Ox Professional version 7.01 (Windows_64/U/MT) (C) J.A. Doornik, 1994-2013
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  6-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 33:00.76
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** IUc(delta=0.2, gamma=3, GUM_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=100 #sig=2 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.84
Potency (%)                   85.10
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables        2.00
GUM: irrelevant variables    100.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)              1.70
Insignificant (avg no)         0.04
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.03
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.80
ESE final model                0.94
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)     15.80
Final contains DGP (% reps)   70.20
Gauge (significant only)       1.80
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       67.30
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:181
Hits  100.0   70.2

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0  72 251 241 197 119  55  36  10   8   5   1   3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   5.50   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.70   4.00   0.00
Normality   2.60   0.60   0.00
Hetero      9.00   4.20   0.00
Chow(70%)   6.70   2.40   0.00
Joint      31.30  15.20   0.10


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.10   5.50   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.70   4.00   0.00
Normality   2.60   0.60   0.00
Hetero      8.80   4.10   0.00
Chow(70%)   6.70   2.40   0.00
Joint      31.20  15.20   0.10


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.90   5.70   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.70   4.10   0.00
Normality   2.60   0.50   0.00
Hetero      9.00   4.30   0.00
Chow(70%)   6.70   2.40   0.00
Joint      31.20  15.60   0.10


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.30   4.90   1.30
ARCH(1)     7.60   3.70   0.50
Normality   9.90   5.10   1.50
Hetero      9.00   4.50   1.30
Chow(70%)   8.80   3.40   1.00
Joint      35.70  19.10   5.30

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  6-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 35:04.35
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** IUc(delta=0.2, gamma=4, GUM_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=100 #sig=2 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.86
Potency (%)                   96.65
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables        2.00
GUM: irrelevant variables    100.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)              1.93
Insignificant (avg no)         0.04
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.04
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.82
ESE final model                0.93
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)     21.30
Final contains DGP (% reps)   93.30
Gauge (significant only)       1.82
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       74.40
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:181
Hits  100.0   93.3

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0  18 230 261 219 134  64  39  16   5   5   3   4   0   2   0   0   0   0   0


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.60   4.80   0.10
ARCH(1)     9.00   3.50   0.10
Normality   2.40   0.40   0.00
Hetero      8.70   3.80   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.80   1.70   0.00
Joint      29.60  13.40   0.20


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.90   4.90   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.90   3.50   0.10
Normality   2.60   0.50   0.00
Hetero      8.70   3.80   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.70   1.70   0.00
Joint      29.70  13.60   0.20


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.90   5.30   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.90   3.60   0.10
Normality   2.60   0.50   0.00
Hetero      9.10   4.20   0.00
Chow(70%)   6.00   2.00   0.00
Joint      30.10  14.50   0.10


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.50   4.90   1.30
ARCH(1)     7.50   3.90   0.40
Normality  10.00   5.20   1.50
Hetero      9.20   4.60   1.10
Chow(70%)   8.90   3.30   1.10
Joint      36.00  19.30   5.20

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  6-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 34:51.19
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** IUc(delta=0.2, gamma=5, GUM_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=100 #sig=2 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.82
Potency (%)                   99.75
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables        2.00
GUM: irrelevant variables    100.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)              2.00
Insignificant (avg no)         0.05
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.05
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.77
ESE final model                0.93
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)     23.70
Final contains DGP (% reps)   99.50
Gauge (significant only)       1.77
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       75.10
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:181
Hits  100.0   99.5

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   1 239 272 211 140  67  33  19   5   5   3   4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   4.40   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.60   3.70   0.10
Normality   2.70   0.70   0.00
Hetero      9.00   3.60   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.40   1.60   0.00
Joint      29.30  13.00   0.20


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.10   4.70   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.70   3.80   0.10
Normality   2.70   0.70   0.00
Hetero      9.10   3.60   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.40   1.60   0.00
Joint      29.40  13.30   0.20


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.30   5.00   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.70   3.70   0.10
Normality   2.70   0.70   0.00
Hetero      9.60   4.20   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.50   1.70   0.00
Joint      30.20  14.10   0.10


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.50   4.70   1.40
ARCH(1)     7.50   3.90   0.40
Normality  10.20   5.30   1.50
Hetero      9.00   4.80   1.20
Chow(70%)   9.10   3.30   1.10
Joint      36.40  19.40   5.40

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  6-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 41:22.49
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BUc(delta=0.2, gamma=3, GUM_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.50
Potency (%)                   21.36
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       21.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)              4.49
Insignificant (avg no)         1.03
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.27
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.94
ESE final model                1.06
ESE DGP                        0.99
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.80
Final contains DGP (% reps)    3.00
Gauge (significant only)       1.16
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.30
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)        2.50
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   48.1   44.5   36.7   32.7   29.5   22.6   21.7   16.5   13.9   11.0   10.0    7.2    6.7    6.5    6.8    5.3    6.2    6.6    6.9    9.2

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0  41  90 161 185 137 107  78  64  40  20  16   8  10   2   4   0   0   0  37


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      29.60  16.10   0.40
ARCH(1)     9.10   4.00   0.10
Normality   3.00   0.70   0.00
Hetero     21.80  11.90   0.00
Chow(70%)  60.40  41.60   0.30
Joint      76.40  54.80   0.70


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      30.80  16.90   0.40
ARCH(1)     8.90   4.30   0.10
Normality   3.00   0.80   0.00
Hetero     21.90  12.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  61.90  43.00   0.30
Joint      77.70  56.60   0.70


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      34.10  21.90   0.40
ARCH(1)     8.10   3.80   0.00
Normality   3.00   1.00   0.00
Hetero     26.10  14.00   0.10
Chow(70%)  68.80  52.70   0.20
Joint      82.90  67.50   0.60


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   5.00   1.20
ARCH(1)    16.10  10.40   4.50
Normality  37.10  26.00  11.40
Hetero      8.70   4.00   1.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      57.50  40.80  17.30

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  6-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 43:03.03
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BUc(delta=0.2, gamma=4, GUM_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.49
Potency (%)                   38.04
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       21.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)              7.99
Insignificant (avg no)         1.13
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.23
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.97
ESE final model                1.06
ESE DGP                        0.99
Final equals DGP (% reps)      3.10
Final contains DGP (% reps)   12.90
Gauge (significant only)       1.20
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       10.20
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   78.1   76.2   68.1   60.5   55.8   47.9   42.0   35.7   29.1   26.0   23.3   18.4   16.7   16.1   15.8   15.1   16.6   17.1   19.8   20.6

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   3  15  51  90 126 108 118 111  86  49  41  27  17  11   6   2   1   2 136


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      25.70  15.10   0.10
ARCH(1)    10.40   5.00   0.20
Normality   3.60   1.30   0.00
Hetero     30.70  18.10   0.30
Chow(70%)  48.40  33.20   0.30
Joint      69.20  49.70   0.80


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      26.60  15.70   0.10
ARCH(1)    10.30   4.90   0.20
Normality   3.50   1.30   0.00
Hetero     31.50  18.60   0.30
Chow(70%)  50.10  34.10   0.30
Joint      70.90  51.30   0.80


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      31.60  21.60   0.10
ARCH(1)     9.90   4.50   0.20
Normality   3.10   1.20   0.00
Hetero     36.80  24.50   0.30
Chow(70%)  57.20  43.90   0.30
Joint      76.30  63.60   0.80


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   5.00   1.20
ARCH(1)    16.10  10.40   4.50
Normality  37.10  26.00  11.40
Hetero      8.70   4.00   1.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      57.50  40.80  17.30

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  6-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 39:03.26
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BUc(delta=0.2, gamma=5, GUM_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.52
Potency (%)                   53.70
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       21.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)             11.28
Insignificant (avg no)         0.78
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.14
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.09
ESE final model                1.04
ESE DGP                        0.99
Final equals DGP (% reps)      6.20
Final contains DGP (% reps)   24.90
Gauge (significant only)       1.34
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.10
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       19.70
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   95.5   93.6   89.4   83.0   77.8   71.6   64.3   55.4   47.9   41.7   38.0   32.6   29.7   28.4   28.3   27.0   28.4   28.7   33.1   33.2

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   0   0   3  18  45  65 106 112 106 101  55  46  29  21  13  12   9   3 256


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      21.20  10.00   0.20
ARCH(1)    10.60   5.20   0.40
Normality   3.60   0.80   0.00
Hetero     33.00  20.20   0.00
Chow(70%)  31.10  21.10   0.10
Joint      60.80  40.20   0.70


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      22.20  10.80   0.20
ARCH(1)    10.50   5.10   0.40
Normality   3.50   0.80   0.00
Hetero     33.50  20.30   0.00
Chow(70%)  31.80  21.70   0.10
Joint      61.50  41.10   0.70


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      25.40  14.80   0.20
ARCH(1)    10.00   4.80   0.30
Normality   3.20   0.80   0.00
Hetero     38.60  26.70   0.00
Chow(70%)  36.40  26.70   0.10
Joint      66.80  51.10   0.60


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   5.00   1.20
ARCH(1)    16.10  10.40   4.50
Normality  37.10  26.00  11.40
Hetero      8.70   4.00   1.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      57.50  40.80  17.30

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  6-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 38:06.52
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** MIUc(delta=0.2, gamma=3, GUM_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=96 #sig=6 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.64
Potency (%)                   68.58
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables        6.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     96.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)              4.12
Insignificant (avg no)         0.06
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.04
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.53
ESE final model                0.97
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)      2.20
Final contains DGP (% reps)   14.60
Gauge (significant only)       1.59
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       32.30
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:101  I:124  I:149  I:174  I:197
Hits  100.0   59.3   64.4   62.9   63.5   61.4

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   9  44  96 163 200 165 133  85  59  21  11   5   4   3   0   2   0   0   0


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.00   3.80   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.20   4.20   0.00
Normality   2.00   0.60   0.00
Hetero     10.80   4.50   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.80   2.20   0.00
Joint      29.40  14.00   0.10


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.10   3.80   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.20   4.20   0.00
Normality   2.00   0.60   0.00
Hetero     11.10   4.50   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.80   2.30   0.00
Joint      29.60  14.10   0.10


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.10   4.40   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.20   4.30   0.00
Normality   1.90   0.60   0.00
Hetero     11.40   5.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   6.10   2.60   0.00
Joint      29.70  15.10   0.10


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   4.70   1.80
ARCH(1)     7.20   3.70   0.70
Normality  11.90   6.80   2.20
Hetero     11.10   5.70   1.10
Chow(70%)   4.70   2.10   0.50
Joint      36.00  20.10   6.00

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  6-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 42:28.10
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** MIUc(delta=0.2, gamma=4, GUM_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=96 #sig=6 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.81
Potency (%)                   92.08
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables        6.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     96.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)              5.53
Insignificant (avg no)         0.06
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.05
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.69
ESE final model                0.94
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)     13.80
Final contains DGP (% reps)   64.50
Gauge (significant only)       1.76
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       61.60
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:101  I:124  I:149  I:174  I:197
Hits  100.0   88.7   90.6   92.0   91.7   89.5

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   0   2   4  32 116 229 225 171 114  50  30   9   7   4   2   3   1   1   0


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.30   3.50   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.70   4.50   0.00
Normality   2.00   0.50   0.00
Hetero     10.30   4.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.10   0.90   0.00
Joint      28.30  12.50   0.10


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.40   3.50   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.70   4.60   0.00
Normality   2.00   0.50   0.00
Hetero     10.60   4.10   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.10   1.00   0.00
Joint      28.60  12.80   0.10


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.70   3.90   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.60   4.40   0.00
Normality   2.00   0.50   0.00
Hetero     10.80   4.70   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.20   1.00   0.00
Joint      28.80  13.50   0.10


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   4.70   1.80
ARCH(1)     7.20   3.60   0.70
Normality  11.70   6.90   2.10
Hetero     10.80   5.80   1.20
Chow(70%)   4.70   2.10   0.50
Joint      35.80  20.10   5.90

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  6-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 44:16.52
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** MIUc(delta=0.2, gamma=5, GUM_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=96 #sig=6 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.85
Potency (%)                   99.13
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables        6.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     96.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)              5.95
Insignificant (avg no)         0.06
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.06
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.72
ESE final model                0.94
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)     23.70
Final contains DGP (% reps)   94.80
Gauge (significant only)       1.79
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       72.50
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:101  I:124  I:149  I:174  I:197
Hits  100.0   98.7   98.7   99.5   98.8   99.1

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   0   0   0   0  15 255 261 213 136  48  37  13   8   5   4   2   2   1   0


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.30   4.60   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.20   4.40   0.00
Normality   1.30   0.30   0.00
Hetero     10.10   4.30   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.30   0.90   0.00
Joint      27.10  13.30   0.10


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.40   4.50   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.30   4.50   0.00
Normality   1.30   0.30   0.00
Hetero     10.10   4.40   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.30   0.90   0.00
Joint      27.20  13.40   0.10


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.50   5.30   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.00   4.50   0.00
Normality   1.30   0.30   0.00
Hetero     10.20   5.10   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.40   0.90   0.00
Joint      27.30  14.80   0.00


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.30   4.80   1.80
ARCH(1)     7.10   3.60   0.70
Normality  11.60   6.90   2.00
Hetero     10.80   5.60   1.20
Chow(70%)   4.40   2.20   0.40
Joint      35.80  19.80   5.80

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  6-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time               1:05:42.47
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** MBUc(delta=0.2, gamma=3, GUM_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      0.99
Potency (%)                   39.10
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       21.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)              8.21
Insignificant (avg no)         1.95
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.34
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.46
ESE final model                1.25
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.00
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.00
Gauge (significant only)       0.56
F+DGP dominates F (%)          1.80
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)        0.30
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:101  I:102  I:103  I:104  I:124  I:125  I:126  I:127  I:149  I:150  I:151  I:152  I:174  I:175  I:176  I:177  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   30.0   33.7   33.9   31.1   32.2   36.9   37.5   37.6   32.7   35.3   39.9   35.1   31.2   40.8   38.1   39.5   33.9   41.1   40.2   40.3

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   3  21  36  78  83  88  95 105  83  98  69  49  42  35  27  21  24  15  28


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      56.80  42.20   1.10
ARCH(1)    16.40   9.10   0.50
Normality  30.20  19.30   0.20
Hetero     23.40  11.30   0.10
Chow(70%)  10.70   4.40   0.20
Joint      75.90  58.30   1.40


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      61.30  43.40   1.10
ARCH(1)    16.30   9.30   0.40
Normality  31.50  20.30   0.20
Hetero     23.50  11.70   0.20
Chow(70%)  11.10   4.40   0.20
Joint      79.00  60.20   1.40


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      72.70  61.10   1.10
ARCH(1)    18.30  10.40   0.30
Normality  35.10  24.50   0.20
Hetero     27.50  15.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  12.90   5.20   0.10
Joint      86.10  76.20   1.20


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.40   4.90   1.50
ARCH(1)    12.50   9.20   3.80
Normality  36.30  26.20  12.60
Hetero     11.00   5.40   1.20
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      55.20  39.40  17.90

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time               1:41:02.27
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** MBUc(delta=0.2, gamma=4, GUM_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      2.58
Potency (%)                   71.84
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       21.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)             15.09
Insignificant (avg no)         2.08
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    1.37
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.71
ESE final model                1.17
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)      3.50
Final contains DGP (% reps)   12.50
Gauge (significant only)       0.88
F+DGP dominates F (%)          3.40
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       15.10
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:101  I:102  I:103  I:104  I:124  I:125  I:126  I:127  I:149  I:150  I:151  I:152  I:174  I:175  I:176  I:177  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   62.5   66.6   68.8   69.0   66.2   69.9   72.8   72.9   67.6   68.9   71.6   71.5   67.5   72.3   75.8   74.7   67.3   75.2   73.0   74.6

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   7   0   0   3   2   9  20  14  37  35  44  38  47  39  53  43  53  87 469


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      26.00  17.80   1.80
ARCH(1)    15.70   9.90   1.80
Normality  28.00  17.60   2.00
Hetero     24.30  13.70   0.10
Chow(70%)   4.00   1.70   0.00
Joint      57.20  39.40   3.90


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      27.60  18.40   1.80
ARCH(1)    15.40  10.30   1.70
Normality  29.80  18.60   1.80
Hetero     25.30  13.70   0.40
Chow(70%)   4.20   1.80   0.10
Joint      58.80  40.90   4.00


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      35.00  27.60   1.80
ARCH(1)    17.50  11.30   1.60
Normality  32.10  24.80   1.60
Hetero     29.40  18.60   0.10
Chow(70%)   6.10   3.50   0.00
Joint      61.20  48.50   3.30


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   4.90   1.50
ARCH(1)    12.50   9.40   3.80
Normality  36.30  26.50  12.90
Hetero     10.90   5.10   1.20
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      55.20  40.00  18.20

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time               1:37:32.14
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** MBUc(delta=0.2, gamma=5, GUM_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      3.42
Potency (%)                   87.97
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       21.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)             18.47
Insignificant (avg no)         2.02
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    1.74
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.03
ESE final model                1.10
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)     21.40
Final contains DGP (% reps)   64.70
Gauge (significant only)       1.27
F+DGP dominates F (%)          1.20
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       44.40
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:101  I:102  I:103  I:104  I:124  I:125  I:126  I:127  I:149  I:150  I:151  I:152  I:174  I:175  I:176  I:177  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   84.7   85.0   87.3   86.3   84.6   86.8   88.0   88.0   86.4   86.9   88.4   88.6   85.3   88.3   89.9   88.7   86.3   88.7   89.3   89.8

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0  27   5   3   3   0   0   0   1   1   5   1   2   4   7   2   8  13  13 905


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      20.70  13.30   4.70
ARCH(1)    19.50  14.20   5.20
Normality  19.00  14.50   7.00
Hetero     19.20  10.70   0.80
Chow(70%)   3.20   1.30   0.00
Joint      45.00  30.90   8.90


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      21.50  13.80   4.70
ARCH(1)    20.10  14.50   5.30
Normality  19.10  14.10   6.20
Hetero     19.60  11.20   0.80
Chow(70%)   3.40   1.30   0.00
Joint      45.30  31.00   8.20


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      23.70  18.90   4.70
ARCH(1)    20.60  14.50   5.10
Normality  19.40  15.00   5.80
Hetero     21.40  13.30   0.70
Chow(70%)   4.00   1.70   0.00
Joint      45.40  32.70   7.60


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   4.90   1.50
ARCH(1)    12.70   9.40   3.80
Normality  36.50  26.70  12.90
Hetero     10.80   5.30   1.10
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      55.20  40.30  18.10

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  6:30.60
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** IUc(delta=0.2, gamma=3, GUM_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=100 #sig=2 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.62
Potency (%)                   83.50
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables        2.00
GUM: irrelevant variables    100.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)              1.67
Insignificant (avg no)         0.14
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.14
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.49
ESE final model                0.95
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)     18.40
Final contains DGP (% reps)   67.00
Gauge (significant only)       1.49
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       40.30
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:181
Hits  100.0   67.0

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0 100 283 247 179  95  47  26   8   5   3   1   2   2   2   0   0   0   0   0


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.60   4.40   0.00
ARCH(1)     9.70   4.80   0.10
Normality   3.10   0.90   0.00
Hetero      1.30   0.70   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.20   1.70   0.00
Joint      25.50  12.10   0.10


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.60   4.40   0.00
ARCH(1)     9.80   4.70   0.10
Normality   3.10   0.90   0.00
Hetero      1.10   0.60   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.20   1.70   0.00
Joint      25.40  12.00   0.10


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.50   5.20   0.40
ARCH(1)     9.20   4.30   0.20
Normality   2.70   0.70   0.00
Hetero      7.10   3.20   0.50
Chow(70%)   6.30   1.90   0.00
Joint      29.30  14.50   1.10


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.30   4.90   1.30
ARCH(1)     7.60   3.70   0.50
Normality   9.90   5.10   1.50
Hetero      9.00   4.50   1.30
Chow(70%)   8.80   3.40   1.00
Joint      35.70  19.10   5.30

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  6:37.93
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** IUc(delta=0.2, gamma=4, GUM_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=100 #sig=2 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.62
Potency (%)                   95.60
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables        2.00
GUM: irrelevant variables    100.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)              1.91
Insignificant (avg no)         0.16
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.16
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.47
ESE final model                0.94
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)     25.40
Final contains DGP (% reps)   91.20
Gauge (significant only)       1.47
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       44.70
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:181
Hits  100.0   91.2

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0  31 278 266 201 114  61  24  10   4   4   2   2   1   2   0   0   0   0   0


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.20   4.20   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.80   4.00   0.10
Normality   2.80   0.40   0.00
Hetero      0.90   0.30   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.40   1.50   0.00
Joint      23.30  10.30   0.20


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.30   4.20   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.70   4.00   0.10
Normality   2.80   0.40   0.00
Hetero      0.90   0.30   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.40   1.50   0.00
Joint      23.30  10.30   0.20


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.40   4.60   0.50
ARCH(1)     7.70   3.90   0.20
Normality   2.80   0.50   0.00
Hetero      7.10   2.40   0.80
Chow(70%)   5.40   1.70   0.00
Joint      27.60  12.30   1.50


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.50   4.90   1.30
ARCH(1)     7.50   3.90   0.40
Normality  10.00   5.20   1.50
Hetero      9.20   4.60   1.10
Chow(70%)   8.90   3.30   1.10
Joint      36.00  19.30   5.20

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  6:46.41
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** IUc(delta=0.2, gamma=5, GUM_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=100 #sig=2 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.63
Potency (%)                   99.70
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables        2.00
GUM: irrelevant variables    100.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)              1.99
Insignificant (avg no)         0.16
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.16
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.47
ESE final model                0.94
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)     27.70
Final contains DGP (% reps)   99.40
Gauge (significant only)       1.47
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       45.50
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:181
Hits  100.0   99.4

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   2 280 282 207 114  64  21  13   6   5   2   1   1   2   0   0   0   0   0


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   4.50   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.60   4.10   0.10
Normality   3.30   0.80   0.00
Hetero      0.40   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.60   1.30   0.00
Joint      22.80  10.60   0.10


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   4.60   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.50   4.10   0.10
Normality   3.30   0.80   0.00
Hetero      0.50   0.10   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.60   1.30   0.00
Joint      22.80  10.60   0.10


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.50   4.50   0.40
ARCH(1)     7.70   3.70   0.40
Normality   3.00   0.80   0.00
Hetero      6.70   2.80   0.80
Chow(70%)   4.50   1.40   0.00
Joint      27.50  12.40   1.60


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.50   4.70   1.40
ARCH(1)     7.50   3.90   0.40
Normality  10.20   5.30   1.50
Hetero      9.00   4.80   1.20
Chow(70%)   9.10   3.30   1.10
Joint      36.40  19.40   5.40

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  6:45.70
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BUc(delta=0.2, gamma=3, GUM_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.04
Potency (%)                   24.01
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       21.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)              5.04
Insignificant (avg no)         1.39
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.17
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.68
ESE final model                1.07
ESE DGP                        0.99
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.60
Final contains DGP (% reps)    2.60
Gauge (significant only)       0.83
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.60
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)        2.90
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   48.5   47.0   38.8   33.3   32.5   26.6   23.6   19.6   18.0   15.5   14.4   11.9   10.7   10.1   10.3    8.5    8.7    8.3    8.9    9.0

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0  43  99 168 185 130 118  65  40  32  15  15  15   8   1   4   3   5   0  54


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      25.20  14.30   0.10
ARCH(1)     7.10   3.30   0.20
Normality   4.10   1.40   0.10
Hetero     18.10   8.90   0.10
Chow(70%)  45.20  30.90   0.10
Joint      63.20  44.50   0.60


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      28.30  16.60   0.10
ARCH(1)     7.70   3.20   0.10
Normality   4.50   1.40   0.10
Hetero     19.20  10.10   0.00
Chow(70%)  54.50  36.40   0.00
Joint      72.60  51.20   0.30


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      31.30  21.00   0.30
ARCH(1)     8.20   3.70   0.00
Normality   3.80   1.30   0.10
Hetero     24.00  14.20   0.10
Chow(70%)  64.30  48.80   0.10
Joint      80.90  66.90   0.60


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   5.00   1.20
ARCH(1)    16.10  10.40   4.50
Normality  37.10  26.00  11.40
Hetero      8.70   4.00   1.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      57.50  40.80  17.30

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  6:12.62
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BUc(delta=0.2, gamma=4, GUM_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.07
Potency (%)                   60.61
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       21.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)             12.73
Insignificant (avg no)         3.06
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.15
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.72
ESE final model                1.03
ESE DGP                        0.99
Final equals DGP (% reps)      6.90
Final contains DGP (% reps)   22.00
Gauge (significant only)       0.88
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       13.50
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   80.2   81.6   76.6   73.6   69.8   66.5   62.8   61.6   56.2   53.9   52.4   50.7   50.0   49.4   49.3   47.4   46.7   47.3   48.6   48.2

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   2  16  41  57  80  63  61  64  48  20  27  16  14   8   8   7  14  17 437


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      15.30   9.00   0.00
ARCH(1)     9.70   4.50   0.30
Normality   7.80   3.30   0.00
Hetero     14.20   7.60   0.20
Chow(70%)  18.70  13.70   0.00
Joint      45.80  28.70   0.50


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      17.50  10.20   0.00
ARCH(1)     9.50   4.20   0.30
Normality   7.60   3.20   0.00
Hetero     14.60   8.00   0.20
Chow(70%)  22.40  16.00   0.00
Joint      48.70  31.50   0.50


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      20.30  14.00   0.50
ARCH(1)    10.60   4.00   0.60
Normality   6.40   2.80   0.20
Hetero     25.80  15.90   1.90
Chow(70%)  28.80  20.70   0.00
Joint      60.10  42.70   3.00


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   5.00   1.20
ARCH(1)    16.10  10.40   4.50
Normality  37.10  26.00  11.40
Hetero      8.70   4.00   1.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      57.50  40.80  17.30

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  5:37.12
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BUc(delta=0.2, gamma=5, GUM_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.28
Potency (%)                   90.76
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       21.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)             19.06
Insignificant (avg no)         2.21
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.14
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.90
ESE final model                0.97
ESE DGP                        0.99
Final equals DGP (% reps)     28.90
Final contains DGP (% reps)   76.50
Gauge (significant only)       1.11
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       36.10
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   98.5   98.1   96.5   97.1   95.5   94.1   92.9   91.9   90.4   89.3   88.2   87.2   86.8   86.0   85.6   85.8   86.0   84.9   85.2   86.0

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   0   0   0   3  11  10  17  11  21  26  10  11  13   5   4   3   3   3 849


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.90   4.50   0.10
ARCH(1)    14.80   7.70   0.30
Normality   9.60   4.20   0.40
Hetero      4.90   2.30   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.30   2.00   0.00
Joint      35.70  18.10   0.80


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.60   4.60   0.00
ARCH(1)    15.00   7.60   0.20
Normality   9.60   4.20   0.40
Hetero      4.70   2.20   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.40   2.20   0.00
Joint      35.60  18.30   0.60


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.80   5.70   0.20
ARCH(1)    14.60   8.20   1.30
Normality   9.80   4.50   0.40
Hetero     12.40   6.90   1.60
Chow(70%)   4.50   2.50   0.00
Joint      41.60  24.50   3.40


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   5.00   1.20
ARCH(1)    16.10  10.40   4.50
Normality  37.10  26.00  11.40
Hetero      8.70   4.00   1.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      57.50  40.80  17.30

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  7:30.19
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** MIUc(delta=0.2, gamma=3, GUM_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=96 #sig=6 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.40
Potency (%)                   66.48
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables        6.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     96.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)              3.99
Insignificant (avg no)         0.18
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.10
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.24
ESE final model                0.98
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)      2.70
Final contains DGP (% reps)   13.20
Gauge (significant only)       1.29
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       18.90
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:101  I:124  I:149  I:174  I:197
Hits  100.0   59.8   63.6   56.8   60.2   58.5

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0  19  57 132 170 193 172  96  73  48  22   9   3   3   0   2   1   0   0   0


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.20   4.30   0.00
ARCH(1)     7.90   4.00   0.00
Normality   3.80   1.20   0.00
Hetero      2.30   1.50   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.90   2.00   0.00
Joint      25.40  12.40   0.00


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.20   4.30   0.00
ARCH(1)     7.90   4.00   0.00
Normality   3.80   1.20   0.00
Hetero      2.30   1.50   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.90   2.00   0.00
Joint      25.40  12.40   0.00


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.40   4.80   0.40
ARCH(1)     7.90   4.00   0.10
Normality   3.40   1.00   0.10
Hetero      9.50   5.00   0.90
Chow(70%)   6.80   2.80   0.10
Joint      30.80  15.60   1.60


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   4.70   1.80
ARCH(1)     7.20   3.70   0.70
Normality  11.90   6.80   2.20
Hetero     11.10   5.70   1.10
Chow(70%)   4.70   2.10   0.50
Joint      36.00  20.10   6.00

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  8:36.89
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** MIUc(delta=0.2, gamma=4, GUM_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=96 #sig=6 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.45
Potency (%)                   90.03
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables        6.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     96.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)              5.40
Insignificant (avg no)         0.16
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.12
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.27
ESE final model                0.96
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)     15.90
Final contains DGP (% reps)   59.10
Gauge (significant only)       1.32
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       33.30
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:101  I:124  I:149  I:174  I:197
Hits  100.0   88.8   89.0   84.3   89.7   88.4

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   1   4  23  51 136 253 237 143  80  36  19   7   7   1   0   1   1   0   0


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.50   4.20   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.00   3.90   0.20
Normality   6.00   3.30   0.80
Hetero      1.30   0.40   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.50   1.00   0.00
Joint      25.20  12.10   1.10


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.50   4.20   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.10   3.90   0.20
Normality   6.00   3.30   0.80
Hetero      1.30   0.40   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.50   1.00   0.00
Joint      25.30  12.10   1.10


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.80   4.60   0.40
ARCH(1)     7.90   3.70   0.10
Normality   5.90   3.30   1.10
Hetero      8.40   3.50   0.60
Chow(70%)   3.40   1.10   0.00
Joint      30.30  15.10   2.20


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   4.70   1.80
ARCH(1)     7.20   3.60   0.70
Normality  11.70   6.90   2.10
Hetero     10.80   5.80   1.20
Chow(70%)   4.70   2.10   0.50
Joint      35.80  20.10   5.90

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 10:01.75
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** MIUc(delta=0.2, gamma=5, GUM_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=96 #sig=6 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.43
Potency (%)                   98.60
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables        6.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     96.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)              5.92
Insignificant (avg no)         0.13
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.13
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.25
ESE final model                0.95
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)     29.30
Final contains DGP (% reps)   92.40
Gauge (significant only)       1.30
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       39.40
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:101  I:124  I:149  I:174  I:197
Hits  100.0   98.3   98.5   97.2   98.5   99.1

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   0   0   2   3  28 320 283 186 102  38  26   5   3   1   1   0   2   0   0


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.00   5.10   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.60   4.30   0.00
Normality   3.70   1.40   0.30
Hetero      1.00   0.40   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.70   0.90   0.00
Joint      23.90  11.60   0.40


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.00   5.20   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.70   4.30   0.00
Normality   3.70   1.40   0.30
Hetero      1.00   0.40   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.70   0.90   0.00
Joint      24.00  11.70   0.40


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.40   5.80   0.40
ARCH(1)     7.70   4.40   0.30
Normality   3.20   1.60   0.40
Hetero      9.10   4.10   0.90
Chow(70%)   2.40   0.90   0.00
Joint      28.80  15.20   1.90


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.30   4.80   1.80
ARCH(1)     7.10   3.60   0.70
Normality  11.60   6.90   2.00
Hetero     10.80   5.60   1.20
Chow(70%)   4.40   2.20   0.40
Joint      35.80  19.80   5.80

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 10:15.39
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** MBUc(delta=0.2, gamma=3, GUM_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      0.68
Potency (%)                   37.78
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       21.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)              7.93
Insignificant (avg no)         2.16
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.24
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.31
ESE final model                1.26
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.00
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.00
Gauge (significant only)       0.39
F+DGP dominates F (%)          1.50
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)        0.10
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:101  I:102  I:103  I:104  I:124  I:125  I:126  I:127  I:149  I:150  I:151  I:152  I:174  I:175  I:176  I:177  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   31.9   37.4   35.1   33.2   33.7   38.5   38.6   37.1   29.6   31.8   35.7   30.0   24.9   40.0   36.9   34.1   32.3   38.5   37.0   37.1

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   4  22  47  62  86 105 118 100  93  91  68  65  38  29  31  17   9   3  12


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      59.60  42.90   0.80
ARCH(1)    17.10  10.20   0.50
Normality  41.40  26.20   1.20
Hetero      3.00   1.50   0.00
Chow(70%)   6.30   2.40   0.00
Joint      78.80  61.10   2.30


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      62.30  44.80   0.80
ARCH(1)    17.70  10.00   0.50
Normality  42.00  27.00   1.00
Hetero      2.90   1.50   0.00
Chow(70%)   6.40   2.70   0.00
Joint      80.50  62.80   2.10


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      73.00  59.00   2.90
ARCH(1)    19.30  10.90   0.70
Normality  41.90  29.00   4.50
Hetero     22.10  13.30   2.90
Chow(70%)  11.90   4.70   0.20
Joint      89.20  77.70  10.30


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.40   4.90   1.50
ARCH(1)    12.50   9.20   3.80
Normality  36.30  26.20  12.60
Hetero     11.00   5.40   1.20
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      55.20  39.40  17.90

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 13:40.85
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** MBUc(delta=0.2, gamma=4, GUM_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      0.92
Potency (%)                   70.46
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       21.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)             14.80
Insignificant (avg no)         1.25
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.38
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.37
ESE final model                1.20
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)      2.70
Final contains DGP (% reps)    6.00
Gauge (significant only)       0.46
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.40
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)        3.00
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:101  I:102  I:103  I:104  I:124  I:125  I:126  I:127  I:149  I:150  I:151  I:152  I:174  I:175  I:176  I:177  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   67.5   70.4   71.1   71.0   69.5   71.8   71.6   71.3   65.5   65.7   68.1   66.8   58.7   70.4   71.4   69.9   65.9   72.4   71.6   69.1

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   3   0   1   2   7  14  18  30  42  28  45  54  78  72  80  70  75  82 299


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      27.10  19.10   0.80
ARCH(1)    11.20   5.80   0.40
Normality  54.90  41.00   9.90
Hetero      5.80   3.60   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.90   2.40   0.00
Joint      67.10  51.50  10.60


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      27.90  19.60   0.90
ARCH(1)    11.30   6.10   0.40
Normality  55.40  41.40   9.80
Hetero      5.70   3.50   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.10   2.50   0.00
Joint      67.50  52.10  10.60


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      30.60  23.10   1.80
ARCH(1)    13.30   6.10   0.40
Normality  55.40  42.40  12.80
Hetero     20.30  11.90   3.10
Chow(70%)   6.60   3.30   0.10
Joint      72.20  57.90  16.70


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   4.90   1.50
ARCH(1)    12.50   9.40   3.80
Normality  36.30  26.50  12.90
Hetero     10.90   5.10   1.20
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      55.20  40.00  18.20

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 14:12.66
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** MBUc(delta=0.2, gamma=5, GUM_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.04
Potency (%)                   93.61
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       21.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.00
GUM: no of variables         103.00
Relevant (avg no)             19.66
Insignificant (avg no)         0.32
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.22
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.62
ESE final model                1.04
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)     25.30
Final contains DGP (% reps)   57.60
Gauge (significant only)       0.77
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       16.20
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1  I:101  I:102  I:103  I:104  I:124  I:125  I:126  I:127  I:149  I:150  I:151  I:152  I:174  I:175  I:176  I:177  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   92.4   92.5   94.4   93.7   91.6   93.6   94.3   92.9   92.9   92.5   93.0   93.2   90.4   93.6   95.3   93.5   92.9   95.1   93.2   94.9

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   1   1   0   1   0   0   0   4   2   1   2   7   5   9  17  32  39  44 835


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.70   6.00   0.30
ARCH(1)     9.30   5.20   0.40
Normality  34.40  26.80  13.50
Hetero      2.40   1.60   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.90   0.50   0.00
Joint      47.60  34.70  13.50


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.80   6.10   0.30
ARCH(1)     9.30   5.10   0.40
Normality  34.40  26.90  13.50
Hetero      2.60   1.70   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.90   0.50   0.00
Joint      47.60  34.80  13.50


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      12.50   7.30   0.80
ARCH(1)    10.70   6.30   0.80
Normality  34.40  26.90  13.00
Hetero     12.30   6.40   0.70
Chow(70%)   1.40   0.70   0.00
Joint      54.10  39.60  14.40


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   4.90   1.50
ARCH(1)    12.70   9.40   3.80
Normality  36.50  26.70  12.90
Hetero     10.80   5.30   1.10
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      55.20  40.30  18.10

