--------------- Ox  -rp1 at 07:08:38 on 17-Jul-2014 ---------------

Ox Professional version 7.04 (Windows_64/U/MT) (C) J.A. Doornik, 1994-2014
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 17-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  8:44.20
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLc(delta=0, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      1.3667
Potency (%)                   43.0381
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)              9.0380
Insignificant (avg no)         0.9530
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2870
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.8200
ESE final model                1.0431
ESE DGP                        0.9977
Final equals DGP (% reps)      9.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   24.7000
Gauge (significant only)       1.0123
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       13.1000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     19.2000
Both dominated at 5%           2.4000


        y_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101
Hits   95.5   97.8   66.5   45.3   36.8   35.5   36.1   34.9   35.8   35.3   34.9   34.3   35.3   34.9   35.3   35.0   35.0   35.4   34.3   35.4   34.5

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    1   61  149  158  108   78   54   33   19    9   10    2    2    1    0    0    1    0    7  307


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.10   4.00   0.40
ARCH(1)    19.20  12.40   5.80
Normality  37.50  26.90  11.20
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      55.60  40.00  17.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      51.30  39.10   0.20
ARCH(1)    11.20   6.20   0.60
Normality   7.20   3.10   0.00
Hetero      2.20   1.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  54.00  41.20   0.00
Joint      77.40  64.30   0.80

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      46.70  31.60   0.20
ARCH(1)    11.10   6.50   0.70
Normality   7.10   3.10   0.00
Hetero      1.70   0.60   0.00
Chow(70%)  45.40  29.40   0.00
Joint      72.00  51.60   0.90

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 17-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  5:59.10
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLc(delta=0, gamma=8, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      1.1370
Potency (%)                   81.4714
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)             17.1090
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2890
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0880
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.8330
ESE final model                0.9870
ESE DGP                        0.9977
Final equals DGP (% reps)     32.6000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   71.9000
Gauge (significant only)       1.0284
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        4.5000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     42.7000
Both dominated at 5%           2.0000


        y_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101
Hits   95.2  100.0   96.9   86.2   80.0   78.2   78.4   78.7   78.6   78.0   78.6   78.0   78.3   78.7   78.0   77.8   78.9   78.4   77.8   78.3   77.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    8   41   52   46   30   24   12    5    3    2    3    1    1    0    0    0    1    0  771


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.10   4.00   0.40
ARCH(1)    19.20  12.40   5.80
Normality  37.50  26.90  11.20
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      55.60  40.00  17.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      23.50  15.30   0.10
ARCH(1)    16.40   9.80   0.70
Normality  11.90   6.00   0.90
Hetero      0.70   0.50   0.00
Chow(70%)  16.70  12.30   0.00
Joint      51.20  35.50   1.70

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      21.20  13.30   0.20
ARCH(1)    16.50   9.50   0.70
Normality  12.40   6.20   0.90
Hetero      0.70   0.40   0.00
Chow(70%)  14.30  10.10   0.00
Joint      48.90  32.30   1.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 17-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  5:30.95
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLc(delta=0, gamma=10, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      1.1247
Potency (%)                   92.0143
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)             19.3230
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1310
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0660
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.8450
ESE final model                0.9699
ESE DGP                        0.9977
Final equals DGP (% reps)     39.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   85.2000
Gauge (significant only)       1.0432
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        1.7000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     48.3000
Both dominated at 5%           0.9000


        y_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101
Hits   95.1  100.0   99.7   95.3   92.0   90.7   90.5   90.7   90.9   90.7   90.6   90.6   90.4   90.8   90.6   90.3   90.7   90.8   90.9   90.4   90.6

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0   11   32   11   15   14    6    5    3    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0  901


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.10   4.00   0.40
ARCH(1)    19.20  12.40   5.80
Normality  37.50  26.90  11.20
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      55.60  40.00  17.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      16.70   9.20   0.00
ARCH(1)    17.60  10.30   0.70
Normality  13.80   7.20   1.10
Hetero      0.40   0.20   0.00
Chow(70%)   6.00   4.40   0.00
Joint      43.60  27.50   1.80

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      15.00   8.30   0.00
ARCH(1)    17.00  10.00   0.70
Normality  13.80   7.00   1.10
Hetero      0.40   0.20   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.50   4.00   0.00
Joint      41.60  25.90   1.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 17-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 11:44.25
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLc(delta=1, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=22 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      1.6063
Potency (%)                   13.0773
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       22.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)              2.8770
Insignificant (avg no)         0.6840
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.5540
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.7310
ESE final model                1.1114
ESE DGP                        0.9976
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.3000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.3000
Gauge (significant only)       0.9137
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        2.5000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      0.0000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101Constant
Hits  100.0   96.1   37.4   10.3    4.2    2.6    2.2    3.0    2.9    3.2    2.9    2.6    2.7    2.1    1.6    2.0    2.6    2.0    1.7    3.2    2.0    0.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0   13  190  248  217  128   82   54   31   23    5    2    3    0    0    0    0    0    1    0    3


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.90   4.90   0.80
ARCH(1)    18.20  12.90   5.10
Normality  37.60  27.20  11.00
Hetero      0.10   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      55.50  41.20  16.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      72.70  59.20   0.40
ARCH(1)    10.20   5.40   0.30
Normality   3.40   1.10   0.10
Hetero      5.40   2.70   0.10
Chow(70%)  14.50   6.20   0.00
Joint      82.40  66.10   0.80

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      67.80  46.30   0.50
ARCH(1)    10.40   5.90   0.30
Normality   3.00   1.10   0.10
Hetero      5.10   2.10   0.10
Chow(70%)  14.30   6.00   0.00
Joint      78.30  53.90   0.90

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 17-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 11:47.50
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLc(delta=1, gamma=8, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=22 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      1.5738
Potency (%)                   15.7182
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       22.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.4580
Insignificant (avg no)         0.6810
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.5490
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.7100
ESE final model                1.1169
ESE DGP                        0.9976
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.2000
Gauge (significant only)       0.8875
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        3.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      0.1000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101Constant
Hits   99.9  100.0   78.7   23.6    5.4    2.7    2.5    3.2    2.7    2.3    2.7    2.9    2.7    2.0    1.7    2.1    2.1    2.2    1.4    2.6    2.1    0.3

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   80  224  239  188  111   76   39   17    7   10    2    2    1    1    0    0    0    0    3


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.90   4.90   0.80
ARCH(1)    18.20  12.90   5.10
Normality  37.60  27.20  11.00
Hetero      0.10   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      55.50  41.20  16.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      74.40  61.90   0.60
ARCH(1)     9.70   5.20   0.50
Normality   3.70   1.80   0.00
Hetero      6.10   2.10   0.10
Chow(70%)  12.30   6.30   0.00
Joint      82.30  68.40   1.20

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      68.90  49.90   0.70
ARCH(1)    10.40   5.40   0.50
Normality   4.10   1.90   0.00
Hetero      5.50   1.70   0.10
Chow(70%)  12.10   6.30   0.00
Joint      78.10  58.40   1.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 17-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 11:45.18
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLc(delta=1, gamma=10, USE_CONSTANT_X)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=22 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      1.5425
Potency (%)                   17.3636
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       22.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.8200
Insignificant (avg no)         0.6530
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.5290
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.7050
ESE final model                1.1170
ESE DGP                        0.9976
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.4000
Gauge (significant only)       0.8812
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        3.6000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      0.6000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101Constant
Hits   99.8  100.0   94.8   36.2    7.4    2.6    2.3    3.5    2.8    3.2    3.3    3.1    2.9    2.0    2.4    2.2    2.5    2.6    2.0    3.3    2.4    0.7

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   23  212  246  216  132   63   41   28   18    7    5    2    0    1    0    0    0    0    6


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.90   4.90   0.80
ARCH(1)    18.20  12.90   5.10
Normality  37.60  27.20  11.00
Hetero      0.10   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      55.50  41.20  16.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      74.70  60.50   0.80
ARCH(1)     9.40   5.00   0.30
Normality   3.60   1.40   0.00
Hetero      6.10   2.40   0.20
Chow(70%)  11.80   5.80   0.00
Joint      83.30  67.40   1.30

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      69.80  48.40   0.90
ARCH(1)     9.70   5.30   0.30
Normality   3.90   1.40   0.00
Hetero      5.30   2.30   0.20
Chow(70%)  11.20   5.20   0.00
Joint      79.00  56.30   1.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 17-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  8:23.26
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLc(delta=0, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      1.3775
Potency (%)                   46.3857
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)              9.7410
Insignificant (avg no)         0.8290
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2750
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.8270
ESE final model                1.0383
ESE DGP                        0.9977
Final equals DGP (% reps)     10.9000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   27.6000
Gauge (significant only)       1.0337
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       10.9000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     23.5000
Both dominated at 5%           2.2000


        y_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101
Hits   94.3   97.1   67.2   48.4   41.1   39.3   39.8   39.7   39.5   39.0   39.0   39.0   39.0   39.0   39.2   38.6   39.1   38.8   38.1   39.5   39.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    1   67  142  132  111   73   45   37   16    6    6    3    0    1    0    0    1    1  358


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.10   4.00   0.40
ARCH(1)    19.20  12.40   5.80
Normality  37.50  26.90  11.20
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      55.60  40.00  17.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      45.10  32.50   0.20
ARCH(1)    11.90   6.80   0.70
Normality   7.50   3.20   0.20
Hetero      2.70   1.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  50.50  39.30   0.00
Joint      73.70  60.60   1.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      40.20  25.90   0.20
ARCH(1)    10.50   6.20   1.00
Normality   7.20   3.30   0.20
Hetero      1.60   0.80   0.00
Chow(70%)  44.00  29.10   0.00
Joint      68.30  49.50   1.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 17-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  5:51.78
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLc(delta=0, gamma=8, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      1.2188
Potency (%)                   84.7190
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)             17.7910
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2640
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0960
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.8790
ESE final model                0.9800
ESE DGP                        0.9977
Final equals DGP (% reps)     33.8000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   75.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.0988
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        4.5000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     46.7000
Both dominated at 5%           1.4000


        y_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101
Hits   94.1  100.0   97.5   89.0   84.1   82.2   82.0   82.5   82.6   82.0   82.5   82.0   81.8   82.6   82.0   81.8   82.5   81.9   81.9   82.2   81.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    5   31   39   40   31   20    7    6    4    3    0    1    0    0    0    0    1  812


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.10   4.00   0.40
ARCH(1)    19.20  12.40   5.80
Normality  37.50  26.90  11.20
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      55.60  40.00  17.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      20.10  13.40   0.00
ARCH(1)    15.70  10.60   0.90
Normality  11.20   5.10   0.70
Hetero      0.20   0.20   0.00
Chow(70%)  13.50   9.40   0.00
Joint      47.00  32.40   1.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      18.00  10.50   0.00
ARCH(1)    15.20  10.20   0.90
Normality  11.40   5.30   0.80
Hetero      0.20   0.10   0.00
Chow(70%)  11.10   7.30   0.00
Joint      44.70  28.80   1.70

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 17-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  5:25.82
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLc(delta=0, gamma=10, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      1.1900
Potency (%)                   93.0952
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)             19.5500
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1210
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0700
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.8820
ESE final model                0.9670
ESE DGP                        0.9977
Final equals DGP (% reps)     39.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   85.7000
Gauge (significant only)       1.1025
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        1.5000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     51.0000
Both dominated at 5%           0.3000


        y_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101
Hits   94.1  100.0  100.0   95.7   92.8   92.1   91.9   92.1   92.4   92.2   91.9   92.2   91.8   92.3   91.9   91.9   91.8   92.0   92.0   91.8   92.1

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0   13   24   11   16   10    2    3    2    1    1    0    1    0    0    0    0  916


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.10   4.00   0.40
ARCH(1)    19.20  12.40   5.80
Normality  37.50  26.90  11.20
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      55.60  40.00  17.20

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      14.90   8.10   0.00
ARCH(1)    17.00  11.00   1.00
Normality  12.70   6.00   0.90
Hetero      0.20   0.10   0.00
Chow(70%)   6.10   4.10   0.00
Joint      41.70  26.40   1.90

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      14.10   7.20   0.00
ARCH(1)    16.70  10.80   1.00
Normality  12.50   5.90   0.90
Hetero      0.10   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.40   3.00   0.00
Joint      40.80  24.80   1.90

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 17-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  8:14.72
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLc(delta=1, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      1.3787
Potency (%)                   46.3714
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)              9.7380
Insignificant (avg no)         0.8130
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2460
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.8570
ESE final model                1.0386
ESE DGP                        0.9976
Final equals DGP (% reps)     10.5000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   28.1000
Gauge (significant only)       1.0713
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       10.5000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     21.3000
Both dominated at 5%           2.0000


        y_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101
Hits   94.7   96.9   67.4   48.6   40.9   39.7   39.5   39.6   39.4   39.3   39.0   38.7   38.8   38.7   39.1   38.8   39.1   39.1   38.5   39.6   38.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    1   68  141  139   98   75   56   32   14    6    6    3    0    0    0    1    1    3  356


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.90   4.90   0.80
ARCH(1)    18.20  12.90   5.10
Normality  37.60  27.20  11.00
Hetero      0.10   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      55.50  41.20  16.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      44.90  33.60   0.10
ARCH(1)    12.80   7.00   0.70
Normality   7.80   3.20   0.20
Hetero      2.60   1.30   0.00
Chow(70%)  51.10  41.30   0.00
Joint      74.40  62.70   1.00

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      40.30  27.50   0.30
ARCH(1)    12.10   6.90   0.80
Normality   7.40   3.40   0.20
Hetero      1.80   1.10   0.00
Chow(70%)  45.30  31.40   0.00
Joint      69.30  52.30   1.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 17-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  5:45.70
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLc(delta=1, gamma=8, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      1.2012
Potency (%)                   85.5095
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)             17.9570
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2500
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0830
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.8780
ESE final model                0.9788
ESE DGP                        0.9976
Final equals DGP (% reps)     33.7000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   76.6000
Gauge (significant only)       1.0975
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        3.7000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     46.2000
Both dominated at 5%           1.6000


        y_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101
Hits   94.7  100.0   97.5   89.5   85.0   83.3   83.0   82.9   83.5   83.0   83.4   83.1   82.9   83.2   83.2   82.3   83.2   82.9   83.3   83.0   82.8

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    6   37   35   33   30   16    9    4    1    3    1    2    1    0    0    0    0  822


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.90   4.90   0.80
ARCH(1)    18.20  12.90   5.10
Normality  37.60  27.20  11.00
Hetero      0.10   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      55.50  41.20  16.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      20.10  13.30   0.00
ARCH(1)    15.90  10.60   1.00
Normality  11.50   5.00   0.90
Hetero      0.50   0.30   0.00
Chow(70%)  13.20   9.60   0.00
Joint      47.40  32.90   1.90

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      18.20  11.20   0.10
ARCH(1)    15.40  10.10   1.00
Normality  11.40   5.00   0.90
Hetero      0.40   0.20   0.00
Chow(70%)  11.20   7.80   0.00
Joint      44.70  29.80   2.00

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 17-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  5:25.93
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLc(delta=1, gamma=10, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=80 #sig=21 cp=102 cp_orig=102

Gauge (%)                      1.1950
Potency (%)                   94.2333
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     80.0000
GUM: no of variables         102.0000
Relevant (avg no)             19.7890
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1190
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0670
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.8890
ESE final model                0.9646
ESE DGP                        0.9976
Final equals DGP (% reps)     38.8000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   87.6000
Gauge (significant only)       1.1113
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        1.6000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     51.0000
Both dominated at 5%           0.7000


        y_1   I:82   I:83   I:84   I:85   I:86   I:87   I:88   I:89   I:90   I:91   I:92   I:93   I:94   I:95   I:96   I:97   I:98   I:99  I:100  I:101
Hits   94.7  100.0  100.0   96.9   94.2   93.4   93.4   93.2   93.9   93.4   93.3   93.2   93.2   93.6   93.2   93.0   93.3   93.3   93.4   93.0   93.3

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    9   21    8   12    8    3    4    2    0    3    1    0    0    0    0    0  929


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.90   4.90   0.80
ARCH(1)    18.20  12.90   5.10
Normality  37.60  27.20  11.00
Hetero      0.10   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      55.50  41.20  16.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      14.60   9.10   0.00
ARCH(1)    17.10  11.10   1.10
Normality  13.20   6.30   1.20
Hetero      0.30   0.10   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.80   3.10   0.00
Joint      41.60  26.70   2.30

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      13.80   7.80   0.00
ARCH(1)    16.30  10.80   1.10
Normality  13.10   6.20   1.20
Hetero      0.20   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.30   2.30   0.00
Joint      40.00  24.80   2.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
