COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-26


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-09-26

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date -- -- -- --07-24 -- --03-27 -- --04-0404-12 --08-26 --04-1003-24 -- --04-10 --06-19 -- --03-2603-27
Peak daily increment 238 5663 146 19307 285 1117 5643 830 1075 240 1137
Days from 100 to peak 126 25 22 44 160 27 30 28 105 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 125 14 22 24 158 21 20 23 99 18 17
Last total 429277 2717623 42214 112803 19997 15693 63294 285026 26213 716481 9577 527554 17228 16007 23077 34560 308104 108631 85980 72939 121235 90923 5191 8600 13627 51864
Last daily increment 6041 18001 714 1827 169 158 1976 1314 619 0 93 0 315 212 950 245 1869 2713 1584 884 1552 0 184 552 82 0
Last week 35020 265117 4119 10508 1134 1307 14004 11061 3308 76441 597 82576 2086 1085 5087 1627 9948 14853 6740 4362 8454 2686 771 1923 730 2581
Days since peak 64 183 175 167 31 169 186 169 99 184 183

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-09-26

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date08-0208-0405-0306-0608-13 -- -- --07-3108-0208-1005-0907-1604-1407-1907-2609-16 --07-0407-20 --04-2005-0108-1407-1707-3008-2708-2709-0909-0408-24 -- --07-1904-1705-0605-2204-06 -- --07-24 -- -- -- --05-0104-0807-2307-1904-0107-03 --07-2404-0907-16 --07-2709-21 --08-0708-01 -- -- --
Peak daily increment 483 45355 1991 7362 11283 6738 8364 4291 10920 12483 4816 66981 101 12284 3552 9259 1012 190 208 11222 3329 248 1606 932 4031 973 2160 2171 1017 48 1627 1273 89 4272 286 1108 9495 1810 334 1624 1837 2139 20042 1435 1071
Days from 100 to peak 145 141 51 83 146 135 137 147 52 120 27 136 118 180 104 132 30 39 142 124 136 154 157 169 173 156 125 37 48 60 21 125 38 24 120 120 22 106 126 23 117 130 189 141 146
Days from peak/2 to peak 140 113 43 64 107 113 115 131 34 75 19 118 122 144 92 114 27 40 142 108 125 152 144 162 161 151 118 29 41 65 15 117 42 16 118 113 12 98 124 16 108 122 165 132 140
Last total 27040 4717991 153770 455979 806038 5903932 271339 443086 726431 794584 301256 1138509 669498 312966 7078089 7348 151591 78898 216824 807451 68489 56455 15215 19667 697013 295318 11988 85891 40296 286232 116549 56653 66036 163732 127382 122972 5258 128382 95489 112421 96677 11907 206060 20380 43327 8118 202514 27315 78355 454760 150009 83460 32581 159933 145273 21133 185046 754311 56720 145267 85521 113645 15167 5465
Last daily increment 24 28378 1053 2111 7721 85362 4494 3204 5573 0 1895 7421 969 1511 45377 112 933 718 457 3791 584 0 52 69 2780 1452 127 867 540 2442 1142 228 970 0 516 613 24 996 1455 1999 645 343 1730 495 442 37 754 202 602 1005 1115 1002 267 919 1371 579 1383 3243 913 973 590 2817 205 45
Last week 128 173362 8020 9705 40962 416352 26663 20946 28768 31719 14513 39551 8287 10099 273275 527 6629 4866 2807 21283 3652 1049 260 581 14857 8608 613 5497 2808 12029 5044 3953 4494 2708 2389 2816 181 6261 5681 8796 3313 1608 12513 2422 2440 177 3082 1097 2551 4860 5700 6723 1780 5066 7565 2437 7357 41304 5088 4872 3272 12418 1105 594
Days since peak 55 53 146 112 44 57 55 47 140 72 165 69 62 10 84 68 159 148 43 71 58 30 30 17 22 33 69 162 143 127 173 64 148 171 65 69 178 85 64 170 72 61 5 50 56

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-27 to 2020-10-03

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-09-26 429277 2717623 42214 112803 19997 15693 63294 285026 26213 716481 9577 527554 17228 16007 23077 34560 308104 108631 85980 72939 121235 90923 5191 8600 13627 51864
2020-09-27 436400 2771000 42950 116000 20000 15880 66830 285500 27420 742300 9670 527600 17400 16310 24740 34720 309100 111400 87700 73620 123300 90920 5336 8670 13730 52360
2020-09-28 444800 2819000 43670 118400 20000 16070 68540 287200 28400 761000 9760 545900 17800 16350 25760 34880 310400 114200 89400 74270 125500 90920 5476 8840 13840 52780
2020-09-29 453400 2864000 44390 121000 20090 16250 71110 289000 29450 779900 9850 554800 18140 16480 26370 35050 311700 117100 91080 74920 127700 91430 5618 9120 13940 53000
2020-09-30 463200 2909000 45090 123700 20200 16420 73910 290500 30510 799500 9940 556700 18520 16700 27330 35210 313100 120100 92750 75560 130000 91810 5754 9550 14050 53370
2020-10-01 473100 2951000 45810 126600 20370 16600 77430 292400 31600 819600 10020 576500 18940 16940 28120 35380 314700 123400 94410 76190 132400 92150 5890 9870 14150 53750
2020-10-02 483700 2992000 46530 129600 20530 16780 80370 294600 32740 840200 10110 590700 19290 17130 29250 35540 316600 126800 96070 76830 134700 92680 6027 10370 14260 54120
2020-10-03 494100 3032000 47250 132300 20660 16950 82100 295800 33910 861400 10190 590700 19710 17330 30370 35710 318200 130300 97730 77470 137200 92680 6164 10940 14360 54150

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-27 to 2020-10-03

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-09-26 4717991 153770 455979 806038 5903932 271339 443086 726431 794584 301256 1138509 669498 312966 7078089 7348 151591 78898 216824 807451 68489 56455 15215 19667 697013 295318 11988 85891 40296 286232 116549 56653 66036 163732 127382 122972 128382 95489 112421 96677 11907 206060 20380 43327 202514 27315 78355 454760 150009 83460 32581 159933 145273 21133 185046 754311 56720 145267 85521 113645 15167 5465
2020-09-27 4742000 154900 457900 812100 6100000 276900 449400 730700 802500 304200 1145000 671700 314600 7098000 7404 152600 80310 217300 810500 69110 56630 15260 19770 699600 297300 12200 86110 40300 286900 117400 56680 66360 164900 127500 123500 128400 97700 114700 96890 11950 206700 20880 44080 203000 27320 78400 455500 151000 85070 32580 160500 145600 21540 186500 758800 57860 146200 85520 115300 15350 5650
2020-09-28 4755000 155900 459200 818100 6231000 282900 456300 733300 808200 307200 1152000 672300 316100 7143000 7470 153600 81790 217400 813900 69710 56790 15300 19860 702000 298000 12270 86680 40590 288100 117900 57550 66690 165100 127800 124000 129400 99600 116600 97030 12230 209600 21390 44860 203400 27320 78660 456300 151800 86700 32730 161300 146200 21950 187800 762300 59050 147000 85520 116700 15480 5782
2020-09-29 4784000 157000 460300 824000 6338000 288800 463200 737800 809100 310100 1159000 673200 317700 7181000 7512 154700 83300 217800 816500 70290 56930 15350 19960 704500 299100 12350 87290 41020 289300 118400 57970 67410 165600 128000 124500 130100 101300 118300 97460 12570 212900 21900 45660 203800 27420 78920 457000 152500 88470 33030 162000 148000 22430 189100 767900 60280 147900 85810 118400 15660 5937
2020-09-30 4796000 158000 461500 829900 6530000 295400 470600 742100 814900 313000 1165000 674900 319200 7216000 7565 155700 84850 218300 819100 70850 57080 15390 20050 706800 300900 12510 88320 41440 290700 119100 58690 68170 166100 128400 125000 130900 103200 120500 98010 12850 215600 22430 46500 204200 27570 79280 457700 153300 90220 33210 162900 148700 22960 190400 770400 61540 148700 86170 120300 15800 6136
2020-10-01 4847000 159000 462900 835800 6695000 302100 478200 746700 820200 315900 1171000 676800 320800 7255000 7683 156700 86420 218900 822300 71420 57220 15440 20150 709200 302500 12610 89160 41910 292300 119900 59090 68800 166500 128800 125500 131800 105300 122400 98690 13330 218800 22980 47350 204600 27770 79630 458400 154300 92020 33490 163700 149700 23490 191700 774100 62830 149600 86560 122200 16000 6340
2020-10-02 4878000 160000 464800 841700 6859000 309100 485600 751600 829700 318900 1178000 678200 322300 7306000 7800 157700 88010 219500 826100 71990 57360 15480 20240 711600 304100 12740 90340 42420 294600 121100 60110 69660 167200 129200 126000 132800 107700 124900 99390 13800 226900 23540 48220 205000 28000 80130 459100 155300 93990 33860 164500 151000 24060 193000 777900 64150 150400 87140 124800 16230 6525
2020-10-03 4906000 161100 466800 847700 7011000 316200 493300 756700 831900 321800 1184000 679400 323900 7348000 7898 158700 89610 219900 829700 72560 57500 15520 20340 714000 305500 12850 91200 42790 296900 122100 60290 70560 167200 129700 126500 133600 109800 127800 99950 14220 230700 24110 49110 205400 28160 80620 459800 156300 95770 34100 165300 152100 24520 194300 780700 65490 151300 87700 127300 16440 6561

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-27 to 2020-10-03

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-09-26 429277 2717623 42214 112803 19997 15693 63294 285026 26213 716481 9577 527554 17228 16007 23077 34560 308104 108631 85980 72939 121235 90923 5191 8600 13627 51864
2020-09-27 436500 2759000 42820 115200 20050 15860 64670 285400 26800 727400 9607 531100 17490 16130 23980 34720 308500 111300 87260 73310 123100 90960 5287 8650 13710 52120
2020-09-28 445000 2827000 43440 117600 20120 16000 66190 286200 27430 746400 9648 543800 17910 16220 24920 34910 309100 114100 88850 73930 125000 91000 5388 8800 13810 52410
2020-09-29 453800 2881000 44140 120200 20220 16150 68720 287100 28100 762400 9708 553400 18320 16360 25540 35130 309700 117000 90480 74570 127100 91210 5509 9020 13910 52640
2020-09-30 463100 2931000 44860 122800 20360 16320 71350 287900 28780 778700 9756 559000 18750 16550 26410 35360 310500 119900 92240 75210 129800 91390 5653 9290 14010 52900
2020-10-01 472500 2983000 45640 125500 20530 16510 75160 288800 29480 795100 9803 573800 19200 16750 27300 35600 311200 123100 93850 75850 132300 91580 5805 9570 14110 53160
2020-10-02 482400 3037000 46440 128300 20690 16700 78600 289700 30200 812000 9852 585000 19620 16950 28400 35840 312000 126600 95330 76490 134900 91750 5981 9890 14210 53420
2020-10-03 492100 3078000 47230 131100 20810 16880 81550 290300 30930 827800 9894 589300 20050 17150 29640 36080 312800 129900 97110 77140 137400 91800 6139 10220 14300 53620

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-27 to 2020-10-03

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-09-26 4717991 153770 455979 806038 5903932 271339 443086 726431 794584 301256 1138509 669498 312966 7078089 7348 151591 78898 216824 807451 68489 56455 15215 19667 697013 295318 11988 85891 40296 286232 116549 56653 66036 163732 127382 122972 128382 95489 112421 96677 11907 206060 20380 43327 202514 27315 78355 454760 150009 83460 32581 159933 145273 21133 185046 754311 56720 145267 85521 113645 15167 5465
2020-09-27 4728000 154500 457200 811500 6020000 276800 448200 728600 799200 303800 1141000 670700 314500 7093000 7380 152300 79980 217200 808800 68820 56570 15240 19750 698800 296300 12040 86300 40410 287200 117100 56800 66230 164500 127500 123300 128400 97000 114500 96850 11980 208000 20820 43880 202600 27320 78410 455200 150500 84780 32640 160400 145700 21190 186300 757200 57810 145800 85600 114900 15310 5556
2020-09-28 4740000 155400 458500 817500 6151000 282800 455300 731500 804100 306800 1144000 671700 316100 7136000 7440 153200 81310 217600 810400 69270 56720 15270 19840 700900 297200 12080 86910 40610 288800 117600 57360 66690 164800 127700 123700 129200 98600 116600 97070 12160 211200 21230 44590 203000 27340 78560 455900 151100 86420 32750 161200 146500 21310 187500 760800 58970 146500 85670 116000 15470 5642
2020-09-29 4767000 156400 459600 824000 6248000 289000 462600 735700 805800 309700 1148000 672900 317600 7171000 7492 154100 82660 218100 811900 69780 56860 15300 19940 703200 298300 12140 87620 40930 290400 118300 57800 67360 165200 127800 124100 129800 100100 118800 97480 12460 214800 21620 45330 203400 27390 78800 456600 151700 88150 32960 161900 147900 21500 188600 764900 60130 147200 85840 117400 15650 5742
2020-09-30 4779000 157400 460800 830600 6414000 295500 470100 739800 810800 312700 1151000 674400 319200 7204000 7557 155200 84050 218600 813300 70320 57000 15330 20030 705500 300000 12250 88540 41300 292100 118900 58420 68050 165700 128100 124400 130600 101700 121100 97980 12730 218100 22140 46090 203800 27510 79130 457300 152400 89890 33150 162700 148800 21850 189900 766800 61330 147900 86110 119100 15810 5907
2020-10-01 4828000 158300 462500 837000 6565000 302200 477500 744100 815500 315700 1154000 676000 320800 7239000 7652 156000 85450 219200 815000 70830 57150 15370 20120 707900 301600 12330 89280 41690 294000 119700 58850 68670 166200 128300 124900 131500 103500 123400 98540 13070 221900 22710 46880 204200 27660 79460 458000 153300 91590 33370 163500 149700 22190 191200 769600 62680 148700 86390 121300 16010 6035
2020-10-02 4862000 159300 464200 844100 6742000 308900 485000 748700 822000 318700 1157000 677500 322400 7282000 7742 157100 86860 219800 817100 71320 57300 15410 20220 710400 303300 12430 90210 42070 296000 120700 59550 69390 166900 128500 125300 132300 105300 125900 99070 13380 226900 23250 47670 204600 27810 79820 458800 154100 93490 33620 164300 150900 22550 192800 773300 64130 149600 86760 123600 16220 6170
2020-10-03 4892000 160200 466200 851200 6899000 315800 492700 753300 825800 321800 1160000 679000 323900 7319000 7824 158400 88300 220400 819000 71730 57440 15440 20310 713000 305000 12520 91000 42400 298200 121600 59930 70140 167000 128800 125800 133000 107100 128500 99560 13700 230500 23850 48470 205100 27910 80110 459500 155000 95390 33820 165100 151900 22880 194000 776200 65570 150400 87010 125900 16430 6224

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-09-27 to 2020-10-05

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCHBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-09-26 429277 2717623 42214 112803 19997 15693 63294 285026 26213 716481 9577 527554 17228 16007 23077 34560 308104 108631 85980 72939 121235 90923 5191 8600 13627 51864 4717991 153770 455979 806038 5903932 271339 443086 726431 794584 301256 1138509 669498 312966 7078089 7348 151591 78898 216824 807451 68489 56455 15215 19667 697013 295318 11988 85891 40296 286232 116549 56653 66036 163732 127382 122972 128382 95489 112421 96677 11907 206060 20380 43327 202514 27315 78355 454760 150009 83460 32581 159933 145273 21133 185046 754311 56720 145267 85521 113645 15167 5465
2020-09-27 434400 2777000 42970 115200 20060 15920 66310 286300 26560 737300 9690 541200 17580 16120 24080 34870 309500 111300 86560 73550 122400 91260 5288 8600 13740 52420 4731000 154400 457800 811100 5966000 274800 449800 728300 799000 304500 1145000 670900 314700 7093000 7361 152300 79790 217300 809700 69450 56680 15260 19760 698400 296500 12010 86410 40360 287400 117900 57360 66330 164500 127500 123500 128900 95950 113600 96680 12040 207900 20540 43760 202600 27330 78360 455200 150800 84770 32580 160600 145600 21250 186000 765100 57730 145900 85520 115200 15340 5578
2020-09-28 443800 2838000 43900 118100 20170 16290 68540 287600 27180 750500 9810 554700 17950 16250 25000 35140 311200 113500 88230 74150 124900 91490 5444 8880 13830 52710 4753000 155100 459500 815600 6091000 280500 457300 731800 803200 306900 1151000 672000 316300 7121000 7416 152900 81400 217800 812000 70730 56870 15310 19840 699600 297500 12080 87110 40730 288800 119400 58250 67470 165200 127800 124100 129600 97690 116100 96980 12270 210700 21020 44620 203000 27420 78570 455900 151400 86710 32690 161300 146500 21660 187000 778100 58980 146500 85810 117700 15660 5714
2020-09-29 450400 2891000 44660 120200 20290 16540 70540 289200 27600 762400 9930 565900 18290 16360 25680 35430 313100 115600 88980 74830 126400 91760 5570 9180 13930 52990 4769000 156100 461300 820700 6167000 284800 460900 734500 806800 309500 1156000 673100 318100 7145000 7463 153600 82240 218200 813900 71520 56980 15350 19900 700800 298300 12150 87700 40930 290700 120600 58800 68120 165500 128100 124600 130400 98450 117900 97250 12580 212500 21390 44960 203400 27500 78620 456500 152100 87980 32820 162000 146900 21980 187600 784300 60100 147000 86160 119800 15840 5803
2020-09-30 455700 2930000 45270 122300 20360 16780 72560 290300 28020 773400 10060 582300 18600 16470 26590 35670 314600 117700 90210 75490 128000 92010 5699 9450 14020 53200 4783000 156600 462900 824700 6230000 289100 465200 736600 809500 311400 1161000 673800 320200 7164000 7519 154100 83110 218600 815700 72190 57070 15380 19980 701700 299200 12210 88360 41180 292000 121100 59260 68550 165700 128300 125000 131000 99050 118900 97450 12830 213800 21740 45230 203800 27580 78760 457200 152800 88950 32960 162700 147400 22440 188300 786200 61130 147500 86340 121700 16030 5875
2020-10-01 460900 2974000 45960 124300 20400 16970 74300 291900 28350 783600 10150 595900 18850 16560 27250 35960 316800 119900 90810 76090 128700 92250 5779 9640 14120 53460 4791000 157200 464500 828400 6279000 292400 466600 738200 812200 313300 1166000 674400 321700 7178000 7559 154400 83810 218600 817300 72820 57130 15410 20030 702500 300000 12270 88940 41440 293500 121500 59660 68550 165900 128400 125500 131600 99180 120100 97650 13010 215600 22030 45410 204100 27660 78890 457700 153500 90000 33060 163400 147800 22730 189000 786500 61830 148100 86490 123700 16180 5948
2020-10-02 465500 3029000 46690 126800 20470 17200 76140 292800 28790 793200 10270 608000 19140 16660 27950 36160 318500 122300 92100 76630 130300 92510 5864 9840 14240 53610 4797000 157700 465800 832700 6339000 296300 471800 739900 813900 315100 1170000 674900 323400 7192000 7571 154800 84000 218800 818700 73480 57190 15440 20090 703200 300600 12300 89310 41730 294500 122000 59900 68800 166000 128600 126000 132100 99610 121800 97780 13230 218300 22410 45800 204400 27720 79020 458300 153800 91210 33110 164000 148100 23110 189600 788400 62890 148500 86710 125800 16390 6038
2020-10-03 469400 3040000 47290 126800 20510 17450 77790 293900 29150 804200 10370 618000 19410 16730 28780 36370 320500 124200 92700 77240 130300 92730 5957 9980 14370 53820 4802000 158200 467200 835500 6395000 300200 473800 741200 814300 316400 1173000 675400 324700 7199000 7585 155000 84000 218800 819200 73920 57280 15470 20150 703700 301000 12340 89810 41860 295500 122600 59900 68800 166100 128700 126500 132600 99610 122700 97910 13380 219100 22690 45800 204600 27780 79180 458800 154300 92070 33170 164500 148200 23230 189800 788400 63320 148800 86840 127500 16480 6116
2020-10-04 475600 3083000 48030 126800 20560 17710 79980 294900 29640 812700 10440 626600 19640 16800 29070 36610 322500 126300 93910 77810 130300 92960 6034 10180 14470 54040 4807000 158800 468400 839300 6454000 304200 475100 742300 816200 318200 1175000 675700 326300 7208000 7603 155100 84000 218900 819700 74360 57330 15510 20190 704200 301400 12380 90190 42120 297000 123700 59900 68800 166300 129000 127000 133200 99610 124300 98040 13580 219800 23020 45800 204900 27820 79330 459300 154700 93320 33220 165000 148200 23590 190100 788400 64270 149000 86930 129500 16700 6211
2020-10-05 480500 3119000 48670 126800 20590 17940 81830 295900 30090 821700 10510 640000 19900 16880 29660 36800 324700 128500 94740 78270 130300 93120 6127 10370 14610 54200 4808000 159100 469900 841100 6503000 307900 475100 743200 817700 319400 1178000 675800 327700 7216000 7618 155100 84000 218900 820000 74730 57330 15540 20240 704600 301800 12420 90580 42280 297700 123900 59900 68800 166300 129100 127400 133600 99610 125800 98140 13770 221300 23320 45800 205100 27880 79340 459700 155200 94400 33240 165500 148300 23870 190200 788400 65170 149500 86980 131400 16910 6295

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed