COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-01-18

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-28	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	2021-01-04	12-08	12-25	12-27	12-27	12-21	10-13	--	12-18	2021-01-06	10-26	2021-01-04	12-27	12-18	2021-01-04	12-27	2021-01-04	2021-01-05	--	2021-01-06	11-15	2021-01-04	12-21	10-29	12-22	2021-01-03	12-27	12-10	12-27	2021-01-04	12-29	12-21	2021-01-04	12-22	2021-01-05	2021-01-03	2021-01-02	2021-01-02	12-21	12-26	2021-01-07	12-08	2021-01-04	12-20	12-21	2021-01-04	12-22	2021-01-03	12-22	12-25	12-21	--	2021-01-04	12-21	2021-01-05	12-27	2021-01-04	2021-01-04	2021-01-04	12-23	12-21	2021-01-04	2021-01-04	12-26	12-27	12-21	2021-01-03	12-21	12-21	--	2021-01-04	10-14	2021-01-04	12-08	2021-01-04	12-27	12-24	2021-01-05	12-26	12-21	11-02	12-26	10-31	2021-01-06	2021-01-04	--	12-21	12-23	12-19	12-25	12-13	12-24	--	2021-01-05	12-26	--	12-18	12-28	2021-01-05	2021-01-02	2021-01-04	12-21	2021-01-04	12-22	2021-01-04	12-27	12-27	2021-01-04	12-22	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-26	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-22	12-10	12-27	12-13	--	12-21	2021-01-06	12-21	2021-01-07	12-26	12-25	12-21	2021-01-04	2021-01-04	12-27	12-22	12-28	--	2021-01-03	10-28	12-21	2021-01-04	12-26	12-28	2021-01-05	2021-01-04	2021-01-04	12-27	12-27	2021-01-04	11-29	2021-01-04	2021-01-04	12-21	12-21	2021-01-04	2021-01-06	--	12-10	11-04	--	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-17	12-26	2021-01-04	2021-01-05	2021-01-06	11-04	12-27	12-10	2021-01-03	10-25	12-26	10-29	11-04	12-27	--	2021-01-03	2021-01-04	2021-01-02	2021-01-04	12-21	2021-01-05	2021-01-04	2021-01-05	12-27	2021-01-04	2021-01-04	2021-01-05	2021-01-07	2021-01-07	2021-01-04	--	2021-01-05	12-21	2021-01-04	--	12-21	2021-01-04	12-18	12-27	2021-01-04	12-10	2021-01-07	12-11	10-17	2021-01-04	12-27	12-27	12-26	12-29	2021-01-05	2021-01-04	2021-01-04	2021-01-04	12-21	2021-01-04	12-28	12-21	2021-01-05	--	12-25	2021-01-04	2021-01-04	12-21	12-21	12-28	2021-01-04	2021-01-04	2021-01-05	12-22	2021-01-07	12-24	12-21	12-20	--	12-29	2021-01-04	12-22	12-25	12-13	12-27	12-26	12-21	2021-01-04	2021-01-04	10-31	12-27	2021-01-04	2021-01-07	11-01	12-27	12-24	12-25	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-25	2021-01-04	2021-01-04	12-23	2021-01-04	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-27	12-21	12-12	12-13	2021-01-04	12-21	12-21	2021-01-05	12-21	12-21	12-21	10-28	2021-01-04	12-21	12-18	2021-01-04	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-28	2021-01-03	12-26	12-20	12-13	2021-01-04	12-08	12-21	12-25	12-27	2021-01-04	2021-01-06	12-21	12-21	2021-01-04	12-27	12-27	2021-01-04	--	2021-01-04	--	12-27	2021-01-04	2021-01-07	2021-01-04
Peak daily increment	60	96	95	163	107	174	175	76	460	553	191		311	136	78	113	232	417	1333	72	159	66		168	49	538	136	441	222	111	519	157	296	338	105	492	93	183	63	121	121	84	91	250	91	151	172	171	293	95	254	49	185	236	272		90	69	66	231	55	99	284	34	352	305	37	175	587	144	68	186	69		25	249	195	120	342	534	55	52	74	153	110	50	225	105	168		102	52	138	570	271	92		53	86		123	52	39	111	79	88	56	175	89	434	117	233	56	195	54	393	166	100	334	94	101	138	119	474		153	49	436	60	108	440	134	88	133	230	266	142		99	295	192	185	311	424	127	375	298	104	435	70	113	774	264	194	86	40	393		420	29		289	49	59	145	116	349	76	107	63	129	85	688	24	51	159	103	49	108	58		79	40	57	275	150	128	236	88	42	123	128	109	159	124	199		176	605	93		167	51	185	39	128	144	61	96	199	78	81	58	168	16	26	169	487	46	78	436	61	127	238		242	176	97	102	98	68	187	26	43	81	53	93	75	103		65	107	113	236	292	434	128	148	244	89	57	107	182	133	194	63	41	197	103	323	189	170	131	59	104	46	155	292	85	43	135	120	364	136	56	11	543	156	88	102	81	258	344	436	379	229	73	133	111	154	63	152	85	25	87	43	62	109	215	227	295	77	143	461	104	133	390		115		167	73	74	184
Days since peak	21	14	22	28	14	41	24	22	22	28	97		31	12	84	14	22	31	14	22	14	13		12	64	14	28	81	27	15	22	39	22	14	20	28	14	27	13	15	16	16	28	23	11	41	14	29	28	14	27	15	27	24	28		14	28	13	22	14	14	14	26	28	14	14	23	22	28	15	28	28		14	96	14	41	14	22	25	13	23	28	77	23	79	12	14		28	26	30	24	36	25		13	23		31	21	13	16	14	28	14	27	14	22	22	14	27	27	28	28	23	22	22	27	27	39	22	36		28	12	28	11	23	24	28	14	14	22	27	21		15	82	28	14	23	21	13	14	14	22	22	14	50	14	14	28	28	14	12		39	75		28	28	28	28	22	32	23	14	13	12	75	22	39	15	85	23	81	75	22		15	14	16	14	28	13	14	13	22	14	14	13	11	11	14		13	28	14		28	14	31	22	14	39	11	38	93	14	22	22	23	20	13	14	14	14	28	14	21	28	13		24	14	14	28	28	21	14	14	13	27	11	25	28	29		20	14	27	24	36	22	23	28	14	14	79	22	14	11	78	22	25	24	22	28	42	24	14	14	26	14	14	22	28	24	22	28	37	36	14	28	28	13	28	28	28	82	14	28	31	14	28	28	27	21	15	23	29	36	14	41	28	24	22	14	12	28	28	14	22	22	14		14		22	14	11	14
Last total	2299	3605	6720	5960	6946	8497	9130	3256	19911	25173	14244	3356	15511	6392	5835	6786	10467	19390	78141	5393	14673	7499	4415	20256	3685	19187	5682	37839	8893	4768	22585	6173	12017	24812	4612	21038	5039	7903	5385	8425	13996	11285	4544	11934	5425	8774	6889	7217	12368	9520	10839	3101	7489	16518	17021	4547	3734	3398	6077	8786	2291	3471	10902	2101	30370	17808	2345	5974	25753	6766	5669	8909	3225	15309	2086	17714	8318	6875	20600	24193	2241	3352	3874	6923	5153	3334	14246	7168	6808	5329	4300	2464	6269	25800	11076	4347	5135	4352	3989	3447	6894	2510	3651	11449	6180	5273	2813	8826	4160	18755	6052	9594	3344	10490	3842	17688	6636	6164	16656	3519	7181	5242	5768	23749	5424	6807	3809	20701	4501	4556	19324	5608	6323	5746	5531	12801	7445	4062	5412	15109	10037	26102	14017	20220	7308	48715	27797	3905	18410	5003	5748	40033	15023	11027	3171	1977	42846	5741	23091	2016	2555	13220	1657	2592	5663	9329	15992	3646	4688	5264	20026	6894	29969	1744	4642	6723	4872	4291	6992	2375	8146	9686	3088	4216	13712	13985	5466	24235	6456	4002	19045	7554	8140	10491	7502	11201	10545	8479	28251	7203	4314	7382	3700	8834	2042	17210	5487	5067	4257	15847	4822	4537	5307	6333	1021	1507	18422	25387	4796	3974	19252	3805	5881	34120	11264	11786	11233	4483	4013	4414	5423	11950	1347	3443	5392	3779	4314	3869	4676	6020	3914	6726	9360	10622	12510	19110	5940	6496	12939	7073	4338	4428	16134	12119	15819	3970	2899	17205	4607	13166	11889	8763	14210	3877	4559	2327	8101	7511	3875	2383	9836	5250	15518	7038	3169	869	25379	13373	4773	4088	4010	18922	19048	21319	18407	14350	5735	6468	4896	6674	3401	6271	4851	980	7166	3574	3322	4895	11617	23398	12723	3998	6851	19976	5443	6688	19346	4548	4039	4592	8065	5387	4081	10363
Last daily increment	33	56	89	128	120	50	143	32	237	360	95	52	130	129	56	81	178	218	1139	63	148	53	85	172	30	426	76	280	107	97	338	51	162	271	77	268	63	91	72	111	106	81	55	163	68	97	128	53	200	88	102	39	134	197	202	62	84	53	67	143	61	93	210	30	307	288	38	87	349	81	73	111	42	296	30	146	189	45	410	406	28	28	53	97	22	49	93	85	95	140	62	23	55	261	108	48	75	36	78	70	95	20	51	95	62	100	51	92	63	303	97	159	50	116	30	225	91	81	233	32	58	67	90	197	109	67	42	284	57	38	267	79	72	58	126	148	86	83	145	101	114	186	224	276	123	412	314	86	299	63	54	482	225	116	39	39	294	103	215	19	62	168	19	40	79	122	189	54	84	71	129	63	360	14	63	33	89	39	44	43	111	79	44	55	247	174	132	201	81	22	102	109	90	157	114	159	119	145	260	109	103	135	41	78	30	106	50	54	53	124	72	35	79	114	14	28	136	446	26	72	270	39	89	221	184	173	147	89	54	69	77	171	18	48	67	46	68	49	63	87	64	93	97	183	160	238	71	75	202	94	50	76	149	105	137	55	28	166	58	226	89	84	128	60	44	50	160	140	76	52	113	48	135	69	57	8	241	128	59	39	60	170	340	283	197	154	48	74	53	106	59	118	75	22	100	31	37	103	139	193	212	39	96	337	96	94	357	100	84	98	109	49	52	125
Last week	240	302	422	665	503	453	706	251	1384	1950	477	254	756	692	207	488	929	1191	6434	345	733	327	351	862	104	2308	361	1229	602	533	2242	209	937	1518	429	1370	436	492	336	466	564	362	331	828	427	443	640	478	1017	480	717	183	619	965	1101	311	388	269	331	877	239	384	1102	139	1373	1585	134	572	2190	507	319	634	270	1329	114	641	958	375	1857	2322	179	191	294	516	140	231	494	467	756	701	400	156	390	1765	521	322	456	230	331	333	560	160	197	470	345	361	276	626	396	1598	468	811	222	812	213	1285	536	390	1331	264	314	319	441	1300	489	439	224	1716	334	374	1864	474	452	485	622	904	484	413	520	452	601	863	1266	1710	577	1790	1634	370	1510	336	249	2886	1232	623	246	173	1881	479	1182	108	276	994	106	248	425	601	1245	241	441	332	711	319	2362	54	280	150	502	231	199	228	588	354	234	302	1198	751	596	1119	429	145	547	620	445	870	708	869	577	827	1730	477	531	688	228	521	128	629	307	275	299	622	339	280	282	612	68	125	768	2483	154	304	1476	215	401	1077	1103	1133	906	474	253	363	321	822	112	219	347	239	396	272	283	413	340	529	388	909	870	1453	466	428	1102	436	191	483	840	595	755	293	145	934	333	1073	478	500	608	285	331	204	769	859	330	175	554	312	935	444	232	30	1598	672	333	280	310	656	1808	1532	1295	811	352	505	372	658	287	591	353	88	454	181	190	442	853	985	1170	280	439	1721	473	474	1878	577	446	473	664	276	294	644
Previous peak date	--	--	10-27	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	11-04	--	10-18	10-11	10-25	10-12	--	10-29	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-12	10-28	--	--	11-03	--	10-04	09-29	10-25	11-03	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-12	10-28	--	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-03	--	11-01	--	--	--	11-03	--	--	10-25	11-02	--	11-01	--	11-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	11-02	--	11-08	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-18	09-27	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-30	10-11	--	--	--	10-28	--	--	09-27	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-28	--	11-01	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	--	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-02	--	--	11-03	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	11-02	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	11-04	11-03	11-05	11-04	08-02	--	--	09-30	11-02	--	10-20	--	--	--	11-03	11-05	10-21	--	--	11-03	11-02	--	10-13	--	--	10-18	--	10-12	--	--	11-02	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-19	11-01	11-01	--	09-30	--	--	09-29	11-01	--	11-03	--	--	--	10-25	10-31	--	--	--	11-09	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	11-01	--	--	10-18	10-12	--	10-25	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-18	10-29	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-24	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-29	11-08	11-01	--	10-11	11-03	10-06
Previous peak daily increment			82		62							32				72			624		163	99	58	235		135		55					71	321			41		57	71	159	141					40			131			32	128		61			62				68		293		20				52			182	29		57		252							31		77		22	32						59	75					41	129	71				28			71	31	56				65							51		42		52				59					30				360	152		86	541	254			60		529					611	61								73			36		391				51						91	122	35	58	68			608	67		256				82	88	101			95	50		41			196		63			44		67				237	231	85		182			438	113		95				66	141				83			24	73		76							118	84			183	125		31		127					177	46			90								48			138					163			134	58		22						91		22			320				136				41	15	35		65	41	130
Low between peaks			28		26											24			306		52	28		61		34		27					21	81			16		19	33	47	42					9			32			16	56					31				14		106		6				26				7		18		90							15		37			8							17					11	25	23				12			21	6	24				11									11		14				21									84	20		23	149	123			21		58					136									34			10		54				14							36	13	16	6			70	30		56				19	36				25			12			55		22			19		14				49	91	18		26			119			42				22	57				11			11			24							30	36			46	48		9		57					33	15			31								7			27					74			34	21		11						19		5			75				21					4			18	13	15

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-19 to 2021-01-25

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-01-18	2299	3605	6720	5960	6946	8497	9130	3256	19911	25173	14244	3356	15511	6392	5835	6786	10467	19390	78141	5393	14673	7499	4415	20256	3685	19187	5682	37839	8893	4768	22585	6173	12017	24812	4612	21038	5039	7903	5385	8425	13996	11285	4544	11934	5425	8774	6889	7217	12368	9520	10839	3101	7489	16518	17021	4547	3734	3398	6077	8786	2291	3471	10902	2101	30370	17808	2345	5974	25753	6766	5669	8909	3225	15309	2086	17714	8318	6875	20600	24193	2241	3352	3874	6923	5153	3334	14246	7168	6808	5329	4300	2464	6269	25800	11076	4347	5135	4352	3989	3447	6894	2510	3651	11449	6180	5273	2813	8826	4160	18755	6052	9594	3344	10490	3842	17688	6636	6164	16656	3519	7181	5242	5768	23749	5424	6807	3809	20701	4501	4556	19324	5608	6323	5746	5531	12801	7445	4062	5412	15109	10037	26102	14017	20220	7308	48715	27797	3905	18410	5003	5748	40033	15023	11027	3171	1977	42846	5741	23091	2016	2555	13220	1657	2592	5663	9329	15992	3646	4688	5264	20026	6894	29969	1744	4642	6723	4872	4291	6992	2375	8146	9686	3088	4216	13712	13985	5466	24235	6456	4002	19045	7554	8140	10491	7502	11201	10545	8479	28251	7203	4314	7382	3700	8834	2042	17210	5487	5067	4257	15847	4822	4537	5307	6333	1021	1507	18422	25387	4796	3974	19252	3805	5881	34120	11264	11786	11233	4483	4013	4414	5423	11950	1347	3443	5392	3779	4314	3869	4676	6020	3914	6726	9360	10622	12510	19110	5940	6496	12939	7073	4338	4428	16134	12119	15819	3970	2899	17205	4607	13166	11889	8763	14210	3877	4559	2327	8101	7511	3875	2383	9836	5250	15518	7038	3169	869	25379	13373	4773	4088	4010	18922	19048	21319	18407	14350	5735	6468	4896	6674	3401	6271	4851	980	7166	3574	3322	4895	11617	23398	12723	3998	6851	19976	5443	6688	19346	4548	4039	4592	8065	5387	4081	10363
2021-01-19	2403	3753	6865	6224	7104	8775	9420	3402	20240	26140	14330	3466	15650	6514	5916	6981	10830	19660	79780	5451	14880	7557	4499	20440	3726	19830	5768	38080	9037	4914	23380	6212	12600	25380	4794	21340	5148	8015	5458	8635	14170	11410	4612	12420	5537	9025	7151	7324	12750	9600	11000	3141	7626	16910	17450	4636	3857	3512	6137	9190	2319	3644	11350	2127	30650	18220	2408	6289	26810	6871	5759	9038	3335	16020	2125	17970	8561	7037	20960	24980	2281	3440	4003	7027	5180	3378	14420	7324	6997	5698	4463	2502	6356	26190	11210	4412	5231	4437	4146	3644	7074	2623	3686	11650	6248	5424	2891	8951	4276	19520	6143	9950	3438	10810	3933	18440	6752	6307	16920	3706	7254	5457	5982	24030	5682	6905	3862	21440	4555	4634	20030	5851	6441	5988	5951	13310	7718	4151	5540	15320	10170	26370	14350	20950	7381	49240	28180	4087	19240	5066	5817	41090	15420	11380	3225	2023	43330	5825	23350	2033	2624	13420	1709	2695	5837	9460	16240	3702	4836	5339	20160	6973	31250	1781	4690	6753	5019	4331	7031	2473	8323	9800	3120	4268	14070	14160	5579	24440	6581	4082	19210	7707	8232	10680	7608	11530	10690	8725	28370	7268	4450	7514	3780	8874	2112	17370	5539	5117	4317	16000	4891	4596	5358	6464	1035	1539	18650	25920	4832	4101	20150	3853	5962	34470	11610	12150	11450	4608	4073	4487	5484	12190	1369	3497	5455	3847	4388	3996	4743	6196	4001	6849	9435	11040	12690	19990	6173	6586	13280	7203	4386	4581	16360	12310	15960	4064	2976	17440	4807	13390	11990	9104	14390	3948	4631	2399	8256	7700	4015	2451	10070	5320	15740	7124	3210	891	25740	13600	4924	4150	4070	19120	19410	21640	19060	14710	5796	6564	5106	6930	3457	6526	4985	980	7261	3607	3368	4987	11990	23740	13100	4054	6950	20690	5604	6786	19930	4769	4232	4727	8355	5493	4216	10660
2021-01-20	2454	3819	6936	6337	7205	8855	9540	3457	20570	26540	14410	3516	15780	6637	5952	7087	11000	19940	80970	5508	15000	7615	4567	20580	3744	20290	5855	38330	9182	5031	23850	6246	12810	25720	4893	21640	5234	8129	5520	8732	14270	11490	4680	12580	5616	9115	7257	7434	12940	9680	11170	3182	7764	17080	17650	4721	3915	3561	6196	9380	2347	3725	11590	2152	30920	18550	2435	6396	27290	6979	5814	9168	3390	16380	2149	18100	8707	7123	21280	25430	2322	3485	4065	7132	5208	3422	14500	7415	7139	5929	4522	2541	6445	26580	11340	4478	5305	4485	4200	3749	7171	2661	3721	11730	6316	5480	2948	9078	4346	19840	6233	10100	3486	10980	3984	18710	6871	6385	17190	3779	7329	5522	6069	24310	5846	7004	3907	21780	4609	4715	20400	5944	6549	6103	6093	13500	7825	4238	5631	15400	10290	26570	14530	21320	7486	49600	28500	4156	19580	5128	5852	41610	15660	11500	3280	2056	43680	5907	23620	2050	2690	13630	1727	2748	5909	9570	16480	3759	4923	5399	20290	7030	31750	1791	4738	6782	5113	4372	7068	2515	8447	9870	3151	4320	14280	14310	5691	24630	6663	4114	19320	7829	8324	10830	7712	11710	10820	8889	28500	7329	4563	7646	3827	8912	2138	17490	5585	5167	4377	16120	4960	4657	5408	6598	1048	1565	18800	26360	4869	4164	20500	3903	6042	34700	11850	12370	11600	4698	4132	4560	5543	12330	1392	3540	5518	3891	4461	4052	4810	6287	4070	6952	9507	11200	12880	20310	6272	6676	13480	7293	4418	4683	16520	12420	16090	4127	3005	17590	4879	13600	12100	9195	14510	4005	4704	2444	8389	7896	4069	2484	10170	5391	15960	7212	3248	899	26120	13750	4996	4213	4131	19230	19720	21970	19310	14850	5857	6662	5191	7053	3513	6647	5050	990	7341	3638	3415	5079	12180	23910	13320	4111	7050	21000	5693	6884	20370	4927	4334	4857	8472	5543	4280	10780
2021-01-21	2499	3874	7005	6489	7291	8931	9650	3492	20890	26870	14490	3558	15910	6755	5980	7194	11170	20200	82070	5564	15140	7671	4627	20730	3758	20680	5938	38460	9324	5122	24300	6279	13040	26050	4979	21930	5300	8240	5581	8838	14360	11530	4748	12730	5695	9180	7378	7541	13120	9760	11330	3221	7898	17250	17840	4804	3990	3606	6254	9540	2378	3822	11770	2178	31190	18850	2453	6512	27690	7084	5877	9294	3440	16760	2167	18190	8890	7184	21560	25890	2361	3530	4121	7235	5235	3465	14580	7514	7225	6119	4602	2578	6531	26960	11460	4543	5376	4535	4261	3848	7238	2697	3754	11800	6383	5547	3003	9202	4412	20130	6322	10230	3516	11120	4020	18910	6987	6439	17450	3841	7401	5568	6155	24590	5982	7101	3941	22070	4661	4795	20760	6037	6634	6196	6210	13640	7916	4326	5739	15470	10420	26650	14690	21680	7588	49820	28800	4246	19860	5190	5890	42100	15880	11600	3333	2086	44020	5987	23870	2067	2759	13830	1749	2795	5984	9670	16720	3814	5000	5467	20420	7087	32190	1803	4784	6811	5209	4412	7105	2573	8555	9930	3182	4371	14500	14410	5801	24820	6740	4140	19410	7932	8413	10970	7814	11870	10960	9053	28620	7388	4670	7774	3871	8948	2157	17600	5634	5216	4436	16190	5027	4717	5458	6729	1061	1597	18920	26760	4904	4216	20840	3950	6121	34850	12090	12590	11730	4772	4189	4632	5602	12480	1414	3576	5580	3931	4534	4106	4874	6385	4117	7036	9578	11370	13050	20580	6348	6765	13660	7360	4450	4772	16660	12520	16230	4179	3026	17710	4938	13820	12200	9297	14600	4048	4775	2485	8508	8086	4133	2516	10270	5460	16170	7297	3287	905	26480	13870	5045	4274	4191	19310	20020	22290	19560	14960	5917	6758	5263	7194	3567	6767	5101	1004	7408	3668	3460	5168	12350	24060	13510	4167	7147	21280	5783	6980	20740	5078	4421	4984	8603	5584	4347	10890
2021-01-22	2539	3923	7067	6587	7361	9004	9770	3549	21230	27160	14570	3574	16040	6874	6015	7303	11330	20470	83030	5621	15260	7728	4706	20850	3775	21030	6023	38630	9470	5216	24630	6310	13180	26350	5053	22220	5369	8353	5628	8896	14450	11590	4816	12860	5759	9252	7493	7652	13260	9840	11490	3261	8035	17390	17970	4887	4051	3646	6311	9700	2406	3899	11980	2203	31450	19130	2466	6629	28040	7191	5925	9423	3481	17100	2184	18280	9038	7246	21820	26250	2402	3560	4160	7340	5262	3508	14650	7592	7313	6272	4667	2617	6620	27360	11590	4610	5449	4573	4313	3953	7307	2722	3787	11870	6450	5604	3034	9329	4479	20390	6412	10350	3548	11240	4050	19130	7106	6513	17710	3867	7476	5610	6223	24870	6114	7200	3984	22320	4713	4877	21050	6100	6706	6285	6309	13810	7995	4414	5798	15550	10550	26790	14860	21940	7688	50080	29080	4296	20080	5252	5936	42580	16060	11700	3388	2115	44310	6067	24130	2084	2827	14040	1771	2830	6039	9760	16970	3871	5068	5512	20550	7133	32580	1809	4830	6840	5289	4452	7142	2600	8630	9980	3212	4422	14680	14510	5912	25010	6809	4166	19500	8041	8503	11120	7915	11970	11090	9186	28750	7446	4794	7904	3905	8982	2184	17690	5680	5265	4495	16280	5095	4778	5508	6862	1075	1610	19030	27140	4940	4257	21150	3999	6200	35010	12300	12780	11880	4848	4247	4705	5660	12600	1436	3611	5642	3966	4607	4144	4940	6464	4169	7112	9649	11510	13230	20840	6423	6854	13810	7437	4474	4845	16800	12590	16360	4225	3053	17810	4983	14030	12310	9368	14680	4088	4849	2516	8642	8282	4188	2539	10370	5531	16390	7384	3325	909	26860	13960	5097	4337	4251	19410	20300	22620	19740	15090	5977	6855	5317	7307	3623	6850	5155	1021	7464	3698	3507	5257	12460	24210	13700	4225	7244	21540	5852	7077	21100	5253	4499	5108	8726	5636	4404	11000
2021-01-23	2582	3986	7135	6670	7422	9079	9870	3585	21560	27470	14650	3607	16170	6995	6041	7394	11470	20750	83950	5677	15360	7784	4781	20980	3791	21400	6109	38800	9617	5275	24970	6342	13300	26650	5094	22520	5453	8466	5666	8960	14540	11650	4884	13000	5820	9316	7611	7763	13380	9920	11660	3301	8173	17540	18170	4972	4131	3682	6369	9820	2425	3987	12160	2229	31720	19420	2495	6723	28390	7299	5968	9552	3516	17460	2198	18400	9185	7299	22070	26630	2443	3591	4216	7445	5289	3551	14730	7647	7431	6411	4730	2656	6710	27760	11720	4677	5505	4605	4365	4015	7377	2749	3820	11950	6518	5650	3077	9457	4540	20640	6502	10490	3584	11360	4085	19340	7226	6562	17980	3910	7550	5653	6295	25150	6223	7300	4016	22600	4766	4960	21330	6177	6798	6344	6459	13940	8079	4504	5854	15630	10670	26930	15030	22190	7777	50350	29360	4345	20330	5314	5972	43040	16250	11790	3443	2139	44600	6147	24390	2101	2897	14240	1783	2862	6102	9840	17210	3927	5138	5555	20680	7173	32970	1815	4876	6869	5371	4492	7179	2618	8724	10030	3242	4473	14880	14600	6023	25210	6869	4187	19570	8143	8594	11230	8017	12120	11230	9303	28870	7505	4891	8036	3939	9016	2199	17780	5727	5315	4555	16370	5163	4840	5557	6996	1088	1625	19150	27500	4977	4295	21470	4048	6279	35190	12510	12940	12000	4910	4305	4779	5719	12750	1458	3634	5705	4006	4680	4185	5006	6540	4217	7197	9719	11650	13410	21050	6505	6944	13980	7493	4503	4914	16930	12700	16490	4265	3076	17900	5043	14250	12410	9447	14760	4123	4923	2539	8740	8481	4238	2567	10440	5602	16620	7471	3363	913	27240	14050	5138	4401	4312	19510	20550	22950	19940	15280	6038	6953	5360	7394	3678	6946	5210	1030	7531	3728	3553	5348	12580	24360	13930	4282	7343	21810	5918	7175	21440	5392	4557	5233	8814	5693	4457	11130
2021-01-24	2611	4025	7198	6769	7502	9137	9950	3613	21900	27700	14740	3644	16300	7116	6072	7469	11580	21020	84800	5734	15460	7841	4843	21080	3801	21690	6196	38990	9765	5351	25280	6373	13400	26880	5157	22820	5509	8581	5712	9020	14630	11700	4953	13090	5880	9362	7698	7875	13490	10000	11830	3342	8313	17670	18340	5059	4171	3718	6427	9920	2446	4050	12290	2255	31990	19670	2511	6790	28650	7408	6003	9682	3552	17770	2213	18490	9299	7336	22310	26940	2484	3610	4245	7552	5317	3595	14790	7695	7495	6558	4792	2695	6800	28160	11840	4744	5571	4626	4411	4103	7494	2766	3854	12020	6586	5689	3111	9585	4599	20810	6593	10610	3609	11460	4113	19480	7348	6618	18240	3937	7625	5678	6344	25430	6325	7401	4044	22820	4818	5044	21600	6250	6869	6422	6522	14040	8137	4596	5924	15670	10800	27060	15170	22360	7834	50630	29630	4388	20490	5376	5999	43440	16420	11860	3499	2163	44880	6227	24660	2118	2969	14450	1797	2899	6134	9910	17460	3984	5197	5595	20800	7217	33260	1817	4922	6898	5427	4532	7216	2652	8799	10080	3272	4524	15040	14690	6136	25400	6926	4203	19650	8210	8685	11350	8119	12250	11360	9408	28990	7564	5005	8168	3965	9049	2220	17870	5774	5365	4616	16470	5232	4903	5607	7132	1102	1641	19260	27810	5014	4331	21740	4098	6359	35340	12660	13100	12110	4969	4364	4853	5778	12850	1481	3666	5768	4035	4754	4224	5073	6618	4267	7271	9790	11780	13600	21200	6557	7035	14150	7543	4526	4983	17050	12780	16630	4300	3087	18000	5094	14470	12510	9529	14830	4156	4997	2561	8849	8683	4281	2584	10520	5674	16840	7559	3401	913	27620	14150	5168	4465	4373	19620	20790	23280	20080	15400	6099	7052	5406	7469	3734	7031	5250	1043	7591	3759	3600	5439	12670	24480	14080	4340	7442	22040	5984	7273	21740	5548	4609	5360	8890	5736	4506	11210
2021-01-25	2657	4096	7288	6926	7625	9220	10120	3659	22250	28100	14820	3690	16430	7239	6127	7561	11770	21300	85980	5791	15610	7898	4927	21250	3827	22150	6283	39250	9914	5458	25700	6405	13640	27160	5250	23120	5578	8696	5779	9135	14740	11780	5023	13270	5954	9470	7836	7988	13710	10080	12000	3383	8453	17880	18550	5147	4258	3776	6485	10120	2505	4145	12520	2280	32260	19960	2549	6912	29090	7518	6074	9813	3605	17980	2241	18630	9487	7398	22700	27400	2526	3655	4309	7659	5344	3638	14890	7792	7628	6714	4873	2735	6891	28560	11970	4812	5643	4669	4493	4162	7603	2804	3887	12110	6654	5789	3167	9715	4669	21160	6684	10800	3665	11600	4149	19770	7470	6714	18510	3989	7700	5761	6451	25720	6438	7502	4087	23150	4871	5129	21930	6361	6940	6514	6691	14230	8244	4690	6061	15780	10930	27250	15410	22710	7946	51040	29910	4479	20820	5439	6055	43980	16670	12000	3555	2202	45190	6308	24920	2135	3043	14660	1820	2949	6228	10030	17710	4042	5288	5660	20930	7281	33720	1833	4969	6927	5523	4573	7253	2702	8927	10160	3303	4576	15290	14850	6250	25590	7017	4233	19750	8325	8777	11500	8222	12440	11500	9578	29120	7623	5110	8301	4011	9083	2261	17990	5820	5415	4676	16580	5301	4965	5657	7270	1116	1669	19400	28290	5051	4402	22070	4147	6439	35570	12860	13310	12280	5058	4423	4927	5837	13020	1503	3710	5831	4079	4828	4279	5140	6681	4336	7365	9861	12000	13780	21510	6645	7127	14370	7629	4576	5063	17190	12900	16760	4361	3118	18190	5174	14690	12620	9648	14960	4219	5072	2608	9005	8887	4364	2631	10640	5746	17070	7648	3439	924	28000	14290	5244	4530	4435	19780	21130	23620	20330	15570	6160	7151	5476	7606	3791	7170	5330	1060	7681	3789	3648	5532	12840	24680	14310	4399	7542	22410	6086	7372	22090	5647	4715	5488	9019	5789	4564	11350

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-19 to 2021-01-25

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-01-18	2299	3605	6720	5960	6946	8497	9130	3256	19911	25173	14244	3356	15511	6392	5835	6786	10467	19390	78141	5393	14673	7499	4415	20256	3685	19187	5682	37839	8893	4768	22585	6173	12017	24812	4612	21038	5039	7903	5385	8425	13996	11285	4544	11934	5425	8774	6889	7217	12368	9520	10839	3101	7489	16518	17021	4547	3734	3398	6077	8786	2291	3471	10902	2101	30370	17808	2345	5974	25753	6766	5669	8909	3225	15309	2086	17714	8318	6875	20600	24193	2241	3352	3874	6923	5153	3334	14246	7168	6808	5329	4300	2464	6269	25800	11076	4347	5135	4352	3989	3447	6894	2510	3651	11449	6180	5273	2813	8826	4160	18755	6052	9594	3344	10490	3842	17688	6636	6164	16656	3519	7181	5242	5768	23749	5424	6807	3809	20701	4501	4556	19324	5608	6323	5746	5531	12801	7445	4062	5412	15109	10037	26102	14017	20220	7308	48715	27797	3905	18410	5003	5748	40033	15023	11027	3171	1977	42846	5741	23091	2016	2555	13220	1657	2592	5663	9329	15992	3646	4688	5264	20026	6894	29969	1744	4642	6723	4872	4291	6992	2375	8146	9686	3088	4216	13712	13985	5466	24235	6456	4002	19045	7554	8140	10491	7502	11201	10545	8479	28251	7203	4314	7382	3700	8834	2042	17210	5487	5067	4257	15847	4822	4537	5307	6333	1021	1507	18422	25387	4796	3974	19252	3805	5881	34120	11264	11786	11233	4483	4013	4414	5423	11950	1347	3443	5392	3779	4314	3869	4676	6020	3914	6726	9360	10622	12510	19110	5940	6496	12939	7073	4338	4428	16134	12119	15819	3970	2899	17205	4607	13166	11889	8763	14210	3877	4559	2327	8101	7511	3875	2383	9836	5250	15518	7038	3169	869	25379	13373	4773	4088	4010	18922	19048	21319	18407	14350	5735	6468	4896	6674	3401	6271	4851	980	7166	3574	3322	4895	11617	23398	12723	3998	6851	19976	5443	6688	19346	4548	4039	4592	8065	5387	4081	10363
2021-01-19	2347	3662	6802	6094	7051	8580	9260	3306	20170	25580	14330	3419	15620	6504	5878	6889	10640	19600	79310	5449	14830	7550	4481	20420	3706	19630	5743	38090	9003	4870	23020	6202	12210	25090	4704	21260	5112	7985	5452	8529	14100	11350	4603	12120	5498	8862	7018	7292	12550	9610	10950	3136	7578	16700	17220	4606	3813	3450	6143	8952	2327	3551	11090	2123	30610	18100	2375	6102	26200	6854	5724	9009	3273	15600	2109	17870	8487	6936	20930	24680	2270	3384	3933	7013	5176	3376	14330	7251	6930	5523	4398	2489	6330	26080	11170	4404	5225	4394	4059	3546	7000	2549	3681	11540	6234	5348	2870	8926	4232	19080	6127	9740	3388	10630	3879	17960	6713	6243	16880	3567	7230	5312	5847	23960	5529	6869	3852	21040	4555	4606	19660	5706	6401	5861	5664	12980	7546	4138	5512	15200	10140	26290	14260	20560	7396	49120	28150	3980	18740	5059	5793	40600	15240	11160	3212	2020	43170	5833	23300	2033	2601	13380	1679	2638	5737	9428	16190	3692	4770	5321	20140	6949	30480	1757	4690	6750	4961	4327	7025	2425	8252	9750	3126	4273	13930	14110	5572	24420	6532	4032	19150	7655	8225	10660	7618	11380	10660	8631	28500	7281	4405	7503	3741	8923	2066	17320	5527	5113	4319	15980	4884	4587	5358	6428	1033	1530	18570	25830	4818	4031	19590	3847	5946	34330	11470	12000	11400	4567	4057	4478	5483	12090	1364	3485	5446	3824	4374	3919	4734	6108	3971	6832	9425	10810	12640	19460	6033	6565	13140	7153	4369	4512	16300	12230	15940	4026	2928	17370	4674	13370	11970	8871	14340	3931	4610	2384	8232	7648	3938	2418	9950	5300	15690	7109	3211	876	25670	13500	4837	4128	4053	19060	19350	21560	18680	14510	5788	6544	4968	6801	3450	6386	4925	993	7248	3603	3357	4977	11800	23590	12940	4043	6919	20330	5527	6763	19730	4666	4129	4699	8191	5449	4146	10510
2021-01-20	2397	3731	6871	6206	7144	8666	9380	3358	20460	25990	14400	3465	15740	6630	5915	6981	10810	19830	80540	5508	14960	7611	4538	20560	3724	20140	5813	38320	9119	4981	23490	6224	12420	25380	4799	21490	5194	8076	5510	8626	14200	11430	4666	12280	5578	8954	7125	7385	12710	9680	11090	3173	7685	16880	17430	4665	3882	3497	6197	9120	2372	3624	11310	2146	30870	18390	2404	6205	26650	6951	5781	9122	3323	15840	2131	17990	8652	7011	21250	25150	2306	3427	3995	7109	5202	3419	14410	7342	7089	5683	4461	2524	6407	26430	11260	4467	5300	4441	4117	3609	7094	2586	3715	11630	6297	5411	2924	9040	4301	19380	6208	9900	3432	10780	3923	18220	6815	6315	17130	3628	7296	5377	5932	24210	5640	6956	3894	21370	4614	4685	20010	5801	6488	5969	5817	13160	7653	4207	5595	15290	10250	26480	14490	20930	7491	49470	28420	4051	19050	5124	5832	41210	15470	11290	3257	2055	43510	5920	23530	2049	2647	13570	1699	2687	5813	9528	16410	3744	4857	5375	20260	7003	30980	1769	4742	6778	5052	4366	7059	2468	8372	9810	3161	4326	14140	14230	5690	24610	6611	4063	19250	7777	8309	10800	7744	11550	10750	8795	28800	7361	4498	7629	3785	9012	2092	17450	5570	5166	4372	16090	4951	4644	5403	6546	1046	1555	18720	26260	4848	4084	19940	3897	6012	34530	11690	12210	11560	4649	4104	4538	5542	12240	1387	3526	5509	3868	4440	3972	4789	6176	4034	6931	9490	10990	12810	19770	6125	6638	13360	7235	4400	4599	16450	12340	16060	4087	2958	17530	4747	13570	12070	8967	14460	3987	4676	2424	8375	7834	3996	2452	10050	5358	15890	7188	3253	883	26030	13640	4906	4183	4113	19160	19660	21870	18940	14660	5844	6633	5039	6922	3506	6505	4990	1004	7327	3634	3396	5057	11990	23750	13170	4094	7006	20660	5613	6856	20090	4787	4222	4797	8313	5503	4207	10630
2021-01-21	2441	3797	6938	6343	7222	8750	9510	3408	20740	26310	14480	3508	15860	6754	5950	7072	10980	20050	81720	5568	15090	7670	4584	20720	3739	20620	5882	38490	9236	5073	23920	6246	12640	25670	4883	21720	5257	8167	5570	8731	14310	11480	4724	12440	5657	9035	7241	7472	12880	9760	11230	3212	7788	17040	17640	4726	3959	3544	6252	9288	2417	3702	11510	2170	31090	18640	2428	6311	27050	7051	5838	9236	3372	16080	2151	18070	8829	7080	21550	25590	2341	3471	4048	7196	5228	3460	14490	7433	7222	5805	4533	2558	6483	26770	11360	4525	5373	4488	4179	3663	7165	2621	3748	11700	6363	5477	2978	9154	4368	19670	6286	10050	3471	10920	3960	18460	6916	6364	17370	3682	7362	5437	6017	24460	5722	7041	3934	21690	4670	4755	20360	5889	6562	6063	5957	13340	7753	4274	5694	15370	10360	26570	14730	21300	7585	49680	28680	4128	19350	5182	5872	41810	15690	11390	3298	2087	43860	6005	23740	2066	2694	13750	1721	2732	5890	9621	16630	3796	4940	5434	20370	7057	31420	1781	4778	6806	5144	4406	7093	2521	8479	9870	3196	4375	14360	14330	5809	24800	6684	4094	19340	7886	8396	10940	7866	11710	10850	8961	29110	7437	4588	7747	3829	9096	2116	17540	5613	5217	4429	16160	5018	4701	5450	6658	1060	1583	18850	26660	4877	4133	20290	3947	6078	34710	11900	12420	11710	4718	4147	4603	5598	12380	1409	3565	5561	3912	4507	4024	4835	6251	4085	7012	9555	11150	12960	20060	6211	6712	13570	7310	4432	4686	16600	12450	16190	4139	2982	17680	4802	13750	12160	9071	14560	4034	4742	2466	8508	8024	4058	2482	10150	5415	16080	7265	3292	890	26330	13740	4965	4228	4164	19220	19970	22150	19200	14810	5900	6723	5109	7049	3561	6628	5045	1015	7391	3665	3433	5136	12160	23890	13370	4145	7089	20960	5696	6938	20390	4885	4310	4890	8437	5555	4271	10750
2021-01-22	2486	3857	7000	6440	7284	8830	9620	3461	20990	26610	14550	3543	15990	6876	5986	7166	11140	20280	82850	5627	15210	7729	4648	20850	3756	21040	5951	38680	9337	5171	24290	6267	12810	25910	4960	21950	5318	8259	5623	8807	14410	11540	4784	12590	5728	9113	7347	7562	13040	9830	11370	3246	7875	17190	17810	4785	4032	3591	6301	9457	2461	3776	11720	2193	31320	18900	2447	6407	27410	7144	5889	9350	3416	16310	2172	18160	8999	7150	21840	25950	2377	3509	4087	7285	5254	3495	14570	7519	7356	5905	4599	2591	6561	27130	11450	4584	5448	4534	4234	3718	7232	2650	3780	11780	6426	5541	3017	9270	4436	19970	6364	10200	3512	11060	3996	18690	7015	6432	17580	3720	7426	5497	6089	24690	5813	7126	3977	22000	4725	4819	20680	5965	6632	6144	6082	13520	7849	4338	5755	15460	10470	26720	14960	21570	7670	49960	28930	4192	19610	5239	5917	42400	15890	11480	3339	2117	44170	6092	23930	2082	2741	13940	1743	2775	5961	9704	16860	3849	5020	5480	20490	7108	31830	1792	4818	6833	5231	4446	7127	2545	8571	9930	3231	4424	14560	14440	5929	24990	6755	4125	19440	7997	8468	11090	7986	11840	10940	9125	29420	7513	4683	7865	3871	9167	2143	17640	5655	5268	4482	16260	5086	4758	5496	6763	1073	1602	18970	27050	4905	4178	20620	3995	6144	34890	12120	12620	11870	4792	4190	4659	5652	12520	1431	3604	5621	3955	4576	4070	4882	6319	4139	7084	9616	11310	13120	20320	6297	6782	13740	7388	4458	4770	16740	12540	16310	4186	3010	17820	4845	13920	12250	9165	14660	4076	4808	2503	8656	8212	4118	2512	10250	5473	16250	7338	3333	896	26630	13830	5022	4272	4210	19320	20280	22410	19400	14950	5955	6813	5178	7159	3618	6727	5101	1028	7440	3696	3471	5212	12280	24030	13560	4191	7171	21230	5765	7019	20690	4999	4394	4978	8562	5610	4329	10880
2021-01-23	2539	3928	7071	6535	7356	8909	9730	3512	21320	26930	14630	3576	16110	7000	6019	7255	11300	20510	83980	5688	15330	7788	4705	21010	3776	21510	6020	38870	9450	5258	24690	6287	12970	26170	5034	22180	5401	8351	5672	8886	14500	11610	4851	12730	5802	9188	7472	7656	13190	9910	11510	3280	7960	17360	18040	4844	4111	3637	6360	9623	2501	3851	11900	2217	31570	19190	2479	6532	27790	7241	5939	9465	3460	16560	2192	18280	9169	7217	22150	26380	2414	3547	4150	7374	5280	3537	14640	7602	7509	6017	4673	2626	6639	27480	11550	4645	5524	4580	4296	3778	7313	2682	3812	11860	6485	5602	3065	9386	4502	20270	6440	10380	3553	11190	4034	18930	7114	6505	17810	3765	7491	5554	6165	24940	5883	7208	4015	22320	4775	4890	21020	6057	6709	6219	6256	13690	7957	4402	5825	15540	10570	26880	15210	21870	7746	50270	29170	4257	19880	5297	5956	43000	16100	11570	3383	2144	44480	6168	24160	2099	2789	14130	1763	2817	6033	9788	17080	3902	5100	5532	20610	7158	32310	1802	4861	6861	5322	4486	7161	2567	8683	9990	3266	4468	14770	14540	6052	25210	6829	4155	19530	8101	8549	11210	8088	12020	11030	9290	29730	7588	4782	7976	3913	9242	2166	17740	5698	5325	4532	16350	5154	4815	5542	6882	1087	1622	19120	27460	4935	4222	20980	4045	6210	35090	12340	12800	12030	4859	4235	4722	5714	12670	1454	3641	5676	3998	4635	4117	4937	6389	4193	7171	9679	11480	13270	20590	6384	6855	13940	7463	4487	4856	16900	12650	16420	4232	3035	17950	4911	14110	12340	9256	14750	4118	4876	2534	8778	8393	4176	2548	10350	5531	16430	7415	3370	902	26960	13930	5071	4319	4264	19430	20580	22710	19630	15140	6011	6903	5245	7262	3675	6841	5157	1039	7511	3727	3513	5291	12420	24170	13790	4242	7249	21620	5838	7102	21030	5147	4469	5057	8683	5672	4392	11010
2021-01-24	2580	4007	7150	6654	7439	9009	9860	3563	21600	27250	14710	3608	16230	7135	6061	7329	11470	20740	85170	5749	15430	7846	4754	21140	3793	22100	6092	39060	9553	5340	25110	6309	13160	26470	5112	22420	5471	8445	5724	8974	14600	11670	4911	12880	5874	9288	7597	7749	13350	9980	11660	3321	8057	17540	18240	4898	4178	3684	6414	9791	2552	3930	12120	2241	31810	19450	2506	6628	28130	7338	5988	9583	3511	16830	2213	18390	9339	7283	22450	26800	2451	3589	4195	7459	5306	3579	14720	7678	7644	6107	4740	2669	6718	27840	11650	4701	5597	4625	4361	3828	7424	2714	3846	11960	6551	5664	3107	9505	4568	20560	6518	10560	3593	11330	4071	19160	7215	6563	18050	3821	7557	5613	6257	25180	5970	7295	4054	22640	4829	4948	21380	6151	6785	6321	6385	13860	8050	4462	5904	15620	10690	27020	15450	22140	7813	50550	29430	4333	20140	5361	5994	43640	16330	11690	3428	2177	44820	6244	24370	2116	2838	14330	1785	2865	6102	9879	17310	3956	5190	5581	20730	7209	32750	1812	4899	6891	5414	4527	7195	2603	8780	10060	3302	4511	14990	14650	6178	25400	6901	4185	19620	8200	8640	11330	8198	12190	11120	9457	30050	7668	4877	8087	3953	9317	2196	17840	5742	5383	4578	16450	5224	4873	5587	6991	1100	1643	19280	27810	4955	4275	21360	4096	6278	35280	12530	12990	12170	4929	4282	4784	5768	12820	1479	3680	5730	4040	4699	4167	4983	6447	4255	7244	9749	11660	13430	20820	6470	6927	14200	7538	4516	4943	17040	12760	16560	4280	3057	18110	4985	14290	12440	9363	14870	4167	4945	2564	8915	8602	4241	2576	10440	5590	16600	7494	3414	908	27270	14040	5132	4367	4311	19540	20890	22990	19840	15330	6066	6996	5314	7355	3733	6963	5208	1050	7583	3759	3549	5371	12580	24340	14060	4290	7333	22020	5922	7182	21280	5274	4550	5139	8804	5727	4450	11130
2021-01-25	2637	4100	7242	6829	7565	9121	10040	3617	21950	27730	14800	3664	16360	7272	6110	7475	11680	20990	86520	5810	15610	7910	4829	21320	3815	22700	6163	39290	9695	5462	25610	6330	13490	26820	5212	22650	5555	8539	5790	9114	14740	11750	4974	13100	5958	9412	7766	7864	13560	10070	11800	3370	8205	17770	18480	4955	4268	3735	6480	9973	2612	4018	12410	2265	32110	19760	2542	6768	28680	7443	6057	9701	3564	17070	2236	18540	9534	7366	22820	27340	2489	3650	4282	7557	5333	3626	14820	7789	7830	6279	4831	2707	6798	28200	11750	4765	5673	4674	4439	3892	7546	2778	3889	12060	6627	5749	3165	9625	4644	20880	6616	10770	3646	11500	4120	19490	7348	6679	18310	3895	7643	5700	6375	25440	6104	7408	4098	22990	4893	5049	21790	6274	6866	6444	6587	14100	8184	4528	6044	15720	10800	27240	15750	22610	7933	50980	29730	4428	20550	5430	6048	44380	16590	11880	3470	2226	45240	6345	24640	2133	2887	14520	1808	2923	6198	9984	17550	4011	5290	5646	20840	7268	33310	1828	4954	6921	5511	4568	7230	2674	8929	10140	3339	4571	15240	14770	6305	25600	6998	4218	19730	8339	8744	11500	8330	12430	11230	9635	30370	7755	4986	8224	4002	9398	2238	17980	5787	5442	4643	16570	5295	4934	5639	7147	1117	1674	19440	28370	5009	4340	21800	4154	6345	35510	12780	13230	12360	5019	4327	4857	5833	12990	1503	3722	5800	4090	4779	4234	5052	6509	4328	7347	9816	11890	13600	21240	6567	7002	14520	7625	4570	5033	17200	12890	16710	4345	3098	18300	5104	14490	12540	9509	15000	4232	5014	2612	9098	8842	4324	2618	10570	5649	16820	7572	3479	918	27660	14190	5216	4421	4376	19690	21240	23400	20180	15540	6124	7089	5387	7534	3792	7112	5299	1061	7672	3790	3601	5472	12780	24560	14350	4344	7448	22590	6040	7300	21630	5383	4665	5251	8934	5792	4520	11310

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-01-18 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-01-18