
Ox Professional version 7.04 (Windows/U/MT) (C) J.A. Doornik, 1994-2014
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  9:22.10
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** IUc(delta=0.2, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=100 #sig=2 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.3880
Potency (%)                   83.3500
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        2.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    100.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.6670
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0340
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0310
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.3570
ESE final model                0.9519
ESE DGP                        0.9979
Final equals DGP (% reps)     20.4000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   66.7000
Gauge (significant only)       1.3570
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.1000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     59.1000
Both dominated at 5%           0.1000


        y_1  I:181
Hits  100.0   66.7

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0  100  310  270  187   72   33   15    6    4    3    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.30   4.90   1.30
ARCH(1)     7.60   3.70   0.50
Normality   9.90   5.10   1.50
Hetero      5.10   2.70   0.60
Chow(70%)   8.80   3.40   1.00
Joint      33.70  17.90   4.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.60   4.80   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.80   4.40   0.00
Normality   4.10   1.00   0.10
Hetero      3.10   1.30   0.10
Chow(70%)   6.40   2.20   0.00
Joint      27.80  13.00   0.30

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.60   4.40   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.60   4.20   0.00
Normality   4.00   1.00   0.10
Hetero      3.10   1.30   0.10
Chow(70%)   6.30   2.20   0.00
Joint      27.40  12.40   0.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  9:25.65
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** IUc(delta=0.2, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=100 #sig=2 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.3000
Potency (%)                   95.6000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        2.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    100.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.9120
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0360
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0340
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.2660
ESE final model                0.9518
ESE DGP                        0.9982
Final equals DGP (% reps)     29.8000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   91.2000
Gauge (significant only)       1.2660
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     64.7000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1  I:181
Hits  100.0   91.2

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   31  321  306  198   83   35   16    5    1    2    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.50   4.90   1.30
ARCH(1)     7.50   3.90   0.40
Normality  10.00   5.20   1.50
Hetero      5.10   3.00   0.60
Chow(70%)   8.90   3.30   1.10
Joint      33.80  18.30   4.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.70   4.70   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.60   3.60   0.10
Normality   4.30   1.20   0.00
Hetero      2.60   1.10   0.10
Chow(70%)   5.40   1.40   0.00
Joint      26.40  11.80   0.30

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.30   4.20   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.60   3.60   0.10
Normality   4.10   1.10   0.00
Hetero      2.70   1.10   0.10
Chow(70%)   5.50   1.40   0.00
Joint      26.20  11.20   0.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  9:21.14
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** IUc(delta=0.2, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=100 #sig=2 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.2530
Potency (%)                   99.5000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        2.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    100.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.9900
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0350
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0350
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.2180
ESE final model                0.9519
ESE DGP                        0.9984
Final equals DGP (% reps)     34.4000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   99.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.2180
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     64.8000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1  I:181
Hits  100.0   99.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    4  347  305  192   90   39   14    5    1    2    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.50   4.70   1.40
ARCH(1)     7.50   3.90   0.40
Normality  10.20   5.30   1.50
Hetero      5.20   2.80   0.60
Chow(70%)   9.10   3.30   1.10
Joint      34.10  18.00   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.60   4.70   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.40   3.80   0.10
Normality   3.60   1.20   0.10
Hetero      2.60   1.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.00   1.30   0.00
Joint      24.90  11.40   0.30

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.10   4.20   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.30   3.70   0.10
Normality   3.60   1.20   0.10
Hetero      2.30   1.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.00   1.10   0.00
Joint      24.60  10.90   0.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 10:32.17
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BUc(delta=0.2, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.0321
Potency (%)                   21.0952
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)              4.4300
Insignificant (avg no)         1.0780
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2220
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.6140
ESE final model                1.0770
ESE DGP                        0.9949
Final equals DGP (% reps)      1.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    2.9000
Gauge (significant only)       0.7580
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       22.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      2.2000
Both dominated at 5%           0.3000


        y_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   46.2   44.1   35.8   30.8   28.7   22.2   21.4   16.2   13.7   11.3   10.5    7.5    7.3    6.4    6.7    5.3    6.4    6.5    7.1    8.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   45  110  187  197  145   95   72   56   20   18    6    4    1    2    3    0    0    0   39


