
Ox Professional version 7.04 (Windows/U/MT) (C) J.A. Doornik, 1994-2014
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:     pvalue=0.001
replications, M=         1000  time                    10.77

*** HP7 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.001 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      0.1297
Potency (%)                   99.8667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.9960
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0480
ESE final model                6.4111
ESE DGP                        6.4247
Final equals DGP (% reps)     95.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   99.8000
Gauge (significant only)       0.1297
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     10.2000
Both dominated at 5%           0.1000


        y_1    x11  x11_1
Hits   99.8  100.0   99.8

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    1    1  951   47    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.50   4.00   0.60
ARCH(4)     7.80   3.90   0.80
Normality   9.30   4.20   0.90
Hetero      8.60   5.00   1.30
Chow(70%)  10.50   4.90   1.20
Joint      36.10  19.90   4.50

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.80   4.30   0.70
ARCH(4)     7.20   3.20   0.70
Normality   8.70   3.70   0.90
Hetero      8.60   4.90   1.10
Chow(70%)  10.30   4.70   1.00
Joint      35.20  18.80   4.20

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.10   6.00   1.60
ARCH(4)     8.50   4.50   1.40
Normality  12.50   8.40   2.90
Hetero      3.90   2.10   0.50
Chow(70%)  12.60   7.30   1.90
Joint      40.60  25.20   7.70

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                    10.85

*** HP7 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.01 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      0.8973
Potency (%)                  100.0000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.0000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.3320
ESE final model                6.3622
ESE DGP                        6.4247
Final equals DGP (% reps)     71.6000
Final contains DGP (% reps)  100.0000
Gauge (significant only)       0.8973
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     31.8000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1    x11  x11_1
Hits  100.0  100.0  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0  716  241   39    3    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.50   4.00   0.60
ARCH(4)     7.80   3.90   0.80
Normality   9.30   4.20   0.90
Hetero      8.60   5.00   1.30
Chow(70%)  10.50   4.90   1.20
Joint      36.10  19.90   4.50

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       7.80   3.60   0.50
ARCH(4)     7.00   3.10   0.60
Normality   8.70   4.00   1.00
Hetero      7.90   4.50   1.50
Chow(70%)   9.40   4.00   0.80
Joint      33.40  17.50   4.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.10   6.00   1.60
ARCH(4)     8.50   4.50   1.40
Normality  12.50   8.40   2.90
Hetero      3.90   2.10   0.50
Chow(70%)  12.60   7.30   1.90
Joint      40.60  25.20   7.70

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.05
replications, M=         1000  time                    11.46

*** HP7 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.05 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      3.7946
Potency (%)                   99.9667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.9990
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.4040
ESE final model                6.2568
ESE DGP                        6.4247
Final equals DGP (% reps)     26.8000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   99.9000
Gauge (significant only)       3.7946
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     62.1000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1    x11  x11_1
Hits  100.0  100.0   99.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0  268  330  222  118   43   12    6    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.50   4.00   0.60
ARCH(4)     7.80   3.90   0.80
Normality   9.30   4.20   0.90
Hetero      8.60   5.00   1.30
Chow(70%)  10.50   4.90   1.20
Joint      36.10  19.90   4.50

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       7.10   3.40   0.30
ARCH(4)     7.20   4.20   0.90
Normality   8.30   4.80   0.80
Hetero      6.20   4.10   0.90
Chow(70%)   7.10   3.10   0.50
Joint      30.80  17.80   3.30

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.10   6.00   1.60
ARCH(4)     8.50   4.50   1.40
Normality  12.50   8.40   2.90
Hetero      3.90   2.10   0.50
Chow(70%)  12.60   7.30   1.90
Joint      40.60  25.20   7.70

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:       pvalue=0.1
replications, M=         1000  time                    12.33

*** HP7 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.1 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      7.6919
Potency (%)                   99.9333
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.9980
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    2.8460
ESE final model                6.1663
ESE DGP                        6.4247
Final equals DGP (% reps)      8.7000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   99.8000
Gauge (significant only)       7.6919
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     78.9000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1    x11  x11_1
Hits  100.0  100.0   99.8

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0   87  175  207  205  144   92   49   25   12    3    0    0    1    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.50   4.00   0.60
ARCH(4)     7.80   3.90   0.80
Normality   9.30   4.20   0.90
Hetero      8.60   5.00   1.30
Chow(70%)  10.50   4.90   1.20
Joint      36.10  19.90   4.50

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       6.60   3.20   0.20
ARCH(4)     6.90   3.60   0.90
Normality   8.80   4.60   0.70
Hetero      6.60   4.20   0.80
Chow(70%)   5.70   2.30   0.40
Joint      30.40  16.80   3.00

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.10   6.00   1.60
ARCH(4)     8.50   4.50   1.40
Normality  12.50   8.40   2.90
Hetero      3.90   2.10   0.50
Chow(70%)  12.60   7.30   1.90
Joint      40.60  25.20   7.70

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:     pvalue=0.001
replications, M=         1000  time                    10.17

*** HP8 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.001 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      1.8838
Potency (%)                   40.5333
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.2160
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.6970
ESE final model                0.0976
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)     10.5000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   10.8000
Gauge (significant only)       1.8838
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       89.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     26.5000
Both dominated at 5%          25.2000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits   10.8  100.0   10.8

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0  378  367  220   34    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.40   4.40   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.50   6.10   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.80  21.30   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      90.20  89.40  89.20
ARCH(4)    86.20  84.00  77.90
Normality  16.80  10.20   3.60
Hetero     23.60  16.20   7.40
Chow(70%)  18.40  13.50   6.50
Joint      92.80  91.30  89.70

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      13.10   6.60   1.30
ARCH(4)     9.00   4.90   2.00
Normality  13.30   7.10   2.70
Hetero      4.20   2.00   0.50
Chow(70%)  12.40   6.70   2.30
Joint      41.50  24.70   8.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.01
replications, M=         1000  time                    10.70

*** HP8 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.01 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      3.1486
Potency (%)                   53.3333
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.6000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.1650
ESE final model                0.0900
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)     22.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   30.0000
Gauge (significant only)       3.1486
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       70.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     37.2000
Both dominated at 5%          27.4000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits   30.0  100.0   30.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0  126  250  420  153   41    8    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.40   4.40   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.50   6.10   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.80  21.30   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      72.40  70.90  70.00
ARCH(4)    66.60  63.40  56.60
Normality  14.90   8.50   3.10
Hetero     23.40  16.80   6.70
Chow(70%)  14.10   8.80   4.20
Joint      80.70  75.60  71.20

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      13.10   6.60   1.30
ARCH(4)     9.00   4.90   2.00
Normality  13.30   7.10   2.70
Hetero      4.20   2.00   0.50
Chow(70%)  12.40   6.70   2.30
Joint      41.50  24.70   8.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:      pvalue=0.05
replications, M=         1000  time                    11.73

*** HP8 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.05 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      6.0865
Potency (%)                   69.2667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.0780
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    2.2520
ESE final model                0.0813
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)     13.5000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   53.9000
Gauge (significant only)       6.0865
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       46.1000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     59.3000
Both dominated at 5%          25.5000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits   53.9  100.0   53.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   21   70  223  284  189  115   64   27    6    0    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.40   4.40   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.50   6.10   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.80  21.30   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      50.60  47.40  46.20
ARCH(4)    43.40  39.20  32.90
Normality  12.80   7.00   2.10
Hetero     20.40  14.30   5.50
Chow(70%)   9.30   5.90   2.10
Joint      65.90  56.30  48.20

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      13.10   6.60   1.30
ARCH(4)     9.00   4.90   2.00
Normality  13.30   7.10   2.70
Hetero      4.20   2.00   0.50
Chow(70%)  12.40   6.70   2.30
Joint      41.50  24.70   8.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:     Stepwise  termination:       pvalue=0.1
replications, M=         1000  time                    12.73

*** HP8 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.1 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      9.4216
Potency (%)                   79.2667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.3780
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0000
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0000
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    3.4860
ESE final model                0.0764
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)      5.6000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   68.9000
Gauge (significant only)       9.4216
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       31.1000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     72.5000
Both dominated at 5%          18.9000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits   68.9  100.0   68.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    4   14   92  166  188  197  140   88   64   24   11    9    1    2    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.40   4.40   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.50   6.10   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.80  21.30   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      37.10  33.40  31.20
ARCH(4)    30.60  27.30  19.50
Normality  10.50   4.50   1.10
Hetero     15.80  10.50   4.10
Chow(70%)   6.80   4.40   1.40
Joint      55.90  43.80  33.80

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      13.10   6.60   1.30
ARCH(4)     9.00   4.90   2.00
Normality  13.30   7.10   2.70
Hetero      4.20   2.00   0.50
Chow(70%)  12.40   6.70   2.30
Joint      41.50  24.70   8.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  5:06.19
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Tiny:0.001
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value     0.0158114  presearch p-value   0.0199054
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value         0.001  squeeze p-value        0.0002
chopping p-value    0.0158114  bunching p-value    0.0158114
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** HP7 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.001 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      0.8973
Potency (%)                   97.1333
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.9140
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1430
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1420
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1900
ESE final model                6.4368
ESE DGP                        6.4247
Final equals DGP (% reps)     85.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   91.4000
Gauge (significant only)       0.5135
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        8.6000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     13.8000
Both dominated at 5%           4.4000


        y_1    x11  x11_1
Hits  100.0  100.0   91.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    3  861   66   42   21    2    3    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.50   4.00   0.60
ARCH(4)     7.80   3.90   0.80
Normality   9.30   4.20   0.90
Hetero      8.60   5.00   1.30
Chow(70%)  10.50   4.90   1.20
Joint      36.10  19.90   4.50

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      15.40  10.40   0.00
ARCH(4)     7.00   2.60   0.10
Normality   8.80   3.80   0.10
Hetero      9.10   4.70   0.00
Chow(70%)  10.40   4.30   0.30
Joint      39.70  23.10   0.50

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      14.40   7.20   0.60
ARCH(4)     8.50   5.00   0.70
Normality  12.90   7.00   2.60
Hetero      3.80   2.20   0.20
Chow(70%)  12.20   7.00   1.80
Joint      41.80  25.30   5.50

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  5:01.57
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** HP7 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.01 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      1.6054
Potency (%)                   99.0333
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.9710
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0480
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0480
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.5460
ESE final model                6.3531
ESE DGP                        6.4247
Final equals DGP (% reps)     68.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   97.1000
Gauge (significant only)       1.4757
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        2.7000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     33.5000
Both dominated at 5%           2.0000


        y_1    x11  x11_1
Hits  100.0  100.0   97.1

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0  683  168   86   39   16    6    1    0    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.50   4.00   0.60
ARCH(4)     7.80   3.90   0.80
Normality   9.30   4.20   0.90
Hetero      8.60   5.00   1.30
Chow(70%)  10.50   4.90   1.20
Joint      36.10  19.90   4.50

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       9.30   4.50   0.00
ARCH(4)     7.00   2.50   0.20
Normality   8.00   3.70   0.20
Hetero      7.80   4.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   8.40   4.10   0.20
Joint      33.80  17.30   0.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      10.10   4.60   0.30
ARCH(4)     7.30   4.90   1.10
Normality  13.30   7.30   2.60
Hetero      3.60   2.20   0.30
Chow(70%)  11.80   6.80   1.70
Joint      38.20  23.30   5.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  4:41.67
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size     Standard:0.05
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value      0.111803  presearch p-value    0.333654
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.05  squeeze p-value          0.01
chopping p-value     0.111803  bunching p-value     0.111803
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** HP7 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.05 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      5.9514
Potency (%)                   99.7000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.9910
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0310
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0310
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    2.1710
ESE final model                6.2081
ESE DGP                        6.4247
Final equals DGP (% reps)     17.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   99.1000
Gauge (significant only)       5.8676
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.7000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     72.0000
Both dominated at 5%           0.6000


        y_1    x11  x11_1
Hits  100.0  100.0   99.1

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0  171  225  238  150  107   66   26   11    4    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.50   4.00   0.60
ARCH(4)     7.80   3.90   0.80
Normality   9.30   4.20   0.90
Hetero      8.60   5.00   1.30
Chow(70%)  10.50   4.90   1.20
Joint      36.10  19.90   4.50

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.20   3.90   0.00
ARCH(4)     7.30   3.30   0.30
Normality   8.20   4.20   0.30
Hetero      7.40   4.40   0.00
Chow(70%)   6.50   2.90   0.10
Joint      31.30  17.10   0.70

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       9.60   4.50   0.70
ARCH(4)     7.90   4.60   1.30
Normality  13.20   8.00   2.70
Hetero      3.40   2.50   0.40
Chow(70%)  12.40   6.00   1.60
Joint      38.60  22.90   6.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  4:13.16
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size          Huge:0.1
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value      0.177828  presearch p-value    0.484986
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value           0.1  squeeze p-value     0.0217391
chopping p-value     0.177828  bunching p-value     0.177828
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** HP7 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.1 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      9.5973
Potency (%)                   99.8333
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.9950
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0120
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0120
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    3.5390
ESE final model                6.1385
ESE DGP                        6.4247
Final equals DGP (% reps)      3.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   99.5000
Gauge (significant only)       9.5649
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     81.6000
Both dominated at 5%           0.2000


        y_1    x11  x11_1
Hits  100.0  100.0   99.5

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0   31  111  201  219  162  100   90   39   28    9    3    6    0    0    1    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.50   4.00   0.60
ARCH(4)     7.80   3.90   0.80
Normality   9.30   4.20   0.90
Hetero      8.60   5.00   1.30
Chow(70%)  10.50   4.90   1.20
Joint      36.10  19.90   4.50

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       6.70   2.90   0.00
ARCH(4)     7.50   3.50   0.10
Normality   8.20   3.90   0.30
Hetero      6.00   3.20   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.70   2.30   0.00
Joint      29.20  14.70   0.40

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       9.60   4.90   1.00
ARCH(4)     8.30   4.50   1.40
Normality  12.80   7.90   2.80
Hetero      3.40   2.60   0.50
Chow(70%)  12.10   6.40   1.60
Joint      38.50  23.60   6.90

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  4:38.78
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Tiny:0.001
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value     0.0158114  presearch p-value   0.0199054
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value         0.001  squeeze p-value        0.0002
chopping p-value    0.0158114  bunching p-value    0.0158114
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** HP8 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.001 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      0.2568
Potency (%)                  100.0000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.0000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0580
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0580
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0370
ESE final model                0.0727
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)     92.9000
Final contains DGP (% reps)  100.0000
Gauge (significant only)       0.1000
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     11.2000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0  100.0  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0  929   50   18    3    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.40   4.40   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.50   6.10   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.80  21.30   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.70   3.90   0.00
ARCH(4)     7.30   3.90   0.10
Normality   9.40   4.50   0.20
Hetero     10.20   5.60   0.00
Chow(70%)   9.80   4.80   0.20
Joint      38.40  20.70   0.50

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.50   6.20   0.70
ARCH(4)     8.30   4.90   0.90
Normality  12.70   7.50   2.10
Hetero      4.00   2.40   0.40
Chow(70%)  12.20   6.90   2.00
Joint      40.40  25.10   5.60

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  4:44.38
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** HP8 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.01 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      1.5676
Potency (%)                  100.0000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.0000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0440
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0440
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.5360
ESE final model                0.0720
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)     68.5000
Final contains DGP (% reps)  100.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.4486
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     34.3000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0  100.0  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0  685  170   80   31   21    8    2    3    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.40   4.40   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.50   6.10   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.80  21.30   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.70   3.80   0.10
ARCH(4)     7.20   3.30   0.20
Normality  10.20   4.60   0.30
Hetero     10.00   5.50   0.00
Chow(70%)   8.80   4.00   0.10
Joint      37.80  19.30   0.70

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      12.50   6.20   0.80
ARCH(4)     8.70   5.20   1.10
Normality  12.60   7.50   2.50
Hetero      4.20   2.00   0.40
Chow(70%)  12.70   6.80   2.00
Joint      40.70  25.20   6.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  4:25.16
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size     Standard:0.05
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value      0.111803  presearch p-value    0.333654
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.05  squeeze p-value          0.01
chopping p-value     0.111803  bunching p-value     0.111803
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** HP8 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.05 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      5.8622
Potency (%)                  100.0000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.0000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0260
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0260
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    2.1430
ESE final model                0.0705
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)     17.9000
Final contains DGP (% reps)  100.0000
Gauge (significant only)       5.7919
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     71.2000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0  100.0  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0  179  234  219  169  101   49   23   15    6    2    1    2    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.40   4.40   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.50   6.10   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.80  21.30   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.20   3.60   0.10
ARCH(4)     7.10   3.00   0.10
Normality  10.10   4.20   0.30
Hetero      9.90   4.20   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.70   3.10   0.00
Joint      35.20  17.10   0.50

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      13.30   6.00   1.10
ARCH(4)     8.80   5.30   1.60
Normality  12.70   7.50   2.40
Hetero      3.80   1.70   0.50
Chow(70%)  12.60   6.90   2.00
Joint      41.00  25.10   7.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  4:01.14
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size          Huge:0.1
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value      0.177828  presearch p-value    0.484986
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value           0.1  squeeze p-value     0.0217391
chopping p-value     0.177828  bunching p-value     0.177828
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** HP8 constant=U M=1000 T=139 pvalue=0.1 #insig=37 #sig=3 cp=41 cp_orig=41

Gauge (%)                      9.5459
Potency (%)                  100.0000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        3.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     37.0000
GUM: no of variables          41.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.0000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0150
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0150
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    3.5170
ESE final model                0.0697
ESE DGP                        0.0729
Final equals DGP (% reps)      3.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)  100.0000
Gauge (significant only)       9.5054
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     80.4000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1     x3   x3_1
Hits  100.0  100.0  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0   31  158  171  200  160  105   78   43   19   18    9    5    2    0    0    1    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.40   4.40   0.50
ARCH(4)     8.20   3.70   1.00
Normality   9.50   4.50   0.90
Hetero     10.50   6.10   1.70
Chow(70%)   9.60   4.80   1.00
Joint      37.80  21.30   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)       8.60   3.80   0.10
ARCH(4)     6.20   2.50   0.00
Normality  10.60   4.60   0.50
Hetero      9.00   4.50   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.80   2.60   0.00
Joint      34.90  17.10   0.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(5)      13.20   5.90   1.20
ARCH(4)     8.70   4.80   1.70
Normality  13.00   7.60   2.50
Hetero      4.00   1.90   0.50
Chow(70%)  12.50   6.40   2.10
Joint      41.00  24.40   7.50

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
