COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-04-29

	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-26	12-27	12-26	2021-03-25	12-27	07-21	2021-03-25	12-21	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-23	12-28	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	2021-01-02	2021-01-11	12-30	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-29	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-07	2021-01-07	2021-01-03	11-13	2021-01-01	12-21	10-24	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-14	12-06	12-28	12-30	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-30	12-30	12-27	12-07	10-28	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-08	12-06	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-22	12-21	10-28	12-30	12-22	12-28	12-25	12-22	12-21	2021-01-03	12-21	12-21	12-30	10-04	2021-01-04	12-26	2021-01-05	12-29	12-26	12-27	12-29	12-24	11-02	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-28	2021-01-02	2021-02-25	12-21	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	12-22	10-04	12-27	07-21	12-24	12-29	10-04	12-24	12-21	11-09	12-06	12-26	07-21	10-31	12-27	12-30	12-28	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-25	12-21	12-22	2021-01-06	09-27	12-27	12-23	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-25	12-18	12-25	2021-01-04	12-26	12-26	10-04	12-21	12-28	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-21	2021-01-05	12-22	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-28	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-23	12-13	12-27	12-13	12-29	12-22	12-29	12-28	12-28	12-30	12-22	12-26	12-21	2021-01-01	12-21	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	11-01	12-21	10-27	12-27	12-29	2021-01-06	11-02	2021-01-03	12-21	12-27	12-27	11-02	12-21	12-26	2021-03-31	12-22	12-21	12-31	12-29	2021-01-02	12-22	11-01	2021-01-07	12-08	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	2021-03-25	12-31	07-21	12-22	12-27	12-06	07-21	2021-03-18	12-28	12-29	2021-01-03	11-03	12-27	12-06	12-27	07-21	12-08	12-27	10-26	12-26	12-21	10-04	11-01	12-21	12-29	11-04	12-21	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	2021-01-01	12-29	12-29	11-02	12-28	07-21	12-27	12-28	12-26	12-27	2021-01-06	2021-01-06	2021-01-01	12-06	2021-01-04	12-29	12-21	12-31	2021-01-05	12-22	10-04	12-06	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-10	12-31	12-13	10-18	12-30	12-28	12-27	12-25	2021-01-26	2021-01-02	12-29	12-29	2021-01-03	12-23	12-21	12-31	12-29	12-22	11-02	07-21	12-30	12-25	12-25	12-21	12-29	12-21	12-21	12-28	12-26	12-25	2021-01-04	12-22	11-09	10-04	12-21	12-22	12-20	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	12-25	12-25	10-27	12-22	11-07	12-28	12-27	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-02	12-25	12-29	2021-01-02	12-26	12-30	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-26	12-21	12-19	12-22	12-23	12-27	12-06	11-13	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-26	12-08	12-21	11-01	12-27	12-27	12-15	12-25	11-02	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-20	12-13	10-04	11-02	12-07	10-04	12-22	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	2021-01-01	12-28	12-25	12-31	12-21	12-30	12-26	11-02
Peak daily increment	92	102	61	88	97	40	76	73	119	106	170	110	171	178	78	477	589	189	58	326	128	110	108	233	252	426	1250	75	157	65	95	58	157	50	484	142	434	228	107	524	155	233	306	320	107	508	94	186	62	122	123	211	137	99	256	87	148	354	172	194	175	107	303	40	90	268	52	197	249	283	59	91	71	65	266	20	243	5	35	53	94	285	34	553	288	38	181	598	151	69	189	72	58	246	27	170	248	187	118	322	119	87	536	308	60	52	71	76	160	106	25	51	235	204	102	163	147	107	56	146	593	273	97	74	80	69	90	73	94	119	150	125	54	38	122	82	597	92	56	180	92	451	119	34	377	219	59	201	57	401	172	103	338	101	106	136	120	476	101	159	52	76	442	57	116	452	143	83	74	134	18	237	275	148	70	100	283	198	349	311	428	107	1449	284	104	456	71	230	102	727	26	200	90	36	368	92	419	25	46	106	298	37	62	153	186	27	213	302	361	79	62	66	23	105	63	122	85	723	190	212	192	23	50	137	105	51	394	105	58	122	107	41	55	277	158	121	224	90	68	123	3	125	44	108	58	154	120	207	43	102	174	623	105	81	176	151	286	52	188	39	132	139	56	96	198	80	85	59	174	36	25	162	450	42	83	82	403	65	131	573	25	209	244	167	97	42	111	102	69	181	27	42	86	72	448	95	79	108	80	66	102	115	247	293	450	131	156	219	94	55	112	26	189	138	197	66	42	206	105	331	189	270	181	123	56	109	46	141	352	90	44	138	122	360	139	51	101	14	559	151	90	110	120	84	250	329	449	390	227	259	138	117	160	65	154	87	29	78	166	42	65	67	115	217	217	265	83	148	430	106	138	377	106	115	176	95	173	71	69	594
Days since peak	122	123	123	124	123	124	35	123	282	35	129	123	142	129	127	122	127	198	123	127	117	108	120	129	124	128	121	123	123	121	143	112	116	167	118	129	187	128	123	123	136	144	122	120	125	129	124	128	120	120	123	143	183	129	123	124	142	144	123	142	129	128	129	183	120	128	122	125	128	129	116	129	129	120	207	115	124	114	121	124	123	121	126	178	123	122	123	123	129	125	129	129	122	117	63	129	197	123	143	124	128	207	123	282	126	121	207	126	129	171	144	124	282	180	123	120	122	129	124	128	125	129	128	113	214	123	127	123	128	122	125	132	125	115	124	124	207	129	122	129	129	123	129	114	128	123	122	129	129	129	122	123	122	129	127	137	123	137	121	128	121	122	122	120	128	124	129	118	129	122	129	123	128	122	122	125	179	129	184	123	121	113	178	116	129	123	123	178	129	124	29	128	129	119	121	117	128	179	112	142	129	129	129	128	129	35	119	282	128	123	144	282	42	122	121	116	177	123	144	123	282	142	123	185	124	129	207	179	129	121	176	129	115	123	129	118	121	121	178	122	282	123	122	124	123	113	113	118	144	115	121	129	119	114	128	207	144	122	129	123	122	140	119	137	193	120	122	123	125	93	117	121	121	116	127	129	119	121	128	178	282	120	125	125	129	121	129	129	122	124	125	115	128	171	207	129	128	130	116	122	123	128	129	136	122	124	129	125	125	184	128	173	122	123	179	129	127	128	123	129	143	148	125	121	117	124	120	115	123	129	124	129	131	128	127	123	144	167	129	123	128	124	142	129	179	123	123	135	125	178	129	128	129	123	124	130	137	207	178	143	207	128	127	128	123	121	128	128	122	123	128	123	118	122	125	119	129	120	124	178
Last total	7180	5840	2901	5053	8586	3143	8405	5943	1451	15569	8277	9639	9793	11757	3857	23623	30499	19499	4273	17655	8235	8183	8245	13534	22553	22394	101398	7087	18192	9218	6166	5969	26274	4972	25345	7094	49532	10820	6761	28645	6904	12592	14554	30840	6035	24371	6253	9112	7135	9942	17277	13439	14548	5780	14121	7099	10130	26177	8218	10767	8359	7370	16006	1773	12534	12704	3759	9119	20937	21742	6151	4916	4279	7936	17077	2476	11347	294	3872	3152	5837	14229	2569	38084	23821	2834	7956	30927	8581	7546	10363	4281	4331	20150	2988	12227	23753	11889	7852	26821	4192	6938	31194	6371	3037	4202	5182	4880	8221	6419	2856	4821	4803	18280	9643	8898	6638	5850	2990	7372	29793	12439	5256	7049	4997	6723	5261	5589	5928	11453	9621	8070	3094	4785	13786	8182	41644	6392	3867	10282	5514	22418	7403	3397	21698	11962	4208	13048	5124	20824	7953	7676	20880	4340	8925	6212	7067	26910	7027	8229	4997	3601	26598	6161	5700	24941	7869	7971	2987	7684	2301	6805	15020	9046	6086	7673	19880	12277	34235	17380	24276	9450	62889	36748	4923	21698	6589	6897	7491	48489	20650	12707	3759	2792	53238	8285	26139	2703	3464	6730	16275	2255	3305	6840	12504	7728	12490	3191	20124	4404	4181	1600	11639	6192	7303	23664	8458	35637	11322	11490	6351	1986	6038	8676	6395	5550	22219	9526	3033	10091	12524	4358	6097	18240	17517	7421	30758	8580	4969	23168	72	9523	3461	9678	4569	15671	9183	14280	4177	13898	10933	32955	9325	6222	9262	10650	21346	4589	10882	2632	21365	6425	6110	4882	21397	6630	5519	6859	7728	1663	1891	23303	34251	5584	2890	5393	23945	5082	6904	43791	235	15056	15544	14682	5975	4226	4823	5830	7333	15227	1660	5364	7547	4510	18859	5550	4705	5895	8135	5464	8675	11365	14803	14781	22467	7426	7838	17067	8555	5357	6036	3415	21006	15927	20144	5191	3762	22122	5475	15955	13389	17588	11509	18423	5423	5554	3001	10997	9981	5409	2925	11458	6307	17903	8040	4233	6443	1000	28907	16625	5709	4867	7444	5183	25814	25797	24950	22236	17881	7167	7952	5857	7926	5002	8228	6392	1177	4438	8938	4693	8115	4099	6516	14254	29133	17288	4943	8505	24296	6873	8250	24826	6097	5329	11487	6431	10744	6661	5571	12277
Last daily increment	2	3	1	0	0	1	12	0	0	8	5	0	1	5	1	7	3	26	0	2	1	3	4	13	7	4	37	5	9	1	1	4	35	6	10	4	40	5	3	5	0	0	2	7	0	5	3	2	3	6	7	5	17	5	4	0	3	7	0	0	1	5	15	0	10	4	1	3	15	4	1	3	4	6	28	2	2	0	1	2	2	7	1	19	6	4	2	6	5	6	4	4	0	15	0	22	36	3	3	5	7	1	14	11	2	1	9	4	3	2	0	2	0	10	2	8	2	1	1	2	5	2	2	8	6	4	3	5	4	19	3	0	3	2	4	3	15	4	2	3	1	6	5	0	6	6	1	10	2	4	0	4	13	1	2	2	3	3	7	1	3	4	6	3	2	6	5	27	4	3	0	5	4	5	11	5	19	3	33	2	12	6	62	18	0	6	0	6	4	5	17	2	0	0	27	9	4	2	0	1	5	0	2	0	8	6	4	0	4	2	2	12	1	1	3	20	1	4	3	10	5	2	3	3	3	3	14	10	1	4	5	3	1	8	10	10	12	7	2	6	0	4	3	2	3	23	5	3	0	11	4	1	3	4	3	1	3	1	5	3	16	0	0	1	15	5	2	2	2	2	3	14	18	3	0	9	8	5	7	43	0	7	12	3	4	0	1	2	1	4	2	8	6	2	11	2	2	2	0	4	3	0	7	1	7	2	5	0	2	2	0	2	11	3	14	4	4	3	3	0	3	4	8	5	1	2	2	7	1	4	2	2	1	4	1	3	3	1	6	18	3	1	1	3	42	8	3	6	8	4	5	1	2	6	3	11	0	2	3	0	13	2	4	10	16	8	2	4	5	3	6	7	5	1	5	0	3	5	2	7
Last week	27	19	9	1	13	8	53	7	4	31	32	18	14	37	8	43	47	140	6	23	28	29	22	59	79	27	181	26	68	12	2	14	173	25	55	23	242	15	15	77	3	6	36	48	8	42	14	15	10	23	37	23	72	33	24	10	22	41	7	10	6	45	70	2	40	25	8	22	73	30	11	26	19	38	126	6	20	0	4	5	25	45	10	138	81	11	14	54	32	30	14	22	1	39	6	108	178	33	17	52	23	17	101	47	12	15	47	16	18	26	4	17	20	94	23	47	9	18	2	29	38	9	12	18	23	33	19	27	46	115	10	12	9	4	29	11	160	13	15	20	5	45	27	11	39	29	16	41	13	34	12	26	79	8	18	15	12	27	61	12	17	21	74	15	10	88	28	112	11	28	2	15	35	40	26	53	88	26	207	19	45	37	294	134	5	35	8	20	20	50	83	21	4	8	166	37	33	7	6	6	42	14	9	16	84	39	25	9	45	6	5	60	12	17	21	113	16	75	37	43	21	15	24	19	22	22	108	104	14	22	36	10	14	44	49	30	79	48	14	65	0	36	10	18	28	81	46	26	3	66	30	57	18	13	24	28	16	5	36	9	68	5	14	5	79	37	10	12	10	8	12	90	65	18	7	29	59	57	23	230	0	55	68	26	12	19	9	25	15	26	15	41	29	15	52	25	18	17	25	17	19	20	52	16	44	14	10	15	13	17	16	9	52	40	80	14	13	48	8	39	13	31	72	53	15	13	14	37	15	26	5	19	20	22	14	13	9	8	64	98	16	8	5	24	187	59	39	56	45	17	23	29	15	37	14	38	5	18	13	18	43	10	37	59	62	82	13	27	33	15	25	48	14	12	21	5	26	19	7	39
Previous peak date	07-21	07-21	--	--	10-27	07-21	12-21	10-07	--	12-21	--	10-21	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	10-26	11-02	--	10-07	--	11-02	--	10-13	10-13	--	10-25	10-15	--	11-02	--	05-03	10-26	--	--	--	--	10-16	11-02	--	--	--	--	10-12	09-27	10-27	09-02	--	--	10-01	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-10	--	--	11-02	--	--	10-27	10-18	--	10-20	--	--	10-13	07-21	07-21	10-14	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	04-20	10-31	10-31	--	10-29	10-17	--	--	--	10-21	10-27	12-28	10-01	--	10-12	--	--	07-21	07-21	--	--	--	11-01	07-21	10-27	--	--	07-21	10-27	--	--	--	10-30	--	10-20	--	10-06	--	--	--	10-18	--	07-21	--	--	--	07-21	--	--	--	10-15	10-29	10-11	07-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-28	10-27	10-14	--	10-12	--	10-27	10-30	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	10-17	10-27	07-21	--	11-01	--	--	--	10-13	07-21	--	06-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	09-29	--	10-08	04-14	11-02	--	--	10-31	--	10-12	09-28	12-27	--	--	--	11-02	10-25	--	--	--	--	10-15	--	--	--	10-12	12-21	11-03	--	09-30	--	--	--	12-07	--	--	11-02	--	--	--	09-24	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	07-21	--	--	10-31	--	--	11-03	08-02	--	--	11-02	11-01	--	10-22	--	--	--	--	07-21	--	11-02	11-02	--	11-02	--	--	11-03	10-26	--	07-21	--	10-11	10-10	--	10-19	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	11-02	11-02	10-31	07-21	--	09-30	10-25	--	--	--	10-28	--	--	--	07-21	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	07-21	--	--	--	10-13	--	10-24	--	--	--	--	--	10-17	10-08	10-29	--	--	07-21	10-18	10-12	--	--	--	10-06	10-31	--	--	--	--	10-18	11-04	--	--	10-29	10-11	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	10-17	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-22	--	--	10-22	--	--	--	--	--	07-21	--	--	07-21	--	10-15	--	10-16	10-24	--	--	09-30	10-30	10-11	--	11-03	--	10-19	10-28	--	10-17	--	--
Previous peak daily increment	616	365			80	295	134	40		260		61		40					31			75	271		262		1226		166	98		54	234		363		55	19					62	1197					57	72	160	31			54				39			60			294			35	120		54			62	1272	83	35					57		68	129	18		69	22				25	164	25	206		59			226	710				39	383	25			191	31				24		30		29				56		475				687				43	127	72	1766									70	33	54		60		69	57				38			22	44	144		49				59	248		45							46		153		81	75	479			56		71	480	273				2237	61					44				109	105	87		25				191			2429				91			53				1007			82			56	68			1343	64		257					230		139	354		150			88	41		459		41	46		194		65					67				406	233	81	152		189	33				104				226			66						876				66		75						20	118	77			149	184	120				129	18					172	46			89	27	17						45				144									135			23						307			376		24		319	68			141	22	25		38		54	32		67
Low between peaks	0	-1			28	0	8	18		13		26		-44					8			37	20		48		303		55	29		19	62		23		27	-19					21	68					19	34	54	12			23				7			26			28			-43	-38		17			31	-11	-4	-18					12		1	39	-9		28	-31				9	53	8	34		-47			-2	-3				-13	-3	-32			-1	10				-10		8		-67				19		-4				-5				-9	24	23	-7									22	-40	23		15		-120	-7				19			-66	-54	-1		15				21	-2		0							18		21		23	6	120			21		21	58	6				114	21					-25				39	6	35		8				7			18				23			-9				-7			35			16	7			50	28		58					1		20	37		38			22	13		-2		-20	-118		62		22					16				36	92	19	-4		26	14				31				-2			24						-7				28		24						-77	30	38			-1	43	43				58	-23					32	15			31	11	7						6				-31									-27			-71						-2			-2		-25		77	-103			19	-17	-8		8		27	12		-4

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-04-30 to 2021-05-06

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rossendale	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-04-29	7180	5840	2901	8586	3143	8405	5943	15569	8277	9639	9793	11757	3857	23623	30499	19499	4273	17655	8235	8183	8245	13534	22553	22394	101398	7087	18192	9218	5969	26274	4972	25345	7094	49532	10820	6761	28645	12592	14554	30840	6035	24371	6253	9112	7135	9942	17277	13439	14548	5780	14121	7099	10130	26177	8218	10767	8359	7370	16006	12534	12704	3759	9119	20937	21742	6151	4916	4279	7936	17077	2476	11347	5837	14229	2569	38084	23821	2834	7956	30927	8581	7546	10363	4281	20150	2988	12227	23753	11889	7852	26821	4192	6938	31194	6371	3037	4202	5182	4880	8221	6419	4821	4803	18280	9643	8898	6638	5850	7372	29793	12439	5256	7049	4997	6723	5261	5589	5928	11453	9621	8070	3094	13786	8182	41644	6392	3867	10282	22418	7403	3397	21698	11962	4208	13048	5124	20824	7953	7676	20880	4340	8925	6212	7067	26910	7027	8229	4997	3601	26598	6161	5700	24941	7869	7971	2987	7684	6805	15020	9046	6086	7673	19880	12277	34235	17380	24276	9450	62889	36748	21698	6589	6897	7491	48489	20650	12707	2792	53238	8285	26139	2703	3464	6730	16275	2255	3305	6840	12504	7728	12490	3191	20124	4404	1600	11639	6192	7303	23664	8458	35637	11322	11490	6351	1986	6038	8676	6395	5550	22219	9526	3033	10091	12524	4358	6097	18240	17517	7421	30758	8580	4969	23168	9523	3461	9678	4569	15671	9183	14280	13898	10933	32955	9325	6222	9262	10650	21346	10882	2632	21365	6110	21397	6630	5519	6859	7728	1663	1891	23303	34251	5584	2890	5393	23945	5082	6904	43791	15056	15544	14682	5975	4226	4823	5830	7333	15227	1660	5364	7547	4510	18859	5550	4705	5895	8135	5464	8675	11365	14803	14781	22467	7426	7838	17067	8555	5357	6036	3415	21006	15927	20144	5191	3762	22122	5475	15955	13389	17588	11509	18423	5423	5554	3001	10997	9981	5409	11458	6307	17903	8040	4233	6443	1000	28907	16625	5709	4867	5183	25814	25797	24950	22236	17881	7167	7952	5857	7926	5002	8228	6392	4438	8938	4693	8115	4099	6516	14254	29133	17288	4943	8505	24296	6873	8250	24826	6097	5329	11487	10744	6661	5571	12277
2021-04-30	7198	5851	2902	8586	3145	8410	5945	15580	8280	9644	9796	11770	3859	23630	30530	19520	4276	17660	8240	8189	8248	13540	22570	22400	101500	7091	18190	9221	5972	26270	4981	25360	7098	49610	10820	6764	28670	12590	14560	30880	6040	24380	6255	9114	7137	9944	17290	13440	14550	5785	14130	7102	10150	26190	8219	10770	8360	7377	16020	12540	12710	3761	9124	20940	21750	6154	4916	4282	7942	17090	2480	11350	5845	14240	2571	38090	23840	2837	7959	30940	8586	7550	10370	4284	20160	2989	12240	23790	11900	7855	26840	4197	6945	31210	6379	3039	4204	5182	4883	8225	6423	4824	4808	18300	9648	8906	6639	5855	7376	29800	12440	5258	7052	5000	6737	5261	5600	5934	11470	9623	8070	3094	13790	8184	41690	6398	3867	10290	22430	7409	3400	21710	11970	4210	13060	5127	20830	7955	7681	20890	4345	8932	6212	7071	26920	7027	8232	5000	3604	26610	6165	5708	24960	7874	7987	2989	7690	6808	15030	9054	6094	7673	19900	12280	34300	17380	24290	9450	62950	36810	21710	6594	6901	7495	48510	20670	12710	2793	53310	8291	26150	2704	3470	6731	16280	2258	3307	6846	12520	7733	12500	3193	20130	4406	1608	11640	6199	7307	23690	8463	35650	11330	11500	6356	1988	6042	8680	6398	5553	22270	9541	3036	10100	12530	4360	6100	18270	17530	7425	30780	8585	4971	23200	9534	3462	9681	4575	15690	9183	14290	13900	10940	32970	9328	6222	9265	10660	21350	10890	2634	21380	6112	21420	6637	5521	6861	7731	1664	1893	23310	34280	5587	2891	5393	23950	5092	6907	43840	15070	15560	14690	5980	4229	4826	5835	7336	15250	1662	5365	7552	4514	18900	5553	4708	5898	8139	5466	8675	11370	14830	14780	22480	7428	7841	17080	8558	5362	6039	3418	21020	15930	20160	5193	3765	22130	5477	15960	13390	17590	11520	18440	5427	5556	3001	11000	9990	5415	11460	6311	17910	8041	4235	6446	1000	28920	16630	5714	4869	5187	25830	25820	24960	22260	17890	7170	7956	5857	7932	5008	8232	6392	4442	8941	4696	8125	4101	6516	14280	29160	17300	4946	8511	24300	6876	8256	24840	6100	5331	11490	10750	6664	5573	12280
2021-05-01	7212	5860	2903	8589	3149	8410	5954	15590	8283	9648	9798	11770	3861	23640	30550	19540	4278	17660	8243	8198	8249	13540	22580	22410	101500	7096	18200	9225	5972	26280	4990	25360	7101	49670	10820	6767	28690	12600	14560	30900	6042	24380	6256	9116	7139	9947	17300	13440	14550	5794	14140	7103	10150	26200	8221	10770	8364	7386	16020	12550	12710	3764	9132	20940	21760	6160	4919	4282	7949	17100	2493	11360	5850	14250	2571	38100	23850	2841	7964	30940	8589	7553	10370	4290	20170	2990	12260	23820	11910	7855	26850	4202	6961	31220	6384	3042	4205	5185	4883	8229	6426	4828	4818	18320	9652	8909	6640	5858	7376	29820	12450	5261	7054	5000	6753	5264	5610	5934	11500	9629	8071	3094	13800	8191	41740	6403	3868	10290	22430	7416	3409	21720	11970	4210	13070	5131	20840	7957	7688	20900	4348	8943	6213	7078	26930	7027	8235	5007	3612	26640	6172	5710	24980	7878	8003	2993	7702	6810	15030	9063	6100	7676	19920	12290	34340	17390	24290	9450	62990	36840	21710	6596	6903	7500	48520	20710	12710	2793	53360	8295	26150	2709	3471	6731	16290	2261	3311	6848	12520	7733	12510	3196	20150	4408	1608	11650	6200	7312	23700	8472	35680	11330	11520	6365	1988	6050	8695	6398	5553	22320	9553	3037	10110	12540	4365	6106	18290	17530	7425	30810	8589	4974	23220	9536	3462	9685	4583	15700	9185	14290	13900	10950	32990	9335	6222	9265	10670	21360	10900	2635	21400	6115	21450	6644	5524	6863	7733	1666	1894	23320	34300	5592	2892	5394	23960	5094	6907	43880	15070	15580	14700	5982	4235	4832	5841	7340	15250	1663	5368	7563	4515	18930	5555	4711	5903	8143	5468	8677	11370	14840	14790	22480	7430	7846	17090	8560	5364	6044	3422	21030	15950	20180	5195	3765	22140	5479	15970	13400	17610	11520	18450	5430	5556	3003	11010	9990	5418	11470	6315	17910	8043	4237	6447	1000	28940	16630	5718	4871	5192	25850	25830	24970	22270	17890	7173	7961	5857	7932	5014	8236	6392	4446	8944	4699	8135	4104	6518	14280	29170	17300	4949	8517	24310	6882	8262	24860	6105	5332	11490	10760	6664	5573	12290
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2021-05-04	7239	5880	2906	8596	3157	8418	5966	15620	8301	9661	9805	11800	3865	23670	30600	19610	4284	17670	8255	8220	8261	13550	22620	22430	101600	7112	18230	9234	5978	26350	5005	25390	7113	49800	10830	6778	28740	12600	14580	30970	6050	24390	6260	9121	7146	9958	17320	13450	14590	5813	14160	7110	10170	26220	8226	10780	8371	7408	16040	12580	12720	3771	9150	20980	21790	6172	4927	4287	7967	17160	2516	11370	5872	14280	2574	38160	23900	2850	7974	30970	8601	7568	10380	4302	20190	2994	12310	23920	11920	7856	26890	4218	6991	31270	6407	3049	4209	5201	4891	8240	6437	4837	4841	18380	9664	8931	6646	5870	7382	29850	12450	5267	7061	5004	6777	5271	5629	5943	11560	9640	8076	3097	13810	8202	41870	6412	3877	10290	22460	7434	3425	21750	11970	4212	13090	5140	20850	7964	7709	20940	4354	8963	6217	7091	26950	7046	8244	5022	3628	26700	6186	5718	25020	7895	8044	3002	7725	6818	15050	9086	6116	7695	19970	12310	34450	17410	24320	9466	63140	36940	21730	6603	6917	7511	48560	20790	12720	2796	53520	8311	26170	2715	3477	6733	16310	2269	3320	6859	12540	7741	12520	3202	20190	4414	1615	11660	6214	7325	23760	8491	35740	11350	11560	6387	1988	6066	8718	6409	5558	22420	9597	3047	10130	12570	4373	6117	18330	17570	7426	30880	8611	4982	23260	9556	3464	9694	4606	15750	9199	14310	13930	10970	33040	9349	6222	9270	10700	21370	10910	2641	21440	6121	21530	6664	5531	6868	7741	1671	1897	23360	34340	5603	2896	5406	23990	5115	6912	44000	15080	15610	14720	5991	4251	4843	5855	7349	15280	1667	5382	7583	4525	18990	5563	4718	5913	8156	5480	8685	11390	14880	14800	22500	7436	7856	17100	8568	5375	6054	3433	21070	15970	20230	5202	3770	22170	5483	15980	13410	17640	11550	18480	5439	5557	3010	11030	10010	5433	11480	6325	17930	8050	4242	6452	1005	28980	16660	5726	4876	5205	25940	25870	25000	22310	17920	7187	7973	5873	7943	5034	8245	6402	4459	8952	4708	8167	4112	6536	14310	29220	17350	4958	8534	24340	6894	8278	24890	6115	5340	11500	10790	6668	5578	12310
2021-05-05	7246	5887	2907	8598	3160	8422	5969	15630	8307	9664	9809	11810	3867	23680	30610	19630	4285	17680	8259	8226	8265	13560	22640	22430	101700	7116	18240	9236	5980	26380	5010	25400	7118	49850	10830	6782	28750	12610	14590	30990	6052	24400	6262	9122	7148	9962	17320	13450	14590	5818	14170	7111	10180	26230	8227	10780	8372	7415	16050	12580	12720	3773	9155	20990	21800	6175	4933	4289	7972	17180	2521	11370	5873	14290	2576	38180	23910	2853	7977	30980	8606	7572	10390	4306	20200	2996	12330	23950	11930	7857	26900	4224	6998	31300	6416	3051	4211	5213	4894	8243	6440	4841	4847	18400	9670	8940	6648	5873	7385	29860	12460	5270	7064	5006	6787	5274	5633	5948	11580	9643	8078	3098	13820	8204	41910	6415	3879	10300	22470	7440	3428	21750	11970	4213	13100	5143	20860	7966	7715	20950	4355	8968	6220	7095	26950	7054	8246	5027	3633	26720	6190	5721	25040	7901	8065	3005	7731	6820	15050	9093	6120	7705	19980	12320	34490	17420	24330	9473	63200	36960	21740	6604	6923	7515	48570	20810	12730	2799	53570	8318	26170	2717	3480	6734	16320	2272	3322	6862	12550	7745	12530	3204	20200	4416	1621	11660	6218	7328	23780	8495	35760	11360	11570	6394	1989	6070	8723	6413	5560	22440	9612	3048	10130	12570	4375	6120	18330	17570	7428	30910	8619	4984	23280	9563	3465	9697	4613	15760	9204	14320	13940	10970	33050	9352	6222	9273	10710	21370	10920	2644	21450	6123	21540	6670	5533	6870	7744	1673	1899	23380	34360	5606	2898	5411	24000	5123	6915	44050	15090	15630	14720	5994	4256	4846	5859	7352	15280	1669	5390	7588	4528	19010	5566	4721	5916	8159	5485	8688	11390	14890	14810	22510	7438	7859	17110	8571	5377	6057	3436	21080	15980	20250	5206	3772	22180	5485	15980	13410	17640	11560	18490	5444	5559	3013	11040	10010	5438	11480	6329	17930	8053	4244	6455	1006	28990	16680	5730	4877	5209	25970	25890	25010	22320	17930	7192	7977	5876	7945	5038	8247	6408	4464	8954	4710	8178	4114	6545	14330	29230	17360	4960	8539	24340	6897	8284	24900	6118	5343	11500	10790	6670	5579	12320
2021-05-06	7254	5893	2908	8598	3162	8427	5971	15630	8310	9664	9811	11810	3868	23690	30610	19650	4285	17680	8264	8232	8268	13570	22650	22440	101700	7120	18250	9239	5983	26410	5015	25410	7122	49890	10840	6785	28760	12610	14600	31010	6053	24400	6264	9124	7151	9967	17330	13450	14610	5824	14170	7111	10180	26240	8229	10790	8374	7421	16060	12590	12730	3775	9160	21000	21800	6177	4936	4292	7978	17210	2526	11380	5876	14300	2577	38200	23920	2856	7980	30980	8611	7577	10390	4309	20210	2997	12350	23980	11940	7859	26900	4230	7005	31310	6426	3053	4213	5222	4897	8247	6444	4843	4853	18420	9672	8948	6649	5875	7389	29870	12460	5272	7066	5009	6795	5276	5639	5954	11600	9645	8078	3100	13820	8206	41950	6417	3880	10300	22470	7445	3432	21760	11980	4215	13110	5146	20870	7968	7722	20960	4357	8973	6222	7098	26960	7059	8248	5032	3638	26730	6193	5723	25040	7905	8084	3008	7737	6823	15060	9101	6128	7709	20000	12320	34520	17420	24340	9478	63260	36980	21750	6605	6929	7518	48580	20820	12730	2800	53620	8326	26180	2718	3482	6734	16330	2274	3325	6862	12560	7749	12530	3205	20210	4417	1627	11660	6221	7332	23800	8500	35770	11360	11580	6401	1990	6074	8727	6415	5563	22460	9627	3049	10140	12580	4377	6123	18340	17580	7431	30930	8625	4986	23290	9568	3466	9701	4620	15780	9207	14320	13950	10980	33060	9356	6222	9275	10710	21370	10920	2646	21460	6125	21560	6676	5535	6872	7745	1675	1900	23390	34380	5609	2900	5418	24010	5133	6917	44080	15100	15640	14730	5996	4261	4849	5864	7354	15290	1671	5397	7593	4530	19030	5569	4723	5919	8163	5488	8691	11390	14900	14810	22520	7441	7861	17110	8574	5379	6060	3440	21090	15980	20260	5209	3774	22180	5486	15990	13420	17650	11570	18500	5446	5560	3015	11040	10010	5441	11480	6332	17930	8054	4246	6457	1006	29000	16700	5733	4879	5213	26000	25890	25010	22330	17940	7198	7981	5877	7947	5043	8250	6415	4468	8957	4713	8188	4116	6548	14340	29240	17370	4963	8545	24350	6900	8289	24900	6121	5344	11510	10800	6672	5580	12340

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-04-30 to 2021-05-06

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rossendale	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-04-29	7180	5840	2901	8586	3143	8405	5943	15569	8277	9639	9793	11757	3857	23623	30499	19499	4273	17655	8235	8183	8245	13534	22553	22394	101398	7087	18192	9218	5969	26274	4972	25345	7094	49532	10820	6761	28645	12592	14554	30840	6035	24371	6253	9112	7135	9942	17277	13439	14548	5780	14121	7099	10130	26177	8218	10767	8359	7370	16006	12534	12704	3759	9119	20937	21742	6151	4916	4279	7936	17077	2476	11347	5837	14229	2569	38084	23821	2834	7956	30927	8581	7546	10363	4281	20150	2988	12227	23753	11889	7852	26821	4192	6938	31194	6371	3037	4202	5182	4880	8221	6419	4821	4803	18280	9643	8898	6638	5850	7372	29793	12439	5256	7049	4997	6723	5261	5589	5928	11453	9621	8070	3094	13786	8182	41644	6392	3867	10282	22418	7403	3397	21698	11962	4208	13048	5124	20824	7953	7676	20880	4340	8925	6212	7067	26910	7027	8229	4997	3601	26598	6161	5700	24941	7869	7971	2987	7684	6805	15020	9046	6086	7673	19880	12277	34235	17380	24276	9450	62889	36748	21698	6589	6897	7491	48489	20650	12707	2792	53238	8285	26139	2703	3464	6730	16275	2255	3305	6840	12504	7728	12490	3191	20124	4404	1600	11639	6192	7303	23664	8458	35637	11322	11490	6351	1986	6038	8676	6395	5550	22219	9526	3033	10091	12524	4358	6097	18240	17517	7421	30758	8580	4969	23168	9523	3461	9678	4569	15671	9183	14280	13898	10933	32955	9325	6222	9262	10650	21346	10882	2632	21365	6110	21397	6630	5519	6859	7728	1663	1891	23303	34251	5584	2890	5393	23945	5082	6904	43791	15056	15544	14682	5975	4226	4823	5830	7333	15227	1660	5364	7547	4510	18859	5550	4705	5895	8135	5464	8675	11365	14803	14781	22467	7426	7838	17067	8555	5357	6036	3415	21006	15927	20144	5191	3762	22122	5475	15955	13389	17588	11509	18423	5423	5554	3001	10997	9981	5409	11458	6307	17903	8040	4233	6443	1000	28907	16625	5709	4867	5183	25814	25797	24950	22236	17881	7167	7952	5857	7926	5002	8228	6392	4438	8938	4693	8115	4099	6516	14254	29133	17288	4943	8505	24296	6873	8250	24826	6097	5329	11487	10744	6661	5571	12277
2021-04-30	7186	5846	2902	8586	3145	8412	5945	15570	8281	9642	9796	11760	3859	23630	30510	19520	4274	17660	8238	8187	8249	13540	22560	22400	101400	7091	18200	9220	5972	26300	4976	25350	7098	49570	10820	6763	28660	12590	14560	30860	6037	24380	6254	9114	7137	9945	17280	13440	14560	5788	14130	7100	10140	26180	8219	10770	8360	7378	16020	12540	12710	3760	9122	20950	21750	6153	4919	4281	7940	17100	2480	11350	5839	14240	2570	38110	23830	2837	7960	30940	8586	7550	10370	4284	20160	2989	12250	23780	11900	7855	26830	4198	6943	31210	6381	3039	4203	5190	4883	8224	6423	4823	4808	18290	9646	8906	6639	5852	7375	29800	12440	5257	7052	5001	6732	5262	5592	5932	11470	9624	8071	3096	13790	8184	41690	6395	3868	10280	22430	7406	3399	21710	11970	4210	13060	5127	20830	7955	7680	20890	4342	8929	6214	7069	26920	7032	8231	5000	3606	26610	6163	5703	24950	7873	7988	2990	7686	6808	15030	9053	6093	7679	19900	12280	34280	17380	24280	9453	62940	36770	21700	6591	6902	7494	48500	20670	12710	2793	53270	8290	26140	2704	3465	6731	16280	2256	3307	6843	12520	7732	12500	3193	20130	4406	1607	11640	6194	7304	23680	8461	35650	11330	11500	6358	1988	6039	8679	6398	5553	22250	9539	3034	10100	12530	4360	6099	18250	17520	7425	30780	8586	4971	23180	9532	3462	9681	4577	15680	9187	14280	13910	10940	32960	9328	6225	9265	10660	21350	10890	2634	21370	6112	21410	6636	5521	6861	7730	1664	1892	23320	34260	5586	2891	5398	23950	5091	6908	43830	15060	15550	14690	5978	4232	4825	5832	7336	15240	1662	5369	7552	4512	18880	5552	4707	5898	8138	5465	8677	11370	14810	14780	22470	7428	7841	17070	8557	5358	6038	3417	21020	15930	20160	5193	3764	22130	5476	15960	13390	17590	11520	18430	5424	5556	3002	11000	9983	5413	11460	6310	17910	8042	4235	6445	1001	28910	16630	5712	4868	5185	25840	25810	24960	22250	17890	7170	7956	5859	7929	5007	8231	6399	4443	8939	4695	8124	4100	6519	14270	29140	17300	4943	8510	24300	6874	8256	24830	6099	5331	11490	10750	6664	5572	12280
2021-05-01	7198	5854	2903	8588	3149	8417	5950	15580	8283	9643	9798	11770	3860	23640	30520	19540	4275	17660	8241	8195	8250	13550	22580	22400	101500	7096	18200	9222	5974	26310	4981	25360	7101	49620	10820	6765	28680	12600	14560	30870	6038	24380	6255	9116	7138	9948	17290	13440	14560	5797	14130	7102	10140	26190	8220	10770	8362	7385	16020	12550	12710	3762	9125	20950	21760	6157	4921	4283	7945	17130	2485	11350	5841	14240	2572	38120	23840	2841	7963	30940	8591	7554	10370	4287	20170	2990	12270	23800	11900	7855	26840	4204	6953	31220	6392	3041	4204	5198	4883	8227	6426	4825	4816	18300	9649	8911	6639	5855	7377	29810	12440	5258	7054	5002	6744	5265	5598	5935	11490	9628	8072	3096	13800	8186	41750	6398	3869	10290	22430	7410	3403	21720	11970	4211	13070	5130	20830	7957	7685	20890	4344	8935	6215	7071	26920	7035	8235	5003	3613	26630	6167	5704	24970	7877	7997	2994	7690	6810	15030	9059	6098	7685	19910	12290	34310	17390	24290	9453	62980	36790	21700	6592	6905	7497	48510	20680	12710	2794	53310	8293	26150	2706	3467	6731	16290	2258	3310	6845	12520	7734	12500	3197	20140	4408	1610	11640	6197	7306	23700	8466	35670	11330	11520	6368	1989	6044	8684	6399	5554	22300	9553	3034	10100	12540	4362	6102	18270	17530	7426	30800	8591	4972	23190	9534	3463	9682	4588	15690	9190	14290	13910	10940	32980	9332	6227	9265	10670	21350	10890	2635	21380	6113	21430	6643	5523	6863	7732	1665	1893	23330	34270	5589	2893	5399	23960	5100	6910	43860	15070	15560	14690	5979	4240	4828	5837	7338	15240	1663	5372	7555	4515	18910	5555	4709	5901	8142	5467	8678	11370	14820	14790	22480	7429	7845	17080	8560	5361	6042	3421	21030	15940	20160	5194	3765	22130	5477	15960	13390	17600	11530	18440	5425	5557	3003	11010	9986	5417	11460	6314	17910	8044	4236	6445	1001	28920	16640	5714	4869	5187	25850	25820	24960	22260	17890	7172	7960	5862	7930	5010	8234	6401	4448	8940	4698	8136	4102	6521	14280	29140	17310	4945	8515	24310	6876	8261	24840	6101	5331	11490	10750	6666	5574	12290
2021-05-02	7206	5860	2904	8588	3152	8421	5953	15590	8287	9645	9801	11780	3862	23650	30530	19560	4276	17660	8245	8201	8256	13550	22580	22410	101500	7100	18210	9225	5976	26330	4986	25370	7105	49660	10820	6768	28690	12600	14560	30890	6040	24390	6255	9117	7140	9951	17300	13450	14570	5806	14140	7104	10150	26190	8221	10770	8363	7392	16030	12550	12710	3764	9127	20970	21760	6160	4924	4285	7950	17150	2490	11360	5847	14250	2574	38140	23860	2844	7965	30950	8596	7557	10370	4289	20170	2991	12290	23820	11910	7857	26850	4210	6962	31240	6401	3042	4205	5205	4884	8230	6430	4829	4823	18320	9652	8918	6641	5858	7379	29820	12450	5260	7056	5004	6754	5267	5606	5939	11510	9631	8073	3097	13800	8188	41810	6401	3871	10290	22440	7413	3407	21720	11970	4212	13070	5133	20840	7959	7691	20900	4347	8940	6216	7073	26930	7038	8237	5006	3618	26650	6171	5707	24980	7882	8005	2998	7693	6813	15040	9065	6102	7689	19920	12290	34340	17390	24300	9455	63020	36810	21710	6594	6908	7499	48520	20700	12720	2795	53350	8296	26160	2708	3468	6732	16300	2260	3313	6848	12530	7736	12510	3199	20150	4409	1615	11640	6201	7309	23720	8470	35680	11340	11530	6377	1990	6048	8689	6403	5555	22330	9567	3038	10100	12540	4363	6104	18280	17540	7428	30820	8597	4974	23200	9539	3463	9684	4596	15700	9193	14290	13920	10950	32990	9335	6229	9267	10680	21350	10900	2637	21390	6115	21450	6649	5525	6865	7734	1667	1894	23340	34270	5592	2895	5400	23970	5109	6912	43880	15070	15570	14700	5980	4246	4831	5843	7340	15250	1665	5376	7561	4518	18940	5557	4711	5903	8144	5472	8680	11380	14830	14790	22490	7430	7848	17080	8562	5365	6045	3425	21040	15940	20170	5196	3768	22140	5479	15970	13400	17600	11540	18450	5428	5558	3005	11010	9989	5421	11460	6317	17910	8046	4236	6446	1002	28930	16640	5717	4870	5188	25860	25820	24970	22270	17900	7175	7963	5866	7931	5015	8237	6403	4452	8941	4701	8146	4104	6526	14290	29150	17320	4946	8520	24310	6878	8266	24840	6103	5333	11500	10760	6667	5576	12300
2021-05-03	7216	5869	2905	8590	3155	8426	5956	15590	8291	9648	9804	11780	3863	23650	30540	19580	4277	17670	8248	8207	8260	13560	22600	22410	101500	7104	18220	9228	5978	26360	4990	25370	7108	49690	10830	6770	28710	12600	14560	30910	6042	24390	6256	9119	7142	9955	17300	13450	14580	5814	14140	7107	10150	26200	8222	10770	8364	7399	16030	12560	12710	3765	9130	20980	21770	6163	4926	4287	7953	17180	2494	11360	5852	14260	2575	38160	23870	2846	7967	30960	8600	7561	10380	4292	20180	2992	12300	23840	11920	7858	26860	4217	6972	31260	6414	3044	4205	5214	4886	8232	6433	4830	4831	18330	9657	8925	6642	5861	7382	29830	12450	5261	7058	5007	6764	5270	5610	5943	11540	9634	8075	3098	13800	8189	41870	6404	3873	10290	22440	7416	3409	21730	11970	4213	13080	5135	20840	7961	7697	20910	4349	8944	6218	7075	26930	7045	8240	5010	3624	26660	6175	5708	25000	7888	8014	3001	7697	6815	15040	9072	6107	7700	19930	12300	34380	17400	24310	9459	63090	36840	21720	6596	6913	7501	48530	20710	12720	2796	53380	8302	26160	2708	3470	6732	16310	2262	3315	6851	12540	7738	12510	3202	20160	4411	1622	11650	6205	7311	23730	8474	35700	11350	11540	6387	1992	6052	8693	6405	5557	22370	9582	3040	10110	12550	4365	6106	18290	17550	7429	30840	8604	4976	23220	9546	3464	9686	4605	15710	9198	14300	13930	10950	33000	9339	6231	9270	10700	21360	10900	2639	21400	6117	21460	6655	5527	6867	7736	1668	1896	23350	34280	5596	2898	5403	23980	5118	6914	43920	15080	15580	14700	5982	4253	4834	5847	7343	15250	1667	5381	7565	4520	18960	5562	4713	5906	8147	5475	8680	11380	14840	14790	22490	7431	7851	17080	8565	5369	6048	3430	21050	15950	20180	5198	3770	22140	5480	15980	13400	17610	11540	18460	5429	5560	3006	11020	9993	5425	11470	6320	17920	8048	4237	6446	1003	28940	16650	5718	4870	5190	25880	25830	24980	22280	17910	7177	7966	5871	7933	5018	8240	6408	4458	8943	4704	8157	4105	6530	14300	29160	17330	4947	8525	24320	6880	8272	24850	6106	5334	11500	10760	6668	5578	12310
2021-05-04	7227	5879	2906	8591	3158	8432	5958	15600	8296	9651	9805	11790	3864	23660	30560	19590	4277	17670	8252	8214	8264	13560	22610	22410	101600	7108	18230	9230	5979	26380	4994	25380	7110	49730	10830	6773	28720	12600	14570	30930	6043	24400	6257	9120	7144	9958	17310	13450	14590	5822	14150	7109	10160	26200	8223	10770	8365	7406	16040	12560	12710	3768	9132	20980	21780	6166	4928	4289	7957	17210	2498	11360	5856	14270	2577	38170	23890	2849	7969	30970	8603	7566	10380	4294	20190	2993	12330	23870	11920	7859	26870	4223	6981	31270	6424	3046	4206	5221	4889	8234	6436	4832	4838	18340	9659	8931	6644	5865	7385	29840	12450	5262	7060	5009	6775	5271	5615	5948	11560	9636	8076	3099	13810	8192	41930	6407	3875	10300	22450	7418	3412	21740	11970	4214	13090	5138	20840	7963	7702	20910	4351	8949	6219	7076	26930	7051	8242	5014	3631	26680	6178	5710	25010	7892	8024	3005	7702	6817	15050	9078	6113	7706	19940	12300	34410	17400	24320	9462	63140	36870	21720	6598	6918	7503	48540	20730	12720	2797	53430	8307	26170	2709	3472	6733	16310	2264	3317	6854	12550	7741	12520	3204	20170	4413	1630	11650	6208	7313	23750	8478	35710	11350	11550	6396	1993	6055	8696	6407	5559	22420	9597	3041	10110	12550	4366	6108	18300	17550	7431	30860	8610	4977	23230	9551	3465	9688	4614	15720	9202	14300	13940	10960	33010	9342	6233	9273	10710	21360	10910	2641	21420	6118	21480	6661	5529	6869	7737	1670	1897	23360	34290	5599	2900	5406	23990	5128	6916	43960	15090	15590	14700	5984	4261	4837	5851	7345	15260	1669	5385	7570	4522	18990	5565	4715	5908	8150	5478	8682	11380	14850	14800	22500	7432	7854	17090	8567	5370	6051	3434	21050	15960	20190	5199	3771	22150	5482	15980	13400	17620	11550	18460	5431	5561	3007	11020	9995	5429	11470	6324	17920	8050	4238	6447	1004	28950	16650	5720	4871	5192	25890	25850	24980	22290	17910	7180	7969	5876	7936	5022	8242	6413	4465	8944	4707	8168	4107	6534	14310	29170	17340	4948	8529	24320	6881	8277	24860	6109	5336	11500	10770	6670	5581	12310
2021-05-05	7238	5888	2907	8592	3161	8437	5960	15600	8301	9652	9808	11800	3866	23670	30570	19610	4278	17670	8255	8221	8268	13570	22620	22410	101600	7112	18240	9232	5981	26400	5000	25390	7114	49770	10830	6777	28740	12600	14570	30950	6045	24400	6258	9122	7146	9962	17320	13450	14600	5829	14150	7110	10160	26210	8224	10770	8365	7412	16050	12560	12710	3770	9135	20990	21780	6168	4930	4290	7961	17240	2503	11370	5859	14280	2579	38190	23900	2852	7973	30980	8607	7569	10380	4296	20190	2994	12350	23890	11930	7861	26880	4230	6990	31300	6436	3048	4207	5230	4893	8236	6440	4835	4846	18340	9664	8938	6645	5868	7388	29850	12450	5263	7064	5012	6786	5273	5621	5952	11580	9639	8077	3100	13810	8192	42000	6410	3877	10300	22450	7423	3415	21750	11970	4216	13090	5140	20850	7965	7707	20920	4353	8953	6221	7078	26940	7057	8245	5018	3637	26690	6182	5714	25030	7897	8035	3009	7706	6819	15050	9084	6119	7714	19950	12310	34450	17410	24330	9464	63210	36900	21730	6599	6923	7506	48550	20740	12730	2799	53480	8315	26170	2710	3475	6733	16320	2267	3320	6856	12560	7744	12520	3207	20170	4414	1636	11650	6211	7315	23770	8481	35720	11360	11560	6406	1994	6058	8699	6409	5561	22460	9613	3042	10120	12560	4368	6110	18310	17560	7434	30880	8616	4979	23240	9555	3465	9690	4623	15720	9207	14300	13940	10970	33020	9345	6235	9276	10720	21360	10910	2643	21430	6120	21500	6668	5531	6871	7740	1671	1898	23380	34300	5603	2903	5408	23990	5138	6918	44000	15090	15600	14710	5987	4269	4839	5855	7348	15260	1670	5390	7575	4526	19020	5567	4717	5910	8154	5482	8682	11390	14860	14800	22510	7433	7856	17090	8571	5374	6054	3438	21060	15960	20190	5202	3772	22160	5483	15990	13400	17620	11560	18470	5434	5562	3008	11030	9997	5433	11470	6327	17930	8052	4239	6448	1005	28950	16660	5724	4872	5194	25910	25860	24990	22300	17920	7183	7972	5881	7937	5026	8244	6417	4471	8945	4710	8179	4108	6539	14320	29170	17350	4949	8534	24330	6883	8281	24860	6113	5338	11510	10770	6671	5583	12320
2021-05-06	7251	5897	2908	8593	3164	8442	5963	15600	8303	9653	9811	11810	3867	23680	30580	19630	4278	17680	8259	8228	8272	13580	22640	22420	101700	7116	18240	9235	5984	26420	5005	25400	7117	49810	10830	6779	28750	12600	14580	30980	6047	24410	6258	9123	7148	9965	17330	13460	14610	5836	14160	7111	10170	26210	8224	10780	8366	7419	16060	12570	12720	3772	9137	21000	21790	6171	4933	4292	7963	17270	2507	11370	5863	14280	2580	38210	23910	2854	7974	30990	8612	7573	10390	4297	20200	2995	12360	23910	11940	7862	26890	4238	7001	31310	6449	3049	4208	5239	4896	8238	6443	4836	4853	18350	9667	8946	6646	5870	7392	29850	12460	5265	7066	5015	6798	5275	5629	5957	11610	9641	8078	3101	13820	8193	42070	6413	3878	10300	22460	7425	3417	21750	11970	4218	13100	5142	20850	7967	7713	20920	4356	8958	6223	7079	26950	7062	8247	5021	3643	26700	6185	5715	25040	7901	8047	3013	7711	6821	15060	9089	6124	7719	19970	12310	34490	17410	24340	9466	63280	36930	21730	6600	6927	7508	48560	20750	12730	2800	53520	8321	26180	2711	3478	6733	16330	2269	3322	6859	12570	7746	12520	3210	20180	4416	1643	11650	6215	7317	23780	8485	35740	11360	11560	6416	1996	6061	8702	6411	5564	22500	9628	3043	10120	12560	4369	6111	18320	17570	7436	30900	8621	4981	23260	9562	3466	9692	4632	15730	9211	14310	13950	10970	33030	9347	6237	9278	10740	21360	10910	2645	21440	6122	21520	6674	5533	6874	7741	1673	1899	23390	34310	5606	2906	5410	24000	5149	6921	44030	15100	15610	14720	5988	4275	4841	5860	7350	15270	1672	5394	7578	4528	19050	5569	4719	5912	8157	5484	8683	11390	14870	14800	22520	7434	7858	17100	8573	5378	6056	3443	21070	15970	20200	5204	3774	22170	5484	15990	13410	17630	11570	18480	5435	5564	3009	11040	9999	5437	11470	6330	17930	8054	4240	6449	1005	28960	16670	5728	4873	5196	25920	25870	25000	22320	17930	7186	7976	5885	7939	5029	8247	6420	4477	8947	4713	8192	4110	6542	14340	29180	17360	4950	8539	24340	6885	8287	24870	6116	5339	11510	10780	6673	5585	12330

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-04-29 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-04-29