COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-10-03 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-10-03

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-10-03

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-08-262021-08-282021-07-082021-09-21 --2021-08-262021-07-112021-08-092021-08-252021-08-282021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-09-202021-07-062021-07-082021-07-082021-09-19 --2021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-122021-07-0712-292021-09-2112-272021-07-082021-09-132021-07-072021-05-102021-07-062021-01-012021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-09-222021-07-072021-07-072021-09-202021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-09-15 --2021-07-282021-07-082021-07-082021-06-202021-09-212021-07-072021-08-252021-07-072021-08-102021-07-072021-08-262021-08-272021-07-062021-08-102021-08-26 --2021-07-072021-07-072021-08-092021-07-072021-07-072021-08-252021-08-252021-07-072021-09-222021-09-122021-07-062021-08-282021-08-102021-07-072021-07-022021-07-072021-09-202021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-08 --2021-09-202021-01-02 --2021-08-132021-07-07 --2021-08-032021-07-072021-08-162021-06-212021-07-082021-08-28 --2021-08-102021-08-182021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-06-13 --2021-08-222021-07-062021-07-072021-09-202021-07-07 --2021-08-082021-09-202021-07-092021-07-072021-07-052021-07-062021-08-102021-08-252021-07-08 --2021-08-132021-08-282021-09-122021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-042021-07-072021-08-252021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-09-152021-07-062021-08-242021-09-202021-07-072021-09-202021-07-092021-07-062021-09-202021-07-072021-09-192021-07-052021-08-162021-08-152021-07-082021-09-212021-07-072021-07-042021-08-252021-07-072021-09-082021-07-062021-07-102021-09-202021-06-232021-08-232021-07-082021-09-202021-08-082021-07-072021-07-10 --2021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-09-2012-272021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-01-032021-07-032021-07-082021-09-192021-07-212021-08-3012-262021-08-252021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-08-102021-07-102021-09-132021-09-2212-082021-07-082021-08-09 --2021-07-072021-08-112021-08-102021-07-072021-08-252021-07-072021-07-072021-09-202021-08-232021-09-132021-07-082021-07-062021-07-032021-07-072021-07-302021-09-222021-08-162021-08-262021-08-092021-07-072021-07-052021-07-082021-07-252021-08-252021-09-212021-07-062021-07-072021-07-042021-09-222021-09-152021-07-082021-07-062021-07-262021-07-072021-07-072021-08-282021-07-072021-08-292021-06-22 --2021-07-072021-06-222021-08-052021-07-072021-01-012021-09-072021-07-062021-08-252021-07-082021-07-072021-09-202021-07-072021-08-252021-09-142021-09-122021-07-072021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-06-282021-07-082021-07-082021-09-192021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-252021-08-082021-07-072021-07-062021-07-0612-232021-08-092021-06-282021-09-222021-07-082021-07-0807-21 --2021-08-112021-07-062021-08-092021-08-182021-07-072021-08-04 --2021-07-072021-08-092021-09-22 -- --2021-08-232021-07-212021-07-082021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-06-272021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-09-192021-09-222021-07-072021-08-252021-07-072021-07-062021-07-04 --2021-07-082021-07-052021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-09-142021-07-072021-07-072021-06-222021-07-082021-08-092021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-08-192021-08-112021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-09-222021-08-092021-07-07 --2021-07-082021-07-072021-09-212021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-092021-07-062021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-07 --2021-07-072021-08-242021-08-092021-08-252021-07-072021-09-202021-08-252021-08-092021-08-232021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-09-212021-08-232021-06-292021-07-072021-08-242021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-09-222021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-05
Peak daily increment 178 221 51 101 90 100 90 99 199 127 93 63 156 57 93 260 235 139 152 144 210 103 378 177 1250 90 157 159 68 61 208 42 484 107 478 103 91 175 68 109 218 619 60 258 94 72 97 74 161 205 72 159 67 60 333 115 191 100 102 227 47 127 170 65 93 243 82 73 69 121 575 70 141 15 100 115 72 714 41 606 377 38 104 230 122 140 92 88 246 202 400 47 272 137 184 189 133 135 183 62 122 88 112 157 296 73 115 61 29 97 145 105 58 110 128 188 66 171 422 120 67 56 82 274 123 957 95 59 63 113 163 69 94 230 86 66 157 89 152 61 145 143 92 146 54 69 151 182 82 73 209 197 87 84 130 137 71 138 56 51 87 189 84 71 246 93 318 311 301 117 705 284 51 213 95 99 119 727 120 120 41 47 442 96 169 41 120 106 124 72 101 119 114 274 117 197 49 60 35 179 94 116 384 105 155 141 141 166 84 93 231 78 70 630 187 34 203 228 44 91 126 322 87 264 146 37 255 8 131 57 113 145 343 207 84 104 88 120 297 77 114 293 275 47 140 66 213 75 69 49 208 125 47 116 69 20 30 253 255 94 83 123 195 75 96 482 25 66 277 92 119 49 72 345 86 66 475 58 68 77 92 107 75 303 200 152 243 69 131 141 148 74 56 92 243 339 242 69 428 58 145 101 254 151 219 83 60 143 137 116 92 42 92 78 100 105 131 96 61 226 59 64 136 79 352 191 158 312 195 110 73 70 84 102 101 70 159 94 80 214 69 74 138 382 350 64 87 243 59 100 185 99 63 78 76 117 120 74 138
Days since peak 38 36 87 12 38 84 55 39 36 88 89 89 13 89 87 87 14 89 88 89 88 89 83 88 278 12 280 87 20 88 146 89 275 88 88 88 11 88 88 13 88 88 89 89 88 88 90 88 89 18 67 87 87 105 12 88 39 88 54 88 38 37 89 54 38 88 88 55 88 88 39 39 88 11 21 89 36 54 88 93 88 13 88 88 88 89 87 13 274 51 88 61 88 48 104 87 36 54 46 88 88 88 112 42 89 88 13 88 56 13 86 88 90 89 54 39 87 51 36 21 88 88 89 91 88 39 88 87 87 88 87 88 18 89 40 13 88 13 86 89 13 88 14 90 48 49 87 12 88 91 39 88 25 89 85 13 102 41 87 13 56 88 85 88 88 87 13 280 88 87 88 273 92 87 14 74 34 281 39 88 88 88 87 54 85 20 11 299 87 55 88 53 54 88 39 88 88 13 41 20 87 89 92 88 65 11 48 38 55 88 90 87 70 39 12 89 88 91 11 18 87 89 69 88 88 36 88 35 103 88 103 59 88 275 26 89 39 87 88 13 88 39 19 21 88 89 90 88 97 87 87 14 88 88 88 39 56 88 89 89 284 55 97 11 87 87 439 53 89 55 46 88 60 88 55 11 41 74 87 89 88 88 87 98 88 88 88 88 88 88 14 11 88 39 88 89 91 87 90 88 88 88 19 88 88 103 87 55 88 89 88 45 53 88 89 88 88 11 55 88 87 88 12 88 89 88 86 89 88 87 88 88 88 88 40 55 39 88 13 39 55 41 88 88 87 12 41 96 88 40 88 89 88 11 88 88 89 87 90
Last total 18331 17144 5846 11580 15305 8943 16588 13748 5982 28616 14934 17308 14340 21052 6919 30972 46575 38157 8651 24901 16191 15530 18727 23049 46140 32229 161058 13980 28776 20639 9034 10326 44615 8139 46083 12732 81400 16652 11679 41706 10293 19032 30813 60204 10707 37807 11931 13455 13603 16060 28956 22336 29046 11556 24192 12877 15395 41842 14363 19536 11874 16182 29984 4277 23246 20777 9195 15840 42347 41107 11021 9922 8839 15557 53136 5861 20396 816 10455 7443 10486 46181 5858 74126 44237 5760 13432 47662 16566 14715 15404 8666 10500 33600 6387 25362 45954 27196 11554 43408 11228 19269 46875 14266 6670 11114 13642 9545 15700 13494 9749 9268 12594 37647 15421 17073 10302 12872 5255 13781 40588 18090 9276 14184 12732 16382 9965 10020 14533 35011 17250 11841 6287 10039 28245 15669 91232 12741 7807 14927 10675 33638 13378 8715 33631 19155 8781 22639 10759 31537 12008 16987 31207 9018 15443 9929 12501 36802 15442 13312 10868 13157 40018 12929 11128 36915 16110 13765 8813 12772 4886 12441 25448 15443 12751 12803 37510 19649 60319 27268 40961 17872 117200 57075 8434 34411 12602 12755 15771 79229 31428 19778 6151 5433 89826 15476 36605 5432 8742 9830 25068 6037 6793 13267 21956 15225 23543 10522 32727 7830 7180 4045 19948 12832 14305 45729 15446 48382 18406 22942 15159 6890 11343 21247 12265 11039 50817 19541 5459 20093 27618 8417 13083 29368 36776 13633 49865 16992 8221 39094 327 17957 8227 15069 11914 26713 26204 25759 9367 23081 19202 44159 19582 10676 16546 24925 33921 8728 19487 5231 35112 9901 11086 7795 37919 13699 8976 14431 11730 3412 4037 42284 51754 11400 7669 11659 40712 10285 12271 77194 667 29952 21756 28855 11882 11195 8109 12331 13042 30640 5792 9234 13868 9366 41807 10532 9094 11646 14985 12271 13998 23520 28494 22284 36772 11893 15616 28062 15934 11244 10089 8585 40667 29135 34746 11289 8817 42017 9167 24821 17915 31289 22742 34227 10879 9235 9565 21340 15475 11331 6757 15825 11024 24393 13913 12558 10809 4094 42652 32818 11064 8828 13838 10617 49812 40279 35961 39076 30445 15348 12618 10633 13595 8963 14084 12641 3399 12325 15330 9034 20389 8841 12760 23817 51169 39846 10088 15484 41814 10863 15884 38711 10752 9697 17863 11386 18328 14060 10195 22491
Last daily increment 73 102 25 77 145 31 87 75 11 141 46 84 42 148 53 39 128 171 61 72 130 91 117 86 181 68 368 60 48 74 23 61 97 20 129 53 277 75 65 69 11 18 80 88 43 85 69 25 63 30 69 36 164 18 46 90 19 106 70 63 36 83 98 11 76 100 35 67 260 187 78 9 55 93 101 15 106 4 12 39 60 343 14 218 181 23 40 100 96 49 40 65 23 132 41 62 177 165 21 167 47 70 110 48 70 65 48 50 79 65 23 81 31 128 47 96 39 72 23 88 107 29 41 53 72 74 36 78 77 162 58 22 17 37 84 78 198 15 43 31 42 73 82 20 53 81 38 34 61 61 28 143 80 97 26 18 55 55 120 58 71 37 87 87 80 112 116 32 17 112 5 77 40 26 123 57 83 67 232 30 64 64 426 119 21 58 80 46 70 149 86 66 11 23 167 71 73 27 80 5 57 27 52 45 86 76 44 30 116 32 6 35 49 55 68 113 76 52 27 88 34 39 75 53 63 57 125 122 21 59 107 32 69 170 186 58 84 115 42 100 0 57 39 27 46 153 135 89 9 48 86 78 45 68 88 58 46 52 77 20 85 31 26 24 166 73 32 81 37 25 16 86 119 71 36 42 105 60 63 220 4 183 63 129 57 23 27 61 75 66 34 33 91 77 144 66 37 62 34 66 57 65 88 50 46 83 119 77 99 74 35 58 203 56 152 92 24 105 31 77 21 51 88 123 49 39 63 121 79 72 16 24 37 58 59 54 26 34 47 247 64 30 74 51 196 150 63 94 112 118 37 62 58 84 47 49 22 34 60 68 108 45 96 48 140 263 89 87 158 41 120 123 25 45 34 74 58 79 71 66
Last week 524 716 157 494 633 173 558 477 174 750 358 543 300 911 284 260 767 1036 372 386 544 523 592 537 1156 414 2296 423 313 427 192 326 595 196 742 287 1737 410 420 428 118 418 512 563 301 566 378 181 371 193 458 741 954 162 368 538 194 1540 405 816 184 520 671 153 477 491 154 404 1596 1139 386 145 347 515 841 110 587 58 367 296 351 2178 146 1411 1180 185 308 593 498 269 225 442 399 928 312 477 1207 1015 164 910 382 479 672 370 325 364 335 317 402 434 196 392 289 904 341 598 162 528 142 477 582 244 234 396 336 504 250 420 396 1028 486 168 118 215 556 414 1582 97 271 170 342 449 391 405 375 492 299 283 383 429 200 727 482 431 171 103 373 428 787 335 416 322 546 429 388 623 675 219 149 565 237 554 301 239 724 377 614 440 1618 348 416 387 2609 824 122 380 481 261 436 1068 502 362 89 161 1025 403 505 193 576 149 410 211 318 281 533 398 326 205 752 203 199 255 513 420 428 745 507 489 480 524 374 330 357 336 425 364 1173 976 140 313 611 217 472 1072 1016 377 654 708 236 584 6 422 557 207 299 862 748 611 295 375 386 474 302 381 422 464 785 223 463 108 446 192 208 119 969 517 181 449 226 123 118 668 789 399 224 335 775 316 353 1503 24 1157 388 809 447 298 166 451 469 302 195 310 549 457 974 371 277 300 285 462 297 359 808 387 383 302 648 559 681 392 166 253 1202 404 804 619 170 667 199 411 142 904 467 817 300 222 371 699 397 403 88 124 306 332 375 286 511 203 437 1214 416 206 645 318 1200 903 402 580 695 609 220 327 323 409 353 214 136 259 335 424 713 285 488 325 826 1516 383 493 727 228 495 801 139 243 371 366 354 386 384 398
Previous peak date07-2107-2112-272021-07-062021-07-0607-2112-2112-2707-2112-2112-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2812-232021-07-0412-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1111-0212-2110-0712-2211-0212-2710-1310-1312-072021-01-0710-1511-1311-0212-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2811-0212-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3010-2712-0710-2612-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-21 --11-0212-2212-2812-252021-07-0712-212021-01-0412-2112-2112-3007-2107-2112-26 --12-2912-2612-2712-2912-2411-0212-272021-07-0712-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-272021-07-0610-272021-01-1310-0110-1412-2712-0712-2607-2107-2112-2707-2112-2512-2907-2112-2412-2111-0907-212021-07-0707-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-06 --07-2112-2312-2712-2207-2112-2512-1812-2510-1510-2912-2607-2112-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-272021-07-0712-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-2212-29 --12-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0107-2112-28 --12-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2110-2709-2912-292021-01-0611-0211-0212-2112-272021-07-0711-0212-2109-2812-2712-2212-2112-3111-022021-01-0212-222021-07-052021-07-07 --12-2112-2112-2612-2212-2112-2112-3107-2112-2212-2712-0607-2112-0712-2812-2911-0211-0312-2712-0612-2707-2112-0810-1410-2612-2612-2107-2111-0112-2112-2911-042021-07-052021-07-0712-2712-212021-01-0111-0212-2511-0210-22 --12-2712-0612-2607-212021-01-0611-0211-0212-0611-0212-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2207-2112-0612-2812-2112-2710-1912-1010-1112-1310-1812-3012-2810-1312-252021-01-262021-01-0211-0212-2910-3107-2112-2112-3112-2912-2211-02 --12-3012-2512-2512-2107-2112-2112-2112-2712-26 --2021-01-0412-222021-07-0707-2112-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-252021-07-0712-2207-2112-2812-2711-0112-2712-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2510-182021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-1912-2212-2312-2712-06 --12-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-20 --07-2111-0212-0707-2112-2212-2312-2210-1612-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-2512-3012-2112-3012-2611-02
