COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-05-02


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-03 to 2020-05-09

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-05-02 182260 1001267 15558 49517 6917 7755 164967 9407 216582 5176 166976 2620 2088 2942 21176 209328 40236 13375 25190 12732 22082 7809 29817
2020-05-03 185000 1008000 15600 50000 6940 7810 166000 9500 217000 5250 167000 2630 2100 2970 21500 211000 40500 13600 25400 13000 22600 7850 29900
2020-05-04 189000 1014000 15700 50600 6960 7870 167000 9700 218000 5340 168000 2650 2110 3020 21800 213000 40900 13900 25600 13300 23100 7890 30100
2020-05-05 194000 1021000 15700 51100 6980 7930 168000 9800 218000 5430 169000 2660 2120 3090 22100 215000 41300 14200 25900 13500 23700 7930 30200
2020-05-06 199000 1026000 15800 51600 7000 7990 170000 9900 219000 5530 171000 2670 2130 3150 22400 217000 41700 14500 26100 13800 24300 7970 30300
2020-05-07 204000 1032000 15800 52100 7020 8050 171000 10100 220000 5620 172000 2690 2140 3210 22700 219000 42100 14800 26400 14100 24900 8010 30500
2020-05-08 209000 1037000 15900 52700 7050 8110 172000 10200 221000 5720 173000 2700 2150 3280 23100 220000 42500 15100 26700 14400 25500 8060 30600
2020-05-09 214000 1042000 16000 53200 7070 8170 173000 10400 223000 5820 174000 2720 2160 3350 23400 222000 42900 15400 26900 14700 26100 8100 30700

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-03 to 2020-05-09

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
2020-05-02 6799 97100 57926 39699 10843 96448 6176 22088 8928 6336 124375 1132539 53753 16118 29287 4797 35455 27268 58505 29140 66263 43191 123717 313008 15253
2020-05-03 6810 104000 59200 42200 11100 97000 6190 23500 9100 6650 127000 1158000 54900 16500 29600 4950 35600 27600 62000 29300 67500 43800 125000 317000 15400
2020-05-04 6820 113000 60800 45100 11400 98000 6210 25200 9300 7030 129000 1187000 56500 16900 30000 5140 36000 28100 66300 29500 69200 44600 128000 321000 15700
2020-05-05 6830 122000 62500 48300 11700 99000 6250 27000 9500 7430 131000 1218000 58000 17300 30500 5370 36500 28700 70800 29800 70900 45500 130000 325000 15900
2020-05-06 6840 132000 64300 51700 12000 100000 6290 29000 9800 7850 133000 1250000 59600 17800 31000 5610 37100 29400 75700 30100 72600 46300 132000 329000 16200
2020-05-07 6850 143000 66100 55400 12400 101000 6330 31000 10000 8290 135000 1283000 61300 18300 31500 5860 37600 30100 81000 30400 74300 47200 134000 333000 16400
2020-05-08 6860 155000 68000 59400 12700 102000 6360 33300 10300 8760 138000 1318000 63000 18800 32100 6130 38200 30800 86600 30800 76200 48100 137000 338000 16700
2020-05-09 6870 168000 70000 63600 13100 103000 6390 35600 10500 9260 140000 1353000 64700 19300 32700 6400 38800 31600 92600 31100 78000 49000 139000 342000 16900

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-03 to 2020-05-09

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-05-02 182260 1001267 15558 49517 6917 7755 164967 9407 216582 5176 166976 2620 2088 2942 21176 209328 40236 13375 25190 12732 22082 7809 29817
2020-05-03 187000 1009000 15600 50100 6940 7810 166000 9500 218000 5250 168000 2630 2100 2990 21500 211000 40600 13600 25400 13000 22600 7850 29900
2020-05-04 192000 1017000 15700 50600 6960 7860 167000 9600 220000 5350 168000 2650 2110 3050 21800 213000 41000 13900 25600 13200 23100 7880 30100
2020-05-05 197000 1024000 15700 51100 6980 7910 168000 9800 222000 5440 169000 2660 2120 3110 22100 215000 41400 14200 25700 13500 23700 7920 30200
2020-05-06 201000 1031000 15800 51600 7000 7950 169000 9900 223000 5530 170000 2670 2130 3170 22400 216000 41800 14400 25900 13700 24200 7950 30300
2020-05-07 206000 1038000 15800 52200 7020 8000 170000 10000 225000 5620 171000 2680 2140 3230 22700 218000 42100 14700 26000 13900 24800 7990 30400
2020-05-08 211000 1044000 15900 52700 7050 8050 172000 10100 227000 5720 172000 2700 2150 3300 23000 220000 42500 15000 26200 14200 25300 8020 30500
2020-05-09 217000 1050000 15900 53200 7070 8100 173000 10300 228000 5810 173000 2710 2160 3360 23300 222000 42900 15300 26300 14500 25900 8050 30600

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-03 to 2020-05-09

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
2020-05-02 6799 97100 57926 39699 10843 96448 6176 22088 8928 6336 124375 1132539 53753 16118 29287 4797 35455 27268 58505 29140 66263 43191 123717 313008 15253
2020-05-03 6820 104000 59500 42300 11100 97000 6220 23700 9100 6650 126000 1159000 55300 16400 29800 5030 35900 28100 62500 29500 67900 44100 126000 317000 15500
2020-05-04 6830 112000 61200 45300 11400 98000 6270 25500 9300 7020 129000 1185000 56800 16800 30300 5270 36500 28900 66500 29900 69500 44900 128000 321000 15700
2020-05-05 6840 119000 62900 48500 11700 99000 6330 27300 9600 7410 131000 1212000 58300 17200 30900 5520 37000 29700 70700 30300 71100 45800 130000 325000 16000
2020-05-06 6860 128000 64800 52000 12100 100000 6380 29300 9800 7820 133000 1238000 59900 17600 31500 5780 37600 30500 75100 30700 72700 46600 132000 329000 16200
2020-05-07 6870 137000 66700 55800 12400 101000 6430 31500 10000 8250 135000 1265000 61500 18000 32100 6060 38200 31300 79900 31000 74300 47500 134000 332000 16500
2020-05-08 6880 146000 68700 59900 12700 102000 6480 33800 10200 8710 137000 1293000 63100 18400 32600 6350 38800 32200 84900 31400 76000 48400 136000 336000 16700
2020-05-09 6890 156000 70800 64300 13100 102000 6520 36200 10500 9190 139000 1320000 64800 18800 33200 6660 39400 33100 90200 31800 77800 49300 139000 340000 17000

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-05-03 to 2020-05-11

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
2020-05-02 182260 1001267 15558 49517 6917 7755 164967 9407 216582 5176 166976 2620 2088 2942 21176 209328 40236 13375 25190 12732 22082 7809 29817 6799 97100 57926 39699 10843 96448 6176 22088 8928 6336 124375 1132539 53753 16118 29287 4797 35455 27268 58505 29140 66263 43191 123717 313008 15253
2020-05-03 186000 1007000 15600 49900 6920 7810 166000 9510 217000 5220 167000 2620 2100 2960 21400 211000 40400 13600 25400 12900 22400 7840 29900 6810 103000 58900 40800 11000 97000 6170 23100 9100 6470 126000 1139000 54700 16300 29300 4890 35600 27600 60400 29300 66800 43400 125000 315000 15400
2020-05-04 190000 1014000 15600 50300 6940 7850 167000 9600 218000 5270 168000 2620 2110 3000 21500 212000 40700 13800 25600 13100 22700 7860 30000 6830 108000 60200 41900 11200 98000 6230 24100 9300 6690 128000 1158000 55500 16600 29700 5030 36100 28200 62400 29600 67600 44000 126000 317000 15700
2020-05-05 193000 1020000 15700 50600 6950 7900 167000 9680 220000 5340 168000 2620 2110 3040 21700 213000 40900 13900 25800 13300 23000 7890 30100 6850 112000 61400 43100 11400 99000 6280 24900 9500 6810 130000 1174000 56300 16800 29900 5160 36500 28700 63600 29800 68100 44400 128000 320000 15800
2020-05-06 196000 1026000 15700 50900 6960 7940 168000 9750 221000 5390 168000 2620 2120 3070 21800 215000 41100 14000 25900 13300 23200 7910 30200 6860 115000 62300 44200 11600 99000 6330 25700 9700 6910 132000 1189000 56700 16900 30100 5280 36800 29200 65800 30000 68700 44800 129000 322000 16000
2020-05-07 198000 1031000 15700 51300 6970 7970 169000 9810 221000 5440 169000 2620 2130 3090 22000 216000 41400 14200 26000 13500 23500 7930 30300 6880 118000 63100 45000 11700 100000 6360 26300 9800 7050 133000 1202000 57300 17100 30300 5350 37200 29600 66600 30100 68900 45100 130000 324000 16100
2020-05-08 201000 1036000 15800 51500 6980 8000 169000 9870 222000 5490 169000 2620 2140 3110 22100 217000 41600 14300 26100 13600 23600 7950 30400 6890 120000 63900 45200 11800 100000 6400 27000 10000 7080 135000 1209000 57500 17100 30500 5430 37500 29900 67500 30200 69200 45200 131000 325000 16200
2020-05-09 202000 1040000 15800 51900 7010 8010 170000 9910 223000 5530 169000 2620 2150 3110 22200 217000 41800 14400 26300 13600 23800 7970 30400 6900 122000 64700 45500 11900 101000 6420 27500 10100 7200 136000 1216000 57700 17100 30800 5470 37800 30200 68100 30300 69600 45300 132000 327000 16300
2020-05-10 204000 1044000 15800 52200 7020 8040 170000 9960 224000 5550 169000 2620 2150 3130 22400 218000 42000 14400 26400 13700 23800 7990 30500 6900 124000 65300 45600 12000 101000 6450 28000 10200 7200 137000 1223000 57900 17100 31000 5540 38000 30400 68400 30400 69700 45600 133000 328000 16500
2020-05-11 206000 1048000 15800 52400 7030 8040 171000 9990 225000 5570 169000 2620 2160 3150 22600 219000 42200 14500 26600 13700 23900 8010 30500 6910 125000 66200 45700 12100 102000 6460 28400 10300 7200 138000 1230000 57900 17200 31200 5560 38200 30600 68500 30500 69700 45600 134000 329000 16500

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-05-02

UKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1003-2803-2604-1503-2503-2803-2804-0403-2704-0604-1204-0203-3004-1004-1303-2104-1004-1904-1004-1104-2303-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5962 29743 875 1470 287 284 6005 333 8153 181 13253 96 76 128 985 5700 1173 411 904 376 654 298 1205
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 39 11 15 27 25 25 24 42 22 11 20 30 27 35 35 28 28 47 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 31 11 14 15 25 14 24 26 25 15 22 24 17 29 33 23 25 44 19 12
Days since peak 22 35 37 17 38 35 35 28 36 26 20 30 33 22 19 42 22 13 22 21 9 36 40

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-05-02

AustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
Peak date03-28 --04-16 --04-2403-3104-02 --03-31 --04-1104-0904-2204-2404-22 --04-0304-07 --04-0404-2404-0404-0404-0404-02
Peak daily increment 411 1858 360 3107 180 361 4741 31665 1798 624 1198 1194 986 1782 3007 1659 3845 9745 528
Days from 100 to peak 18 36 40 35 24 17 23 37 45 40 34 19 22 19 43 17 20 27 26
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 27 38 28 25 13 17 20 34 35 29 13 17 13 30 13 13 15 22
Days since peak 35 16 8 32 30 32 21 23 10 8 10 29 25 28 8 28 28 28 30

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed