COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-11-01


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-11-01

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)04-1006-19 --08-15 -- -- --10-2208-1006-1904-2109-18 -- -- --07-2308-1509-26 -- -- --09-01 --10-2308-1406-16
Peak daily increment 964 805 9 34 1 914 30 61 4 127 20 4 15 3 7
Days since peak 205 135 78 10 83 135 194 44 101 78 36 61 9 79 138
Last total 46717 175479 1130 11737 1298 391 3429 10541 723 35878 358 36725 635 562 1819 1915 38826 7434 5783 2544 7067 5938 363 219 282 2326
Last daily increment 162 1283 21 112 19 1 178 58 2 0 0 231 9 16 69 2 208 39 152 37 99 0 25 0 0 29
Last week 1719 10077 138 838 162 35 1064 450 15 847 4 1979 54 110 347 30 1347 362 1300 201 597 5 112 54 3 215
Previous peak date --04-0604-0704-15 --04-11 --04-1504-0403-31 --04-08 -- --04-2304-2403-2904-0404-2404-1405-0204-12 -- --04-0704-06
Previous peak daily increment 3095 22 328 7 226 15 946 943 14 167 781 153 26 29 25 98 8 60
Low between peaks -892 2 3 0 -1351 7 0 6 -6 -5 0 1

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-11-01

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date (mm-dd)09-0307-2110-0207-1708-2309-1209-22 --10-0507-2309-14 --07-2209-2408-0409-1609-1507-2108-0610-1307-1309-0906-2308-0708-2209-18 --09-0905-1208-15 -- --08-0908-2004-2909-0905-28 --08-26 -- -- --05-2005-2906-25 --08-1308-3108-29 -- --05-0507-28 -- --07-2710-0209-1508-06 --09-16
Peak daily increment 35 1065 74 785 318 1159 119 1702 2947 159 323 69 1078 99 124 78 138 24 9 1 46 175 66 5 19 112 12 36 106 56 38 23 31 40 25 1566 18 26 92 137 45 386 5 72 13 5
Days since peak 59 103 30 107 70 50 40 27 101 48 102 38 89 46 47 103 87 19 111 53 131 86 71 44 53 173 78 84 73 186 53 157 67 165 156 129 80 62 64 180 96 97 30 47 87 46
Last total 907 160074 10230 14247 31515 122607 13943 35298 91895 34476 7238 28026 19411 10326 230995 2973 1958 5978 17671 2288 4616 646 710 16789 7786 218 1733 630 9792 4124 1025 1489 5712 10006 4142 7616 2475 2825 3348 376 4383 531 654 483 16354 1026 1777 33514 5303 1345 691 8803 3936 437 3311 18502 483 3655 2363 2047 460
Last daily increment 0 190 43 40 201 496 74 434 142 65 17 239 135 74 447 6 33 0 12 3 0 0 2 28 2 0 17 1 81 28 0 4 7 22 11 0 18 1 14 1 5 7 10 0 4 8 4 21 2 8 2 3 1 12 0 37 8 1 0 16 1
Last week 2 2677 204 244 1167 3105 532 2345 2724 327 199 1934 403 452 5285 107 125 104 285 62 28 4 25 340 147 7 76 50 270 217 56 79 64 132 53 147 122 204 85 73 213 70 53 8 62 50 32 109 86 94 36 144 113 62 189 524 24 74 45 259 34
Previous peak date -- --05-06 -- --06-16 --03-20 -- --07-12 -- --04-1504-13 -- -- -- --04-2404-2004-29 -- --04-07 --05-22 -- --05-02 --04-1404-1404-25 --04-14 --05-05 -- -- -- -- -- --04-2205-1304-1205-1804-2904-16 -- --04-29 -- -- --04-1704-2204-0604-1004-23
Previous peak daily increment 168 1662 150 92 125 2223 72 105 11 44 14 99 10 64 459 137 18 317 9 10 3573 76 7 24 6 104 25 12 16
Low between peaks 4 388 20 16 532 2 3 1 12 5 12 -1 6 52 3 7 15 6 1 9 -17 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-02 to 2020-11-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSISKCH
2020-11-01 46717 175479 1130 11737 1298 391 3429 10541 35878 36725 635 562 1819 1915 38826 7434 5783 2544 7067 363 219 2326
2020-11-02 46980 177100 1149 11890 1330 400 3558 10640 36000 37090 644 591 1889 1919 39050 7434 6001 2580 7159 386 219 2335
2020-11-03 47240 178600 1168 12030 1360 408 3778 10710 36130 37440 653 613 1958 1923 39270 7466 6229 2615 7271 409 222 2345
2020-11-04 47460 180200 1188 12160 1401 416 3953 10790 36250 37790 661 639 2028 1927 39490 7495 6473 2650 7385 435 224 2353
2020-11-05 47680 181700 1208 12300 1431 424 4177 10840 36370 38140 670 661 2099 1931 39700 7512 6719 2684 7474 461 229 2361
2020-11-06 47920 183300 1228 12430 1461 431 4418 10900 36490 38490 678 682 2173 1934 39910 7553 6975 2719 7578 489 240 2370
2020-11-07 48150 184900 1249 12570 1487 439 4627 10960 36600 38840 687 703 2250 1938 40120 7572 7242 2755 7675 519 244 2378
2020-11-08 48330 186400 1270 12700 1498 446 4840 11010 36720 39190 695 721 2329 1941 40330 7608 7518 2791 7753 550 246 2386

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-02 to 2020-11-08

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-11-01 160074 10230 14247 31515 122607 13943 35298 91895 34476 7238 28026 19411 10326 230995 2973 1958 5978 17671 2288 4616 710 16789 7786 1733 630 9792 4124 1025 1489 5712 10006 4142 7616 2475 2825 3348 376 4383 531 654 16354 1026 1777 33514 5303 1345 691 8803 3936 437 3311 18502 483 3655 2363 2047 460
2020-11-02 160500 10260 14310 31690 123100 14040 35670 91910 34550 7279 28340 19480 10400 231300 2973 1977 5978 17730 2288 4620 713 16900 7821 1746 635 9790 4124 1046 1492 5734 10030 4150 7640 2475 2857 3348 392 4400 531 654 16350 1035 1781 33510 5309 1345 691 8818 3951 441 3381 18510 486 3668 2377 2047 464
2020-11-03 161000 10280 14340 31850 123600 14130 35990 92460 34620 7321 28660 19550 10470 232200 2992 1995 5987 17790 2296 4624 716 16950 7834 1767 640 9840 4174 1060 1510 5747 10040 4157 7663 2489 2884 3368 408 4419 543 667 16370 1044 1789 33520 5323 1366 699 8843 3973 444 3433 18580 488 3682 2394 2082 467
2020-11-04 161500 10310 14350 32020 124200 14220 36310 92920 34680 7362 28980 19620 10540 233200 3013 2013 5996 17860 2307 4627 719 17000 7858 1779 645 9890 4201 1077 1524 5756 10060 4164 7685 2512 2915 3388 423 4439 555 674 16380 1052 1797 33530 5343 1381 704 8868 3999 455 3475 18680 491 3696 2406 2108 471
2020-11-05 162000 10330 14420 32190 124700 14310 36580 93230 34750 7404 29300 19690 10600 234100 3025 2030 6001 17910 2318 4631 721 17080 7891 1790 651 9940 4231 1088 1541 5770 10080 4171 7706 2537 2944 3397 439 4458 564 681 16390 1060 1801 33540 5353 1396 706 8897 4018 477 3510 18760 494 3710 2411 2119 474
2020-11-06 162600 10360 14470 32350 125200 14410 36840 93710 34810 7447 29620 19750 10670 234900 3041 2047 6009 17960 2329 4635 724 17140 7925 1802 656 9970 4253 1101 1552 5783 10100 4177 7727 2553 2974 3409 455 4478 576 687 16400 1068 1807 33550 5362 1411 711 8924 4027 490 3584 18850 496 3724 2417 2130 477
2020-11-07 162900 10380 14530 32520 125700 14500 37070 94140 34880 7489 29950 19820 10740 235700 3065 2064 6029 17990 2335 4639 727 17180 7950 1805 661 9990 4291 1104 1562 5783 10120 4184 7748 2570 3004 3417 471 4498 587 691 16410 1076 1807 33560 5371 1421 721 8947 4057 504 3609 18940 499 3738 2417 2155 480
2020-11-08 163000 10410 14570 32680 126200 14590 37280 94340 34940 7532 30280 19880 10810 236100 3072 2082 6030 18000 2338 4642 729 17210 7955 1817 667 10040 4309 1104 1565 5792 10130 4191 7769 2587 3035 3425 488 4518 594 696 16420 1084 1810 33570 5377 1428 722 8953 4060 512 3616 18970 502 3753 2417 2173 484

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-02 to 2020-11-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSISKCH
2020-11-01 46717 175479 1130 11737 1298 391 3429 10541 35878 36725 635 562 1819 1915 38826 7434 5783 2544 7067 363 219 2326
2020-11-02 46930 177100 1152 11870 1331 398 3624 10610 36030 37040 643 581 1879 1919 39050 7469 5991 2580 7156 384 226 2354
2020-11-03 47180 178700 1170 11990 1357 404 3862 10670 36200 37360 652 601 1946 1923 39240 7531 6199 2610 7247 403 241 2378
2020-11-04 47410 180100 1191 12100 1387 409 4092 10730 36340 37640 661 624 2008 1927 39420 7589 6415 2639 7339 421 257 2398
2020-11-05 47650 181600 1217 12210 1414 416 4331 10780 36470 37930 671 645 2073 1931 39610 7635 6638 2669 7422 440 273 2421
2020-11-06 47900 183200 1237 12310 1439 422 4607 10840 36630 38260 681 661 2144 1935 39780 7692 6869 2700 7508 459 294 2446
2020-11-07 48160 184500 1256 12400 1461 427 4884 10900 36710 38560 690 683 2212 1940 39960 7740 7109 2731 7594 483 314 2464
2020-11-08 48400 185900 1273 12500 1482 432 5173 10950 36790 38850 699 702 2280 1944 40140 7776 7359 2760 7667 504 335 2485

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-02 to 2020-11-08

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-11-01 160074 10230 14247 31515 122607 13943 35298 91895 34476 7238 28026 19411 10326 230995 2973 1958 5978 17671 2288 4616 710 16789 7786 1733 630 9792 4124 1025 1489 5712 10006 4142 7616 2475 2825 3348 376 4383 531 654 16354 1026 1777 33514 5303 1345 691 8803 3936 437 3311 18502 483 3655 2363 2047 460
2020-11-02 160400 10260 14300 31700 123100 14030 35640 92130 34530 7270 28310 19480 10400 231400 2981 1980 5990 17690 2293 4618 714 16810 7800 1750 634 9820 4145 1034 1497 5724 10030 4151 7633 2482 2852 3356 384 4409 539 661 16360 1035 1778 33530 5311 1352 695 8819 3952 446 3339 18540 486 3664 2379 2069 464
2020-11-03 160800 10290 14330 31890 123600 14130 35880 92720 34580 7309 28620 19530 10470 232100 2995 1997 6002 17750 2302 4622 717 16860 7818 1769 640 9860 4192 1048 1512 5736 10050 4158 7655 2495 2879 3374 392 4442 550 670 16360 1042 1785 33540 5327 1371 702 8843 3973 452 3374 18620 488 3679 2394 2127 468
2020-11-04 161300 10320 14360 32060 124100 14230 36140 93200 34630 7347 28930 19580 10540 232800 3011 2014 6014 17820 2311 4626 719 16920 7842 1781 647 9910 4219 1063 1525 5747 10060 4165 7677 2520 2909 3393 413 4473 560 677 16370 1048 1793 33550 5349 1386 707 8868 3997 460 3407 18710 491 3693 2404 2172 472
2020-11-05 161700 10340 14410 32230 124600 14320 36370 93510 34690 7386 29240 19630 10610 233400 3022 2031 6025 17870 2321 4630 722 16990 7871 1792 654 9960 4252 1076 1540 5759 10080 4172 7698 2544 2931 3402 424 4505 570 684 16380 1055 1796 33560 5359 1402 710 8895 4017 471 3440 18790 494 3708 2407 2207 476
2020-11-06 162200 10370 14460 32400 125200 14420 36580 94130 34730 7425 29550 19680 10690 234000 3037 2048 6035 17930 2330 4634 726 17060 7902 1807 661 9990 4276 1092 1553 5772 10100 4179 7720 2561 2959 3414 442 4536 580 691 16380 1062 1801 33570 5368 1416 715 8921 4030 480 3478 18880 497 3723 2411 2239 479
2020-11-07 162600 10390 14510 32580 125700 14520 36770 94490 34790 7464 29870 19730 10760 234500 3052 2065 6047 17970 2336 4638 728 17120 7930 1815 667 10020 4309 1101 1564 5778 10120 4186 7742 2576 3002 3424 456 4568 590 697 16390 1068 1804 33580 5385 1427 721 8943 4055 489 3510 18950 499 3737 2411 2271 483
2020-11-08 162900 10420 14550 32740 126200 14610 36950 94620 34840 7504 30180 19780 10830 234700 3058 2083 6053 17990 2341 4642 730 17160 7946 1823 673 10060 4326 1107 1572 5791 10140 4193 7764 2595 3026 3428 463 4598 598 703 16390 1075 1807 33590 5389 1434 724 8958 4067 497 3541 18990 501 3752 2411 2290 486

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths