
Ox Professional version 7.04 (Windows/U/MT) (C) J.A. Doornik, 1994-2014
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  5:20.70
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** Bc(delta=0, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=101 #sig=0 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      1.4733
Potency (%)                      .NaN
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        0.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    101.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)              0.0000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0260
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0260
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.4620
ESE final model                0.9465
ESE DGP                        0.9979
Final equals DGP (% reps)     29.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)  100.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.4475
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     70.9000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000

No Hits: DGP empty
Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
  291  304  228   88   40   21   13    9    2    1    1    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.70   4.40   0.90
ARCH(1)     7.80   3.50   1.10
Normality   9.50   5.10   1.40
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   8.80   4.80   1.10
Joint      30.90  15.90   4.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.70   5.10   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.90   3.90   0.00
Normality   3.00   0.80   0.00
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.20   2.20   0.00
Joint      24.60  11.70   0.00

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.50   4.70   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.90   3.90   0.00
Normality   3.00   0.80   0.00
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.10   2.20   0.00
Joint      24.50  11.30   0.00

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  6:07.94
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** Bc(delta=0, gamma=1, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      1.1160
Potency (%)                    6.0000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.2000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.3110
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0770
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.8270
ESE final model                1.0195
ESE DGP                        0.9996
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.0210
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        9.5000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      0.0000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


       I:81   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100
Hits    5.2    5.2    5.7    6.0    6.2    6.4    5.6    6.0    7.0    6.9    6.8    5.7    6.0    5.2    6.1    5.8    6.2    6.2    4.9    6.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
  177  277  211  129   99   67   17    9    8    3    2    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.80   4.80   0.80
ARCH(1)    17.70  12.10   5.20
Normality  38.20  26.50  10.90
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      55.90  39.30  16.30

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      39.10  26.00   0.30
ARCH(1)     7.90   4.10   0.00
Normality   3.30   0.50   0.00
Hetero      0.10   0.10   0.00
Chow(70%)  36.10  22.80   0.00
Joint      62.10  43.60   0.30

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      37.00  21.00   0.30
ARCH(1)     8.40   4.10   0.00
Normality   3.20   0.60   0.00
Hetero      0.10   0.10   0.00
Chow(70%)  33.20  19.50   0.00
Joint      60.00  37.70   0.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  6:53.61
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** Bc(delta=0, gamma=2, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      0.8988
Potency (%)                   31.0500
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)              6.2100
Insignificant (avg no)         2.8820
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2110
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.5170
ESE final model                1.0975
ESE DGP                        0.9996
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       0.6383
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       60.4000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      0.0000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


       I:81   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100
Hits   28.0   31.8   31.9   30.7   32.4   34.0   28.3   32.9   33.4   29.7   31.0   30.5   31.8   32.1   32.7   30.3   30.4   30.8   29.3   29.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    4   28   48   85  119  159  177  137   98   59   34   29   11    9    1    2    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.80   4.80   0.80
ARCH(1)    17.70  12.10   5.20
Normality  38.20  26.50  10.90
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      55.90  39.30  16.30

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      69.80  51.40   0.40
ARCH(1)     9.40   3.90   0.00
Normality   3.90   1.60   0.00
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  54.10  34.70   0.00
Joint      85.80  68.20   0.40

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      43.50  25.60   0.40
ARCH(1)     9.90   3.40   0.00
Normality   3.50   1.40   0.00
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  32.80  21.70   0.00
Joint      59.70  37.40   0.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  3:34.02
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** Bc(delta=0, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      0.3519
Potency (%)                   58.3250
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)             11.6650
Insignificant (avg no)         1.9370
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0370
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2480
ESE final model                1.1496
ESE DGP                        0.9996
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.3000
Gauge (significant only)       0.3062
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       27.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      1.1000
Both dominated at 5%           0.1000


       I:81   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100
Hits   56.7   58.2   58.6   57.7   60.0   59.4   56.5   57.9   58.3   60.4   56.9   58.2   57.2   59.0   63.2   56.9   57.4   59.1   55.3   59.6

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    0    4   16   45   99  164  179  149  105   71   65   34   20   21    9   19


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.80   4.80   0.80
ARCH(1)    17.70  12.10   5.20
Normality  38.20  26.50  10.90
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      55.90  39.30  16.30

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      46.90  32.30   0.10
ARCH(1)    13.80   6.20   0.10
Normality  15.70   8.20   0.20
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  51.50  41.00   0.00
Joint      74.20  60.90   0.40

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      37.30  25.50   0.10
ARCH(1)    13.80   5.90   0.30
Normality  15.10   7.70   0.30
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  44.30  35.10   0.00
Joint      65.50  51.30   0.70

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  2:08.11
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** Bc(delta=0, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      0.7617
Potency (%)                   89.4850
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)             17.8970
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1170
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0260
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.5910
ESE final model                1.0279
ESE DGP                        0.9996
Final equals DGP (% reps)     10.3000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   25.1000
Gauge (significant only)       0.7296
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.8000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     20.1000
Both dominated at 5%           0.1000


       I:81   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100
Hits   89.7   89.0   88.9   90.4   90.4   88.4   89.1   89.4   89.7   90.4   89.5   89.5   88.9   90.4   89.0   90.7   88.7   90.0   88.0   89.6

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    8   24   22   23   59   58   87  153  194  371


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.80   4.80   0.80
ARCH(1)    17.70  12.10   5.20
Normality  38.20  26.50  10.90
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      55.90  39.30  16.30

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.50   6.40   0.20
ARCH(1)    11.90   5.20   0.60
Normality  17.70   9.20   0.60
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.10   4.10   0.00
Joint      37.40  21.20   1.40

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.50   6.00   0.20
ARCH(1)    11.80   5.40   0.60
Normality  17.60   9.20   0.60
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.90   3.90   0.00
Joint      37.20  20.90   1.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  1:59.92
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** Bc(delta=0, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      1.0432
Potency (%)                   99.2150
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)             19.8430
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0480
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0470
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.7980
ESE final model                0.9668
ESE DGP                        0.9996
Final equals DGP (% reps)     42.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   87.1000
Gauge (significant only)       0.9852
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.1000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     46.2000
Both dominated at 5%           0.1000


       I:81   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100
Hits   99.3   99.5   99.3   99.2   99.2   99.5   99.5   98.7   99.5   99.4   99.6   98.5   99.4   99.4   98.9   99.2   99.2   99.3   98.5   99.2

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1   21   71  907


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.80   4.80   0.80
ARCH(1)    17.70  12.10   5.20
Normality  38.20  26.50  10.90
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      55.90  39.30  16.30

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.20   4.20   0.00
ARCH(1)    17.30  10.40   1.90
Normality  15.50   7.80   1.50
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      37.10  21.00   3.40

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.10   3.70   0.00
ARCH(1)    17.10  10.50   1.90
Normality  15.50   7.90   1.50
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      37.10  20.90   3.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  5:57.79
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** B20(delta=0, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=101 #sig=0 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      1.4733
Potency (%)                      .NaN
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        0.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    101.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)              0.0000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0260
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0260
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.4620
ESE final model                0.9465
ESE DGP                        0.9979
Final equals DGP (% reps)     29.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)  100.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.4475
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     70.9000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000

No Hits: DGP empty
Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
  291  304  228   88   40   21   13    9    2    1    1    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.70   4.40   0.90
ARCH(1)     7.80   3.50   1.10
Normality   9.50   5.10   1.40
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   8.80   4.80   1.10
Joint      30.90  15.90   4.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.70   5.10   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.90   3.90   0.00
Normality   3.00   0.80   0.00
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.20   2.20   0.00
Joint      24.60  11.70   0.00

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.50   4.70   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.90   3.90   0.00
Normality   3.00   0.80   0.00
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.10   2.20   0.00
Joint      24.50  11.30   0.00

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  6:35.59
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** B20(delta=0, gamma=1, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      1.1864
Potency (%)                    4.4700
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)              0.8940
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0490
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0310
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.9300
ESE final model                1.0215
ESE DGP                        0.9974
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.1481
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        1.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      0.0000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        I:1    I:6   I:11   I:16   I:21   I:26   I:31   I:36   I:41   I:46   I:51   I:56   I:61   I:66   I:71   I:76   I:81   I:86   I:91   I:96
Hits    4.1    4.5    4.1    4.6    5.0    4.4    5.1    4.3    5.0    4.8    4.5    3.9    5.5    3.7    4.6    4.1    3.8    4.6    4.4    4.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
  228  283  215  129   68   38   16   10    7    2    0    1    1    0    1    0    1    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.80   5.20   1.10
ARCH(1)     8.00   2.70   0.50
Normality  38.50  26.10  12.30
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.00   1.20   0.10
Joint      51.80  32.50  13.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.40   4.60   0.00
ARCH(1)     7.70   4.00   0.00
Normality   4.80   2.00   0.00
Hetero      0.60   0.30   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.60   1.60   0.00
Joint      24.90  12.10   0.00

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.30   4.30   0.00
ARCH(1)     7.20   4.00   0.10
Normality   4.80   2.00   0.00
Hetero      0.50   0.20   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.50   1.50   0.00
Joint      24.40  11.80   0.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  7:09.87
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** B20(delta=0, gamma=2, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      0.9975
Potency (%)                   11.8350
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.3670
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1540
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0300
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.7780
ESE final model                1.1838
ESE DGP                        0.9974
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       0.9605
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        6.3000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      0.0000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        I:1    I:6   I:11   I:16   I:21   I:26   I:31   I:36   I:41   I:46   I:51   I:56   I:61   I:66   I:71   I:76   I:81   I:86   I:91   I:96
Hits   11.6   10.9   11.4   12.1   13.1   10.6   12.7   12.0   12.4   11.9   11.4   12.3   12.8   12.2   10.2   10.5   10.5   11.7   13.3   13.1

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
   66  180  247  175  101   75   62   31   18   19    8    7    9    1    0    1    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.80   5.20   1.10
ARCH(1)     8.00   2.70   0.50
Normality  38.50  26.10  12.30
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.00   1.20   0.10
Joint      51.80  32.50  13.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      13.60   7.20   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.20   3.80   0.00
Normality  12.10   7.20   0.00
Hetero      1.40   0.50   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.60   0.70   0.00
Joint      32.70  18.70   0.00

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      14.20   7.30   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.80   4.10   0.00
Normality  11.90   6.90   0.00
Hetero      1.40   0.50   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.50   0.70   0.00
Joint      33.80  19.00   0.00

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  9:27.36
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** B20(delta=0, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      0.8531
Potency (%)                   32.3750
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)              6.4750
Insignificant (avg no)         0.5860
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0800
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.6110
ESE final model                1.2972
ESE DGP                        0.9974
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       0.7543
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       13.5000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      0.2000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        I:1    I:6   I:11   I:16   I:21   I:26   I:31   I:36   I:41   I:46   I:51   I:56   I:61   I:66   I:71   I:76   I:81   I:86   I:91   I:96
Hits   32.2   30.7   32.0   32.8   34.3   32.3   34.1   32.4   32.0   34.6   31.0   31.8   34.8   31.8   31.6   31.3   32.1   32.2   30.3   33.2

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    7   69   89   95   95   83   66   70   70   58   55   47   51   32   37   29   16   12    6    9    4


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.80   5.20   1.10
ARCH(1)     8.00   2.70   0.50
Normality  38.50  26.10  12.30
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.00   1.20   0.10
Joint      51.80  32.50  13.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      20.90  11.50   0.10
ARCH(1)     9.80   3.70   0.00
Normality  50.20  37.20   1.70
Hetero      0.90   0.60   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.40   0.40   0.00
Joint      62.20  45.60   1.80

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      20.50  10.20   0.10
ARCH(1)     9.50   3.40   0.00
Normality  48.20  33.50   1.70
Hetero      0.80   0.50   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.50   0.40   0.00
Joint      60.80  41.00   1.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 15:26.35
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** B20(delta=0, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      0.9914
Potency (%)                   73.8400
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)             14.7680
Insignificant (avg no)         0.6210
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.3300
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.4730
ESE final model                1.1651
ESE DGP                        0.9974
Final equals DGP (% reps)      2.9000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    7.8000
Gauge (significant only)       0.5840
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        3.9000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      6.8000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        I:1    I:6   I:11   I:16   I:21   I:26   I:31   I:36   I:41   I:46   I:51   I:56   I:61   I:66   I:71   I:76   I:81   I:86   I:91   I:96
Hits   74.0   73.7   74.4   72.8   74.1   73.3   69.5   72.0   74.9   74.6   75.1   76.6   74.9   73.1   73.7   74.7   73.0   73.8   74.5   74.1

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    2    3   11    5   11   12   14   15   22   24   37   49   54   80   83   95  109  113  108  153


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.80   5.20   1.10
ARCH(1)     8.00   2.70   0.50
Normality  38.50  26.10  12.30
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.00   1.20   0.10
Joint      51.80  32.50  13.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.60   5.50   0.00
ARCH(1)     5.50   1.90   0.10
Normality  57.20  42.50   8.90
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.30   0.50   0.00
Joint      64.50  47.00   9.00

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.20   4.90   0.00
ARCH(1)     5.50   2.00   0.10
Normality  56.10  39.30   8.90
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.30   0.50   0.00
Joint      63.40  43.80   9.00

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 19:09.27
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** B20(delta=0, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      1.0247
Potency (%)                   94.7700
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)             18.9540
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1250
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0910
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.7390
ESE final model                1.0218
ESE DGP                        0.9974
Final equals DGP (% reps)     25.8000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   60.1000
Gauge (significant only)       0.9123
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     35.6000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        I:1    I:6   I:11   I:16   I:21   I:26   I:31   I:36   I:41   I:46   I:51   I:56   I:61   I:66   I:71   I:76   I:81   I:86   I:91   I:96
Hits   94.3   95.7   94.4   94.1   95.3   93.0   93.5   93.7   95.7   95.0   95.9   94.7   95.0   94.6   94.3   96.5   94.8   94.5   95.7   94.7

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    2    2    0    3    1    1    2    2    1    1    5    6   15   28   42   77  126  686


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.80   5.20   1.10
ARCH(1)     8.00   2.70   0.50
Normality  38.50  26.10  12.30
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.00   1.20   0.10
Joint      51.80  32.50  13.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.80   4.90   0.00
ARCH(1)     7.30   2.80   0.10
Normality  33.90  26.20  14.20
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.30   0.00
Joint      44.80  32.10  14.30

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.60   4.80   0.00
ARCH(1)     7.20   2.80   0.10
Normality  34.00  26.20  14.20
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.30   0.00
Joint      44.70  31.90  14.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  4:18.47
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** Bc(delta=1, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      0.3775
Potency (%)                   54.7850
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)             10.9570
Insignificant (avg no)         3.0370
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0890
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2130
ESE final model                1.1559
ESE DGP                        0.9998
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.4000
Gauge (significant only)       0.2662
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       40.1000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      0.8000
Both dominated at 5%           0.1000


       I:81   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100
Hits   52.2   54.3   55.4   54.2   57.0   55.8   52.6   55.1   56.5   55.9   53.1   55.0   53.3   55.5   58.9   54.4   53.5   55.6   51.8   55.6

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    0    4    9   37   76  142  159  182  147   75   58   32   25   14   13   27


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.10   5.20   0.90
ARCH(1)    17.00  12.10   4.70
Normality  39.20  26.50  11.40
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      56.80  39.50  16.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      57.80  43.50   0.10
ARCH(1)     9.00   3.70   0.10
Normality  12.70   6.20   0.00
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  57.70  45.70   0.00
Joint      78.80  66.20   0.20

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      42.30  31.00   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.40   4.20   0.10
Normality  12.50   5.80   0.20
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  46.30  36.70   0.00
Joint      64.20  51.70   0.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  2:23.44
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** Bc(delta=1, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      0.7187
Potency (%)                   86.2550
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)             17.2510
Insignificant (avg no)         0.3840
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0320
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.5430
ESE final model                1.0499
ESE DGP                        0.9998
Final equals DGP (% reps)      9.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   24.8000
Gauge (significant only)       0.6788
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        1.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     19.4000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


       I:81   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100
Hits   85.3   85.4   85.8   87.0   87.3   85.2   86.0   86.3   86.9   87.2   85.8   86.4   85.6   87.8   86.5   87.1   84.1   87.2   85.6   86.6

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    2    7   35   62   37   47   47   49   74  133  507


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.10   5.20   0.90
ARCH(1)    17.00  12.10   4.70
Normality  39.20  26.50  11.40
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      56.80  39.50  16.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      17.60  10.80   0.00
ARCH(1)    10.50   5.30   0.30
Normality  18.90   9.30   1.10
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  13.40  10.70   0.00
Joint      43.00  28.60   1.40

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      17.00  10.20   0.00
ARCH(1)    10.60   5.40   0.30
Normality  19.00   9.40   1.10
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  13.00  10.50   0.00
Joint      42.50  28.00   1.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  2:05.95
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** Bc(delta=1, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      1.0950
Potency (%)                   99.0950
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)             19.8190
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0410
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0410
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.8350
ESE final model                0.9659
ESE DGP                        0.9998
Final equals DGP (% reps)     37.4000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   85.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.0438
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     49.2000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


       I:81   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100
Hits   99.4   99.1   98.8   99.1   99.3   99.7   99.1   98.7   99.3   99.4   99.5   98.2   99.1   99.3   98.7   99.5   99.1   99.0   98.5   99.1

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    0    0    1   21  977


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.10   5.20   0.90
ARCH(1)    17.00  12.10   4.70
Normality  39.20  26.50  11.40
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      56.80  39.50  16.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.10   4.90   0.00
ARCH(1)    16.60  10.00   0.70
Normality  14.60   7.40   1.30
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      36.20  20.80   2.00

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.00   4.50   0.10
ARCH(1)    16.40   9.70   0.70
Normality  14.60   7.60   1.30
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      36.10  20.50   2.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 11:41.40
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** Bct(delta=1, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      1.9438
Potency (%)                   41.4905
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)              8.7130
Insignificant (avg no)         5.2730
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.7670
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.7880
ESE final model                1.1068
ESE DGP                        1.0003
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.2000
Gauge (significant only)       0.9850
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       60.9000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      1.2000
Both dominated at 5%           0.7000


       I:81   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  Trend
Hits   34.8   42.8   43.7   41.6   44.0   41.8   39.9   42.3   41.6   39.3   38.6   39.1   38.1   36.8   38.5   35.3   34.4   35.6   33.0   30.7   99.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    1    4   21   23   50   66   85   93   98  103   95   87   93   60   39   29   11   11   31


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   6.00   0.90
ARCH(1)    18.20  12.60   5.20
Normality  39.00  26.90  11.60
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      58.00  41.20  17.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      81.40  70.60   0.10
ARCH(1)     7.90   2.60   0.00
Normality   3.40   1.10   0.00
Hetero      9.70   5.10   0.00
Chow(70%)  57.60  43.10   0.00
Joint      88.70  80.20   0.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      42.40  26.60   0.10
ARCH(1)     6.70   2.50   0.20
Normality   4.30   1.90   0.10
Hetero      7.90   4.10   0.00
Chow(70%)  28.90  20.50   0.00
Joint      53.90  35.90   0.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  8:14.31
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** Bct(delta=1, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      1.0575
Potency (%)                   76.4429
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)             16.0530
Insignificant (avg no)         2.8470
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1730
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.6730
ESE final model                1.0775
ESE DGP                        1.0003
Final equals DGP (% reps)      6.5000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   19.9000
Gauge (significant only)       0.8413
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       17.4000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     17.9000
Both dominated at 5%           1.1000


       I:81   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  Trend
Hits   73.8   76.4   78.2   78.3   78.4   77.8   75.3   76.7   77.8   76.1   73.9   74.0   75.5   75.5   76.0   72.8   72.9   75.3   72.4   72.8   95.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    3   11   12   33   56  110   95   69   51   34   34   38  454


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   6.00   0.90
ARCH(1)    18.20  12.60   5.20
Normality  39.00  26.90  11.60
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      58.00  41.20  17.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      45.10  38.60   0.00
ARCH(1)    10.70   5.50   0.40
Normality   8.30   4.10   0.10
Hetero     24.90  17.30   0.00
Chow(70%)  30.40  23.40   0.00
Joint      63.20  54.10   0.50

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      36.70  28.60   0.00
ARCH(1)    11.50   5.80   0.50
Normality   8.60   4.40   0.30
Hetero     23.50  16.20   0.10
Chow(70%)  25.30  17.50   0.00
Joint      57.30  44.70   0.90

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  5:17.14
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** Bct(delta=1, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      1.1613
Potency (%)                   97.5381
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)             20.4830
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1550
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0520
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.8770
ESE final model                0.9736
ESE DGP                        1.0003
Final equals DGP (% reps)     29.8000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   72.8000
Gauge (significant only)       1.0962
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.9000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     46.8000
Both dominated at 5%           0.5000


       I:81   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  Trend
Hits   98.2   98.3   97.6   98.2   98.4   98.2   98.3   97.6   97.7   98.3   98.0   97.7   98.0   97.6   97.3   97.6   97.7   97.6   95.8   97.5   92.7

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    2    8    1    2    7    4    4   10  962


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   6.00   0.90
ARCH(1)    18.20  12.60   5.20
Normality  39.00  26.90  11.60
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      58.00  41.20  17.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.10   6.00   0.00
ARCH(1)    17.60  10.00   1.00
Normality  13.80   6.80   1.30
Hetero      3.30   2.30   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.20   1.00   0.00
Joint      38.30  22.70   2.30

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.10   5.80   0.00
ARCH(1)    17.50   9.80   1.00
Normality  13.60   6.80   1.30
Hetero      3.20   2.10   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.20   1.00   0.00
Joint      38.00  22.10   2.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 15:56.18
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MBc(delta=1, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      0.4800
Potency (%)                   35.0350
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)              7.0070
Insignificant (avg no)         2.0170
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2170
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1670
ESE final model                1.2709
ESE DGP                        0.9973
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.1000
Gauge (significant only)       0.2087
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       30.8000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      0.3000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        I:1    I:2    I:3    I:4   I:24   I:25   I:26   I:27   I:49   I:50   I:51   I:52   I:74   I:75   I:76   I:77   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100
Hits   32.4   37.5   37.2   32.0   36.3   41.6   36.9   34.0   30.1   36.9   33.2   28.5   31.4   35.4   35.8   33.9   34.1   39.5   38.1   35.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    6   23   51   72   92  109  113  118   98   68   54   44   30   32   23   24   16   14    5    8


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.50   4.60   1.00
ARCH(1)    14.30   9.10   3.80
Normality  38.10  25.50  11.80
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.50   0.20   0.00
Joint      53.50  35.50  16.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      73.10  61.00   0.70
ARCH(1)    20.40  12.30   0.40
Normality  43.90  30.90   0.90
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   6.70   2.60   0.00
Joint      86.60  76.60   1.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      62.20  45.00   0.70
ARCH(1)    19.30  11.40   1.10
Normality  42.90  26.80   1.00
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.60   2.20   0.00
Joint      80.50  62.80   2.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 26:34.93
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MBc(delta=1, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      0.8037
Potency (%)                   72.5100
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)             14.5020
Insignificant (avg no)         0.8030
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2580
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.3850
ESE final model                1.1698
ESE DGP                        0.9973
Final equals DGP (% reps)      3.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    9.4000
Gauge (significant only)       0.4813
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        7.5000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      9.2000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        I:1    I:2    I:3    I:4   I:24   I:25   I:26   I:27   I:49   I:50   I:51   I:52   I:74   I:75   I:76   I:77   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100
Hits   72.5   76.0   74.6   72.5   73.3   76.8   72.9   72.1   70.6   72.0   71.5   68.4   69.7   69.7   69.7   70.5   71.3   76.6   74.2   75.3

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    6    1    1    2    7    9   16   27   32   31   39   51   63   63   53   71   77   89   91  271


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.50   4.60   1.00
ARCH(1)    14.30   9.10   3.80
Normality  38.10  25.50  11.80
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.50   0.20   0.00
Joint      53.50  35.50  16.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      26.40  19.10   0.70
ARCH(1)    12.80   6.90   1.20
Normality  54.30  40.60   9.50
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.90   2.40   0.00
Joint      64.50  50.10   9.90

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      24.10  16.80   0.70
ARCH(1)    12.10   6.30   1.40
Normality  53.90  39.00   9.60
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.50   2.10   0.00
Joint      63.80  48.30  10.20

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 26:58.11
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MBc(delta=1, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      0.9838
Potency (%)                   91.9150
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)             18.3830
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1730
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1220
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.6650
ESE final model                1.0565
ESE DGP                        0.9973
Final equals DGP (% reps)     24.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   58.4000
Gauge (significant only)       0.8313
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.9000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     36.2000
Both dominated at 5%           0.2000


        I:1    I:2    I:3    I:4   I:24   I:25   I:26   I:27   I:49   I:50   I:51   I:52   I:74   I:75   I:76   I:77   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100
Hits   92.5   91.0   92.3   91.6   91.6   93.2   91.3   92.1   91.4   92.3   90.9   90.1   90.9   91.4   92.5   90.6   93.2   93.6   92.4   93.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0   16    5    2    0    0    1    1    2    5    6    5    2    8    7    9   19   29   43   58  782


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.50   4.60   1.00
ARCH(1)    14.30   9.10   3.80
Normality  38.10  25.50  11.80
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.50   0.20   0.00
Joint      53.50  35.50  16.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      14.10   8.90   2.40
ARCH(1)    12.70   7.30   2.80
Normality  34.20  27.10  15.70
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.60   0.70   0.00
Joint      49.20  35.50  16.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      13.60   8.20   2.40
ARCH(1)    12.40   7.20   2.80
Normality  34.40  27.10  15.70
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.60   0.70   0.00
Joint      48.90  35.20  16.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 11:55.01
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MBct(delta=1, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      0.4562
Potency (%)                   38.1810
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)              8.0180
Insignificant (avg no)         1.9300
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1530
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2120
ESE final model                1.2696
ESE DGP                        0.9978
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.1000
Gauge (significant only)       0.2650
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       33.3000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      0.2000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        I:1    I:2    I:3    I:4   I:24   I:25   I:26   I:27   I:49   I:50   I:51   I:52   I:74   I:75   I:76   I:77   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  Trend
Hits   33.9   36.5   38.1   33.4   34.9   42.3   38.0   34.1   30.9   37.9   33.6   29.6   28.2   29.1   38.1   37.1   36.6   40.8   40.0   37.3   91.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    5   19   48   82   96   98  115  105  100   80   64   43   33   32   23   19    9   13   16


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.80   4.50   1.30
ARCH(1)    14.80   8.90   3.70
Normality  37.20  25.80  12.20
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      52.70  35.50  16.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      72.40  60.30   0.40
ARCH(1)    19.90  10.70   0.30
Normality  40.90  29.20   0.60
Hetero      1.80   0.50   0.00
Chow(70%)  11.30   5.80   0.00
Joint      85.30  74.90   1.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      59.40  41.40   0.50
ARCH(1)    18.70  10.90   0.90
Normality  40.70  26.60   0.60
Hetero      1.50   0.50   0.00
Chow(70%)   9.90   4.70   0.00
Joint      79.10  60.60   1.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 15:09.89
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MBct(delta=1, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      0.7275
Potency (%)                   75.4381
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)             15.8420
Insignificant (avg no)         0.5870
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1110
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.4710
ESE final model                1.1440
ESE DGP                        0.9978
Final equals DGP (% reps)      4.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   11.9000
Gauge (significant only)       0.5887
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        8.9000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     11.9000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        I:1    I:2    I:3    I:4   I:24   I:25   I:26   I:27   I:49   I:50   I:51   I:52   I:74   I:75   I:76   I:77   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  Trend
Hits   73.8   76.1   75.7   74.9   75.5   77.7   75.5   73.1   73.3   76.0   71.1   71.8   72.6   71.5   76.7   76.3   74.5   77.3   73.8   75.7   91.3

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    1    0    0    0    2    3   11   19   19   48   34   43   45   63   46   45   65   82   79  395


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.80   4.50   1.30
ARCH(1)    14.80   8.90   3.70
Normality  37.20  25.80  12.20
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      52.70  35.50  16.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      27.40  19.70   0.30
ARCH(1)    14.50   8.50   0.10
Normality  41.30  29.00   4.50
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   6.70   3.30   0.00
Joint      58.40  43.10   4.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      24.00  15.80   0.30
ARCH(1)    13.90   7.60   0.10
Normality  41.40  28.30   4.60
Hetero      0.10   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.60   3.20   0.00
Joint      57.20  40.60   4.70

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 19:38.51
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MBct(delta=1, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      1.0088
Potency (%)                   95.9619
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)             20.1520
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0820
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0590
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.7480
ESE final model                1.0004
ESE DGP                        0.9978
Final equals DGP (% reps)     25.5000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   62.3000
Gauge (significant only)       0.9350
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.4000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     39.4000
Both dominated at 5%           0.1000


        I:1    I:2    I:3    I:4   I:24   I:25   I:26   I:27   I:49   I:50   I:51   I:52   I:74   I:75   I:76   I:77   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  Trend
Hits   95.6   94.9   95.1   95.5   96.1   96.5   93.8   94.8   96.1   96.3   95.6   94.2   96.8   96.5   97.8   96.7   96.7   97.5   96.7   96.8   95.2

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    2    1    1    1    2    6    7   18   28   28  905


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.80   4.50   1.30
ARCH(1)    14.80   8.90   3.70
Normality  37.20  25.80  12.20
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      52.70  35.50  16.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.00   5.00   0.00
ARCH(1)    10.00   4.90   0.30
Normality  26.90  17.60   5.70
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.60   0.50   0.00
Joint      42.60  25.90   5.90

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.70   4.50   0.00
ARCH(1)     9.80   4.80   0.30
Normality  27.00  17.80   5.70
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.60   0.50   0.00
Joint      42.50  25.50   5.90

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0

PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                     6.25

*** Bc(delta=1, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      0.0700
Potency (%)                    9.2600
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.8520
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0560
ESE final model                1.4682
ESE DGP                        0.9998
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       0.0700
F+DGP dominates F at 5%      100.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      5.0000
Both dominated at 5%           5.0000
       I:81   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100
Hits    8.3   10.6    8.5   10.1    9.7    9.5    9.0   10.3    9.6    9.4    9.3    8.2    9.5    7.5   10.3   10.4    8.4    8.5    8.7    9.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0  291  267  160  109   65   45   18   18    7    5    3    7    2    1    1    0    1    0    0    0
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.10   5.20   0.90
ARCH(1)    17.00  12.10   4.70
Normality  39.20  26.50  11.40
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      56.80  39.50  16.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      99.20  98.80  97.90
ARCH(1)    87.50  82.00  68.10
Normality  78.70  68.20  47.80
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  99.10  98.70  98.00
Joint      99.50  99.10  98.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                     6.73

*** Bc(delta=1, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      0.0588
Potency (%)                   12.1650
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.4330
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0470
ESE final model                1.7512
ESE DGP                        0.9998
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    1.4000
Gauge (significant only)       0.0588
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       98.3000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      2.5000
Both dominated at 5%           1.2000
       I:81   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100
Hits   11.5   13.1   11.8   12.3   12.4   12.5   11.4   12.3   12.4   12.3   11.9   11.8   12.7   10.5   12.9   12.8   11.9   12.5   11.6   12.7

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0  338  237  143   82   57   35   22   19    7    5    2    2    4    3    6    5    4    1    6   22
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.10   5.20   0.90
ARCH(1)    17.00  12.10   4.70
Normality  39.20  26.50  11.40
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      56.80  39.50  16.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      95.90  95.40  95.10
ARCH(1)    94.60  93.70  91.00
Normality  96.10  94.50  91.10
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  95.90  95.30  94.90
Joint      97.40  96.40  95.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                     7.09

*** Bc(delta=1, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      0.1087
Potency (%)                   13.7050
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.7410
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0870
ESE final model                2.0578
ESE DGP                        0.9998
Final equals DGP (% reps)      2.5000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    6.2000
Gauge (significant only)       0.1087
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       93.8000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      4.8000
Both dominated at 5%           1.1000
       I:81   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100
Hits   13.3   14.4   14.2   13.5   14.3   14.7   13.4   13.4   14.0   14.2   13.9   12.8   14.2   12.5   14.3   13.5   13.4   13.6   13.1   13.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0  419  226  128   65   30   23   15    7    1    0    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    3   82
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.10   5.20   0.90
ARCH(1)    17.00  12.10   4.70
Normality  39.20  26.50  11.40
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      56.80  39.50  16.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      92.60  91.90  91.60
ARCH(1)    93.10  92.80  92.00
Normality  92.30  91.60  91.50
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  91.50  91.50  91.50
Joint      94.60  93.30  92.20

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                     6.31

*** Bct(delta=1, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      0.6875
Potency (%)                    6.8857
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.4460
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.5500
ESE final model                1.2832
ESE DGP                        1.0003
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       0.6875
F+DGP dominates F at 5%      100.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     39.3000
Both dominated at 5%          39.3000
       I:81   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  Trend
Hits    3.5    3.2    3.8    3.0    3.3    2.8    2.3    3.0    2.0    1.6    2.7    1.5    1.4    1.5    2.3    1.3    1.2    1.7    1.0    1.5  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0  435  309  157   46   37   11    3    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   6.00   0.90
ARCH(1)    18.20  12.60   5.20
Normality  39.00  26.90  11.60
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      58.00  41.20  17.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      99.60  98.70  95.60
ARCH(1)    19.80  12.00   3.90
Normality   4.40   1.90   0.10
Hetero     59.80  46.70  20.80
Chow(70%)  99.50  99.40  96.50
Joint      99.90  99.70  98.60

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                     6.27

*** Bct(delta=1, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      0.4038
Potency (%)                    6.4381
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.3520
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.3230
ESE final model                1.5023
ESE DGP                        1.0003
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       0.4038
F+DGP dominates F at 5%      100.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     26.5000
Both dominated at 5%          26.5000
       I:81   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  Trend
Hits    3.3    3.0    3.1    2.6    2.8    2.2    1.7    2.3    1.7    1.0    1.9    1.3    1.1    0.9    1.7    0.9    0.7    1.0    0.8    1.2  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0  553  293  103   34   13    3    0    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   6.00   0.90
ARCH(1)    18.20  12.60   5.20
Normality  39.00  26.90  11.60
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      58.00  41.20  17.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)     100.00 100.00 100.00
ARCH(1)    44.00  34.80  18.70
Normality   6.30   2.10   0.20
Hetero     96.00  91.10  73.50
Chow(70%) 100.00 100.00 100.00
Joint     100.00 100.00 100.00

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                     6.31

*** Bct(delta=1, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      0.2050
Potency (%)                    5.7905
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.2160
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1640
ESE final model                1.7468
ESE DGP                        1.0003
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       0.2050
F+DGP dominates F at 5%      100.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     14.8000
Both dominated at 5%          14.8000
       I:81   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  Trend
Hits    2.7    2.4    2.3    1.8    1.8    1.6    1.0    1.4    0.8    0.8    0.6    0.8    0.5    0.2    0.6    0.3    0.5    0.4    0.2    0.9  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0  713  214   57   13    2    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   6.00   0.90
ARCH(1)    18.20  12.60   5.20
Normality  39.00  26.90  11.60
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      58.00  41.20  17.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)     100.00 100.00 100.00
ARCH(1)    75.60  65.50  47.50
Normality   9.70   4.00   0.20
Hetero    100.00  99.90  98.10
Chow(70%) 100.00 100.00 100.00
Joint     100.00 100.00 100.00

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                     6.35

*** MBc(delta=1, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      0.0813
Potency (%)                    9.9800
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.9960
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0650
ESE final model                1.4520
ESE DGP                        0.9973
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       0.0813
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       99.8000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      6.1000
Both dominated at 5%           6.0000
        I:1    I:2    I:3    I:4   I:24   I:25   I:26   I:27   I:49   I:50   I:51   I:52   I:74   I:75   I:76   I:77   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100
Hits    8.0    9.8   11.4   10.9    9.5    9.7    9.4   10.7    9.7   11.7    9.7   11.0    9.6    8.8    8.7   10.7    8.5   10.7    9.9   11.2

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0  255  256  190  120   69   33   28   18    7    7    4    3    3    3    1    1    1    0    1    0
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.50   4.60   1.00
ARCH(1)    14.30   9.10   3.80
Normality  38.10  25.50  11.80
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.50   0.20   0.00
Joint      53.50  35.50  16.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      94.90  91.50  82.40
ARCH(1)    73.70  63.40  45.00
Normality  75.60  67.30  45.30
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  18.60   9.30   1.00
Joint      98.10  95.60  87.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                     6.71

*** MBc(delta=1, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      0.0563
Potency (%)                   13.0350
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.6070
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0450
ESE final model                1.7309
ESE DGP                        0.9973
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.3000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    1.2000
Gauge (significant only)       0.0563
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       98.6000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      2.6000
Both dominated at 5%           1.6000
        I:1    I:2    I:3    I:4   I:24   I:25   I:26   I:27   I:49   I:50   I:51   I:52   I:74   I:75   I:76   I:77   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100
Hits   11.0   12.5   14.5   13.8   13.0   13.5   13.6   13.8   13.2   14.6   12.6   13.6   12.8   11.7   11.2   13.8   11.6   13.7   12.1   14.1

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0  295  242  168   90   57   31   23   12   11    7    6    2    6    7    4    5    2    4    5   23
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.50   4.60   1.00
ARCH(1)    14.30   9.10   3.80
Normality  38.10  25.50  11.80
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.50   0.20   0.00
Joint      53.50  35.50  16.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      94.00  93.20  91.30
ARCH(1)    89.70  86.70  80.40
Normality  94.60  93.60  89.90
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  23.30  10.90   1.10
Joint      95.80  94.80  93.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                     7.12

*** MBc(delta=1, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=20 cp=101 cp_orig=101

Gauge (%)                      0.1175
Potency (%)                   14.1650
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       20.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         101.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.8330
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0940
ESE final model                2.0411
ESE DGP                        0.9973
Final equals DGP (% reps)      2.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    6.0000
Gauge (significant only)       0.1175
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       93.6000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      4.9000
Both dominated at 5%           1.1000
        I:1    I:2    I:3    I:4   I:24   I:25   I:26   I:27   I:49   I:50   I:51   I:52   I:74   I:75   I:76   I:77   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100
Hits   12.5   14.4   15.2   14.9   14.6   14.7   14.4   14.6   14.8   15.0   13.7   15.4   13.8   12.5   12.7   14.7   13.7   14.1   13.0   14.6

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0  370  259  135   72   37   21    5    7    4    3    0    1    0    0    0    0    1    1    2   82
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.50   4.60   1.00
ARCH(1)    14.30   9.10   3.80
Normality  38.10  25.50  11.80
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.50   0.20   0.00
Joint      53.50  35.50  16.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      92.40  91.90  91.40
ARCH(1)    92.30  91.50  89.40
Normality  92.00  91.60  91.40
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  27.70  12.30   0.90
Joint      94.30  93.10  92.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                     6.64

*** MBct(delta=1, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      0.0875
Potency (%)                   13.6810
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.8730
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0700
ESE final model                1.4595
ESE DGP                        0.9978
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       0.0875
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       99.9000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      6.4000
Both dominated at 5%           6.3000
        I:1    I:2    I:3    I:4   I:24   I:25   I:26   I:27   I:49   I:50   I:51   I:52   I:74   I:75   I:76   I:77   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  Trend
Hits    7.5    8.7   10.1   10.5    9.1    8.8    8.5    9.8    9.4   11.5    9.6    9.8   10.1    8.9    8.8   10.1   10.8   12.0   10.6   12.5   90.2

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0   13  263  261  184  110   68   33   24   14    9    6    2    2    3    3    2    1    2    0    0
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.80   4.50   1.30
ARCH(1)    14.80   8.90   3.70
Normality  37.20  25.80  12.20
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      52.70  35.50  16.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      95.00  92.30  83.60
ARCH(1)    73.20  63.70  43.90
Normality  74.50  64.80  45.10
Hetero     17.20   9.90   3.30
Chow(70%)  26.00  12.60   1.80
Joint      98.20  95.90  88.00

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                     7.19

*** MBct(delta=1, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      0.0375
Potency (%)                   15.6381
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.2840
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0300
ESE final model                1.7476
ESE DGP                        0.9978
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.2000
Gauge (significant only)       0.0375
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       99.4000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      2.1000
Both dominated at 5%           1.8000
        I:1    I:2    I:3    I:4   I:24   I:25   I:26   I:27   I:49   I:50   I:51   I:52   I:74   I:75   I:76   I:77   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  Trend
Hits    7.8    9.4   10.7   10.2   10.3   11.3   10.7   10.8   12.9   13.4   11.9   13.1   15.2   13.8   13.2   15.7   17.2   18.6   17.0   18.4   66.8

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0   63  290  225  146   79   54   26   27   10    6    9   11    7   10    9    5    1    2    6   14
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.80   4.50   1.30
ARCH(1)    14.80   8.90   3.70
Normality  37.20  25.80  12.20
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      52.70  35.50  16.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      95.00  94.40  92.60
ARCH(1)    89.20  86.50  77.90
Normality  93.60  92.10  87.00
Hetero     15.50   9.00   3.50
Chow(70%)  31.60  15.90   3.10
Joint      96.80  96.00  94.00

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                     7.93

*** MBct(delta=1, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      0.1463
Potency (%)                   18.4810
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.8810
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1170
ESE final model                2.0285
ESE DGP                        0.9978
Final equals DGP (% reps)      2.4000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    6.4000
Gauge (significant only)       0.1463
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       93.3000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      5.9000
Both dominated at 5%           1.7000
        I:1    I:2    I:3    I:4   I:24   I:25   I:26   I:27   I:49   I:50   I:51   I:52   I:74   I:75   I:76   I:77   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  Trend
Hits   11.9   12.1   12.5   12.6   13.1   13.8   13.2   13.2   14.7   15.7   15.9   16.4   20.0   18.8   18.4   21.9   24.8   25.9   25.4   27.2   40.6

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0  151  314  179  116   49   33   19   12    5    7    1    4    5    3    2    1    2    6    2   89
Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.80   4.50   1.30
ARCH(1)    14.80   8.90   3.70
Normality  37.20  25.80  12.20
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      52.70  35.50  16.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      91.50  90.40  89.70
ARCH(1)    90.10  88.00  84.30
Normality  90.30  89.90  89.20
Hetero     10.70   6.30   2.50
Chow(70%)  33.50  16.50   2.00
Joint      93.70  91.80  90.20

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
