COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-04-07 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-04-07

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-04-07

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-3012-2712-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-2712-2212-2812-2712-272021-01-032021-01-072021-01-0111-1512-2812-2210-2912-2212-2712-2712-1312-2711-0112-2512-2112-2712-2212-3012-3012-2711-0312-2112-2712-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-212021-01-0412-2112-212021-01-0212-2612-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-282021-02-2510-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-2912-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2612-1412-232021-01-0612-2912-2312-2812-1812-252021-01-0412-2712-2612-2112-2712-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-2312-2912-2112-2912-2712-2812-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2510-2812-2110-2712-2712-2912-3012-2712-2812-2112-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2312-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0312-2211-042021-01-0712-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0311-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2612-2111-0412-2112-2911-0312-212021-01-0412-2712-2112-3012-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-2712-312021-01-0612-292021-01-0212-2912-212021-01-062021-01-0612-2212-2812-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-252021-01-2612-2812-2912-292021-01-0312-2112-3112-2912-2412-2712-3012-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2412-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2612-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-2512-2812-3012-2312-3012-3112-2712-2112-2612-2112-1912-1212-2312-3012-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2812-2812-2712-1812-2512-2112-2212-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2712-2712-2912-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-3012-2812-3012-3012-30
Peak daily increment 61 88 96 180 109 172 178 78 478 587 191 59 326 130 109 108 232 424 1250 70 158 67 58 158 49 484 141 441 228 107 524 154 310 319 107 505 94 188 62 122 123 141 97 255 87 149 171 173 301 89 264 53 200 250 286 61 90 71 66 244 53 95 285 35 367 289 38 184 598 151 69 189 72 247 27 249 187 118 322 539 60 52 76 160 109 52 224 102 165 146 108 54 143 588 271 94 74 53 89 73 125 53 38 122 80 92 56 180 90 448 120 220 59 199 57 398 176 104 339 101 109 135 121 481 101 159 47 444 57 115 450 139 84 134 236 275 148 71 100 296 197 360 310 429 107 380 287 104 444 71 111 733 271 199 89 37 377 89 417 29 46 297 50 62 148 119 362 79 105 63 123 85 724 23 50 159 105 51 109 59 123 121 41 55 275 159 122 225 89 44 125 127 109 154 117 203 103 174 620 83 81 174 52 187 40 133 139 56 96 199 80 86 59 174 36 26 163 450 42 82 403 65 130 244 210 245 167 98 107 101 69 180 27 42 85 83 95 80 110 80 67 102 113 245 294 456 131 152 220 93 57 112 178 132 194 66 42 202 105 320 188 181 125 55 108 46 139 321 91 45 138 123 369 138 49 11 558 153 92 107 85 258 324 451 387 228 76 136 118 159 65 154 87 30 83 42 67 115 216 219 265 84 148 429 106 139 376 106 114 95 174 71 69 187
Days since peak 101 98 101 107 101 120 107 105 102 105 176 101 105 100 86 98 101 106 100 101 101 94 90 96 143 100 106 160 106 101 101 115 101 157 103 107 101 106 98 98 101 155 107 101 103 120 101 107 107 93 106 99 102 106 107 93 107 107 95 102 101 100 99 106 106 98 100 101 101 107 103 107 107 100 41 175 101 121 102 101 104 99 104 107 156 102 158 101 99 100 107 103 106 102 114 105 91 99 105 100 110 103 93 101 102 107 101 106 107 101 107 101 106 107 107 107 106 101 101 106 106 115 101 105 99 107 99 101 100 104 103 107 96 100 101 106 100 100 103 161 107 162 101 99 98 101 100 107 101 101 129 101 101 105 107 93 98 94 106 154 90 107 107 107 106 103 106 102 100 99 94 154 100 120 101 164 102 107 154 107 99 155 107 93 101 107 98 99 107 101 100 101 101 97 91 99 95 99 107 91 91 106 100 107 101 100 115 97 115 172 98 101 101 103 71 100 99 99 94 107 97 99 104 101 98 103 101 107 106 107 100 102 103 93 106 149 104 106 108 94 100 101 106 107 114 100 102 107 102 103 158 106 100 107 157 107 105 106 101 107 121 103 100 98 105 98 97 101 107 102 107 109 116 105 98 107 106 100 106 102 107 161 100 101 110 103 107 106 106 107 101 103 108 115 100 121 106 101 101 99 99 106 106 100 101 106 101 96 100 98 100 98 98 98
Last total 2874 5026 8551 8183 9562 9736 11604 3825 23439 30190 19007 4243 17573 8144 8046 8171 13384 22265 100492 6988 17986 9165 5919 25788 4856 25155 7009 48469 10770 6697 28286 6864 14419 30535 5989 24260 6215 9074 7086 9861 17117 14336 5592 13967 7063 10012 8192 8320 15806 12364 12621 3722 9012 20709 21593 6091 4848 4223 7805 11271 3125 5725 14051 2536 37673 23522 2778 7890 30730 8467 7440 10292 4195 19971 2964 23030 11749 7812 26596 30817 2991 4158 4822 8152 6337 4754 17892 9555 8731 6605 5781 2973 7294 29599 12388 5207 6984 4936 5212 5453 8044 3071 4754 13678 8119 6329 3826 10215 5462 22253 7291 11895 4171 12871 5055 20691 7906 7580 20581 4291 8814 6182 6997 26780 6887 8171 4925 26242 6078 5635 24607 7764 7794 7543 6753 14899 8880 5957 7526 19503 12151 33325 17293 24085 9344 61724 36067 4893 21561 6547 6833 48261 20176 12632 3749 2764 52434 8114 26016 2650 3412 16108 2199 3248 6773 12361 19911 4364 6113 7221 23309 8367 35285 1949 5943 8552 6326 5488 9174 2986 9976 12380 4307 6022 17963 17333 7354 30440 8420 4916 22827 9372 9604 15342 9072 14171 13716 10807 32662 9247 6171 9203 4570 10745 2601 21079 6394 6065 4864 20953 6488 5471 6817 7684 1633 1856 23003 33891 5511 5309 23765 4863 6840 42875 14906 15261 14552 5922 4762 5732 7272 15071 1630 5234 7429 4448 5481 4646 5821 8045 5401 8627 11279 14539 14705 22300 7373 7777 16980 8497 5289 5968 20756 15767 19801 5143 3719 21951 5446 15834 13323 11294 18198 5365 5518 2955 10866 9904 5313 2897 11383 6226 17819 7993 4191 980 28616 16350 5639 4835 5091 25166 25524 24777 21956 17720 7110 7853 5777 7861 4876 8162 6301 1160 8881 4631 4052 6414 13982 28843 17036 4892 8380 24166 6795 8139 24616 6033 5286 6398 10602 6613 5527 12151
Last daily increment 2 2 3 16 1 2 11 1 8 18 41 5 4 0 7 2 8 7 56 8 12 3 2 28 15 8 4 70 1 4 7 4 5 13 2 6 3 3 0 3 10 4 0 3 0 2 3 5 13 8 4 5 5 8 8 4 2 2 5 6 2 9 7 0 9 15 4 5 11 2 6 6 1 8 1 29 11 1 11 13 1 0 3 6 2 4 26 5 5 1 3 1 0 3 1 1 5 2 2 10 0 1 1 7 6 2 0 1 1 4 3 1 0 4 1 2 2 5 9 2 4 1 5 4 4 1 6 16 9 5 5 5 7 11 9 7 5 6 6 27 11 58 3 11 5 75 29 2 8 1 2 16 14 3 1 2 43 17 7 4 4 1 2 2 2 9 18 0 2 7 14 4 11 0 9 7 2 5 29 1 9 19 5 5 21 14 2 15 4 3 22 3 3 27 4 2 5 11 9 3 1 5 2 4 2 19 2 3 0 33 2 3 2 3 1 2 15 30 4 4 10 2 6 57 5 14 10 5 5 5 4 12 1 13 12 0 2 1 2 3 5 2 2 17 0 6 3 1 13 2 1 5 16 12 20 6 2 17 4 3 3 14 10 6 3 2 4 3 7 1 4 1 8 0 3 1 10 7 1 1 7 49 18 7 11 15 4 1 2 2 10 1 3 0 3 6 3 6 15 29 9 3 5 6 3 4 12 5 2 2 13 2 0 3
Last week 9 11 12 31 24 15 36 9 56 78 207 14 14 27 29 21 26 39 265 37 84 14 21 126 45 35 17 370 11 10 51 9 32 62 8 31 9 18 10 26 58 63 11 25 7 14 11 19 50 67 16 12 17 51 46 23 14 11 48 17 17 63 40 3 104 87 19 13 45 26 42 25 17 39 2 193 52 6 84 78 23 4 6 14 32 35 105 27 30 15 22 5 11 37 8 11 19 8 12 47 2 4 12 42 42 9 6 10 9 26 11 24 8 23 10 24 15 21 53 8 40 2 17 34 13 18 24 98 36 13 75 22 31 46 23 35 31 35 37 155 40 261 25 23 22 447 240 8 33 12 8 82 142 10 4 5 222 99 28 20 15 22 8 11 12 37 76 10 19 36 73 14 80 2 39 61 18 17 104 3 22 67 23 19 88 66 12 90 28 16 110 38 17 116 23 24 43 43 68 23 16 19 14 35 6 107 10 19 3 157 48 10 10 13 8 10 72 107 26 26 50 23 14 340 30 78 49 17 11 16 24 52 6 58 59 3 20 14 27 41 31 14 15 113 41 18 25 14 44 16 12 15 96 72 111 35 4 74 10 23 17 61 73 25 6 8 26 15 32 12 28 16 28 9 19 1 48 65 8 4 17 249 94 31 60 53 22 24 9 5 47 18 16 2 18 32 12 29 47 136 70 15 32 30 17 19 89 16 13 15 42 12 18 18
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1910-1110-2410-17 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --11-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-2511-02 --10-31 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-29 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- --11-02 --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-29 --10-0709-2706-14 -- -- -- --09-28 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-20 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-1310-13 --10-18 --10-11 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0111-01 --09-30 -- --09-2910-30 -- -- -- -- --10-28 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-06 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-20 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-05 -- -- -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 --11-03 --10-1311-0310-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 77 72 95 164 98 54 234 136 55 71 57 70 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 68 293 144 20 165 28 57 31 32 55 75 41 129 71 25 71 31 55 65 48 42 52 59 152 86 540 75 530 611 61 73 391 51 58 68 612 256 82 102 95 43 41 42 196 64 43 67 237 231 84 183 435 113 66 24 70 76 118 182 125 31 127 177 46 90 48 139 134 58 91 320 136 38 31 65 41 131
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 9 54 28 18 61 34 27 21 19 33 55 9 32 16 55 18 31 13 105 71 9 53 7 19 15 8 17 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 23 18 13 11 14 21 19 23 154 15 58 135 19 34 54 14 16 7 70 57 17 40 25 13 12 21 62 22 19 14 48 91 19 25 119 34 22 11 28 24 30 46 48 9 58 33 15 31 7 27 34 21 19 77 21 9 11 18 13 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-04-08 to 2021-04-14

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-04-07 2874 5026 8551 8183 9562 9736 11604 3825 23439 30190 19007 4243 17573 8144 8046 8171 13384 22265 100492 6988 17986 9165 5919 25788 4856 25155 7009 48469 10770 6697 28286 6864 14419 30535 5989 24260 6215 9074 7086 9861 17117 14336 5592 13967 7063 10012 8192 8320 15806 12364 12621 3722 9012 20709 21593 6091 4848 4223 7805 11271 3125 5725 14051 37673 23522 2778 7890 30730 8467 7440 10292 4195 19971 23030 11749 7812 26596 30817 2991 4822 8152 6337 4754 17892 9555 8731 6605 5781 7294 29599 12388 5207 6984 4936 5212 5453 4754 13678 8119 6329 3826 10215 5462 22253 7291 11895 4171 12871 5055 20691 7906 7580 20581 4291 8814 6997 26780 6887 8171 4925 26242 6078 5635 24607 7764 7794 7543 6753 14899 8880 5957 7526 19503 12151 33325 17293 24085 9344 61724 36067 4893 21561 6547 6833 48261 20176 12632 52434 8114 26016 2650 3412 16108 2199 3248 6773 12361 19911 4364 6113 7221 23309 8367 35285 5943 8552 6326 5488 9174 9976 12380 4307 6022 17963 17333 7354 30440 8420 4916 22827 9372 9604 15342 9072 14171 13716 10807 32662 9247 6171 9203 4570 10745 2601 21079 6394 6065 20953 6488 5471 6817 7684 1633 1856 23003 33891 5511 5309 23765 4863 6840 42875 14906 15261 14552 5922 4762 5732 7272 15071 1630 5234 7429 5481 4646 5821 8045 5401 8627 11279 14539 14705 22300 7373 7777 16980 8497 5289 5968 20756 15767 19801 5143 21951 5446 15834 13323 11294 18198 5365 5518 2955 10866 9904 5313 2897 11383 6226 17819 7993 4191 28616 16350 5639 5091 25166 25524 24777 21956 17720 7110 7853 5777 4876 8162 6301 8881 4631 4052 6414 13982 28843 17036 4892 8380 24166 6795 8139 24616 6033 5286 6398 10602 6613 5527 12151
2021-04-08 2875 5034 8566 8191 9571 9747 11620 3827 23450 30200 19050 4245 17580 8150 8054 8177 13390 22280 100600 7003 18000 9168 5921 25820 4873 25180 7013 48680 10770 6703 28300 6866 14430 30560 6011 24270 6217 9077 7123 9879 17160 14360 5596 13970 7081 10030 8194 8321 15820 12390 12630 3724 9016 20760 21590 6099 4859 4226 7814 11280 3128 5766 14080 37700 23570 2782 7895 30740 8473 7449 10300 4198 20020 23140 11770 7814 26670 30860 2996 4828 8154 6345 4757 17960 9566 8746 6617 5800 7297 29610 12390 5210 6988 4938 5213 5470 4755 13690 8133 6333 3834 10220 5464 22260 7292 11900 4173 12880 5057 20690 7907 7584 20590 4294 8837 7001 26790 6904 8174 4935 26260 6088 5639 24630 7776 7806 7566 6756 14910 8887 5965 7535 19550 12160 33360 17300 24100 9359 61800 36150 4895 21570 6565 6835 48280 20200 12650 52510 8122 26020 2654 3414 16120 2201 3251 6779 12380 19930 4365 6124 7252 23330 8387 35300 5946 8566 6331 5492 9196 9990 12390 4317 6026 18000 17380 7357 30460 8440 4920 22850 9391 9617 15390 9087 14200 13730 10810 32680 9262 6175 9210 4573 10750 2602 21130 6402 6067 20990 6497 5474 6819 7686 1635 1857 23010 33970 5517 5328 23780 4869 6842 42910 14930 15290 14580 5928 4764 5736 7295 15090 1631 5259 7444 5485 4649 5828 8048 5427 8628 11280 14580 14710 22310 7377 7780 17000 8500 5302 5974 20770 15830 19820 5149 21980 5448 15840 13340 11310 18220 5383 5520 2958 10880 9931 5317 2899 11390 6230 17820 8002 4194 28630 16390 5649 5096 25280 25580 24790 21980 17730 7115 7857 5779 4880 8174 6313 8884 4638 4056 6426 13990 28890 17060 4894 8406 24190 6799 8156 24650 6037 5293 6413 10610 6613 5544 12160
2021-04-09 2877 5039 8576 8194 9572 9754 11620 3829 23480 30220 19090 4248 17590 8163 8060 8182 13400 22300 100700 7015 18010 9169 5922 25840 4884 25190 7022 48820 10790 6731 28310 6868 14430 30570 6020 24280 6220 9081 7140 9892 17190 14370 5608 13990 7091 10040 8197 8321 15860 12410 12640 3729 9024 20790 21600 6107 4867 4231 7829 11300 3129 5791 14090 37750 23600 2784 7898 30760 8485 7456 10310 4204 20060 23200 11780 7822 26710 30900 3001 4832 8159 6366 4765 18000 9573 8755 6625 5809 7305 29640 12400 5217 7001 4943 5214 5483 4755 13710 8149 6335 3839 10220 5466 22290 7294 11920 4180 12900 5059 20700 7910 7597 20620 4303 8847 7009 26810 6913 8181 4944 26300 6107 5642 24640 7782 7812 7576 6756 14920 8897 5978 7546 19590 12170 33390 17300 24130 9368 61850 36200 4901 21590 6574 6850 48290 20260 12650 52570 8132 26030 2663 3418 16140 2205 3256 6783 12390 19950 4368 6131 7271 23360 8398 35320 5950 8597 6343 5505 9224 10000 12410 4340 6028 18020 17410 7370 30470 8450 4928 22860 9400 9624 15420 9097 14210 13730 10820 32710 9276 6181 9214 4582 10770 2605 21160 6409 6071 21020 6521 5487 6830 7691 1641 1860 23020 34020 5527 5338 23790 4888 6846 42920 14940 15300 14600 5932 4768 5746 7308 15110 1633 5276 7476 5486 4654 5844 8052 5444 8629 11300 14600 14730 22340 7389 7786 17010 8503 5310 5994 20780 15850 19860 5152 21990 5452 15850 13340 11340 18230 5392 5525 2960 10890 9945 5321 2900 11410 6236 17820 8008 4198 28650 16410 5654 5106 25350 25610 24810 22010 17740 7121 7861 5784 4882 8184 6320 8886 4659 4069 6436 14000 28920 17080 4896 8418 24200 6809 8166 24690 6050 5296 6423 10630 6614 5554 12170
2021-04-10 2878 5041 8581 8198 9574 9759 11630 3831 23500 30240 19120 4251 17590 8173 8063 8184 13410 22320 100700 7022 18020 9169 5923 25850 4889 25190 7028 48940 10790 6748 28310 6869 14430 30580 6024 24300 6223 9084 7147 9900 17200 14390 5616 14000 7095 10050 8199 8321 15880 12430 12650 3733 9029 20810 21600 6111 4869 4235 7841 11310 3131 5809 14100 37780 23620 2787 7899 30780 8494 7465 10320 4209 20080 23240 11790 7827 26730 30920 3006 4833 8163 6381 4771 18030 9578 8760 6631 5815 7310 29650 12410 5221 7009 4947 5214 5495 4756 13730 8156 6336 3840 10220 5468 22320 7296 11930 4184 12910 5061 20700 7910 7606 20650 4309 8853 7015 26820 6919 8186 4948 26320 6121 5644 24650 7784 7816 7586 6757 14940 8905 5988 7552 19610 12180 33410 17300 24150 9375 61870 36250 4905 21600 6579 6859 48310 20310 12660 52600 8141 26030 2670 3422 16150 2208 3260 6785 12400 19970 4371 6136 7282 23390 8403 35340 5955 8621 6352 5513 9249 10000 12430 4356 6030 18040 17420 7378 30490 8458 4934 22870 9406 9628 15440 9101 14220 13730 10830 32740 9280 6186 9218 4588 10780 2607 21180 6411 6074 21040 6537 5495 6836 7695 1645 1862 23020 34050 5534 5344 23800 4900 6849 42940 14950 15310 14610 5933 4771 5753 7318 15120 1635 5284 7500 5489 4658 5855 8055 5452 8629 11310 14620 14740 22360 7397 7790 17020 8504 5313 6007 20780 15870 19890 5155 22010 5455 15870 13340 11370 18240 5397 5528 2961 10890 9952 5326 2901 11420 6240 17830 8012 4202 28670 16430 5657 5114 25410 25630 24820 22020 17740 7127 7864 5787 4887 8190 6324 8887 4674 4077 6440 14010 28940 17090 4899 8427 24210 6816 8170 24700 6059 5299 6428 10640 6615 5562 12180
2021-04-11 2879 5044 8586 8202 9581 9763 11640 3833 23510 30250 19150 4253 17600 8181 8071 8189 13420 22330 100800 7030 18040 9172 5925 25880 4898 25200 7034 49060 10800 6760 28320 6871 14440 30590 6029 24310 6225 9088 7153 9905 17210 14400 5622 14000 7101 10050 8201 8321 15900 12440 12650 3735 9034 20820 21620 6115 4872 4238 7852 11320 3133 5821 14110 37810 23640 2790 7903 30800 8502 7470 10330 4213 20100 23290 11800 7830 26760 30930 3010 4836 8166 6393 4775 18080 9586 8769 6634 5823 7315 29670 12410 5225 7015 4950 5216 5503 4757 13740 8167 6339 3844 10230 5471 22330 7297 11940 4187 12920 5063 20700 7915 7613 20660 4314 8862 7020 26830 6927 8190 4953 26350 6133 5647 24660 7789 7825 7596 6759 14940 8912 5997 7556 19640 12190 33450 17310 24170 9379 61900 36290 4907 21610 6586 6865 48320 20340 12660 52640 8157 26030 2676 3423 16170 2211 3263 6789 12410 19980 4373 6140 7289 23410 8410 35360 5962 8640 6358 5520 9270 10010 12440 4370 6030 18050 17440 7384 30500 8464 4939 22890 9411 9632 15460 9102 14230 13730 10840 32760 9287 6190 9222 4592 10780 2608 21210 6413 6077 21070 6550 5501 6841 7698 1649 1864 23030 34070 5541 5349 23810 4910 6851 42950 14960 15330 14620 5936 4773 5759 7322 15130 1636 5294 7519 5492 4661 5864 8058 5458 8629 11310 14650 14750 22370 7404 7793 17030 8505 5317 6017 20790 15890 19910 5160 22030 5457 15870 13350 11390 18250 5407 5530 2963 10890 9959 5331 2903 11430 6245 17830 8016 4205 28680 16450 5660 5120 25450 25650 24840 22030 17750 7132 7868 5790 4894 8195 6329 8890 4685 4084 6446 14020 28990 17110 4901 8434 24220 6821 8175 24720 6065 5301 6433 10650 6618 5567 12190
2021-04-12 2881 5048 8590 8208 9592 9766 11640 3835 23530 30260 19180 4256 17600 8188 8082 8195 13430 22340 100800 7038 18050 9176 5927 25900 4909 25210 7039 49170 10800 6771 28330 6873 14440 30620 6032 24320 6227 9090 7159 9910 17220 14410 5627 14010 7107 10050 8203 8321 15920 12460 12660 3738 9039 20840 21640 6121 4875 4241 7862 11330 3135 5836 14120 37840 23670 2794 7903 30810 8509 7479 10330 4217 20130 23350 11810 7834 26790 30960 3015 4837 8168 6403 4779 18130 9590 8775 6638 5829 7318 29680 12420 5229 7021 4953 5220 5513 4758 13750 8170 6343 3847 10230 5471 22340 7298 11950 4190 12930 5065 20710 7915 7618 20680 4318 8876 7025 26840 6932 8194 4958 26370 6145 5649 24670 7794 7833 7608 6761 14950 8920 6005 7563 19670 12200 33500 17310 24190 9384 61950 36330 4910 21620 6590 6871 48330 20370 12670 52720 8176 26040 2681 3426 16180 2213 3266 6792 12420 20000 4374 6145 7302 23430 8420 35380 5965 8657 6365 5526 9291 10010 12460 4382 6037 18070 17460 7390 30520 8468 4943 22900 9418 9638 15470 9111 14230 13740 10850 32770 9295 6193 9226 4597 10790 2610 21240 6417 6080 21100 6563 5506 6845 7701 1652 1866 23060 34090 5548 5359 23820 4919 6854 42980 14970 15340 14630 5941 4775 5764 7329 15150 1638 5308 7537 5495 4665 5873 8062 5472 8634 11320 14660 14750 22380 7410 7796 17030 8507 5320 6026 20800 15920 19940 5169 22040 5460 15880 13350 11410 18270 5412 5532 2965 10900 9966 5336 2904 11440 6249 17840 8020 4208 28700 16460 5663 5126 25500 25670 24850 22040 17770 7137 7872 5792 4899 8199 6333 8898 4696 4090 6452 14030 29020 17130 4903 8447 24220 6827 8180 24740 6071 5302 6439 10660 6624 5572 12200
2021-04-13 2882 5052 8590 8213 9596 9768 11650 3836 23540 30280 19210 4258 17600 8195 8087 8196 13430 22350 100800 7042 18060 9177 5929 25920 4915 25220 7044 49270 10810 6779 28350 6874 14450 30630 6034 24320 6230 9093 7164 9912 17230 14420 5631 14020 7109 10060 8205 8321 15940 12470 12660 3741 9043 20840 21650 6126 4879 4244 7871 11340 3138 5847 14130 37870 23690 2797 7903 30820 8515 7483 10340 4220 20150 23380 11820 7836 26800 30970 3019 4838 8171 6411 4782 18160 9594 8777 6640 5832 7322 29690 12420 5232 7025 4955 5220 5518 4759 13760 8174 6345 3847 10230 5472 22360 7299 11950 4193 12940 5067 20710 7915 7623 20690 4322 8884 7029 26850 6932 8197 4961 26390 6156 5650 24690 7797 7839 7615 6764 14960 8927 6013 7567 19690 12210 33530 17310 24200 9390 61970 36370 4912 21620 6593 6874 48350 20400 12670 52760 8187 26040 2685 3427 16180 2215 3268 6794 12420 20010 4376 6147 7308 23450 8420 35390 5972 8672 6370 5530 9312 10010 12470 4393 6037 18090 17470 7394 30530 8474 4948 22930 9428 9640 15500 9116 14240 13740 10850 32790 9299 6197 9228 4600 10800 2611 21250 6419 6082 21120 6573 5510 6848 7703 1656 1867 23070 34100 5554 5365 23830 4927 6856 42990 14970 15360 14640 5942 4778 5768 7332 15150 1639 5322 7553 5498 4668 5881 8065 5476 8635 11330 14680 14760 22390 7415 7800 17040 8507 5323 6033 20800 15930 19960 5171 22050 5462 15890 13350 11420 18280 5417 5534 2966 10910 9968 5340 2905 11450 6253 17850 8021 4211 28710 16470 5665 5131 25540 25690 24860 22050 17770 7141 7876 5794 4910 8201 6336 8899 4704 4095 6458 14030 29040 17140 4905 8450 24230 6831 8185 24750 6075 5307 6442 10660 6624 5575 12200
2021-04-14 2883 5054 8595 8224 9597 9772 11660 3838 23550 30290 19260 4260 17610 8201 8093 8198 13440 22360 100900 7051 18070 9181 5930 25940 4926 25230 7048 49330 10810 6785 28350 6876 14460 30640 6038 24330 6232 9096 7167 9916 17250 14420 5635 14020 7111 10060 8207 8321 15950 12480 12670 3743 9046 20860 21660 6129 4881 4247 7880 11340 3140 5860 14130 37890 23700 2800 7904 30830 8520 7491 10350 4224 20150 23410 11830 7838 26820 30980 3023 4840 8173 6419 4784 18170 9599 8781 6642 5836 7325 29700 12420 5236 7029 4957 5222 5527 4760 13770 8181 6347 3848 10230 5472 22370 7299 11960 4195 12940 5069 20710 7916 7626 20710 4326 8888 7033 26860 6936 8200 4967 26410 6166 5654 24700 7804 7844 7625 6767 14970 8934 6020 7574 19730 12220 33590 17320 24220 9394 62050 36410 4914 21630 6597 6877 48370 20430 12670 52800 8202 26040 2689 3431 16190 2217 3271 6796 12430 20030 4377 6150 7316 23460 8425 35410 5981 8687 6374 5535 9331 10020 12480 4403 6043 18110 17490 7397 30540 8481 4952 22950 9435 9643 15530 9122 14240 13750 10860 32800 9303 6200 9233 4603 10810 2612 21270 6422 6084 21150 6582 5513 6850 7706 1659 1868 23080 34130 5560 5371 23840 4934 6858 43050 14980 15370 14650 5946 4780 5772 7338 15160 1640 5336 7569 5501 4671 5888 8069 5483 8636 11330 14700 14770 22410 7419 7802 17050 8509 5326 6039 20820 15950 19980 5178 22070 5464 15890 13360 11440 18290 5422 5536 2968 10910 9972 5345 2907 11450 6256 17850 8022 4213 28720 16480 5667 5135 25590 25710 24870 22060 17780 7146 7880 5796 4918 8203 6340 8901 4712 4100 6463 14040 29070 17150 4907 8457 24240 6836 8191 24770 6079 5309 6445 10670 6626 5578 12210

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-04-08 to 2021-04-14

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-04-07 2874 5026 8551 8183 9562 9736 11604 3825 23439 30190 19007 4243 17573 8144 8046 8171 13384 22265 100492 6988 17986 9165 5919 25788 4856 25155 7009 48469 10770 6697 28286 6864 14419 30535 5989 24260 6215 9074 7086 9861 17117 14336 5592 13967 7063 10012 8192 8320 15806 12364 12621 3722 9012 20709 21593 6091 4848 4223 7805 11271 3125 5725 14051 37673 23522 2778 7890 30730 8467 7440 10292 4195 19971 23030 11749 7812 26596 30817 2991 4822 8152 6337 4754 17892 9555 8731 6605 5781 7294 29599 12388 5207 6984 4936 5212 5453 4754 13678 8119 6329 3826 10215 5462 22253 7291 11895 4171 12871 5055 20691 7906 7580 20581 4291 8814 6997 26780 6887 8171 4925 26242 6078 5635 24607 7764 7794 7543 6753 14899 8880 5957 7526 19503 12151 33325 17293 24085 9344 61724 36067 4893 21561 6547 6833 48261 20176 12632 52434 8114 26016 2650 3412 16108 2199 3248 6773 12361 19911 4364 6113 7221 23309 8367 35285 5943 8552 6326 5488 9174 9976 12380 4307 6022 17963 17333 7354 30440 8420 4916 22827 9372 9604 15342 9072 14171 13716 10807 32662 9247 6171 9203 4570 10745 2601 21079 6394 6065 20953 6488 5471 6817 7684 1633 1856 23003 33891 5511 5309 23765 4863 6840 42875 14906 15261 14552 5922 4762 5732 7272 15071 1630 5234 7429 5481 4646 5821 8045 5401 8627 11279 14539 14705 22300 7373 7777 16980 8497 5289 5968 20756 15767 19801 5143 21951 5446 15834 13323 11294 18198 5365 5518 2955 10866 9904 5313 2897 11383 6226 17819 7993 4191 28616 16350 5639 5091 25166 25524 24777 21956 17720 7110 7853 5777 4876 8162 6301 8881 4631 4052 6414 13982 28843 17036 4892 8380 24166 6795 8139 24616 6033 5286 6398 10602 6613 5527 12151
2021-04-08 2875 5030 8553 8192 9566 9739 11610 3826 23450 30210 19040 4246 17580 8149 8051 8175 13390 22270 100500 6997 18000 9167 5922 25810 4865 25160 7013 48550 10770 6700 28300 6866 14420 30540 5994 24270 6216 9077 7094 9868 17130 14350 5595 13970 7065 10020 8194 8323 15820 12380 12620 3724 9016 20720 21600 6096 4852 4226 7811 11280 3128 5739 14060 37700 23540 2782 7893 30740 8471 7446 10300 4199 19980 23070 11760 7814 26610 30830 2995 4824 8156 6344 4760 17910 9559 8738 6607 5787 7297 29610 12390 5209 6988 4938 5214 5463 4755 13680 8125 6331 3828 10220 5463 22260 7294 11900 4173 12880 5056 20690 7909 7584 20590 4294 8824 7001 26790 6893 8173 4930 26260 6091 5638 24620 7770 7801 7555 6757 14910 8886 5965 7532 19530 12160 33360 17300 24090 9347 61810 36110 4895 21570 6551 6836 48280 20200 12640 52480 8130 26020 2655 3414 16120 2201 3250 6775 12370 19930 4365 6117 7229 23330 8373 35300 5946 8565 6329 5493 9195 9990 12390 4315 6025 17980 17350 7357 30450 8426 4920 22850 9383 9609 15370 9079 14180 13730 10820 32680 9251 6173 9207 4573 10750 2602 21110 6396 6066 20980 6496 5474 6820 7686 1636 1857 23010 33920 5516 5315 23780 4869 6843 42940 14910 15280 14560 5927 4765 5735 7278 15080 1631 5245 7440 5487 4649 5826 8049 5407 8627 11280 14560 14710 22300 7376 7781 16990 8500 5292 5974 20770 15790 19820 5149 21970 5449 15840 13330 11310 18210 5372 5520 2957 10870 9912 5319 2898 11390 6229 17820 7995 4193 28630 16360 5641 5096 25210 25550 24790 21970 17730 7113 7856 5779 4884 8166 6304 8882 4638 4058 6418 13990 28860 17050 4894 8390 24180 6800 8147 24630 6037 5289 6402 10610 6613 5531 12160
2021-04-09 2877 5034 8556 8193 9568 9744 11620 3828 23470 30220 19070 4247 17580 8156 8057 8178 13400 22290 100600 7005 18010 9169 5923 25830 4872 25180 7019 48610 10780 6709 28300 6868 14430 30560 6000 24280 6217 9080 7102 9876 17150 14360 5601 13980 7069 10020 8195 8325 15840 12390 12630 3727 9019 20740 21620 6101 4857 4230 7819 11290 3130 5756 14070 37720 23560 2786 7897 30750 8478 7452 10310 4203 19990 23110 11760 7817 26640 30850 2999 4827 8159 6355 4770 17920 9565 8744 6612 5793 7301 29620 12390 5213 6993 4941 5216 5471 4756 13700 8134 6333 3830 10220 5464 22270 7296 11910 4176 12890 5057 20700 7911 7588 20600 4300 8835 7005 26800 6898 8177 4937 26280 6105 5639 24630 7777 7805 7560 6760 14920 8896 5974 7540 19560 12170 33400 17300 24110 9350 61910 36150 4897 21580 6556 6841 48290 20240 12640 52530 8142 26030 2660 3416 16130 2204 3252 6778 12380 19940 4367 6122 7237 23350 8378 35310 5950 8582 6336 5499 9212 9990 12410 4327 6030 18000 17360 7362 30470 8432 4926 22870 9391 9613 15380 9090 14180 13740 10820 32700 9258 6176 9210 4577 10760 2604 21130 6399 6069 21000 6507 5480 6823 7690 1638 1858 23020 33930 5521 5319 23790 4880 6845 43010 14920 15290 14570 5930 4767 5741 7286 15090 1633 5256 7453 5489 4652 5835 8055 5417 8629 11290 14580 14720 22310 7382 7784 17000 8504 5296 5984 20790 15800 19840 5152 21980 5450 15850 13330 11330 18230 5379 5522 2958 10880 9921 5324 2900 11400 6234 17830 7999 4195 28640 16370 5644 5100 25260 25570 24800 21980 17740 7116 7860 5782 4889 8173 6308 8884 4648 4064 6424 14000 28870 17060 4896 8400 24190 6804 8153 24640 6043 5291 6408 10620 6616 5536 12160
2021-04-10 2878 5037 8558 8196 9570 9748 11620 3830 23480 30230 19100 4248 17580 8162 8062 8179 13400 22300 100600 7012 18020 9171 5926 25850 4878 25180 7025 48680 10780 6715 28310 6869 14430 30560 6004 24290 6219 9082 7107 9881 17160 14380 5605 13990 7071 10030 8196 8327 15850 12400 12630 3729 9021 20750 21630 6105 4859 4232 7828 11290 3132 5770 14080 37740 23580 2789 7900 30760 8484 7459 10310 4206 20000 23130 11770 7820 26650 30870 3003 4827 8161 6363 4778 17930 9569 8748 6616 5798 7304 29630 12400 5215 6998 4944 5217 5479 4757 13700 8138 6335 3831 10220 5465 22280 7298 11910 4179 12900 5058 20700 7913 7591 20610 4304 8843 7008 26810 6902 8181 4942 26300 6117 5641 24640 7782 7809 7567 6762 14920 8903 5983 7545 19580 12180 33430 17310 24110 9353 61980 36190 4899 21580 6560 6845 48300 20260 12640 52560 8154 26040 2665 3419 16140 2206 3255 6780 12390 19960 4368 6126 7243 23370 8381 35330 5954 8595 6340 5504 9228 9990 12420 4337 6034 18010 17370 7366 30480 8438 4930 22890 9399 9616 15390 9098 14190 13750 10830 32720 9262 6179 9212 4580 10760 2605 21140 6401 6071 21020 6518 5484 6826 7693 1641 1859 23030 33940 5526 5323 23790 4888 6847 43080 14930 15300 14580 5931 4769 5745 7293 15100 1634 5264 7466 5494 4655 5842 8060 5424 8630 11290 14590 14730 22320 7387 7788 17000 8507 5298 5991 20810 15820 19850 5156 21990 5452 15850 13340 11350 18240 5383 5524 2959 10880 9928 5328 2901 11400 6238 17830 8002 4197 28640 16380 5646 5104 25290 25590 24810 21990 17740 7118 7864 5783 4894 8178 6310 8885 4656 4069 6426 14010 28880 17070 4897 8409 24190 6808 8158 24650 6047 5293 6412 10630 6617 5542 12170
2021-04-11 2880 5040 8560 8199 9574 9751 11630 3831 23490 30240 19130 4249 17580 8168 8068 8184 13410 22310 100700 7019 18040 9175 5928 25880 4885 25190 7029 48740 10780 6719 28320 6870 14430 30570 6007 24300 6220 9085 7111 9886 17170 14390 5609 13990 7073 10030 8198 8328 15870 12410 12640 3731 9023 20760 21650 6108 4862 4235 7834 11300 3134 5781 14090 37770 23600 2792 7904 30760 8490 7465 10320 4209 20010 23170 11780 7822 26680 30880 3008 4829 8163 6371 4785 17940 9573 8754 6618 5805 7308 29640 12400 5218 7001 4946 5219 5485 4758 13710 8144 6337 3833 10220 5467 22290 7300 11920 4181 12900 5059 20710 7916 7595 20620 4309 8852 7011 26820 6908 8183 4947 26320 6128 5643 24660 7787 7815 7573 6765 14930 8910 5991 7548 19600 12180 33460 17310 24120 9354 62050 36230 4901 21590 6565 6848 48310 20290 12650 52590 8169 26050 2669 3420 16140 2208 3257 6782 12390 19970 4370 6129 7245 23390 8385 35340 5959 8609 6344 5509 9243 9990 12430 4346 6037 18030 17380 7369 30500 8443 4935 22910 9405 9618 15400 9103 14190 13760 10830 32730 9266 6181 9216 4584 10770 2606 21160 6402 6072 21050 6527 5487 6828 7695 1644 1860 23040 33960 5530 5326 23800 4896 6849 43130 14930 15320 14590 5934 4772 5750 7296 15110 1635 5273 7478 5497 4658 5849 8065 5429 8631 11300 14610 14740 22320 7391 7791 17010 8510 5301 5997 20820 15840 19860 5160 22000 5454 15860 13340 11360 18250 5390 5525 2960 10880 9933 5333 2902 11410 6242 17830 8005 4200 28650 16390 5648 5106 25320 25610 24810 22000 17750 7120 7868 5785 4901 8183 6314 8887 4664 4073 6430 14010 28900 17080 4897 8416 24200 6811 8162 24660 6050 5296 6416 10630 6619 5545 12170
2021-04-12 2881 5043 8564 8205 9582 9755 11630 3833 23500 30260 19160 4250 17590 8173 8073 8189 13410 22310 100800 7025 18050 9177 5931 25900 4895 25200 7034 48810 10790 6727 28330 6872 14430 30600 6012 24300 6221 9087 7118 9892 17180 14400 5613 13990 7078 10030 8198 8329 15880 12420 12640 3734 9026 20780 21660 6112 4866 4237 7839 11300 3137 5796 14100 37790 23620 2795 7906 30770 8495 7472 10330 4212 20030 23220 11780 7824 26700 30900 3012 4832 8165 6378 4791 17960 9577 8760 6622 5812 7311 29650 12400 5221 7004 4948 5222 5494 4759 13720 8147 6340 3836 10220 5468 22300 7301 11920 4184 12910 5060 20710 7918 7599 20630 4313 8862 7013 26830 6913 8186 4953 26340 6139 5644 24670 7790 7822 7583 6768 14930 8917 5998 7555 19620 12190 33520 17320 24130 9358 62150 36260 4903 21600 6568 6851 48320 20310 12650 52650 8185 26060 2673 3422 16150 2210 3259 6784 12400 19980 4371 6134 7257 23410 8391 35360 5962 8622 6348 5513 9258 10000 12440 4354 6041 18040 17400 7372 30510 8447 4939 22930 9412 9621 15410 9113 14200 13770 10840 32740 9271 6184 9220 4586 10770 2607 21190 6405 6074 21090 6535 5489 6830 7698 1646 1861 23060 33970 5534 5333 23800 4903 6851 43210 14940 15330 14590 5937 4774 5755 7304 15120 1636 5286 7496 5500 4661 5857 8070 5441 8634 11300 14630 14750 22330 7394 7794 17020 8513 5303 6003 20840 15870 19870 5165 22010 5456 15870 13350 11380 18270 5398 5526 2961 10890 9938 5338 2903 11410 6246 17840 8008 4202 28660 16400 5651 5109 25360 25640 24820 22010 17760 7122 7871 5787 4907 8187 6318 8891 4671 4078 6436 14020 28910 17100 4898 8424 24200 6814 8167 24670 6054 5297 6420 10640 6623 5550 12180
2021-04-13 2882 5045 8566 8210 9590 9759 11640 3834 23520 30270 19190 4252 17590 8179 8078 8190 13420 22320 100800 7031 18060 9180 5933 25920 4903 25210 7039 48860 10790 6737 28340 6873 14440 30610 6018 24310 6222 9089 7126 9896 17190 14410 5617 14000 7082 10040 8200 8330 15890 12430 12640 3735 9027 20790 21670 6116 4870 4240 7846 11310 3139 5812 14110 37820 23640 2799 7909 30780 8500 7477 10330 4214 20040 23250 11790 7826 26720 30920 3016 4833 8167 6385 4798 17970 9581 8764 6626 5819 7313 29660 12400 5223 7008 4950 5223 5500 4760 13730 8151 6343 3837 10230 5468 22310 7303 11920 4186 12920 5061 20720 7919 7602 20630 4318 8870 7015 26830 6917 8189 4958 26350 6148 5646 24680 7797 7828 7589 6770 14940 8924 6005 7559 19640 12200 33560 17320 24140 9363 62240 36320 4904 21600 6573 6854 48340 20340 12650 52690 8196 26060 2677 3425 16160 2212 3261 6786 12410 20000 4373 6138 7264 23430 8393 35370 5966 8635 6353 5516 9272 10000 12460 4361 6044 18060 17410 7375 30520 8453 4944 22950 9423 9623 15420 9122 14200 13790 10840 32760 9277 6186 9222 4589 10780 2608 21210 6407 6076 21110 6544 5492 6832 7701 1648 1862 23080 33970 5539 5338 23810 4910 6853 43280 14950 15340 14600 5939 4775 5758 7310 15120 1638 5300 7517 5503 4664 5863 8076 5450 8636 11300 14650 14760 22330 7397 7797 17020 8516 5308 6008 20860 15890 19880 5169 22020 5458 15870 13350 11390 18290 5404 5528 2962 10900 9942 5343 2905 11410 6250 17840 8011 4204 28670 16410 5654 5112 25410 25660 24830 22030 17770 7124 7875 5789 4913 8192 6323 8892 4677 4081 6442 14030 28920 17110 4899 8430 24210 6818 8172 24690 6058 5301 6426 10640 6625 5554 12180
2021-04-14 2883 5048 8571 8216 9592 9764 11650 3836 23530 30280 19220 4253 17590 8184 8085 8192 13430 22330 100800 7038 18070 9184 5934 25940 4912 25220 7044 48910 10790 6742 28350 6875 14440 30630 6024 24320 6223 9092 7134 9902 17210 14420 5621 14000 7086 10050 8202 8331 15900 12430 12640 3738 9029 20800 21680 6120 4873 4242 7853 11310 3141 5829 14120 37840 23660 2802 7913 30790 8505 7485 10340 4217 20050 23290 11800 7827 26750 30940 3020 4835 8169 6392 4804 17980 9584 8768 6629 5826 7316 29670 12410 5225 7014 4952 5225 5506 4760 13750 8156 6345 3840 10230 5469 22310 7304 11930 4188 12920 5062 20720 7921 7604 20640 4321 8878 7018 26840 6921 8192 4964 26370 6159 5649 24700 7805 7833 7596 6773 14950 8930 6012 7565 19670 12210 33600 17320 24140 9366 62340 36360 4906 21610 6579 6856 48350 20360 12660 52730 8210 26070 2681 3427 16170 2214 3264 6788 12420 20010 4374 6142 7275 23450 8397 35390 5972 8648 6357 5520 9287 10010 12470 4369 6049 18080 17420 7377 30530 8463 4948 22970 9434 9625 15440 9131 14210 13800 10850 32770 9283 6188 9226 4592 10790 2609 21230 6409 6079 21150 6552 5494 6834 7703 1651 1863 23090 34000 5544 5344 23820 4916 6854 43350 14950 15350 14610 5942 4778 5762 7318 15130 1639 5313 7536 5505 4668 5873 8080 5461 8638 11310 14660 14770 22340 7400 7800 17030 8518 5313 6012 20890 15910 19890 5174 22030 5460 15880 13360 11410 18310 5410 5529 2964 10900 9946 5348 2906 11420 6253 17850 8014 4206 28670 16420 5656 5114 25470 25680 24840 22050 17780 7126 7879 5792 4920 8196 6328 8893 4684 4084 6448 14030 28930 17120 4900 8436 24220 6820 8179 24710 6061 5304 6429 10650 6626 5560 12190

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.