COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-04-04


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Moderation of forecast

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with +). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but it seems that our forecasts need slightly less frequent updating.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. Again: no other epidemiological data is used.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecasted, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references, but remains preliminary. Also preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-05 to 2020-04-09

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-04 41903 534041 11781 18431 4539 4472 96092 4077 126168 89953 4604 124632 16627 3627 10524 3613 6443 5550 20505
2020-04-05 46700 571000 12300 20000 4840 4800 102000 4420 133000 103000 5000 129000 17800 3990 11300 4000 6990 5750 21600
2020-04-06 52200 603000 13000 21700 5170 5100 108000 4760 141000 113000 5360 133000 19100 4350 12300 4330 7600 5960 23000
2020-04-07 58300 636000 13800 23400 5510 5430 114000 5120 148000 125000 5760 138000 20500 4740 13300 4690 8260 6160 24400
2020-04-08 65200 670000 14600 25300 5890 5780 120000 5520 156000 139000 6190 142000 22100 5180 14300 5090 8980 6370 26000
2020-04-09 72900 705000 15500 27400 6280 6160 126000 5950 165000 154000 6650 146000 23700 5650 15500 5530 9770 6590 27600

Confirmed count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-05 to 2020-04-09

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaPhilippinesUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-04 5550 10360 12978 55743 3483 3094 308850 13796 4574 5276 11537 6383 10357 12496 11736 14225 34124 114996 7498 1608047
2020-04-05 5770 11600 14200 59200 3690 3390 349000 15300 5000 5870 12900 7000 11700 14500 13000 16000 38500 127000 8100 1748000
2020-04-06 6020 12900 15800 63400 3920 3740 394000 17100 5430 6430 14400 7800 13200 16300 14300 17800 43000 139000 8600 1896000
2020-04-07 6270 14400 17600 68000 4170 4130 446000 19000 5910 7050 16100 8600 14800 18500 15600 19900 48000 152000 9300 2054000
2020-04-08 6530 16000 19500 72900 4420 4570 505000 21200 6420 7730 17900 9600 16700 20900 17100 22200 53700 167000 10000 2223000
2020-04-09 6790 17800 21700 78100 4690 5040 572000 23600 6990 8490 20000 10600 18900 23700 18700 24700 60000 183000 10700 2405000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-05 to 2020-04-09

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-04 41903 534041 11781 18431 4539 4472 96092 4077 126168 89953 4604 124632 16627 3627 10524 3613 6443 5550 20505
2020-04-05 46100 572000 12300 20000 4800 4760 101000 4390 133000 97000 4980 129000 17700 3910 11200 3950 7000 5740 21700
2020-04-06 50800 610000 12900 21700 5090 5070 107000 4730 139000 112000 5390 133000 18800 4220 11900 4370 7570 5930 23100
2020-04-07 55900 647000 13500 23500 5380 5400 112000 5100 146000 129000 5830 137000 20000 4570 12600 4830 8200 6130 24500
2020-04-08 61500 685000 14100 25500 5700 5750 117000 5490 152000 149000 6310 141000 21200 4940 13300 5330 8870 6330 26000
2020-04-09 67700 724000 14800 27600 6040 6130 123000 5910 159000 172000 6820 146000 22600 5340 14100 5900 9610 6530 27600

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-05 to 2020-04-09

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaPhilippinesUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-04 5550 10360 12978 55743 3483 3094 308850 13796 4574 5276 11537 6383 10357 12496 11736 14225 34124 114996 7498 1608047
2020-04-05 5730 11400 14100 59100 3700 3430 347000 15100 4920 5790 12700 6950 11300 13800 12800 15700 37900 126000 7900 1758000
2020-04-06 5920 12800 15400 62900 3930 3720 392000 16700 5300 6360 13900 7560 12600 15500 14000 17400 42600 140000 8500 1909000
2020-04-07 6110 14300 16800 66700 4170 4030 443000 18500 5730 6990 15200 8190 14000 17300 15300 19200 47600 155000 9100 2072000
2020-04-08 6290 16000 18400 71000 4430 4360 503000 20500 6190 7680 16600 8890 15600 19400 16700 21200 53300 172000 9700 2242000
2020-04-09 6480 17800 20300 75500 4700 4730 571000 22800 6680 8430 18200 9650 17400 21700 18200 23400 59600 191000 10400 2425000

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed