
Ox Professional version 7.04 (Windows/U/MT) (C) J.A. Doornik, 1994-2014
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:       pvalue=0.1
replications, M=         1000  time                     7.28

*** HP80 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.1 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      7.3243
Potency (%)                   42.1667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.2650
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    2.7100
ESE final model                3.5083
ESE DGP                        3.6440
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    2.9000
Gauge (significant only)       7.3243
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        1.5000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     72.6000
Both dominated at 5%           0.9000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0   16.7    9.8

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   68  164  195  220  159   97   65   18    6    4    4    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero      9.80   5.60   1.40
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.10  20.50   4.60

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       4.00   1.20   0.10
ARCH(4)     8.00   4.20   1.00
Normality  10.40   4.20   0.90
Hetero      9.00   4.40   1.20
Chow(70%)   5.80   2.60   0.50
Joint      32.30  15.30   3.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.40   7.00   1.30
ARCH(4)     7.00   3.30   1.50
Normality  13.30   8.60   2.80
Hetero      4.30   2.90   0.80
Chow(70%)  11.10   7.20   1.80
Joint      39.40  25.20   7.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.05
replications, M=         1000  time                     6.58

*** HP80 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.05 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      3.8595
Potency (%)                   38.9000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.1670
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.4280
ESE final model                3.5568
ESE DGP                        3.6440
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.4000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    1.2000
Gauge (significant only)       3.8595
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        3.7000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     57.2000
Both dominated at 5%           1.6000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0   11.1    5.6

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0  216  315  255  125   64   14    9    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero      9.80   5.60   1.40
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.10  20.50   4.60

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       4.80   1.60   0.30
ARCH(4)     7.90   4.10   0.70
Normality  10.30   4.80   0.90
Hetero      8.20   3.30   0.90
Chow(70%)   6.70   3.00   0.90
Joint      32.30  15.70   3.50

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.40   7.00   1.30
ARCH(4)     7.00   3.30   1.50
Normality  13.30   8.60   2.80
Hetero      4.30   2.90   0.80
Chow(70%)  11.10   7.20   1.80
Joint      39.40  25.20   7.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                     6.00

*** HP80 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.01 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      0.9162
Potency (%)                   34.7667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.0430
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.3390
ESE final model                3.6239
ESE DGP                        3.6440
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.1000
Gauge (significant only)       0.9162
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       10.8000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     29.9000
Both dominated at 5%           2.5000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0    3.1    1.2

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0  697  239   51   11    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero      9.80   5.60   1.40
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.10  20.50   4.60

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       6.70   2.80   0.50
ARCH(4)     7.90   3.90   0.70
Normality   8.70   4.40   0.60
Hetero      7.90   2.60   0.70
Chow(70%)   9.10   4.20   1.00
Joint      33.70  16.70   3.50

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.40   7.00   1.30
ARCH(4)     7.00   3.30   1.50
Normality  13.30   8.60   2.80
Hetero      4.30   2.90   0.80
Chow(70%)  11.10   7.20   1.80
Joint      39.40  25.20   7.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:       pvalue=0.1
replications, M=         1000  time                     8.28

*** HP800 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.1 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      7.9270
Potency (%)                   89.0667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.6720
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    2.9330
ESE final model                0.7029
ESE DGP                        0.7288
Final equals DGP (% reps)      7.4000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   80.2000
Gauge (significant only)       7.9270
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        8.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     74.5000
Both dominated at 5%           4.0000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0   83.1   84.1

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0   15  101  185  216  199  134   79   43   14    8    5    1    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.00   5.40   1.60
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.30  20.50   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       4.90   1.30   0.00
ARCH(4)     7.70   4.20   0.90
Normality  10.20   4.80   0.90
Hetero     10.70   5.60   1.60
Chow(70%)   6.30   2.10   0.20
Joint      33.90  16.90   3.40

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.00   5.90   1.10
ARCH(4)     8.40   4.30   1.70
Normality  13.70   8.50   2.80
Hetero      4.10   2.70   0.90
Chow(70%)  11.70   6.70   1.80
Joint      41.50  25.50   7.90

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.05
replications, M=         1000  time                     7.78

*** HP800 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.05 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      4.5622
Potency (%)                   81.7333
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.4520
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.6880
ESE final model                0.7162
ESE DGP                        0.7288
Final equals DGP (% reps)     20.5000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   69.5000
Gauge (significant only)       4.5622
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       19.5000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     57.9000
Both dominated at 5%           8.6000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0   72.4   72.8

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    2   55  303  299  193   92   44   10    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.00   5.40   1.60
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.30  20.50   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       5.20   1.90   0.10
ARCH(4)     7.90   3.80   1.00
Normality  10.20   4.40   0.90
Hetero     10.80   6.00   1.50
Chow(70%)   7.80   3.80   0.90
Joint      35.40  18.10   4.30

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.00   5.90   1.10
ARCH(4)     8.40   4.30   1.70
Normality  13.70   8.50   2.80
Hetero      4.10   2.70   0.90
Chow(70%)  11.70   6.70   1.80
Joint      41.50  25.50   7.90

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                     7.18

*** HP800 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.01 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      2.1486
Potency (%)                   69.5667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.0870
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.7950
ESE final model                0.7358
ESE DGP                        0.7288
Final equals DGP (% reps)     36.5000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   50.1000
Gauge (significant only)       2.1486
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       42.9000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     31.2000
Both dominated at 5%          11.7000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0   56.0   52.7

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   18  296  500  162   21    2    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.00   5.40   1.60
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.30  20.50   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       9.70   4.60   0.80
ARCH(4)     7.50   3.70   0.80
Normality   8.10   3.70   0.50
Hetero      9.50   5.70   1.70
Chow(70%)  10.10   4.90   1.00
Joint      37.60  20.10   4.70

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.00   5.90   1.10
ARCH(4)     8.40   4.30   1.70
Normality  13.70   8.50   2.80
Hetero      4.10   2.70   0.90
Chow(70%)  11.70   6.70   1.80
Joint      41.50  25.50   7.90

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:       pvalue=0.1
replications, M=         1000  time                     9.20

*** HP8 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.1 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      9.4216
Potency (%)                   79.2667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.3780
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    3.4860
ESE final model                0.0764
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)      5.6000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   68.9000
Gauge (significant only)       9.4216
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       31.1000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     72.5000
Both dominated at 5%          18.9000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits   68.9  100.0   68.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    4   14   92  166  188  197  140   88   64   24   11    9    1    2    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.50   6.10   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.50  21.20   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      37.10  33.40  31.20
ARCH(4)    30.60  27.30  19.50
Normality  10.50   4.50   1.10
Hetero     15.80  10.50   4.10
Chow(70%)   6.80   4.40   1.40
Joint      55.90  43.80  33.80

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      13.10   6.60   1.30
ARCH(4)     9.00   4.90   2.00
Normality  13.30   7.10   2.70
Hetero      4.30   2.20   0.40
Chow(70%)  12.40   6.70   2.30
Joint      41.20  25.00   8.20

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.05
replications, M=         1000  time                     8.34

*** HP8 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.05 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      6.0865
Potency (%)                   69.2667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.0780
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    2.2520
ESE final model                0.0813
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)     13.5000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   53.9000
Gauge (significant only)       6.0865
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       46.1000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     59.3000
Both dominated at 5%          25.5000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits   53.9  100.0   53.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   21   70  223  284  189  115   64   27    6    0    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.50   6.10   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.50  21.20   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      50.60  47.40  46.20
ARCH(4)    43.40  39.20  32.90
Normality  12.80   7.00   2.10
Hetero     20.40  14.30   5.50
Chow(70%)   9.30   5.90   2.10
Joint      65.90  56.30  48.20

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      13.10   6.60   1.30
ARCH(4)     9.00   4.90   2.00
Normality  13.30   7.10   2.70
Hetero      4.30   2.20   0.40
Chow(70%)  12.40   6.70   2.30
Joint      41.20  25.00   8.20

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                     7.23

*** HP8 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.01 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      3.1486
Potency (%)                   53.3333
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.6000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.1650
ESE final model                0.0900
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)     22.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   30.0000
Gauge (significant only)       3.1486
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       70.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     37.2000
Both dominated at 5%          27.4000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits   30.0  100.0   30.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0  126  250  420  153   41    8    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.50   6.10   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.50  21.20   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      72.40  70.90  70.00
ARCH(4)    66.60  63.40  56.60
Normality  14.90   8.50   3.10
Hetero     23.40  16.80   6.70
Chow(70%)  14.10   8.80   4.20
Joint      80.70  75.60  71.20

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      13.10   6.60   1.30
ARCH(4)     9.00   4.90   2.00
Normality  13.30   7.10   2.70
Hetero      4.30   2.20   0.40
Chow(70%)  12.40   6.70   2.30
Joint      41.20  25.00   8.20

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Backward  termination:       pvalue=0.1
replications, M=         1000  time                    13.23

*** HP80 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.1 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                     19.1730
Potency (%)                   52.4333
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.5730
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    7.0940
ESE final model                3.4057
ESE DGP                        3.6440
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   10.3000
Gauge (significant only)      19.1730
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.1000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     91.5000
Both dominated at 5%           0.1000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0   34.2   23.1

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   13   12   29   56   68   79  119  122  116   99   96   53   51   40   23   12    7    4    1


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero      9.80   5.60   1.40
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.10  20.50   4.60

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       4.00   2.20   0.00
ARCH(4)     6.60   3.90   1.00
Normality  10.40   6.20   1.40
Hetero      7.60   4.60   0.60
Chow(70%)   5.10   2.20   0.20
Joint      29.60  18.00   3.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.40   7.00   1.30
ARCH(4)     7.00   3.30   1.50
Normality  13.30   8.60   2.80
Hetero      4.30   2.90   0.80
Chow(70%)  11.10   7.20   1.80
Joint      39.40  25.20   7.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Backward  termination:      pvalue=0.05
replications, M=         1000  time                    13.35

*** HP80 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.05 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                     10.5703
Potency (%)                   45.5000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.3650
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    3.9110
ESE final model                3.4741
ESE DGP                        3.6440
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.9000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    5.7000
Gauge (significant only)      10.5703
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        1.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     79.6000
Both dominated at 5%           0.8000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0   23.1   13.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   85   80  134  119  151  114   90   94   68   32   14   11    2    3    2    1    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero      9.80   5.60   1.40
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.10  20.50   4.60

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       3.50   1.90   0.20
ARCH(4)     7.60   3.90   1.00
Normality  10.50   5.80   0.90
Hetero      8.50   4.60   1.00
Chow(70%)   5.80   3.10   0.80
Joint      31.10  17.60   3.40

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.40   7.00   1.30
ARCH(4)     7.00   3.30   1.50
Normality  13.30   8.60   2.80
Hetero      4.30   2.90   0.80
Chow(70%)  11.10   7.20   1.80
Joint      39.40  25.20   7.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Backward  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                    13.58

*** HP80 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.01 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      2.1351
Potency (%)                   36.5667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.0970
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.7900
ESE final model                3.5976
ESE DGP                        3.6440
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.8000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    1.4000
Gauge (significant only)       2.1351
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        9.6000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     39.9000
Both dominated at 5%           2.9000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0    6.5    3.2

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0  587  166  130   55   38   13    5    3    2    0    0    0    1    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero      9.80   5.60   1.40
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.10  20.50   4.60

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       6.30   2.70   0.60
ARCH(4)     7.50   4.10   1.20
Normality   8.40   4.50   0.50
Hetero      8.90   3.40   0.80
Chow(70%)   8.40   4.10   1.00
Joint      33.40  17.10   4.00

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.40   7.00   1.30
ARCH(4)     7.00   3.30   1.50
Normality  13.30   8.60   2.80
Hetero      4.30   2.90   0.80
Chow(70%)  11.10   7.20   1.80
Joint      39.40  25.20   7.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Backward  termination:       pvalue=0.1
replications, M=         1000  time                    14.40

*** HP800 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.1 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                     19.6676
Potency (%)                   93.3000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.7990
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    7.2770
ESE final model                0.6817
ESE DGP                        0.7288
Final equals DGP (% reps)      1.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   81.4000
Gauge (significant only)      19.6676
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     92.2000
Both dominated at 5%           0.1000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0   88.5   91.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0   12   16   34   56   95  104  136  133  119   77   70   55   44   21    8   12    8


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.00   5.40   1.60
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.30  20.50   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       5.10   2.10   0.10
ARCH(4)     5.50   3.10   0.80
Normality  10.40   6.00   1.40
Hetero      7.70   3.50   0.50
Chow(70%)   5.20   2.10   0.20
Joint      29.80  16.10   3.00

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.00   5.90   1.10
ARCH(4)     8.40   4.30   1.70
Normality  13.70   8.50   2.80
Hetero      4.10   2.70   0.90
Chow(70%)  11.70   6.70   1.80
Joint      41.50  25.50   7.90

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Backward  termination:      pvalue=0.05
replications, M=         1000  time                    14.58

*** HP800 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.05 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                     11.0189
Potency (%)                   92.2667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.7680
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    4.0770
ESE final model                0.6951
ESE DGP                        0.7288
Final equals DGP (% reps)     10.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   79.7000
Gauge (significant only)      11.0189
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        2.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     81.7000
Both dominated at 5%           1.8000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0   88.3   88.5

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    3  108  114  122  134  154   91  102   79   37   28   14    7    4    3    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.00   5.40   1.60
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.30  20.50   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       4.80   1.90   0.30
ARCH(4)     6.40   2.50   0.80
Normality  11.00   5.50   0.90
Hetero      9.10   5.10   1.20
Chow(70%)   6.30   2.50   0.70
Joint      31.90  16.30   3.90

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.00   5.90   1.10
ARCH(4)     8.40   4.30   1.70
Normality  13.70   8.50   2.80
Hetero      4.10   2.70   0.90
Chow(70%)  11.70   6.70   1.80
Joint      41.50  25.50   7.90

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Backward  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                    14.84

*** HP800 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.01 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      2.8811
Potency (%)                   90.1667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.7050
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.0660
ESE final model                0.7182
ESE DGP                        0.7288
Final equals DGP (% reps)     48.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   76.6000
Gauge (significant only)       2.8811
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       14.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     43.3000
Both dominated at 5%           6.7000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0   87.9   82.6

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    1   71  528  181  106   52   31   19    6    2    1    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.00   5.40   1.60
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.30  20.50   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       9.00   3.70   0.30
ARCH(4)     7.70   3.70   1.20
Normality   9.30   4.20   0.70
Hetero     10.50   5.20   1.20
Chow(70%)   9.40   4.70   0.90
Joint      37.40  19.40   4.30

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.00   5.90   1.10
ARCH(4)     8.40   4.30   1.70
Normality  13.70   8.50   2.80
Hetero      4.10   2.70   0.90
Chow(70%)  11.70   6.70   1.80
Joint      41.50  25.50   7.90

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Backward  termination:       pvalue=0.1
replications, M=         1000  time                    15.42

*** HP8 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.1 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                     18.4405
Potency (%)                  100.0000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.0000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    6.8230
ESE final model                0.0683
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)      1.3000
Final contains DGP (% reps)  100.0000
Gauge (significant only)      18.4405
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     91.6000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0  100.0  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0   13   29   40   63  100  111  130  118  114   84   61   51   36   25   13    9    3


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.50   6.10   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.50  21.20   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.20   4.10   0.40
ARCH(4)     6.90   3.10   0.90
Normality  10.70   5.40   2.10
Hetero      7.00   3.90   1.40
Chow(70%)   5.30   2.40   0.20
Joint      32.20  17.50   4.90

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      13.10   6.60   1.30
ARCH(4)     9.00   4.90   2.00
Normality  13.30   7.10   2.70
Hetero      4.30   2.20   0.40
Chow(70%)  12.40   6.70   2.30
Joint      41.20  25.00   8.20

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Backward  termination:      pvalue=0.05
replications, M=         1000  time                    15.67

*** HP8 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.05 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                     10.0189
Potency (%)                  100.0000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.0000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    3.7070
ESE final model                0.0696
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)     12.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)  100.0000
Gauge (significant only)      10.0189
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     80.7000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0  100.0  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0  120  126  119  156  129  104   77   74   47   25    8    6    5    4    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.50   6.10   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.50  21.20   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       7.20   3.50   0.50
ARCH(4)     7.50   3.30   0.50
Normality   9.40   4.60   0.80
Hetero      9.10   4.90   1.60
Chow(70%)   5.80   3.00   0.30
Joint      33.80  18.20   3.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      13.10   6.60   1.30
ARCH(4)     9.00   4.90   2.00
Normality  13.30   7.10   2.70
Hetero      4.30   2.20   0.40
Chow(70%)  12.40   6.70   2.30
Joint      41.20  25.00   8.20

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 21-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:     Backward  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                    15.68

*** HP8 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.01 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      2.0324
Potency (%)                  100.0000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.0000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.7520
ESE final model                0.0717
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)     64.4000
Final contains DGP (% reps)  100.0000
Gauge (significant only)       2.0324
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     39.3000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0  100.0  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0  644  154  102   47   28   15    5    4    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.00   4.20   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.50   6.10   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.50  21.20   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.30   3.90   0.90
ARCH(4)     7.20   3.80   1.10
Normality   9.10   4.70   0.60
Hetero     10.10   5.20   1.50
Chow(70%)   8.80   4.00   0.50
Joint      36.70  19.30   4.50

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      13.10   6.60   1.30
ARCH(4)     9.00   4.90   2.00
Normality  13.30   7.10   2.70
Hetero      4.30   2.20   0.40
Chow(70%)  12.40   6.70   2.30
Joint      41.20  25.00   8.20

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
