COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-08-10 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-08-10

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-08-10

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date04-1504-2104-2904-2904-0904-1404-1704-1003-2803-2504-2303-2804-1803-3005-1404-0204-1803-3003-2305-0905-1404-1004-1804-0304-0204-2304-0405-0305-0304-2003-2603-2603-3004-1604-2603-2705-1103-1804-1503-2805-1207-3004-0803-2804-0804-0804-2103-2904-1705-0904-1604-0303-3005-0504-2205-0605-0305-0804-0704-1704-1105-0304-1904-0204-2004-2204-1104-2003-2704-0404-2203-3103-2503-2304-1804-1604-1905-1304-1003-2704-2304-2504-1704-1504-1004-2104-2104-1604-1604-2204-1904-2303-2403-3003-2503-2504-1703-3004-1804-2805-1103-2706-0203-3004-1604-1904-1503-3005-1103-2804-0503-2903-2904-1504-2003-2603-2504-2003-2504-2304-1504-2504-1803-2607-0103-2304-1303-2604-1304-1903-2405-0305-0404-1704-2103-1503-2105-0304-0804-2204-0704-2303-3103-2503-2604-1406-1404-1303-2503-2504-2203-3104-0204-2703-2203-3003-3005-2403-2903-2305-0403-2703-2704-2304-2203-2704-2105-0503-2703-2503-2804-2903-2704-2004-1803-2604-2603-2504-1805-0404-2203-2904-0804-0803-2704-1004-2004-1404-2205-12 --04-01 --04-2904-1404-1405-0404-0803-3004-2204-1004-0505-2403-1904-2103-3104-2004-1405-1404-1704-2904-1304-1404-0505-0704-2004-0803-2404-1804-2203-2804-2003-2603-2304-2004-2303-2005-2603-2304-1504-0104-1703-2504-2804-2903-2404-2203-2705-0904-1604-2603-2104-1504-1803-2703-2704-1403-2904-1504-1504-1403-3004-0104-2004-2404-1003-3003-3104-0604-0504-0807-3005-1103-2104-0704-1505-1204-1404-2103-3104-1304-1703-2504-1104-1703-2503-2705-1304-2703-2504-2204-1703-2303-2403-3103-2404-1104-1304-1805-0205-1004-0704-1804-2004-2104-1804-1403-1704-1505-0304-1504-0803-3004-1404-1404-1704-1504-1604-1603-2904-2004-1404-21
Peak daily increment 5 8 8 18 12 22 13 7 19 47 27 27 16 24 24 8 17 29 96 7 27 21 6 34 8 20 8 55 11 9 51 7 13 25 13 38 21 6 9 8 24 14 6 19 7 15 25 6 19 14 16 12 12 40 31 9 14 7 12 23 8 7 17 4 68 22 5 11 49 9 15 19 5 19 9 35 15 11 25 34 4 7 15 8 5 11 40 12 18 16 10 6 8 26 14 8 8 6 6 11 13 4 12 36 7 14 7 10 14 25 13 15 6 33 6 21 10 12 29 6 14 2 9 28 44 13 7 24 9 11 23 28 6 20 16 15 16 18 23 43 16 28 21 39 32 75 75 6 37 8 4 55 23 24 4 5 50 17 24 3 4 23 11 10 13 20 18 12 8 6 33 17 43 4 12 5 10 6 18 15 19 20 10 5 16 37 7 25 13 5 21 33 18 12 22 22 29 14 9 17 4 15 11 22 7 8 4 30 9 6 7 14 2 3 26 30 21 7 35 8 8 69 21 18 20 15 4 7 6 17 3 25 7 15 18 5 17 10 8 8 22 17 15 44 8 12 31 18 7 7 31 17 27 14 9 48 9 28 9 22 27 7 7 7 11 14 10 6 21 7 11 6 9 25 22 10 15 9 28 31 28 32 28 9 12 12 8 6 8 11 2 14 4 11 14 19 53 37 10 7 45 8 15 28 12 10 10 6 16 10 30
Days from 100 to peak -2 21 23 19 7 16 20 -4 10 14 34 8 25 12 40 2 25 13 13 31 46 11 8 10 -4 29 4 43 30 16 15 -6 7 27 18 14 45 -12 14 -6 50 123 3 13 7 10 28 -7 26 37 23 7 3 44 31 34 23 37 8 17 12 12 28 -7 30 35 0 20 15 10 21 7 -21 6 6 25 25 39 24 15 1 16 16 17 1 11 26 18 21 10 18 -3 1 16 3 -3 12 -6 18 19 35 -21 56 6 17 20 4 1 40 14 9 2 -6 31 7 11 -2 18 13 17 9 -15 19 8 90 2 7 11 10 20 9 31 22 16 6 0 7 32 9 21 18 32 7 15 8 27 85 9 12 -2 6 15 12 30 -30 -8 11 44 9 -47 -11 13 -29 11 26 3 32 38 -3 -12 10 27 12 -8 19 -15 22 -10 16 17 20 6 4 3 4 17 11 24 29 28 8 29 16 21 37 14 14 26 8 15 32 1 3 9 10 2 21 28 22 10 10 7 -76 -10 20 8 14 13 7 4 -4 12 28 35 0 48 -12 14 1 24 14 22 7 14 -14 43 13 13 -4 19 27 3 18 13 5 24 11 5 -5 12 25 29 14 -3 9 6 19 10 123 50 -10 6 3 44 15 23 -5 15 18 1 9 13 9 7 36 19 -3 31 32 7 14 7 -4 17 14 16 14 36 12 24 -5 19 5 7 23 42 23 14 9 10 19 34 13 9 18 1 19 15 21
Days from peak/2 to peak 31 43 54 43 30 30 38 29 22 21 43 17 36 27 56 25 35 24 16 63 56 25 41 23 17 44 27 49 52 37 21 17 30 39 43 21 62 13 40 12 63 138 33 26 32 24 41 24 40 57 43 24 21 55 42 59 55 67 29 33 30 49 45 35 35 45 33 42 21 34 36 20 20 16 40 33 42 61 34 24 39 61 39 45 27 41 38 38 36 38 42 44 19 26 17 15 42 24 43 46 61 14 82 13 43 37 39 16 57 23 31 17 24 41 47 22 12 39 21 44 27 44 42 18 106 17 43 22 34 42 21 49 50 33 36 11 25 51 24 30 32 42 17 22 14 32 91 33 20 19 41 21 23 43 11 18 21 71 21 16 54 24 10 41 43 11 44 60 15 27 19 44 19 28 43 13 45 16 32 50 37 19 31 33 17 26 41 39 50 63 27 44 34 39 48 29 22 38 29 29 69 13 34 21 36 28 63 36 53 38 37 25 53 42 29 16 32 47 15 36 14 16 42 50 8 71 21 42 27 41 27 40 53 20 38 18 59 35 44 16 31 41 16 25 35 27 31 26 35 24 24 41 40 32 18 16 24 29 31 139 64 10 28 47 60 31 47 24 30 41 17 35 49 21 21 62 45 17 40 41 16 22 15 13 28 37 41 50 62 30 52 35 41 43 32 18 29 55 43 37 16 39 41 44 34 32 36 28 35 37 36
Last total 192 376 454 336 582 1362 808 276 786 1726 2045 601 841 955 617 358 1388 1118 5628 528 1606 1066 357 2119 499 846 392 5541 518 445 1834 291 826 1368 421 1561 549 298 439 551 1422 1020 358 746 334 719 767 337 1299 871 764 439 722 2290 2077 521 285 301 699 735 362 351 948 218 3379 1518 253 463 1910 545 615 732 287 1352 264 2050 629 709 1362 1668 199 229 509 426 257 421 1663 636 893 455 445 208 441 1251 504 341 425 251 304 503 786 166 476 1307 387 557 235 606 358 1012 569 718 320 818 404 824 395 740 1348 277 625 138 374 1026 893 497 449 1189 571 527 1174 925 427 717 426 604 603 623 857 1582 772 2659 1046 1459 902 4027 5328 383 1269 416 289 2659 1659 672 143 232 3624 358 1106 200 137 976 211 334 615 1021 911 335 468 391 1576 802 1374 122 616 220 369 226 740 224 923 939 351 338 1411 1600 310 1256 911 507 2497 935 709 1518 684 520 1318 817 1218 711 397 792 211 569 277 2020 301 310 193 2098 394 342 400 606 102 137 1594 1997 563 396 1596 324 380 4434 1454 715 960 454 218 380 424 778 101 716 431 617 333 282 620 542 341 406 962 975 719 1515 346 551 1239 594 383 330 1869 995 1550 536 273 1813 449 1043 553 1047 1744 357 335 215 645 661 501 265 916 372 594 371 285 905 1527 496 289 495 1950 1584 1081 1261 1382 451 603 473 478 378 414 500 74 773 164 545 506 868 2224 1330 484 432 2091 379 613 1519 419 417 445 461 645 414 935
Last daily increment 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 46 2 23 1 0 10 0 1 1 44 2 0 2 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 2 5 12 2 0 0 0 2 1 2 7 1 0 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 9 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 1 4 3 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 2 4 2 1 0 0 2 0 2 1 5 0 0 3 1 7 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 24 2 0 1 13 25 2 0 0 0 12 7 0 0 0 30 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 4 5 0 0 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 1 1 3 0 0 35 2 12 5 1 0 8 3 2 0 2 0 1 3 1 8 0 0 0 5 0 1 1 0 0 0 22 12 0 0 2 0 1 21 3 10 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 1 9 1 7 0 0 2 2 1 0 4 7 0 0 0 6 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 14 0 1 1 8 6 5 2 1 0 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 0 1 2 4 0 5 2 1 0 4 1 0 1
Last week 2 5 1 2 2 6 7 5 15 22 31 0 0 1 12 1 6 10 238 5 99 7 1 62 2 6 1 243 5 2 19 2 6 18 5 16 5 1 2 27 24 66 12 14 3 1 22 3 11 17 2 1 9 16 14 6 0 4 8 2 7 12 8 2 11 52 1 1 10 8 1 3 0 12 0 15 8 14 19 26 4 1 4 5 2 0 5 6 2 2 0 8 4 15 8 1 4 1 2 5 9 0 4 6 3 13 2 4 1 10 7 7 5 17 6 12 1 6 12 4 3 0 2 7 2 7 7 24 2 3 24 10 20 4 3 11 8 10 0 3 14 116 13 12 6 91 210 4 15 4 11 49 51 1 1 1 170 1 3 5 3 5 0 3 3 32 20 1 3 20 16 2 20 0 9 0 3 1 1 1 4 8 2 3 55 4 1 15 5 4 224 18 57 34 4 5 44 9 33 0 3 5 3 11 5 79 0 8 4 28 3 3 1 3 2 1 64 71 1 1 12 1 2 93 7 32 15 5 2 2 5 9 2 1 5 1 2 1 0 5 0 3 6 3 3 15 4 5 17 4 1 3 68 1 32 4 2 17 5 2 1 73 61 5 0 0 10 3 1 5 2 1 5 7 1 10 52 2 1 3 54 16 17 19 27 5 15 1 3 17 3 2 0 5 4 5 7 25 17 8 0 3 10 8 3 29 3 2 4 9 3 0 8
Days since peak 117 111 103 103 123 118 115 122 135 138 109 135 114 133 88 130 114 133 140 93 88 122 114 129 130 109 128 99 99 112 137 137 133 116 106 136 91 145 117 135 90 11 124 135 124 124 111 134 115 93 116 129 133 97 110 96 99 94 125 115 121 99 113 130 112 110 121 112 136 128 110 132 138 140 114 116 113 89 122 136 109 107 115 117 122 111 111 116 116 110 113 109 139 133 138 138 115 133 114 104 91 136 69 133 116 113 117 133 91 135 127 134 134 117 112 137 138 112 138 109 117 107 114 137 40 140 119 137 119 113 139 99 98 115 111 148 142 99 124 110 125 109 132 138 137 118 57 119 138 138 110 132 130 105 141 133 133 78 134 140 98 136 136 109 110 136 111 97 136 138 135 103 136 112 114 137 106 138 114 98 110 134 124 124 136 122 112 118 110 90 131 103 118 118 98 124 133 110 122 127 78 144 111 132 112 118 88 115 103 119 118 127 95 112 124 139 114 110 135 112 137 140 112 109 143 76 140 117 131 115 138 104 103 139 110 136 93 116 106 142 117 114 136 136 118 134 117 117 118 133 131 112 108 122 133 132 126 127 124 11 91 142 125 117 90 118 111 132 119 115 138 121 115 138 136 89 105 138 110 115 140 139 132 139 121 119 114 100 92 125 114 112 111 114 118 146 117 99 117 124 133 118 118 115 117 116 116 134 112 118 111

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-11 to 2020-08-17

DateAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBassetlawBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBradfordBrentBrighton and HoveBristolBromleyBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChorleyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCroydonDacorumDerbyDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast StaffordshireEdenEnfieldEpping ForestFolkestone and HytheGatesheadGloucesterGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHaveringHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLincolnLiverpoolLutonManchesterMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth TynesideNorthamptonNottinghamOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPrestonReadingRedbridgeRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRossendaleRotherhamSalfordSandwellSeftonSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouth GloucestershireSouth TynesideSouthwarkSt. HelensStockportStoke-on-TrentSunderlandSwindonTamesideTelford and WrekinTonbridge and MallingTower HamletsTraffordWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWatfordWellingboroughWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWirralWokingWolverhamptonWycombeYork
2020-08-10 1362 808 786 1726 2045 617 1388 1118 5628 1606 1066 2119 846 5541 1834 826 1368 1561 551 1422 1020 358 746 767 1299 871 722 2290 2077 521 699 362 351 948 3379 1518 1910 545 1352 2050 629 709 1362 1668 636 208 1251 504 786 1307 557 1012 569 718 818 404 824 740 1348 1026 497 449 1189 1174 925 427 604 603 623 772 2659 1046 1459 902 4027 5328 1269 289 2659 1659 3624 1021 911 391 1576 1374 616 939 1411 1256 2497 935 709 1518 1318 817 1218 569 2020 310 2098 1594 1997 1596 4434 1454 715 960 778 962 1515 1239 1869 1550 1813 1047 1744 645 371 905 1527 1950 1584 1081 1261 1382 603 378 506 868 2224 1330 2091 379 1519 461 935
2020-08-11 1363 809 788 1732 2049 619 1402 1119 5662 1626 1067 2128 847 5580 1837 827 1370 1561 555 1427 1031 358 746 770 1301 874 723 2292 2080 521 700 363 352 950 3381 1525 1912 546 1354 2050 630 710 1363 1670 637 209 1253 505 789 1308 558 1014 570 719 819 405 826 741 1350 1028 498 450 1192 1178 926 430 605 605 624 775 2676 1047 1461 903 4053 5356 1271 290 2667 1665 3649 1024 913 394 1576 1377 617 940 1420 1259 2559 938 746 1523 1324 818 1222 570 2031 311 2103 1603 2008 1598 4447 1456 719 962 779 962 1517 1239 1871 1559 1815 1059 1752 648 372 913 1537 1957 1587 1083 1266 1383 605 380 507 871 2227 1332 2093 380 1524 462 936
2020-08-12 1364 810 790 1736 2053 621 1403 1121 5695 1642 1069 2138 848 5619 1840 828 1373 1561 560 1433 1043 358 748 773 1303 877 724 2296 2083 521 701 364 354 952 3382 1532 1913 548 1355 2052 631 711 1365 1678 639 210 1255 506 790 1309 559 1016 570 720 823 405 828 742 1352 1030 498 452 1194 1182 928 433 607 606 625 778 2692 1050 1464 904 4076 5384 1273 291 2675 1672 3673 1028 915 397 1576 1380 618 941 1429 1261 2623 940 773 1528 1330 819 1226 572 2041 312 2107 1612 2018 1600 4460 1457 722 964 780 963 1519 1239 1886 1568 1816 1071 1760 651 373 915 1546 1964 1589 1085 1272 1385 607 382 508 874 2231 1335 2095 381 1529 463 937
2020-08-13 1365 811 792 1741 2057 623 1404 1122 5727 1657 1070 2147 849 5657 1842 830 1375 1561 564 1438 1054 359 752 776 1304 880 725 2300 2085 521 702 364 355 953 3384 1539 1915 549 1357 2055 631 711 1366 1681 640 211 1258 507 791 1310 560 1017 571 721 825 406 831 744 1354 1032 499 453 1197 1186 929 436 608 608 627 781 2708 1052 1466 904 4099 5412 1275 292 2682 1678 3697 1031 917 400 1581 1383 619 941 1438 1264 2688 943 794 1533 1336 820 1230 573 2052 312 2112 1621 2028 1602 4472 1459 725 966 782 963 1521 1239 1900 1577 1818 1082 1768 654 374 918 1556 1971 1592 1087 1276 1386 609 384 509 877 2234 1337 2097 382 1533 464 937
2020-08-14 1366 812 794 1746 2061 625 1408 1123 5759 1673 1071 2155 850 5694 1845 831 1378 1561 568 1443 1065 362 753 779 1306 882 726 2302 2088 522 703 365 356 955 3385 1545 1916 551 1359 2057 632 712 1367 1683 641 212 1260 508 793 1311 561 1019 571 722 830 407 833 745 1356 1034 500 455 1199 1189 931 439 610 609 628 784 2724 1054 1469 905 4121 5439 1277 293 2690 1684 3721 1034 919 403 1582 1385 620 942 1447 1267 2756 946 812 1537 1342 821 1234 574 2062 313 2116 1630 2038 1604 4484 1461 727 968 783 964 1523 1239 1913 1585 1819 1094 1776 656 375 921 1565 1978 1595 1088 1278 1387 610 386 510 880 2237 1340 2098 383 1538 465 938
2020-08-15 1367 813 796 1749 2065 627 1409 1124 5791 1682 1072 2164 851 5732 1848 832 1380 1561 571 1448 1076 362 754 782 1308 885 726 2303 2090 522 704 366 358 957 3387 1552 1918 552 1360 2058 633 713 1369 1685 642 213 1262 509 795 1311 562 1021 572 723 833 408 835 746 1358 1037 501 456 1202 1193 932 442 611 611 629 787 2739 1057 1471 906 4143 5467 1279 295 2698 1690 3745 1037 921 406 1582 1388 621 943 1456 1269 2826 949 833 1542 1348 822 1237 576 2073 314 2120 1639 2049 1606 4496 1462 730 970 784 964 1526 1239 1920 1593 1821 1106 1784 659 375 922 1575 1985 1597 1090 1279 1389 612 388 510 883 2240 1342 2100 384 1543 466 939
2020-08-16 1368 814 798 1751 2069 629 1409 1126 5824 1700 1074 2173 852 5770 1851 834 1383 1561 575 1453 1087 365 757 785 1309 888 727 2305 2093 522 705 367 359 959 3389 1559 1920 554 1362 2058 634 714 1370 1690 644 214 1264 510 796 1312 563 1023 572 724 833 408 837 747 1360 1039 501 458 1204 1196 933 445 612 611 631 789 2755 1058 1473 907 4165 5495 1281 296 2705 1696 3770 1040 923 409 1584 1391 622 943 1465 1272 2898 951 855 1547 1354 824 1241 577 2083 315 2125 1648 2059 1608 4508 1464 733 972 785 965 1528 1239 1923 1601 1823 1117 1792 661 376 923 1584 1991 1600 1092 1281 1390 614 389 511 886 2243 1345 2102 385 1547 467 940
2020-08-17 1369 815 800 1754 2073 632 1411 1127 5856 1720 1075 2182 853 5809 1854 835 1385 1561 579 1458 1098 367 757 788 1311 890 728 2310 2096 522 706 367 361 960 3390 1566 1921 555 1364 2059 635 714 1371 1694 645 216 1266 511 798 1313 564 1025 573 725 834 409 838 748 1362 1041 502 459 1207 1200 935 447 614 612 632 792 2771 1060 1476 907 4187 5523 1284 297 2713 1702 3794 1043 925 412 1586 1394 622 944 1474 1274 2972 954 871 1552 1360 825 1245 578 2094 315 2129 1657 2069 1610 4519 1466 735 974 786 965 1530 1239 1930 1610 1824 1129 1801 664 377 923 1594 1998 1603 1093 1285 1391 616 391 512 889 2247 1347 2104 386 1552 468 941

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-11 to 2020-08-17

DateAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBassetlawBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBradfordBrentBrighton and HoveBristolBromleyBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChorleyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCroydonDacorumDerbyDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast StaffordshireEdenEnfieldEpping ForestFolkestone and HytheGatesheadGloucesterGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHaveringHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLincolnLiverpoolLutonManchesterMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth TynesideNorthamptonNottinghamOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPrestonReadingRedbridgeRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRossendaleRotherhamSalfordSandwellSeftonSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouth GloucestershireSouth TynesideSouthwarkSt. HelensStockportStoke-on-TrentSunderlandSwindonTamesideTelford and WrekinTonbridge and MallingTower HamletsTraffordWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWatfordWellingboroughWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWirralWokingWolverhamptonWycombeYork
2020-08-10 1362 808 786 1726 2045 617 1388 1118 5628 1606 1066 2119 846 5541 1834 826 1368 1561 551 1422 1020 358 746 767 1299 871 722 2290 2077 521 699 362 351 948 3379 1518 1910 545 1352 2050 629 709 1362 1668 636 208 1251 504 786 1307 557 1012 569 718 818 404 824 740 1348 1026 497 449 1189 1174 925 427 604 603 623 772 2659 1046 1459 902 4027 5328 1269 289 2659 1659 3624 1021 911 391 1576 1374 616 939 1411 1256 2497 935 709 1518 1318 817 1218 569 2020 310 2098 1594 1997 1596 4434 1454 715 960 778 962 1515 1239 1869 1550 1813 1047 1744 645 371 905 1527 1950 1584 1081 1261 1382 603 378 506 868 2224 1330 2091 379 1519 461 935
2020-08-11 1362 808 788 1729 2047 619 1390 1119 5644 1617 1067 2127 847 5577 1836 827 1370 1562 554 1427 1031 358 747 770 1300 872 722 2291 2079 521 700 362 352 950 3380 1524 1912 546 1353 2050 629 710 1363 1670 637 209 1252 505 788 1307 558 1013 569 719 820 404 825 740 1349 1029 498 450 1190 1178 926 428 605 604 624 773 2672 1048 1461 902 4043 5346 1270 289 2666 1663 3651 1023 913 394 1577 1378 616 939 1418 1259 2535 937 725 1522 1324 817 1221 569 2028 311 2101 1598 2003 1597 4438 1455 716 962 779 962 1516 1241 1875 1554 1814 1055 1751 646 372 907 1532 1957 1585 1082 1264 1384 604 380 507 871 2227 1332 2092 379 1522 461 935
2020-08-12 1363 810 792 1732 2051 621 1393 1120 5673 1633 1069 2137 848 5617 1839 828 1372 1564 556 1433 1044 358 748 773 1302 875 722 2295 2082 522 701 363 354 951 3381 1532 1913 548 1355 2051 630 711 1365 1678 638 210 1254 506 789 1308 559 1015 569 720 823 405 827 742 1351 1031 499 451 1193 1182 927 429 606 605 625 774 2690 1050 1464 903 4059 5377 1272 291 2675 1669 3680 1026 915 396 1578 1380 617 940 1429 1262 2586 939 743 1527 1331 818 1226 570 2037 311 2106 1605 2011 1599 4447 1456 717 964 780 963 1518 1243 1886 1558 1816 1070 1761 646 373 908 1540 1966 1587 1084 1270 1388 606 382 508 875 2230 1334 2095 379 1527 462 936
2020-08-13 1364 811 794 1737 2055 623 1395 1120 5704 1648 1070 2148 848 5657 1842 829 1375 1566 560 1439 1056 359 751 776 1304 877 723 2300 2085 522 702 364 355 953 3382 1540 1915 549 1357 2054 631 712 1368 1681 639 212 1257 508 791 1309 561 1016 570 720 825 406 829 743 1352 1033 500 453 1195 1186 929 431 608 606 626 774 2709 1053 1468 903 4072 5412 1275 292 2683 1675 3707 1028 917 398 1580 1385 618 940 1439 1264 2636 942 757 1532 1338 819 1230 572 2048 312 2110 1614 2019 1601 4458 1458 719 967 782 963 1520 1245 1897 1562 1818 1086 1771 647 373 910 1547 1973 1589 1086 1274 1391 607 384 510 878 2232 1336 2097 380 1530 462 936
2020-08-14 1364 812 796 1740 2059 625 1398 1121 5734 1663 1071 2156 849 5697 1844 830 1377 1568 564 1445 1069 360 752 780 1305 879 723 2302 2087 523 704 364 356 955 3384 1547 1917 550 1359 2055 632 714 1370 1683 640 213 1259 509 793 1310 562 1018 570 721 829 406 831 743 1353 1035 501 454 1198 1190 930 433 609 607 627 776 2725 1055 1470 904 4085 5441 1277 294 2691 1681 3735 1031 920 403 1582 1387 619 941 1449 1267 2687 944 769 1537 1344 820 1234 572 2060 313 2114 1621 2028 1603 4468 1459 721 969 783 963 1522 1248 1907 1565 1820 1101 1780 647 374 912 1554 1979 1591 1088 1277 1394 609 386 511 882 2234 1339 2099 380 1534 463 937
2020-08-15 1365 813 798 1743 2063 627 1401 1122 5764 1676 1073 2164 850 5738 1847 831 1380 1570 568 1451 1081 360 754 782 1307 882 724 2304 2090 523 705 365 358 957 3386 1555 1918 552 1361 2056 632 715 1372 1685 641 215 1261 510 795 1311 564 1020 570 722 831 407 833 745 1354 1037 502 456 1200 1194 932 436 611 609 628 777 2739 1058 1473 904 4101 5466 1279 295 2699 1686 3763 1033 922 405 1583 1390 619 941 1459 1269 2740 946 778 1541 1351 821 1238 573 2070 314 2116 1627 2035 1605 4479 1461 723 971 784 963 1524 1250 1916 1570 1821 1117 1788 648 375 913 1561 1984 1594 1089 1279 1398 611 389 511 885 2236 1341 2101 380 1537 464 938
2020-08-16 1366 814 800 1746 2067 629 1403 1123 5795 1693 1074 2172 851 5779 1849 832 1382 1571 573 1457 1093 362 755 784 1308 885 724 2306 2093 524 705 366 359 958 3387 1563 1920 553 1363 2056 633 716 1375 1688 642 216 1263 512 796 1312 565 1021 570 723 833 408 834 745 1355 1038 503 457 1203 1198 933 438 612 610 629 778 2752 1060 1478 905 4116 5485 1281 297 2707 1691 3789 1036 925 408 1584 1392 620 942 1470 1272 2790 949 796 1545 1358 822 1243 574 2078 315 2119 1636 2042 1607 4490 1462 726 973 785 964 1526 1252 1924 1573 1823 1133 1796 649 375 915 1568 1989 1596 1090 1282 1401 613 391 512 888 2238 1343 2102 381 1541 465 938
2020-08-17 1367 816 803 1750 2071 631 1408 1124 5825 1710 1076 2185 852 5820 1852 833 1384 1573 578 1463 1108 362 756 786 1310 887 725 2312 2096 524 706 366 361 960 3388 1570 1922 555 1365 2056 634 718 1377 1695 644 218 1265 513 798 1313 567 1023 571 724 835 408 836 746 1357 1040 504 458 1205 1203 935 441 614 611 631 779 2771 1062 1484 905 4130 5512 1283 298 2715 1696 3818 1038 927 413 1585 1395 621 942 1480 1275 2844 951 811 1549 1366 823 1247 575 2085 315 2124 1646 2049 1609 4501 1464 728 975 787 964 1527 1254 1931 1577 1825 1149 1806 649 376 916 1575 1996 1599 1092 1287 1404 614 393 512 892 2240 1346 2103 382 1543 466 939

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

    The district map is an updated version of: Districts of England (2019)

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.