COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-25


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-02-25

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-0611-1110-2811-1612-18 --12-1612-182021-01-25 --11-032021-02-0912-1211-292021-01-0811-1212-1811-082021-01-2511-172021-01-0510-292021-01-0311-1711-02
Peak daily increment 57034 210465 7110 16471 3443 3823 23891 3419 42267 51953 1098 3554 5428 5772 34945 11039 24662 12578 8604 8566 1746 2815 1168 8404
Days since peak 48 111 106 120 101 69 71 69 31 114 16 75 88 48 105 69 109 31 100 51 119 53 100 115
Last total 4154562 22058334 452767 763885 243946 312547 1198168 2427069 209682 3180212 55687 3664050 186469 241592 414514 217478 2868435 1073971 1673252 801746 791971 652465 187762 300775 70040 553867
Last daily increment 9985 128187 2391 3076 1822 1913 13816 11032 603 9568 565 24549 1783 544 4385 638 19871 5011 12143 1160 3923 4995 757 2438 551 1169
Last week 59293 594090 11108 14146 8055 9533 63211 45810 3065 47090 3034 122768 8975 2338 17398 4078 87553 26571 50034 6977 17416 21299 4366 13023 1933 6092
Previous peak date04-0704-1203-2604-1507-2403-2710-2903-2704-0611-0212-1004-1211-14 --04-1004-1003-2403-31 --04-1004-0906-19 -- --03-2603-27
Previous peak daily increment 4731 53551 808 1470 238 271 12257 5664 316 21294 499 30360 2609 106 1118 5636 1079 814 358 1076 240 1140
Low between peaks 425 3422 27 79 118 -1037 318 19 6516 -1069 492 4 9 193 60 179 158 129 7 15

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-02-25

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-022021-01-202021-01-032021-01-222021-01-1609-152021-01-2811-282021-01-202021-02-1308-1012-222021-01-0612-102021-01-1012-052021-01-052021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-1012-062021-01-022021-01-082021-01-092021-02-1912-0811-0612-0511-162021-01-1011-162021-01-102021-01-092021-01-1311-2711-1911-142021-01-0811-172021-01-0212-0911-2612-112021-01-1311-2012-092021-01-0812-082021-01-0911-2712-102021-01-1211-1312-142021-01-1211-142021-01-172021-01-1412-0610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 54453 9215 4180 17013 92141 12406 13616 16981 6851 4292 27986 17701 720125 238099 695 3867 2817 9261 42316 4984 2579 285 792 16406 8865 174 25228 1493 12561 6415 3244 3605 3407 5454 3015 578 7920 6763 5848 2921 1163 8243 2132 3072 793 5865 2333 2623 15820 17473 3943 1537 10174 4802 1362 7648 21849 2491 6323 161 3223 12345 1433 800
Days since peak 207 36 53 34 40 163 28 89 36 12 199 65 50 77 46 82 51 50 53 71 99 45 46 81 54 48 47 6 79 111 82 101 46 101 46 47 43 90 98 103 48 100 54 78 91 76 43 97 78 48 79 47 90 77 44 104 73 44 103 39 42 81 129 55 98
Last total 28957 10390461 863495 812344 2241225 11063491 1314634 1607081 2069370 1300799 568680 4164802 1509124 2674766 28413388 57893 491110 315378 812907 3554629 424628 278189 40122 85607 1888855 964565 27247 361366 170595 1181144 659127 295215 401742 427263 542127 379466 44117 616241 481377 457153 292811 99445 852978 99621 198433 73505 778071 180282 292630 1619705 962404 422155 154554 925563 511546 111964 738499 2632666 279814 570982 14832 336169 615225 130813 54202
Last daily increment 10 65998 3147 4472 3683 16577 8493 8206 8462 7302 2260 11067 1676 9572 77291 179 890 732 940 5539 1119 966 179 294 6634 3471 36 619 485 1901 1084 26 1443 769 1925 976 218 1556 968 664 920 203 3348 90 387 336 3577 292 571 8891 2409 1145 492 2389 2502 156 1885 7814 633 2036 72 1087 965 431 214
Last week 37 306253 17822 20405 24224 86104 51335 48922 38879 38995 11622 72153 8447 50747 407278 753 5898 3482 8791 33404 5980 6025 661 1614 35834 17407 285 3475 1642 10337 5882 2000 7063 5388 9098 4492 893 7213 4528 3253 2919 1068 16329 468 1727 1783 17424 1993 2330 42723 12709 4814 2364 14142 13609 946 8016 44954 3062 11052 589 4741 4251 1758 519
Previous peak date03-2808-0405-0306-06 -- -- --04-0110-0508-02 --05-0907-1604-14 -- --07-1604-2207-0407-2004-2404-2005-0110-0207-1711-0308-2711-1209-0909-04 --04-30 --07-1904-1705-0605-2204-06 -- --07-24 -- -- --05-0105-0104-0807-2207-1904-0104-19 -- --04-0907-1608-2706-0211-01 --05-26 --07-18 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45271 1988 7349 2860 22833 8380 10927 12481 4816 1851 153 3557 9152 729 1011 190 409 11222 21992 245 4362 986 3933 303 2155 2171 1017 48 1624 1273 441 89 4272 286 1108 11249 1004 1624 1834 465 1079 26264 1076 847 51
Low between peaks 7 19229 291 1343 1048 4599 1490 4743 1435 -708 882 74 482 3180 179 72 31 126 2309 2470 81 598 283 1766 95 377 -21 361 15 153 463 142 19 115 95 298 584 386 422 764 232 468 9248 479 398 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-26 to 2021-03-04

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-02-25 4154562 22058334 452767 763885 243946 312547 1198168 2427069 209682 3180212 55687 3664050 186469 241592 414514 217478 2868435 1073971 1673252 801746 791971 652465 187762 300775 70040 553867
2021-02-26 4167000 22148000 453200 765400 246000 313400 1211000 2436000 210100 3216000 56240 3680000 188200 241800 418000 218500 2875000 1079000 1685000 809200 794700 655000 188900 302400 70150 555700
2021-02-27 4186000 22230000 454200 767200 247100 314300 1223000 2445000 210400 3230000 56710 3697000 190000 242200 421600 219900 2886000 1085000 1696000 813900 797500 655000 189900 304700 70260 556000
2021-02-28 4202000 22295000 455500 768800 247900 315200 1232000 2450000 210700 3235000 57040 3715000 191500 242400 424900 221100 2896000 1090000 1705000 817100 799900 655000 190400 306100 70400 556100
2021-03-01 4216000 22366000 456600 769600 249700 316300 1239000 2456000 211000 3263000 57260 3718000 192800 242500 427900 222100 2904000 1094000 1712000 819000 801600 655000 190700 306600 70640 558700
2021-03-02 4229000 22445000 458000 771400 251100 317600 1251000 2462000 211400 3275000 57500 3736000 194800 242800 430200 223100 2915000 1098000 1720000 821100 804500 663300 191500 308300 70950 559900
2021-03-03 4242000 22560000 459800 774200 252700 319400 1267000 2473000 211800 3283000 57860 3764000 196700 243400 433400 224000 2929000 1102000 1732000 823300 807500 668300 192500 311600 71260 561000
2021-03-04 4254000 22675000 461700 776700 254100 321100 1278000 2483000 212200 3294000 58140 3783000 198200 243800 437000 224900 2946000 1107000 1742000 824800 810700 672600 193200 313900 71700 562100

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-26 to 2021-03-04

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-02-25 10390461 863495 812344 2241225 11063491 1314634 1607081 2069370 1300799 568680 4164802 1509124 2674766 28413388 57893 491110 315378 812907 3554629 424628 278189 40122 85607 1888855 964565 27247 361366 170595 1181144 659127 295215 401742 427263 542127 379466 44117 616241 481377 457153 292811 99445 852978 99621 198433 73505 778071 180282 292630 1619705 962404 422155 154554 925563 511546 111964 738499 2632666 279814 570982 14832 336169 615225 130813 54202
2021-02-26 10418000 866300 815800 2246000 11068000 1323000 1615000 2083000 1308000 570300 4178000 1513000 2684000 28489000 58010 493100 315700 814400 3561000 426300 279400 40230 85870 1895000 969600 27310 362300 170900 1184000 659600 297400 402900 428500 543700 379800 44270 617300 482100 457800 294400 99600 854800 99700 199000 73830 781000 180800 293100 1630000 964600 423900 154900 928100 515700 112100 740200 2639000 280400 571800 14940 337000 616500 131200 54260
2021-02-27 10457000 869800 819500 2254000 11078000 1331000 1622000 2094000 1315000 571600 4190000 1515000 2693000 28593000 58170 494600 316400 817000 3574000 427700 279600 40400 86310 1903000 974100 27370 362300 171200 1186000 660600 297600 405300 429200 545700 380000 44440 618300 483000 458600 295600 99900 858900 99700 199600 74260 784900 181300 293700 1640000 967300 425300 155500 932700 519600 112200 744200 2657000 281400 573000 15100 338400 617500 131700 54320
2021-02-28 10488000 872900 822900 2260000 11089000 1337000 1630000 2098000 1328000 573000 4202000 1516000 2701000 28682000 58320 496000 316600 819000 3584000 428500 279700 40540 86660 1911000 976800 27430 362300 171200 1188000 661100 297600 407000 431100 547100 380300 44570 618300 483700 459300 296700 100200 862000 99800 199800 74630 788300 181600 294200 1648000 969700 426600 156000 936400 522900 112300 747100 2669000 282200 574000 15230 339400 618100 132100 54380
2021-03-01 10511000 875900 826000 2266000 11097000 1346000 1637000 2101000 1328000 574500 4213000 1517000 2710000 28763000 58460 497000 316700 820800 3593000 429200 282200 40660 86960 1917000 978900 27460 362300 171500 1189000 661600 298600 408500 431800 548700 380500 44700 619800 484500 459900 297600 100400 864600 99800 199900 74960 791300 181900 294700 1655000 972000 427200 156500 939400 524400 112400 749400 2678000 282800 574800 15340 340400 618600 132400 54450
2021-03-02 10569000 878800 828100 2271000 11108000 1354000 1644000 2109000 1331000 576000 4225000 1518000 2718000 28842000 58600 497900 316900 822500 3601000 430100 283400 40780 87260 1923000 982800 27490 362300 171900 1191000 661600 298700 409900 433000 549600 380800 44830 621300 485200 460500 298300 100600 866900 99900 200200 75300 794300 182100 295200 1662000 974200 428000 156900 942300 525900 112600 751600 2687000 283500 575600 15460 341300 619400 132800 54530
2021-03-03 10629000 881600 830200 2276000 11123000 1362000 1652000 2117000 1336000 577600 4235000 1519000 2726000 28917000 58730 498900 317400 824000 3608000 431000 284400 40880 87530 1929000 986300 27530 362300 172200 1193000 661700 299800 411100 433500 551000 381000 44980 622500 485900 461100 299200 100800 869000 100000 200600 75610 797200 182400 295600 1667000 976300 428900 157300 944900 527700 112800 753500 2695000 284100 576400 15560 342100 620200 133100 54600
2021-03-04 10686000 884400 834200 2280000 11136000 1369000 1659000 2125000 1342000 579200 4246000 1521000 2734000 28990000 58870 499900 318200 825500 3615000 432200 285200 40990 87790 1935000 989800 27580 362300 172600 1195000 662700 299800 412300 434600 552800 381300 45180 623900 486600 461600 299700 100900 871000 100100 200900 75930 800100 182800 296000 1676000 978400 429900 157600 947500 530300 112900 755200 2701000 284600 577100 15670 342900 621100 133500 54670

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-26 to 2021-03-04

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-02-25 4154562 22058334 452767 763885 243946 312547 1198168 2427069 209682 3180212 55687 3664050 186469 241592 414514 217478 2868435 1073971 1673252 801746 791971 652465 187762 300775 70040 553867
2021-02-26 4164000 22151000 454500 766400 245700 314300 1211000 2434000 210200 3189000 56150 3687000 188100 242000 417800 218100 2882000 1078000 1683000 803400 795100 656200 188500 303100 70380 554900
2021-02-27 4172000 22191000 455800 768000 246500 315500 1220000 2438000 210500 3195000 56570 3704000 189400 242300 420400 218900 2891000 1082000 1690000 805000 797600 656600 189200 305300 70530 555200
2021-02-28 4180000 22224000 457200 769600 247000 316400 1226000 2440000 210900 3198000 56910 3721000 190300 242600 422900 219700 2898000 1085000 1697000 805800 799800 657000 189600 307100 70670 555400
2021-03-01 4189000 22257000 458300 770900 248400 317600 1230000 2442000 211300 3211000 57210 3728000 191300 242700 425100 220300 2902000 1088000 1702000 806200 801600 657400 190000 308300 70880 556700
2021-03-02 4196000 22292000 459400 772400 249600 318800 1238000 2445000 211700 3221000 57490 3744000 192800 243000 426600 221000 2907000 1091000 1708000 807100 804200 662000 190700 310200 71130 557600
2021-03-03 4204000 22346000 460800 774400 250500 320400 1250000 2449000 212100 3231000 57870 3762000 194000 243400 428800 221700 2913000 1094000 1716000 808000 806800 664300 191500 312700 71350 558400
2021-03-04 4213000 22394000 462200 776100 251500 321800 1259000 2453000 212500 3241000 58240 3777000 195200 243700 431700 222400 2920000 1097000 1724000 808900 809400 666600 192200 314800 71610 559300

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-26 to 2021-03-04

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-02-25 10390461 863495 812344 2241225 11063491 1314634 1607081 2069370 1300799 568680 4164802 1509124 2674766 28413388 57893 491110 315378 812907 3554629 424628 278189 40122 85607 1888855 964565 27247 361366 170595 1181144 659127 295215 401742 427263 542127 379466 44117 616241 481377 457153 292811 99445 852978 99621 198433 73505 778071 180282 292630 1619705 962404 422155 154554 925563 511546 111964 738499 2632666 279814 570982 14832 336169 615225 130813 54202
2021-02-26 10444000 866200 816300 2245000 11074000 1324000 1614000 2079000 1308000 570300 4173000 1511000 2683000 28491000 58040 492000 315800 813900 3560000 426000 279300 40260 85890 1895000 967900 27290 362200 170900 1183000 659900 296500 403100 427800 543400 380300 44270 617500 482200 457700 293500 99700 855400 99700 198800 73840 781300 180600 293100 1627000 964400 423000 155000 928300 514600 112100 740400 2641000 280400 572900 14930 336900 616000 131100 54310
2021-02-27 10485000 868300 820000 2249000 11080000 1331000 1620000 2089000 1315000 571600 4179000 1512000 2691000 28547000 58180 492600 316200 815000 3564000 427000 279800 40360 86180 1901000 970800 27330 362800 171100 1185000 661000 296900 404200 428000 544400 380900 44370 618200 482900 458200 293900 99900 858400 99800 199200 74190 784400 181000 293500 1635000 966100 423600 155400 931300 517600 112200 742700 2647000 281000 574800 15050 337500 616400 131300 54370
2021-02-28 10516000 870500 823500 2253000 11086000 1337000 1626000 2094000 1324000 572800 4185000 1513000 2698000 28597000 58310 493300 316500 816000 3569000 427600 280200 40440 86450 1906000 972900 27380 363200 171200 1186000 661700 297200 405300 428900 545100 381400 44440 618200 483600 458600 294400 100000 861400 99800 199400 74530 787100 181300 293900 1642000 967200 424400 155800 933900 520400 112300 744700 2652000 281500 576500 15160 338000 616700 131600 54440
2021-03-01 10537000 872800 826800 2257000 11090000 1345000 1631000 2099000 1326000 574100 4191000 1514000 2705000 28648000 58440 493700 316700 817000 3572000 428100 281700 40510 86710 1911000 974700 27410 363800 171500 1187000 662500 298000 406300 429200 545800 381800 44520 619300 484300 459100 294800 100100 862900 99900 199600 74850 789700 181500 294200 1648000 968200 424800 156200 936400 521800 112300 746500 2657000 282000 578000 15270 338400 617000 131800 54510
2021-03-02 10595000 875000 829000 2260000 11095000 1353000 1637000 2108000 1330000 575300 4197000 1516000 2713000 28695000 58570 494100 317000 818100 3576000 428800 282700 40580 86970 1917000 977800 27440 364300 171800 1188000 663100 298400 407300 429900 546300 382200 44610 620400 485000 459500 295200 100300 864700 100000 199900 75180 792600 181600 294500 1655000 969300 425500 156600 939000 523400 112400 748200 2661000 282500 579500 15360 338900 617400 132000 54570
2021-03-03 10650000 877200 831300 2264000 11101000 1360000 1642000 2116000 1335000 576600 4203000 1517000 2721000 28744000 58710 494700 317300 819300 3580000 429700 283600 40630 87220 1922000 980500 27470 365000 172100 1190000 663700 299300 408300 430300 547100 382600 44690 621300 485700 460000 295600 100500 868000 100000 200200 75500 795400 181900 294800 1661000 970400 426300 156900 941500 525500 112500 749800 2664000 283000 580900 15450 339300 617900 132200 54630
2021-03-04 10698000 879400 834900 2268000 11106000 1367000 1647000 2123000 1341000 577800 4209000 1519000 2728000 28800000 58840 495300 317700 820400 3583000 430800 284200 40690 87470 1928000 983700 27520 365600 172400 1191000 664700 299600 409200 431000 547900 383100 44780 622200 486400 460500 295800 100600 871500 100100 200500 75820 798200 182200 295200 1669000 971400 427000 157300 943900 528000 112600 751700 2668000 283600 582200 15560 339700 618500 132500 54700

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed