COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-03-23


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-03-23

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-042021-03-0912-28 --2021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-1711-2912-19 --2021-01-1912-012021-01-0811-272021-01-2811-272021-01-2012-042021-03-022021-01-1311-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 112 208 89 55 857 38 931 6 596 101 76 56 723 99 492 279 164 140 52 96 6 96
Days since peak 63 117 96 139 14 85 69 67 139 92 126 114 94 63 112 74 116 54 116 62 109 21 69 127
Last total 126284 595728 9121 22763 12307 5036 25055 75255 2403 73744 808 92367 7582 5808 18703 4610 105879 16339 49761 16794 22442 13315 3985 9190 649 10247
Last daily increment 112 2890 32 35 119 34 245 246 1 201 0 287 51 22 252 22 551 49 396 10 174 53 9 86 0 8
Last week 453 13521 165 163 592 160 1153 1212 7 951 4 1636 330 99 1282 44 2447 174 1729 72 655 87 37 452 1 84
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-07 -- --12-1004-2403-2904-0404-2504-1505-0304-21 -- --04-0704-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3090 20 322 142 207 226 15 945 30 933 171 167 781 153 23 31 25 101 8 60
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 32 3 0 -1283 0 7 0 6 -6 6 3 10 1 0 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-03-23

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-03 --2021-01-162021-03-132021-01-2209-122021-01-2711-182021-01-262021-02-202021-02-2012-172021-01-1412-262021-01-142021-01-202021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-0312-222021-01-212021-01-252021-01-2612-1112-1012-102021-02-042021-01-132021-03-1811-1608-2012-172021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-03-032021-01-142021-02-032021-02-0212-0912-0305-2906-2512-162021-01-132021-01-1612-162021-03-092021-02-132021-01-132021-02-0112-032021-02-052021-01-1912-102021-03-0312-2712-2912-082021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 147 82 389 1159 308 473 1259 206 142 552 564 253 3335 13 134 43 154 538 151 38 5 9 178 137 47 310 18 148 1176 199 372 147 106 43 7 126 107 54 46 27 96 27 25 26 1568 31 41 192 190 86 18 212 93 23 113 337 9 345 2 82 60 140 9
Days since peak 201 66 10 60 192 55 125 56 31 31 96 68 87 68 62 49 99 67 27 104 71 48 91 61 57 56 102 103 103 47 69 5 127 215 96 14 106 14 20 68 48 49 104 110 298 271 97 69 66 97 14 38 69 50 110 46 63 103 20 86 84 105 11 75
Last total 909 298676 22715 22384 62274 160441 39865 61951 199048 50474 12992 94231 52251 30316 543843 312 10450 5547 16798 57798 6074 7835 1051 1535 32820 18010 451 5683 1951 21116 12553 4806 5814 10037 16903 8147 731 16767 6789 8225 6977 1419 11854 1463 2130 1213 24242 3903 5188 49181 18381 4788 2367 24833 9030 1923 11514 47527 1429 10137 220 5182 7240 2613 695
Last daily increment 0 3251 20 25 126 275 154 74 809 276 20 419 55 138 894 2 14 3 53 176 4 4 1 4 41 31 0 8 5 13 16 0 15 7 21 27 2 20 7 52 21 5 18 2 2 1 61 11 14 18 42 0 2 35 3 0 33 81 12 10 1 3 0 1 2
Last week 0 13901 172 568 776 1225 950 459 3140 951 126 2416 617 620 5407 5 87 40 212 811 25 37 7 19 316 220 3 17 16 128 71 13 758 82 183 115 6 123 33 71 41 23 97 4 8 16 197 31 41 307 42 0 18 135 97 8 87 700 26 -17 3 30 39 48 2
Previous peak date --07-2304-2907-1708-2306-16 --03-2110-0507-2309-14 --07-2204-1504-1211-2409-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2908-0711-0310-2105-2109-0905-1205-02 --04-1404-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-1508-2609-19 -- --05-20 --04-2205-1308-1305-1804-2404-1712-1505-0507-2407-29 --07-27 --04-2204-0904-01 --2021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1103 186 787 318 1662 144 1833 2944 159 323 120 2239 4 100 124 78 138 72 106 11 13 175 358 6 14 20 112 98 10 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 31 5 41 321 9 18 3562 42 8 23 137 45 2 459 105 12 59 26 27
Low between peaks 3 37 125 388 54 343 48 21 58 16 529 1 9 10 6 42 2 1 0 0 45 32 0 3 3 15 5 4 10 -2 5 2 6 6 19 11 2 1 51 3 5 6 12 1 9 13 14 1 70 9 0 5 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-24 to 2021-03-30

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-03-23 126284 595728 9121 22763 12307 5036 25055 75255 73744 92367 7582 5808 18703 4610 105879 16339 49761 16794 22442 13315 3985 9190 10247
2021-03-24 126400 597400 9145 22790 12360 5060 25300 75460 73950 92550 7632 5820 18930 4637 106000 16390 49960 16810 22460 13360 3990 9270 10250
2021-03-25 126600 599600 9159 22830 12420 5076 25500 75820 74150 92940 7670 5821 19160 4651 106300 16420 50200 16850 22520 13370 3997 9393 10260
2021-03-26 126700 601700 9178 22860 12510 5096 25710 76080 74290 93050 7712 5827 19380 4664 106600 16470 50510 16880 22630 13400 4003 9494 10280
2021-03-27 126800 603400 9198 22880 12530 5117 25900 76170 74330 93290 7757 5836 19600 4674 106900 16480 50770 16900 22710 13400 4009 9584 10280
2021-03-28 126900 604500 9219 22910 12560 5139 26040 76250 74370 93370 7802 5845 19820 4680 107100 16500 50900 16920 22760 13400 4014 9671 10280
2021-03-29 126900 606900 9241 22940 12730 5161 26170 76460 74790 93870 7848 5856 20040 4680 107500 16520 50930 16940 22820 13400 4019 9752 10300
2021-03-30 127000 609500 9264 22970 12840 5184 26410 76690 74990 94160 7895 5868 20270 4702 107900 16560 51280 16960 22960 13450 4025 9832 10310

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-24 to 2021-03-30

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-03-23 298676 22715 22384 62274 160441 39865 61951 199048 50474 12992 94231 52251 30316 543843 10450 5547 16798 57798 6074 7835 32820 18010 21116 12553 5814 10037 16903 8147 16767 6789 8225 6977 1419 11854 24242 3903 5188 49181 18381 24833 9030 11514 47527 1429 5182 7240 2613
2021-03-24 301400 22760 22400 62380 160600 40010 62030 199800 50630 13020 94670 52280 30430 546600 10510 5558 16830 58320 6085 7854 32930 18110 21150 12590 5846 10080 16930 8147 16780 6800 8231 7003 1422 11910 24330 3921 5206 49210 18400 24910 9050 11530 47750 1430 5205 7263 2632
2021-03-25 304600 22800 22550 62440 160800 40200 62120 200600 50810 13070 95100 52330 30540 549000 10570 5587 16900 58700 6098 7871 33030 18220 21200 12620 5883 10100 16980 8163 16810 6809 8231 7022 1425 11950 24370 3933 5221 49250 18420 24970 9085 11540 47980 1437 5225 7277 2638
2021-03-26 307800 22830 22630 62520 161000 40360 62200 201200 50980 13110 95510 52410 30640 550700 10610 5608 16950 58970 6105 7879 33110 18270 21220 12650 5917 10120 17030 8189 16820 6818 8231 7037 1428 11990 24400 3942 5230 49280 18430 25010 9111 11560 48170 1443 5236 7289 2666
2021-03-27 310000 22850 22710 62600 161100 40510 62280 201800 51150 13150 95880 52450 30750 552100 10640 5625 16990 59150 6111 7880 33170 18330 21250 12670 5946 10120 17060 8201 16870 6820 8239 7051 1431 12010 24430 3949 5243 49310 18450 25030 9132 11570 48300 1445 5239 7306 2672
2021-03-28 311600 22870 22790 62690 161300 40660 62350 202100 51310 13180 96220 52450 30850 553200 10660 5641 17010 59270 6117 7882 33210 18340 21270 12690 5968 10130 17100 8204 16870 6830 8239 7055 1433 12010 24460 3951 5243 49340 18460 25040 9152 11580 48340 1446 5242 7310 2678
2021-03-29 313000 22900 22870 62790 161500 40800 62420 202200 51470 13210 96550 52520 30950 553800 10660 5655 17010 59340 6117 7891 33250 18360 21280 12700 6015 10160 17130 8204 16870 6830 8239 7055 1436 12020 24460 3954 5245 49370 18480 25050 9170 11590 48410 1446 5252 7310 2681
2021-03-30 316100 22920 22890 62890 161700 40940 62500 202900 51630 13250 96920 52590 31060 554900 10670 5668 17030 59530 6124 7897 33310 18400 21300 12720 6040 10170 17160 8229 16890 6836 8282 7076 1439 12040 24510 3965 5258 49400 18490 25100 9187 11600 48510 1454 5260 7313 2686

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-24 to 2021-03-30

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-03-23 126284 595728 9121 22763 12307 5036 25055 75255 73744 92367 7582 5808 18703 4610 105879 16339 49761 16794 22442 13315 3985 9190 10247
2021-03-24 126400 598000 9145 22790 12420 5062 25280 75390 73990 92580 7635 5821 18940 4629 106300 16380 50090 16810 22540 13370 3991 9272 10260
2021-03-25 126500 600300 9167 22800 12510 5085 25480 75670 74170 92870 7685 5832 19140 4641 106600 16410 50370 16820 22610 13380 3997 9361 10270
2021-03-26 126500 602400 9191 22820 12610 5110 25680 75890 74320 93030 7736 5843 19330 4652 107000 16440 50680 16830 22700 13400 4002 9444 10290
2021-03-27 126600 604200 9214 22830 12670 5133 25870 75970 74410 93250 7788 5854 19530 4661 107300 16460 50950 16840 22780 13400 4008 9524 10290
2021-03-28 126700 605800 9237 22850 12730 5151 26050 76060 74530 93410 7839 5866 19710 4671 107600 16480 51150 16850 22830 13410 4013 9604 10300
2021-03-29 126800 607900 9260 22870 12850 5178 26220 76290 74790 93730 7891 5877 19890 4678 107900 16500 51310 16860 22890 13410 4018 9683 10310
2021-03-30 126800 610300 9284 22880 12940 5200 26450 76510 74940 94000 7944 5888 20080 4693 108300 16540 51570 16870 22980 13440 4023 9762 10320

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-24 to 2021-03-30

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-03-23 298676 22715 22384 62274 160441 39865 61951 199048 50474 12992 94231 52251 30316 543843 10450 5547 16798 57798 6074 7835 32820 18010 21116 12553 5814 10037 16903 8147 16767 6789 8225 6977 1419 11854 24242 3903 5188 49181 18381 24833 9030 11514 47527 1429 5182 7240 2613
2021-03-24 301500 22750 22420 62390 160600 40020 62010 199800 50640 13020 94640 52310 30430 544700 10470 5557 16830 58020 6077 7842 32860 18070 21140 12570 5856 10060 16930 8163 16780 6794 8241 6987 1421 11900 24300 3910 5200 49210 18400 24860 9045 11530 47670 1433 5188 7252 2628
2021-03-25 304400 22780 22530 62480 160800 40190 62050 200400 50760 13060 95050 52380 30510 545700 10510 5575 16880 58290 6086 7853 32930 18140 21170 12590 5911 10080 16970 8179 16800 6805 8246 6999 1425 11920 24320 3916 5211 49270 18410 24900 9062 11540 47850 1437 5198 7260 2645
2021-03-26 307200 22810 22600 62570 160900 40350 62090 201000 50930 13100 95460 52480 30590 546400 10540 5592 16910 58520 6092 7860 32990 18180 21190 12610 5961 10100 17000 8200 16810 6814 8255 7011 1427 11950 24330 3920 5218 49320 18410 24930 9080 11550 48000 1441 5204 7267 2671
2021-03-27 309300 22840 22670 62660 161100 40470 62130 201500 51030 13130 95850 52550 30680 547000 10560 5605 16940 58730 6097 7864 33040 18230 21210 12620 6013 10100 17030 8213 16840 6819 8264 7025 1430 11970 24340 3924 5229 49370 18420 24950 9097 11550 48080 1443 5205 7278 2684
2021-03-28 310700 22850 22730 62750 161300 40570 62160 201800 51160 13160 96220 52600 30760 547500 10580 5622 16960 58890 6103 7868 33080 18250 21230 12640 6063 10120 17060 8222 16850 6837 8270 7032 1432 11980 24360 3927 5233 49420 18430 24970 9113 11560 48090 1445 5208 7280 2696
2021-03-29 312000 22880 22800 62830 161400 40710 62200 202000 51270 13190 96590 52680 30850 548000 10590 5633 16980 59050 6106 7879 33130 18290 21250 12650 6121 10140 17090 8229 16860 6843 8273 7037 1434 11990 24370 3932 5236 49470 18430 24990 9129 11560 48150 1447 5216 7281 2711
2021-03-30 315000 22900 22830 62910 161600 40860 62240 202500 51400 13220 96990 52770 30940 548700 10600 5645 17000 59260 6113 7888 33200 18330 21260 12670 6172 10160 17120 8242 16880 6849 8290 7061 1438 12010 24390 3939 5248 49520 18440 25040 9144 11570 48220 1451 5226 7285 2726

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths