--------------- Ox -rp1 at 21:31:47 on 16-Jul-2014 ---------------

Ox Professional version 7.04 (OS_X_64/U/MT) (C) J.A. Doornik, 1994-2014


##### rho=0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    49.87
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=2.4, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=12 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      2.3800
Potency (%)                   45.9583
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              5.5150
Insignificant (avg no)         0.5050
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0760
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1620
ESE final model                1.0530
ESE DGP                        0.9951
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.6200
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       81.3000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     17.7000
Both dominated at 5%          13.4000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits   95.2   38.6   32.8   39.6   30.2   40.3   33.2   36.1   33.7   39.4   32.4  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   17   82  149  226  207  156   83   56   20    3    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.10   3.90   0.30
ARCH(1)     8.30   4.00   1.20
Normality   9.50   4.80   0.80
Hetero     10.40   5.80   0.90
Chow(70%)  10.10   5.70   1.00
Joint      40.00  22.10   4.10

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      21.50  11.30   0.00
ARCH(1)     7.50   3.00   0.10
Normality   8.70   3.60   0.00
Hetero      9.60   4.70   0.00
Chow(70%)   8.70   4.30   0.00
Joint      44.60  24.10   0.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.40   5.00   0.40
ARCH(1)     8.20   3.90   1.00
Normality   8.70   4.20   0.90
Hetero      9.50   5.50   0.80
Chow(70%)  10.90   5.30   0.90
Joint      40.20  21.90   3.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    46.74
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=3.2, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=12 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      2.6800
Potency (%)                   64.9667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              7.7960
Insignificant (avg no)         0.5290
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0770
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1910
ESE final model                1.0469
ESE DGP                        0.9951
Final equals DGP (% reps)      1.3000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    1.8000
Gauge (significant only)       1.9100
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       83.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     19.0000
Both dominated at 5%          15.3000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits   94.7   62.3   54.2   62.0   50.8   67.2   54.0   61.6   55.0   64.7   53.1  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    8   18   54  127  177  209  188  123   61   25    8    2    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.70   3.80   0.20
ARCH(1)     8.20   4.00   1.20
Normality   9.70   4.90   0.90
Hetero     10.30   5.40   1.00
Chow(70%)  10.00   5.80   1.00
Joint      39.70  21.90   4.10

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      26.70  15.90   0.10
ARCH(1)     6.70   2.90   0.10
Normality   9.40   5.20   0.20
Hetero      9.60   4.30   0.00
Chow(70%)   9.80   4.30   0.00
Joint      50.90  29.10   0.40

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.10   3.70   0.50
ARCH(1)     8.40   4.00   1.10
Normality   8.90   4.30   0.90
Hetero      9.30   4.90   0.80
Chow(70%)  10.90   5.50   1.00
Joint      39.00  20.60   4.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    38.52
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=4, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=12 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      2.2200
Potency (%)                   82.6000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              9.9120
Insignificant (avg no)         0.3280
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0560
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1660
ESE final model                1.0252
ESE DGP                        0.9951
Final equals DGP (% reps)     18.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   21.1000
Gauge (significant only)       1.6600
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       65.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     16.7000
Both dominated at 5%          11.6000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits   95.7   84.7   75.9   84.5   71.2   85.6   74.7   82.4   75.9   86.3   74.3  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    3    8   12   52  102  167  189  208  226   26    6    1    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.60   3.50   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.00   4.00   1.20
Normality   9.70   5.00   0.90
Hetero     10.20   5.30   0.90
Chow(70%)   9.90   5.50   1.00
Joint      39.00  21.30   3.90

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      24.40  14.90   0.00
ARCH(1)     7.50   3.40   0.10
Normality   8.20   4.90   0.30
Hetero      9.60   5.10   0.00
Chow(70%)  10.20   5.50   0.10
Joint      48.50  29.50   0.50

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.90   3.30   0.50
ARCH(1)     8.60   4.00   1.10
Normality   8.70   4.30   0.90
Hetero      9.40   4.90   0.80
Chow(70%)  10.60   5.50   1.00
Joint      38.90  20.10   4.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    51.31
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=2.4, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=12 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      2.8100
Potency (%)                   46.8667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              5.6240
Insignificant (avg no)         0.4160
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0770
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2040
ESE final model                1.0562
ESE DGP                        0.9965
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       2.0400
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       87.4000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     17.6000
Both dominated at 5%          15.3000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits  100.0   38.9   38.2   37.4   38.1   38.3   38.8   37.6   33.7   39.8   38.2   83.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   15   66  133  204  225  192  100   32   21   11    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.20   5.00   1.30
ARCH(1)     7.10   3.00   1.00
Normality  11.10   6.30   1.90
Hetero      9.90   5.70   1.50
Chow(70%)  10.60   5.30   1.40
Joint      41.00  23.10   6.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      13.10   7.70   0.30
ARCH(1)     6.40   2.60   0.00
Normality   9.40   5.30   0.30
Hetero      9.00   4.50   0.10
Chow(70%)   9.10   4.60   0.20
Joint      39.40  22.80   0.90

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.90   5.20   1.00
ARCH(1)     6.50   3.70   0.70
Normality   9.40   5.00   1.50
Hetero      8.60   4.70   1.30
Chow(70%)  10.80   5.70   1.00
Joint      38.60  22.30   5.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    43.67
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=3.2, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=12 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      2.6200
Potency (%)                   67.6833
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              8.1220
Insignificant (avg no)         0.4310
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0630
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1990
ESE final model                1.0475
ESE DGP                        0.9965
Final equals DGP (% reps)      2.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    2.3000
Gauge (significant only)       1.9900
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       84.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     17.7000
Both dominated at 5%          15.4000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits  100.0   64.3   62.1   62.5   63.3   62.4   64.6   61.5   61.4   63.4   62.7   84.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    1    9   43   97  157  213  220  136   88   33    2    0    1    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.20   5.00   1.30
ARCH(1)     7.10   3.00   1.00
Normality  11.10   6.30   1.90
Hetero     10.00   5.70   1.50
Chow(70%)  10.60   5.30   1.40
Joint      41.10  23.10   6.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      13.10   6.20   0.30
ARCH(1)     8.30   2.80   0.00
Normality   9.60   5.00   0.10
Hetero     10.80   5.50   0.10
Chow(70%)   9.20   5.10   0.20
Joint      41.70  22.50   0.70

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.90   5.10   1.00
ARCH(1)     6.40   3.50   0.80
Normality   9.50   5.00   1.50
Hetero      8.80   5.00   1.50
Chow(70%)  10.90   5.80   1.10
Joint      38.50  22.30   5.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    34.83
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=4, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=12 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      1.9300
Potency (%)                   84.9167
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)             10.1900
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1990
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0560
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1370
ESE final model                1.0254
ESE DGP                        0.9965
Final equals DGP (% reps)     19.4000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   22.2000
Gauge (significant only)       1.3700
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       62.5000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     13.1000
Both dominated at 5%           8.8000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits  100.0   83.8   82.4   84.4   85.1   81.9   84.0   83.5   83.4   83.4   84.3   82.8

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    2   12   28   77  150  217  246  232   30    3    1    2    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.20   5.00   1.30
ARCH(1)     7.10   3.00   1.00
Normality  11.10   6.30   1.90
Hetero     10.00   5.70   1.50
Chow(70%)  10.60   5.30   1.40
Joint      41.10  23.10   6.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.50   5.40   0.40
ARCH(1)     7.90   2.80   0.20
Normality  10.10   5.10   0.40
Hetero      9.30   5.20   0.00
Chow(70%)  12.10   5.70   0.40
Joint      40.80  21.90   1.40

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.80   5.00   1.00
ARCH(1)     6.40   3.50   0.80
Normality   9.50   5.00   1.50
Hetero      8.80   5.00   1.50
Chow(70%)  10.90   5.80   1.10
Joint      38.40  22.20   5.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    58.05
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=2.4, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=11 #sig=12 cp=23 cp_orig=23

Gauge (%)                      4.7545
Potency (%)                   42.8500
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     11.0000
GUM: no of variables          23.0000
Relevant (avg no)              5.1420
Insignificant (avg no)         0.4680
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0760
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.4470
ESE final model                1.0381
ESE DGP                        0.9924
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       4.0636
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       83.3000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     37.1000
Both dominated at 5%          29.2000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits  100.0   41.5   35.5   40.4   35.3   40.6   35.5   40.3   32.8   40.3   35.2   36.8

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    4   34   83  135  216  226  156   75   46   16    6    3    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   5.40   0.90
ARCH(1)     7.40   2.90   0.90
Normality  11.10   5.80   1.60
Hetero      9.50   5.80   1.60
Chow(70%)  10.90   6.50   1.70
Joint      41.00  23.80   6.30

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.40   6.50   0.10
ARCH(1)     6.50   3.20   0.10
Normality   9.50   5.10   0.10
Hetero     10.30   5.30   0.10
Chow(70%)  10.80   5.50   0.40
Joint      39.60  22.70   0.80

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.60   5.00   0.80
ARCH(1)     6.30   2.60   0.70
Normality   9.30   5.20   1.40
Hetero      8.80   4.30   1.20
Chow(70%)  13.40   7.40   1.40
Joint      39.60  22.00   5.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    53.42
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=3.2, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=11 #sig=12 cp=23 cp_orig=23

Gauge (%)                      4.8091
Potency (%)                   62.7417
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     11.0000
GUM: no of variables          23.0000
Relevant (avg no)              7.5290
Insignificant (avg no)         0.4290
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0880
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.4410
ESE final model                1.0306
ESE DGP                        0.9924
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.3000
Gauge (significant only)       4.0091
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       79.7000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     37.6000
Both dominated at 5%          30.5000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits  100.0   67.0   56.8   65.1   59.8   65.0   60.5   63.7   55.7   64.5   59.1   35.7

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    1    2   18   61  104  192  213  196  138   58   11    2    2    1    0    0    1    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   5.40   0.90
ARCH(1)     7.40   2.90   0.90
Normality  11.10   5.80   1.60
Hetero      9.40   5.80   1.60
Chow(70%)  10.90   6.50   1.70
Joint      41.00  23.80   6.30

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.80   5.40   0.00
ARCH(1)     7.10   3.00   0.10
Normality  10.10   5.40   0.10
Hetero     10.20   5.50   0.10
Chow(70%)  11.00   6.00   0.30
Joint      42.20  23.30   0.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.90   5.00   0.80
ARCH(1)     5.80   2.50   0.70
Normality   9.40   5.30   1.70
Hetero      8.60   4.20   1.50
Chow(70%)  13.00   7.30   1.50
Joint      38.80  22.00   6.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    43.34
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=4, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=11 #sig=12 cp=23 cp_orig=23

Gauge (%)                      4.0818
Potency (%)                   79.4583
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     11.0000
GUM: no of variables          23.0000
Relevant (avg no)              9.5350
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2360
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0760
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.3730
ESE final model                1.0112
ESE DGP                        0.9924
Final equals DGP (% reps)      1.6000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    2.8000
Gauge (significant only)       3.3909
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       60.9000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     33.2000
Both dominated at 5%          22.8000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits  100.0   85.1   78.3   84.9   81.2   83.1   81.3   84.3   79.2   84.7   80.8   30.6

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    6    6   42  118  170  258  279   89   21    6    4    1    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   5.40   0.90
ARCH(1)     7.40   2.90   0.90
Normality  11.10   5.80   1.60
Hetero      9.20   5.70   1.70
Chow(70%)  10.90   6.50   1.70
Joint      41.00  23.70   6.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.30   5.80   0.10
ARCH(1)     6.20   2.60   0.10
Normality   9.80   5.30   0.40
Hetero      8.60   5.30   0.10
Chow(70%)  11.40   5.90   0.40
Joint      39.70  22.30   1.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.70   4.80   0.80
ARCH(1)     5.80   2.50   0.70
Normality   9.30   5.30   1.70
Hetero      8.80   4.20   1.50
Chow(70%)  13.10   7.30   1.50
Joint      38.70  21.80   6.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    48.88
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=2.4, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=11 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      2.3800
Potency (%)                   41.0455
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              4.5150
Insignificant (avg no)         0.5050
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0760
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1620
ESE final model                1.0530
ESE DGP                        0.9951
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       1.6200
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       81.3000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     17.7000
Both dominated at 5%          13.4000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits   95.2   38.6   32.8   39.6   30.2   40.3   33.2   36.1   33.7   39.4   32.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   17   82  149  226  207  156   83   56   20    3    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.10   3.90   0.30
ARCH(1)     8.30   4.00   1.20
Normality   9.50   4.80   0.80
Hetero     10.40   5.80   0.90
Chow(70%)  10.10   5.70   1.00
Joint      40.00  22.10   4.10

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      21.50  11.30   0.00
ARCH(1)     7.50   3.00   0.10
Normality   8.70   3.60   0.00
Hetero      9.60   4.70   0.00
Chow(70%)   8.70   4.30   0.00
Joint      44.60  24.10   0.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.40   5.00   0.40
ARCH(1)     8.20   3.90   1.00
Normality   8.70   4.20   0.90
Hetero      9.50   5.50   0.80
Chow(70%)  10.90   5.30   0.90
Joint      40.20  21.90   3.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    45.99
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=3.2, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=11 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      2.6800
Potency (%)                   61.7818
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              6.7960
Insignificant (avg no)         0.5290
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0770
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1910
ESE final model                1.0469
ESE DGP                        0.9951
Final equals DGP (% reps)      1.3000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    1.8000
Gauge (significant only)       1.9100
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       83.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     19.0000
Both dominated at 5%          15.3000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits   94.7   62.3   54.2   62.0   50.8   67.2   54.0   61.6   55.0   64.7   53.1

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    8   18   54  127  177  209  188  123   61   25    8    2    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.70   3.80   0.20
ARCH(1)     8.20   4.00   1.20
Normality   9.70   4.90   0.90
Hetero     10.30   5.40   1.00
Chow(70%)  10.00   5.80   1.00
Joint      39.70  21.90   4.10

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      26.70  15.90   0.10
ARCH(1)     6.70   2.90   0.10
Normality   9.40   5.20   0.20
Hetero      9.60   4.30   0.00
Chow(70%)   9.80   4.30   0.00
Joint      50.90  29.10   0.40

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.10   3.70   0.50
ARCH(1)     8.40   4.00   1.10
Normality   8.90   4.30   0.90
Hetero      9.30   4.90   0.80
Chow(70%)  10.90   5.50   1.00
Joint      39.00  20.60   4.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    37.88
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=4, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=11 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      2.2200
Potency (%)                   81.0182
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              8.9120
Insignificant (avg no)         0.3280
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0560
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1660
ESE final model                1.0252
ESE DGP                        0.9951
Final equals DGP (% reps)     18.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   21.1000
Gauge (significant only)       1.6600
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       65.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     16.7000
Both dominated at 5%          11.6000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits   95.7   84.7   75.9   84.5   71.2   85.6   74.7   82.4   75.9   86.3   74.3

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    3    8   12   52  102  167  189  208  226   26    6    1    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       8.60   3.50   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.00   4.00   1.20
Normality   9.70   5.00   0.90
Hetero     10.20   5.30   0.90
Chow(70%)   9.90   5.50   1.00
Joint      39.00  21.30   3.90

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      24.40  14.90   0.00
ARCH(1)     7.50   3.40   0.10
Normality   8.20   4.90   0.30
Hetero      9.60   5.10   0.00
Chow(70%)  10.20   5.50   0.10
Joint      48.50  29.50   0.50

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.90   3.30   0.50
ARCH(1)     8.60   4.00   1.10
Normality   8.70   4.30   0.90
Hetero      9.40   4.90   0.80
Chow(70%)  10.60   5.50   1.00
Joint      38.90  20.10   4.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    48.74
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=2.4, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=11 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      2.7400
Potency (%)                   43.4273
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              4.7770
Insignificant (avg no)         0.3900
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0720
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2020
ESE final model                1.0541
ESE DGP                        0.9965
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       2.0200
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       86.7000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     17.2000
Both dominated at 5%          14.6000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits  100.0   37.8   37.9   37.8   38.4   38.2   38.7   38.0   34.3   39.3   37.3

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    9   52  127  201  223  208  105   37   23   13    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.20   5.00   1.30
ARCH(1)     7.10   3.00   1.00
Normality  11.10   6.30   1.90
Hetero      9.90   5.70   1.50
Chow(70%)  10.60   5.30   1.40
Joint      41.00  23.10   6.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      13.50   8.20   0.30
ARCH(1)     6.30   2.80   0.00
Normality   9.40   5.30   0.30
Hetero      8.50   4.40   0.20
Chow(70%)   8.80   4.30   0.30
Joint      39.00  23.20   1.10

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.90   5.20   1.00
ARCH(1)     6.50   3.70   0.70
Normality   9.40   5.00   1.50
Hetero      8.60   4.70   1.30
Chow(70%)  10.80   5.70   1.00
Joint      38.60  22.30   5.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    41.65
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=3.2, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=11 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      2.5300
Potency (%)                   66.3273
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              7.2960
Insignificant (avg no)         0.3800
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0620
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1910
ESE final model                1.0451
ESE DGP                        0.9965
Final equals DGP (% reps)      2.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    2.6000
Gauge (significant only)       1.9100
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       82.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     17.1000
Both dominated at 5%          14.3000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits  100.0   64.6   62.6   63.0   63.7   62.6   64.4   61.1   61.0   63.6   63.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    1    5   31   91  145  209  231  151   93   37    3    2    1    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.20   5.00   1.30
ARCH(1)     7.10   3.00   1.00
Normality  11.10   6.30   1.90
Hetero     10.00   5.70   1.50
Chow(70%)  10.60   5.30   1.40
Joint      41.10  23.10   6.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      13.20   6.40   0.40
ARCH(1)     8.40   3.00   0.00
Normality  10.10   5.50   0.10
Hetero     11.10   5.60   0.10
Chow(70%)   9.10   4.80   0.30
Joint      42.40  23.30   0.90

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.90   5.10   1.00
ARCH(1)     6.40   3.50   0.80
Normality   9.50   5.00   1.50
Hetero      8.80   5.00   1.50
Chow(70%)  10.90   5.80   1.10
Joint      38.50  22.30   5.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    33.07
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=4, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=11 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      1.9200
Potency (%)                   85.1727
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              9.3690
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1560
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0520
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1400
ESE final model                1.0222
ESE DGP                        0.9965
Final equals DGP (% reps)     21.8000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   25.6000
Gauge (significant only)       1.4000
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       58.9000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     13.0000
Both dominated at 5%           8.2000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits  100.0   84.3   82.6   84.3   85.2   81.8   83.9   83.2   83.2   83.4   85.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    1   10   19   63  132  212  266  252   36    5    1    3    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.20   5.00   1.30
ARCH(1)     7.10   3.00   1.00
Normality  11.10   6.30   1.90
Hetero     10.00   5.70   1.50
Chow(70%)  10.60   5.30   1.40
Joint      41.10  23.10   6.70

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.30   5.50   0.50
ARCH(1)     7.70   3.00   0.20
Normality  10.60   5.10   0.40
Hetero      9.30   5.20   0.10
Chow(70%)  12.00   5.60   0.40
Joint      41.00  22.10   1.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.80   5.00   1.00
ARCH(1)     6.40   3.50   0.80
Normality   9.50   5.00   1.50
Hetero      8.80   5.00   1.50
Chow(70%)  10.90   5.80   1.10
Joint      38.40  22.20   5.80

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    53.65
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=2.4, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=11 #sig=11 cp=23 cp_orig=23

Gauge (%)                      5.4818
Potency (%)                   42.0909
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     11.0000
GUM: no of variables          23.0000
Relevant (avg no)              4.6300
Insignificant (avg no)         0.4390
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0960
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.5070
ESE final model                1.0355
ESE DGP                        0.9924
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       4.6091
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       83.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     44.7000
Both dominated at 5%          36.8000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits  100.0   40.9   33.0   40.7   32.8   40.4   34.1   38.6   30.8   39.3   32.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   11   43  108  182  227  217  110   61   25   12    4    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   5.40   0.90
ARCH(1)     7.40   2.90   0.90
Normality  11.10   5.80   1.60
Hetero      9.50   5.80   1.60
Chow(70%)  10.90   6.50   1.70
Joint      41.00  23.80   6.30

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      12.10   6.10   0.10
ARCH(1)     5.70   2.90   0.10
Normality  10.20   5.30   0.00
Hetero      9.90   4.70   0.10
Chow(70%)  11.10   5.80   0.40
Joint      41.10  22.90   0.70

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.60   5.00   0.80
ARCH(1)     6.30   2.60   0.70
Normality   9.30   5.20   1.40
Hetero      8.80   4.30   1.20
Chow(70%)  13.40   7.40   1.40
Joint      39.60  22.00   5.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    49.41
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=3.2, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=11 #sig=11 cp=23 cp_orig=23

Gauge (%)                      5.5545
Potency (%)                   63.6455
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     11.0000
GUM: no of variables          23.0000
Relevant (avg no)              7.0010
Insignificant (avg no)         0.4030
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0960
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.5150
ESE final model                1.0285
ESE DGP                        0.9924
Final equals DGP (% reps)      1.7000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    2.2000
Gauge (significant only)       4.6818
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       82.1000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     43.8000
Both dominated at 5%          36.5000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits  100.0   66.3   54.4   64.1   54.9   64.7   58.2   63.8   53.2   64.7   55.8

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    4   34   71  163  206  213  173   90   35    6    3    0    1    0    1    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   5.40   0.90
ARCH(1)     7.40   2.90   0.90
Normality  11.10   5.80   1.60
Hetero      9.40   5.80   1.60
Chow(70%)  10.90   6.50   1.70
Joint      41.00  23.80   6.30

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      12.70   6.00   0.00
ARCH(1)     7.60   3.10   0.00
Normality  10.00   4.90   0.20
Hetero     10.40   5.10   0.10
Chow(70%)  12.30   6.60   0.30
Joint      44.60  23.70   0.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.90   5.00   0.80
ARCH(1)     5.80   2.50   0.70
Normality   9.40   5.30   1.70
Hetero      8.60   4.20   1.50
Chow(70%)  13.00   7.30   1.50
Joint      38.80  22.00   6.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    40.30
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=4, rho=0, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=11 #sig=11 cp=23 cp_orig=23

Gauge (%)                      4.7636
Potency (%)                   83.0455
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     11.0000
GUM: no of variables          23.0000
Relevant (avg no)              9.1350
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2240
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0810
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.4430
ESE final model                1.0073
ESE DGP                        0.9924
Final equals DGP (% reps)     15.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   20.0000
Gauge (significant only)       4.0273
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       61.9000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     39.6000
Both dominated at 5%          27.5000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits  100.0   85.3   75.6   84.7   78.0   84.4   79.6   85.8   75.9   84.8   79.4

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    0    0    3   17   75  126  187  285  234   56   11    3    3    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      10.50   5.40   0.90
ARCH(1)     7.40   2.90   0.90
Normality  11.10   5.80   1.60
Hetero      9.20   5.70   1.70
Chow(70%)  10.90   6.50   1.70
Joint      41.00  23.70   6.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      12.60   6.90   0.20
ARCH(1)     6.60   2.90   0.20
Normality  10.20   4.60   0.60
Hetero      8.90   4.80   0.10
Chow(70%)  12.00   6.50   0.40
Joint      41.80  23.20   1.50

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)       9.70   4.80   0.80
ARCH(1)     5.80   2.50   0.70
Normality   9.30   5.30   1.70
Hetero      8.80   4.20   1.50
Chow(70%)  13.10   7.30   1.50
Joint      38.70  21.80   6.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0


##### rho=0.9
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    52.17
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=2.4, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=12 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      3.9200
Potency (%)                   40.0417
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              4.8050
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2280
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0550
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.3370
ESE final model                1.0360
ESE DGP                        0.9925
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       3.3700
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       67.8000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     21.9000
Both dominated at 5%          13.7000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits   94.5   29.6   26.9   30.0   26.4   32.4   28.6   29.4   27.2   29.4   26.1  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    1  133   49  274  112  171   97   93   35   25    7    3    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.40   6.40   1.70
ARCH(1)     8.20   3.90   1.10
Normality  10.20   4.40   1.10
Hetero     11.10   5.40   0.80
Chow(70%)  11.80   6.70   1.60
Joint      41.50  22.70   5.90

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      14.70   6.80   0.10
ARCH(1)     7.40   4.20   0.30
Normality  10.30   4.50   0.10
Hetero      9.60   4.40   0.00
Chow(70%)  10.40   5.20   0.10
Joint      41.60  21.70   0.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      18.40  10.60   2.60
ARCH(1)     7.80   4.20   1.00
Normality  10.70   4.90   1.40
Hetero     11.40   6.20   1.10
Chow(70%)  14.40   8.20   1.50
Joint      49.40  29.30   7.20

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    47.67
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=3.2, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=12 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      4.1300
Potency (%)                   59.5250
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              7.1430
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2740
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0760
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.3370
ESE final model                1.0352
ESE DGP                        0.9929
Final equals DGP (% reps)      2.8000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    3.1000
Gauge (significant only)       3.3700
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       75.4000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     23.6000
Both dominated at 5%          18.0000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits   95.1   53.6   50.6   54.7   49.1   55.4   51.1   51.3   47.7   54.8   50.9  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    1   10   12   96   44  201   95  211  104  144   36   38    5    2    1    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.70   6.20   1.70
ARCH(1)     8.40   4.00   1.10
Normality  10.10   4.30   1.10
Hetero     10.40   4.70   1.00
Chow(70%)  11.80   6.50   1.40
Joint      41.80  21.70   6.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      14.40   7.40   0.30
ARCH(1)     7.90   4.30   0.20
Normality   8.70   4.40   0.20
Hetero     10.10   4.70   0.10
Chow(70%)   9.90   4.50   0.00
Joint      40.70  21.80   0.80

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      19.00  11.10   3.10
ARCH(1)     8.10   4.10   1.10
Normality  10.40   5.10   1.40
Hetero     11.00   6.00   1.30
Chow(70%)  13.70   8.20   1.70
Joint      48.70  29.50   8.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    39.09
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=4, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=12 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      3.4300
Potency (%)                   80.0000
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              9.6000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1710
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0600
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2830
ESE final model                1.0173
ESE DGP                        0.9933
Final equals DGP (% reps)     21.6000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   25.8000
Gauge (significant only)       2.8300
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       58.4000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     20.5000
Both dominated at 5%          13.2000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits   97.2   75.9   74.6   77.6   74.5   79.5   75.2   76.4   74.3   78.7   76.1  100.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    1    0    5    6   57   35  167   75  267   88  249   35   13    2    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      12.50   6.20   1.50
ARCH(1)     8.20   4.30   1.10
Normality  10.00   4.60   0.90
Hetero     10.20   4.80   1.00
Chow(70%)  11.80   6.40   1.50
Joint      41.70  22.20   5.60

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      13.60   8.20   0.70
ARCH(1)     8.10   4.80   0.40
Normality   8.30   4.20   0.20
Hetero     10.60   5.50   0.20
Chow(70%)   9.90   5.20   0.20
Joint      41.90  24.60   1.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      20.00  11.40   3.20
ARCH(1)     9.00   4.20   1.20
Normality  10.50   5.00   1.40
Hetero     10.60   6.30   1.20
Chow(70%)  13.70   7.90   1.60
Joint      49.80  29.50   8.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    52.30
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=2.4, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=12 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      3.3700
Potency (%)                   36.4083
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              4.3690
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1880
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0440
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2930
ESE final model                1.0477
ESE DGP                        0.9971
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       2.9300
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       70.4000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     17.2000
Both dominated at 5%          10.1000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits  100.0   28.8   29.7   26.4   27.2   27.5   26.5   26.1   27.4   29.2   31.2   56.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0   23  159  105  238  123  161   69   80   29   11    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      19.10   9.90   2.70
ARCH(1)     9.00   3.90   0.60
Normality  11.00   6.40   1.80
Hetero     12.00   7.00   2.10
Chow(70%)  11.00   5.80   1.00
Joint      48.70  28.30   8.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.30   5.30   0.20
ARCH(1)     8.40   2.70   0.00
Normality   9.20   4.60   0.00
Hetero     11.00   5.20   0.00
Chow(70%)  11.10   5.20   0.20
Joint      40.20  20.20   0.40

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      35.10  22.80   7.20
ARCH(1)     9.30   4.70   1.50
Normality   8.90   4.60   1.20
Hetero      9.00   4.00   1.20
Chow(70%)  11.50   5.90   1.10
Joint      57.30  36.90  11.60

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                    50.67
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=3.2, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=12 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      3.4900
Potency (%)                   55.9583
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              6.7150
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2080
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0440
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.3050
ESE final model                1.0466
ESE DGP                        0.9971
Final equals DGP (% reps)      1.5000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    1.9000
Gauge (significant only)       3.0500
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       77.7000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     19.0000
Both dominated at 5%          13.7000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits  100.0   52.4   53.4   50.2   49.1   53.7   53.9   49.4   50.3   54.2   55.0   49.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    3   14   22   94   97  197  149  184   89   93   24   29    4    1    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      19.10   9.90   2.70
ARCH(1)     9.00   3.90   0.60
Normality  11.00   6.40   1.80
Hetero     12.00   7.00   2.10
Chow(70%)  11.00   5.80   1.00
Joint      48.70  28.30   8.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      14.90   7.10   0.20
ARCH(1)     7.70   2.90   0.20
Normality   9.10   4.30   0.20
Hetero      8.90   4.80   0.00
Chow(70%)  10.30   4.70   0.30
Joint      39.40  21.00   0.90

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      36.80  23.80   7.70
ARCH(1)     9.20   4.80   1.50
Normality   9.50   4.70   1.20
Hetero      9.10   3.90   1.10
Chow(70%)  11.30   5.90   1.10
Joint      58.60  37.70  12.00

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  1:10.07
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=4, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=12 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      2.9000
Potency (%)                   75.4667
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              9.0560
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1520
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0360
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2540
ESE final model                1.0304
ESE DGP                        0.9971
Final equals DGP (% reps)      9.8000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   11.3000
Gauge (significant only)       2.5400
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       65.1000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     16.3000
Both dominated at 5%          10.5000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits  100.0   76.1   75.8   77.0   76.1   74.9   76.8   75.1   75.1   77.4   76.4   44.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    1    2   11   21   58   84  146  170  201  151  133   20    2    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      19.10   9.90   2.70
ARCH(1)     9.00   3.90   0.60
Normality  11.00   6.40   1.80
Hetero     12.00   7.00   2.10
Chow(70%)  11.00   5.80   1.00
Joint      48.70  28.30   8.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      15.10   8.30   0.40
ARCH(1)     7.80   2.90   0.20
Normality   9.50   4.70   0.20
Hetero     10.70   5.10   0.00
Chow(70%)  10.50   5.80   0.20
Joint      42.80  23.90   1.00

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      36.90  23.80   7.70
ARCH(1)     9.20   4.80   1.50
Normality   9.50   4.70   1.20
Hetero      9.10   3.90   1.10
Chow(70%)  11.30   5.90   1.10
Joint      58.70  37.70  12.00

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  1:21.36
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=2.4, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=11 #sig=12 cp=23 cp_orig=23

Gauge (%)                     10.7636
Potency (%)                   37.5167
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     11.0000
GUM: no of variables          23.0000
Relevant (avg no)              4.5020
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2930
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0970
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.0870
ESE final model                0.9955
ESE DGP                        0.9877
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       9.8818
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       62.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     63.1000
Both dominated at 5%          38.0000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits   99.9   34.8   22.5   34.8   21.6   35.9   21.7   33.7   20.1   37.6   24.7   62.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0   39   37   98  117  190  155  157  104   57   24   17    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      15.50   8.40   1.70
ARCH(1)     8.40   3.60   0.50
Normality  11.20   6.20   1.60
Hetero     12.80   6.60   2.00
Chow(70%)  14.80   9.40   2.00
Joint      48.70  29.10   7.30

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.40   5.10   0.10
ARCH(1)     7.30   2.90   0.00
Normality   8.80   5.10   0.10
Hetero      8.90   4.20   0.20
Chow(70%)  11.60   6.40   0.40
Joint      39.20  20.90   0.80

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      17.90   9.50   2.30
ARCH(1)     7.00   3.20   0.80
Normality   9.60   4.80   1.40
Hetero      8.40   3.80   1.10
Chow(70%)  22.40  15.20   4.20
Joint      50.40  31.50   9.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  1:01.84
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=3.2, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=11 #sig=12 cp=23 cp_orig=23

Gauge (%)                     11.6636
Potency (%)                   55.1250
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     11.0000
GUM: no of variables          23.0000
Relevant (avg no)              6.6150
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2920
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0800
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.2030
ESE final model                0.9927
ESE DGP                        0.9877
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.3000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.6000
Gauge (significant only)      10.9364
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       69.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     67.2000
Both dominated at 5%          46.3000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits   99.9   58.7   40.1   57.6   39.1   59.7   41.2   57.0   39.3   60.5   44.2   64.2

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    1    4   20   36   91   94  190  163  177  100   69   42    6    7    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      15.50   8.40   1.70
ARCH(1)     8.40   3.60   0.50
Normality  11.20   6.20   1.60
Hetero     12.60   6.70   2.10
Chow(70%)  14.80   9.40   2.00
Joint      48.50  29.10   7.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.70   6.10   0.00
ARCH(1)     9.00   3.40   0.00
Normality   9.00   5.20   0.10
Hetero      9.90   4.60   0.00
Chow(70%)  12.80   6.80   0.50
Joint      42.30  22.70   0.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      18.90  10.20   2.80
ARCH(1)     7.20   3.30   0.80
Normality  10.00   5.00   1.40
Hetero      8.00   3.50   0.90
Chow(70%)  21.70  14.60   4.70
Joint      50.90  31.60  10.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  1:26.28
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_X, t=4, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=11 #sig=12 cp=23 cp_orig=23

Gauge (%)                     10.8273
Potency (%)                   71.9833
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       12.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     11.0000
GUM: no of variables          23.0000
Relevant (avg no)              8.6380
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2550
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0910
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.1000
ESE final model                0.9827
ESE DGP                        0.9877
Final equals DGP (% reps)      1.5000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    4.0000
Gauge (significant only)      10.0000
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       61.7000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     63.0000
Both dominated at 5%          41.5000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1Constant
Hits   99.9   80.5   60.0   80.1   59.8   78.8   59.9   79.1   59.9   81.1   63.4   61.3

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    4   22   24   73   96  210  174  219  103   48   24    3    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      15.50   8.40   1.70
ARCH(1)     8.40   3.60   0.50
Normality  11.20   6.20   1.60
Hetero     12.90   6.80   2.00
Chow(70%)  14.80   9.40   2.00
Joint      48.60  29.20   7.30

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      12.60   5.90   0.10
ARCH(1)     7.90   3.90   0.00
Normality   9.20   6.30   0.20
Hetero      9.60   4.60   0.10
Chow(70%)  14.20   8.40   0.40
Joint      43.10  25.70   0.80

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      18.90  10.20   2.80
ARCH(1)     7.10   3.20   0.80
Normality   9.80   4.90   1.40
Hetero      8.10   3.50   0.90
Chow(70%)  21.80  14.30   4.80
Joint      50.80  31.00  10.20

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  1:29.76
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=2.4, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=11 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      3.9200
Potency (%)                   34.5909
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.8050
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2280
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0550
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.3370
ESE final model                1.0360
ESE DGP                        0.9925
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.0000
Gauge (significant only)       3.3700
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       67.8000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     21.9000
Both dominated at 5%          13.7000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits   94.5   29.6   26.9   30.0   26.4   32.4   28.6   29.4   27.2   29.4   26.1

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    1  133   49  274  112  171   97   93   35   25    7    3    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.40   6.40   1.70
ARCH(1)     8.20   3.90   1.10
Normality  10.20   4.40   1.10
Hetero     11.10   5.40   0.80
Chow(70%)  11.80   6.70   1.60
Joint      41.50  22.70   5.90

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      14.70   6.80   0.10
ARCH(1)     7.40   4.20   0.30
Normality  10.30   4.50   0.10
Hetero      9.60   4.40   0.00
Chow(70%)  10.40   5.20   0.10
Joint      41.60  21.70   0.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      18.40  10.60   2.60
ARCH(1)     7.80   4.20   1.00
Normality  10.70   4.90   1.40
Hetero     11.40   6.20   1.10
Chow(70%)  14.40   8.20   1.50
Joint      49.40  29.30   7.20

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  1:23.22
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=3.2, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=11 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      4.1300
Potency (%)                   55.8455
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              6.1430
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2740
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0760
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.3370
ESE final model                1.0352
ESE DGP                        0.9929
Final equals DGP (% reps)      2.8000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    3.1000
Gauge (significant only)       3.3700
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       75.4000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     23.6000
Both dominated at 5%          18.0000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits   95.1   53.6   50.6   54.7   49.1   55.4   51.1   51.3   47.7   54.8   50.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    1   10   12   96   44  201   95  211  104  144   36   38    5    2    1    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.70   6.20   1.70
ARCH(1)     8.40   4.00   1.10
Normality  10.10   4.30   1.10
Hetero     10.40   4.70   1.00
Chow(70%)  11.80   6.50   1.40
Joint      41.80  21.70   6.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      14.40   7.40   0.30
ARCH(1)     7.90   4.30   0.20
Normality   8.70   4.40   0.20
Hetero     10.10   4.70   0.10
Chow(70%)   9.90   4.50   0.00
Joint      40.70  21.80   0.80

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      19.00  11.10   3.10
ARCH(1)     8.10   4.10   1.10
Normality  10.40   5.10   1.40
Hetero     11.00   6.00   1.30
Chow(70%)  13.70   8.20   1.70
Joint      48.70  29.50   8.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  1:07.71
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BLcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=4, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=11 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      3.4300
Potency (%)                   78.1818
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              8.6000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1710
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0600
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2830
ESE final model                1.0173
ESE DGP                        0.9933
Final equals DGP (% reps)     21.6000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   25.8000
Gauge (significant only)       2.8300
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       58.4000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     20.5000
Both dominated at 5%          13.2000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits   97.2   75.9   74.6   77.6   74.5   79.5   75.2   76.4   74.3   78.7   76.1

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    1    0    5    6   57   35  167   75  267   88  249   35   13    2    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      12.50   6.20   1.50
ARCH(1)     8.20   4.30   1.10
Normality  10.00   4.60   0.90
Hetero     10.20   4.80   1.00
Chow(70%)  11.80   6.40   1.50
Joint      41.70  22.20   5.60

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      13.60   8.20   0.70
ARCH(1)     8.10   4.80   0.40
Normality   8.30   4.20   0.20
Hetero     10.60   5.50   0.20
Chow(70%)   9.90   5.20   0.20
Joint      41.90  24.60   1.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      20.00  11.40   3.20
ARCH(1)     9.00   4.20   1.20
Normality  10.50   5.00   1.40
Hetero     10.60   6.30   1.20
Chow(70%)  13.70   7.90   1.60
Joint      49.80  29.50   8.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  1:10.68
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=2.4, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=11 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      2.5200
Potency (%)                   33.2455
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.6570
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1990
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0530
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1990
ESE final model                1.0471
ESE DGP                        0.9971
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.1000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.1000
Gauge (significant only)       1.9900
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       70.3000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     14.0000
Both dominated at 5%           9.3000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits  100.0   28.0   28.8   25.7   24.8   25.1   24.9   24.1   25.1   29.2   30.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0  170   57  286   90  198   60   84   33   17    3    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      19.10   9.90   2.70
ARCH(1)     9.00   3.90   0.60
Normality  11.00   6.40   1.80
Hetero     12.00   7.00   2.10
Chow(70%)  11.00   5.80   1.00
Joint      48.70  28.30   8.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      13.00   6.10   0.60
ARCH(1)     8.00   2.80   0.00
Normality   9.50   4.30   0.00
Hetero     10.20   5.00   0.00
Chow(70%)  10.70   4.80   0.20
Joint      40.50  20.20   0.80

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      35.10  22.80   7.20
ARCH(1)     9.30   4.70   1.50
Normality   8.90   4.60   1.20
Hetero      9.00   4.00   1.20
Chow(70%)  11.50   5.90   1.10
Joint      57.30  36.90  11.60

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  1:09.72
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=3.2, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=11 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      2.7700
Potency (%)                   56.2364
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              6.1860
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2400
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0580
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.2190
ESE final model                1.0435
ESE DGP                        0.9971
Final equals DGP (% reps)      3.4000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    4.2000
Gauge (significant only)       2.1900
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       75.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     17.0000
Both dominated at 5%          13.0000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits  100.0   53.4   53.0   50.8   49.1   52.3   52.3   50.9   51.4   52.5   52.9

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   15    6   93   45  222   96  242   66  142   22   42    8    1    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      19.10   9.90   2.70
ARCH(1)     9.00   3.90   0.60
Normality  11.00   6.40   1.80
Hetero     12.00   7.00   2.10
Chow(70%)  11.00   5.80   1.00
Joint      48.70  28.30   8.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      16.40   8.80   1.00
ARCH(1)     7.30   2.60   0.10
Normality   9.00   4.00   0.30
Hetero      9.80   5.10   0.00
Chow(70%)   9.70   5.00   0.20
Joint      41.00  22.70   1.60

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      36.80  23.80   7.70
ARCH(1)     9.20   4.80   1.50
Normality   9.50   4.70   1.20
Hetero      9.10   3.90   1.10
Chow(70%)  11.30   5.90   1.10
Joint      58.60  37.70  12.00

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  1:02.82
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx(delta=2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=4, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=10 #sig=11 cp=22 cp_orig=22

Gauge (%)                      2.0300
Potency (%)                   78.5545
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     10.0000
GUM: no of variables          22.0000
Relevant (avg no)              8.6410
Insignificant (avg no)         0.1620
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0430
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1600
ESE final model                1.0255
ESE DGP                        0.9971
Final equals DGP (% reps)     23.9000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   27.2000
Gauge (significant only)       1.6000
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       58.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     13.1000
Both dominated at 5%           8.4000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits  100.0   76.0   75.5   77.9   76.8   75.9   77.2   74.6   75.6   77.4   77.2

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    1    1    9   10   59   30  167   80  283   60  263   31    6    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      19.10   9.90   2.70
ARCH(1)     9.00   3.90   0.60
Normality  11.00   6.40   1.80
Hetero     12.00   7.00   2.10
Chow(70%)  11.00   5.80   1.00
Joint      48.70  28.30   8.00

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      17.90   9.10   1.50
ARCH(1)     7.90   3.60   0.30
Normality   9.20   4.60   0.30
Hetero     10.80   5.40   0.00
Chow(70%)  10.10   5.60   0.10
Joint      44.00  25.10   2.20

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      36.90  23.80   7.70
ARCH(1)     9.20   4.80   1.50
Normality   9.50   4.70   1.20
Hetero      9.10   3.90   1.10
Chow(70%)  11.30   5.90   1.10
Joint      58.70  37.70  12.00

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  1:09.45
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=2.4, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=11 #sig=11 cp=23 cp_orig=23

Gauge (%)                     11.2364
Potency (%)                   34.1182
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     11.0000
GUM: no of variables          23.0000
Relevant (avg no)              3.7530
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2840
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1150
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.1210
ESE final model                0.9941
ESE DGP                        0.9877
Final equals DGP (% reps)      0.0000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    0.1000
Gauge (significant only)      10.1909
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       64.2000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     68.3000
Both dominated at 5%          42.8000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits   99.9   34.8   20.3   34.4   19.6   35.5   20.0   32.8   17.8   37.6   22.6

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0   53   60  138  174  188  150  124   54   34   17    6    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      15.50   8.40   1.70
ARCH(1)     8.40   3.60   0.50
Normality  11.20   6.20   1.60
Hetero     12.80   6.60   2.00
Chow(70%)  14.80   9.40   2.00
Joint      48.70  29.10   7.30

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.20   5.40   0.30
ARCH(1)     7.70   3.50   0.00
Normality   8.60   4.50   0.00
Hetero     10.00   4.50   0.20
Chow(70%)  12.70   6.90   0.30
Joint      40.60  21.60   0.80

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      17.90   9.50   2.30
ARCH(1)     7.00   3.20   0.80
Normality   9.60   4.80   1.40
Hetero      8.40   3.80   1.10
Chow(70%)  22.40  15.20   4.20
Joint      50.40  31.50   9.40

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  1:14.30
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=3.2, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=11 #sig=11 cp=23 cp_orig=23

Gauge (%)                     12.2909
Potency (%)                   53.3273
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     11.0000
GUM: no of variables          23.0000
Relevant (avg no)              5.8660
Insignificant (avg no)         0.3090
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.1060
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.2460
ESE final model                0.9911
ESE DGP                        0.9877
Final equals DGP (% reps)      1.2000
Final contains DGP (% reps)    1.7000
Gauge (significant only)      11.3273
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       70.8000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     70.0000
Both dominated at 5%          49.3000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits   99.9   57.8   38.2   58.0   38.2   58.4   38.8   58.0   37.2   60.1   42.0

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    1    9   37   47  125  150  192  159  144   60   58    9    9    0    0    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      15.50   8.40   1.70
ARCH(1)     8.40   3.60   0.50
Normality  11.20   6.20   1.60
Hetero     12.60   6.70   2.10
Chow(70%)  14.80   9.40   2.00
Joint      48.50  29.10   7.40

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.60   5.80   0.00
ARCH(1)     9.10   3.90   0.00
Normality   9.30   5.00   0.10
Hetero     10.20   5.10   0.00
Chow(70%)  13.60   7.80   0.40
Joint      43.00  24.10   0.50

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      18.90  10.20   2.80
ARCH(1)     7.20   3.30   0.80
Normality  10.00   5.00   1.40
Hetero      8.00   3.50   0.90
Chow(70%)  21.70  14.60   4.70
Joint      50.90  31.60  10.10

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
PcGive package version 14.0B3, object created on 16-07-2014
(C) Jurgen A Doornik - requires a licensed version of PcGive Professional

====================
Model selection:  Autometrics
replications, M=         1000  time                  1:06.10
Autometrics settings
test form                LR-F  target size        Small:0.01
outlier detection          no  presearch reduction      lags
backtesting              GUM0  tie-breaker                SC
diagnostics p-value      0.01  search effort        standard
lag presearch            lags  variable presearch         no
minimal p-value          0.05  presearch p-value    0.114127
reduction    prune&chop&bunch  tree search          iterated
pruning p-value          0.01  squeeze p-value         0.002
chopping p-value         0.05  bunching p-value         0.05
Autometrics version      1.5f  block effort                1

*** BUcx_t(delta=0.2, gamma=0, USE_CONSTANT_U, t=4, rho=0.9, sat=None)
 M=1000 T=100 pvalue=0.01 #insig=11 #sig=11 cp=23 cp_orig=23

Gauge (%)                     11.3273
Potency (%)                   71.8182
Replications, M=            1000.0000
GUM: relevant variables       11.0000
GUM: irrelevant variables     11.0000
GUM: no of variables          23.0000
Relevant (avg no)              7.9000
Insignificant (avg no)         0.2560
Insign. irrelevant (avg no)    0.0890
Signif. irrelevant (avg no)    1.1570
ESE final model                0.9816
ESE DGP                        0.9877
Final equals DGP (% reps)      9.5000
Final contains DGP (% reps)   14.4000
Gauge (significant only)      10.5182
F+DGP dominates F at 5%       64.0000
F+DGP dominates DGP at 5%     67.3000
Both dominated at 5%          46.1000


        y_1     x1   x1_1     x2   x2_1     x3   x3_1     x4   x4_1     x5   x5_1
Hits   99.9   79.3   58.0   79.0   57.1   78.8   58.2   79.7   58.4   80.9   60.7

Model size
    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
    0    0    0    0    2    9   29   54  110  141  231  145  181   63   30    4    1    0    0    0    0


Diagnostic tests DGP rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      15.50   8.40   1.70
ARCH(1)     8.40   3.60   0.50
Normality  11.20   6.20   1.60
Hetero     12.90   6.80   2.00
Chow(70%)  14.80   9.40   2.00
Joint      48.60  29.20   7.30

Diagnostic tests Model rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      11.90   5.90   0.10
ARCH(1)     8.00   3.30   0.00
Normality   9.30   5.70   0.10
Hetero     10.30   5.00   0.10
Chow(70%)  15.70   9.10   0.60
Joint      44.00  26.00   0.90

Diagnostic tests GUM rejection(%)
          p=0.10 p=0.05 p=0.01
AR(2)      18.90  10.20   2.80
ARCH(1)     7.10   3.20   0.80
Normality   9.80   4.90   1.40
Hetero      8.10   3.50   0.90
Chow(70%)  21.80  14.30   4.80
Joint      50.80  31.00  10.20

GUM for diagnostic testing is GUM0
