112	42	6	10	64	453	56	137	23	17			41	28	1554	9		999	76	7		137					105	25	12
Days from 100 to peak		36	93		72			78		102	48		18	29		-37			21	18	10				27	41	27	-7	0	17	23	22	17	42	21			0	16	85	14		20	25	3		32					7	15	2
Days from peak/2 to peak		37	64		52			70		108	49		20	20		9			27	20	30				50	44	35	19	19	21	20	27	18	57	35			30	31	81	39		15	30	22		33					10	30	18
Last total	85238	8923	8914	7975	31358	4665	15289	42645	17843	1879	13026	6343	5580	145546	1395	394	3143	8337	1790	4413	581	568	5653	3363	826	7385	2687	329	691	3603	8491	3407	6327	1566	1152	1463	1789	316	407	15765	601	722	32596	3297	484	282	7116	1385	923	4790	221	2067	1495	878
Last daily increment	1156	4	76	287	757	89	215	737	189	8	153	250	17	1130	38	8	80	136	4	3	0	48	135	78	6	18	4	8	7	29	14	7	5	5	6	27	33	2	2	35	5	13	2	41	7	9	23	51	13	168	5	13	14	0
Last week	6466	31	469	1459	4542	649	1310	3757	4845	106	798	1395	105	5427	142	37	413	635	38	17	3	54	758	263	37	95	60	22	24	204	79	51	36	28	54	117	141	17	11	66	32	76	118	165	33	25	101	250	96	851	24	42	51	35
Days since peak		79	7		38			31		12	56		100	101		106			91	95	86				64	73	84	101	101	101	90	86	101	56	85			65	56	29	74		106	86	99		80					93	109	104

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-25 to 2020-07-31

Date	UK	EU	BG	DE	FR	IT	PL	PT	RO	SE
2020-07-24	45677	135410	337	9120	30081	35097	1655	1712	2150	5697
2020-07-25	45790	135500	341	9126	30090	35110	1669	1717	2171	5710
2020-07-26	45800	135600	346	9126	30090	35120	1672	1721	2191	5710
2020-07-27	45800	135700	357	9127	30090	35130	1674	1726	2211	5724
2020-07-28	45910	135800	366	9132	30100	35140	1684	1731	2231	5731
2020-07-29	46000	135800	375	9137	30100	35150	1690	1735	2251	5754
2020-07-30	46050	135900	384	9144	30110	35160	1697	1740	2271	5766
2020-07-31	46150	136000	394	9150	30110	35170	1702	1744	2291	5786

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-25 to 2020-07-31

Date	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI
2020-07-24	85238	8923	8914	7975	31358	4665	15289	42645	17843	1879	13026	6343	5580	145546	1395	394	3143	8337	1790	568	5653	3363	826	7385	2687	329	691	3603	8491	3407	6327	1566	1152	1463	1789	15765	601	722	32596	3297	484	282	7116	1385	923	4790	221	2067	1495	878
2020-07-25	87230	8931	9042	8171	32150	4696	15440	43220	18300	1896	13240	6568	5598	145700	1422	399	3212	8521	1790	573	5902	3440	831	7410	2697	331	700	3655	8508	3416	6336	1571	1152	1491	1824	15960	605	722	32620	3297	484	286	7140	1411	954	5035	224	2077	1500	878
2020-07-26	88740	8938	9118	8449	32890	4823	15640	43450	18720	1909	13330	6805	5615	146200	1449	405	3279	8614	1790	579	6021	3517	835	7416	2699	333	702	3708	8526	3425	6344	1574	1152	1517	1861	15970	610	723	32640	3317	484	290	7144	1435	964	5164	225	2088	1506	879
2020-07-27	90170	8946	9225	8653	33620	4933	15860	43800	19410	1924	13410	7052	5633	146700	1477	410	3345	8732	1792	586	6149	3594	841	7420	2701	335	705	3752	8545	3434	6352	1577	1152	1533	1898	15990	614	726	32660	3332	486	295	7145	1459	975	5299	229	2098	1512	880
2020-07-28	92560	8954	9293	8940	34330	5024	16070	44690	20070	1936	13570	7309	5650	147700	1506	415	3410	8917	1800	593	6339	3674	849	7443	2719	337	709	3801	8565	3442	6360	1580	1152	1582	1937	16060	618	743	32680	3358	493	300	7171	1511	1003	5478	234	2109	1518	891
2020-07-29	94730	8961	9382	9213	35050	5168	16270	45410	20760	1949	13720	7578	5667	148700	1537	420	3474	9152	1808	600	6511	3755	854	7463	2731	339	714	3856	8585	3451	6368	1585	1152	1628	1976	16060	622	765	32700	3371	502	305	7194	1563	1025	5664	242	2119	1524	895
2020-07-30	97140	8969	9489	9587	35770	5297	16490	46130	21480	1962	13870	7857	5684	149800	1568	425	3540	9375	1819	607	6721	3839	860	7483	2745	342	720	3893	8606	3459	6375	1593	1152	1659	2016	16060	627	774	32720	3393	506	310	7212	1626	1060	5870	249	2130	1530	905
2020-07-31	99320	8977	9615	9954	36500	5420	16680	46830	22230	1975	14020	8148	5701	150700	1600	430	3606	9587	1826	614	6901	3924	864	7501	2750	344	727	3914	8627	3468	6383	1598	1159	1693	2057	16060	631	783	32740	3423	512	315	7235	1681	1081	6093	253	2141	1537	905

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-25 to 2020-07-31

Date	UK	EU	BG	DE	FR	IT	PL	PT	RO	SE
2020-07-24	45677	135410	337	9120	30081	35097	1655	1712	2150	5697
2020-07-25	45710	135400	339	9121	30090	35100	1659	1716	2163	5697
2020-07-26	45730	135500	344	9122	30100	35110	1663	1720	2183	5697
2020-07-27	45760	135600	352	9122	30110	35120	1667	1724	2204	5704
2020-07-28	45830	135700	360	9125	30110	35130	1673	1729	2224	5710
2020-07-29	45900	135800	368	9128	30120	35140	1679	1733	2245	5730
2020-07-30	45950	135900	375	9135	30130	35160	1684	1738	2266	5743
2020-07-31	46020	135900	383	9138	30140	35170	1690	1743	2288	5762

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-25 to 2020-07-31

Date	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI
2020-07-24	85238	8923	8914	7975	31358	4665	15289	42645	17843	1879	13026	6343	5580	145546	1395	394	3143	8337	1790	568	5653	3363	826	7385	2687	329	691	3603	8491	3407	6327	1566	1152	1463	1789	15765	601	722	32596	3297	484	282	7116	1385	923	4790	221	2067	1495	878
2020-07-25	86750	8926	8990	8190	31820	4737	15390	43080	18410	1900	13150	6498	5597	145900	1414	398	3202	8465	1791	571	5788	3411	829	7400	2696	330	696	3620	8504	3414	6334	1569	1155	1484	1819	15790	605	729	32610	3297	487	285	7126	1417	940	4942	223	2070	1497	879
2020-07-26	88310	8931	9056	8490	32490	4880	15570	43290	19210	1928	13260	6749	5614	146200	1438	403	3277	8567	1793	575	5920	3466	833	7408	2698	330	699	3643	8519	3422	6342	1572	1159	1505	1851	15810	609	735	32620	3313	489	290	7134	1445	960	5078	225	2076	1501	880
2020-07-27	89860	8937	9143	8740	33200	5004	15750	43610	20110	1957	13370	7035	5631	146600	1467	409	3354	8697	1795	579	6057	3523	838	7416	2700	331	703	3664	8536	3431	6351	1575	1163	1520	1887	15850	614	742	32640	3328	492	294	7139	1469	981	5227	229	2082	1505	881
2020-07-28	92240	8943	9220	9020	33920	5122	15940	44530	21070	1985	13510	7335	5648	147500	1499	415	3432	8909	1800	583	6237	3597	843	7436	2717	333	708	3690	8553	3440	6359	1578	1167	1560	1924	15900	618	759	32650	3358	498	301	7159	1527	1004	5400	233	2091	1511	890
2020-07-29	94450	8949	9299	9320	34650	5260	16110	45270	22120	2012	13670	7651	5666	148200	1535	421	3511	9157	1807	588	6407	3663	849	7454	2729	334	713	3714	8569	3448	6367	1583	1171	1598	1963	15920	623	774	32670	3372	503	305	7178	1580	1027	5624	242	2102	1517	894
2020-07-30	96830	8955	9397	9710	35390	5383	16300	45970	23260	2048	13820	7979	5683	149000	1572	427	3593	9391	1812	592	6608	3727	854	7474	2740	336	719	3739	8587	3457	6375	1591	1176	1627	2001	15940	627	787	32690	3391	508	311	7197	1649	1052	5858	247	2115	1523	899
2020-07-31	99180	8961	9540	10080	36150	5511	16450	46690	24520	2080	13980	8321	5700	149700	1609	433	3676	9605	1818	597	6820	3804	858	7492	2746	338	725	3764	8604	3465	6383	1596	1183	1660	2041	15960	632	800	32710	3410	514	317	7216	1698	1076	6103	250	2123	1530	900

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-25 to 2020-08-02

Date	UK	EU	BG	DE	FR	IT	PL	PT	RO	SE	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI
2020-07-24	45677	135410	337	9120	30081	35097	1655	1712	2150	5697	85238	8923	8914	7975	31358	4665	15289	42645	17843	1879	13026	6343	5580	145546	1395	394	3143	8337	1790	568	5653	3363	826	7385	2687	329	691	3603	8491	3407	6327	1566	1152	1463	1789	15765	601	722	32596	3297	484	282	7116	1385	923	4790	221	2067	1495	878
2020-07-25	45710	135500	342	9120	30090	35100	1661	1715	2163	5703	85940	8929	9015	8153	31670	4756	15480	42910	18340	1909	13150	6568	5598	146200	1413	397	3218	8408	1794	568	5800	3363	826	7399	2695	329	695	3638	8504	3415	6337	1569	1156	1478	1810	15780	604	728	32630	3297	490	284	7130	1416	944	4991	224	2073	1496	884
2020-07-26	45740	135600	348	9123	30100	35110	1665	1718	2180	5710	87050	8934	9130	8402	32150	4850	15690	43440	19040	1929	13260	6983	5614	147100	1433	403	3291	8547	1799	568	5942	3390	828	7414	2703	329	699	3680	8517	3423	6342	1573	1160	1500	1832	15800	608	741	32640	3307	497	289	7143	1464	961	5199	226	2079	1498	889
2020-07-27	45780	135700	355	9127	30100	35110	1669	1721	2199	5721	87990	8939	9229	8635	32610	4944	15900	43930	19760	1947	13340	7373	5629	148200	1468	410	3364	8709	1805	568	6095	3424	829	7427	2710	333	702	3723	8527	3429	6347	1577	1166	1521	1855	15820	612	757	32660	3325	505	293	7156	1516	980	5387	230	2085	1499	895
2020-07-28	45810	135800	363	9130	30110	35110	1673	1725	2216	5732	89190	8941	9325	8890	32920	5050	16140	44400	20380	1966	13420	7767	5644	149200	1511	418	3438	8878	1811	568	6251	3478	832	7439	2717	337	706	3762	8538	3436	6352	1580	1172	1545	1877	15830	615	771	32680	3338	513	298	7169	1568	1005	5642	235	2091	1503	899
2020-07-29	45840	135800	370	9133	30120	35110	1676	1730	2231	5743	90120	8945	9412	9118	33240	5167	16350	44740	20950	1983	13500	8177	5659	150300	1539	428	3513	9014	1817	568	6414	3498	835	7451	2723	340	709	3805	8546	3441	6361	1583	1177	1567	1903	15850	618	784	32690	3350	521	304	7180	1619	1025	5844	238	2096	1505	903
2020-07-30	45860	135900	378	9136	30120	35120	1680	1734	2245	5753	91090	8948	9491	9337	33640	5278	16650	45130	21630	2002	13540	8547	5667	151200	1587	436	3601	9194	1822	568	6571	3527	839	7462	2729	343	711	3836	8553	3447	6366	1587	1181	1590	1932	15860	620	798	32710	3363	527	308	7192	1673	1054	6048	243	2100	1508	907
2020-07-31	45880	136000	387	9139	30130	35120	1682	1736	2258	5763	92040	8951	9575	9549	33940	5392	16950	45410	22260	2019	13600	8982	5676	152000	1622	446	3688	9428	1828	568	6764	3552	842	7472	2734	345	713	3871	8561	3452	6370	1590	1184	1613	1956	15870	623	813	32720	3372	541	313	7202	1726	1078	6238	247	2106	1509	909
2020-08-01	45910	136000	396	9142	30130	35120	1684	1738	2270	5772	93020	8956	9648	9773	34180	5520	17230	45690	22960	2036	13660	9461	5687	152900	1670	454	3791	9721	1835	568	6926	3594	844	7481	2740	347	715	3904	8570	3457	6376	1592	1188	1641	1984	15870	625	830	32730	3379	544	317	7212	1781	1106	6421	251	2112	1509	912
2020-08-02	45930	136100	404	9145	30130	35120	1686	1742	2280	5782	93940	8959	9727	9964	34430	5633	17520	45980	23510	2052	13710	9846	5697	153400	1708	464	3869	9940	1840	568	7087	3645	845	7490	2745	348	717	3920	8576	3462	6380	1595	1190	1663	2006	15880	627	847	32740	3387	549	321	7221	1843	1131	6549	254	2116	1509	914

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-07-24

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