COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-01-16 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-01-16

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-01-16

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292022-01-022021-12-282022-01-022021-12-312021-12-272021-12-282022-01-032022-01-032022-01-012021-12-29 --2021-12-292021-12-252021-12-282022-01-032022-01-022021-12-282021-12-292022-01-022021-12-292022-01-022022-01-012021-12-212022-01-032021-12-292022-01-042022-01-062021-12-282022-01-022021-12-292022-01-102021-12-292021-12-292022-01-042021-12-28 --2021-12-282021-12-222021-12-282022-01-022022-01-022021-12-292021-12-212021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292022-01-042021-12-292021-12-282022-01-042021-12-142021-12-152021-12-282021-12-302021-12-282022-01-032021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292021-12-282021-12-26 --2021-12-292021-12-27 --2021-12-292021-12-292021-12-192021-12-292021-12-282021-12-272021-12-292021-12-282021-12-282021-12-292022-01-032022-01-022021-12-292022-01-042022-01-032022-01-032021-12-292021-12-212021-12-282022-01-042021-12-222021-12-292021-12-272021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292022-01-032021-12-292021-12-292022-01-032022-01-042021-12-282021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292022-01-022021-12-27 --2021-12-272022-01-032021-12-282022-01-022021-12-282021-12-312022-01-042021-12-292022-01-032021-12-312022-01-032021-12-202021-12-262021-12-212021-12-192021-12-292022-01-032021-12-292022-01-032021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282022-01-032022-01-042022-01-032022-01-102021-12-282021-12-282022-01-032022-01-032021-12-282022-01-022021-12-202021-12-172021-12-272021-12-152021-12-292022-01-032021-12-16 --2021-12-172021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292022-01-022022-01-042021-12-292021-12-292021-12-262022-01-022021-12-272021-12-292021-12-302021-12-292022-01-02 --2022-01-022021-12-292022-01-032021-12-292022-01-042021-12-282021-12-282021-12-152021-12-202021-12-292021-12-282022-01-102021-12-212022-01-032021-12-282021-12-152021-12-302022-01-022021-12-292021-12-292021-12-162021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292022-01-032021-12-292021-12-272021-12-292021-12-25 --2021-12-272021-12-302022-01-032021-12-272021-12-19 --2022-01-022021-12-28 --2022-01-022022-01-052021-12-272022-01-042021-12-292021-12-282021-12-302021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292022-01-032022-01-102021-12-212021-12-272022-01-022021-12-29 --2021-12-292021-12-292021-12-212021-12-292021-12-272022-01-032021-12-302022-01-022022-01-042022-01-032021-12-292022-01-132022-01-032021-12-292021-12-292021-12-29 --2021-12-292021-12-22 --2021-12-282022-01-072021-12-292022-01-042022-01-022021-12-292021-12-302022-01-04 --2021-12-282022-01-042021-12-292021-12-262021-12-282021-12-27 --2021-12-192022-01-022022-01-032021-12-282022-01-032022-01-022022-01-022022-01-032021-12-292021-12-282022-01-032022-01-022021-12-272021-12-302022-01-042022-01-042021-12-272022-01-032021-12-292021-12-292021-12-212021-12-312022-01-032022-01-032022-01-032022-01-022022-01-102021-12-302022-01-022022-01-022021-12-292022-01-032022-01-07 --2021-12-292021-12-292021-12-29 --2021-12-282022-01-02 --2022-01-042022-01-032022-01-05 --2021-12-292021-12-162021-12-302021-12-202021-12-282022-01-022022-01-012021-12-282021-12-272021-12-292022-01-032022-01-112022-01-04 --2022-01-042021-12-292021-12-262021-12-292021-12-292022-01-042021-12-282022-01-022021-12-22 --2022-01-102021-12-292021-12-292021-12-302021-12-292021-12-282021-12-212021-12-262022-01-102021-12-292022-01-042021-12-142021-12-292021-12-202021-12-272021-12-282022-01-022022-01-032022-01-042021-12-202021-12-192021-12-292021-12-292022-01-02 --2022-01-02 --2021-12-272021-12-292022-01-032021-12-272021-12-292021-12-302021-12-272021-12-282022-01-022021-12-152021-12-292021-12-292021-12-192021-12-262021-12-292021-12-292022-01-022022-01-02 --2022-01-032021-12-282022-01-042021-12-272022-01-042022-01-102021-12-30
Peak daily increment 513 505 125 354 325 249 399 407 147 611 253 348 265 197 608 937 883 292 521 395 317 378 421 1029 755 2536 313 514 474 301 219 862 121 762 325 1381 395 868 212 477 651 1065 299 973 232 285 281 311 545 546 585 242 738 322 299 1057 323 486 248 429 674 175 462 467 360 1049 359 190 198 401 1295 143 436 31 365 292 189 810 137 1731 887 139 289 1180 406 444 318 192 251 721 156 849 962 654 220 947 350 355 890 353 159 213 346 407 263 244 202 293 880 299 539 210 289 118 365 869 355 212 326 219 426 243 196 514 876 443 217 152 237 658 320 1887 268 166 267 238 904 300 305 2285 480 198 645 808 285 353 638 195 427 162 245 788 359 280 253 520 788 297 725 425 279 265 315 221 173 854 414 257 290 735 446 1210 555 1416 375 2140 913 189 1057 263 228 385 1625 511 361 154 118 1531 691 129 196 231 633 178 340 322 633 226 710 172 181 278 481 314 303 922 293 942 485 650 351 312 446 285 253 1220 448 172 392 772 174 263 511 1101 318 740 432 677 34 269 274 344 542 521 462 285 418 791 540 217 385 630 965 527 140 671 255 194 130 834 304 201 293 223 78 124 864 897 246 251 205 1009 243 262 1616 21 724 335 522 251 280 149 312 277 596 133 313 267 1083 179 292 277 327 581 472 1262 280 369 672 350 232 232 248 923 772 630 276 1069 210 616 328 779 587 715 196 216 466 314 252 151 318 221 539 305 261 318 113 1008 707 225 239 401 289 1154 815 772 1338 673 318 260 275 279 319 86 273 376 202 485 234 317 687 1182 874 239 332 1197 227 364 796 198 368 242 364 335 262 483
Days since peak 18 18 18 14 19 14 16 20 19 13 13 15 18 18 22 19 13 14 19 18 14 18 14 15 26 13 18 12 10 19 14 18 6 18 18 12 19 19 25 19 14 14 18 26 18 18 18 12 18 19 12 33 32 19 17 19 13 18 19 18 19 18 19 21 18 20 18 18 28 18 19 20 18 19 19 18 13 14 18 12 13 13 18 26 19 12 25 18 20 18 18 18 13 18 18 13 12 19 18 18 18 14 20 20 13 19 14 19 16 12 18 13 16 13 27 21 26 28 18 13 18 13 18 18 18 19 13 12 13 6 19 19 13 13 19 14 27 30 20 32 18 13 31 30 18 18 18 14 12 18 18 21 14 20 18 17 18 14 14 18 13 18 12 19 19 32 27 18 19 6 26 13 19 32 17 14 18 18 31 18 18 18 18 13 18 20 18 22 20 17 13 20 28 14 19 14 11 20 12 18 19 17 18 18 18 13 6 26 20 14 18 18 18 26 18 20 13 17 14 12 13 18 3 13 18 18 18 18 25 19 9 18 12 14 18 17 12 19 12 18 21 19 20 28 14 13 19 13 14 14 13 18 19 13 14 20 17 12 12 20 13 18 18 26 16 13 13 13 14 6 17 14 14 18 13 9 18 18 18 19 14 12 13 11 18 31 17 27 19 14 15 19 20 18 13 5 12 12 18 21 18 18 12 19 14 25 6 18 18 17 18 19 26 21 6 18 12 33 18 27 20 19 14 13 12 27 28 18 18 14 14 20 18 13 20 18 17 20 19 14 32 18 18 28 21 18 18 14 14 13 19 12 20 12 6 17
Last total 37690 37801 11959 22580 28914 18942 35124 32798 12452 55239 30683 31189 28524 43636 16063 54352 89898 68114 18155 48082 35995 28126 40082 43406 87287 61321 262373 26374 44663 36412 17798 19253 74247 14406 88967 27759 129621 33885 24133 77008 19800 35815 62871 111597 24795 77031 23627 24569 26510 25740 51202 44425 50660 25052 49830 25253 30142 86477 25084 39303 22612 33178 65793 10364 44754 43455 21975 33838 88485 82978 24339 21673 20730 30901 101404 11526 43546 2367 22369 16990 19279 95083 14513 130617 81795 11743 27672 91651 35363 27048 29932 18870 20917 61624 13384 46869 80238 64373 22205 79849 24151 31870 86747 27906 15968 24265 25441 22217 34735 25375 19796 19495 23074 73832 28629 41070 20878 29760 9960 33029 74059 33164 19177 27080 25060 34235 22321 19471 30624 71152 33479 21842 14574 18973 51339 29740 150559 27274 17562 26905 20438 66606 30195 22811 66818 36401 17711 45805 21707 61705 23833 35104 58222 20579 25720 18889 25413 67976 32315 26065 21129 30750 72971 26819 26616 69447 36888 22887 16904 28782 12524 24934 52326 31873 24053 26435 64950 40872 103063 45616 82544 32516 201744 92881 18889 70042 24682 23175 33587 132333 55099 38667 13372 11667 150301 27342 67247 11182 21401 17009 50747 14133 16588 32318 41330 30612 39846 18977 67106 17850 16531 13405 37409 30532 27990 77687 29492 83449 36942 47416 28182 17268 23254 38547 27900 23591 89071 37156 13776 41867 55987 15635 24444 53881 74587 28498 83429 33484 15001 63132 1720 33493 21571 23914 24746 50216 55387 48538 22120 38609 37808 77072 35960 20401 36303 44444 62188 16509 44480 10361 61103 20705 19081 15690 70178 26675 19054 28975 22896 7761 9568 74913 84409 21522 16996 23341 72733 21009 26352 136154 1577 62690 37504 52295 25485 21420 16370 30668 25252 62797 14342 17901 29830 19197 78189 24479 19867 28646 29089 28585 26632 40566 55422 44071 74650 24903 35052 50763 31369 21862 20670 18193 77408 53382 62901 25657 20913 72555 20670 51751 33224 59320 48138 61982 19882 20261 22680 42903 30096 26587 17113 29077 22382 47555 29082 26326 22867 11455 78101 64301 24650 19736 30862 26297 88970 69440 66991 82867 57031 31301 24627 25274 29352 17957 27706 30232 8729 21899 28365 19463 40151 20902 30322 48578 90463 92683 25092 33866 80436 23438 36918 66264 21755 21099 32385 23936 39458 26441 21134 43665
Last daily increment 137 124 91 106 87 69 319 302 41 522 177 137 142 313 137 185 548 325 79 203 232 171 223 336 603 224 1499 146 242 206 40 82 331 80 448 185 829 210 150 367 58 49 293 497 222 363 164 66 135 138 247 68 269 209 206 162 169 212 174 117 59 207 388 11 220 186 137 217 506 498 89 142 142 198 341 30 238 20 19 83 116 548 82 1026 566 49 153 328 168 201 125 104 21 266 44 231 396 332 161 528 70 89 401 57 155 170 36 185 145 148 65 130 54 441 195 297 167 192 43 203 276 116 89 98 188 105 166 153 144 218 30 112 69 113 324 129 358 150 106 128 160 269 160 6 219 189 125 166 128 225 125 214 342 103 167 87 151 281 206 178 99 103 424 137 236 381 248 102 52 168 8 115 217 139 142 252 416 216 639 151 248 153 1240 517 128 272 136 157 296 446 381 201 79 88 568 144 301 82 100 23 269 108 138 232 328 300 221 59 423 111 26 47 75 178 118 526 163 260 76 552 63 118 88 229 154 172 217 246 145 284 340 78 148 353 491 206 351 218 98 251 1 239 40 114 95 485 389 216 23 215 269 329 222 132 200 95 65 91 255 92 255 74 76 78 335 196 122 146 147 71 51 265 515 123 19 135 282 130 122 761 2 388 255 338 147 43 108 250 148 369 100 160 201 107 204 212 121 204 183 175 160 319 345 160 236 124 144 214 198 119 127 36 316 360 434 170 120 501 139 287 166 80 315 305 127 102 189 403 159 173 120 147 136 193 172 234 34 74 259 267 115 98 55 192 463 416 257 325 308 218 164 193 151 123 133 165 46 37 125 113 102 185 273 179 373 566 204 237 370 174 293 377 165 132 44 191 259 132 158 251
Last week 1074 1060 489 767 752 505 1548 1528 276 2567 946 911 920 1661 669 1297 3326 2361 502 1197 1501 1000 1277 1802 3471 1488 9698 822 1555 1260 331 611 2244 572 2535 1043 5652 1104 947 2686 370 509 2016 3360 1134 2085 847 540 717 852 1445 679 1995 1238 1604 903 1007 1551 1082 857 443 1151 2264 156 1405 1091 751 1275 3090 2786 680 755 768 1118 2505 271 1247 89 410 503 682 3077 486 5960 3375 423 901 2364 1023 1253 796 658 271 1873 330 1412 2735 2011 921 3107 562 755 3048 536 697 878 446 906 849 875 580 725 405 2681 1220 1688 875 977 341 1082 1812 749 590 604 938 836 806 877 883 1860 358 722 465 656 2146 724 3104 1014 593 760 797 1769 938 246 1842 1148 742 1334 719 1746 768 1380 2140 568 1064 620 826 1668 1186 923 531 962 2714 878 1061 2568 1323 742 341 1087 196 705 1434 985 875 1173 2395 1311 4047 1065 1926 1036 7757 3141 609 1848 810 864 1468 3283 2086 1136 387 462 4022 947 1796 428 672 243 1584 538 724 1154 1778 1467 1645 438 2576 600 325 339 636 1019 828 3452 993 2107 781 2441 556 696 594 1325 809 916 1507 1422 719 1518 2412 538 883 2262 3450 1167 2196 1260 475 1653 37 1354 351 923 697 2565 2142 1514 262 1392 1674 2120 1486 695 1072 794 848 455 1531 497 1744 431 579 560 2203 1108 693 906 913 329 291 1928 3248 830 342 819 1879 733 686 4957 12 2195 1513 1787 930 365 529 1280 718 2105 535 872 983 654 1659 1008 609 1053 944 1040 958 1968 1931 1084 1858 790 975 1373 1086 713 635 346 1937 2214 2530 993 702 3425 688 1482 1010 1021 2023 1927 690 544 957 2097 792 1004 623 913 736 1214 920 1280 326 418 2009 1640 709 646 398 1036 3056 2860 1725 2242 1627 1156 938 978 911 728 749 1078 292 383 845 702 744 919 1394 1579 2249 3113 1004 1252 2570 928 1514 2521 894 818 502 968 1319 829 993 1459
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-06-292021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-07-162021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-20 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-06-062021-07-162021-10-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192021-10-102021-08-052021-07-162021-10-14 -- --2021-07-152021-09-062021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-10-18 --2021-07-142021-10-18 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012021-07-15 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-242021-06-29 --2021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302021-06-05 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-06 --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-132021-07-122021-07-142021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-172021-07-14 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-10-142021-09-02 -- --2021-07-15 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-14 --2021-07-152021-07-162021-07-15 --2021-07-112021-07-162021-07-152021-07-29 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-29 --2021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-122021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-112021-07-15 -- -- --2021-09-032021-08-172021-07-152021-07-11 -- --2021-08-302021-09-29 --2021-10-182021-07-122021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-08-032021-07-152021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-06-29 -- --2021-06-29 --2021-07-15 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192021-07-122021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-09-012021-08-17 -- --2021-07-162021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-17 -- --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-052021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-06-282021-07-152021-07-142021-07-13 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-182021-07-152021-06-29 --2021-08-182021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-08-172021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-07-172021-07-142021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-10-112021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-162021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 260 276 69 139 152 144 287 379 176 943 127 159 126 202 293 107 478 103 176 68 218 621 4 258 94 72 97 74 160 249 177 72 159 100 115 190 101 227 67 170 203 269 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 142 114 708 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 86 64 202 400 269 137 188 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 15 61 22 105 58 110 128 185 88 171 421 67 56 81 274 123 941 95 63 113 163 229 84 156 152 61 65 146 54 151 87 82 90 203 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 247 316 301 117 707 51 213 80 99 120 41 47 448 169 40 164 72 79 101 274 115 49 31 184 116 384 105 164 84 94 256 621 176 291 228 77 96 322 87 264 158 255 143 118 343 297 114 289 268 37 140 67 213 75 73 49 116 70 253 94 78 123 96 482 167 277 202 118 49 345 86 85 470 128 68 77 92 106 303 198 152 243 70 131 87 77 41 243 339 240 201 428 57 145 101 329 218 85 139 137 116 92 150 92 78 105 131 134 61 226 286 64 79 352 157 313 195 144 73 69 99 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 99 63 117 120 74 138
Low between peaks 83 99 16 11 37 14 2 28 49 59 18 128 82 26 53 51 54 99 179 71 406 33 35 31 75 124 39 190 42 75 22 83 100 2 100 38 34 44 31 68 97 69 35 58 46 22 83 21 92 25 46 129 31 31 54 35 157 19 64 23 227 190 143 16 39 112 49 43 39 41 32 63 142 128 47 26 66 49 49 57 36 30 35 6 25 7 38 23 49 44 80 41 48 199 29 19 32 75 54 199 21 30 40 76 57 27 54 75 27 32 29 18 70 38 41 37 51 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 107 116 74 44 295 20 66 35 43 51 17 14 164 77 11 75 30 36 49 32 24 2 75 54 120 38 54 39 66 174 80 115 88 22 40 111 42 112 50 87 19 108 49 51 68 125 61 17 69 20 21 17 56 25 104 27 35 40 33 189 80 91 64 40 22 58 34 40 149 28 35 42 55 56 65 34 49 36 27 17 118 64 85 96 24 64 24 103 85 30 55 35 37 63 23 33 36 51 61 29 72 125 31 36 87 70 94 86 69 36 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 31 52 41 35 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-01-17 to 2022-01-23

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-01-16 37690 37801 11959 22580 28914 18942 35124 32798 12452 55239 30683 31189 28524 43636 16063 54352 89898 68114 18155 48082 35995 28126 40082 43406 87287 61321 262373 26374 44663 36412 17798 19253 74247 14406 88967 27759 129621 33885 24133 77008 19800 35815 62871 111597 24795 77031 23627 24569 26510 25740 51202 44425 50660 25052 49830 25253 30142 86477 25084 39303 22612 33178 65793 10364 44754 43455 21975 33838 88485 82978 24339 21673 20730 30901 101404 11526 43546 2367 22369 16990 19279 95083 14513 130617 81795 11743 27672 91651 35363 27048 29932 18870 20917 61624 13384 46869 80238 64373 22205 79849 24151 31870 86747 27906 15968 24265 25441 22217 34735 25375 19796 19495 23074 73832 28629 41070 20878 29760 9960 33029 74059 33164 19177 27080 25060 34235 22321 19471 30624 71152 33479 21842 14574 18973 51339 29740 150559 27274 17562 26905 20438 66606 30195 22811 66818 36401 17711 45805 21707 61705 23833 35104 58222 20579 25720 18889 25413 67976 32315 26065 21129 30750 72971 26819 26616 69447 36888 22887 16904 28782 12524 24934 52326 31873 24053 26435 64950 40872 103063 45616 82544 32516 201744 92881 18889 70042 24682 23175 33587 132333 55099 38667 13372 11667 150301 27342 67247 11182 21401 17009 50747 14133 16588 32318 41330 30612 39846 18977 67106 17850 16531 13405 37409 30532 27990 77687 29492 83449 36942 47416 28182 17268 23254 38547 27900 23591 89071 37156 13776 41867 55987 15635 24444 53881 74587 28498 83429 33484 15001 63132 1720 33493 21571 23914 24746 50216 55387 48538 22120 38609 37808 77072 35960 20401 36303 44444 62188 16509 44480 10361 61103 20705 19081 15690 70178 26675 19054 28975 22896 7761 9568 74913 84409 21522 16996 23341 72733 21009 26352 136154 1577 62690 37504 52295 25485 21420 16370 30668 25252 62797 14342 17901 29830 19197 78189 24479 19867 28646 29089 28585 26632 40566 55422 44071 74650 24903 35052 50763 31369 21862 20670 18193 77408 53382 62901 25657 20913 72555 20670 51751 33224 59320 48138 61982 19882 20261 22680 42903 30096 26587 17113 29077 22382 47555 29082 26326 22867 11455 78101 64301 24650 19736 30862 26297 88970 69440 66991 82867 57031 31301 24627 25274 29352 17957 27706 30232 8729 21899 28365 19463 40151 20902 30322 48578 90463 92683 25092 33866 80436 23438 36918 66264 21755 21099 32385 23936 39458 26441 21134 43665
2022-01-17 38010 38110 12060 22800 29600 19100 35430 33090 12540 55730 30870 31420 28710 43960 16200 54810 90400 69740 18210 48290 36290 28350 40360 43750 88020 61660 266700 26580 45490 37320 17850 19670 76000 14510 89520 27990 130800 33980 24320 77200 19940 35890 63020 111900 24970 77570 23810 24680 26580 26350 51330 44510 51680 25340 50680 25480 30350 86840 25320 39570 22690 33450 66280 10390 45080 43800 22140 34110 89210 83670 24550 21820 20790 31170 101700 11550 43820 2388 22420 17160 19610 95700 14610 132700 83300 12000 27750 92050 35540 27530 30060 19210 20960 63020 13480 47290 82050 64830 22380 81460 24350 32080 87150 28090 16100 24430 25560 22390 34880 25810 19940 19650 23130 75490 29030 41450 21190 29850 10040 33200 74490 33280 19230 27150 25390 34480 22490 19740 30910 71690 33550 22000 14850 19440 52320 29880 151500 27700 17690 26970 20620 67050 30440 22850 66960 36700 18050 46570 21880 61990 23900 35680 58680 20710 26240 19160 25590 68440 32960 26130 21290 31040 73540 27020 26820 70790 37190 23080 17040 29010 12580 25200 52460 32490 24240 26670 66100 41100 105200 45950 84230 32770 205400 94510 19020 70320 24870 23350 33870 133300 55920 38760 13450 11860 151500 27840 67610 11210 21550 17040 50890 14290 16730 32410 41760 30880 40760 19100 68370 17970 16560 13550 37640 30750 28190 78870 29710 83640 37030 47910 28380 17620 23430 38860 28090 23670 89280 37930 13910 42530 57180 15760 24640 54570 76160 28730 84950 33780 15290 63580 1734 33940 21620 24340 24960 50920 56180 48870 22170 39360 38290 77640 36780 20560 36500 44550 62310 16640 44590 10530 62530 20830 19460 15790 70750 27200 19110 29200 23070 7825 9594 75110 85770 21670 17040 23690 73290 21180 26470 139000 1587 63200 37990 52690 25920 21570 16480 30910 25440 63250 14450 18080 30060 19730 78760 24660 20210 28860 29340 29040 26860 41260 55800 44270 74990 25050 35290 51160 31630 22280 20820 18240 77790 54750 63810 25870 21060 73850 20820 52110 33450 59430 48550 62460 20230 20390 22880 43420 30290 26790 17240 29300 22510 47770 29160 26540 22910 11570 78600 64910 25030 19840 30930 26520 89740 70730 67420 84270 57190 31540 24820 25450 29550 18190 27770 30460 8772 22730 28600 19610 40250 21080 30790 49470 91170 93350 25270 33980 80670 23620 37210 67640 22090 21260 32450 24130 39580 27110 21490 43800
2022-01-18 38970 39070 12230 23410 30030 19580 36010 33660 12830 56530 31240 32030 29120 44540 16500 55130 90800 70710 18430 48610 36870 28830 40950 44330 89680 62010 269500 27130 46040 37900 17910 19970 77080 14630 90790 28510 131700 34180 24680 77610 20040 36300 63340 112400 25110 78050 24170 24880 26750 26730 51670 45000 52390 25580 51260 26020 30800 87480 25750 40490 22820 34120 67370 10430 45870 44050 22450 34680 91000 85420 25240 22100 20830 31830 102600 11660 44540 2441 22740 17710 19840 96900 14830 134100 84330 12180 27890 92670 35770 27870 30240 19450 21020 63950 13760 48760 83230 65880 22680 82510 25050 32730 87480 28810 16310 24720 25800 22680 35110 26110 20380 19950 23400 76490 29310 42320 21390 29960 10230 33370 75170 33460 19320 27420 25640 35310 22840 19950 31840 73360 33680 22350 15040 19750 53000 30070 155100 27990 17930 27120 20980 67850 30630 22940 67380 37510 18260 47140 22270 62540 24070 36100 59700 21040 26610 19360 25980 68840 33380 26250 21770 31990 74780 27540 27190 71620 37880 23530 17580 29480 12710 25430 52770 32860 24620 27060 66850 41320 106600 47020 85340 33420 207800 95610 19320 70910 25330 23690 34430 136300 56470 38930 13520 11990 152200 28240 68070 11260 21850 17210 51170 14510 16980 32550 42470 31270 41330 19530 69230 18220 16700 14110 38560 31250 28720 79740 30150 84240 37400 48760 29110 17860 24000 39560 28240 23760 90280 38470 14150 42990 57960 16060 25060 55140 77200 29220 85880 34440 15460 64860 1807 34300 21850 24650 25620 51600 56780 49580 22440 39890 38710 78080 37300 20910 36710 45060 63020 16980 44740 10630 63410 20930 19700 15970 72220 27550 19190 29400 23390 7933 9665 75710 86710 21920 17270 23910 75030 21600 26620 140900 1636 64380 38370 53530 26230 22170 16710 31350 25930 64190 14630 18240 30570 20090 80950 24850 20410 29320 30010 29370 27390 41730 56500 44560 75810 25240 35480 52400 32220 22570 21210 18440 78330 55630 64510 26310 21380 74720 21160 52440 34010 59980 49420 63770 20450 20500 23200 43860 30820 27160 17450 29860 22630 48080 29320 26730 23150 11650 78920 65260 25300 19990 31030 26960 91550 71640 67750 85230 57610 32030 25220 25740 29990 18410 27920 30950 8836 23270 29280 19930 40670 21390 31130 50110 93380 94700 25560 34080 81380 23940 37720 68530 22350 21550 32760 24450 39710 27530 21750 44060
2022-01-19 39640 39720 12360 23830 30320 19910 36460 34090 13020 57170 31520 32470 29420 44990 16710 55390 91110 71510 18560 48870 37310 29190 41390 44800 90890 62270 271900 27510 46460 38340 17970 20180 77880 14750 91710 28890 132700 34320 24960 77920 20130 36540 63570 112700 25250 78510 24440 25030 26860 27020 51900 45290 52970 25820 51700 26400 31130 87970 26080 41090 22930 34600 68170 10460 46430 44290 22690 35100 92280 86650 25700 22310 20870 32310 103200 11720 45050 2478 22920 18080 20030 97800 14990 135500 85220 12310 28000 93190 35970 28190 30390 19640 21080 64620 13960 49750 84130 66640 22910 83340 25510 33170 87730 29280 16470 24950 25990 22910 35290 26350 20690 20180 23560 77280 29560 42960 21600 30040 10370 33550 75740 33610 19380 27580 25840 35860 23100 20120 32470 74500 33780 22600 15190 19960 53540 30230 157500 28220 18120 27220 21250 68480 30800 23000 67700 38080 18460 47540 22560 62960 24180 36450 60440 21280 26900 19530 26260 69190 33700 26340 22100 32630 75710 27910 27470 72340 38380 23870 17940 29830 12810 25620 52990 33140 24910 27360 67450 41500 107700 47740 86160 33880 209900 96490 19530 71340 25660 23940 34860 138300 56980 39060 13580 12110 152800 28510 68480 11290 22070 17310 51370 14700 17180 32650 43030 31600 41810 19820 69910 18410 16790 14480 39160 31610 29090 80500 30490 84630 37620 49430 29600 18070 24380 40080 28380 23830 90860 38880 14330 43370 58600 16270 25360 55610 78050 29580 86590 34930 15590 65750 1852 34590 21990 24880 26070 52210 57270 50120 22600 40270 39060 78430 37680 21170 36890 45360 63420 17220 44850 10740 64070 21020 19890 16120 73270 27830 19250 29580 23640 8018 9713 76090 87510 22130 17410 24100 76220 21900 26750 142400 1667 65230 38690 54150 26450 22560 16880 31680 26270 64890 14780 18400 30940 20350 82380 25030 20580 29650 30480 29640 27780 42170 57050 44810 76390 25410 35660 53230 32650 22800 21490 18550 78790 56380 65120 26640 21610 75480 21410 52710 34410 60300 50070 64690 20640 20580 23460 44260 31180 27450 17620 30250 22750 48350 29430 26930 23290 11720 79110 65490 25490 20110 31120 27290 92870 72350 68040 85960 57890 32400 25530 25970 30320 18600 28020 31320 8890 23720 29750 20170 40920 21630 31430 50570 94870 95720 25790 34180 81840 24190 38120 69220 22560 21780 32940 24700 39820 27840 21980 44250
2022-01-20 40150 40220 12480 24160 30530 20170 36830 34440 13160 57720 31760 32810 29670 45380 16890 55770 91230 72100 18650 49090 37680 29480 41750 45200 91870 62750 274000 27810 46830 38650 18020 20320 78500 14850 92460 29200 133400 34430 25190 78170 20220 36690 63760 113000 25400 78950 24670 25160 26950 27230 52070 45470 53390 26040 52080 26720 31390 88370 26360 41550 23010 34980 68820 10480 46890 44660 22890 35450 93310 87630 26050 22490 20910 32690 103600 11770 45440 2507 23030 18360 20160 98600 15120 136900 85890 12400 28090 93610 36140 28520 30520 19780 21120 65100 14110 50500 84750 67270 23110 84150 25860 33510 87920 29620 16620 25150 26130 23110 35440 26540 20920 20380 23660 77890 29810 43470 21750 30120 10490 33750 76220 33730 19430 27690 26020 36280 23310 20280 32940 75380 33860 22810 15290 20120 54030 30370 159200 28470 18280 27290 21470 69000 30940 23040 67960 38530 18610 47840 22790 63290 24270 36700 61050 21460 27160 19640 26490 69500 33950 26420 22350 33110 76460 28210 27710 72940 38780 24130 18190 30130 12880 25760 53140 33360 25150 27630 68030 41760 108500 48290 86780 34250 211500 97160 19710 71670 25920 24160 35210 139800 57380 39160 13680 12200 152800 28700 68840 11330 22260 17370 51510 14870 17350 32740 43500 31890 42240 20030 70440 18560 16850 14750 39590 31900 29390 81120 30770 84910 37770 50000 29950 18200 24670 40500 28550 23900 91240 39190 14490 43650 59070 16440 25620 56000 78840 29880 87160 35330 15700 66440 1884 34850 22080 25070 26410 52670 57650 50560 22700 40550 39360 78950 38060 21380 37170 45550 63670 17400 44950 10830 64560 21200 20040 16240 74110 28060 19310 29800 23850 8091 9748 76360 88210 22300 17500 24260 77120 22140 26870 143500 1688 65920 38950 54660 26640 22840 17020 31970 26540 65470 14900 18560 31250 20520 83420 25190 20710 29930 30840 29840 28090 42540 57500 45020 76840 25560 35770 53870 33000 22950 21700 18630 79190 56900 65690 26910 21800 76200 21610 52950 34730 60510 50610 65410 20770 20750 23690 44630 31470 27690 17760 30570 22870 48570 29510 27130 23380 11770 79310 65720 25640 20220 31190 27570 93950 73130 68400 86430 58110 32700 25780 26160 30590 18770 28100 31620 8937 24100 30110 20360 41090 21840 31680 50950 96010 96560 25990 34270 82190 24400 38460 69930 22730 21970 33060 24920 39920 28050 22170 44400
2022-01-21 40630 40690 12590 24480 30710 20410 37190 34780 13300 58250 31980 33120 29900 45760 17050 55940 91540 72560 18740 49300 38030 29750 42100 45580 92800 62920 275400 28090 47080 38900 18060 20430 78960 14960 93160 29490 134100 34530 25420 78410 20290 36830 63930 113300 25540 79220 24890 25280 27030 27390 52240 45630 53740 26230 52330 27010 31650 88750 26630 41960 23100 35340 69430 10500 47320 44840 23090 35790 94270 88550 26370 22660 20950 33040 104000 11810 45810 2535 23130 18610 20280 99400 15250 137800 86460 12490 28170 94020 36310 28740 30640 19920 21160 65480 14250 51180 85310 67850 23310 84680 26190 33830 88100 29930 16760 25330 26270 23310 35590 26710 21140 20560 23750 78380 29980 43960 21890 30190 10600 33990 76680 33850 19470 27800 26160 36670 23510 20420 33370 76200 33930 23010 15380 20250 54500 30510 160800 28640 18430 27370 21680 69490 31160 23090 68210 38940 18710 48120 23010 63600 24340 36920 61630 21640 27360 19740 26710 69700 34150 26490 22580 33570 77190 28500 27950 73420 39160 24390 18420 30400 12960 25870 53290 33560 25380 27890 68550 42050 109200 48790 87260 34590 212700 97710 19870 71980 26170 24370 35540 141300 57700 39260 13720 12270 153200 28860 69190 11360 22440 17420 51640 15030 17510 32830 43970 32170 42570 20220 70920 18710 16900 14990 39990 32180 29660 81810 31040 85160 37900 50550 30280 18380 24930 40890 28760 23970 91570 39450 14640 43920 59650 16610 25860 56390 79650 30160 87620 35710 15790 67090 1912 35070 22150 25280 26730 53060 58020 50980 22790 40780 39640 79200 38430 21580 37300 45720 63870 17580 45050 10930 64940 21260 20160 16360 74900 28250 19360 29930 24050 8161 9781 76610 88880 22470 17570 24400 77960 22370 26980 144400 1708 66580 39160 55150 26800 23100 17150 32240 26800 66020 15020 18680 31540 20660 84370 25360 20810 30190 31180 30020 28380 42950 57940 45220 77260 25700 36020 54460 33330 23080 21900 18700 79570 57290 66030 27170 21980 76930 21810 53170 35030 60690 51130 66080 20890 20830 23910 45010 31730 27920 17900 30870 22980 48780 29600 27330 23450 11820 79450 65720 25780 20320 31260 27830 94960 73590 68870 86800 58310 32990 26010 26360 30840 18800 28170 31900 8984 24480 30450 20550 41230 22040 31890 51270 97050 97370 26180 34360 82510 24600 38790 70350 22870 22160 33170 25140 40020 28210 22360 44550
2022-01-22 41020 41070 12690 24730 30800 20600 37510 35090 13400 58750 32180 33390 30110 46100 17200 55970 91540 72830 18800 49500 38350 29990 42400 45930 93610 62980 276500 28320 47270 39040 18100 20490 79220 15060 93780 29750 134500 34620 25620 78610 20340 36920 64090 113500 25690 79380 25080 25400 27090 27460 52370 45740 53990 26360 52450 27270 31870 89090 26870 42290 23170 35640 69960 10520 47680 44950 23260 36080 95090 89330 26630 22820 20990 33350 104300 11840 46120 2558 23200 18820 20360 100100 15350 138500 86850 12520 28250 94400 36470 28910 30760 20000 21200 65690 14360 51740 85640 68360 23490 85050 26450 34080 88100 30170 16890 25510 26390 23480 35730 26820 21310 20720 23800 78690 30150 44380 21990 30260 10690 34070 77100 33960 19510 27870 26260 36980 23690 20520 33710 76870 33990 23190 15440 20320 54740 30640 162000 28750 18560 27430 21870 69930 31260 23120 68430 39300 18810 48190 23200 63880 24410 37060 62140 21780 27480 19800 26900 69840 34290 26560 22760 33930 77820 28740 28150 73680 39490 24610 18600 30650 13020 25940 53400 33610 25570 28120 68780 42120 109700 49200 87430 34880 213500 98040 20010 72250 26390 24560 35840 142400 57970 39350 13740 12330 153200 28980 69520 11390 22600 17450 51760 15180 17650 32910 44400 32440 42780 20380 71190 18830 16940 15180 40290 32420 29900 82180 31280 85360 37990 51040 30540 18490 25150 41240 28830 24040 91790 39630 14780 44080 59960 16750 26070 56680 80030 30410 87830 36040 15840 67620 1933 35190 22200 25350 26990 53450 58270 51350 22850 40950 39800 79360 38550 21750 37380 45830 64000 17720 45140 10990 65120 21280 20230 16470 75570 28390 19410 30000 24240 8226 9808 76800 89230 22630 17620 24490 78630 22570 27090 145000 1722 67140 39360 55580 26900 23300 17270 32490 27010 66510 15130 18780 31790 20730 85110 25520 20870 30430 31470 30130 28630 43200 58340 45400 77610 25840 36130 54940 33610 23160 22070 18740 79930 57560 66320 27400 22140 77320 21970 53310 35290 60820 51580 66640 20970 20840 24130 45260 31950 28130 18030 31120 23090 48980 29670 27540 23500 11840 79450 65720 25850 20420 31320 28070 95830 73910 68920 86900 58470 33250 26220 26530 31050 18870 28230 32150 9027 24700 30720 20710 41330 22220 32060 51370 97900 98080 26360 34450 82770 24790 39090 70610 22970 22330 33250 25340 40120 28330 22470 44670
2022-01-23 41380 41420 12790 24980 30940 20780 37820 35380 13500 59220 32380 33640 30310 46430 17340 56130 91970 73310 18860 49680 38650 30220 42680 46270 94380 63150 278200 28540 47560 39320 18150 20610 79670 15150 94350 29990 135400 34700 25810 78810 20400 36990 64240 113800 25840 79750 25270 25500 27150 27630 52500 45820 54340 26540 52690 27510 32080 89420 27110 42590 23240 35930 70460 10540 48030 45070 23420 36360 95870 90070 26860 22970 21030 33640 104500 11870 46410 2579 23250 19010 20480 100700 15460 139600 87460 12590 28320 94760 36620 29110 30880 20120 21230 66050 14460 52240 86180 68850 23660 85630 26680 34310 88390 30380 17020 25670 26510 23650 35860 27000 21480 20880 23850 79190 30320 44780 22140 30330 10780 34220 77510 34060 19550 27940 26450 37260 23870 20670 34030 77490 34050 23360 15520 20470 55100 30770 163100 28910 18690 27480 22050 70350 31400 23150 68640 39620 18940 48440 23380 64140 24470 37280 62610 21920 27680 19900 27090 70130 34530 26620 22940 34270 78420 28970 28360 74050 39800 24810 18760 30890 13080 26050 53510 33760 25760 28350 69190 42290 110400 49580 87750 35150 215000 98620 20150 72500 26590 24730 36120 143500 58350 39430 13800 12410 153500 29110 69840 11420 22750 17480 51860 15330 17790 32990 44820 32700 43070 20520 71590 18960 16980 15350 40570 32650 30110 82750 31510 85540 38070 51520 30770 18610 25350 41560 28930 24110 91970 39920 14910 44360 60390 16880 26280 57070 80610 30650 88130 36350 15940 68110 1950 35400 22250 25470 27230 53960 58670 51700 22900 41190 40040 79650 38780 21920 37530 45920 64100 17860 45230 11090 65480 21340 20330 16580 76200 28590 19460 30130 24410 8289 9833 76980 89790 22780 17660 24620 79260 22760 27200 145900 1734 67680 39620 55990 27070 23470 17380 32730 27220 66980 15240 18920 32030 20870 85770 25680 20990 30650 31740 30320 28870 43540 58720 45580 77940 25980 36240 55390 33880 23290 22220 18780 80280 58030 66750 27620 22300 77910 22130 53590 35530 60920 52010 67160 21110 20920 24340 45600 32150 28330 18150 31360 23210 49170 29730 27740 23540 11910 79550 65780 25970 20520 31380 28290 96660 74340 69110 87280 58630 33490 26430 26710 31250 19000 28280 32390 9070 24730 30980 20870 41420 22400 32320 51660 98680 98760 26540 34540 83000 24970 39390 71050 23140 22490 33320 25530 40210 28520 22630 44790

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-01-17 to 2022-01-23

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-01-16 37690 37801 11959 22580 28914 18942 35124 32798 12452 55239 30683 31189 28524 43636 16063 54352 89898 68114 18155 48082 35995 28126 40082 43406 87287 61321 262373 26374 44663 36412 17798 19253 74247 14406 88967 27759 129621 33885 24133 77008 19800 35815 62871 111597 24795 77031 23627 24569 26510 25740 51202 44425 50660 25052 49830 25253 30142 86477 25084 39303 22612 33178 65793 10364 44754 43455 21975 33838 88485 82978 24339 21673 20730 30901 101404 11526 43546 2367 22369 16990 19279 95083 14513 130617 81795 11743 27672 91651 35363 27048 29932 18870 20917 61624 13384 46869 80238 64373 22205 79849 24151 31870 86747 27906 15968 24265 25441 22217 34735 25375 19796 19495 23074 73832 28629 41070 20878 29760 9960 33029 74059 33164 19177 27080 25060 34235 22321 19471 30624 71152 33479 21842 14574 18973 51339 29740 150559 27274 17562 26905 20438 66606 30195 22811 66818 36401 17711 45805 21707 61705 23833 35104 58222 20579 25720 18889 25413 67976 32315 26065 21129 30750 72971 26819 26616 69447 36888 22887 16904 28782 12524 24934 52326 31873 24053 26435 64950 40872 103063 45616 82544 32516 201744 92881 18889 70042 24682 23175 33587 132333 55099 38667 13372 11667 150301 27342 67247 11182 21401 17009 50747 14133 16588 32318 41330 30612 39846 18977 67106 17850 16531 13405 37409 30532 27990 77687 29492 83449 36942 47416 28182 17268 23254 38547 27900 23591 89071 37156 13776 41867 55987 15635 24444 53881 74587 28498 83429 33484 15001 63132 1720 33493 21571 23914 24746 50216 55387 48538 22120 38609 37808 77072 35960 20401 36303 44444 62188 16509 44480 10361 61103 20705 19081 15690 70178 26675 19054 28975 22896 7761 9568 74913 84409 21522 16996 23341 72733 21009 26352 136154 1577 62690 37504 52295 25485 21420 16370 30668 25252 62797 14342 17901 29830 19197 78189 24479 19867 28646 29089 28585 26632 40566 55422 44071 74650 24903 35052 50763 31369 21862 20670 18193 77408 53382 62901 25657 20913 72555 20670 51751 33224 59320 48138 61982 19882 20261 22680 42903 30096 26587 17113 29077 22382 47555 29082 26326 22867 11455 78101 64301 24650 19736 30862 26297 88970 69440 66991 82867 57031 31301 24627 25274 29352 17957 27706 30232 8729 21899 28365 19463 40151 20902 30322 48578 90463 92683 25092 33866 80436 23438 36918 66264 21755 21099 32385 23936 39458 26441 21134 43665
2022-01-17 38100 38090 12060 22810 29180 19140 35440 33100 12560 55770 30890 31420 28720 44060 16200 54630 90550 68840 18300 48310 36280 28370 40360 43810 88040 61600 264900 26640 45170 36790 17870 19440 74980 14510 89540 28020 130900 34160 24370 77560 19860 36000 63310 112400 24970 77520 23870 24660 26690 26020 51600 44660 51260 25320 50220 25540 30350 86790 25310 39570 22710 33450 66390 10410 45100 43670 22150 34110 89580 83810 24600 21840 20890 31240 102100 11610 43840 2388 22580 17160 19490 95900 14610 132100 82810 11860 27860 92040 35550 27370 30070 19040 20980 62350 13480 47300 81090 64820 22380 80780 24360 32100 87340 28130 16110 24440 25540 22440 34870 25600 19980 19650 23240 74640 28890 41460 21090 30020 10050 33200 74420 33300 19300 27250 25280 34500 22510 19650 30890 71700 33590 22050 14690 19200 51880 29900 151700 27540 17690 27070 20640 66990 30350 22880 67210 36780 17910 46240 21900 62070 24000 35410 58720 20710 26030 19040 25600 68340 32640 26260 21350 31030 73590 27040 26870 70130 37180 23100 17040 29000 12570 25080 52610 32150 24270 26680 65550 41130 104200 46060 83110 32790 203800 93880 19040 70390 24920 23350 33880 133400 55620 38900 13440 11810 151200 27610 67570 11270 21550 17090 51130 14250 16730 32570 41680 30900 40310 19110 67820 17980 16620 13550 37640 30760 28200 78520 29700 83940 37140 47940 28370 17440 23430 38840 28060 23840 89580 37550 13920 42260 56550 15760 24670 54410 75430 28800 84110 33790 15150 63700 1733 33770 21690 24120 25020 50750 55920 48870 22270 39090 38180 77560 36370 20590 36480 44720 62500 16650 44750 10470 61930 20770 19250 15800 70900 26970 19210 29150 23130 7832 9640 75500 85270 21700 17150 23530 73290 21230 26480 137400 1588 63250 37860 52770 25710 21590 16510 30980 25440 63350 14450 18060 30070 19420 78880 24730 20030 28890 29400 28840 26860 41010 55900 44240 74990 25040 35260 51310 31690 22070 20850 18310 77870 54080 63490 25910 21080 73350 20830 52080 33460 59630 48640 62750 20070 20360 22890 43310 30290 26840 17240 29300 22510 47750 29280 26560 22980 11550 78570 64810 24850 19840 30950 26520 89800 70190 67320 83380 57520 31610 24830 25510 29620 18140 27890 30460 8790 22090 28600 19620 40400 21090 30660 49050 91360 93360 25290 34170 81080 23640 37230 67010 21970 21290 32550 24140 39780 26700 21350 44050
2022-01-18 38780 38610 12170 23170 29490 19480 35800 33430 12720 56360 31130 31770 28970 44530 16370 54940 91300 69810 18530 48650 36660 28690 40720 44320 89010 61940 267700 27030 45690 37320 17990 19660 75830 14630 90370 28380 132300 34530 24630 78260 19940 36330 63860 113300 25140 77980 24150 24840 26900 26350 52190 45060 51890 25550 50600 25960 30630 87320 25640 40010 22860 33830 67100 10500 45610 43880 22410 34460 90860 85070 25050 22030 21040 31740 103100 11740 44230 2415 22940 17430 19700 96800 14740 133700 83840 12000 28090 92580 35780 27700 30250 19260 21100 63100 13620 48030 82210 65450 22600 81830 24730 32510 88100 28520 16260 24640 25730 22690 35080 25840 20220 19850 23510 75540 29170 41990 21290 30260 10190 33390 74880 33510 19440 27510 25510 34960 22730 19830 31320 72610 33820 22290 14840 19480 52570 30130 153600 27820 17860 27290 20910 67490 30540 23010 67710 37370 18100 46630 22180 62490 24210 35770 59330 20890 26400 19210 25840 68710 32980 26460 21710 31500 74390 27350 27170 70810 37570 23440 17280 29310 12680 25280 52970 32410 24570 26960 66270 41410 105600 46810 83670 33160 206100 94910 19210 70820 25290 23570 34200 135200 56160 39180 13510 11950 152500 27960 67980 11360 21740 17220 51540 14360 16900 32880 42080 31210 40930 19340 68560 18140 16770 13810 38060 31050 28490 79410 30000 84590 37450 48530 28730 17640 23720 39280 28240 24080 90400 37990 14080 42720 57310 15950 24960 54970 76520 29150 84810 34230 15320 64630 1760 34100 21870 24410 25490 51300 56520 49340 22550 39600 38590 78070 36890 20850 36670 45180 63040 16880 45030 10600 62740 20840 19440 15930 72020 27300 19390 29360 23390 7917 9730 76280 86160 21950 17400 23730 74180 21550 26640 139200 1609 64090 38240 53420 25960 21910 16670 31310 25720 64110 14590 18230 30380 19690 80100 24960 20200 29160 29870 29130 27180 41580 56420 44490 75510 25220 35490 52210 32140 22300 21090 18520 78610 54890 64130 26270 21310 74410 21030 52420 33780 60150 49330 63620 20290 20470 23080 43780 30560 27130 17380 29620 22650 48000 29520 26810 23160 11650 79130 65370 25040 19980 31120 26800 91120 71080 67700 83980 58230 32020 25070 25740 29910 18340 28100 30760 8868 22340 28960 19830 40790 21290 30980 49510 92910 94220 25500 34460 82020 23870 37580 67910 22190 21540 32840 24370 40130 27040 21610 44590
2022-01-19 39310 39020 12270 23470 29740 19750 36120 33720 12870 56890 31340 32050 29180 44920 16510 55230 91980 70610 18720 48940 36990 28970 41030 44750 89830 62170 270100 27350 46080 37740 18100 19840 76510 14740 91060 28670 133500 34830 24850 78870 20030 36570 64290 114100 25300 78350 24390 24980 27080 26620 52660 45370 52450 25790 50930 26300 30880 87720 25920 40350 22980 34140 67690 10570 46020 44090 22620 34750 91890 86080 25410 22210 21170 32160 103800 11850 44560 2437 23210 17650 19870 97500 14860 135100 84740 12110 28280 93030 35970 27960 30400 19450 21200 63700 13740 48600 83130 65970 22800 82700 25010 32830 88750 28820 16390 24820 25890 22900 35270 26050 20430 20010 23710 76280 29430 42420 21480 30450 10310 33580 75300 33690 19560 27710 25720 35330 22920 20010 31660 73350 34000 22500 14970 19710 53170 30330 155100 28070 18010 27470 21150 67920 30720 23110 68140 37830 18280 46970 22410 62870 24400 36080 59850 21040 26710 19360 26040 69030 33280 26660 21980 31890 75050 27610 27430 71430 37890 23710 17470 29570 12760 25460 53290 32660 24830 27210 66880 41640 106700 47400 84140 33450 208200 95780 19360 71200 25570 23760 34490 136600 56660 39410 13570 12070 153700 28210 68340 11440 21910 17320 51890 14460 17050 33140 42440 31490 41430 19520 69170 18270 16890 14010 38380 31300 28720 80160 30270 85150 37690 49040 29000 17810 23950 39650 28400 24300 91020 38370 14230 43130 57950 16110 25200 55460 77440 29430 85420 34570 15450 65370 1780 34390 22020 24650 25870 51770 57050 49730 22760 39990 38940 78490 37320 21060 36860 45530 63440 17060 45290 10730 63390 20910 19600 16040 72940 27570 19530 29530 23610 7992 9810 76910 86960 22170 17590 23920 74890 21820 26780 140800 1625 64780 38560 53970 26170 22160 16800 31600 25940 64740 14710 18400 30640 19900 81040 25160 20350 29410 30250 29380 27460 42090 56870 44710 75930 25370 35700 52920 32520 22490 21270 18680 79190 55560 64710 26570 21510 75340 21200 52660 34050 60550 49910 64310 20470 20560 23250 44190 30770 27380 17510 29870 22780 48240 29720 27050 23300 11750 79590 65820 25210 20100 31260 27050 92210 71820 68030 84490 58780 32350 25290 25930 30170 18500 28270 31020 8937 22540 29240 20000 41080 21460 31280 49890 94130 94960 25690 34720 82800 24060 37890 68610 22390 21760 33060 24570 40420 27310 21840 45020
2022-01-20 39780 39390 12360 23730 29970 19990 36410 33990 12970 57380 31530 32300 29380 45290 16640 55510 92480 71290 18870 49190 37290 29220 41320 45150 90580 62450 272200 27630 46460 38090 18180 20010 77150 14850 91680 28940 134700 35100 25070 79400 20090 36780 64650 114800 25450 78710 24600 25100 27240 26850 53090 45620 52930 26020 51260 26610 31090 88080 26180 40640 23090 34410 68230 10630 46400 44280 22810 35030 92800 86970 25710 22370 21290 32530 104500 11940 44850 2457 23440 17830 20030 98300 14960 136500 85530 12220 28470 93530 36150 28230 30550 19610 21280 64230 13850 49090 83890 66450 22980 83540 25250 33110 89320 29080 16520 24990 26020 23080 35440 26240 20600 20170 23890 76940 29670 42830 21650 30650 10410 33760 75690 33840 19670 27890 25920 35640 23090 20170 31940 73990 34150 22680 15080 19910 53710 30510 156400 28320 18140 27640 21360 68300 30870 23200 68560 38230 18450 47260 22620 63190 24560 36350 60340 21180 27000 19490 26220 69320 33550 26830 22210 32210 75680 27840 27660 72010 38190 23960 17620 29820 12830 25600 53580 32850 25050 27440 67450 41880 107700 47910 84590 33730 209800 96530 19490 71530 25830 23940 34750 137800 57090 39630 13640 12170 154400 28410 68670 11520 22070 17400 52210 14550 17190 33390 42760 31750 41890 19680 69730 18380 16990 14170 38650 31530 28950 80860 30500 85650 37890 49510 29240 17950 24140 39980 28550 24500 91550 38720 14370 43490 58490 16260 25430 55860 78290 29680 85960 34890 15580 66020 1795 34660 22140 24860 26190 52220 57540 50100 22930 40320 39270 78940 37710 21250 37060 45830 63760 17220 45540 10840 63970 20970 19750 16150 73760 27830 19670 29720 23810 8061 9870 77480 87720 22350 17750 24090 75510 22060 26910 142100 1638 65400 38840 54460 26380 22370 16920 31860 26130 65320 14820 18560 30880 20080 81820 25350 20480 29630 30590 29610 27700 42540 57280 44930 76300 25520 35850 53530 32860 22670 21430 18820 79710 56150 65230 26840 21690 76210 21350 52870 34300 60890 50430 64930 20630 20680 23420 44580 30970 27600 17630 30120 22900 48470 29890 27270 23420 11840 80020 66220 25350 20210 31370 27270 93190 72550 68370 84940 59290 32660 25490 26110 30390 18660 28420 31260 9003 22710 29500 20170 41340 21620 31550 50230 95170 95640 25850 34930 83500 24250 38170 69290 22570 21950 33260 24770 40700 27540 22040 45410
2022-01-21 40350 39870 12460 23970 30180 20200 36690 34250 13130 57850 31720 32540 29590 45720 16790 55730 93180 71970 19010 49440 37590 29450 41590 45610 91290 62630 274300 27880 46880 38530 18260 20160 77880 14960 92490 29260 136000 35400 25300 80070 20150 36960 65140 115700 25620 78980 24830 25220 27420 27090 53570 45850 53370 26210 51610 26900 31300 88500 26420 40910 23190 34670 68900 10670 46830 44470 23000 35330 93810 87810 25990 22570 21440 32870 105600 12020 45130 2475 23630 18000 20220 99100 15060 137700 86390 12320 28640 93900 36320 28530 30680 19800 21350 64810 13940 49530 84690 66970 23160 84340 25520 33370 89970 29300 16660 25160 26140 23260 35580 26430 20760 20340 24080 77640 29940 43290 21840 30860 10510 33930 76040 33990 19780 28110 26110 35930 23260 20330 32290 74590 34280 22900 15180 20110 54230 30680 157900 28550 18270 27820 21570 68630 31080 23300 68920 38710 18600 47520 22820 63500 24730 36630 60890 21310 27270 19640 26430 69560 33800 27010 22470 32590 76400 28070 27900 72640 38560 24240 17750 30060 12920 25750 53960 33060 25270 27660 67990 42100 108800 48370 85120 34030 211700 97350 19630 71830 26120 24110 35000 139300 57510 39840 13690 12290 155600 28640 68990 11600 22220 17470 52490 14630 17330 33640 43060 32010 42290 19820 70380 18510 17090 14320 38890 31750 29190 81690 30770 86280 38080 49960 29540 18130 24330 40350 28720 24690 92020 39040 14500 43840 59280 16400 25690 56340 79240 29940 86620 35290 15720 66610 1809 34930 22240 25100 26490 52620 58010 50500 23090 40730 39630 79340 38090 21430 37240 46100 64030 17410 45780 10950 64630 21020 19910 16260 74520 28140 19790 29900 24040 8127 9940 78090 88400 22580 17890 24250 76080 22280 27040 143500 1649 65990 39110 54930 26570 22620 17060 32140 26400 65860 14930 18740 31110 20300 82530 25550 20620 29860 30900 29830 27930 43020 57710 45120 76650 25670 36090 54080 33170 22870 21570 18990 80330 56730 65740 27100 21860 77050 21510 53080 34570 61190 50920 65590 20790 20770 23570 45010 31240 27870 17750 30400 23060 48670 30080 27520 23520 11920 80510 66560 25520 20310 31480 27520 94100 73220 68670 85460 59870 32940 25690 26300 30660 18750 28620 31480 9066 22990 29800 20360 41630 21800 31820 50540 96120 96300 26060 35180 84140 24430 38510 70070 22740 22190 33430 24980 41010 27770 22260 45850
2022-01-22 40730 40160 12550 24200 30370 20410 36960 34510 13200 58320 31910 32770 29760 46000 16900 55830 93440 72520 19150 49640 37880 29680 41850 45950 91970 62740 275800 28120 47140 38780 18340 20300 78370 15040 93000 29470 136800 35620 25470 80480 20170 37130 65420 116300 25760 79130 25010 25310 27550 27280 53910 46060 53780 26350 51870 27170 31470 88770 26660 41160 23290 34920 69300 10720 47150 44610 23180 35560 94510 88600 26250 22700 21540 33190 106100 12100 45350 2493 23820 18160 20340 99700 15160 138800 87020 12410 28810 94180 36460 28730 30780 19940 21430 65180 14030 49950 85320 67370 23310 85000 25710 33610 90380 29510 16780 25320 26260 23420 35690 26600 20910 20480 24210 78200 30160 43620 21980 30990 10610 34050 76310 34090 19880 28250 26290 36200 23420 20490 32540 75160 34400 23040 15280 20280 54720 30840 158800 28750 18400 27960 21760 68880 31200 23370 69220 39040 18740 47700 23000 63770 24850 36830 61270 21430 27510 19760 26590 69710 34050 27140 22650 32860 76830 28280 28100 73060 38790 24440 17880 30260 12970 25850 54220 33210 25480 27880 68480 42260 109600 48800 85450 34230 213100 97920 19730 72100 26330 24270 35250 140300 57900 40030 13730 12380 156100 28850 69260 11670 22370 17530 52720 14700 17440 33840 43300 32260 42730 19950 70800 18600 17170 14450 39110 31960 29360 82180 30970 86620 38260 50410 29710 18270 24500 40660 28830 24870 92460 39350 14630 44170 59730 16530 25880 56720 79970 30150 87000 35560 15830 67170 1822 35170 22350 25270 26760 53000 58450 50810 23230 41000 39850 79620 38430 21600 37340 46350 64300 17530 46020 11050 65040 21070 20030 16360 75240 28340 19910 30020 24210 8193 10000 78460 89000 22760 18030 24410 76620 22490 27150 144500 1659 66550 39350 55380 26750 22780 17150 32340 26550 66390 15040 18870 31330 20440 83190 25700 20740 30040 31190 30040 28160 43440 58050 45240 76990 25790 36230 54590 33470 23010 21700 19090 80750 57220 66150 27350 22020 77840 21640 53210 34770 61480 51390 66030 20930 20810 23710 45360 31380 28040 17870 30600 23170 48800 30230 27740 23620 12000 80740 66950 25620 20390 31580 27720 94980 73800 68870 85780 60270 33220 25850 26450 30840 18880 28730 31700 9128 23090 30000 20500 41820 21940 32090 50770 97010 96940 26180 35340 84770 24580 38730 70540 22900 22350 33600 25150 41220 27950 22440 46160
2022-01-23 41110 40470 12630 24430 30570 20600 37230 34760 13300 58780 32090 33000 29930 46310 17010 56000 94100 73260 19290 49870 38170 29900 42110 46320 92650 62850 278500 28360 47510 39150 18420 20450 78900 15120 93540 29690 138000 35850 25640 80980 20220 37300 65700 116900 25900 79300 25210 25390 27690 27490 54270 46270 54280 26550 52160 27440 31650 89040 26900 41410 23390 35170 69750 10760 47470 44730 23360 35800 95280 89380 26500 22840 21640 33510 106600 12180 45580 2511 23990 18310 20490 100300 15260 140100 87890 12510 28990 94480 36610 28980 30890 20120 21500 65700 14120 50350 86150 67800 23460 85720 25910 33850 91030 29720 16890 25480 26370 23580 35780 26780 21060 20610 24340 78800 30370 43970 22150 31130 10700 34190 76570 34220 19980 28400 26480 36460 23580 20650 32770 75720 34530 23180 15410 20470 55220 31010 159800 28960 18520 28100 21960 69160 31360 23430 69590 39370 18900 47970 23190 64040 24970 37140 61680 21560 27780 19880 26740 69910 34310 27290 22840 33130 77420 28490 28310 73540 39040 24640 18000 30480 13030 25990 54500 33480 25690 28100 69000 42440 110600 49230 85820 34460 215200 98690 19850 72340 26550 24440 35490 141200 58400 40210 13790 12480 157200 29070 69520 11740 22520 17600 52980 14800 17570 34050 43670 32520 43140 20080 71320 18700 17260 14590 39330 32170 29540 82890 31220 87060 38440 50850 29880 18410 24670 40940 28950 25040 92900 39680 14760 44520 60340 16660 26070 57150 80770 30340 87440 35830 15940 67720 1835 35430 22450 25480 27040 53480 58920 51130 23370 41300 40170 79950 38790 21770 37430 46600 64550 17660 46270 11160 65520 21120 20150 16450 75950 28570 20020 30150 24380 8257 10060 79010 89770 22950 18160 24570 77150 22700 27250 146200 1669 67110 39660 55820 26940 22940 17250 32570 26720 66900 15140 19020 31550 20590 83830 25860 20860 30230 31470 30260 28380 43900 58380 45390 77310 25910 36370 55100 33760 23160 21830 19200 81180 57770 66670 27590 22180 78650 21780 53390 34980 61760 51860 66510 21100 20870 23880 45730 31530 28220 17980 30810 23280 48960 30370 27960 23710 12090 81240 67230 25750 20480 31680 27920 95840 74390 69110 86330 60690 33490 26050 26590 31000 19020 28860 31920 9189 23180 30200 20640 42010 22090 32370 51100 97880 97570 26330 35540 85390 24740 38970 71080 23090 22510 33760 25320 41430 28210 22650 46480

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.