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   5.00   1.20
ARCH(1)    16.10  10.40   4.50
Normality  37.10  26.00  11.40
Hetero      0.10   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      54.30  38.70  16.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      35.00  23.60   0.10
ARCH(1)     7.80   3.50   0.00
Normality   3.20   1.10   0.00
Hetero      8.50   4.40   0.00
Chow(70%)  69.80  53.70   0.10
Joint      81.50  65.60   0.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      29.50  16.90   0.10
ARCH(1)     7.70   3.50   0.20
Normality   3.30   1.10   0.00
Hetero      7.40   3.60   0.00
Chow(70%)  58.30  40.20   0.10
Joint      71.90  50.30   0.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 10:11.89
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BUc(delta=0.2, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      0.9852
Potency (%)                   38.8810
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)              8.1650
Insignificant (avg no)         1.0130
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1740
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.6240
ESE final model                1.0755
ESE DGP                        0.9949
Final equals DGP (% reps)      5.7000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   15.1000
Gauge (significant only)       0.7704
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       21.7000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     11.0000
Both dominated at 5%           1.3000


        y_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   76.8   74.8   67.2   60.0   54.9   47.4   40.6   34.8   30.6   27.0   25.5   20.2   19.0   18.8   18.8   17.8   18.6   19.7   21.6   22.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    3   18   66  107  139  123  136   97   63   38   15    9   14    3    1    2    0    1  165


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   5.00   1.20
ARCH(1)    16.10  10.40   4.50
Normality  37.10  26.00  11.40
Hetero      0.10   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      54.30  38.70  16.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      33.60  23.70   0.00
ARCH(1)     9.70   4.40   0.10
Normality   5.60   1.80   0.20
Hetero     10.20   5.90   0.00
Chow(70%)  60.60  47.30   0.00
Joint      74.30  60.80   0.30

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      27.40  16.70   0.00
ARCH(1)    10.50   4.90   0.30
Normality   5.50   2.10   0.30
Hetero      8.00   4.60   0.00
Chow(70%)  48.30  35.30   0.00
Joint      65.40  47.40   0.60

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  9:13.55
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BUc(delta=0.2, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      0.9716
Potency (%)                   53.9095
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)             11.3210
Insignificant (avg no)         0.7050
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1210
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.6660
ESE final model                1.0594
ESE DGP                        0.9949
Final equals DGP (% reps)      9.9000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   27.6000
Gauge (significant only)       0.8222
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       14.8000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     18.8000
Both dominated at 5%           1.0000


        y_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   95.0   92.9   89.2   81.4   76.1   69.9   61.4   52.7   46.0   41.4   39.5   34.2   31.6   30.1   30.2   29.2   29.9   31.4   34.8   35.2

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    4   17   69   86  132  123  117   63   43   25   14    8    7    5    4    1  282


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   5.00   1.20
ARCH(1)    16.10  10.40   4.50
Normality  37.10  26.00  11.40
Hetero      0.10   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      54.30  38.70  16.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      28.90  18.70   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.70   3.80   0.10
Normality   6.00   2.40   0.20
Hetero     10.10   5.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  42.20  31.10   0.00
Joint      61.90  46.60   0.30

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      24.20  13.40   0.00
ARCH(1)     9.50   4.00   0.10
Normality   6.70   2.80   0.20
Hetero      8.70   4.10   0.00
Chow(70%)  35.50  24.50   0.00
Joint      56.80  37.80   0.30

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  9:48.94
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MIUc(delta=0.2, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=96 #sig=6 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.0281
Potency (%)                   55.8500
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        6.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     96.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.3510
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0230
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0170
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.9700
ESE final model                1.0202
ESE DGP                        0.9991
Final equals DGP (% reps)      1.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    5.1000
Gauge (significant only)       1.0104
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        1.4000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     13.0000
Both dominated at 5%           0.4000


        y_1  I:101  I:124  I:149  I:174  I:197
Hits  100.0   47.2   53.1   35.7   42.5   56.6

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   36  123  200  229  176  106   64   42   13    5    4    0    1    0    0    1    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   4.70   1.80
ARCH(1)     7.20   3.70   0.70
Normality  11.90   6.80   2.20
Hetero      1.00   0.60   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.70   2.10   0.50
Joint      29.70  16.40   5.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       7.50   3.60   0.00
ARCH(1)     6.40   2.90   0.10
Normality  13.60   8.00   2.00
Hetero      2.90   0.90   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.40   2.20   0.00
Joint      31.50  17.00   2.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       7.50   3.40   0.00
ARCH(1)     6.50   2.90   0.10
Normality  13.60   8.00   2.00
Hetero      2.80   0.80   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.30   1.90   0.00
Joint      31.60  16.50   2.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 10:38.97
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MIUc(delta=0.2, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=96 #sig=6 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.0604
Potency (%)                   79.3500
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        6.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     96.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)              4.7610
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0220
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0200
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.9980
ESE final model                1.0085
ESE DGP                        0.9995
Final equals DGP (% reps)      9.7000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   32.7000
Gauge (significant only)       1.0396
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     31.8000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1  I:101  I:124  I:149  I:174  I:197
Hits  100.0   76.0   79.6   63.8   72.0   84.7

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    2   24   75  143  209  226  154  100   39   17    7    1    1    1    0    1    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   4.70   1.80
ARCH(1)     7.20   3.60   0.70
Normality  11.70   6.90   2.10
Hetero      1.00   0.90   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.70   2.10   0.50
Joint      29.40  16.60   4.90

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.10   3.90   0.00
ARCH(1)     6.10   2.50   0.00
Normality  21.30  15.10   7.40
Hetero      1.30   0.60   0.20
Chow(70%)   3.00   0.70   0.00
Joint      35.90  21.40   7.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.00   3.40   0.00
ARCH(1)     6.00   2.70   0.00
Normality  21.10  15.00   7.40
Hetero      1.20   0.60   0.20
Chow(70%)   3.00   0.50   0.00
Joint      35.60  20.90   7.60

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 22-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 12:54.38
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MIUc(delta=0.2, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=96 #sig=6 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.0875
Potency (%)                   93.5167
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        6.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     96.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)              5.6110
Insignificant (avg no)         0.0240
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0240
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.0200
ESE final model                0.9835
ESE DGP                        0.9997
Final equals DGP (% reps)     28.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   74.2000
Gauge (significant only)       1.0625
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     48.0000
Both dominated at 5%           0.1000


        y_1  I:101  I:124  I:149  I:174  I:197
Hits  100.0   93.8   94.1   88.1   87.9   97.2

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    1   22   37  108  342  246  151   52   24    9    2    3    1    0    1    1    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.30   4.80   1.80
ARCH(1)     7.10   3.60   0.70
Normality  11.60   6.90   2.00
Hetero      1.10   0.50   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.40   2.20   0.40
Joint      29.30  16.40   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.40   4.30   0.00
ARCH(1)     7.10   3.30   0.30
Normality  13.10  10.70   6.50
Hetero      1.30   0.30   0.10
Chow(70%)   2.70   0.80   0.00
Joint      30.10  18.60   6.90

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.50   3.80   0.00
ARCH(1)     7.10   3.40   0.30
Normality  13.10  10.60   6.50
Hetero      1.20   0.30   0.10
Chow(70%)   2.70   0.70   0.00
Joint      30.10  18.00   6.90

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 38:09.81
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MBUc(delta=0.2, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.0951
Potency (%)                   33.0952
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)              6.9500
Insignificant (avg no)         2.4680
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.6020
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2850
ESE final model                1.3046
ESE DGP                        0.9987
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       0.3519
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       32.3000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      0.0000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1  I:101  I:102  I:103  I:104  I:124  I:125  I:126  I:127  I:149  I:150  I:151  I:152  I:174  I:175  I:176  I:177  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   23.7   30.1   28.6   24.7   24.7   31.3   31.8   29.0   22.9   29.4   31.3   23.8   24.7   36.4   32.6   31.1   29.1   37.3   36.9   35.6

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    7   30   48   79  113  105  121  106   96   90   66   57   28   13   17    8    6    3    7


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.40   4.90   1.50
ARCH(1)    12.50   9.20   3.80
Normality  36.30  26.20  12.60
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      50.80  36.80  17.10

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      84.70  74.10   1.70
ARCH(1)    23.10  15.10   1.50
Normality  49.50  35.00   1.20
Hetero      4.10   2.10   0.10
Chow(70%)  12.50   5.00   0.00
Joint      94.60  87.20   3.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      69.90  51.10   1.70
ARCH(1)    23.10  14.70   1.70
Normality  46.10  28.20   1.50
Hetero      2.70   1.40   0.10
Chow(70%)  11.00   4.40   0.00
Joint      85.90  66.20   4.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time               1:09:47.78
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MBUc(delta=0.2, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      2.4358
Potency (%)                   56.5714
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)             11.8800
Insignificant (avg no)         2.9520
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    1.6940
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2790
ESE final model                1.3446
ESE DGP                        0.9988
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    1.0000
Gauge (significant only)       0.3444
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       18.1000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      1.6000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1  I:101  I:102  I:103  I:104  I:124  I:125  I:126  I:127  I:149  I:150  I:151  I:152  I:174  I:175  I:176  I:177  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   47.2   52.8   54.2   52.9   50.1   55.5   56.2   55.9   47.8   51.1   55.1   50.7   48.4   56.3   58.4   56.9   51.6   62.1   62.7   62.1

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   21   10    4    3   11   23   26   30   48   52   79   89   82   78   87   77   56   49  175


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   4.90   1.50
ARCH(1)    12.50   9.40   3.80
Normality  36.30  26.50  12.90
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      50.90  37.30  17.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      53.80  44.70   5.10
ARCH(1)    23.80  16.30   4.20
Normality  75.10  63.70  14.60
Hetero      2.20   0.70   0.00
Chow(70%)  10.80   6.30   0.00
Joint      86.20  78.40  16.00

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      44.10  33.00   5.10
ARCH(1)    22.60  15.60   4.60
Normality  73.00  57.20  15.30
Hetero      1.30   0.40   0.00
Chow(70%)   8.80   4.30   0.00
Joint      83.90  70.60  17.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 58:30.19
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MBUc(delta=0.2, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.7457
Potency (%)                   64.0762
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)             13.4560
Insignificant (avg no)         1.4270
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    1.0750
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.3390
ESE final model                1.4489
ESE DGP                        0.9989
Final equals DGP (% reps)     10.4000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   22.2000
Gauge (significant only)       0.4185
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        2.8000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     12.5000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1  I:101  I:102  I:103  I:104  I:124  I:125  I:126  I:127  I:149  I:150  I:151  I:152  I:174  I:175  I:176  I:177  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   58.5   60.7   62.4   62.8   59.3   62.2   63.5   63.5   57.9   60.2   62.8   60.7   59.2   62.2   64.6   64.0   61.8   65.3   66.4   67.6

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0  122   56   20   21    5    8    9    5    8   12    7   17   21   27   48   53   44   55  462


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   4.90   1.50
ARCH(1)    12.70   9.40   3.80
Normality  36.50  26.70  12.90
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      51.10  37.50  17.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      44.20  38.60  24.30
ARCH(1)    34.10  30.10  24.40
Normality  72.10  66.50  47.00
Hetero      6.50   4.10   0.00
Chow(70%)  14.40   7.70   0.00
Joint      78.30  71.70  48.50

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      40.50  34.70  24.30
ARCH(1)    33.30  29.80  24.40
Normality  71.70  64.80  47.40
Hetero      6.00   3.70   0.00
Chow(70%)  13.00   7.00   0.00
Joint      77.70  70.00  48.90

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  6:50.92
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** IUc(delta=0.2, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=100 #sig=2 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.6200
Potency (%)                   83.5000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        2.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    100.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.6700
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1430
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1350
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.4850
ESE final model                0.9452
ESE DGP                        0.9979
Final equals DGP (% reps)     18.4000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   67.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.4850
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.7000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     40.3000
Both dominated at 5%           0.7000


        y_1  I:181
Hits  100.0   67.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0  100  283  247  179   95   47   26    8    5    3    1    2    2    2    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.30   4.90   1.30
ARCH(1)     7.60   3.70   0.50
Normality   9.90   5.10   1.50
Hetero      5.10   2.70   0.60
Chow(70%)   8.80   3.40   1.00
Joint      33.70  17.90   4.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.50   5.20   0.40
ARCH(1)     9.20   4.30   0.20
Normality   2.70   0.70   0.00
Hetero      2.50   1.10   0.30
Chow(70%)   6.30   1.90   0.00
Joint      26.20  12.60   0.90

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.60   4.40   0.00
ARCH(1)     9.70   4.80   0.10
Normality   3.10   0.90   0.00
Hetero      0.30   0.10   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.20   1.70   0.00
Joint      24.80  11.70   0.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  6:57.27
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** IUc(delta=0.2, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=100 #sig=2 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.6240
Potency (%)                   95.6000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        2.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    100.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.9120
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1590
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1570
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.4670
ESE final model                0.9425
ESE DGP                        0.9982
Final equals DGP (% reps)     25.4000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   91.2000
Gauge (significant only)       1.4670
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.4000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     44.9000
Both dominated at 5%           0.3000


        y_1  I:181
Hits  100.0   91.2

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   31  278  266  201  114   61   24   10    4    4    2    2    1    2    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.50   4.90   1.30
ARCH(1)     7.50   3.90   0.40
Normality  10.00   5.20   1.50
Hetero      5.10   3.00   0.60
Chow(70%)   8.90   3.30   1.10
Joint      33.80  18.30   4.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.40   4.60   0.50
ARCH(1)     7.70   3.90   0.20
Normality   2.70   0.40   0.00
Hetero      2.10   1.20   0.30
Chow(70%)   5.40   1.70   0.00
Joint      23.80  11.20   1.00

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.30   4.30   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.80   4.00   0.10
Normality   2.80   0.40   0.00
Hetero      0.10   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.40   1.50   0.00
Joint      22.60  10.10   0.20

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  7:05.38
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** IUc(delta=0.2, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=100 #sig=2 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.6330
Potency (%)                   99.7000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        2.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables    100.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)              1.9940
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1630
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1630
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.4700
ESE final model                0.9408
ESE DGP                        0.9984
Final equals DGP (% reps)     27.7000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   99.4000
Gauge (significant only)       1.4700
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     45.8000
Both dominated at 5%           0.2000


        y_1  I:181
Hits  100.0   99.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    2  279  282  206  114   65   22   13    6    5    2    1    1    2    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.50   4.70   1.40
ARCH(1)     7.50   3.90   0.40
Normality  10.20   5.30   1.50
Hetero      5.20   2.80   0.60
Chow(70%)   9.10   3.30   1.10
Joint      34.10  18.00   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.50   4.50   0.40
ARCH(1)     7.60   3.60   0.40
Normality   3.00   0.80   0.00
Hetero      2.30   1.40   0.30
Chow(70%)   4.40   1.30   0.00
Joint      24.20  11.10   1.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   4.50   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.50   4.00   0.10
Normality   3.30   0.80   0.00
Hetero      0.10   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.60   1.20   0.00
Joint      22.60  10.40   0.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  7:25.05
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BUc(delta=0.2, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.0469
Potency (%)                   23.8381
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)              5.0060
Insignificant (avg no)         1.3770
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1710
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.6770
ESE final model                1.0712
ESE DGP                        0.9949
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.6000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    2.6000
Gauge (significant only)       0.8358
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       26.9000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      3.0000
Both dominated at 5%           0.3000


        y_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   48.3   47.0   38.1   33.1   32.6   26.5   23.5   19.2   17.6   15.0   14.3   11.3   10.6    9.9   10.3    8.4    8.5    8.5    8.8    9.1

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   42  100  172  184  137  113   65   41   24   19   16   14    6    1    4    3    5    0   54


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   5.00   1.20
ARCH(1)    16.10  10.40   4.50
Normality  37.10  26.00  11.40
Hetero      0.10   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      54.30  38.70  16.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      31.40  21.60   0.30
ARCH(1)     8.40   3.60   0.00
Normality   3.90   1.40   0.10
Hetero      7.90   3.90   0.00
Chow(70%)  65.40  50.00   0.10
Joint      77.60  62.90   0.50

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      25.70  14.70   0.10
ARCH(1)     7.40   3.10   0.20
Normality   4.10   1.40   0.10
Hetero      6.10   2.70   0.00
Chow(70%)  46.00  31.80   0.10
Joint      60.80  42.10   0.50

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  6:34.29
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BUc(delta=0.2, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.0630
Potency (%)                   60.9714
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)             12.8040
Insignificant (avg no)         3.0440
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1470
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.7140
ESE final model                1.0346
ESE DGP                        0.9949
Final equals DGP (% reps)      7.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   22.3000
Gauge (significant only)       0.8815
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       20.9000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     14.3000
Both dominated at 5%           1.3000


        y_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   80.0   81.5   76.3   73.7   70.1   66.2   62.4   61.7   56.2   53.9   52.8   51.1   50.2   50.3   50.2   48.6   47.7   48.4   49.8   49.3

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    2   16   44   58   81   65   59   59   47   21   23   12   13    9    6    6   13   21  445


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   5.00   1.20
ARCH(1)    16.10  10.40   4.50
Normality  37.10  26.00  11.40
Hetero      0.10   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      54.30  38.70  16.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      20.90  14.40   0.50
ARCH(1)    11.20   4.10   0.70
Normality   6.40   2.60   0.20
Hetero      5.50   3.00   0.10
Chow(70%)  29.80  22.00   0.00
Joint      50.90  35.40   1.40

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      15.80   9.70   0.00
ARCH(1)    10.20   4.80   0.30
Normality   7.60   2.80   0.00
Hetero      3.90   2.00   0.10
Chow(70%)  20.40  15.60   0.00
Joint      41.60  27.10   0.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  5:59.79
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** BUc(delta=0.2, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.2494
Potency (%)                   90.5714
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)             19.0200
Insignificant (avg no)         2.1880
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1300
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.8820
ESE final model                0.9677
ESE DGP                        0.9949
Final equals DGP (% reps)     29.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   76.3000
Gauge (significant only)       1.0889
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        8.7000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     37.0000
Both dominated at 5%           2.2000


        y_1  I:181  I:182  I:183  I:184  I:185  I:186  I:187  I:188  I:189  I:190  I:191  I:192  I:193  I:194  I:195  I:196  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   98.5   98.2   96.5   97.1   95.4   93.7   92.9   91.1   89.9   88.7   88.1   87.0   86.4   86.0   85.4   85.5   85.9   84.8   85.1   85.8

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    5   10   10   17   14   21   24   11   13   11    5    4    3    4    1  847


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   5.00   1.20
ARCH(1)    16.10  10.40   4.50
Normality  37.10  26.00  11.40
Hetero      0.10   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.00   0.00   0.00
Joint      54.30  38.70  16.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.00   6.10   0.20
ARCH(1)    14.50   8.10   1.30
Normality   9.90   4.60   0.40
Hetero      1.20   0.70   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.90   2.90   0.00
Joint      34.90  19.60   1.80

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.20   4.50   0.10
ARCH(1)    14.50   7.60   0.20
Normality   9.60   4.10   0.30
Hetero      0.70   0.60   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.60   2.30   0.00
Joint      33.30  16.70   0.60

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  8:15.03
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MIUc(delta=0.2, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=96 #sig=6 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.3990
Potency (%)                   66.4500
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        6.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     96.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.9870
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1830
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1010
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.2420
ESE final model                0.9826
ESE DGP                        0.9991
Final equals DGP (% reps)      2.7000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   13.1000
Gauge (significant only)       1.2938
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        1.1000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     18.9000
Both dominated at 5%           0.9000


        y_1  I:101  I:124  I:149  I:174  I:197
Hits  100.0   59.7   63.5   56.8   60.2   58.5

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   19   57  132  171  192  173   95   74   48   21    9    3    3    0    2    1    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   4.70   1.80
ARCH(1)     7.20   3.70   0.70
Normality  11.90   6.80   2.20
Hetero      1.00   0.60   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.70   2.10   0.50
Joint      29.70  16.40   5.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.40   4.80   0.40
ARCH(1)     7.90   4.00   0.10
Normality   3.40   1.10   0.10
Hetero      2.50   1.10   0.10
Chow(70%)   6.80   2.80   0.10
Joint      25.90  12.80   0.80

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.20   4.30   0.00
ARCH(1)     8.00   4.00   0.00
Normality   3.80   1.30   0.00
Hetero      0.90   0.30   0.00
Chow(70%)   5.90   2.00   0.00
Joint      24.60  11.40   0.00

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 10:07.06
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MIUc(delta=0.2, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=96 #sig=6 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.4510
Potency (%)                   89.9667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        6.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     96.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)              5.3980
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1550
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1190
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.2740
ESE final model                0.9630
ESE DGP                        0.9995
Final equals DGP (% reps)     16.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   58.8000
Gauge (significant only)       1.3271
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.8000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     33.6000
Both dominated at 5%           0.5000


        y_1  I:101  I:124  I:149  I:174  I:197
Hits  100.0   88.6   89.0   84.3   89.7   88.2

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    1    4   23   51  136  253  236  144   81   36   19    7    6    1    0    1    1    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.00   4.70   1.80
ARCH(1)     7.20   3.60   0.70
Normality  11.70   6.90   2.10
Hetero      1.00   0.90   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.70   2.10   0.50
Joint      29.40  16.60   4.90

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.90   4.70   0.40
ARCH(1)     8.10   3.90   0.10
Normality   5.90   3.30   1.10
Hetero      0.90   0.30   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.40   1.10   0.00
Joint      25.00  12.50   1.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.50   4.20   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.10   4.00   0.20
Normality   6.00   3.30   0.80
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   3.50   1.00   0.00
Joint      24.50  11.90   1.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 12:25.11
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MIUc(delta=0.2, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=96 #sig=6 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.4313
Potency (%)                   98.5667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables        6.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     96.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)              5.9140
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1280
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1240
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.2500
ESE final model                0.9509
ESE DGP                        0.9997
Final equals DGP (% reps)     29.3000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   92.2000
Gauge (significant only)       1.3021
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.5000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     39.4000
Both dominated at 5%           0.4000


        y_1  I:101  I:124  I:149  I:174  I:197
Hits  100.0   98.1   98.5   97.2   98.5   99.1

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    2    3   29  321  282  185  103   37   26    5    3    1    1    0    2    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.30   4.80   1.80
ARCH(1)     7.10   3.60   0.70
Normality  11.60   6.90   2.00
Hetero      1.10   0.50   0.00
Chow(70%)   4.40   2.20   0.40
Joint      29.30  16.40   4.80

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.10   5.50   0.40
ARCH(1)     7.70   4.40   0.30
Normality   3.20   1.60   0.40
Hetero      0.90   0.20   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.40   0.90   0.00
Joint      22.00  11.90   1.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.70   4.90   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.60   4.30   0.00
Normality   3.70   1.40   0.30
Hetero      0.30   0.20   0.00
Chow(70%)   2.70   0.90   0.00
Joint      23.10  11.30   0.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 14:48.60
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MBUc(delta=0.2, gamma=3, USE_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      0.6642
Potency (%)                   37.6952
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)              7.9160
Insignificant (avg no)         2.1430
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2310
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.3070
ESE final model                1.2654
ESE DGP                        0.9987
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       0.3790
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       32.6000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      0.1000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1  I:101  I:102  I:103  I:104  I:124  I:125  I:126  I:127  I:149  I:150  I:151  I:152  I:174  I:175  I:176  I:177  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   31.8   37.2   35.1   33.0   33.8   38.6   38.7   36.9   29.5   31.9   35.5   30.1   24.8   39.9   36.5   33.8   32.6   38.3   36.9   36.7

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    4   22   48   61   85  106  119  103   97   86   64   65   47   27   26   15   10    5   10


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.40   4.90   1.50
ARCH(1)    12.50   9.20   3.80
Normality  36.30  26.20  12.60
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      50.80  36.80  17.10

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      72.90  59.10   2.90
ARCH(1)    19.00  10.70   0.90
Normality  42.50  29.20   4.40
Hetero      4.40   1.70   0.20
Chow(70%)  12.00   4.50   0.20
Joint      87.30  75.00   8.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      59.50  43.10   0.80
ARCH(1)    17.70  10.60   0.70
Normality  41.90  26.60   1.10
Hetero      0.30   0.10   0.10
Chow(70%)   6.30   2.30   0.00
Joint      78.60  61.30   2.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 22:35.03
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MBUc(delta=0.2, gamma=4, USE_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      0.9086
Potency (%)                   70.5952
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)             14.8250
Insignificant (avg no)         1.2140
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.3450
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.3910
ESE final model                1.1938
ESE DGP                        0.9988
Final equals DGP (% reps)      2.7000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    6.4000
Gauge (significant only)       0.4827
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       10.1000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%      3.4000
Both dominated at 5%           0.0000


        y_1  I:101  I:102  I:103  I:104  I:124  I:125  I:126  I:127  I:149  I:150  I:151  I:152  I:174  I:175  I:176  I:177  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   67.1   70.1   71.1   71.2   69.2   72.3   71.6   71.1   65.9   66.1   67.9   67.1   59.2   71.2   71.7   71.0   65.6   72.2   71.0   69.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    3    0    0    2    8   15   19   28   43   25   52   52   82   67   77   64   79   85  299


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   4.90   1.50
ARCH(1)    12.50   9.40   3.80
Normality  36.30  26.50  12.90
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      50.90  37.30  17.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      30.10  23.00   1.70
ARCH(1)    13.20   6.30   0.50
Normality  54.30  41.00  11.80
Hetero      1.00   0.50   0.20
Chow(70%)   6.30   2.90   0.10
Joint      67.00  53.00  13.50

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      26.70  18.60   0.80
ARCH(1)    11.40   5.80   0.30
Normality  53.50  39.50   9.10
Hetero      0.50   0.30   0.10
Chow(70%)   4.90   2.40   0.00
Joint      65.20  49.00   9.70

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcFiml package version 1.02, object created on 23-07-2014

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                 21:44.61
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5g  block effort                1

*** MBUc(delta=0.2, gamma=5, USE_CONSTANT_U, DGUM)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=81 #sig=21 cp=103 cp_orig=103

Gauge (%)                      1.0259
Potency (%)                   93.6143
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       21.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     81.0000
GUM: no of variables         103.0000
Relevant (avg no)             19.6590
Insignificant (avg no)         0.3030
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2050
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.6260
ESE final model                1.0371
ESE DGP                        0.9989
Final equals DGP (% reps)     25.6000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   57.5000
Gauge (significant only)       0.7728
F+DGP dominates F at 5%        0.5000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     16.5000
Both dominated at 5%           0.1000


        y_1  I:101  I:102  I:103  I:104  I:124  I:125  I:126  I:127  I:149  I:150  I:151  I:152  I:174  I:175  I:176  I:177  I:197  I:198  I:199  I:200
Hits  100.0   92.2   92.3   94.4   93.8   91.6   93.6   94.3   93.0   93.3   92.5   93.2   93.1   90.4   93.7   95.4   93.5   93.0   95.1   92.9   94.6

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    1    1    0    1    0    0    0    4    1    1    4    7    5    9   19   26   38   44  839


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   4.90   1.50
ARCH(1)    12.70   9.40   3.80
Normality  36.50  26.70  12.90
Hetero      0.00   0.00   0.00
Chow(70%)   0.40   0.20   0.00
Joint      51.10  37.50  17.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      12.60   7.50   0.80
ARCH(1)    11.00   6.60   0.90
Normality  34.20  26.50  12.40
Hetero      0.20   0.20   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.70   0.70   0.10
Joint      49.00  36.50  13.50

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      12.20   6.30   0.30
ARCH(1)     9.80   5.50   0.40
Normality  34.00  26.40  13.00
Hetero      0.10   0.10   0.00
Chow(70%)   1.40   0.50   0.00
Joint      47.30  34.40  13.00

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
