COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-04-20


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-04-20

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-042021-04-0712-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-1711-2912-19 --2021-01-1912-012021-01-08 --2021-01-28 --2021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-01-1311-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 112 208 126 55 215 857 38 931 6 596 101 76 56 723 99 279 140 52 103 6 96
Days since peak 91 145 124 167 13 113 42 97 95 167 120 154 142 122 91 140 102 82 90 137 13 97 155
Last total 127307 665275 9959 23834 15518 5675 28640 80680 2463 77102 893 100895 9627 6643 25580 4847 117633 16965 62734 16951 26618 13825 4172 11244 709 10532
Last daily increment 33 2759 37 52 106 19 108 327 4 0 2 373 87 42 199 11 390 27 601 5 237 37 5 72 0 11
Last week 146 13861 180 231 647 116 516 1253 16 346 12 1762 492 244 1315 35 2076 117 2804 20 1013 105 37 446 3 44
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-07 -- --12-1104-2403-2904-0411-2504-1511-2804-21 -- --04-0704-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3090 20 322 142 207 226 15 945 30 933 164 167 781 153 514 31 164 101 8 60
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 35 97 3 0 -1283 0 7 0 6 -6 3 1 0 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-04-20

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-03 --2021-01-162021-03-29 -- --2021-01-2711-182021-01-262021-02-232021-04-0912-172021-01-14 --2021-01-152021-04-152021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-0312-222021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-0312-1012-1012-162021-03-242021-03-1811-1608-2012-172021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-03-032021-01-142021-04-092021-02-0212-0912-0305-2906-2512-162021-01-132021-01-1612-162021-04-072021-04-062021-01-132021-02-0112-032021-02-052021-01-1912-102021-03-0312-2712-2912-082021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 147 114 308 473 1259 204 261 552 564 3334 18 134 43 154 607 151 38 5 9 178 137 47 55 18 148 99 7 352 147 106 43 8 126 114 54 46 10 96 27 25 26 1568 31 42 192 192 1409 20 212 93 23 113 337 9 326 2 82 60 129 9
Days since peak 229 94 22 83 153 84 56 11 124 96 95 5 77 127 95 55 132 99 76 119 89 85 84 17 131 131 125 27 33 155 243 124 42 134 42 48 96 11 77 132 138 326 299 125 97 94 125 13 14 97 78 138 74 91 131 48 114 112 133 39 103
Last total 910 378003 23698 25317 69177 182553 43777 67525 213048 57954 16141 104545 53887 36613 568470 334 10798 5706 17193 61122 6211 8008 1097 1603 34533 19173 471 5893 2022 21694 12826 4911 6360 10306 17473 8512 767 17824 7031 8481 7161 1552 12437 1482 2215 1267 25206 4010 5377 51408 19031 6697 2461 25749 9355 1953 11868 49672 1484 10625 242 5403 7427 2789 705
Last daily increment 0 3321 49 40 429 2023 210 395 582 417 93 372 130 346 776 0 8 7 40 77 10 6 1 1 62 14 0 7 0 9 8 0 13 13 3 20 0 0 5 35 8 6 19 3 7 1 45 3 9 62 42 0 1 76 3 0 14 54 2 30 0 13 6 4 2
Last week 0 16119 270 769 2358 9430 871 2166 2236 2142 694 2270 389 1879 3994 20 70 26 84 405 38 36 9 12 369 190 1 36 16 124 44 11 75 42 57 82 10 303 53 50 39 26 112 8 17 12 200 14 24 385 42 0 12 247 51 5 67 313 4 115 5 50 25 33 2
Previous peak date --07-2204-2907-172021-01-2209-16 --03-2110-0507-2309-14 --07-2212-2404-122021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2908-0711-0310-2112-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-1304-1404-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-1508-262021-02-03 -- --05-20 --04-2205-1308-1305-1804-272021-01-2912-1505-0507-2407-29 --07-27 --04-2204-0904-01 --2021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1063 186 787 396 1167 144 1833 2944 159 323 256 2240 13 100 124 78 140 72 106 11 13 175 358 6 310 20 112 99 199 10 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 31 27 41 321 9 18 3562 43 40 23 137 45 2 459 105 12 59 26 27
Low between peaks 3 37 54 343 48 19 58 529 0 9 10 6 43 2 1 0 0 45 32 0 6 3 15 8 1 4 10 -2 5 1 6 8 19 11 1 1 51 3 5 6 12 -17 2 13 14 1 70 9 0 5 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-04-21 to 2021-04-27

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-04-20 127307 665275 9959 23834 15518 5675 28640 80680 77102 100895 9627 6643 25580 4847 117633 16965 62734 16951 26618 13825 4172 11244 10532
2021-04-21 127400 668200 9990 23870 15680 5696 28780 81180 77330 101100 9700 6682 25910 4860 118300 16990 63700 16960 26700 13850 4178 11320 10550
2021-04-22 127400 670900 10020 23910 15790 5722 28900 81510 77490 101400 9760 6712 26170 4869 118800 17010 64640 16960 26850 13880 4186 11410 10570
2021-04-23 127400 673400 10050 23950 15900 5745 29000 81790 77610 101700 9820 6746 26410 4884 119200 17020 65390 16970 26970 13900 4193 11490 10570
2021-04-24 127500 675100 10070 23980 15940 5766 29090 81930 77700 101800 9890 6780 26610 4890 119600 17050 66210 16980 27090 13900 4199 11560 10570
2021-04-25 127500 676600 10100 24020 16000 5788 29160 82040 77700 102100 9960 6815 26800 4893 119800 17060 66580 16980 27220 13900 4205 11640 10580
2021-04-26 127500 678400 10130 24060 16200 5808 29250 82360 77780 102400 10030 6851 26990 4893 120100 17080 66760 16980 27350 13900 4211 11710 10590
2021-04-27 127500 680900 10160 24100 16290 5829 29340 82630 77800 102800 10100 6887 27180 4905 120500 17100 67300 16990 27560 13930 4216 11790 10600

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-04-21 to 2021-04-27

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-04-20 378003 23698 25317 69177 182553 43777 67525 213048 57954 16141 104545 53887 36613 568470 334 10798 5706 17193 61122 6211 8008 34533 19173 5893 21694 12826 6360 10306 17473 8512 17824 7031 8481 7161 1552 12437 25206 5377 51408 19031 25749 9355 11868 49672 10625 5403 7427 2789
2021-04-21 381600 23740 25350 69580 184200 43940 67860 213500 58210 16190 104900 53890 36940 569300 335 10810 5711 17190 61290 6212 8013 34570 19230 5898 21710 12840 6384 10320 17480 8526 17840 7042 8511 7169 1557 12450 25250 5391 51470 19050 25760 9367 11880 49780 10650 5408 7439 2797
2021-04-22 385200 23750 25540 69900 185600 44100 68140 213800 58210 16250 105200 53930 37280 570100 336 10820 5718 17210 61400 6215 8019 34650 19290 5905 21750 12850 6397 10330 17480 8537 17920 7051 8519 7175 1564 12470 25290 5398 51560 19070 25790 9378 11890 49900 10670 5414 7449 2811
2021-04-23 388300 23770 25660 70190 187000 44250 68440 214300 58280 16300 105600 53990 37610 570800 336 10830 5724 17230 61530 6223 8022 34740 19350 5911 21760 12860 6424 10340 17490 8553 17940 7055 8527 7184 1570 12490 25320 5405 51640 19090 25830 9388 11900 49990 10690 5429 7456 2814
2021-04-24 390700 23790 25760 70480 188500 44400 68740 214700 58450 16370 105900 54020 37930 571400 337 10870 5731 17230 61600 6226 8022 34800 19390 5916 21780 12870 6440 10340 17500 8571 18000 7064 8534 7195 1576 12490 25350 5409 51710 19110 25860 9397 11900 50050 10720 5429 7463 2818
2021-04-25 392200 23820 25870 70730 189900 44540 69050 214800 58640 16430 106300 54040 38250 571600 337 10870 5737 17230 61660 6234 8022 34820 19390 5922 21790 12870 6449 10340 17500 8576 18000 7074 8540 7195 1581 12490 25360 5409 51780 19130 25860 9406 11910 50090 10740 5430 7463 2822
2021-04-26 393300 23860 25970 70990 191500 44690 69360 215000 58880 16500 106500 54060 38570 572000 338 10870 5743 17230 61660 6238 8039 34850 19420 5927 21800 12880 6458 10360 17510 8578 18030 7080 8547 7195 1585 12520 25370 5410 51840 19150 25870 9415 11920 50100 10760 5442 7463 2822
2021-04-27 396600 23890 26000 71240 193000 44830 69680 215700 59120 16560 106900 54160 38890 572700 339 10870 5749 17260 61710 6248 8047 34910 19440 5932 21810 12890 6473 10370 17520 8594 18060 7084 8579 7206 1590 12530 25420 5419 51900 19170 25930 9423 11930 50150 10780 5456 7471 2828

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-04-21 to 2021-04-27

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-04-20 127307 665275 9959 23834 15518 5675 28640 80680 77102 100895 9627 6643 25580 4847 117633 16965 62734 16951 26618 13825 4172 11244 10532
2021-04-21 127300 668000 9990 23870 15650 5694 28720 81040 77200 101200 9700 6683 25830 4855 118100 16990 63300 16960 26780 13870 4178 11320 10550
2021-04-22 127400 670700 10020 23900 15760 5716 28820 81280 77330 101500 9780 6720 26090 4863 118500 17000 63920 16960 26920 13890 4184 11400 10560
2021-04-23 127400 673100 10050 23930 15880 5737 28900 81490 77450 101800 9850 6759 26350 4875 118900 17020 64490 16970 27050 13910 4189 11480 10570
2021-04-24 127400 675100 10080 23960 15960 5758 28980 81590 77540 102000 9930 6794 26580 4882 119200 17050 65070 16970 27170 13920 4195 11560 10570
2021-04-25 127400 676900 10110 23980 16050 5779 29050 81680 77580 102300 10000 6832 26800 4888 119500 17060 65580 16970 27290 13920 4200 11640 10570
2021-04-26 127500 679000 10140 24010 16200 5801 29160 81920 77670 102600 10080 6867 27040 4892 119800 17080 66070 16980 27410 13920 4206 11710 10590
2021-04-27 127500 681500 10170 24050 16300 5827 29250 82180 77750 102900 10150 6902 27280 4904 120300 17100 66610 16980 27560 13940 4211 11790 10600

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-04-21 to 2021-04-27

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-04-20 378003 23698 25317 69177 182553 43777 67525 213048 57954 16141 104545 53887 36613 568470 334 10798 5706 17193 61122 6211 8008 34533 19173 5893 21694 12826 6360 10306 17473 8512 17824 7031 8481 7161 1552 12437 25206 5377 51408 19031 25749 9355 11868 49672 10625 5403 7427 2789
2021-04-21 381100 23750 25370 69530 184200 43900 67850 213400 58290 16310 104900 53960 36940 569200 334 10810 5711 17210 61250 6217 8015 34580 19210 5898 21720 12840 6375 10310 17480 8529 17850 7047 8498 7164 1557 12460 25240 5388 51470 19050 25800 9365 11880 49740 10650 5416 7433 2798
2021-04-22 384500 23790 25510 69830 185500 44040 68050 213700 58430 16530 105200 54010 37230 569700 335 10820 5715 17220 61340 6221 8021 34650 19270 5905 21750 12850 6384 10330 17490 8541 17910 7059 8504 7169 1562 12480 25260 5393 51530 19050 25840 9374 11890 49840 10660 5420 7437 2810
2021-04-23 387500 23830 25620 70110 186900 44150 68250 214100 58620 16720 105600 54060 37530 570200 336 10830 5718 17230 61460 6228 8026 34730 19310 5910 21770 12860 6397 10330 17490 8556 17940 7064 8515 7177 1570 12510 25280 5399 51590 19060 25880 9382 11900 49910 10680 5431 7440 2815
2021-04-24 390100 23860 25710 70370 188200 44260 68430 214600 58890 16900 105900 54100 37820 570500 337 10850 5721 17240 61520 6232 8029 34780 19350 5916 21790 12870 6406 10340 17500 8571 17990 7074 8525 7186 1575 12510 25290 5402 51640 19060 25910 9391 11910 49950 10690 5432 7444 2820
2021-04-25 391900 23890 25800 70640 189600 44400 68630 214900 59080 17080 106300 54140 38110 570700 338 10850 5723 17240 61570 6239 8032 34810 19360 5920 21800 12870 6414 10340 17500 8580 18010 7085 8536 7187 1579 12510 25290 5405 51700 19070 25930 9400 11910 49980 10700 5433 7444 2825
2021-04-26 393700 23920 25890 70890 191000 44530 68800 215100 59330 17250 106600 54170 38410 571000 339 10860 5727 17240 61580 6242 8041 34840 19390 5923 21810 12870 6422 10360 17510 8588 18040 7090 8542 7188 1584 12530 25300 5407 51750 19070 25940 9408 11930 50030 10720 5439 7445 2828
2021-04-27 397300 23950 25940 71140 192400 44670 68980 215800 59530 17420 106900 54230 38710 571500 340 10860 5731 17260 61610 6249 8049 34900 19410 5930 21820 12890 6430 10370 17520 8601 18080 7093 8558 7200 1589 12540 25320 5415 51800 19080 25980 9416 11930 50080 10730 5445 7450 2833

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths