
Ox Professional version 7.04 (Windows/U/MT) (C) J.A. Doornik, 1994-2014
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:     pvalue=0.001
replications, M=         1000  time                    10.63

*** HP7big constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.001 #insig=141 #sig=3 cp=145 cp_orig=145

Gauge (%)                      0.0965
Potency (%)                   99.7333
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    141.0000
GUM: no of variables         145.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.9920
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1360
ESE final model                6.3895
ESE DGP                        6.4250
Final equals DGP (% reps)     87.4000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   99.6000
Gauge (significant only)       0.0965
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.4000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     17.2000
Both dominated at 5%           0.3000
        y_1    x11  x11_1
Hits   99.6  100.0   99.6

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    1    1  875  115    8    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.60   3.90   0.60
ARCH(4)     7.80   3.90   0.80
Normality   9.20   4.10   0.80
Hetero      8.60   5.10   1.30
Chow(70%)  10.50   5.00   1.20
Joint      36.10  19.90   4.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       9.50   4.60   0.80
ARCH(4)     7.10   3.50   0.70
Normality   8.40   3.50   0.70
Hetero      7.90   4.60   1.20
Chow(70%)  10.10   4.90   0.70
Joint      35.00  19.20   4.00

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                    12.41

*** HP7big constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.01 #insig=141 #sig=3 cp=145 cp_orig=145

Gauge (%)                      0.8454
Potency (%)                   99.9333
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    141.0000
GUM: no of variables         145.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.9980
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.1920
ESE final model                6.2113
ESE DGP                        6.4250
Final equals DGP (% reps)     32.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   99.8000
Gauge (significant only)       0.8454
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     69.2000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000
        y_1    x11  x11_1
Hits  100.0  100.0   99.8

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0  322  355  192   98   18    9    4    0    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.60   3.90   0.60
ARCH(4)     7.80   3.90   0.80
Normality   9.20   4.10   0.80
Hetero      8.60   5.10   1.30
Chow(70%)  10.50   5.00   1.20
Joint      36.10  19.90   4.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       9.10   3.90   0.50
ARCH(4)     7.00   2.50   0.80
Normality   8.80   4.70   1.10
Hetero      8.20   4.80   1.30
Chow(70%)   7.60   3.80   0.80
Joint      33.60  18.10   4.20

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:     pvalue=0.001
replications, M=         1000  time                     9.24

*** HP8big constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.001 #insig=141 #sig=3 cp=145 cp_orig=145

Gauge (%)                      0.7270
Potency (%)                   40.3333
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    141.0000
GUM: no of variables         145.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.2100
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.0250
ESE final model                0.0955
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)      9.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   10.5000
Gauge (significant only)       0.7270
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       89.5000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     39.2000
Both dominated at 5%          36.7000
        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits   10.5  100.0   10.5

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0  253  364  293   77   11    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.40   4.40   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.40   4.40   0.90
Hetero     10.60   6.20   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.50   4.90   1.00
Joint      37.80  21.40   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      90.30  89.60  89.50
ARCH(4)    83.70  80.90  73.20
Normality  16.40   9.90   3.50
Hetero     23.80  15.80   6.90
Chow(70%)  15.80  11.00   4.60
Joint      93.10  91.70  89.90

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                    12.48

*** HP8big constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.01 #insig=141 #sig=3 cp=145 cp_orig=145

Gauge (%)                      1.6936
Potency (%)                   50.8667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    141.0000
GUM: no of variables         145.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.5260
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    2.3880
ESE final model                0.0866
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)     10.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   26.3000
Gauge (significant only)       1.6936
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       73.7000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     65.2000
Both dominated at 5%          48.1000
        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits   26.3  100.0   26.3

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   45  130  266  261  142   88   37   20    4    5    1    0    1    0    0    0    0    0    0
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.40   4.40   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.40   4.40   0.90
Hetero     10.60   6.20   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.50   4.90   1.00
Joint      37.80  21.40   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      75.90  74.40  73.70
ARCH(4)    62.10  56.60  47.80
Normality  14.00   7.80   2.80
Hetero     21.90  14.30   5.90
Chow(70%)   9.80   7.00   2.10
Joint      82.30  77.90  74.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 21:53.07
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Tiny:0.001
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value     0.0158114  presearch p-value   0.0199054
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value         0.001  squeeze p-value        0.0002
chopping p-value    0.0158114  bunching p-value    0.0158114
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** HP7big constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.001 #insig=141 #sig=3 cp=145 cp_orig=145

Gauge (%)                      0.2972
Potency (%)                   97.0000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    141.0000
GUM: no of variables         145.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.9100
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1520
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1520
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2670
ESE final model                6.4204
ESE DGP                        6.4250
Final equals DGP (% reps)     82.6000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   91.2000
Gauge (significant only)       0.1894
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.3000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     13.5000
Both dominated at 5%           0.3000
        y_1    x11  x11_1
Hits   99.8  100.0   91.2

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    1  834   80   46   20   11    3    1    2    1    0    0    1    0    0    0    0    0
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.60   3.90   0.60
ARCH(4)     7.80   3.90   0.80
Normality   9.20   4.10   0.80
Hetero      8.60   5.10   1.30
Chow(70%)  10.50   5.00   1.20
Joint      36.10  19.90   4.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      15.10   9.70   0.00
ARCH(4)     7.20   3.20   0.00
Normality   8.70   3.40   0.00
Hetero      9.00   5.10   0.80
Chow(70%)   9.90   4.40   0.00
Joint      39.70  22.90   0.80

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      13.20   7.20   0.00
ARCH(4)     6.80   2.70   0.00
Normality   9.00   3.20   0.00
Hetero      8.30   4.60   0.90
Chow(70%)   9.50   4.30   0.00
Joint      38.20  20.00   0.90

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 21:54.96
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** HP7big constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.01 #insig=141 #sig=3 cp=145 cp_orig=145

Gauge (%)                      1.2972
Potency (%)                   96.8333
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    141.0000
GUM: no of variables         145.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.9050
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1400
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1400
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.6890
ESE final model                6.2268
ESE DGP                        6.4250
Final equals DGP (% reps)     43.3000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   90.5000
Gauge (significant only)       1.1979
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     52.4000
Both dominated at 5%           0.2000
        y_1    x11  x11_1
Hits  100.0  100.0   90.5

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0  434  173  120   99   59   37   26   16   16    6    8    3    1    1    0    1    0
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.60   3.90   0.60
ARCH(4)     7.80   3.90   0.80
Normality   9.20   4.10   0.80
Hetero      8.60   5.10   1.30
Chow(70%)  10.50   5.00   1.20
Joint      36.10  19.90   4.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.90   7.50   0.00
ARCH(4)     7.70   3.50   0.00
Normality   9.00   3.70   0.00
Hetero      7.70   4.20   0.10
Chow(70%)   6.90   3.00   0.00
Joint      35.90  19.60   0.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.30   6.00   0.00
ARCH(4)     8.10   3.70   0.00
Normality   9.50   3.90   0.00
Hetero      6.50   3.60   0.10
Chow(70%)   6.60   3.00   0.00
Joint      35.40  18.30   0.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 23:21.60
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Tiny:0.001
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value     0.0158114  presearch p-value   0.0199054
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value         0.001  squeeze p-value        0.0002
chopping p-value    0.0158114  bunching p-value    0.0158114
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** HP8big constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.001 #insig=141 #sig=3 cp=145 cp_orig=145

Gauge (%)                      0.0929
Potency (%)                  100.0000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    141.0000
GUM: no of variables         145.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.0000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0550
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0550
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0760
ESE final model                0.0726
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)     90.4000
Final contains DGP (% reps)  100.0000
Gauge (significant only)       0.0539
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     13.5000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000
        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0  100.0  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0  904   72   16    5    3    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.40   4.40   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.40   4.40   0.90
Hetero     10.60   6.20   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.50   4.90   1.00
Joint      37.80  21.40   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.30   3.60   0.00
ARCH(4)     7.00   3.60   0.00
Normality   9.20   4.60   0.00
Hetero     10.20   5.60   0.40
Chow(70%)   9.70   4.70   0.00
Joint      37.90  20.30   0.40

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.40   3.70   0.00
ARCH(4)     6.80   3.30   0.00
Normality   9.20   4.20   0.00
Hetero     10.20   5.30   0.40
Chow(70%)   9.50   4.30   0.00
Joint      37.60  19.40   0.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 23:17.22
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** HP8big constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.01 #insig=141 #sig=3 cp=145 cp_orig=145

Gauge (%)                      1.1645
Potency (%)                  100.0000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    141.0000
GUM: no of variables         145.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.0000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1110
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1110
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.5310
ESE final model                0.0703
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)     47.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)  100.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.0858
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     54.8000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000
        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0  100.0  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0  472  183  120   67   42   32   31   13   10   11    6    5    1    1    1    2    3
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.40   4.40   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.40   4.40   0.90
Hetero     10.60   6.20   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.50   4.90   1.00
Joint      37.80  21.40   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       6.80   2.40   0.00
ARCH(4)     7.20   3.80   0.00
Normality  10.00   5.20   0.00
Hetero      8.80   4.70   0.10
Chow(70%)   7.80   3.50   0.10
Joint      35.70  18.10   0.20

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       7.00   2.30   0.00
ARCH(4)     7.20   3.80   0.00
Normality   9.40   4.90   0.00
Hetero      8.50   4.20   0.30
Chow(70%)   7.40   3.30   0.10
Joint      34.60  17.50   0.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
