COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-04-04


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references, but remains preliminary. Also preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-05 to 2020-04-11

DateUKEUBEDEESFRITNLPTSECH
2020-04-04 4313 40898 1283 1444 11947 7560 15362 1651 266 373 666
2020-04-05 5100 44900 1450 1630 12800 8800 16100 1810 290 420 740
2020-04-06 5900 49700 1650 1830 13700 10000 17000 1990 320 490 820
2020-04-07 6900 54900 1880 2060 14600 11300 17800 2190 350 580 900
2020-04-08 8100 60800 2150 2320 15600 12800 18700 2410 390 670 1000
2020-04-09 9400 67200 2450 2610 16600 14600 19700 2650 420 790 1100
2020-04-10 11000 74400 2790 2930 17800 16600 20700 2910 460 920 1210
2020-04-11 12800 82200 3190 3300 18900 18900 21800 3200 510 1090 1340

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-05 to 2020-04-11

DateBrazilCanadaIranUSUS-CAUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
2020-04-04 445 218 3452 8407 323 208 248 412 216 540 847 3568 318
2020-04-05 510 260 3590 9800 360 230 290 460 250 610 1020 4140 340
2020-04-06 580 290 3720 11200 400 270 330 500 290 680 1200 4800 360
2020-04-07 650 320 3860 12800 440 300 380 540 330 750 1400 5540 390
2020-04-08 730 360 4000 14700 480 350 430 580 380 840 1630 6400 420
2020-04-09 820 400 4150 16800 530 400 490 630 440 930 1910 7400 440
2020-04-10 920 450 4300 19200 580 460 560 680 500 1030 2240 8550 480
2020-04-11 1040 510 4460 22000 640 530 640 740 580 1150 2640 9890 510

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-05 to 2020-04-11

DateUKEUBEDEESFRITNLPTSECH
2020-04-04 4313 40898 1283 1444 11947 7560 15362 1651 266 373 666
2020-04-05 5000 44700 1390 1570 12700 8700 16100 1760 290 390 730
2020-04-06 5800 48900 1510 1720 13500 10100 16800 1900 310 420 800
2020-04-07 6700 53600 1640 1890 14300 11600 17500 2060 330 440 880
2020-04-08 7700 58700 1770 2070 15100 13300 18300 2220 350 470 950
2020-04-09 8900 64300 1920 2260 15900 15300 19100 2400 380 490 1040
2020-04-10 10300 70500 2080 2470 16800 17500 19900 2590 400 520 1130
2020-04-11 11900 77300 2240 2700 17700 20200 20800 2800 430 550 1230

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-05 to 2020-04-11

DateBrazilCanadaIranUSUS-CAUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
2020-04-04 445 218 3452 8407 323 208 248 412 216 540 847 3568 318
2020-04-05 520 250 3590 9700 370 220 270 470 260 620 1020 4010 330
2020-04-06 600 280 3720 11200 420 240 300 530 310 700 1220 4560 350
2020-04-07 700 320 3850 12900 490 260 330 590 360 790 1460 5140 370
2020-04-08 800 370 3990 14700 550 280 360 660 420 880 1730 5770 390
2020-04-09 920 420 4130 16900 630 300 390 740 480 990 2050 6490 410
2020-04-10 1050 470 4280 19400 720 330 420 820 560 1110 2440 7290 430
2020-04-11 1210 540 4440 22200 820 350 460 920 660 1250 2890 8200 450

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold green line in graphs) 2020-04-05 to 2020-04-13

DateEUESITNLPTCH
2020-04-04 40898 11947 15362 1651 266 666
2020-04-05 44100 12900 16200 1810 300 710
2020-04-06 47700 13900 17000 1990 320 760
2020-04-07 50700 14900 17800 2180 350 820
2020-04-08 52800 15900 18600 2370 390 880
2020-04-09 55300 16900 19400 2570 420 940
2020-04-10 57700 18000 20200 2770 440 990
2020-04-11 60000 19200 21100 2980 470 1050
2020-04-12 62200 20300 21900 3190 500 1100
2020-04-13 64400 21500 22800 3410 540 1130

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths