--------------- Ox -rp1 at 22:43:19 on 22-Jul-2014 ---------------

Ox Professional version 7.04 (OS_X_64/U/MT) (C) J.A. Doornik, 1994-2014
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 10:09.87
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=10, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=2.4, rho=0, sat=IIS+SIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=207 #sig=12 cp=220 cp_orig=220

Gauge (%)                      1.6237
Potency (%)                   44.3083
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    207.0000
GUM: no of variables         220.0000
Relevant (avg no)              5.3170
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2690
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1560
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    3.2050
ESE final model                0.9634
ESE DGP                        0.9954
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.5483
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       14.3000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     16.6000
Both dominated at 5%           3.4000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1  S1:81
Hits   97.4   36.6   32.9   34.1   29.6   37.3   32.3   32.8   33.5   35.5   30.6   99.1

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0   16   38   65   88  102  112  113   85   83   82   70   46   30   27   14   10    4   15


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.40   4.20   1.00
ARCH(1)     9.30   5.20   1.40
Normality   9.30   4.10   1.10
Hetero      9.60   5.40   1.20
Chow(70%)   7.20   4.70   0.60
Joint      38.00  21.00   4.90

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      13.70   6.80   0.10
ARCH(1)     7.20   3.30   0.00
Normality   4.00   1.50   0.00
Hetero      4.40   1.40   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.20   0.60   0.00
Joint      27.50  13.10   0.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      13.50   6.20   0.20
ARCH(1)     8.10   3.40   0.10
Normality   4.00   1.70   0.00
Hetero      3.60   1.60   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.40   0.60   0.00
Joint      28.30  13.10   0.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 10:14.32
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=10, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=3.2, rho=0, sat=IIS+SIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=207 #sig=12 cp=220 cp_orig=220

Gauge (%)                      1.8106
Potency (%)                   62.7000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    207.0000
GUM: no of variables         220.0000
Relevant (avg no)              7.5240
Insignificant (avg no)         0.3130
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1870
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    3.5610
ESE final model                0.9459
ESE DGP                        0.9954
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    1.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.7203
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       17.3000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     36.8000
Both dominated at 5%           9.7000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1  S1:81
Hits   96.5   59.3   52.4   59.4   49.8   60.0   52.9   56.9   55.6   57.3   53.5   98.8

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    1    7    9   25   47   59  103   99  108  101  113   80   69   50   28   30   19   52


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.60   4.10   1.00
ARCH(1)     9.30   5.10   1.40
Normality   9.50   4.20   1.10
Hetero      9.80   5.30   1.30
Chow(70%)   7.20   4.80   0.60
Joint      38.20  20.80   5.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      12.40   5.40   0.10
ARCH(1)     6.80   2.60   0.00
Normality   2.80   1.00   0.00
Hetero      5.50   2.10   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.50   0.50   0.00
Joint      26.10  11.00   0.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      12.40   6.10   0.20
ARCH(1)     7.30   3.00   0.00
Normality   3.40   1.00   0.00
Hetero      4.60   1.70   0.10
Chow(70%)   1.50   0.40   0.00
Joint      25.70  11.40   0.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  9:41.98
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=10, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=4, rho=0, sat=IIS+SIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=207 #sig=12 cp=220 cp_orig=220

Gauge (%)                      1.7411
Potency (%)                   79.9417
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    207.0000
GUM: no of variables         220.0000
Relevant (avg no)              9.5930
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2320
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1560
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    3.4480
ESE final model                0.9273
ESE DGP                        0.9954
Final equals DGP (% reps)      3.7000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   13.6000
Gauge (significant only)       1.6657
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       12.7000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     57.0000
Both dominated at 5%          11.0000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1  S1:81
Hits   97.3   80.3   73.7   79.2   70.7   80.6   73.0   76.7   73.6   81.0   73.6   99.6

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    3    4    6   18   37   44   77  105  154  139   97   90   72   45   45   64


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.60   4.30   1.00
ARCH(1)     9.20   4.90   1.40
Normality   9.40   4.30   1.00
Hetero      9.60   5.30   1.30
Chow(70%)   7.00   4.90   0.60
Joint      37.60  21.00   5.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      13.20   6.80   0.00
ARCH(1)     6.10   2.70   0.10
Normality   4.40   1.70   0.00
Hetero      6.20   3.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.90   0.70   0.00
Joint      28.10  13.60   0.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      13.30   6.90   0.30
ARCH(1)     6.00   2.50   0.40
Normality   3.90   1.30   0.00
Hetero      5.90   3.10   0.10
Chow(70%)   1.50   0.70   0.00
Joint      27.00  13.10   0.70

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 13:20.23
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=2.4, rho=0, sat=IIS+SIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=208 #sig=12 cp=221 cp_orig=221

Gauge (%)                      1.7774
Potency (%)                   43.7750
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    208.0000
GUM: no of variables         221.0000
Relevant (avg no)              5.2530
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2350
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1390
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    3.5580
ESE final model                0.9720
ESE DGP                        0.9964
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.7106
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       13.9000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     18.1000
Both dominated at 5%           3.6000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1 S1:180
Hits  100.0   34.1   35.8   33.0   35.3   36.9   34.0   33.8   33.0   33.8   33.9   81.7

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0   15   37   69   85  118   99  110   98   73   68   62   44   27   25   19   15    9   27


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      12.00   6.00   1.50
ARCH(1)     6.90   3.00   0.90
Normality  11.10   5.50   1.60
Hetero     10.00   5.70   1.10
Chow(70%)   7.30   4.20   1.10
Joint      39.20  22.40   6.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      20.40  12.90   0.10
ARCH(1)     6.40   3.20   0.00
Normality   4.50   2.20   0.00
Hetero      4.30   1.60   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.30   1.00   0.00
Joint      34.10  19.80   0.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      19.90  11.60   0.30
ARCH(1)     7.10   2.80   0.10
Normality   4.00   2.20   0.00
Hetero      4.10   1.60   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.70   0.80   0.00
Joint      33.10  17.90   0.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 12:26.81
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=3.2, rho=0, sat=IIS+SIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=208 #sig=12 cp=221 cp_orig=221

Gauge (%)                      1.8861
Potency (%)                   62.5333
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    208.0000
GUM: no of variables         221.0000
Relevant (avg no)              7.5040
Insignificant (avg no)         0.3060
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1770
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    3.7460
ESE final model                0.9598
ESE DGP                        0.9964
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    1.4000
Gauge (significant only)       1.8010
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       16.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     34.8000
Both dominated at 5%           7.9000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1 S1:180
Hits  100.0   57.1   55.1   56.7   56.8   59.2   57.1   55.4   54.7   58.7   56.8   82.8

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    6   11   35   39   57   85  121  100  108  105   83   62   50   48   22   19   49


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      12.00   6.00   1.50
ARCH(1)     6.90   3.00   0.90
Normality  11.10   5.50   1.60
Hetero      9.90   5.70   1.10
Chow(70%)   7.30   4.20   1.10
Joint      39.10  22.40   6.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      18.70   9.40   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.50   3.30   0.00
Normality   5.00   2.60   0.00
Hetero      4.70   2.30   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.10   1.10   0.00
Joint      34.60  17.50   0.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      19.30   9.50   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.00   3.70   0.10
Normality   4.30   2.30   0.00
Hetero      4.20   1.90   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.80   0.80   0.00
Joint      34.40  17.20   0.20

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 11:35.47
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=4, rho=0, sat=IIS+SIS)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=208 #sig=12 cp=221 cp_orig=221

Gauge (%)                      1.8197
Potency (%)                   79.0917
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    208.0000
GUM: no of variables         221.0000
Relevant (avg no)              9.4910
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2630
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1640
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    3.6210
ESE final model                0.9430
ESE DGP                        0.9964
Final equals DGP (% reps)      2.5000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   11.5000
Gauge (significant only)       1.7409
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        9.3000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     53.1000
Both dominated at 5%           7.0000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1 S1:180
Hits  100.0   77.0   75.7   78.0   76.2   76.4   77.6   76.2   75.1   79.1   75.0   82.8

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    0    1   16   18   32   67   93  101  136  137  111   69   69   35   29   86


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      12.00   6.00   1.50
ARCH(1)     6.90   3.00   0.90
Normality  11.10   5.50   1.60
Hetero      9.90   5.70   1.10
Chow(70%)   7.30   4.20   1.10
Joint      39.10  22.40   6.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      18.50   8.80   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.90   3.90   0.00
Normality   3.80   1.40   0.00
Hetero      6.20   2.80   0.10
Chow(70%)   2.90   1.10   0.00
Joint      34.60  17.10   0.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      17.20   7.40   0.30
ARCH(1)     7.20   2.80   0.00
Normality   2.90   1.00   0.00
Hetero      5.20   2.00   0.20
Chow(70%)   1.60   0.80   0.00
Joint      29.80  13.30   0.50

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
