COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-06-06


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (last observation 2020-06-05).

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-07 to 2020-06-13

DateUKEUBECZDEDKESFRITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-06 284868 1175369 59072 9567 185450 11924 241310 187067 234801 47335 25986 34351 20290 43887
2020-06-07 286000 1178000 59200 9610 186000 11900 242000 187000 235000 47400 26000 34500 20400 44700
2020-06-08 288000 1180000 59300 9660 186000 12000 242000 187000 235000 47500 26200 34800 20500 45700
2020-06-09 290000 1183000 59400 9700 186000 12000 242000 187000 236000 47700 26500 35000 20700 46700
2020-06-10 291000 1185000 59500 9750 187000 12100 243000 188000 236000 47800 26800 35300 20800 47700
2020-06-11 293000 1187000 59600 9790 187000 12100 243000 188000 236000 48000 27100 35600 21000 48800
2020-06-12 295000 1188000 59700 9840 187000 12200 243000 188000 237000 48100 27400 35900 21100 49900
2020-06-13 296000 1190000 59900 9890 188000 12200 244000 188000 237000 48300 27700 36200 21300 51000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-07 to 2020-06-13

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-06 672846 96475 127745 36759 246622 30514 169425 113619 191758 21340 458102 45973 169218 1920061 19709 8837 25451 128593 27834 43563 9269 9833 62661 47816 21469 3139 126698 36997 10361 11280 42366 102780 57482 2524 54337 27405 13450 17039 34718 2816 15355 5009 163503 8192 9491 377316 38111 7059 4570 79505 13453 5367 25590 74470 10040 49397 23417 20571
2020-06-07 708000 97000 131000 38500 259000 31400 172000 118000 196000 21700 465000 48000 170000 1932000 19800 9100 26400 133000 28100 43700 9330 9900 64400 48100 21700 3170 128000 37300 10400 11600 42600 103000 58200 2540 54500 27600 13500 17200 35900 2830 15600 5030 164000 8240 9500 378000 38500 7130 4610 79900 13800 5400 25900 76900 10300 49800 23500 20900
2020-06-08 747000 98000 135000 40600 272000 32500 175000 124000 201000 22100 473000 50900 171000 1950000 19900 9500 27700 137000 28300 43900 9410 9900 66400 48600 22000 3190 128000 37700 10500 12000 43000 104000 59000 2570 54700 27900 13600 17500 37300 2840 15800 5060 165000 8300 9600 379000 38900 7210 4660 80400 14100 5450 26300 79600 10700 50500 23800 21200
2020-06-09 789000 98000 140000 42800 287000 33600 177000 130000 206000 22600 481000 53900 172000 1968000 20000 9900 29000 143000 28500 44100 9490 10000 68500 49200 22400 3220 129000 38100 10600 12400 43300 105000 59700 2600 54900 28300 13800 17700 38800 2860 16000 5100 165000 8400 9700 381000 39300 7290 4720 80900 14600 5510 26700 82400 11000 51200 24100 21600
2020-06-10 834000 99000 145000 45100 302000 34700 180000 136000 212000 23100 489000 57000 172000 1985000 20200 10300 30400 148000 28800 44400 9560 10000 70700 49800 22800 3260 130000 38500 10700 12700 43700 105000 60500 2640 55100 28700 13900 17900 40300 2890 16300 5150 166000 8500 9900 382000 39700 7370 4770 81400 15000 5570 27200 85400 11300 51900 24300 21900
2020-06-11 881000 100000 149000 47500 319000 35800 183000 142000 217000 23600 497000 60400 173000 2002000 20500 10800 31900 153000 29000 44600 9640 10100 72900 50400 23200 3300 131000 38900 10800 13200 44100 106000 61300 2670 55400 29200 14100 18100 41900 2920 16500 5200 167000 8610 10000 383000 40100 7460 4820 81900 15500 5630 27700 88500 11700 52600 24600 22300
2020-06-12 930000 100000 155000 50100 336000 37000 186000 149000 223000 24100 506000 64000 174000 2019000 20700 11200 33400 159000 29200 44800 9720 10100 75300 51000 23600 3340 132000 39300 10900 13600 44500 107000 62100 2700 55600 29600 14200 18400 43600 2950 16700 5260 167000 8710 10100 384000 40500 7540 4870 82400 16000 5680 28100 91700 12100 53300 24900 22600
2020-06-13 983000 101000 160000 52800 354000 38300 189000 156000 229000 24600 514000 67700 175000 2035000 21000 11700 35000 164000 29500 45000 9800 10200 77700 51600 24000 3380 133000 39700 11000 14000 44900 107000 62900 2730 55800 30000 14400 18600 45300 2990 17000 5310 168000 8820 10200 385000 40900 7630 4930 83000 16500 5740 28600 95000 12500 54100 25200 23000

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-07 to 2020-06-13

DateUKEUBECZDEDKESFRITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-06 284868 1175369 59072 9567 185450 11924 241310 187067 234801 47335 25986 34351 20290 43887
2020-06-07 286000 1179000 59200 9610 186000 12000 242000 187000 235000 47500 26200 34700 20500 44800
2020-06-08 288000 1183000 59300 9650 186000 12000 242000 187000 236000 47700 26500 35000 20600 45800
2020-06-09 290000 1186000 59500 9690 187000 12100 242000 187000 236000 47800 26800 35300 20800 46800
2020-06-10 291000 1189000 59600 9740 187000 12100 243000 187000 236000 48000 27200 35600 21000 47800
2020-06-11 293000 1191000 59700 9780 188000 12100 243000 187000 237000 48200 27500 35900 21100 48800
2020-06-12 294000 1194000 59800 9820 188000 12200 243000 187000 237000 48300 27800 36200 21300 49900
2020-06-13 296000 1196000 60000 9860 189000 12200 244000 187000 237000 48500 28200 36500 21500 50900

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-07 to 2020-06-13

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-06 672846 96475 127745 36759 246622 30514 169425 113619 191758 21340 458102 45973 169218 1920061 19709 8837 25451 128593 27834 43563 9269 9833 62661 47816 21469 3139 126698 36997 10361 11280 42366 102780 57482 2524 54337 27405 13450 17039 34718 2816 15355 5009 163503 8192 9491 377316 38111 7059 4570 79505 13453 5367 25590 74470 10040 49397 23417 20571
2020-06-07 708000 97000 131000 39200 259000 31400 172000 119000 196000 21800 466000 48900 170000 1940000 20000 9200 26600 133000 28100 43800 9340 9900 64600 48500 21800 3190 128000 37400 10400 11600 42700 104000 58200 2550 54500 27800 13600 17300 36100 2860 15600 5050 164000 8300 9600 378000 38500 7110 4610 80000 13900 5420 26100 77100 10400 50000 23700 20900
2020-06-08 746000 98000 136000 41200 273000 32400 175000 124000 200000 22300 474000 52000 171000 1959000 20400 9600 27900 138000 28300 44000 9420 9900 66700 49100 22100 3240 128000 37700 10500 11900 43100 104000 58900 2580 54700 28200 13800 17500 37500 2890 15800 5110 165000 8410 9700 380000 38900 7170 4640 80600 14300 5470 26500 79800 10700 50600 23900 21200
2020-06-09 785000 98000 140000 43300 288000 33400 177000 129000 204000 22900 482000 55200 172000 1977000 20700 10000 29200 144000 28500 44300 9490 10000 68800 49800 22400 3290 129000 38100 10600 12300 43500 105000 59600 2610 54900 28600 14000 17700 39100 2930 16000 5170 165000 8520 9900 381000 39200 7220 4680 81100 14700 5530 27000 82500 11100 51300 24200 21500
2020-06-10 827000 99000 145000 45500 303000 34500 180000 135000 208000 23400 490000 58600 173000 1995000 21100 10400 30500 149000 28700 44500 9560 10100 71100 50500 22700 3330 130000 38500 10700 12600 43900 106000 60300 2650 55000 29100 14200 17900 40700 2970 16200 5230 166000 8630 10000 382000 39600 7280 4710 81700 15200 5590 27500 85500 11500 52000 24500 21900
2020-06-11 871000 99000 149000 47800 319000 35700 183000 141000 212000 24000 498000 62200 173000 2013000 21400 10900 32000 155000 29000 44800 9640 10100 73400 51100 23000 3380 131000 38800 10800 13000 44300 106000 61000 2680 55200 29500 14300 18200 42400 3010 16400 5290 167000 8740 10200 383000 40000 7340 4740 82200 15600 5650 28000 88500 11800 52600 24800 22200
2020-06-12 918000 100000 154000 50200 337000 36800 185000 147000 216000 24500 506000 66100 174000 2031000 21800 11300 33400 160000 29200 45000 9710 10200 75900 51800 23300 3430 132000 39200 10900 13400 44700 107000 61700 2710 55300 29900 14500 18400 44200 3050 16600 5350 167000 8860 10300 384000 40400 7400 4780 82700 16100 5710 28500 91700 12200 53300 25100 22500
2020-06-13 967000 100000 159000 52800 355000 38000 188000 153000 221000 25100 515000 70200 175000 2048000 22200 11800 35000 166000 29400 45200 9790 10200 78400 52400 23600 3480 132000 39600 10900 13800 45100 108000 62400 2740 55500 30300 14700 18600 46100 3090 16800 5420 168000 8980 10500 385000 40800 7460 4810 83300 16600 5770 29000 95000 12700 54000 25400 22800

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-06-07 to 2020-06-15

DateUKEUBECZDEDKESFRITNLPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-06 284868 1175369 59072 9567 185450 11924 241310 187067 234801 47335 25986 34351 20290 43887 672846 96475 127745 36759 246622 30514 169425 113619 191758 21340 458102 45973 169218 1920061 19709 8837 25451 128593 27834 43563 9269 9833 62661 47816 21469 3139 126698 36997 10361 11280 42366 102780 57482 2524 54337 27405 13450 17039 34718 2816 15355 5009 163503 8192 9491 377316 38111 7059 4570 79505 13453 5367 25590 74470 10040 49397 23417 20571
2020-06-07 286000 1176000 59200 9610 186000 11900 242000 187000 235000 47400 26100 34500 20400 44800 696000 96900 131000 38800 256000 30800 172000 117000 196000 21900 465000 47900 170000 1930000 19700 9100 26300 130000 28000 43700 9330 9900 63900 48200 21600 3170 128000 37200 10400 11500 42600 104000 58000 2540 54500 27600 13500 17200 35400 2840 15500 5020 164000 8240 9580 378000 38400 7120 4620 79700 13800 5410 26100 75900 10200 49900 23500 20900
2020-06-08 287000 1178000 59200 9660 186000 12000 242000 187000 235000 47500 26500 34700 20500 45500 720000 97300 135000 40700 264000 31400 175000 121000 201000 22300 471000 50900 170000 1945000 20000 9400 27000 132000 28200 43900 9400 9900 64500 48700 21900 3200 128000 37500 10500 11700 42900 104000 58600 2560 54700 28000 13600 17400 36400 2860 15700 5060 164000 8310 9700 379000 38800 7210 4680 80100 14100 5450 26500 77400 10400 50600 23700 21100
2020-06-09 288000 1180000 59300 9690 186000 12000 242000 187000 236000 47600 26700 34800 20600 45900 740000 97800 139000 42100 272000 31700 176000 125000 204000 22800 477000 52700 171000 1960000 20200 9700 27700 134000 28300 44100 9460 9900 65100 49100 22100 3230 129000 37800 10600 11800 43100 105000 59100 2570 54800 28400 13700 17500 37200 2900 15800 5100 164000 8370 9770 379000 39100 7270 4730 80300 14300 5490 26800 78500 10600 51400 23900 21400
2020-06-10 289000 1181000 59400 9700 186000 12000 242000 187000 236000 47700 26900 35000 20800 46400 761000 98100 143000 44200 280000 31900 177000 128000 208000 23400 481000 55200 171000 1970000 20500 10100 28300 136000 28400 44200 9520 10000 65700 49600 22200 3260 130000 38000 10600 12000 43400 105000 59600 2590 54900 28800 13700 17600 38200 2920 15900 5140 165000 8420 9850 380000 39400 7310 4760 80500 14600 5530 27000 79600 10700 52100 24100 21800
2020-06-11 289000 1182000 59400 9700 186000 12000 242000 187000 236000 47800 27000 35100 20900 46500 777000 98400 147000 45400 286000 32100 178000 131000 214000 24000 485000 56700 171000 1978000 20800 10300 28700 137000 28500 44400 9580 10000 65800 49900 22300 3280 131000 38200 10700 12100 43500 106000 60000 2600 55000 29200 13800 17800 38900 2940 16000 5170 165000 8460 9880 380000 39700 7330 4800 80800 14800 5560 27100 80200 10700 52900 24200 22100
2020-06-12 290000 1182000 59500 9710 186000 12000 242000 187000 236000 47800 27000 35200 21000 46500 793000 98700 150000 46500 292000 32300 178000 134000 218000 24400 489000 57700 171000 1985000 21100 10500 29000 138000 28600 44500 9630 10000 65900 50200 22500 3290 132000 38400 10700 12100 43600 106000 60500 2610 55000 29600 13800 17900 39400 2960 16200 5210 165000 8500 9900 381000 39900 7340 4830 81000 14900 5610 27100 80400 10800 53700 24300 22300
2020-06-13 290000 1182000 59500 9720 186000 12000 242000 187000 236000 47900 27100 35300 21100 46700 809000 99000 153000 48000 298000 32400 179000 137000 221000 24900 492000 59800 172000 1994000 21300 10700 29400 139000 28700 44700 9670 10100 66100 50500 22600 3310 132000 38600 10800 12200 43700 106000 60900 2630 55100 29900 13900 18200 39600 2970 16200 5240 165000 8530 9920 381000 40200 7360 4850 81100 15100 5620 27200 81000 10800 54500 24300 22700
2020-06-14 291000 1182000 59600 9720 186000 12000 242000 187000 236000 47900 27200 35300 21100 46900 827000 99200 157000 49100 304000 32600 179000 140000 225000 25300 495000 61300 172000 2003000 21600 10900 29800 140000 28800 44800 9700 10100 66400 50700 22700 3320 133000 38700 10800 12200 43800 106000 61300 2630 55100 30100 13900 18400 39700 2980 16300 5260 165000 8550 9960 381000 40400 7360 4870 81100 15200 5650 27300 81800 10800 55100 24300 23100
2020-06-15 291000 1183000 59600 9720 187000 12000 242000 187000 236000 48000 27200 35400 21200 47100 849000 99500 159000 50200 309000 32700 180000 142000 230000 25900 498000 62900 172000 2008000 21800 11100 30200 140000 28800 44900 9730 10100 66500 51000 22800 3330 134000 38800 10900 12300 43800 107000 61600 2640 55100 30400 13900 18600 40000 2990 16400 5280 165000 8570 9970 382000 40700 7360 4890 81100 15400 5670 27400 82500 10900 55800 24300 23500

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-06-06

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1003-2803-2604-1004-2403-2503-2703-2904-0603-2704-0604-1204-0203-2704-1004-1303-2104-1005-2004-1004-1106-0303-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5827 29657 870 1476 78 280 287 5942 331 8160 176 10382 96 75 124 970 5747 1186 405 871 378 1412 295 1193
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 34 36 11 14 28 27 25 24 42 22 8 20 30 27 35 66 28 28 88 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 26 40 11 13 16 27 14 24 27 25 12 22 24 17 29 64 23 25 82 19 12
Last total 284868 1175369 16898 59072 2711 7671 9567 185450 11924 241310 6964 187067 2980 2247 3990 25183 234801 47335 25986 34351 20290 43887 8531 30956
Last daily increment 1557 4445 55 165 84 35 38 526 49 332 23 529 13 0 20 20 270 183 576 382 187 948 9 20
Last week 10106 21471 167 691 198 109 299 2040 255 1831 105 1216 63 1 114 193 1804 893 2200 1851 1033 6345 91 94
Days since peak 57 70 72 57 43 73 71 69 61 71 61 55 65 71 57 54 77 57 17 57 56 3 71 75

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-06-06

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date03-28 --04-2206-01 -- -- -- -- --05-3005-2905-09 --04-1204-0905-26 -- -- --04-2404-2005-0104-26 --04-1705-0204-0205-0304-2705-05 --04-0404-2405-1905-2204-0405-2304-1005-29 --05-2105-0105-0104-0705-0204-0404-0904-1904-0405-0904-0805-11 --05-0806-02 -- --05-2603-2805-2905-24
Peak daily increment 401 1877 4696 6903 735 11145 4676 31921 523 623 1184 203 249 898 588 136 2721 722 297 1768 3011 1208 60 1600 737 259 348 91 447 102 4517 174 175 10029 1147 129 80 1723 635 171 831 1207 455 484 51
Days from 100 to peak 18 42 77 74 76 53 24 37 67 40 32 40 32 32 40 8 48 37 42 19 42 61 60 17 64 19 69 52 33 37 23 38 15 31 31 11 50 22 47 38 76 68 21 72 56
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 33 63 52 68 33 18 20 63 35 27 40 31 27 34 9 40 33 40 12 30 53 64 13 57 18 67 57 29 41 15 39 15 20 25 13 54 15 40 39 71 59 17 69 61
Last total 7259 672846 96475 127745 36759 246622 30514 169425 113619 191758 21340 458102 45973 169218 1920061 19709 8837 25451 128593 27834 43563 9269 9833 62661 47816 21469 3139 126698 36997 10361 11280 42366 102780 57482 2524 54337 27405 13450 17039 34718 2816 15355 5009 163503 8192 9491 377316 38111 7059 4570 79505 13071 13453 5367 25590 74470 10040 49397 23417 20571 2136
Last daily increment 7 27075 528 5246 0 10438 993 2269 3593 4358 714 8846 2539 878 22681 636 430 1012 2855 233 348 70 109 1268 579 317 28 989 419 55 312 465 592 712 46 0 521 346 270 1423 71 166 141 570 125 182 1108 353 52 0 690 0 0 90 513 1922 274 865 443 322 17
Last week 57 157997 3996 28057 9540 56013 4041 17959 22955 27282 3254 52259 13290 5276 129889 1757 1772 5515 16642 1470 1596 468 386 6582 4463 1918 300 6641 2423 661 1582 2534 6151 4704 201 1065 2644 1194 1516 5933 239 1473 364 3560 730 863 6546 2598 641 327 3376 0 1592 374 3534 9818 1282 4790 1783 2168 126
Days since peak 70 45 5 7 8 28 55 58 11 43 47 36 41 50 35 65 34 40 32 63 43 18 15 63 14 57 8 16 36 36 60 35 63 58 48 63 28 59 26 29 4 11 70 8 13

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed