COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-09-10

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	NO	CH
Peak date	04-10	04-06	04-06	04-15	09-05	04-11	04-08	04-15	04-04	03-31	04-21	04-08	04-03	04-19	04-19	04-24	03-29	04-04	04-25	04-15	--	04-12	04-07	04-06
Peak daily increment	964	3095	20	328	9	7	10	226	15	946	30	943	5	3	13	167	781	153	23	31		98	8	60
Days from 100 to peak	23	33	7	22	114	0	0	22	3	18	1	23	-11	-36	6	21	25	15	19	17		18	-2	14
Days from peak/2 to peak	17	23	16	21	162	22	13	22	15	14	20	18	18	25	26	22	20	16	31	23		21	20	19
Last total	41608	141673	748	9917	706	274	448	9345	629	29699	337	30656	297	208	630	1781	35587	6249	2159	1852	4065	5843	265	2020
Last daily increment	14	181	1	0	4	0	4	3	1	71	0	13	4	2	2	0	10	3	12	3	47	1	1	1
Last week	71	938	13	16	41	0	19	18	2	281	1	80	18	13	9	4	69	12	59	19	253	8	1	7
Days since peak	153	157	157	148	5	152	155	148	159	163	142	155	160	144	144	139	165	159	138	148		151	156	157

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-09-10

	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
Peak date	09-03	07-21	05-06	07-17	08-11	06-16	--	07-27	06-24	07-23	07-12	05-29	07-22	04-15	04-13	07-22	09-05	07-21	08-08	04-24	04-20	04-29	06-23	08-10	08-27	05-21	--	05-12	05-02	04-12	04-14	04-14	04-25	04-29	04-14	05-28	09-05	08-04	--	05-20	05-29	06-25	05-13	08-13	05-18	08-29	08-28	07-28	05-05	07-28	08-21	07-27	04-17	04-22	04-06	04-11	04-23
Peak daily increment	34	1065	168	785	315	1662		214	683	2947	92	171	323	125	2226	24	16	78	139	72	105	11	46	177	65	14		112	99	6	10	64	459	56	137	23	24	29		40	25	1566	9	19	3573	103	10	5	137	45	25	386	6	104	25	12	16
Days from 100 to peak	108	115	36	93	121	72		144	79	107	102	48	84	18	28	100	112	100	133	21	18	10	60	130	149	27		41	28	-9	0	17	23	22	17	41	149	113		0	17	85	16	123	59	147	137	89	32	103	131	115	-45	7	15	2	-89
Days from peak/2 to peak	157	106	37	63	115	52		144	72	78	108	49	76	20	19	113	151	108	135	27	20	30	74	130	152	50		44	32	17	19	21	20	27	18	56	161	126		30	31	81	41	139	49	151	155	131	33	119	143	111	18	11	30	18	4
Last total	797	129522	9213	11781	22275	76271	8456	22798	69649	30236	4066	18207	15265	6895	191766	2176	940	5272	14077	1979	4478	616	613	12326	6059	1207	407	8242	3186	503	1035	4991	9160	3813	6816	1884	1617	2656	2990	427	434	16014	816	1429	33001	4354	876	497	7807	2975	1956	13930	356	2708	1981	1193	258
Last daily increment	9	983	9	79	222	1209	120	129	600	113	80	127	97	58	907	15	12	22	94	2	4	1	4	216	75	3	4	28	13	4	22	21	20	11	5	15	10	33	32	6	1	6	3	17	3	30	13	3	13	33	58	7	3	11	7	10	3
Last week	49	4020	23	287	1387	6710	624	754	2798	831	329	609	587	331	4011	32	67	102	439	24	10	5	7	576	265	49	35	99	59	25	48	119	66	37	93	37	84	98	151	24	2	36	22	54	40	106	30	22	72	129	150	504	10	46	33	40	13
Days since peak	7	51	127	55	30	86		45	78	49	60	104	50	148	150	50	5	51	33	139	143	134	79	31	14	112		121	131	151	149	149	138	134	149	105	5	37		113	104	77	120	28	115	12	13	44	128	44	20	45	146	141	157	152	140

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-11 to 2020-09-17

Date	UK	EU	BG	ES	FR	IT	PL	RO
2020-09-10	41608	141673	706	29699	30656	35587	2159	4065
2020-09-11	41610	141800	719	29740	30670	35600	2173	4138
2020-09-12	41620	142000	724	29780	30680	35610	2186	4191
2020-09-13	41620	142100	729	29820	30700	35620	2190	4247
2020-09-14	41630	142200	735	29860	30710	35630	2194	4301
2020-09-15	41650	142400	748	29890	30720	35640	2208	4360
2020-09-16	41660	142500	756	29930	30730	35650	2221	4422
2020-09-17	41670	142700	762	29970	30750	35660	2233	4485

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-11 to 2020-09-17

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI
2020-09-10	797	129522	9213	11781	22275	76271	8456	22798	69649	30236	4066	18207	15265	6895	191766	2176	940	5272	14077	1979	12326	6059	1207	407	8242	3186	503	1035	4991	9160	3813	6816	1884	1617	2656	2990	427	16014	816	1429	33001	4354	876	497	7807	2975	1956	13930	2708	1981	1193
2020-09-11	801	130900	9217	11850	22500	77450	8626	22920	70240	30430	4126	18300	15370	6951	193100	2219	954	5350	14320	1981	12440	6161	1223	416	8272	3198	505	1044	5029	9180	3821	6816	1893	1626	2694	3015	435	16030	820	1456	33010	4390	894	504	7827	3023	1976	14280	2721	1988	1194
2020-09-12	807	131500	9222	11910	22720	78590	8795	23030	70740	30610	4182	18410	15480	7005	193800	2231	968	5382	14380	1994	12500	6217	1226	423	8290	3207	507	1050	5029	9200	3828	6816	1896	1634	2704	3057	438	16040	823	1465	33020	4410	899	509	7839	3053	1998	14370	2734	1994	1207
2020-09-13	812	131800	9226	11960	22950	79710	8951	23140	70950	30780	4236	18470	15590	7059	194100	2231	981	5391	14380	1994	12530	6260	1231	432	8295	3210	508	1053	5073	9219	3835	6816	1900	1643	2713	3059	440	16050	827	1465	33030	4410	900	510	7839	3061	2005	14430	2747	2001	1207
2020-09-14	818	132200	9231	12020	23170	80810	9122	23260	71160	30950	4289	18520	15700	7112	194400	2235	995	5391	14410	1996	12580	6276	1236	440	8303	3215	510	1056	5084	9238	3842	6816	1903	1651	2722	3064	444	16050	831	1465	33040	4428	900	511	7850	3076	2012	14480	2760	2007	1207
2020-09-15	824	132900	9235	12060	23390	81920	9295	23370	71850	31120	4343	18640	15800	7165	195100	2240	1008	5398	14510	1997	12660	6321	1247	449	8319	3228	511	1062	5102	9258	3848	6816	1907	1659	2734	3086	449	16070	834	1472	33050	4450	905	516	7862	3091	2040	14570	2773	2013	1209
2020-09-16	831	133900	9240	12080	23610	83040	9479	23480	72400	31290	4396	18760	15910	7218	196100	2246	1022	5423	14660	2001	12810	6368	1262	458	8346	3244	525	1077	5113	9277	3855	6816	1914	1667	2766	3131	453	16080	838	1489	33060	4476	914	522	7879	3118	2066	14680	2787	2019	1224
2020-09-17	837	134800	9244	12160	23830	84160	9657	23590	72930	31460	4450	18880	16020	7271	197000	2261	1036	5449	14770	2004	12990	6439	1267	467	8371	3254	529	1093	5132	9297	3862	6816	1925	1676	2791	3159	456	16090	841	1509	33070	4504	927	525	7892	3147	2109	14740	2800	2026	1232

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-11 to 2020-09-17

Date	UK	EU	BG	ES	FR	IT	PL	RO
2020-09-10	41608	141673	706	29699	30656	35587	2159	4065
2020-09-11	41610	141800	713	29730	30660	35590	2167	4122
2020-09-12	41620	141900	719	29780	30670	35600	2179	4178
2020-09-13	41620	142000	726	29820	30680	35610	2186	4237
2020-09-14	41630	142200	733	29860	30700	35610	2193	4294
2020-09-15	41640	142300	744	29900	30710	35620	2205	4358
2020-09-16	41650	142500	753	29940	30720	35630	2218	4421
2020-09-17	41660	142600	762	29980	30730	35640	2231	4486

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-11 to 2020-09-17

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI
2020-09-10	797	129522	9213	11781	22275	76271	8456	22798	69649	30236	4066	18207	15265	6895	191766	2176	940	5272	14077	1979	12326	6059	1207	407	8242	3186	503	1035	4991	9160	3813	6816	1884	1617	2656	2990	427	16014	816	1429	33001	4354	876	497	7807	2975	1956	13930	2708	1981	1193
2020-09-11	806	130000	9215	11830	22480	77060	8582	22850	70050	30410	4110	18270	15360	6937	192400	2189	952	5290	14200	1981	12360	6107	1217	411	8261	3192	505	1038	5001	9169	3818	6822	1888	1627	2669	3012	429	16020	819	1436	33010	4373	882	501	7818	3001	1961	14040	2719	1983	1195
2020-09-12	819	130600	9218	11890	22710	78090	8730	22910	70550	30570	4166	18360	15460	6988	192900	2201	967	5314	14270	1989	12410	6158	1222	415	8277	3200	507	1042	5008	9180	3825	6830	1891	1640	2678	3050	429	16030	823	1446	33020	4393	886	504	7830	3027	1971	14140	2731	1984	1206
2020-09-13	832	131000	9221	11940	22940	79120	8867	22990	70760	30700	4227	18440	15560	7038	193100	2206	982	5328	14270	1991	12440	6203	1227	419	8285	3202	509	1046	5037	9192	3832	6838	1894	1653	2688	3057	431	16030	826	1448	33030	4394	888	506	7834	3040	1976	14190	2744	1986	1206
2020-09-14	845	131400	9225	12000	23160	80160	9012	23050	70980	30870	4267	18510	15670	7089	193200	2214	996	5336	14300	1993	12480	6231	1234	423	8295	3206	511	1050	5049	9204	3838	6847	1896	1665	2695	3067	432	16030	830	1452	33040	4404	890	508	7845	3057	1983	14240	2757	1989	1206
2020-09-15	858	132200	9230	12050	23350	81210	9163	23120	71680	31020	4314	18620	15770	7139	193700	2225	1012	5349	14400	1996	12560	6282	1245	428	8314	3219	514	1057	5068	9217	3845	6856	1900	1678	2715	3092	434	16040	833	1461	33050	4423	896	513	7856	3076	2003	14340	2770	1992	1209
2020-09-16	872	133100	9234	12100	23630	82270	9322	23190	72240	31190	4375	18730	15880	7191	194500	2237	1027	5378	14560	2000	12700	6337	1255	433	8339	3233	521	1068	5087	9229	3852	6866	1908	1691	2753	3130	436	16050	837	1477	33060	4440	907	518	7873	3107	2023	14460	2783	1996	1222
2020-09-17	886	133900	9238	12170	23900	83340	9496	23260	72750	31360	4439	18830	15980	7242	195200	2251	1042	5411	14710	2003	12830	6403	1261	438	8363	3238	527	1078	5104	9241	3858	6877	1916	1704	2771	3155	437	16060	840	1500	33070	4473	919	521	7886	3132	2045	14590	2796	1999	1227

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-09-11 to 2020-09-19

Date	UK	EU	BG	ES	FR	IT	PL	RO	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI
2020-09-10	41608	141673	706	29699	30656	35587	2159	4065	797	129522	9213	11781	22275	76271	8456	22798	69649	30236	4066	18207	15265	6895	191766	2176	940	5272	14077	1979	12326	6059	1207	407	8242	3186	503	1035	4991	9160	3813	6816	1884	1617	2656	2990	427	16014	816	1429	33001	4354	876	497	7807	2975	1956	13930	2708	1981	1193
2020-09-11	41620	141800	716	29720	30670	35590	2170	4093	810	130100	9216	11830	22500	77100	8529	22880	70040	30400	4112	18270	15360	6944	192500	2185	958	5293	14150	1983	12330	6086	1216	409	8256	3188	507	1035	5011	9170	3819	6824	1885	1632	2670	2995	427	16020	819	1440	33010	4354	882	499	7816	2994	1956	14110	2723	1981	1196
2020-09-12	41630	141900	723	29760	30680	35600	2180	4124	822	130600	9218	11870	22690	78010	8626	22980	70460	30540	4154	18370	15440	7005	193200	2193	972	5321	14230	1987	12400	6149	1225	412	8268	3194	512	1043	5031	9183	3823	6832	1888	1647	2683	3017	430	16030	822	1450	33010	4354	888	501	7825	3011	1956	14190	2733	1985	1202
2020-09-13	41640	142000	731	29810	30680	35600	2191	4161	833	131000	9221	11900	22870	79010	8719	23070	70910	30670	4191	18450	15530	7059	193900	2203	986	5338	14300	1989	12460	6187	1231	416	8279	3198	518	1050	5048	9190	3826	6836	1891	1662	2693	3034	435	16030	825	1458	33020	4354	894	504	7833	3028	1971	14270	2741	1988	1206
2020-09-14	41650	142100	739	29870	30690	35610	2202	4191	844	131400	9222	11930	23040	79760	8805	23160	71310	30770	4224	18530	15600	7112	194600	2211	1000	5354	14370	1991	12520	6241	1237	422	8285	3201	523	1058	5058	9194	3828	6839	1893	1678	2703	3058	436	16040	828	1467	33020	4357	899	507	7840	3043	1983	14330	2749	1992	1210
2020-09-15	41650	142200	746	29920	30700	35620	2215	4219	854	131900	9223	11960	23210	80530	8892	23240	71760	30880	4254	18610	15670	7170	194900	2215	1014	5366	14430	1995	12570	6284	1244	425	8291	3202	529	1067	5066	9199	3829	6840	1894	1694	2714	3078	440	16050	830	1473	33020	4363	905	509	7847	3056	1996	14390	2754	1992	1215
2020-09-16	41670	142300	754	29990	30700	35620	2226	4244	861	132300	9223	11990	23380	81170	8974	23320	72170	30960	4282	18680	15740	7225	195200	2221	1027	5372	14490	1997	12630	6316	1247	433	8298	3202	536	1073	5077	9199	3831	6840	1895	1708	2723	3092	445	16050	831	1478	33030	4369	910	511	7853	3067	2007	14450	2764	1992	1218
2020-09-17	41680	142300	761	30040	30710	35630	2235	4273	872	132600	9225	12030	23510	81780	9056	23380	72550	31070	4310	18750	15800	7279	195500	2228	1043	5387	14530	2000	12670	6354	1251	433	8305	3203	545	1082	5088	9204	3831	6840	1895	1722	2733	3106	445	16060	833	1486	33030	4374	915	514	7854	3077	2021	14500	2769	1992	1222
2020-09-18	41690	142400	767	30090	30710	35630	2247	4305	879	133100	9226	12060	23650	82350	9134	23440	72890	31160	4340	18800	15860	7325	195700	2234	1055	5394	14570	2001	12710	6384	1255	433	8310	3205	552	1087	5101	9204	3831	6840	1895	1736	2742	3124	445	16060	834	1493	33030	4379	920	515	7854	3087	2030	14540	2777	1992	1225
2020-09-19	41700	142500	774	30120	30720	35640	2261	4333	887	133400	9227	12090	23770	82870	9212	23500	73240	31240	4366	18860	15920	7357	195900	2237	1068	5406	14620	2003	12750	6417	1258	433	8317	3205	558	1090	5103	9204	3834	6840	1895	1748	2751	3141	445	16070	836	1503	33030	4385	924	517	7856	3100	2039	14590	2789	1992	1229

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-09-10

General information