Previous peak daily increment 616 365 61 115 105 295 134 73 119 260 170 110 171 178 78 477 589 276 58 326 128 110 271 233 262 426 1226 75 166 98 95 58 234 50 363 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 1197 107 508 94 186 62 122 160 211 135 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 294 268 52 197 282 283 59 91 71 65 1272 83 243 35 53 94 285 34 553 288 53 181 598 151 69 189 69 86 164 25 206 248 193 118 322 226 710 536 308 64 52 383 76 160 106 191 73 235 204 102 163 147 117 56 146 593 273 97 74 475 90 82 94 687 150 125 54 43 127 82 1766 92 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 219 84 201 57 401 172 103 338 101 106 136 120 476 101 159 52 442 57 116 452 143 83 248 134 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 153 428 107 1449 479 104 456 79 230 102 480 273 200 90 36 2237 92 419 40 71 298 37 61 153 186 105 213 302 361 79 62 66 191 105 63 2429 85 723 190 212 192 23 53 137 105 51 1007 105 58 122 107 77 96 277 158 121 1343 90 68 257 125 48 108 230 154 139 354 43 150 174 623 105 81 176 459 286 52 188 39 194 139 65 96 198 80 85 67 174 36 25 406 450 81 152 82 403 65 131 573 209 244 167 97 226 111 102 67 181 42 86 73 876 95 79 108 80 66 102 115 247 293 450 131 156 219 94 77 112 149 189 138 197 73 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 172 56 109 46 141 352 90 44 138 122 360 139 51 101 559 171 90 110 120 84 250 329 449 390 227 259 138 117 160 69 154 87 307 166 42 376 67 115 217 319 265 83 148 430 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 594
Low between peaks 0 -1 -3 24 0 3 1 -26 5 -11 2 -7 -16 -8 3 -2 114 -28 -12 2 -14 -12 9 3 303 -1 55 -10 0 -14 17 2 23 -8 31 -4 -5 -39 -11 1 -1 -18 -8 -8 -10 -16 -1 3 3 1 2 -18 -6 -64 5 -9 2 -2 3 -1 -7 -11 -12 -3 -14 -3 -6 0 4 -11 -4 -9 1 1 2 -33 -1 -13 -20 16 -8 -4 -11 -5 1 41 53 11 2 -14 -4 -48 -3 -6 -2 -7 -3 -6 -12 -2 -5 -1 -5 1 -18 -6 0 -4 -80 -12 1 0 -4 0 4 -5 1 -7 -5 -9 -7 2 -7 -13 -8 -2 -8 -25 -21 1 -27 -25 27 -5 1 -12 -2 -17 5 2 -1 -8 -12 -20 -9 -1 2 -27 1 -1 12 -5 3 -2 -7 -5 -5 -5 -3 -12 -3 27 21 2 -5 41 120 1 -18 35 -8 2 58 7 -22 0 0 27 1 -45 11 31 2 -10 -10 6 2 5 -15 0 -3 0 0 1 -11 1 15 -15 4 2 8 -8 -5 -9 -3 -7 -6 -7 5 -6 -16 5 22 41 -3 -7 -4 5 -5 1 6 1 3 1 5 -74 37 0 0 -8 1 -1 -52 -13 -2 1 0 -3 0 3 0 1 -6 0 -2 0 1 -14 -6 -8 2 -1 -4 -4 -20 -44 3 -6 23 4 -3 -10 -2 -3 -4 -23 3 -7 -11 -5 -1 2 -5 -10 2 -2 -3 -17 -2 -6 -40 -13 27 1 -1 -3 4 -5 -12 1 -4 -13 -41 3 -9 7 -8 -5 -6 -13 -3 -7 -4 -9 2 -6 -11 -1 1 5 -18 -3 1 -18 16 -8 -23 -4 -6 -4 4 -12 -13 1 -7 -2 1 -4 -2 -1 -11 7 5 -37 -9 -5 -69 0 -11 -20 -2 -5 2 1 0 -3 -6 -48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-10-04 to 2021-10-10

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-10-03 18331 17144 5846 11580 15305 8943 16588 13748 5982 28616 14934 17308 14340 21052 6919 30972 46575 38157 8651 24901 16191 15530 18727 23049 46140 32229 161058 13980 28776 20639 9034 10326 44615 8139 46083 12732 81400 16652 11679 41706 10293 19032 30813 60204 10707 37807 11931 13455 13603 16060 28956 22336 29046 11556 24192 12877 15395 41842 14363 19536 11874 16182 29984 4277 23246 20777 9195 15840 42347 41107 11021 9922 8839 15557 53136 5861 20396 816 10455 7443 10486 46181 5858 74126 44237 5760 13432 47662 16566 14715 15404 8666 10500 33600 6387 25362 45954 27196 11554 43408 11228 19269 46875 14266 6670 11114 13642 9545 15700 13494 9749 9268 12594 37647 15421 17073 10302 12872 5255 13781 40588 18090 9276 14184 12732 16382 9965 10020 14533 35011 17250 11841 6287 10039 28245 15669 91232 12741 7807 14927 10675 33638 13378 8715 33631 19155 8781 22639 10759 31537 12008 16987 31207 9018 15443 9929 12501 36802 15442 13312 10868 13157 40018 12929 11128 36915 16110 13765 8813 12772 4886 12441 25448 15443 12751 12803 37510 19649 60319 27268 40961 17872 117200 57075 8434 34411 12602 12755 15771 79229 31428 19778 6151 5433 89826 15476 36605 5432 8742 9830 25068 6037 6793 13267 21956 15225 23543 10522 32727 7830 7180 4045 19948 12832 14305 45729 15446 48382 18406 22942 15159 6890 11343 21247 12265 11039 50817 19541 5459 20093 27618 8417 13083 29368 36776 13633 49865 16992 8221 39094 327 17957 8227 15069 11914 26713 26204 25759 9367 23081 19202 44159 19582 10676 16546 24925 33921 8728 19487 5231 35112 9901 11086 7795 37919 13699 8976 14431 11730 3412 4037 42284 51754 11400 7669 11659 40712 10285 12271 77194 667 29952 21756 28855 11882 11195 8109 12331 13042 30640 5792 9234 13868 9366 41807 10532 9094 11646 14985 12271 13998 23520 28494 22284 36772 11893 15616 28062 15934 11244 10089 8585 40667 29135 34746 11289 8817 42017 9167 24821 17915 31289 22742 34227 10879 9235 9565 21340 15475 11331 6757 15825 11024 24393 13913 12558 10809 4094 42652 32818 11064 8828 13838 10617 49812 40279 35961 39076 30445 15348 12618 10633 13595 8963 14084 12641 3399 12325 15330 9034 20389 8841 12760 23817 51169 39846 10088 15484 41814 10863 15884 38711 10752 9697 17863 11386 18328 14060 10195 22491
2021-10-04 18400 17190 5877 11670 15380 8977 16670 13830 6045 28740 14990 17390 14370 21180 6957 31020 46700 38420 8710 24960 16280 15620 18760 23130 46330 32300 161500 14120 28820 20710 9050 10370 44720 8164 46220 12780 81690 16720 11740 41810 10310 19240 30900 60400 10750 37900 11990 13490 13660 16120 29020 22710 29200 11570 24240 12920 15440 42120 14430 19780 11900 16260 30100 4361 23320 20860 9226 15910 42800 41320 11080 9980 8910 15660 53640 5883 20520 820 10640 7492 10580 46540 5884 74540 44430 5789 13480 47770 16650 14790 15450 8736 10570 33740 6434 25440 46180 27520 11580 43600 11330 19430 47010 14300 6766 11170 13690 9592 15770 13570 9820 9371 12640 37800 15480 17180 10330 12970 5278 13830 40680 18130 9316 14240 12780 16560 10000 10130 14610 35460 17340 11890 6310 10080 28400 15750 91530 12760 7848 14960 10730 33710 13440 8860 33690 19220 8804 22690 10830 31610 12040 17140 31290 9086 15470 9960 12550 36870 15690 13360 10930 13320 40120 13000 11180 37050 16280 13810 8898 12860 4954 12520 25490 15490 12940 12860 37610 19720 60570 27400 41040 18030 117500 57350 8464 34470 12710 12800 15840 79570 31510 19840 6168 5457 90020 15560 36680 5463 8822 9850 25140 6062 6834 13310 22050 15290 23600 10570 32840 7859 7219 4078 19990 12900 14370 45920 15520 48460 18510 23020 15250 6932 11400 21370 12320 11110 51310 19700 5494 20160 27730 8454 13200 29570 36980 13680 49970 17100 8254 39200 330 18030 8324 15100 12070 26720 26320 25850 9529 23200 19270 44240 19630 10750 16620 25070 34490 8769 19560 5251 35170 9930 11110 7824 38080 13790 9004 14500 11770 3431 4057 42390 51970 11460 7710 11710 40950 10340 12330 77490 669 30200 21820 28990 11940 11220 8139 12400 13120 30710 5822 9286 13950 9443 42090 10590 9141 11700 15030 12340 14080 23580 28500 22340 36830 11940 15720 28190 16070 11330 10120 8651 40860 29260 34880 11420 8847 42200 9202 24890 17970 31350 22840 34400 10950 9272 9619 21460 15540 11390 6776 15850 11070 24440 13980 12610 10890 4124 42720 33000 11130 8862 13950 10670 50010 40400 36020 39180 30550 15470 12650 10680 13650 9045 14140 12690 3423 12500 15380 9083 20500 8884 12840 23890 51340 40080 10150 15560 41970 10900 15960 38860 10780 9734 17970 11470 18380 14150 10250 22550
2021-10-05 18490 17250 5903 11770 15470 9027 16730 13910 6099 28870 15030 17420 14410 21290 6960 31080 46860 38610 8747 25020 16300 15720 18760 23170 46520 32370 161900 14210 28870 20830 9076 10380 44820 8198 46350 12800 82020 16750 11770 41900 10350 19360 30980 60520 10790 38010 12020 13530 13710 16160 29090 22930 29390 11580 24280 13000 15480 42390 14510 20000 11920 16350 30230 4409 23400 20900 9249 15970 43130 41480 11130 10000 8992 15770 53990 5934 20660 820 10770 7549 10650 46910 5910 74810 44600 5824 13510 47910 16720 14830 15490 8818 10670 33830 6482 25530 46370 27730 11620 43760 11420 19560 47100 14360 6886 11210 13730 9620 15820 13620 9890 9446 12710 37980 15550 17280 10340 13110 5306 13830 40750 18170 9350 14270 12810 16680 10030 10220 14720 35800 17520 11930 6339 10150 28520 15840 91850 12810 7868 15000 10790 33790 13480 8985 33740 19260 8808 22750 10900 31690 12060 17300 31380 9086 15540 9970 12590 36940 15840 13390 10970 13450 40250 13100 11180 37140 16420 13840 8947 12930 5014 12600 25560 15550 13080 12900 37750 19750 60740 27480 41150 18110 117800 57570 8481 34580 12840 12840 15930 79810 31620 19900 6198 5466 90200 15630 36750 5497 8897 9890 25200 6064 6883 13330 22160 15380 23700 10640 32910 7875 7274 4087 20080 12940 14400 46070 15560 48550 18690 23100 15320 6941 11450 21450 12330 11180 51730 19890 5525 20230 27840 8493 13300 29780 37170 13700 50100 17200 8274 39290 339 18110 8461 15150 12180 26800 26410 25930 9631 23280 19330 44340 19700 10830 16680 25190 34810 8816 19620 5268 35240 9970 11130 7842 38250 13890 9029 14540 11810 3440 4078 42490 52120 11510 7761 11740 41100 10410 12380 77740 670 30520 21870 29120 11960 11290 8176 12440 13210 30800 5854 9342 14030 9514 42350 10610 9189 11740 15080 12390 14130 23640 28550 22380 36920 11940 15830 28300 16190 11410 10170 8690 40980 29350 35000 11540 8875 42330 9237 24940 18010 31490 22940 34520 11000 9301 9664 21550 15570 11410 6805 15870 11100 24490 14030 12670 10960 4147 42800 33190 11180 8899 14120 10730 50160 40540 36100 39280 30590 15580 12680 10720 13680 9150 14200 12750 3440 12630 15420 9118 20670 8912 12880 23970 51470 40190 10160 15610 42100 10920 15990 39000 10820 9745 18060 11550 18430 14220 10260 22610
2021-10-06 18560 17310 5931 11860 15550 9069 16790 13990 6139 29000 15080 17470 14450 21400 6978 31130 47000 38780 8793 25070 16350 15810 18760 23240 46730 32440 162300 14290 28920 20920 9096 10410 44920 8227 46480 12840 82330 16790 11820 41970 10380 19450 31060 60610 10830 38110 12060 13560 13760 16200 29140 23130 29560 11590 24330 13070 15520 42680 14590 20160 11950 16440 30350 4452 23480 20960 9275 16040 43470 41670 11190 10030 9068 15870 54270 5970 20790 821 10870 7602 10720 47270 5937 75050 44780 5855 13550 48030 16800 14880 15530 8893 10750 33940 6530 25620 46550 27910 11650 43910 11480 19680 47200 14400 6992 11250 13770 9656 15870 13680 9920 9506 12760 38140 15600 17380 10370 13230 5331 13860 40830 18210 9386 14320 12840 16780 10050 10290 14820 36050 17660 11960 6365 10200 28620 15920 92060 12840 7897 15040 10840 33860 13530 9065 33800 19310 8822 22810 10970 31760 12080 17450 31460 9114 15580 9990 12630 37010 15990 13420 11010 13540 40360 13180 11200 37240 16540 13870 8983 13010 5064 12680 25620 15600 13210 12950 37870 19800 60940 27560 41240 18180 118200 57740 8493 34660 12960 12880 16010 79990 31710 19950 6223 5482 90360 15680 36820 5530 8976 9920 25270 6076 6930 13360 22260 15450 23780 10700 33000 7897 7322 4106 20150 13000 14450 46200 15620 48640 18840 23170 15370 6966 11500 21520 12360 11230 52020 20060 5553 20300 27940 8530 13390 29980 37320 13730 50220 17300 8300 39390 346 18180 8581 15190 12240 26900 26510 26020 9698 23360 19390 44430 19760 10910 16750 25280 35050 8859 19680 5286 35310 9990 11170 7857 38420 13980 9055 14590 11850 3453 4099 42580 52270 11570 7805 11780 41240 10470 12440 78010 672 30810 21930 29260 11990 11330 8210 12490 13290 30890 5884 9396 14110 9582 42550 10640 9236 11780 15130 12440 14180 23700 28620 22430 36990 11960 15940 28390 16310 11470 10210 8728 41130 29430 35120 11620 8904 42450 9272 25000 18050 31580 23040 34650 11050 9334 9712 21660 15610 11450 6829 15890 11140 24540 14090 12730 11040 4173 42870 33390 11240 8934 14260 10780 50330 40670 36170 39380 30660 15700 12720 10770 13720 9243 14250 12800 3459 12720 15470 9160 20800 8947 12940 24030 51590 40350 10200 15670 42220 10940 16030 39130 10850 9767 18130 11630 18470 14290 10280 22660
2021-10-07 18630 17360 5959 11950 15640 9106 16870 14060 6181 29120 15130 17530 14480 21520 7004 31180 47130 38950 8843 25130 16410 15900 18760 23310 46890 32500 162700 14350 28970 21000 9114 10440 45000 8251 46600 12870 82620 16850 11870 42040 10400 19540 31140 60740 10870 38210 12100 13600 13810 16240 29210 23320 29720 11600 24380 13150 15540 42960 14660 20330 11970 16520 30470 4489 23550 21020 9303 16100 43730 41860 11240 10060 9138 15970 54490 6000 20910 824 10960 7653 10780 47630 5963 75310 44960 5885 13590 48140 16870 14930 15570 8964 10830 34060 6576 25700 46740 28090 11680 44040 11560 19750 47290 14440 7085 11300 13810 9696 15930 13750 9960 9553 12820 38290 15660 17480 10390 13330 5355 13890 40910 18250 9422 14370 12880 16860 10090 10350 14900 36220 17770 11980 6390 10250 28720 16000 92320 12870 7930 15070 10900 33930 13580 9157 33850 19360 8840 22860 11040 31830 12110 17600 31540 9157 15620 10000 12670 37080 16150 13460 11070 13620 40470 13260 11240 37340 16640 13910 9015 13090 5104 12760 25670 15640 13320 13000 37980 19850 61160 27620 41320 18240 118500 57890 8514 34730 13060 12920 16080 80180 31790 19990 6243 5501 90540 15750 36890 5561 9056 9940 25340 6094 6976 13400 22350 15520 23840 10750 33100 7921 7366 4130 20200 13060 14500 46330 15680 48720 18970 23250 15400 6998 11550 21580 12400 11290 52270 20220 5574 20370 28010 8567 13460 30130 37480 13770 50330 17400 8328 39490 350 18260 8691 15230 12310 27010 26610 26100 9782 23430 19450 44520 19810 10980 16810 25360 35280 8900 19750 5304 35360 10020 11200 7871 38580 14080 9080 14640 11890 3468 4119 42670 52420 11630 7845 11820 41370 10520 12490 78230 674 31080 21970 29390 12040 11370 8241 12550 13370 30960 5914 9449 14190 9645 42720 10690 9282 11820 15170 12500 14220 23750 28670 22480 37060 11990 16040 28490 16420 11530 10250 8772 41300 29500 35240 11710 8933 42560 9307 25060 18080 31660 23140 34770 11100 9367 9761 21760 15660 11490 6851 15910 11180 24590 14150 12780 11120 4200 42940 33580 11300 8968 14390 10840 50510 40810 36230 39470 30750 15810 12750 10810 13770 9329 14310 12850 3480 12780 15520 9205 20920 8984 13010 24080 51720 40540 10240 15730 42320 10970 16080 39250 10870 9795 18200 11700 18520 14350 10320 22720
2021-10-08 18700 17410 5987 12040 15730 9142 16940 14140 6213 29240 15180 17600 14520 21640 7032 31230 47260 39140 8895 25180 16470 15990 18760 23380 47050 32570 163000 14410 29010 21080 9131 10470 45090 8278 46700 12910 82910 16900 11920 42100 10430 19620 31220 60860 10920 38300 12150 13630 13860 16260 29280 23450 29880 11610 24420 13220 15570 43250 14730 20440 11990 16600 30590 4513 23630 21090 9332 16160 43980 42020 11300 10090 9208 16070 54670 6028 21030 827 11040 7703 10840 47980 5990 75530 45150 5914 13630 48250 16950 14970 15610 9035 10910 34190 6623 25780 46930 28270 11710 44160 11620 19810 47380 14480 7174 11350 13850 9738 15990 13820 9990 9603 12860 38450 15710 17580 10410 13440 5378 13930 40990 18280 9459 14420 12920 16950 10120 10410 14980 36370 17880 12010 6414 10300 28810 16080 92410 12900 7965 15100 10950 34000 13640 9233 33910 19420 8859 22910 11110 31900 12130 17740 31620 9204 15660 10020 12720 37150 16270 13510 11120 13690 40570 13330 11280 37420 16730 13950 9042 13170 5141 12840 25720 15690 13450 13060 38090 19910 61390 27680 41400 18310 118800 58020 8530 34800 13170 12960 16150 80370 31870 20030 6263 5521 90690 15820 36960 5592 9138 9960 25410 6113 7021 13440 22450 15590 23910 10800 33200 7946 7408 4155 20250 13120 14560 46460 15740 48800 19090 23320 15430 7032 11600 21630 12440 11340 52530 20380 5591 20430 28110 8604 13530 30300 37620 13810 50440 17510 8356 39570 354 18330 8799 15270 12360 27110 26710 26190 9853 23500 19510 44600 19860 11050 16880 25440 35440 8940 19820 5323 35420 10040 11230 7884 38740 14170 9107 14700 11930 3484 4139 42770 52540 11690 7885 11870 41480 10580 12550 78430 676 31340 22010 29510 12090 11410 8271 12610 13440 31030 5943 9502 14270 9706 42900 10730 9328 11870 15220 12560 14270 23810 28770 22540 37120 12030 16140 28570 16510 11590 10280 8812 41460 29560 35360 11770 8963 42660 9341 25120 18110 31730 23230 34870 11140 9402 9810 21870 15710 11540 6872 15930 11220 24630 14210 12830 11200 4228 43010 33710 11360 9002 14510 10890 50690 40920 36300 39570 30830 15920 12780 10860 13810 9413 14360 12890 3501 12860 15560 9251 21040 9023 13070 24120 51830 40730 10280 15800 42420 11000 16140 39360 10900 9824 18260 11780 18570 14400 10360 22780
2021-10-09 18770 17460 6016 12130 15800 9175 17020 14210 6223 29350 15230 17660 14560 21760 7064 31270 47380 39270 8949 25240 16540 16070 18790 23450 47190 32630 163300 14460 29040 21150 9147 10510 45160 8295 46770 12960 83190 16960 11980 42140 10450 19660 31300 60940 10960 38390 12200 13660 13920 16280 29320 23550 30040 11620 24470 13270 15600 43410 14790 20540 12020 16680 30710 4535 23700 21160 9361 16230 44190 42150 11350 10110 9276 16160 54800 6053 21150 832 11080 7752 10870 48320 6016 75690 45330 5943 13680 48360 17030 14990 15650 9103 10980 34310 6670 25850 47090 28400 11740 44280 11660 19870 47470 14510 7258 11400 13890 9781 16050 13880 10010 9645 12900 38600 15750 17680 10430 13540 5401 13970 41080 18300 9496 14470 12970 17000 10150 10450 15060 36490 17990 12030 6438 10340 28870 16150 92480 12920 8003 15130 11010 34070 13700 9280 33960 19480 8881 22960 11170 31970 12160 17890 31700 9259 15690 10030 12760 37210 16380 13550 11180 13740 40670 13400 11320 37520 16800 13960 9064 13250 5173 12920 25770 15730 13510 13110 38190 19970 61620 27700 41470 18370 119200 58100 8545 34860 13270 13000 16220 80470 31950 20080 6280 5543 90800 15870 37030 5622 9220 9990 25470 6136 7066 13480 22540 15660 23960 10850 33300 7973 7448 4183 20290 13180 14610 46570 15810 48870 19210 23400 15440 7070 11650 21680 12490 11380 52700 20530 5604 20500 28200 8641 13570 30420 37730 13860 50550 17610 8386 39630 357 18400 8904 15300 12400 27210 26820 26280 9891 23550 19570 44680 19910 11120 16950 25480 35530 8980 19890 5342 35470 10070 11250 7901 38900 14260 9133 14760 11970 3501 4159 42870 52640 11750 7922 11920 41560 10630 12600 78610 678 31590 22080 29640 12150 11440 8300 12670 13520 31100 5973 9555 14350 9765 42990 10780 9374 11910 15260 12630 14310 23870 28810 22590 37190 12060 16250 28640 16570 11640 10310 8845 41640 29600 35480 11830 8992 42740 9375 25180 18130 31800 23330 34980 11170 9437 9860 21980 15760 11600 6891 15950 11270 24680 14260 12870 11270 4256 43080 33860 11430 9036 14640 10940 50870 41010 36360 39670 30920 16030 12820 10900 13860 9496 14420 12940 3523 12900 15610 9299 21150 9064 13150 24160 51950 40950 10330 15870 42500 11030 16210 39460 10930 9857 18300 11850 18620 14450 10400 22840
2021-10-10 18840 17520 6046 12210 15920 9208 17100 14290 6234 29470 15290 17740 14600 21890 7098 31320 47510 39440 9005 25300 16620 16160 18820 23530 47330 32700 163600 14520 29080 21220 9163 10560 45240 8316 46880 13000 83470 17020 12030 42190 10470 19690 31380 61050 11000 38480 12260 13690 13980 16310 29380 23600 30190 11630 24520 13350 15620 43530 14860 20630 12040 16760 30820 4554 23770 21230 9391 16290 44470 42320 11410 10130 9344 16260 54910 6076 21270 836 11110 7801 10920 48670 6043 75900 45520 5972 13720 48460 17110 15040 15690 9171 11060 34450 6717 25920 47260 28530 11770 44420 11700 19940 47560 14550 7339 11450 13940 9826 16110 13950 10030 9696 12920 38750 15790 17780 10470 13650 5424 14020 41160 18330 9534 14530 13010 17070 10190 10520 15130 36680 18080 12050 6462 10380 28950 16230 92710 12950 8042 15150 11070 34140 13760 9309 34020 19550 8904 23010 11240 32040 12180 18030 31780 9319 15720 10050 12810 37280 16490 13590 11240 13780 40770 13470 11370 37630 16910 13990 9080 13330 5189 13000 25810 15770 13620 13170 38290 20040 61860 27740 41550 18440 119500 58220 8565 34920 13370 13030 16290 80620 32030 20140 6297 5565 90940 15930 37110 5653 9303 10010 25540 6159 7111 13520 22630 15720 24020 10890 33410 8000 7488 4212 20330 13240 14670 46680 15880 48950 19310 23470 15500 7110 11700 21740 12550 11440 52800 20690 5622 20560 28300 8678 13640 30570 37900 13910 50660 17710 8417 39710 360 18470 9008 15330 12440 27330 26920 26380 9911 23600 19630 44750 19960 11190 17020 25530 35630 9020 19960 5361 35540 10100 11280 7923 39060 14350 9160 14820 12010 3519 4178 42940 52750 11810 7960 11960 41670 10690 12660 78820 681 31830 22130 29770 12210 11480 8329 12730 13590 31160 6002 9608 14430 9823 43130 10830 9420 11960 15310 12690 14360 23920 28900 22640 37250 12100 16350 28710 16670 11700 10350 8891 41820 29670 35610 11900 9022 42830 9408 25250 18150 31860 23420 35100 11220 9473 9911 22090 15820 11650 6911 15970 11310 24730 14320 12920 11350 4285 43140 33960 11490 9069 14750 10990 51060 41140 36420 39760 31010 16140 12850 10950 13920 9577 14480 12980 3546 12920 15660 9349 21260 9106 13220 24200 52080 41160 10380 15940 42640 11060 16270 39570 10950 9891 18350 11930 18670 14520 10450 22910

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-10-04 to 2021-10-10

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-10-03 18331 17144 5846 11580 15305 8943 16588 13748 5982 28616 14934 17308 14340 21052 6919 30972 46575 38157 8651 24901 16191 15530 18727 23049 46140 32229 161058 13980 28776 20639 9034 10326 44615 8139 46083 12732 81400 16652 11679 41706 10293 19032 30813 60204 10707 37807 11931 13455 13603 16060 28956 22336 29046 11556 24192 12877 15395 41842 14363 19536 11874 16182 29984 4277 23246 20777 9195 15840 42347 41107 11021 9922 8839 15557 53136 5861 20396 816 10455 7443 10486 46181 5858 74126 44237 5760 13432 47662 16566 14715 15404 8666 10500 33600 6387 25362 45954 27196 11554 43408 11228 19269 46875 14266 6670 11114 13642 9545 15700 13494 9749 9268 12594 37647 15421 17073 10302 12872 5255 13781 40588 18090 9276 14184 12732 16382 9965 10020 14533 35011 17250 11841 6287 10039 28245 15669 91232 12741 7807 14927 10675 33638 13378 8715 33631 19155 8781 22639 10759 31537 12008 16987 31207 9018 15443 9929 12501 36802 15442 13312 10868 13157 40018 12929 11128 36915 16110 13765 8813 12772 4886 12441 25448 15443 12751 12803 37510 19649 60319 27268 40961 17872 117200 57075 8434 34411 12602 12755 15771 79229 31428 19778 6151 5433 89826 15476 36605 5432 8742 9830 25068 6037 6793 13267 21956 15225 23543 10522 32727 7830 7180 4045 19948 12832 14305 45729 15446 48382 18406 22942 15159 6890 11343 21247 12265 11039 50817 19541 5459 20093 27618 8417 13083 29368 36776 13633 49865 16992 8221 39094 327 17957 8227 15069 11914 26713 26204 25759 9367 23081 19202 44159 19582 10676 16546 24925 33921 8728 19487 5231 35112 9901 11086 7795 37919 13699 8976 14431 11730 3412 4037 42284 51754 11400 7669 11659 40712 10285 12271 77194 667 29952 21756 28855 11882 11195 8109 12331 13042 30640 5792 9234 13868 9366 41807 10532 9094 11646 14985 12271 13998 23520 28494 22284 36772 11893 15616 28062 15934 11244 10089 8585 40667 29135 34746 11289 8817 42017 9167 24821 17915 31289 22742 34227 10879 9235 9565 21340 15475 11331 6757 15825 11024 24393 13913 12558 10809 4094 42652 32818 11064 8828 13838 10617 49812 40279 35961 39076 30445 15348 12618 10633 13595 8963 14084 12641 3399 12325 15330 9034 20389 8841 12760 23817 51169 39846 10088 15484 41814 10863 15884 38711 10752 9697 17863 11386 18328 14060 10195 22491
2021-10-04 18410 17280 5872 11670 15430 8980 16670 13830 6010 28730 15000 17390 14390 21200 6959 31030 46710 38340 8710 24970 16290 15620 18800 23120 46350 32290 161500 14060 28840 20710 9076 10380 44730 8168 46220 12780 81700 16730 11760 41800 10310 19120 30910 60320 10760 37900 11990 13490 13670 16110 29040 22480 29210 11580 24240 12960 15430 42050 14440 19680 11900 16260 30100 4313 23310 20860 9228 15900 42650 41310 11090 9950 8893 15650 53320 5885 20500 824 10530 7487 10550 46510 5882 74430 44430 5790 13480 47770 16660 14770 15450 8751 10560 33750 6436 25430 46180 27390 11580 43580 11300 19370 47040 14340 6728 11170 13690 9599 15770 13560 9790 9343 12640 37790 15480 17170 10340 12970 5279 13860 40680 18130 9319 14250 12790 16490 10010 10110 14600 35280 17340 11880 6316 10080 28350 15740 91530 12760 7847 14960 10730 33710 13450 8788 33690 19220 8832 22690 10830 31600 12040 17100 31290 9097 15480 9950 12550 36890 15640 13360 10930 13230 40130 13010 11190 37050 16250 13810 8855 12870 4921 12510 25490 15480 12880 12890 37610 19720 60570 27330 41050 17970 117700 57280 8456 34470 12690 12800 15840 79440 31510 19860 6167 5460 90020 15550 36700 5463 8823 9860 25140 6058 6849 13310 22050 15300 23600 10560 32830 7858 7217 4086 20030 12890 14390 45870 15520 48470 18500 23020 15230 6929 11410 21320 12330 11100 51030 19690 5489 20150 27730 8453 13170 29550 36970 13680 49980 17120 8255 39200 328 18040 8304 15100 12000 26840 26330 25850 9438 23150 19270 44240 19630 10750 16640 25010 34100 8772 19570 5252 35200 9940 11120 7825 38100 13790 9005 14500 11770 3434 4057 42410 51900 11470 7706 11700 40880 10350 12330 77460 670 30140 21830 29000 11930 11260 8143 12410 13120 30710 5831 9282 13970 9433 41980 10600 9141 11700 15030 12340 14060 23580 28600 22340 36840 11950 15730 28170 16060 11320 10130 8653 40860 29220 34890 11390 8847 42150 9207 24890 17940 31420 22840 34400 10940 9274 9626 21460 15540 11390 6774 15850 11070 24450 13980 12610 10870 4124 42710 33010 11120 8865 13960 10670 50040 40430 36030 39180 30560 15450 12650 10690 13660 9042 14140 12680 3423 12380 15380 9098 20510 8894 12860 23880 51330 40080 10150 15560 41980 10900 15970 38860 10780 9740 17930 11460 18380 14130 10250 22560
2021-10-05 18510 17420 5892 11770 15520 9018 16740 13910 6050 28830 15060 17450 14440 21330 6989 31080 46850 38550 8763 25030 16360 15720 18900 23200 46520 32350 161900 14150 28890 20800 9135 10420 44830 8209 46340 12830 81990 16770 11840 41870 10340 19230 30990 60450 10800 38010 12040 13520 13730 16140 29110 22680 29360 11630 24300 13040 15460 42350 14510 19850 11930 16340 30220 4358 23390 20920 9258 15950 42950 41490 11150 9980 8952 15720 53510 5916 20620 832 10630 7533 10620 46830 5915 74700 44620 5825 13530 47890 16750 14820 15490 8834 10650 33880 6490 25510 46360 27580 11620 43750 11380 19470 47150 14440 6783 11220 13760 9639 15830 13640 9840 9397 12680 37950 15550 17280 10350 13070 5304 13940 40770 18170 9356 14310 12830 16590 10040 10200 14650 35520 17460 11910 6345 10130 28470 15800 91850 12790 7880 14990 10780 33780 13500 8887 33740 19260 8894 22740 10910 31670 12060 17230 31350 9159 15510 9970 12600 36960 15800 13410 10980 13300 40240 13090 11230 37150 16390 13840 8885 12950 4971 12580 25540 15530 13030 12950 37710 19780 60820 27400 41130 18040 118100 57470 8477 34540 12790 12840 15900 79650 31590 19930 6188 5481 90200 15630 36770 5501 8911 9890 25210 6076 6901 13360 22150 15360 23670 10610 32930 7882 7270 4112 20190 12950 14450 46010 15590 48580 18650 23080 15320 6962 11470 21390 12380 11160 51300 19860 5518 20230 27830 8495 13260 29760 37160 13730 50120 17240 8283 39290 331 18120 8398 15140 12080 26950 26450 25950 9510 23230 19340 44320 19680 10830 16710 25110 34360 8818 19640 5274 35270 9970 11140 7845 38280 13910 9031 14570 11820 3450 4079 42520 52020 11540 7740 11750 41030 10410 12390 77730 671 30360 21890 29150 11970 11360 8176 12470 13210 30800 5870 9341 14070 9492 42170 10650 9193 11750 15080 12410 14110 23630 28720 22400 36910 11980 15830 28270 16220 11400 10160 8692 41040 29300 35000 11500 8874 42280 9243 24960 17960 31650 22970 34540 10990 9314 9679 21570 15600 11450 6799 15860 11120 24500 14050 12660 10960 4152 42770 33130 11200 8902 14100 10720 50190 40580 36110 39290 30650 15540 12690 10740 13710 9110 14200 12730 3446 12460 15420 9165 20640 8935 12930 23950 51450 40320 10200 15630 42110 10930 16030 38990 10810 9770 18000 11520 18430 14200 10300 22620
2021-10-06 18600 17540 5915 11870 15610 9054 16820 13990 6087 28920 15120 17520 14480 21460 7023 31130 46980 38750 8814 25090 16440 15810 18980 23270 46720 32410 162200 14240 28930 20870 9187 10470 44930 8245 46460 12880 82280 16830 11910 41940 10360 19330 31060 60550 10850 38110 12090 13560 13790 16180 29180 22860 29520 11660 24350 13120 15500 42650 14580 19990 11950 16420 30350 4398 23450 20980 9287 16000 43240 41680 11210 10010 9008 15780 53700 5944 20720 841 10720 7579 10690 47150 5947 74940 44810 5859 13580 48000 16830 14870 15530 8907 10740 34020 6542 25590 46540 27750 11650 43900 11450 19560 47260 14520 6836 11260 13810 9688 15890 13720 9870 9446 12730 38100 15600 17390 10380 13140 5329 14020 40860 18200 9390 14360 12870 16680 10070 10270 14710 35730 17570 11940 6372 10180 28580 15860 92120 12810 7916 15010 10840 33840 13560 8974 33800 19310 8953 22790 10980 31730 12090 17350 31410 9224 15540 9990 12640 37020 15960 13450 11040 13360 40350 13160 11270 37260 16530 13880 8916 13030 5016 12660 25590 15580 13170 13010 37800 19850 61060 27470 41210 18100 118500 57620 8497 34610 12880 12880 15950 79830 31670 19990 6206 5504 90360 15690 36850 5537 8999 9920 25290 6097 6951 13400 22240 15420 23730 10650 33030 7908 7308 4145 20310 13020 14500 46140 15660 48660 18790 23140 15390 7000 11520 21450 12420 11230 51510 20030 5543 20300 27930 8535 13340 29960 37330 13770 50240 17340 8314 39390 334 18200 8491 15170 12150 27060 26560 26040 9566 23290 19410 44390 19730 10900 16780 25200 34580 8861 19710 5295 35350 10000 11170 7862 38450 14020 9056 14630 11860 3468 4101 42620 52130 11610 7772 11800 41180 10480 12450 77990 673 30580 21950 29290 12020 11430 8207 12540 13290 30880 5907 9398 14160 9555 42350 10710 9242 11800 15130 12480 14150 23690 28840 22450 36970 12010 15930 28360 16370 11460 10200 8728 41220 29380 35100 11600 8903 42410 9275 25020 17980 31850 23090 34680 11040 9354 9731 21680 15660 11500 6822 15880 11170 24550 14120 12710 11040 4181 42830 33260 11270 8928 14230 10770 50340 40720 36180 39400 30750 15620 12720 10780 13750 9171 14270 12770 3469 12520 15460 9231 20760 8974 13000 24000 51540 40560 10240 15710 42230 10950 16100 39110 10840 9806 18080 11580 18480 14270 10350 22690
2021-10-07 18680 17660 5939 11960 15690 9087 16900 14070 6124 29010 15170 17590 14530 21590 7059 31170 47100 38940 8863 25150 16510 15900 19080 23350 46880 32460 162600 14320 28980 20940 9235 10510 45010 8278 46580 12920 82560 16870 11970 42010 10390 19430 31120 60690 10890 38210 12140 13590 13850 16210 29240 23040 29660 11700 24400 13200 15530 42930 14640 20130 11960 16510 30470 4435 23510 21040 9321 16040 43500 41870 11260 10040 9063 15850 53850 5970 20830 850 10800 7625 10750 47470 5978 75200 45000 5892 13630 48110 16910 14920 15580 8978 10820 34150 6593 25660 46710 27930 11680 44050 11520 19640 47370 14590 6887 11310 13870 9737 15950 13790 9910 9494 12770 38240 15660 17490 10400 13220 5353 14100 40950 18240 9424 14420 12920 16770 10110 10330 14760 35910 17680 11970 6399 10220 28690 15920 92400 12840 7954 15040 10900 33910 13610 9059 33850 19360 9011 22850 11050 31790 12120 17470 31460 9291 15580 10000 12690 37080 16120 13500 11100 13420 40450 13230 11320 37360 16650 13920 8939 13110 5060 12740 25640 15620 13300 13070 37880 19920 61310 27540 41280 18150 118900 57760 8519 34670 12960 12920 16010 80010 31740 20030 6223 5527 90530 15760 36920 5571 9089 9950 25360 6120 7002 13450 22340 15470 23790 10690 33130 7935 7354 4177 20420 13090 14550 46270 15730 48740 18920 23200 15450 7040 11570 21510 12470 11290 51690 20200 5562 20360 28010 8575 13410 30130 37490 13820 50360 17450 8345 39490 335 18270 8583 15200 12220 27170 26680 26130 9633 23360 19470 44470 19780 10980 16850 25270 34790 8902 19770 5316 35400 10030 11200 7876 38600 14130 9082 14690 11890 3486 4123 42720 52240 11660 7804 11850 41320 10540 12510 78230 674 30790 21990 29430 12070 11510 8237 12600 13370 30950 5942 9456 14240 9611 42500 10760 9290 11840 15170 12560 14190 23740 28950 22510 37030 12040 16030 28460 16510 11530 10230 8773 41410 29450 35200 11690 8941 42530 9308 25090 18000 32030 23210 34810 11090 9394 9781 21800 15710 11560 6844 15890 11210 24600 14180 12750 11110 4209 42870 33390 11350 8959 14360 10810 50490 40860 36240 39500 30850 15700 12760 10830 13800 9224 14330 12820 3492 12570 15500 9297 20880 9013 13060 24050 51630 40800 10280 15770 42340 10980 16170 39220 10870 9842 18150 11640 18530 14330 10400 22760
2021-10-08 18750 17760 5960 12060 15780 9118 16990 14150 6152 29100 15230 17650 14570 21730 7095 31210 47200 39140 8916 25200 16590 15990 19160 23430 47020 32510 163000 14400 29030 21010 9281 10550 45100 8308 46670 12970 82850 16910 12050 42070 10410 19520 31180 60820 10930 38310 12190 13620 13920 16240 29310 23200 29790 11730 24440 13270 15550 43210 14700 20250 11980 16590 30580 4470 23570 21090 9358 16080 43760 42050 11320 10070 9118 15900 54000 5995 20930 859 10880 7671 10810 47770 6008 75420 45190 5924 13680 48220 16990 14970 15620 9045 10900 34280 6644 25730 46880 28100 11720 44190 11580 19710 47450 14660 6939 11360 13920 9780 16010 13870 9940 9536 12800 38370 15710 17600 10420 13280 5376 14180 41040 18270 9455 14480 12970 16860 10150 10370 14800 36100 17780 12000 6426 10260 28790 15970 92600 12870 7992 15070 10960 33970 13670 9140 33910 19410 9067 22900 11120 31850 12150 17580 31510 9357 15610 10020 12730 37140 16270 13550 11170 13480 40550 13300 11350 37460 16760 13950 8961 13180 5103 12820 25690 15660 13430 13120 37960 19990 61530 27600 41340 18210 119200 57890 8540 34730 13050 12960 16060 80210 31800 20080 6241 5551 90670 15830 37000 5605 9179 9980 25440 6144 7053 13490 22430 15520 23850 10720 33240 7962 7389 4207 20520 13150 14590 46400 15800 48810 19040 23260 15520 7082 11610 21570 12530 11350 51890 20370 5578 20430 28110 8614 13480 30310 37650 13870 50450 17560 8376 39580 337 18360 8676 15230 12290 27240 26780 26230 9709 23430 19540 44540 19830 11050 16930 25340 35010 8943 19830 5337 35470 10060 11230 7889 38770 14240 9108 14760 11930 3503 4144 42820 52330 11720 7837 11890 41460 10600 12570 78460 676 31010 22040 29560 12130 11580 8267 12660 13450 31020 5977 9513 14330 9662 42680 10810 9341 11890 15210 12630 14240 23800 29080 22560 37080 12080 16130 28550 16640 11600 10260 8815 41590 29520 35290 11790 8974 42650 9342 25150 18020 32240 23340 34940 11130 9434 9830 21910 15760 11630 6865 15900 11260 24640 14260 12790 11190 4239 42910 33490 11420 8990 14490 10860 50650 40980 36300 39590 30930 15790 12790 10880 13850 9276 14390 12870 3515 12630 15540 9363 20990 9046 13130 24090 51700 41040 10320 15840 42450 11000 16240 39310 10890 9873 18220 11700 18580 14390 10450 22820
2021-10-09 18840 17870 5981 12150 15850 9152 17070 14230 6177 29190 15280 17710 14600 21840 7133 31250 47300 39330 8968 25240 16670 16080 19250 23510 47160 32550 163300 14480 29060 21070 9326 10590 45180 8336 46760 13020 83100 16950 12100 42130 10430 19620 31250 60950 10970 38400 12230 13660 13980 16270 29360 23360 29920 11760 24490 13340 15580 43460 14760 20360 12000 16670 30700 4504 23630 21140 9394 16120 44010 42210 11380 10100 9172 15960 54160 6018 21020 868 10960 7718 10860 48090 6039 75630 45370 5957 13720 48320 17070 15010 15660 9111 10990 34410 6694 25800 47030 28260 11750 44330 11650 19790 47530 14720 6990 11410 13960 9815 16060 13950 9970 9578 12830 38510 15750 17710 10430 13330 5400 14250 41130 18300 9491 14530 13010 16930 10180 10420 14850 36300 17870 12030 6451 10300 28890 16030 92840 12900 8031 15090 11020 34030 13720 9217 33970 19450 9124 22950 11190 31910 12180 17710 31560 9430 15630 10030 12760 37190 16430 13590 11230 13530 40650 13370 11400 37560 16880 13970 8989 13260 5144 12910 25730 15700 13550 13160 38050 20060 61770 27660 41390 18270 119500 58000 8561 34790 13140 13000 16120 80370 31870 20130 6258 5572 90800 15890 37060 5639 9269 10010 25510 6168 7102 13540 22520 15570 23900 10760 33340 7990 7437 4235 20640 13220 14620 46530 15880 48870 19160 23320 15580 7125 11660 21620 12580 11410 52070 20540 5592 20490 28210 8653 13540 30480 37790 13920 50550 17640 8408 39660 339 18430 8770 15250 12350 27300 26890 26320 9756 23490 19600 44610 19880 11120 17000 25410 35200 8983 19900 5358 35520 10090 11250 7908 38910 14340 9133 14830 11970 3520 4165 42910 52410 11780 7869 11940 41580 10660 12630 78680 678 31210 22090 29700 12190 11640 8297 12710 13530 31080 6010 9571 14410 9718 42810 10860 9389 11940 15240 12700 14270 23850 29190 22610 37130 12110 16230 28630 16770 11660 10290 8856 41770 29590 35370 11880 9004 42770 9376 25220 18040 32420 23470 35060 11170 9473 9878 22020 15820 11690 6886 15910 11310 24680 14320 12840 11270 4268 42950 33570 11490 9016 14610 10910 50770 41090 36360 39690 31020 15870 12820 10930 13890 9327 14450 12920 3537 12680 15580 9430 21090 9083 13190 24140 51770 41290 10360 15910 42540 11030 16310 39390 10910 9904 18280 11750 18620 14450 10500 22890
2021-10-10 18890 17960 6000 12250 15940 9183 17150 14310 6204 29280 15330 17770 14650 21970 7172 31280 47420 39520 9018 25300 16750 16170 19380 23600 47290 32600 163700 14560 29100 21140 9370 10630 45260 8368 46860 13070 83380 17000 12170 42190 10460 19710 31320 61090 11020 38500 12280 13690 14040 16290 29420 23520 30060 11800 24540 13410 15610 43720 14830 20480 12020 16750 30820 4537 23680 21200 9436 16160 44290 42390 11440 10130 9226 16010 54300 6042 21130 877 11030 7765 10920 48420 6069 75890 45560 5989 13770 48430 17160 15050 15700 9179 11070 34550 6745 25870 47190 28440 11780 44490 11700 19860 47630 14780 7040 11460 14010 9863 16120 14020 10010 9624 12850 38640 15800 17810 10460 13390 5423 14330 41220 18340 9522 14580 13060 17020 10220 10490 14900 36480 17970 12060 6477 10340 29000 16080 93060 12930 8072 15120 11070 34090 13770 9291 34030 19500 9180 23000 11250 31960 12210 17820 31610 9507 15660 10050 12810 37250 16610 13640 11290 13580 40750 13440 11460 37670 17010 14000 9014 13330 5184 13000 25780 15740 13690 13220 38120 20130 62040 27720 41460 18340 119800 58120 8582 34850 13220 13040 16170 80560 31930 20190 6275 5598 90940 15950 37140 5673 9360 10030 25580 6191 7151 13580 22610 15620 23960 10800 33450 8018 7480 4258 20770 13290 14670 46650 15950 48930 19280 23380 15650 7169 11710 21680 12630 11470 52220 20710 5608 20570 28310 8691 13610 30660 37960 13970 50650 17720 8440 39740 341 18500 8864 15270 12410 27390 27000 26410 9795 23550 19670 44680 19930 11190 17080 25480 35410 9023 19970 5380 35580 10120 11270 7930 39070 14450 9159 14890 12010 3540 4186 42990 52500 11860 7898 11980 41720 10730 12690 78920 679 31430 22130 29830 12250 11710 8326 12770 13610 31150 6045 9629 14510 9776 42960 10910 9437 11990 15290 12770 14320 23910 29320 22670 37190 12150 16330 28710 16900 11720 10320 8889 41980 29660 35460 11990 9044 42880 9413 25290 18060 32570 23600 35190 11210 9513 9928 22140 15870 11750 6911 15930 11360 24730 14390 12880 11340 4297 42990 33670 11570 9047 14730 10960 50900 41220 36430 39800 31110 15960 12860 10980 13950 9382 14510 12970 3560 12720 15610 9497 21190 9125 13270 24190 51860 41530 10410 15990 42670 11060 16380 39490 10940 9943 18350 11820 18670 14520 10560 22950

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.