COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-10-24


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-10-24

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESINOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)04-1006-1909-0708-15 --10-06 --10-1308-1006-1904-2109-18 -- -- --07-2308-1509-26 --07-05 --09-01 --08-1406-16
Peak daily increment 964 805 5 9 2 25 1 914 30 61 4 127 19 7 4 3 7
Days since peak 197 127 47 70 18 11 75 127 186 36 93 70 28 111 53 71 130
Last total 44745 163198 965 10737 1084 343 2077 10035 700 34752 353 34236 564 429 1390 1882 37210 7019 4351 2297 6318 5933 235 279 2081
Last daily increment 174 829 11 79 7 3 106 27 3 0 0 0 5 16 38 4 151 55 179 21 73 0 21 0 14
Last week 1099 6418 72 324 98 29 655 237 20 977 2 1182 55 66 248 30 667 268 778 116 446 15 47 1 -42
Previous peak date --04-0604-0604-15 --04-11 --04-1504-0403-31 --04-08 -- --04-2304-2403-2904-0404-2404-1505-0204-12 --04-0704-06
Previous peak daily increment 3095 20 328 7 226 15 946 943 14 167 781 153 26 31 25 98 8 60
Low between peaks -892 0 2 -2 3 0 -1351 7 0 6 -6 3 -5 0 1

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-10-24

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date (mm-dd)09-0307-2110-0207-1708-2309-1209-23 --10-0507-2309-14 --07-2209-2408-0409-1609-1507-2108-0610-1307-1309-0906-2308-0708-2209-18 --09-0905-1208-15 -- --08-0908-2004-2909-0905-28 --08-26 --09-2310-0905-2005-2906-2505-1308-1308-3108-29 --07-2805-0507-28 -- --07-2710-0209-1508-06 --09-16
Peak daily increment 35 1065 80 785 318 1159 122 1744 2947 159 323 69 1078 99 124 78 138 29 9 1 46 175 66 5 19 112 12 36 106 56 38 23 31 30 9 40 25 1566 9 18 26 92 5 137 45 386 5 68 13 5
Days since peak 51 95 22 99 62 42 31 19 93 40 94 30 81 38 39 95 79 11 103 45 123 78 63 36 45 165 70 76 65 178 45 149 59 31 15 157 148 121 164 72 54 56 88 172 88 89 22 39 79 38
Last total 905 156903 9969 13892 30000 118534 13205 32320 88743 34033 6934 25647 18944 9727 224889 2866 1797 5868 17343 2218 4577 642 680 16417 7620 211 1634 572 9481 3882 956 1404 5614 9832 4073 7439 2328 2613 3255 294 4144 448 595 473 16281 965 1739 33398 5206 1245 653 8636 3793 366 3056 17915 459 3574 2293 1770 424
Last daily increment 0 432 29 48 198 578 128 335 431 49 19 294 53 69 914 7 15 4 38 7 0 0 2 77 41 3 5 10 63 24 6 8 0 9 9 38 14 100 17 12 30 8 9 2 8 5 5 1 22 11 4 28 16 10 24 142 1 39 0 25 0
Last week 0 3228 153 257 1030 3924 694 1945 2576 331 282 1608 473 431 5215 78 93 42 364 42 35 1 15 450 166 25 102 44 267 178 97 86 64 102 42 181 94 184 84 53 210 44 48 7 70 31 29 61 139 74 33 171 143 43 184 450 18 144 58 196 22
Previous peak date -- --05-06 -- --06-16 --03-20 -- --07-12 -- --04-1504-13 -- -- -- --04-2404-2004-29 -- --04-07 --05-22 -- --05-02 --04-1404-1404-25 --04-14 --05-05 -- -- -- -- -- --04-22 --04-1205-1804-2904-21 -- --04-29 -- -- --04-1704-2204-0604-1104-23
Previous peak daily increment 168 1662 150 92 125 2223 72 105 11 44 14 99 10 64 459 137 18 317 10 3573 76 9 24 6 104 25 14 16
Low between peaks 4 388 20 16 532 2 3 1 12 5 12 -1 6 52 3 7 15 6 1 9 -17 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-25 to 2020-10-31

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSI
2020-10-24 44745 163198 965 10737 1084 343 2077 10035 700 34752 34236 564 429 1390 1882 37210 7019 4351 2297 6318 235
2020-10-25 44940 164100 968 10810 1096 347 2121 10050 702 34880 34260 576 440 1431 1886 37320 7069 4508 2303 6360 242
2020-10-26 45080 165000 971 10870 1108 351 2214 10090 704 35000 34300 588 456 1472 1889 37430 7108 4662 2309 6421 248
2020-10-27 45260 165900 974 10930 1119 355 2315 10130 706 35120 34340 599 471 1514 1892 37540 7158 4820 2314 6487 254
2020-10-28 45430 166800 977 10990 1130 359 2434 10140 708 35230 34380 610 487 1557 1895 37640 7206 4979 2319 6554 259
2020-10-29 45600 167600 980 11050 1141 363 2533 10160 710 35340 34420 621 510 1601 1898 37750 7244 5143 2323 6634 265
2020-10-30 45780 168500 983 11110 1152 367 2636 10190 712 35450 34460 632 524 1647 1901 37850 7280 5312 2328 6709 271
2020-10-31 45940 169400 985 11170 1163 371 2766 10220 714 35560 34500 643 536 1694 1904 37960 7325 5488 2333 6775 277

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-25 to 2020-10-31

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-10-24 156903 9969 13892 30000 118534 13205 32320 88743 34033 6934 25647 18944 9727 224889 2866 1797 5868 17343 2218 4577 16417 7620 211 1634 572 9481 3882 956 1404 5614 9832 4073 7439 2328 2613 3255 294 4144 448 595 16281 965 1739 33398 5206 1245 653 8636 3793 366 3056 17915 3574 2293 1770 424
2020-10-25 157300 9990 13950 30140 119100 13310 32540 88740 34120 6990 25840 19030 9800 225100 2880 1814 5882 17410 2222 4578 16560 7658 211 1634 577 9481 3882 956 1404 5635 9848 4079 7439 2329 2613 3258 300 4144 458 595 16290 969 1748 33410 5225 1249 653 8636 3793 370 3058 17980 3592 2293 1770 427
2020-10-26 157700 10010 14000 30290 119600 13410 32800 88910 34200 7044 26020 19120 9860 225500 2882 1831 5883 17410 2227 4579 16610 7673 211 1650 584 9502 3903 969 1412 5649 9864 4085 7460 2335 2627 3258 306 4149 463 600 16300 973 1750 33420 5241 1254 657 8650 3803 371 3070 18000 3609 2306 1789 430
2020-10-27 158200 10030 14020 30450 120200 13510 33010 89350 34270 7099 26280 19210 9930 226400 2896 1848 5889 17480 2232 4580 16690 7690 214 1672 592 9541 3943 988 1427 5654 9880 4090 7485 2342 2642 3281 312 4198 470 608 16310 976 1761 33430 5260 1273 664 8682 3831 376 3101 18070 3624 2328 1817 432
2020-10-28 158800 10040 14040 30610 120700 13600 33200 89680 34350 7151 26560 19290 9990 227400 2920 1865 5902 17590 2242 4582 16780 7712 225 1687 603 9597 3957 1006 1442 5663 9896 4096 7509 2370 2657 3301 318 4235 481 614 16320 980 1768 33440 5290 1292 666 8710 3846 380 3129 18170 3639 2334 1849 435
2020-10-29 159400 10060 14100 30760 121300 13700 33360 89920 34430 7204 26810 19380 10060 228200 2945 1882 5910 17670 2246 4583 16860 7736 227 1694 609 9636 3986 1027 1456 5671 9912 4101 7546 2385 2672 3312 323 4272 488 621 16340 983 1773 33450 5305 1304 668 8733 3877 396 3156 18200 3653 2338 1864 438
2020-10-30 159900 10080 14170 30920 121800 13790 33510 90580 34500 7257 27080 19470 10120 229100 2963 1899 5917 17720 2257 4584 16930 7780 229 1716 618 9670 4011 1044 1469 5691 9927 4107 7564 2400 2688 3319 329 4304 499 626 16340 987 1775 33460 5334 1317 678 8763 3896 404 3201 18300 3668 2345 1892 441
2020-10-31 160300 10100 14220 31070 122400 13890 33670 91020 34580 7310 27350 19560 10190 229900 2967 1916 5924 17760 2262 4585 17000 7821 232 1720 623 9713 4031 1047 1476 5691 9943 4112 7590 2412 2704 3333 335 4326 508 632 16350 990 1778 33470 5346 1322 681 8785 3912 414 3221 18400 3682 2345 1912 444

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-25 to 2020-10-31

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSI
2020-10-24 44745 163198 965 10737 1084 343 2077 10035 700 34752 34236 564 429 1390 1882 37210 7019 4351 2297 6318 235
2020-10-25 44900 164100 975 10790 1099 346 2187 10060 703 34850 34350 575 441 1433 1886 37330 7053 4504 2316 6390 245
2020-10-26 45040 165000 983 10830 1115 349 2313 10100 705 34980 34480 586 451 1471 1889 37410 7078 4631 2331 6454 251
2020-10-27 45200 165900 992 10870 1128 355 2446 10140 707 35110 34620 596 460 1515 1892 37500 7123 4760 2346 6519 257
2020-10-28 45360 166800 1000 10910 1144 359 2588 10170 709 35230 34740 604 470 1562 1895 37590 7171 4891 2361 6586 263
2020-10-29 45520 167700 1009 10950 1157 363 2743 10200 711 35350 34840 617 481 1609 1898 37670 7204 5027 2376 6659 268
2020-10-30 45680 168600 1016 10990 1167 367 2897 10230 713 35480 34950 628 489 1656 1901 37750 7233 5168 2391 6719 275
2020-10-31 45850 169500 1025 11020 1177 369 3063 10260 715 35580 35060 639 498 1700 1904 37830 7276 5313 2406 6781 281

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-25 to 2020-10-31

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-10-24 156903 9969 13892 30000 118534 13205 32320 88743 34033 6934 25647 18944 9727 224889 2866 1797 5868 17343 2218 4577 16417 7620 211 1634 572 9481 3882 956 1404 5614 9832 4073 7439 2328 2613 3255 294 4144 448 595 16281 965 1739 33398 5206 1245 653 8636 3793 366 3056 17915 3574 2293 1770 424
2020-10-25 157100 9990 13940 30170 119100 13300 32570 88920 34090 6986 25890 19010 9800 225300 2872 1813 5871 17360 2224 4580 16480 7649 214 1644 577 9513 3903 961 1414 5630 9848 4080 7463 2342 2648 3258 300 4159 454 600 16290 970 1741 33410 5214 1254 656 8659 3809 374 3084 17950 3595 2293 1786 426
2020-10-26 157500 10010 13980 30310 119700 13400 32780 89180 34150 7029 26090 19100 9860 225600 2881 1830 5876 17360 2229 4583 16530 7669 215 1658 582 9536 3922 973 1424 5643 9865 4086 7483 2347 2671 3259 304 4168 461 605 16290 973 1743 33420 5226 1261 660 8675 3820 378 3103 17970 3609 2303 1805 429
2020-10-27 158000 10030 14020 30470 120300 13500 32970 89680 34220 7072 26350 19190 9930 226200 2895 1848 5882 17430 2234 4587 16610 7689 218 1677 586 9572 3964 991 1437 5652 9881 4092 7503 2353 2695 3282 311 4209 468 611 16300 977 1753 33430 5239 1274 666 8702 3843 384 3125 18040 3623 2322 1833 432
2020-10-28 158500 10050 14050 30640 120900 13610 33150 90070 34280 7120 26610 19280 9990 226900 2915 1866 5892 17520 2242 4590 16700 7713 225 1691 594 9624 3979 1008 1450 5662 9898 4097 7524 2382 2721 3301 321 4242 478 617 16310 981 1760 33440 5269 1287 668 8728 3859 389 3146 18130 3637 2325 1865 435
2020-10-29 159000 10080 14100 30770 121500 13700 33300 90340 34360 7166 26870 19370 10060 227400 2935 1884 5898 17600 2247 4594 16790 7738 227 1700 598 9659 4003 1027 1461 5672 9914 4103 7548 2396 2743 3311 327 4274 486 622 16310 984 1766 33450 5276 1296 671 8750 3882 398 3167 18170 3651 2328 1884 438
2020-10-30 159600 10100 14150 30940 122100 13800 33440 91130 34420 7219 27100 19470 10120 227900 2954 1903 5907 17660 2254 4597 16890 7778 229 1714 602 9692 4022 1046 1471 5688 9930 4108 7567 2409 2770 3319 332 4297 497 626 16320 988 1772 33450 5293 1305 677 8772 3893 404 3191 18270 3665 2333 1907 441
2020-10-31 160100 10120 14200 31110 122800 13890 33580 91450 34490 7271 27340 19560 10190 228300 2966 1921 5917 17700 2260 4601 16960 7814 232 1721 606 9722 4040 1053 1480 5694 9947 4114 7585 2418 2809 3331 339 4316 508 630 16320 991 1777 33460 5304 1313 680 8790 3908 411 3211 18350 3679 2333 1918 444

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths