
Ox Professional version 7.01 (Windows_64/U/MT) (C) J.A. Doornik, 1994-2013
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  9-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time               1:15:51.91
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=10, GUM_CONSTANT_U t=2.4, rho=0, sat=IIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=90 #sig=31 cp=122 cp_orig=122

Gauge (%)                      2.87
Potency (%)                   57.73
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       31.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     90.00
GUM: no of variables         122.00
Relevant (avg no)             17.90
Insignificant (avg no)         0.80
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.40
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    2.19
ESE final model                1.03
ESE DGP                        0.99
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.00
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.00
Gauge (significant only)       2.43
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.20
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)        2.70
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101
Hits   87.5   27.7   35.8   27.0   34.7   31.2   36.1   26.0   33.4   27.4   36.3  100.0   97.2   79.3   69.1   66.9   65.3   64.7   65.3   65.2   65.9   65.3   65.0   65.1   64.7   64.7   64.5   65.2   64.1   64.0   65.1

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   0   0   1   2   6   6  10  18  21  33  60  55  30  38  19  27  13  12 649


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      22.00  12.30   0.10
ARCH(1)    14.70   7.40   0.30
Normality   6.00   1.70   0.00
Hetero      6.70   2.70   0.10
Chow(70%)  15.20   8.60   0.00
Joint      49.20  27.60   0.50


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      23.10  12.90   0.00
ARCH(1)    14.80   7.30   0.30
Normality   5.80   1.50   0.00
Hetero      6.80   2.90   0.10
Chow(70%)  17.00   9.20   0.00
Joint      50.60  28.40   0.40


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      26.20  16.20   0.00
ARCH(1)    14.10   7.50   0.10
Normality   5.50   1.40   0.00
Hetero      6.40   3.10   0.00
Chow(70%)  22.40  17.20   0.00
Joint      54.60  36.70   0.10


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   5.30   0.50
ARCH(1)    20.30  13.10   5.10
Normality  39.00  27.20  12.00
Hetero     11.70   6.50   1.40
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      62.90  44.50  18.10

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  6-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time               1:21:11.12
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=10, GUM_CONSTANT_U t=3.2, rho=0, sat=IIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=90 #sig=31 cp=122 cp_orig=122

Gauge (%)                      2.92
Potency (%)                   59.02
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       31.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     90.00
GUM: no of variables         122.00
Relevant (avg no)             18.30
Insignificant (avg no)         0.67
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.34
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    2.28
ESE final model                1.04
ESE DGP                        0.99
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.00
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.00
Gauge (significant only)       2.54
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)        6.60
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101
Hits   84.9   46.6   54.5   44.5   53.7   46.7   55.1   41.1   56.8   46.8   55.4   99.9   95.9   72.3   60.5   58.2   57.6   57.1   57.2   56.9   58.1   56.9   57.0   57.3   56.9   56.3   57.0   57.2   57.1   56.7   57.3

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   1   0   0   0   2   1   2  18  19  35  58  67  47  54  26  27  35  16 592


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      21.10  12.00   0.20
ARCH(1)    15.00   8.50   1.00
Normality   7.00   2.90   0.20
Hetero      7.90   3.50   0.10
Chow(70%)  21.10  12.90   0.30
Joint      53.20  32.70   1.50


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      21.40  12.20   0.10
ARCH(1)    14.10   7.90   0.90
Normality   6.80   2.60   0.00
Hetero      7.80   3.60   0.10
Chow(70%)  21.80  13.60   0.10
Joint      52.80  32.80   1.00


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      23.50  14.50   0.00
ARCH(1)    15.20   8.90   0.20
Normality   6.30   2.00   0.00
Hetero      8.50   4.20   0.10
Chow(70%)  25.50  18.40   0.10
Joint      56.50  37.80   0.20


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   5.70   0.40
ARCH(1)    20.60  12.90   5.20
Normality  39.10  27.30  12.30
Hetero     11.70   6.70   1.40
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      63.30  45.00  18.40

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time               1:28:45.38
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=10, GUM_CONSTANT_U t=4, rho=0, sat=IIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=90 #sig=31 cp=122 cp_orig=122

Gauge (%)                      2.50
Potency (%)                   61.35
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       31.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     90.00
GUM: no of variables         122.00
Relevant (avg no)             19.02
Insignificant (avg no)         0.53
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.30
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.95
ESE final model                1.05
ESE DGP                        0.99
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.20
Final contains DGP (% reps)    1.10
Gauge (significant only)       2.17
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.20
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       10.70
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101
Hits   85.9   62.7   71.6   63.3   69.1   63.0   69.6   60.7   72.9   62.7   71.1  100.0   94.5   67.6   55.5   53.3   51.9   51.5   52.2   52.2   52.0   51.7   52.3   52.1   52.5   51.8   51.3   52.2   51.7   51.7   51.3

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   3   6  15  20  51  58  88  61  50  35  30  32 550


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      24.00  12.50   0.20
ARCH(1)    15.50   8.30   0.60
Normality   5.90   2.30   0.10
Hetero      7.50   3.60   0.10
Chow(70%)  24.00  12.80   0.20
Joint      56.90  33.80   1.20


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      24.30  13.00   0.10
ARCH(1)    15.60   8.10   0.50
Normality   5.80   2.30   0.10
Hetero      8.20   3.60   0.00
Chow(70%)  25.50  13.70   0.10
Joint      58.40  34.90   0.80


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      25.80  14.90   0.10
ARCH(1)    16.30   8.50   0.10
Normality   5.60   2.20   0.10
Hetero      8.40   4.20   0.00
Chow(70%)  28.20  17.60   0.00
Joint      61.50  40.10   0.30


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.30   6.00   0.40
ARCH(1)    21.20  13.20   5.00
Normality  38.90  27.20  12.40
Hetero     11.70   6.60   1.50
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      63.00  45.50  18.40

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time               1:32:09.27
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=5, GUM_CONSTANT_U t=2.4, rho=0, sat=IIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=91 #sig=31 cp=123 cp_orig=123

Gauge (%)                      2.24
Potency (%)                   35.31
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       31.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     91.00
GUM: no of variables         123.00
Relevant (avg no)             10.95
Insignificant (avg no)         0.88
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.26
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.78
ESE final model                1.13
ESE DGP                        0.99
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.00
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.00
Gauge (significant only)       1.96
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)        0.80
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   25.7   26.1   24.8   26.0   25.1   25.6   23.7   26.4   24.8   27.4   83.1   77.1   69.0   66.2   58.4   48.4   40.7   35.7   28.8   23.1   22.4   19.7   18.9   17.1   17.1   18.3   20.4   21.5   24.7   28.5

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   0   1   7  14  30  49  67  86 102  85  86  76  66  47  43  29  22  22 168


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      16.90   8.30   0.10
ARCH(1)    10.60   5.10   0.10
Normality   2.10   0.90   0.00
Hetero     17.00   8.50   0.10
Chow(70%)  34.10  20.70   0.00
Joint      54.10  34.10   0.30


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      17.60   8.80   0.00
ARCH(1)    10.80   5.20   0.10
Normality   2.30   0.90   0.00
Hetero     17.50   8.70   0.10
Chow(70%)  35.60  21.60   0.00
Joint      55.90  35.30   0.20


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      21.60  12.00   0.00
ARCH(1)    11.00   5.50   0.10
Normality   2.60   1.10   0.00
Hetero     21.00  12.30   0.10
Chow(70%)  42.60  30.90   0.00
Joint      62.90  46.30   0.20


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.10   4.90   0.80
ARCH(1)    19.50  11.70   4.60
Normality  37.80  25.50  12.40
Hetero     10.00   6.70   1.50
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      61.70  42.30  18.80

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time               1:29:25.08
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=5, GUM_CONSTANT_U t=3.2, rho=0, sat=IIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=91 #sig=31 cp=123 cp_orig=123

Gauge (%)                      2.37
Potency (%)                   38.38
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       31.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     91.00
GUM: no of variables         123.00
Relevant (avg no)             11.90
Insignificant (avg no)         0.79
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.28
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.88
ESE final model                1.15
ESE DGP                        0.99
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.00
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.00
Gauge (significant only)       2.07
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.40
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)        1.50
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   40.9   41.2   39.0   39.6   41.3   42.5   38.4   40.6   39.3   44.5   78.3   70.6   65.4   62.3   51.0   44.9   36.4   32.9   27.7   22.1   20.8   17.7   17.1   15.7   15.8   17.1   19.0   19.5   22.3   25.8

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   0   0   5   8  23  34  43  72  83  83  84  82  69  56  50  36  35  37 200


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      18.70   8.70   0.30
ARCH(1)    10.70   5.00   0.20
Normality   2.90   1.10   0.00
Hetero     11.70   5.90   0.00
Chow(70%)  33.70  22.00   0.40
Joint      55.20  34.80   0.90


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      20.00   9.40   0.00
ARCH(1)    11.10   5.40   0.20
Normality   2.60   1.00   0.00
Hetero     12.00   6.40   0.00
Chow(70%)  36.20  23.60   0.40
Joint      57.10  36.30   0.60


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      22.40  11.80   0.00
ARCH(1)    10.70   4.90   0.00
Normality   3.20   1.30   0.00
Hetero     13.40   7.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  41.80  30.00   0.40
Joint      60.40  42.20   0.40


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.10   4.90   0.80
ARCH(1)    19.50  11.70   4.60
Normality  37.80  25.50  12.40
Hetero     10.20   6.70   1.50
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      61.80  42.30  18.80

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time               1:27:11.14
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=5, GUM_CONSTANT_U t=4, rho=0, sat=IIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=91 #sig=31 cp=123 cp_orig=123

Gauge (%)                      2.38
Potency (%)                   42.18
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       31.00
GUM: irrelevant variables     91.00
GUM: no of variables         123.00
Relevant (avg no)             13.08
Insignificant (avg no)         0.77
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.28
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.89
ESE final model                1.16
ESE DGP                        0.99
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.10
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.60
Gauge (significant only)       2.07
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.20
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)        3.70
Both dominated (%)             0.00


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   57.3   58.3   57.2   58.8   56.9   59.6   54.3   57.4   56.5   59.0   75.2   68.5   63.5   57.6   47.8   39.8   33.4   29.5   24.9   20.0   17.0   15.3   15.5   13.6   14.4   15.3   15.9   18.5   21.4   25.3

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   0   0   1   4   7  18  23  56  56  56  68  97  91  77  78  61  45  43 219


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      22.40  13.80   0.20
ARCH(1)     9.90   4.10   0.20
Normality   3.40   1.00   0.00
Hetero     11.70   5.80   0.40
Chow(70%)  36.30  21.70   0.30
Joint      56.40  35.90   1.00


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      23.00  14.40   0.30
ARCH(1)    10.20   4.40   0.20
Normality   3.50   1.10   0.00
Hetero     11.70   5.90   0.20
Chow(70%)  37.50  22.10   0.20
Joint      57.80  36.90   0.80


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      25.20  16.60   0.20
ARCH(1)    11.10   5.00   0.00
Normality   3.60   1.60   0.00
Hetero     12.80   7.20   0.00
Chow(70%)  41.80  29.30   0.20
Joint      62.30  45.10   0.30


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.10   4.90   0.80
ARCH(1)    19.50  11.70   4.60
Normality  37.80  25.50  12.40
Hetero     10.20   6.50   1.50
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      61.70  42.20  18.80

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time               1:05:36.96
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=10, GUM_CONSTANT_U t=2.4, rho=0, sat=IIS+SIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=207 #sig=12 cp=220 cp_orig=220

Gauge (%)                      3.86
Potency (%)                   42.08
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       12.00
GUM: irrelevant variables    207.00
GUM: no of variables         220.00
Relevant (avg no)              5.05
Insignificant (avg no)         0.36
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.28
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    7.70
ESE final model                0.84
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.00
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.10
Gauge (significant only)       3.72
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.90
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       55.10
Both dominated (%)             0.50


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1   S:82
Hits   68.6   40.0   27.5   38.8   28.7   41.4   28.7   38.3   29.0   38.9   28.1   97.0

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   0   2   9  15  29  45  46  55  65  65  70  88  81  58  63  67  62  42 138


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      16.80   7.80   0.10
ARCH(1)     7.60   3.70   0.00
Normality   2.70   1.00   0.00
Hetero      5.10   1.60   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.20   0.30   0.00
Joint      30.10  13.90   0.10


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      16.80   8.40   0.20
ARCH(1)     7.50   3.40   0.00
Normality   2.70   0.90   0.00
Hetero      4.90   1.70   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.20   0.30   0.00
Joint      30.00  14.30   0.20


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      16.30   8.40   0.00
ARCH(1)     7.70   3.50   0.00
Normality   3.30   1.10   0.00
Hetero      5.90   2.20   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.00   0.30   0.00
Joint      30.70  14.90   0.00


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.10   4.90   0.70
ARCH(1)     9.00   5.00   1.40
Normality   9.10   4.50   1.20
Hetero      8.90   5.00   1.00
Chow(70%)   7.20   4.50   0.50
Joint      36.10  20.50   4.70

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time               1:02:18.02
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=10, GUM_CONSTANT_U t=3.2, rho=0, sat=IIS+SIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=207 #sig=12 cp=220 cp_orig=220

Gauge (%)                      3.99
Potency (%)                   57.26
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       12.00
GUM: irrelevant variables    207.00
GUM: no of variables         220.00
Relevant (avg no)              6.87
Insignificant (avg no)         0.36
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.28
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    7.98
ESE final model                0.83
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.00
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.50
Gauge (significant only)       3.85
F+DGP dominates F (%)          1.00
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       71.10
Both dominated (%)             1.00


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1   S:82
Hits   66.4   61.5   43.5   59.6   40.8   63.8   43.9   60.7   44.8   61.3   44.7   96.1

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   0   1   1   2   5  20  24  35  39  66  64  54  84  71  93  79  67  65 230


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      15.80   8.60   0.30
ARCH(1)     8.60   3.80   0.00
Normality   2.00   0.90   0.00
Hetero      6.00   2.20   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.00   0.70   0.00
Joint      30.30  14.90   0.30


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      15.30   8.80   0.30
ARCH(1)     8.00   3.20   0.10
Normality   2.30   1.00   0.00
Hetero      5.80   2.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.80   0.70   0.00
Joint      29.40  14.60   0.40


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      15.50   8.00   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.60   3.10   0.00
Normality   2.50   1.30   0.00
Hetero      7.80   3.60   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.90   0.40   0.00
Joint      32.50  15.40   0.00


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.10   5.00   0.60
ARCH(1)     9.00   5.10   1.40
Normality   9.30   4.50   1.20
Hetero      9.00   4.90   1.00
Chow(70%)   7.20   4.50   0.60
Joint      36.10  20.60   4.70

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time               1:03:30.61
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=10, GUM_CONSTANT_U t=4, rho=0, sat=IIS+SIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=207 #sig=12 cp=220 cp_orig=220

Gauge (%)                      3.74
Potency (%)                   73.02
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       12.00
GUM: irrelevant variables    207.00
GUM: no of variables         220.00
Relevant (avg no)              8.76
Insignificant (avg no)         0.33
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.25
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    7.49
ESE final model                0.83
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.80
Final contains DGP (% reps)   10.20
Gauge (significant only)       3.62
F+DGP dominates F (%)          1.50
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       80.20
Both dominated (%)             1.20


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1   S:82
Hits   71.3   79.2   62.9   80.6   59.2   81.3   60.8   77.3   63.8   81.0   62.0   96.9

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   4   9  17  26  38  55  49  73  95  85  83  79  73 313


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      17.60   7.70   1.00
ARCH(1)     7.20   2.70   0.30
Normality   4.50   1.70   0.00
Hetero      6.60   2.40   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.30   0.50   0.00
Joint      32.70  14.20   1.30


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      16.80   7.70   0.60
ARCH(1)     7.20   2.90   0.20
Normality   4.60   1.80   0.00
Hetero      6.70   2.20   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.60   0.70   0.00
Joint      32.70  14.40   0.80


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      16.80   8.30   0.10
ARCH(1)     7.80   3.40   0.00
Normality   4.60   1.80   0.00
Hetero      6.50   2.70   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.30   0.60   0.00
Joint      32.60  15.60   0.10


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.10   5.10   0.60
ARCH(1)     9.00   5.00   1.30
Normality   9.30   4.70   1.20
Hetero      9.40   4.60   1.10
Chow(70%)   7.20   4.50   0.50
Joint      36.60  20.80   4.60

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time               1:32:29.25
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=5, GUM_CONSTANT_U t=2.4, rho=0, sat=IIS+SIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=208 #sig=12 cp=221 cp_orig=221

Gauge (%)                      3.02
Potency (%)                   46.47
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       12.00
GUM: irrelevant variables    208.00
GUM: no of variables         221.00
Relevant (avg no)              5.58
Insignificant (avg no)         0.31
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.23
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    6.06
ESE final model                0.88
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.00
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.00
Gauge (significant only)       2.91
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.40
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       43.90
Both dominated (%)             0.30


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1  S:181
Hits  100.0   35.2   36.9   36.2   36.4   39.2   36.2   36.0   34.6   38.8   36.2   91.9

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   0   6  15  31  41  53  67  69  70  78  77  74  76  67  55  41  50  24 106


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      28.60  14.90   0.50
ARCH(1)     7.80   3.40   0.10
Normality   2.90   0.80   0.00
Hetero      4.70   2.60   0.10
Chow(70%)   2.90   0.60   0.10
Joint      39.80  21.00   0.80


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      28.70  14.80   0.30
ARCH(1)     8.10   3.60   0.10
Normality   3.20   1.00   0.00
Hetero      5.30   2.70   0.10
Chow(70%)   3.10   0.90   0.10
Joint      40.70  21.50   0.60


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      27.30  14.30   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.30   3.90   0.00
Normality   4.10   1.40   0.00
Hetero      5.80   3.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.30   0.90   0.00
Joint      40.50  22.00   0.00


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.80   5.40   1.30
ARCH(1)     7.30   2.80   1.00
Normality  10.10   5.50   1.80
Hetero     10.10   5.30   1.70
Chow(70%)  10.00   5.30   1.00
Joint      40.10  22.10   6.40

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time               1:32:13.60
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=5, GUM_CONSTANT_U t=3.2, rho=0, sat=IIS+SIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=208 #sig=12 cp=221 cp_orig=221

Gauge (%)                      3.09
Potency (%)                   64.68
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       12.00
GUM: irrelevant variables    208.00
GUM: no of variables         221.00
Relevant (avg no)              7.76
Insignificant (avg no)         0.36
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.25
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    6.16
ESE final model                0.87
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.00
Final contains DGP (% reps)    1.60
Gauge (significant only)       2.96
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.50
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       63.60
Both dominated (%)             0.50


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1  S:181
Hits  100.0   60.0   57.5   59.8   58.5   59.8   56.7   58.1   56.3   62.2   55.4   91.9

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   0   0   1   6  10  14  29  51  56  65  71  75  90  98  68  77  59  60 170


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      23.80  13.20   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.90   4.10   0.00
Normality   4.00   1.50   0.00
Hetero      4.90   2.10   0.10
Chow(70%)   2.00   0.60   0.00
Joint      37.20  19.20   0.20


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      23.30  13.00   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.80   4.20   0.10
Normality   3.60   1.30   0.00
Hetero      5.00   1.90   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.80   0.60   0.00
Joint      37.00  18.90   0.20


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      22.20  12.80   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.10   4.10   0.00
Normality   3.70   1.20   0.00
Hetero      5.80   2.80   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.50   0.90   0.00
Joint      36.20  19.60   0.00


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.80   5.40   1.30
ARCH(1)     7.30   2.80   1.00
Normality  10.10   5.50   1.80
Hetero     10.10   5.20   1.70
Chow(70%)  10.00   5.30   1.00
Joint      40.10  22.10   6.40

PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on  7-08-2013
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time               1:26:39.12
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5e  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=5, GUM_CONSTANT_U t=4, rho=0, sat=IIS+SIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=208 #sig=12 cp=221 cp_orig=221

Gauge (%)                      3.28
Potency (%)                   80.65
Replications, M=            1000.00
GUM: relevant variables       12.00
GUM: irrelevant variables    208.00
GUM: no of variables         221.00
Relevant (avg no)              9.68
Insignificant (avg no)         0.35
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.28
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    6.54
ESE final model                0.84
ESE DGP                        1.00
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.80
Final contains DGP (% reps)   12.40
Gauge (significant only)       3.15
F+DGP dominates F (%)          0.30
F+DGP dominates DGP (%)       81.30
Both dominated (%)             0.30


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1  S:181
Hits  100.0   78.6   77.0   79.5   77.2   79.0   77.5   77.1   76.7   79.6   74.5   91.1

Model size
   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20
   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   7  11  26  34  38  67  82 100  63  91  95  80 303


Diagnostic tests GUM0 rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      25.80  14.20   0.20
ARCH(1)     6.60   3.30   0.20
Normality   2.20   0.80   0.00
Hetero      6.60   3.10   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.10   1.20   0.00
Joint      39.30  21.10   0.40


Diagnostic tests Final GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      25.80  13.80   0.30
ARCH(1)     6.40   3.00   0.10
Normality   2.00   0.80   0.00
Hetero      6.20   2.80   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.20   1.30   0.00
Joint      39.10  20.50   0.40


Diagnostic tests final model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      25.10  14.20   0.00
ARCH(1)     7.70   3.70   0.00
Normality   2.40   1.00   0.00
Hetero      6.00   3.10   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.90   1.20   0.00
Joint      39.80  21.90   0.00


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.80   5.40   1.30
ARCH(1)     7.30   2.80   1.00
Normality  10.10   5.50   1.80
Hetero     10.10   5.20   1.70
Chow(70%)  10.00   5.30   1.00
Joint      40.10  22.10   6.40

