COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-07-25


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-07-25

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0904-0404-0604-15 --04-1104-0804-1504-0403-3104-2104-0804-0304-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-1505-0304-2104-0704-06
Peak daily increment 984 3121 20 322 7 10 226 15 945 31 944 5 13 167 781 153 23 31 25 94 8 60
Days from 100 to peak 22 31 7 22 0 0 22 3 18 1 23 -11 6 21 25 15 19 17 31 24 -2 14
Days from peak/2 to peak 16 21 16 21 22 13 22 15 14 20 18 18 26 22 20 16 31 23 39 27 20 19
Last total 45738 135461 712 9821 338 261 369 9124 613 28432 329 30081 201 596 1764 35102 6140 1664 1716 2165 5697 255 1977
Last daily increment 61 51 1 4 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 1 9 4 15 0 0 0
Last week 438 533 1 21 38 1 10 32 2 12 1 35 7 0 11 57 4 40 27 139 78 0 8
Days since peak 107 112 110 101 105 108 101 112 116 95 108 113 97 92 118 112 91 101 83 95 109 110

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-07-25

BrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date --05-0607-17 --06-16 -- --06-24 --07-1205-29 --04-1504-14 -- -- -- --04-2404-2004-2906-23 -- --05-2105-1205-0104-1404-1404-1404-2504-2904-1405-2904-30 -- --05-2005-2906-2505-1107-2104-0904-29 -- --05-05 -- -- --04-1704-2204-0604-11
Peak daily increment 168 736 1662 708 100 171 120 2161 71 106 11 46 14 112 42 6 10 64 453 56 137 23 17 41 28 1538 9 18 999 76 137 6 105 25 12
Days from 100 to peak 36 93 72 79 102 48 18 29 21 18 10 60 27 41 27 -7 0 17 23 22 17 42 21 0 16 85 14 100 20 25 32 -45 7 15 2
Days from peak/2 to peak 37 64 52 71 107 49 20 20 27 20 30 74 50 44 35 19 19 21 20 27 18 57 35 30 31 81 39 116 15 30 33 18 10 30 18
Last total 86449 8929 9020 8269 32060 4714 15484 42645 17843 1897 13172 6655 5596 146460 1413 399 3286 8408 1794 4413 581 569 5777 3413 826 7396 2698 328 696 3603 8503 3418 6327 1571 1155 1478 1811 316 409 15776 607 732 32608 3297 496 282 7124 1465 949 4990 222 2075 1494 891
Last daily increment 1211 6 106 294 702 49 195 0 0 18 146 312 16 900 18 5 143 71 4 0 0 1 124 50 0 11 11 -1 5 0 12 11 0 5 3 15 22 0 2 11 6 10 12 0 12 0 8 80 26 186 1 8 -1 13
Last week 6961 33 517 1533 4563 571 1296 3461 4656 66 849 1622 105 5926 159 42 525 693 42 17 3 55 795 308 33 101 69 20 26 170 79 57 34 30 57 123 159 17 11 70 36 85 113 123 45 22 102 310 116 978 25 48 47 47
Days since peak 80 8 39 31 13 57 101 102 92 96 87 32 65 74 85 102 102 102 91 87 102 57 86 66 57 30 75 4 107 87 81 99 94 110 105

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-26 to 2020-08-01

DateUKEUBEBGDEFRITPLPTROSE
2020-07-25 45738 135461 9821 338 9124 30081 35102 1664 1716 2165 5697
2020-07-26 45810 135500 9824 345 9126 30080 35110 1673 1721 2185 5707
2020-07-27 45810 135600 9827 352 9127 30100 35120 1675 1725 2204 5724
2020-07-28 45920 135700 9829 360 9132 30100 35130 1684 1730 2224 5730
2020-07-29 46000 135800 9832 367 9136 30100 35140 1690 1734 2243 5751
2020-07-30 46050 135900 9834 374 9144 30110 35150 1698 1739 2263 5762
2020-07-31 46150 136000 9837 382 9150 30120 35160 1703 1743 2282 5782
2020-08-01 46210 136000 9840 390 9154 30120 35170 1710 1748 2302 5782

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-26 to 2020-08-01

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-07-25 86449 8929 9020 8269 32060 4714 15484 42645 17843 1897 13172 6655 5596 146460 1413 399 3286 8408 1794 569 5777 3413 826 7396 2698 328 696 3603 8503 3418 6327 1571 1155 1478 1811 15776 607 732 32608 3297 496 282 7124 1465 949 4990 222 2075 1494 891
2020-07-26 87900 8934 9090 8670 32800 4908 15790 43220 18240 1910 13350 6885 5614 146900 1413 407 3426 8541 1799 576 5937 3441 829 7416 2699 330 702 3603 8520 3427 6336 1574 1155 1499 1821 16100 612 732 32630 3311 510 285 7145 1521 972 5176 222 2085 1504 891
2020-07-27 89500 8938 9200 8950 33510 5065 16090 43540 18730 1922 13430 7101 5631 147600 1413 415 3568 8663 1804 581 6103 3469 833 7421 2702 332 705 3603 8539 3437 6344 1578 1155 1511 1841 16150 616 732 32650 3325 519 288 7147 1561 995 5367 224 2094 1513 891
2020-07-28 91800 8943 9260 9270 34240 5213 16380 44420 19150 1933 13590 7319 5648 148800 1434 423 3714 8867 1809 587 6272 3518 840 7443 2720 334 709 3603 8558 3445 6351 1581 1162 1553 1876 16210 620 744 32660 3353 531 291 7171 1650 1018 5563 228 2104 1523 897
2020-07-29 94100 8948 9338 9580 34960 5407 16670 45130 19620 1945 13740 7528 5665 150000 1482 431 3863 9114 1814 592 6446 3558 844 7462 2732 336 714 3607 8578 3454 6359 1585 1169 1590 1907 16210 625 759 32680 3366 544 294 7193 1731 1041 5766 234 2115 1531 901
2020-07-30 96400 8952 9459 10020 35690 5585 16970 45800 20100 1956 13890 7739 5682 151000 1505 440 4018 9326 1819 597 6624 3572 849 7482 2746 338 720 3610 8599 3463 6367 1593 1188 1614 1935 16210 629 772 32700 3384 554 298 7212 1821 1065 5976 238 2125 1540 910
2020-07-31 98700 8957 9566 10440 36420 5746 17240 46490 20610 1967 14040 7952 5699 152200 1543 448 4179 9529 1824 602 6806 3622 853 7498 2752 340 727 3617 8619 3472 6374 1598 1194 1648 1969 16210 633 784 32720 3416 566 301 7233 1902 1089 6193 242 2135 1549 912
2020-08-01 101100 8962 9683 10780 37160 5836 17500 46660 21130 1979 14170 8166 5716 152900 1555 457 4346 9681 1829 607 6993 3674 855 7511 2763 342 732 3621 8640 3481 6381 1602 1198 1673 2005 16210 638 793 32740 3419 573 304 7240 1986 1114 6418 243 2146 1558 922

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-26 to 2020-08-01

DateUKEUBEBGDEFRITPLPTROSE
2020-07-25 45738 135461 9821 338 9124 30081 35102 1664 1716 2165 5697
2020-07-26 45760 135500 9821 342 9125 30090 35110 1667 1719 2184 5699
2020-07-27 45780 135600 9822 350 9125 30100 35120 1672 1722 2204 5711
2020-07-28 45870 135700 9823 358 9127 30100 35130 1678 1725 2225 5719
2020-07-29 45930 135800 9824 366 9129 30110 35140 1684 1729 2246 5741
2020-07-30 45990 135900 9826 373 9136 30120 35150 1690 1733 2267 5756
2020-07-31 46070 136000 9828 381 9140 30130 35150 1697 1737 2288 5778
2020-08-01 46130 136000 9829 387 9143 30130 35160 1703 1741 2310 5780

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-26 to 2020-08-01

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-07-25 86449 8929 9020 8269 32060 4714 15484 42645 17843 1897 13172 6655 5596 146460 1413 399 3286 8408 1794 569 5777 3413 826 7396 2698 328 696 3603 8503 3418 6327 1571 1155 1478 1811 15776 607 732 32608 3297 496 282 7124 1465 949 4990 222 2075 1494 891
2020-07-26 87700 8934 9076 8520 32690 4847 15740 42800 18290 1908 13280 6811 5613 146800 1425 406 3362 8475 1796 573 5889 3431 829 7405 2699 329 699 3617 8515 3425 6332 1573 1158 1495 1834 15820 610 735 32620 3314 498 284 7131 1475 964 5135 224 2079 1498 891
2020-07-27 89200 8939 9170 8760 33430 4974 16020 43120 19320 1934 13380 7029 5630 147200 1437 413 3468 8602 1799 578 6029 3456 834 7412 2700 331 703 3638 8529 3432 6339 1576 1163 1510 1866 15860 615 739 32640 3329 502 287 7138 1491 984 5292 226 2086 1502 891
2020-07-28 91500 8945 9246 9050 34170 5096 16310 44030 20380 1957 13530 7257 5647 148100 1454 422 3578 8813 1803 583 6212 3505 840 7432 2717 333 707 3661 8544 3440 6346 1580 1168 1550 1903 15910 619 756 32660 3360 508 291 7158 1552 1008 5474 230 2094 1508 895
2020-07-29 93800 8951 9328 9340 34930 5252 16600 44770 21540 1981 13670 7495 5664 149000 1489 430 3692 9052 1810 588 6384 3550 846 7450 2729 335 712 3684 8560 3448 6354 1584 1174 1588 1939 15930 624 772 32680 3376 515 294 7177 1617 1031 5719 233 2103 1514 898
2020-07-30 96100 8957 9425 9730 35690 5384 16900 45450 22810 2013 13820 7727 5681 149900 1512 439 3809 9282 1817 593 6589 3581 851 7469 2741 337 718 3706 8576 3456 6361 1592 1181 1615 1975 15940 629 784 32700 3395 521 297 7196 1685 1057 5962 237 2114 1520 906
2020-07-31 98500 8963 9548 10110 36480 5514 17170 46160 24190 2041 13970 7949 5698 150700 1540 448 3930 9498 1822 599 6803 3631 855 7487 2746 340 724 3727 8592 3464 6368 1598 1189 1649 2014 15960 633 796 32720 3417 528 301 7215 1740 1081 6210 241 2123 1528 907
2020-08-01 100700 8968 9659 10450 37270 5617 17450 46630 25590 2074 14120 8191 5715 151300 1560 457 4055 9679 1826 604 6996 3678 860 7503 2758 342 730 3749 8609 3472 6375 1601 1195 1677 2053 15990 638 806 32730 3428 534 305 7229 1803 1107 6450 243 2131 1532 913

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-26 to 2020-08-03

DateUKEUBEBGDEFRITPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-07-25 45738 135461 9821 338 9124 30081 35102 1664 1716 2165 5697 86449 8929 9020 8269 32060 4714 15484 42645 17843 1897 13172 6655 5596 146460 1413 399 3286 8408 1794 569 5777 3413 826 7396 2698 328 696 3603 8503 3418 6327 1571 1155 1478 1811 15776 607 732 32608 3297 496 282 7124 1465 949 4990 222 2075 1494 891
2020-07-26 45800 135600 9821 346 9127 30100 35110 1669 1721 2184 5720 87100 8934 9033 8500 32640 4853 15680 43330 18750 1916 13290 6884 5615 147400 1435 404 3376 8526 1799 569 5939 3488 828 7415 2703 331 701 3633 8516 3426 6340 1575 1160 1498 1837 15820 610 737 32640 3315 502 285 7143 1498 969 5192 225 2082 1501 891
2020-07-27 45850 135700 9822 352 9131 30100 35120 1675 1726 2204 5731 88080 8940 9186 8770 33060 4958 15880 43790 19380 1937 13390 7084 5632 148300 1456 410 3476 8642 1804 572 6086 3578 831 7429 2711 334 705 3659 8530 3433 6345 1579 1166 1517 1873 15840 614 748 32660 3336 507 288 7159 1557 992 5370 229 2089 1508 894
2020-07-28 45910 135700 9825 359 9134 30110 35130 1680 1729 2223 5741 89010 8947 9265 9050 33340 5062 16070 44160 20010 1952 13480 7345 5647 149200 1479 415 3581 8746 1810 572 6255 3658 834 7443 2720 337 710 3685 8541 3440 6348 1584 1172 1537 1910 15850 619 759 32670 3356 514 292 7172 1609 1011 5571 233 2096 1513 898
2020-07-29 45960 135800 9827 364 9137 30130 35130 1685 1731 2242 5751 89940 8952 9322 9330 33630 5173 16250 44550 20500 1968 13580 7790 5663 150100 1500 422 3677 8861 1817 572 6430 3746 836 7456 2728 341 713 3706 8551 3447 6352 1588 1177 1559 1950 15870 623 770 32690 3373 519 296 7186 1673 1035 5796 236 2102 1519 901
2020-07-30 46010 135900 9829 372 9140 30130 35140 1689 1734 2258 5763 90900 8959 9388 9670 33790 5300 16510 44810 21430 1984 13650 7973 5676 151100 1532 429 3784 8978 1824 572 6600 3843 839 7469 2735 344 716 3725 8562 3453 6356 1592 1181 1588 1986 15870 626 779 32710 3387 525 299 7198 1737 1058 6014 241 2107 1525 905
2020-07-31 46050 135900 9831 379 9144 30130 35150 1695 1736 2275 5775 91880 8964 9450 9980 33980 5417 16710 45090 21430 1997 13720 8189 5691 151900 1554 434 3893 9097 1830 574 6762 3901 842 7480 2742 347 720 3752 8573 3458 6359 1596 1186 1610 2021 15880 630 788 32720 3402 531 303 7212 1792 1083 6190 244 2112 1528 908
2020-08-01 46100 136000 9833 385 9147 30130 35150 1699 1738 2289 5788 92990 8971 9511 10320 34210 5531 16960 45420 21430 2013 13780 8451 5702 152900 1592 442 3998 9224 1834 574 6923 3997 844 7491 2749 349 723 3784 8583 3463 6363 1599 1190 1633 2058 15890 632 797 32740 3416 537 308 7224 1846 1109 6429 248 2117 1530 909
2020-08-02 46140 136000 9835 392 9150 30130 35160 1705 1741 2303 5801 94090 8978 9565 10640 34360 5652 17170 45700 21430 2027 13830 8704 5714 153700 1621 449 4101 9349 1839 574 7124 4044 847 7503 2755 351 726 3798 8592 3469 6366 1602 1193 1655 2093 15890 635 806 32760 3430 543 312 7235 1898 1138 6656 253 2124 1534 912
2020-08-03 46170 136100 9836 400 9153 30140 35160 1711 1744 2315 5810 95040 8985 9613 10970 34560 5777 17350 46010 21430 2040 13880 9017 5724 154500 1648 456 4198 9481 1845 574 7288 4112 848 7514 2762 352 729 3806 8600 3474 6369 1605 1194 1677 2165 15900 637 813 32770 3444 550 316 7246 1949 1164 6847 256 2129 1537 912

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths