COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-09-05

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	NO	CH
Peak date	04-10	04-06	04-06	04-15	--	04-11	04-08	04-15	04-04	03-31	04-21	04-08	04-03	04-19	04-24	03-29	04-04	04-25	04-15	--	04-12	04-07	04-06
Peak daily increment	964	3096	20	328		7	10	226	15	946	30	943	5	13	167	781	153	23	31		98	8	60
Days from 100 to peak	23	33	7	22		0	0	22	3	18	1	23	-11	6	21	25	15	19	17		18	-2	14
Days from peak/2 to peak	17	23	16	21		22	13	22	15	14	20	18	18	26	22	20	16	31	23		21	20	19
Last total	41549	140833	735	9906	671	274	431	9329	627	29418	336	30575	280	624	1777	35534	6241	2113	1838	3850	5835	264	2013
Last daily increment	12	98	0	5	6	0	2	2	0	0	0	-1	1	3	0	16	4	13	5	38	0	0	0
Last week	50	1135	2	12	58	0	8	29	3	407	1	105	18	10	0	57	17	80	19	272	14	0	8
Days since peak	148	152	152	143		147	150	143	154	158	137	150	155	139	134	160	154	133	143		146	151	152

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-09-05

	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
Peak date	--	07-21	05-06	07-17	08-23	06-16	--	07-27	06-24	07-23	07-12	05-29	07-22	04-15	04-13	07-22	--	07-21	08-06	04-24	04-20	04-29	06-23	08-04	--	05-21	08-03	05-12	05-02	04-12	--	04-14	04-25	04-29	04-14	05-28	--	08-04	--	05-20	05-29	06-25	05-13	08-19	05-18	08-29	--	07-28	05-05	07-28	08-21	07-27	04-17	04-22	04-06	04-11	04-23
Peak daily increment		1065	168	785	563	1662		214	683	2947	92	171	323	125	2226	24		78	140	72	105	11	46	177		14	6	112	99	6		64	459	56	137	23		30		40	25	1566	9	18	3573	114		5	137	45	25	386	6	104	25	12	16
Days from 100 to peak		115	36	93	133	72		144	79	107	102	48	84	18	28	100		100	131	21	18	10	60	124		27	23	41	28	-9		17	23	22	17	41		113		0	17	85	16	129	59	147		89	32	103	131	115	-45	7	15	2	-89
Days from peak/2 to peak		106	37	63	116	52		144	72	78	108	49	76	20	19	113		108	133	27	20	30	74	124		50	128	44	32	17		21	20	27	18	56		126		30	31	81	41	145	49	150		131	33	119	143	111	18	11	30	18	4
Last total	753	126203	9192	11551	20886	70626	7940	22154	67326	29554	3790	17707	14779	6620	188538	2151	882	5206	13709	1971	4468	611	608	11811	5839	1164	372	8166	3138	480	993	4872	9110	3787	6731	1851	1580	2569	2889	403	432	15985	800	1388	32968	4256	850	480	7750	2877	1831	13576	347	2677	1949	1168	246
Last daily increment	5	701	2	57	268	1065	108	110	475	149	53	109	101	56	783	7	9	36	71	16	0	0	2	61	45	6	0	23	11	2	6	0	16	11	8	4	47	11	50	0	0	7	6	13	7	8	4	5	15	31	25	150	1	15	1	15	1
Last week	101	5375	28	307	1523	6157	597	692	3168	947	270	662	751	294	5514	84	98	177	772	29	3	5	4	692	365	51	13	147	66	31	64	104	67	43	59	35	116	128	197	12	0	48	30	86	80	127	51	22	92	168	115	893	12	108	48	46	32
Days since peak		46	122	50	13	81		40	73	44	55	99	45	143	145	45		46	30	134	138	129	74	32		107	33	116	126	146		144	133	129	144	100		32		108	99	72	115	17	110	7		39	123	39	15	40	141	136	152	147	135

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-06 to 2020-09-12

Date	UK	EU	BG	DE	ES	FR	IT	PL	RO
2020-09-05	41549	140833	671	9329	29418	30575	35534	2113	3850
2020-09-06	41560	141000	684	9333	29420	30590	35560	2117	3899
2020-09-07	41560	141100	697	9336	29420	30600	35580	2122	3948
2020-09-08	41560	141300	710	9340	29420	30610	35600	2140	4014
2020-09-09	41580	141400	724	9350	29420	30620	35620	2157	4067
2020-09-10	41590	141500	737	9353	29420	30630	35640	2170	4122
2020-09-11	41590	141700	751	9357	29420	30640	35650	2178	4179
2020-09-12	41610	141800	766	9360	29420	30650	35670	2191	4237

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-06 to 2020-09-12

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-09-05	753	126203	9192	11551	20886	70626	7940	22154	67326	29554	3790	17707	14779	6620	188538	2151	882	5206	13709	1971	11811	5839	1164	8166	3138	480	993	4872	9110	3787	6731	1851	1580	2569	2889	15985	800	1388	32968	4256	850	480	7750	2877	1831	13576	2677	1949	1168	246
2020-09-06	778	127100	9198	11620	21190	71410	8078	22260	67750	29570	3849	17770	14910	6669	189400	2161	906	5265	13800	1971	11950	5902	1172	8172	3144	480	994	4936	9128	3795	6744	1862	1606	2599	2927	15990	804	1405	32980	4274	860	485	7762	2910	1864	13800	2692	1957	1168	250
2020-09-07	797	127600	9204	11670	21400	72230	8220	22370	67990	29610	3907	17840	15040	6717	189800	2175	931	5265	13870	1971	12000	5926	1180	8180	3148	480	1000	4948	9146	3802	6755	1863	1633	2622	2973	16000	808	1405	32990	4277	862	486	7762	2922	1872	13850	2706	1966	1168	254
2020-09-08	817	128800	9209	11710	21670	73230	8362	22480	68730	29690	3965	17960	15170	6764	190900	2192	956	5269	14000	1974	12170	6019	1188	8214	3165	483	1014	4974	9163	3810	6765	1868	1660	2649	3021	16020	812	1419	33000	4296	871	492	7780	2953	1901	13990	2720	1974	1175	258
2020-09-09	836	129800	9215	11740	21910	74230	8509	22580	69270	29780	4022	18070	15290	6811	192000	2202	981	5324	14160	1979	12300	6076	1196	8240	3179	489	1028	4995	9181	3817	6776	1878	1688	2682	3070	16030	816	1441	33010	4313	885	497	7808	2986	1918	14180	2734	1982	1186	262
2020-09-10	856	130700	9220	11820	22110	75250	8658	22690	69760	29860	4080	18180	15420	6857	192900	2213	1007	5372	14310	1983	12430	6144	1203	8262	3185	496	1037	5010	9199	3824	6786	1885	1716	2696	3120	16040	820	1468	33020	4341	898	500	7823	3009	1940	14370	2748	1989	1192	266
2020-09-11	876	131500	9225	11890	22170	76290	8810	22790	70220	29950	4137	18280	15550	6904	193800	2234	1033	5403	14460	1985	12510	6205	1222	8288	3199	501	1047	5024	9217	3831	6796	1892	1745	2714	3171	16060	824	1478	33040	4357	907	505	7834	3043	1966	14500	2762	1997	1197	270
2020-09-12	897	132100	9230	11950	22440	77260	8964	22900	70710	30030	4195	18390	15680	6951	194600	2248	1060	5432	14530	1998	12580	6266	1224	8304	3210	503	1052	5024	9235	3838	6806	1896	1774	2729	3222	16070	828	1489	33050	4365	913	510	7847	3075	1988	14620	2777	2005	1211	274

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-06 to 2020-09-12

Date	UK	EU	BG	DE	ES	FR	IT	PL	RO
2020-09-05	41549	140833	671	9329	29418	30575	35534	2113	3850
2020-09-06	41550	140900	680	9330	29430	30590	35540	2119	3898
2020-09-07	41560	141000	696	9332	29450	30600	35550	2127	3952
2020-09-08	41560	141100	709	9336	29480	30610	35550	2141	4019
2020-09-09	41570	141300	720	9346	29500	30630	35560	2156	4079
2020-09-10	41580	141400	731	9348	29540	30640	35570	2167	4139
2020-09-11	41590	141500	744	9352	29570	30650	35580	2177	4202
2020-09-12	41600	141700	754	9357	29600	30670	35580	2189	4263

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-06 to 2020-09-12

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-09-05	753	126203	9192	11551	20886	70626	7940	22154	67326	29554	3790	17707	14779	6620	188538	2151	882	5206	13709	1971	11811	5839	1164	8166	3138	480	993	4872	9110	3787	6731	1851	1580	2569	2889	15985	800	1388	32968	4256	850	480	7750	2877	1831	13576	2677	1949	1168	246
2020-09-06	771	126800	9195	11600	21190	71380	8056	22210	67510	29650	3846	17760	14880	6644	188800	2159	896	5221	13740	1971	11820	5873	1169	8172	3140	481	997	4899	9120	3791	6741	1853	1587	2577	2918	15990	803	1390	32980	4254	854	483	7755	2888	1847	13620	2691	1952	1168	249
2020-09-07	783	127400	9201	11660	21470	72310	8186	22280	67770	29790	3905	17850	14990	6682	189000	2174	915	5229	13810	1972	11870	5911	1177	8179	3143	482	1005	4915	9132	3796	6752	1854	1603	2599	2957	15990	807	1393	32990	4255	858	485	7761	2903	1861	13660	2707	1956	1168	253
2020-09-08	800	128400	9207	11710	21790	73280	8329	22340	68530	29950	3965	17950	15110	6723	189800	2190	935	5244	13940	1973	12020	5992	1186	8206	3158	484	1016	4939	9146	3803	6763	1858	1625	2628	3002	16000	811	1405	33000	4266	868	490	7777	2933	1886	13780	2723	1963	1171	258
2020-09-09	819	129400	9212	11760	22080	74250	8478	22410	69060	30110	4025	18050	15220	6763	190600	2203	957	5278	14100	1976	12130	6051	1194	8231	3171	488	1028	4959	9160	3810	6773	1868	1648	2662	3048	16010	815	1422	33010	4276	882	495	7800	2963	1904	13950	2739	1968	1182	263
2020-09-10	847	130200	9217	11840	22400	75230	8652	22470	69510	30270	4085	18150	15340	6804	191400	2216	977	5319	14250	1979	12240	6113	1203	8250	3179	494	1036	4979	9174	3818	6784	1877	1670	2680	3091	16010	819	1445	33030	4293	895	498	7813	2990	1927	14120	2755	1973	1188	268
2020-09-11	861	131100	9223	11900	22630	76230	8812	22540	69960	30440	4147	18250	15450	6845	192100	2234	999	5352	14390	1982	12350	6178	1219	8273	3192	497	1045	5005	9189	3825	6795	1885	1692	2704	3137	16020	823	1459	33040	4307	905	504	7829	3024	1953	14290	2771	1981	1193	273
2020-09-12	879	131800	9228	11970	22950	77230	8979	22600	70510	30620	4209	18350	15570	6887	192700	2254	1021	5385	14490	1988	12470	6257	1223	8287	3201	500	1052	5019	9203	3832	6805	1890	1716	2725	3184	16030	827	1474	33050	4329	916	509	7844	3059	1976	14400	2787	1985	1202	279

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-09-06 to 2020-09-14

Date	UK	EU	BG	DE	ES	FR	IT	PL	RO	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-09-05	41549	140833	671	9329	29418	30575	35534	2113	3850	753	126203	9192	11551	20886	70626	7940	22154	67326	29554	3790	17707	14779	6620	188538	2151	882	5206	13709	1971	11811	5839	1164	8166	3138	480	993	4872	9110	3787	6731	1851	1580	2569	2889	15985	800	1388	32968	4256	850	480	7750	2877	1831	13576	2677	1949	1168	246
2020-09-06	41560	141100	682	9335	29470	30600	35540	2121	3895	779	127000	9199	11600	21150	71330	8077	22230	67710	29680	3850	17800	14890	6668	189700	2168	909	5224	13820	1971	11910	5902	1173	8178	3142	485	1006	4921	9117	3789	6746	1857	1580	2598	2902	15990	803	1399	32980	4266	864	484	7762	2895	1853	13650	2700	1962	1169	251
2020-09-07	41570	141300	694	9341	29500	30610	35550	2132	3926	803	127600	9202	11640	21410	72270	8202	22320	68180	29810	3898	17890	14980	6720	190800	2182	930	5243	13930	1971	12000	5954	1181	8191	3147	491	1017	4945	9134	3795	6760	1862	1596	2616	2944	15990	807	1410	32990	4275	875	488	7776	2910	1871	13750	2725	1967	1177	259
2020-09-08	41580	141500	705	9346	29540	30610	35560	2142	3969	837	128300	9207	11690	21650	73100	8352	22400	68600	29910	3940	17990	15070	6774	192000	2195	950	5263	14020	1971	12080	6012	1190	8204	3152	497	1028	4969	9142	3800	6774	1866	1619	2633	2975	15990	809	1420	33000	4284	885	492	7786	2929	1890	13810	2752	1971	1186	265
2020-09-09	41590	141700	717	9352	29580	30610	35570	2149	4011	869	128900	9209	11730	21890	73980	8482	22470	69040	30020	3971	18080	15150	6841	193500	2205	973	5283	14110	1974	12150	6068	1198	8219	3155	504	1040	5008	9146	3805	6789	1870	1634	2650	3009	15990	812	1429	33010	4291	897	496	7796	2947	1910	13880	2783	1974	1196	271
2020-09-10	41600	141900	729	9357	29620	30610	35580	2159	4057	897	129400	9213	11760	22120	74780	8668	22540	69440	30120	4013	18180	15230	6902	195100	2216	995	5301	14200	1976	12210	6125	1206	8229	3158	510	1059	5054	9146	3808	6809	1874	1652	2665	3064	16000	814	1438	33020	4297	908	498	7808	2965	1933	13940	2817	1975	1207	278
2020-09-11	41610	142100	739	9362	29650	30610	35590	2165	4107	923	130000	9215	11790	22320	75550	8774	22620	69860	30210	4048	18260	15300	6970	197000	2226	1012	5317	14290	1976	12270	6183	1213	8239	3162	517	1079	5101	9146	3811	6827	1877	1670	2678	3106	16000	817	1446	33020	4303	918	501	7818	2982	1950	14000	2855	1978	1220	288
2020-09-12	41620	142300	750	9367	29690	30610	35600	2172	4148	947	130400	9218	11820	22520	76290	8917	22680	70240	30280	4080	18350	15370	7046	198900	2234	1031	5331	14360	1976	12330	6238	1219	8241	3163	524	1096	5151	9146	3814	6849	1880	1688	2691	3148	16000	819	1453	33030	4310	928	504	7826	2998	1973	14100	2893	1979	1233	297
2020-09-13	41620	142500	761	9372	29730	30610	35620	2178	4179	974	130800	9220	11850	22700	77060	9060	22750	70650	30330	4111	18420	15430	7108	201100	2242	1053	5345	14430	1977	12380	6297	1225	8250	3164	531	1115	5208	9146	3817	6871	1883	1702	2703	3187	16000	821	1461	33030	4316	937	505	7832	3014	1992	14170	2936	1980	1248	306
2020-09-14	41620	142700	772	9377	29760	30610	35630	2184	4228	998	131200	9221	11870	22860	77750	9167	22810	70980	30370	4140	18500	15480	7168	203200	2248	1076	5357	14490	1979	12440	6353	1231	8254	3164	538	1133	5273	9146	3819	6893	1886	1720	2714	3227	16000	823	1468	33040	4323	948	507	7837	3025	2009	14220	2978	1982	1263	312

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-09-05

General information