
Ox Professional version 7.04 (Windows/U/MT) (C) J.A. Doornik, 1994-2014
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 32:25.52
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=10, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=2.4, rho=0, sat=IIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=90 #sig=31 cp=122 cp_orig=122

Gauge (%)                      2.0678
Potency (%)                   58.8290
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       31.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     90.0000
GUM: no of variables         122.0000
Relevant (avg no)             18.2370
Insignificant (avg no)         0.7850
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.4050
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.4560
ESE final model                1.0557
ESE DGP                        0.9943
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.6178
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       16.7000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      1.0000
Both dominated at 5%           0.4000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101
Hits   86.4   27.7   33.5   26.0   34.2   29.0   33.7   24.2   33.8   27.1   32.6  100.0   96.7   81.0   71.0   70.3   67.4   68.2   67.9   68.6   67.5   67.4   67.9   68.1   67.7   67.4   68.0   67.7   67.1   67.6   68.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    2    1   12    4   14   23   36   46   51   52   27   19   20    9    7    5  672


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   5.30   0.50
ARCH(1)    20.30  13.10   5.10
Normality  39.00  27.20  12.00
Hetero      1.50   0.50   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      59.20  41.40  17.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      27.00  16.60   0.00
ARCH(1)    16.50   8.60   0.10
Normality   9.00   4.40   0.00
Hetero      2.00   1.00   0.10
Chow(70%)  23.30  18.10   0.00
Joint      56.70  39.60   0.20

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      22.30  12.20   0.00
ARCH(1)    16.20   8.90   0.40
Normality   9.90   4.50   0.00
Hetero      1.40   0.60   0.10
Chow(70%)  15.50   8.50   0.00
Joint      49.20  29.70   0.50

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 30:46.09
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=10, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=3.2, rho=0, sat=IIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=90 #sig=31 cp=122 cp_orig=122

Gauge (%)                      2.1222
Potency (%)                   61.0452
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       31.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     90.0000
GUM: no of variables         122.0000
Relevant (avg no)             18.9240
Insignificant (avg no)         0.7030
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.3190
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.5910
ESE final model                1.0689
ESE DGP                        0.9943
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.1000
Gauge (significant only)       1.7678
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       20.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      4.1000
Both dominated at 5%           1.1000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101
Hits   83.7   42.2   52.1   44.6   50.8   47.8   53.2   42.2   53.5   45.4   52.1   99.9   96.2   74.2   65.2   63.5   61.4   61.5   61.7   62.2   62.2   61.8   61.6   62.1   61.8   60.7   61.9   61.9   61.7   62.0   61.3

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    1    0    3    3   22   30   43   64   64   44   45   20   20   14   11  616


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   5.70   0.40
ARCH(1)    20.60  12.90   5.20
Normality  39.10  27.30  12.30
Hetero      1.50   0.50   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      59.60  41.70  17.50

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      25.30  15.30   0.00
ARCH(1)    15.30   8.70   0.10
Normality   9.70   4.10   0.00
Hetero      2.30   0.90   0.10
Chow(70%)  25.80  18.80   0.00
Joint      58.50  39.60   0.20

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      22.40  12.30   0.20
ARCH(1)    15.10   8.20   0.60
Normality   9.30   4.00   0.20
Hetero      1.70   0.70   0.20
Chow(70%)  19.10  10.90   0.00
Joint      52.50  31.50   1.20

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 23:52.34
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=10, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=4, rho=0, sat=IIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=90 #sig=31 cp=122 cp_orig=122

Gauge (%)                      1.8511
Potency (%)                   66.2839
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       31.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     90.0000
GUM: no of variables         122.0000
Relevant (avg no)             20.5480
Insignificant (avg no)         0.5120
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2520
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.4140
ESE final model                1.0656
ESE DGP                        0.9943
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.4000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    1.7000
Gauge (significant only)       1.5711
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       15.5000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     10.4000
Both dominated at 5%           2.9000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101
Hits   83.1   62.7   66.7   62.7   64.5   63.6   65.1   59.0   68.6   62.7   65.1  100.0   94.9   72.9   65.2   62.9   62.9   62.5   62.1   62.8   62.3   62.1   62.1   62.6   62.5   61.9   62.5   62.8   61.9   62.2   61.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    2   10   20   21   58   56   71   50   35   24   17   12  623


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.30   6.00   0.40
ARCH(1)    21.20  13.20   5.00
Normality  38.90  27.20  12.40
Hetero      1.40   0.70   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      59.60  42.40  17.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      25.00  13.70   0.00
ARCH(1)    16.60   8.90   0.10
Normality   9.50   3.50   0.00
Hetero      1.90   0.90   0.00
Chow(70%)  23.80  16.10   0.30
Joint      59.10  38.30   0.40

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      22.80  11.70   0.10
ARCH(1)    14.60   8.10   0.20
Normality   9.00   3.70   0.00
Hetero      1.80   0.80   0.00
Chow(70%)  19.40  11.20   0.40
Joint      53.60  31.50   0.70

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 23:22.41
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=2.4, rho=0, sat=IIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=91 #sig=31 cp=123 cp_orig=123

Gauge (%)                      1.5747
Potency (%)                   36.2355
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       31.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     91.0000
GUM: no of variables         123.0000
Relevant (avg no)             11.2330
Insignificant (avg no)         0.8270
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2260
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.2070
ESE final model                1.1548
ESE DGP                        0.9885
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.3264
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       28.4000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      0.3000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   24.6   25.2   23.8   25.1   24.7   23.8   23.3   23.3   24.7   26.3   81.8   78.5   71.2   67.1   58.1   51.3   43.5   37.1   32.4   26.8   25.0   22.3   22.0   20.8   19.6   21.5   22.0   23.5   25.0   29.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    1    5   25   39   77   79   93   92   89   78   62   55   31   40   14   16   10  194


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.10   4.90   0.80
ARCH(1)    19.50  11.70   4.60
Normality  37.80  25.50  12.40
Hetero      1.20   0.40   0.10
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      58.90  39.20  17.60

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      22.40  13.70   0.00
ARCH(1)     9.20   4.50   0.10
Normality   5.10   2.80   0.00
Hetero      8.00   3.50   0.00
Chow(70%)  44.20  29.60   0.00
Joint      60.60  41.40   0.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      17.90   9.40   0.20
ARCH(1)     8.30   3.90   0.10
Normality   4.80   2.60   0.00
Hetero      6.20   2.80   0.10
Chow(70%)  31.80  20.40   0.00
Joint      47.90  31.00   0.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 20:11.43
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=3.2, rho=0, sat=IIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=91 #sig=31 cp=123 cp_orig=123

Gauge (%)                      1.5802
Potency (%)                   39.0613
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       31.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     91.0000
GUM: no of variables         123.0000
Relevant (avg no)             12.1090
Insignificant (avg no)         0.8210
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2110
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.2270
ESE final model                1.1846
ESE DGP                        0.9885
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.3484
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       29.8000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      1.6000
Both dominated at 5%           0.7000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   40.7   42.2   38.3   40.6   41.6   41.7   36.7   40.4   40.3   42.4   76.8   70.7   63.6   62.5   53.2   44.1   38.5   35.1   28.2   23.8   22.0   19.4   20.2   18.5   17.8   19.0   20.4   21.4   23.9   26.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    1    0    6    8   26   39   68   68   98   99   93   86   64   50   43   29   25   13  184


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.10   4.90   0.80
ARCH(1)    19.50  11.70   4.60
Normality  37.80  25.50  12.40
Hetero      1.20   0.40   0.10
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      58.90  39.20  17.60

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      23.50  14.00   0.10
ARCH(1)    10.50   5.30   0.00
Normality   5.40   2.50   0.00
Hetero      6.80   3.50   0.00
Chow(70%)  42.20  28.60   0.20
Joint      61.00  41.70   0.30

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      19.40  10.20   0.30
ARCH(1)    10.20   4.90   0.00
Normality   6.00   2.40   0.10
Hetero      5.30   2.10   0.10
Chow(70%)  34.40  19.90   0.30
Joint      54.90  31.90   0.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 16:43.98
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=4, rho=0, sat=IIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=91 #sig=31 cp=123 cp_orig=123

Gauge (%)                      1.5352
Potency (%)                   43.8839
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       31.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     91.0000
GUM: no of variables         123.0000
Relevant (avg no)             13.6040
Insignificant (avg no)         0.7160
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1970
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.2000
ESE final model                1.1886
ESE DGP                        0.9885
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.8000
Gauge (significant only)       1.3187
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       24.4000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      3.1000
Both dominated at 5%           0.7000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   55.7   60.1   55.7   57.4   56.5   61.0   54.5   57.5   55.0   58.4   74.7   69.4   61.6   58.2   49.3   43.0   37.1   34.1   28.0   24.1   22.4   19.4   19.9   18.4   18.5   18.3   20.0   22.0   23.2   27.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    3    5   13   27   40   53   72   72   85   80   93   73   55   43   34   29  223


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.10   4.90   0.80
ARCH(1)    19.50  11.70   4.60
Normality  37.80  25.50  12.40
Hetero      1.20   0.40   0.10
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      58.90  39.20  17.60

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      25.80  16.40   0.10
ARCH(1)     9.00   4.40   0.00
Normality   4.90   2.30   0.00
Hetero      8.00   4.30   0.10
Chow(70%)  41.50  28.40   0.10
Joint      60.50  44.00   0.30

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      21.60  11.70   0.10
ARCH(1)     7.80   3.70   0.00
Normality   4.80   2.00   0.10
Hetero      6.30   3.60   0.50
Chow(70%)  36.10  19.10   0.30
Joint      54.30  32.90   1.00

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
