COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-10-29


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-10-29

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)04-1006-19 --08-15 --10-20 --10-2208-1006-1904-2109-18 -- -- --07-2308-1509-26 --07-05 --09-01 -- --08-1406-16
Peak daily increment 964 805 9 5 37 1 914 30 61 4 127 20 7 4 3 7
Days since peak 202 132 75 9 7 80 132 191 41 98 75 33 116 58 76 135
Last total 45955 170523 1056 11308 1225 373 2862 10305 716 35639 354 35728 615 511 1634 1902 38122 7258 5149 2428 6764 5934 292 200 281 2200
Last daily increment 280 1668 29 138 28 9 187 46 1 173 0 235 12 18 56 6 217 56 300 33 83 7 14 16 1 42
Last week 1384 8154 102 650 148 33 891 297 19 887 1 1492 56 98 282 24 1063 294 977 152 519 1 78 66 2 133
Previous peak date --04-0604-0604-15 --04-11 --04-1504-0403-31 --04-08 -- --04-2304-2403-2904-0404-2404-1505-0204-12 -- --04-0704-06
Previous peak daily increment 3095 20 328 7 226 15 946 943 14 167 781 153 26 31 25 98 8 60
Low between peaks -892 2 -2 3 0 -1351 7 0 6 -6 3 -5 0 1

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-10-29

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date (mm-dd)09-0307-2110-0207-1708-2309-1209-22 --10-0507-2309-14 --07-2209-2408-0409-1609-1507-2108-0610-1307-1309-0906-2308-0708-2209-18 --09-0905-1208-1510-24 --08-0908-2004-2909-09 --10-0908-26 -- -- --05-2005-2906-2505-1308-1308-3108-29 -- --05-0507-28 -- --07-2710-0209-1508-06 --09-16
Peak daily increment 35 1065 73 785 318 1159 119 1677 2947 159 323 69 1078 99 124 78 138 25 9 1 46 175 66 5 19 112 12 14 36 106 56 38 30 31 40 25 1566 9 18 26 92 137 45 386 5 72 13 5
Days since peak 56 100 27 104 67 47 37 24 98 45 99 35 86 43 44 100 84 16 108 50 128 83 68 41 50 170 75 5 81 70 183 50 20 64 162 153 126 169 77 59 61 177 93 94 27 44 84 43
Last total 907 158969 10127 14118 30926 121090 13701 34113 90773 34315 7147 27111 19164 10099 228656 2914 1894 5917 17559 2268 4609 645 689 16648 7730 214 1705 615 9675 4024 1008 1461 5694 9944 4112 7570 2419 2691 3310 337 4283 499 632 482 16332 994 1765 33427 5275 1306 673 8743 3889 403 3221 18276 471 3636 2356 1948 445
Last daily increment 0 513 43 86 173 563 89 399 464 58 33 359 53 72 971 3 19 13 30 19 5 1 1 77 44 2 14 16 56 33 7 19 18 27 8 47 32 7 8 12 38 11 8 4 8 3 3 11 19 20 2 36 13 19 20 114 4 20 6 51 7
Last week 2 2498 187 274 1124 3134 624 2128 2461 331 232 1758 273 441 4677 55 112 53 254 57 32 3 11 308 151 6 76 53 257 166 58 65 80 121 48 169 105 178 72 55 169 59 46 11 59 34 31 30 91 72 24 135 112 47 189 503 13 97 63 203 21
Previous peak date -- --05-06 -- --06-16 --03-20 -- --07-12 -- --04-1504-13 -- -- -- --04-2404-2004-29 -- --04-07 --05-21 -- --05-02 --04-1404-1404-25 --04-1405-2804-30 -- -- -- -- -- --04-22 --04-1205-1804-2904-2107-29 --04-29 -- -- --04-1704-2204-0604-1104-23
Previous peak daily increment 168 1662 150 92 125 2223 72 105 11 44 15 99 10 64 459 137 23 17 317 10 3573 76 9 5 24 6 104 25 14 16
Low between peaks 4 388 20 16 532 2 3 1 12 5 12 -1 6 5 52 3 7 15 6 1 9 -17 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-30 to 2020-11-05

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSISKCH
2020-10-29 45955 170523 1056 11308 1225 373 2862 10305 35639 35728 615 511 1634 1902 38122 7258 5149 2428 6764 292 200 2200
2020-10-30 46350 172300 1079 11420 1246 378 3137 10360 35770 36320 626 525 1702 1906 38300 7303 5354 2454 6839 306 223 2226
2020-10-31 46600 173400 1099 11530 1269 384 3370 10410 35770 36520 637 547 1770 1909 38470 7361 5547 2479 6912 319 247 2250
2020-11-01 46820 174400 1120 11640 1292 389 3613 10450 35770 36710 648 562 1840 1913 38630 7396 5745 2504 6986 333 273 2272
2020-11-02 47010 175700 1140 11740 1315 394 3893 10500 36010 37160 660 583 1911 1916 38790 7430 5943 2529 7059 346 300 2293
2020-11-03 47270 177100 1160 11840 1337 400 4268 10560 36230 37500 671 600 1984 1919 38940 7498 6148 2554 7132 360 329 2314
2020-11-04 47490 178300 1180 11950 1361 405 4580 10610 36370 37670 682 625 2060 1923 39100 7563 6361 2579 7206 374 360 2334
2020-11-05 47720 179800 1200 12050 1384 410 4834 10650 36510 37830 694 644 2140 1926 39260 7607 6582 2604 7281 388 394 2354

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-30 to 2020-11-05

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-10-29 158969 10127 14118 30926 121090 13701 34113 90773 34315 7147 27111 19164 10099 228656 2914 1894 5917 17559 2268 4609 16648 7730 1705 615 9675 4024 1008 1461 5694 9944 4112 7570 2419 2691 3310 337 4283 499 632 16332 994 1765 33427 5275 1306 673 8743 3889 403 3221 18276 3636 2356 1948 445
2020-10-30 159700 10150 14170 31060 121600 13800 34460 91010 34390 7193 27450 19240 10170 229300 2948 1912 5922 17670 2277 4613 16810 7773 1720 627 9687 4030 1034 1468 5706 9960 4119 7593 2422 2713 3320 346 4302 514 632 16350 999 1772 33430 5284 1327 683 8764 3900 409 3250 18330 3651 2358 2009 448
2020-10-31 160200 10170 14220 31220 122200 13900 34740 91360 34460 7239 27780 19310 10240 230200 2953 1930 5930 17710 2286 4617 16860 7811 1735 636 9739 4058 1038 1478 5706 9980 4125 7615 2436 2797 3334 355 4329 527 639 16360 1003 1775 33440 5303 1342 687 8789 3920 416 3278 18430 3666 2358 2044 451
2020-11-01 160300 10200 14270 31380 122700 13990 34960 91500 34530 7285 28020 19380 10310 230500 2953 1947 5934 17720 2294 4621 16890 7817 1750 645 9760 4071 1038 1483 5724 10000 4132 7637 2455 2800 3334 365 4340 541 640 16360 1007 1778 33450 5305 1351 688 8802 3930 422 3308 18470 3681 2358 2059 454
2020-11-02 160600 10220 14320 31540 123200 14090 35200 91700 34600 7330 28210 19450 10370 230900 2953 1964 5936 17730 2302 4625 16910 7834 1765 653 9775 4083 1049 1487 5739 10020 4138 7658 2459 2802 3338 375 4351 554 645 16370 1012 1779 33450 5312 1360 692 8813 3945 428 3337 18490 3696 2378 2089 456
2020-11-03 161100 10240 14350 31700 123800 14180 35410 92360 34670 7375 28550 19520 10440 231800 2971 1982 5948 17800 2310 4629 16980 7850 1780 661 9816 4126 1063 1502 5752 10030 4144 7680 2469 2827 3358 385 4391 568 656 16380 1016 1787 33460 5326 1383 699 8837 3965 435 3367 18570 3710 2395 2136 459
2020-11-04 161600 10260 14360 31860 124300 14280 35650 92900 34740 7420 28890 19590 10510 232800 2993 1999 5960 17870 2318 4632 17030 7874 1795 669 9870 4152 1081 1517 5761 10050 4151 7701 2492 2862 3378 396 4428 581 663 16390 1020 1796 33470 5354 1400 704 8862 3992 441 3396 18660 3725 2408 2182 462
2020-11-05 162100 10280 14430 32020 124800 14380 35860 93280 34810 7466 29240 19670 10570 233700 3007 2016 5970 17920 2325 4636 17110 7910 1811 677 9916 4182 1094 1533 5775 10070 4157 7722 2516 2862 3386 406 4463 595 669 16410 1024 1800 33470 5370 1412 706 8891 4009 448 3427 18740 3739 2413 2215 465

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-30 to 2020-11-05

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSISKCH
2020-10-29 45955 170523 1056 11308 1225 373 2862 10305 35639 35728 615 511 1634 1902 38122 7258 5149 2428 6764 292 200 2200
2020-10-30 46250 172100 1076 11420 1249 379 3048 10380 35800 36040 625 525 1689 1907 38300 7304 5366 2454 6851 305 218 2226
2020-10-31 46460 173200 1090 11500 1267 383 3231 10420 35910 36270 634 544 1740 1911 38440 7357 5529 2477 6925 317 240 2238
2020-11-01 46660 174300 1105 11580 1285 387 3424 10460 36010 36490 645 557 1789 1915 38580 7384 5696 2500 6994 328 254 2250
2020-11-02 46850 175600 1119 11660 1312 393 3638 10510 36150 36750 654 575 1842 1919 38720 7410 5866 2523 7064 340 269 2263
2020-11-03 47070 176800 1132 11740 1333 399 3879 10560 36290 37000 663 592 1905 1923 38860 7468 6041 2546 7142 352 283 2277
2020-11-04 47280 178000 1147 11810 1360 403 4130 10610 36420 37220 674 608 1967 1927 39010 7530 6224 2570 7218 365 298 2288
2020-11-05 47500 179300 1162 11890 1381 409 4362 10660 36540 37440 688 624 2033 1931 39150 7572 6411 2593 7296 378 325 2299

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-30 to 2020-11-05

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-10-29 158969 10127 14118 30926 121090 13701 34113 90773 34315 7147 27111 19164 10099 228656 2914 1894 5917 17559 2268 4609 16648 7730 1705 615 9675 4024 1008 1461 5694 9944 4112 7570 2419 2691 3310 337 4283 499 632 16332 994 1765 33427 5275 1306 673 8743 3889 403 3221 18276 3636 2356 1948 445
2020-10-30 159400 10160 14170 31120 121600 13800 34430 91630 34370 7187 27430 19200 10170 229500 2927 1912 5927 17600 2280 4614 16700 7769 1722 626 9716 4055 1024 1475 5712 9970 4119 7600 2438 2720 3317 346 4314 511 639 16340 999 1766 33440 5295 1321 683 8772 3908 412 3252 18390 3653 2364 1999 450
2020-10-31 159900 10180 14220 31300 122100 13900 34650 92010 34430 7229 27720 19250 10240 230100 2935 1929 5934 17640 2287 4618 16760 7801 1734 633 9762 4081 1031 1486 5718 9980 4126 7624 2450 2775 3331 356 4338 520 645 16350 1004 1770 33440 5311 1332 687 8795 3926 420 3281 18490 3669 2364 2023 452
2020-11-01 160100 10200 14260 31410 122600 14000 34840 92220 34490 7272 27990 19300 10310 230300 2940 1946 5940 17650 2293 4623 16790 7813 1745 637 9787 4095 1036 1494 5734 10000 4132 7647 2467 2790 3333 362 4351 527 650 16350 1008 1773 33450 5314 1340 688 8811 3940 426 3309 18530 3684 2364 2033 455
2020-11-02 160400 10230 14310 31620 123200 14100 35050 92440 34540 7314 28260 19350 10380 230600 2945 1963 5944 17660 2298 4627 16810 7831 1760 643 9809 4110 1047 1503 5747 10020 4138 7670 2472 2806 3337 369 4365 534 656 16350 1013 1775 33460 5318 1348 690 8827 3957 432 3337 18550 3700 2378 2051 458
2020-11-03 160900 10250 14350 31790 123700 14190 35240 93000 34600 7357 28550 19430 10450 231100 2960 1981 5954 17720 2305 4631 16890 7851 1774 648 9846 4148 1062 1516 5759 10040 4144 7694 2480 2831 3355 375 4398 544 663 16360 1018 1783 33460 5325 1361 697 8849 3976 437 3367 18620 3715 2393 2089 461
2020-11-04 161400 10270 14370 31950 124200 14300 35450 93370 34660 7400 28840 19510 10520 231700 2977 1998 5963 17800 2313 4635 16970 7877 1788 654 9894 4168 1078 1528 5770 10060 4151 7717 2503 2863 3374 394 4428 555 669 16370 1022 1791 33470 5347 1375 700 8873 3994 443 3399 18700 3730 2400 2128 465
2020-11-05 161800 10290 14430 32100 124700 14400 35630 93490 34730 7444 29140 19580 10600 232200 2994 2016 5970 17880 2320 4639 17060 7902 1801 660 9934 4198 1095 1542 5780 10070 4157 7741 2520 2877 3384 404 4460 563 675 16370 1027 1796 33480 5352 1386 702 8898 4019 452 3427 18740 3746 2403 2152 468

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths