COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-01-11


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-01-11

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd) --11-2612-1411-0412-022021-01-0411-042021-01-07 --11-0412-1411-1611-2912-1712-1311-1812-0111-0411-27 --11-2712-1112-04 --12-0212-09
Peak daily increment 3522 107 208 142 204 207 775 931 6 604 101 75 164 5 723 79 492 164 66 52 5 97
Days since peak 46 28 68 40 7 68 4 68 28 56 43 25 29 54 41 68 45 45 31 38 40 33
Last total 81960 402407 6747 20122 8232 3054 13272 41799 1597 52275 597 67690 5302 4403 10725 2352 79203 12411 31264 7925 16725 9433 3022 3007 478 8364
Last daily increment 529 3048 24 44 106 47 157 863 27 401 11 310 39 35 77 8 448 50 75 122 71 0 24 89 6 97
Last week 5655 18847 290 295 330 286 1015 5042 177 845 21 1775 251 224 645 70 2874 585 1762 639 547 448 154 404 26 346
Previous peak date04-0904-0604-0604-1506-0504-1104-0804-1504-0403-3104-2104-07 -- --04-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-0805-0304-12 -- --04-0704-06
Previous peak daily increment 957 3074 20 322 5 7 10 226 15 945 30 933 13 167 781 153 23 31 25 98 8 60
Low between peaks -796 0 -105 2 -2 0 3 -1283 0 7 0 0 6 -6 6 10 -5 0 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-01-11

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-0307-2112-2707-17 --09-12 --11-1810-0507-2309-1412-172021-01-0612-23 --12-1212-2212-14 -- --12-0907-1312-3110-3012-1011-032021-01-0612-1112-1111-0612-1512-16 --11-1608-2012-12 --12-0912-1112-12 --11-21 --12-092021-01-0705-2906-2512-11 --11-17 -- --12-11 -- --12-03 --12-2312-1109-1512-2912-09 --12-09
Peak daily increment 35 1066 128 787 1159 473 1833 2944 159 547 538 251 6 41 42 154 9 4 8 101 358 6 312 19 244 79 50 147 106 42 128 66 60 12 27 59 26 1568 31 58 22 23 188 10 72 87 62 7
Days since peak 130 174 15 178 121 54 98 172 119 25 5 19 30 20 28 33 182 11 73 32 69 5 31 31 66 27 26 56 144 30 33 31 30 51 33 4 227 200 31 55 31 39 19 31 118 13 33 33
Last total 909 203580 17096 17162 46451 151327 24343 56262 134368 38280 9416 61389 33579 22981 376060 224 5347 4081 10147 30260 5213 6415 821 986 23071 11105 306 4139 1544 19363 8643 2989 2922 7918 13141 6250 437 14043 5711 5768 5186 1057 7578 1352 1766 869 19854 2764 3500 39562 9702 2775 1613 17802 5826 1585 7681 30585 1000 5393 3695 5575 1594 489
Last daily increment 0 480 136 66 337 167 214 91 662 231 11 426 416 174 1731 0 13 38 6 256 5 92 4 14 159 17 0 1 10 70 30 1 21 45 0 22 5 46 4 4 19 1 11 0 12 0 0 15 33 188 75 14 9 85 15 0 78 106 3 10 1 5 12 0
Last week 0 5848 843 374 2023 1213 1234 514 5546 450 95 2683 3055 1102 18791 6 461 245 830 2860 222 223 20 39 883 386 19 140 73 801 351 4 150 283 416 243 68 578 250 179 211 52 582 23 74 78 472 170 265 1078 455 204 63 1266 328 72 581 1777 57 202 158 209 152 25
Previous peak date -- --05-06 --08-0306-16 --03-21 -- --07-12 --07-2204-1504-13 --09-1609-1507-2208-0704-2404-2004-2906-2308-0708-2210-2105-2109-0905-1205-02 --04-1404-1404-2504-29 --04-1405-2904-3008-2609-19 -- --05-20 --04-2205-1308-1805-1804-2904-16 --05-0507-2907-29 --07-27 --04-2204-01 -- --09-02
Previous peak daily increment 168 328 1662 144 90 323 120 2219 100 124 78 137 72 106 11 47 175 66 6 14 20 112 98 10 64 459 56 137 23 17 31 5 41 321 9 18 3562 76 7 137 44 2 459 105 59 27
Low between peaks 4 388 54 20 58 16 9 10 2 3 0 -3 45 25 0 3 3 15 5 10 -2 5 6 5 5 2 1 51 3 6 1 70 9 5 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-12 to 2021-01-18

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-01-11 81960 402407 6747 20122 8232 3054 13272 41799 1597 52275 597 67690 5302 4403 10725 2352 79203 12411 31264 7925 16725 9433 3022 3007 478 8364
2021-01-12 81960 405700 6775 20180 8353 3121 13430 42140 1625 52440 606 68250 5343 4431 10830 2361 79730 12490 31470 8051 16890 9525 3054 3079 478 8509
2021-01-13 82430 409200 6805 20230 8404 3182 13580 43180 1652 52490 608 68410 5385 4459 10930 2369 80230 12640 31990 8173 16990 9591 3085 3149 489 8592
2021-01-14 82970 412200 6834 20290 8440 3242 13730 44100 1679 52680 614 68410 5425 4487 11040 2377 80650 12730 32260 8297 17090 9766 3116 3219 490 8642
2021-01-15 83480 415400 6864 20340 8484 3299 13880 44840 1706 52790 615 68590 5466 4515 11140 2385 81160 12810 32540 8419 17170 9860 3146 3287 493 8688
2021-01-16 83870 417600 6894 20390 8512 3357 14030 45300 1734 52790 615 68720 5507 4543 11250 2392 81550 12900 32840 8542 17250 9860 3176 3356 493 8713
2021-01-17 83950 419100 6924 20450 8527 3414 14190 45640 1761 52790 615 68780 5548 4572 11350 2400 81810 12950 32940 8668 17290 9860 3207 3425 493 8716
2021-01-18 84510 422100 6954 20500 8633 3471 14340 46510 1788 53140 623 69100 5589 4600 11460 2407 82190 12990 32990 8796 17360 9860 3238 3495 501 8831

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-12 to 2021-01-18

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-11 203580 17096 17162 46451 151327 24343 56262 134368 38280 9416 61389 33579 22981 376060 5347 4081 10147 30260 5213 6415 821 986 23071 11105 4139 1544 19363 8643 2922 7918 13141 6250 437 14043 5711 5768 5186 1057 7578 1352 1766 869 19854 2764 3500 39562 9702 2775 1613 17802 5826 1585 7681 30585 1000 5393 3695 5575 1594 489
2021-01-12 203800 17230 17160 46630 151500 24550 56330 134600 38280 9437 61760 33990 23160 377600 5347 4118 10180 30260 5258 6434 825 990 23070 11120 4166 1555 19510 8784 2946 7935 13210 6285 441 14180 5747 5903 5243 1071 7578 1365 1769 871 19940 2788 3500 39750 9790 2776 1632 17920 5826 1585 7760 30840 1000 5436 3712 5647 1607 507
2021-01-13 205000 17350 17190 46930 151800 24750 56390 135700 38340 9458 62060 34370 23340 381300 5444 4154 10300 30750 5309 6470 828 994 23210 11200 4193 1567 19680 8861 2976 7983 13280 6336 443 14230 5807 5941 5280 1082 7677 1368 1775 891 20080 2829 3556 39920 9900 2833 1641 18250 5903 1593 7838 31230 1012 5478 3760 5700 1642 507
2021-01-14 206300 17470 17280 47250 152000 24930 56460 136600 38390 9479 62400 34760 23520 385100 5523 4189 10540 31320 5360 6517 832 999 23360 11270 4218 1595 19850 8935 3000 8027 13340 6381 455 14360 5853 5985 5291 1099 7778 1375 1790 903 20180 2865 3601 40080 9990 2872 1648 18500 5965 1617 7915 31670 1026 5521 3786 5739 1676 530
2021-01-15 207000 17600 17340 47530 152200 25110 56520 137500 38450 9501 62720 35140 23690 387900 5594 4224 10700 31790 5392 6540 835 1004 23470 11320 4243 1597 19970 8997 3008 8089 13400 6429 458 14380 5879 6000 5350 1104 7848 1385 1791 913 20260 2893 3640 40230 10040 2889 1651 18670 5983 1624 7991 32070 1037 5554 3814 5768 1705 530
2021-01-16 207800 17720 17390 47810 152400 25280 56580 138200 38500 9523 63060 35520 23870 390500 5655 4259 10760 32190 5431 6559 839 1009 23610 11410 4268 1602 20080 9052 3044 8091 13450 6458 463 14600 5921 6028 5381 1109 7947 1385 1791 925 20320 2913 3675 40390 10080 2920 1672 18830 6048 1636 8067 32300 1044 5603 3814 5796 1717 530
2021-01-17 208100 17840 17440 48060 152600 25460 56640 138700 38560 9545 63360 35900 24040 392000 5681 4294 10820 32460 5443 6562 842 1014 23710 11410 4293 1605 20160 9075 3067 8127 13510 6479 463 14600 5959 6028 5404 1111 8048 1385 1797 932 20320 2927 3696 40540 10110 2941 1673 18900 6106 1647 8143 32490 1045 5603 3814 5796 1725 530
2021-01-18 208600 17970 17490 48300 152800 25630 56710 139200 38610 9567 63760 36290 24220 393600 5695 4329 10830 32670 5450 6652 845 1019 23840 11420 4317 1618 20240 9108 3085 8169 13570 6500 467 14660 5963 6028 5423 1113 8062 1385 1806 932 20320 2942 3724 40690 10180 2950 1682 18990 6113 1648 8220 32540 1048 5612 3814 5801 1738 531

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-12 to 2021-01-18

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-01-11 81960 402407 6747 20122 8232 3054 13272 41799 1597 52275 597 67690 5302 4403 10725 2352 79203 12411 31264 7925 16725 9433 3022 3007 478 8364
2021-01-12 82610 406400 6789 20170 8296 3091 13440 42770 1625 52530 602 68190 5339 4436 10820 2361 79790 12560 31530 8034 16820 9571 3048 3088 480 8449
2021-01-13 83440 409800 6833 20220 8352 3135 13600 43790 1655 52620 605 68480 5377 4474 10910 2370 80280 12700 31920 8134 16910 9637 3076 3168 489 8529
2021-01-14 84270 412800 6876 20250 8398 3177 13770 44720 1686 52770 610 68690 5416 4512 11010 2379 80710 12790 32190 8235 17000 9770 3103 3250 490 8585
2021-01-15 85120 415900 6918 20290 8447 3224 13930 45500 1716 52880 612 69010 5454 4548 11110 2389 81200 12880 32470 8337 17080 9859 3131 3333 492 8636
2021-01-16 85850 418300 6959 20330 8494 3293 14070 45990 1748 52950 614 69300 5493 4586 11210 2398 81610 12950 32750 8440 17160 9887 3158 3419 492 8672
2021-01-17 86540 420400 7001 20360 8540 3327 14220 46270 1780 53010 616 69530 5532 4621 11310 2407 81910 13000 32930 8542 17230 9914 3187 3507 493 8703
2021-01-18 87300 423100 7039 20400 8629 3473 14380 47040 1812 53190 622 69860 5572 4660 11410 2416 82250 13050 33080 8646 17310 9942 3215 3596 496 8826

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-12 to 2021-01-18

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-11 203580 17096 17162 46451 151327 24343 56262 134368 38280 9416 61389 33579 22981 376060 5347 4081 10147 30260 5213 6415 821 986 23071 11105 4139 1544 19363 8643 2922 7918 13141 6250 437 14043 5711 5768 5186 1057 7578 1352 1766 869 19854 2764 3500 39562 9702 2775 1613 17802 5826 1585 7681 30585 1000 5393 3695 5575 1594 489
2021-01-12 204600 17240 17210 46730 151500 24540 56320 135400 38340 9432 61790 34050 23160 379300 5381 4117 10290 30780 5250 6443 824 993 23190 11180 4154 1555 19480 8783 2946 7961 13200 6284 444 14180 5730 5866 5268 1075 7642 1359 1771 880 19920 2784 3537 39720 9820 2797 1630 18020 5855 1591 7780 30850 1005 5434 3742 5661 1625 504
2021-01-13 205700 17370 17240 47010 151700 24700 56360 136500 38380 9452 62210 34560 23330 382500 5449 4152 10390 31270 5299 6476 828 997 23320 11240 4176 1568 19640 8863 2973 8003 13270 6330 452 14250 5796 5912 5306 1086 7743 1364 1780 900 20010 2819 3592 39860 9930 2848 1641 18300 5912 1600 7869 31170 1014 5473 3792 5721 1656 506
2021-01-14 206800 17520 17300 47330 151900 24880 56400 137400 38410 9471 62650 35010 23510 385600 5506 4187 10560 31840 5343 6515 831 1002 23450 11300 4204 1592 19800 8943 2997 8043 13330 6371 464 14360 5842 5959 5320 1102 7840 1370 1802 912 20060 2851 3636 40000 10020 2884 1652 18530 5962 1617 7958 31530 1025 5512 3819 5760 1684 526
2021-01-15 207600 17640 17350 47620 152200 25060 56450 138300 38440 9491 63070 35510 23680 388000 5562 4222 10700 32300 5379 6543 833 1006 23560 11350 4228 1596 19930 9010 3014 8093 13400 6416 474 14420 5869 5993 5379 1109 7913 1379 1805 923 20120 2879 3677 40140 10050 2905 1661 18720 5992 1626 8039 31970 1034 5546 3850 5785 1712 528
2021-01-16 208200 17750 17390 47900 152400 25230 56490 138900 38470 9510 63520 35960 23860 389700 5606 4258 10780 32680 5418 6570 836 1011 23680 11410 4248 1603 20050 9067 3045 8114 13470 6451 484 14580 5908 6030 5410 1115 8010 1382 1810 934 20150 2903 3709 40260 10080 2934 1674 18860 6048 1638 8107 32100 1041 5588 3855 5807 1729 532
2021-01-17 208600 17870 17430 48130 152600 25390 56530 139300 38500 9529 63980 36380 24040 390600 5631 4293 10850 32850 5442 6589 839 1015 23770 11430 4268 1607 20150 9104 3070 8142 13530 6483 490 14620 5952 6057 5432 1118 8065 1386 1815 941 20150 2926 3727 40390 10100 2954 1683 18970 6091 1648 8174 32180 1045 5607 3860 5808 1741 534
2021-01-18 209000 18020 17450 48330 152800 25570 56570 139800 38550 9549 64440 36770 24220 391400 5652 4329 10910 33050 5461 6647 842 1018 23860 11450 4290 1620 20260 9142 3092 8179 13600 6514 498 14690 5958 6082 5446 1122 8082 1390 1824 942 20160 2951 3746 40520 10160 2965 1692 19090 6117 1654 8254 32240 1050 5627 3867 5811 1755 540

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths