COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-06


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-07-06

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-15 --03-2804-0303-2704-0603-3004-0404-1204-21 --04-1004-1003-2403-3106-0804-10 --06-0303-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4724 29657 810 1470 278 283 5661 316 8057 146 19785 86 105 1116 5648 1079 433 830 1337 240 1139
Days from 100 to peak 36 37 18 38 15 22 25 28 26 22 42 40 20 27 30 25 85 28 89 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 14 21 14 27 17 22 24 44 23 21 20 19 82 23 82 18 17
Last total 285768 1291846 18365 62058 5914 8377 12566 198064 12878 251789 7257 196748 3562 3220 4189 25531 241819 50657 36155 44129 29223 73061 8936 32315
Last daily increment 352 6142 85 42 174 26 51 541 46 1244 4 1213 43 69 6 4 208 36 205 232 250 1642 6 47
Last week 2058 23888 599 631 925 272 612 2646 110 2518 43 2375 153 443 34 58 1241 384 1762 1988 2253 4610 57 601
Days since peak 90 95 102 82 100 94 101 91 98 93 85 76 87 87 104 97 28 87 33 102 101

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-07-06

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date03-28 --05-0306-17 -- -- --04-01 --05-30 --05-09 --04-14 -- -- -- --07-0204-2404-2005-0104-26 -- --05-01 --05-1205-01 -- --04-0604-2405-0605-2204-0605-24 --06-22 --04-1805-0105-0104-08 -- --03-3107-0307-03 --04-09 --05-09 -- -- --05-26 -- -- --
Peak daily increment 359 1984 31541 2861 5882 10901 4816 7069 729 1012 190 197 512 2692 668 1478 3307 1017 48 1624 673 1057 94 441 89 4272 9432 2491 429 1624 148 1076
Days from 100 to peak 18 51 92 36 73 52 27 115 40 30 39 32 39 58 41 21 40 48 59 21 65 93 19 33 38 24 20 106 101 23 39 68
Days from peak/2 to peak 15 43 48 29 53 34 19 98 35 27 40 32 34 49 38 15 30 41 65 15 58 87 23 29 41 16 12 97 99 16 41 60
Last total 8755 1623284 107815 298557 117412 719664 64958 243051 261750 305703 46333 686852 205721 206844 2936077 44375 23288 101455 271035 34240 46749 10515 12202 206217 89778 31741 8051 147809 48331 16638 17151 66319 109774 69904 3421 68846 38491 21462 31257 74775 3849 19880 5911 172916 12580 22909 397649 57956 16362 10395 95100 46380 7105 50206 205642 20527 66102 36799 32061 3442
Last daily increment 172 20229 421 3025 3727 22251 1209 2613 4902 2985 2079 6569 8971 1086 44953 925 381 3352 6354 192 245 33 155 6332 1672 240 319 612 323 557 779 1101 162 272 9 302 432 342 357 1783 33 119 18 199 249 491 518 806 431 165 697 1533 42 710 8221 388 354 1041 484 180
Last week 835 221243 1718 19164 22143 134183 8573 15389 35661 20490 8819 39923 54512 6938 299663 6839 3232 22228 39617 1542 439 188 766 53928 15197 2670 1935 4673 2737 2268 1529 8226 1244 2345 170 2515 2271 2030 4010 9448 273 877 130 1891 1338 4453 4195 6167 2605 1739 3961 9981 341 8018 42582 2559 3315 4053 3402 542
Days since peak 100 64 19 96 37 58 83 4 73 77 66 71 66 55 66 91 73 61 45 91 43 14 79 66 66 89 97 3 3 88 58 41

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-07 to 2020-07-13

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-06 285768 1291846 18365 62058 5914 8377 12566 198064 251789 196748 3220 241819 50657 36155 44129 29223 73061 32315
2020-07-07 286300 1295000 18460 62140 6122 8422 12660 198700 252500 196700 3314 241900 50820 36430 44450 29230 74770 32400
2020-07-08 286400 1299000 18560 62220 6340 8468 12760 199100 253200 197100 3413 242100 50830 36700 44760 29430 75890 32480
2020-07-09 286500 1303000 18650 62310 6578 8520 12860 199600 253800 197500 3514 242200 50900 36970 45080 29730 76900 32570
2020-07-10 286900 1306000 18740 62390 6805 8571 12960 200000 254400 197800 3619 242300 50920 37230 45390 30000 77870 32650
2020-07-11 287400 1310000 18830 62470 7039 8615 13050 200400 255000 198200 3728 242500 50920 37500 45710 30190 78000 32740
2020-07-12 287700 1314000 18920 62550 7124 8666 13150 200700 255500 198600 3840 242600 51080 37760 46020 30420 78000 32820
2020-07-13 288100 1317000 19010 62630 7353 8691 13250 201100 256100 199000 3955 242800 51130 38030 46340 30680 79490 32900

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-07 to 2020-07-13

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-07-06 8755 1623284 107815 298557 117412 719664 64958 243051 261750 305703 46333 686852 205721 206844 2936077 44375 23288 101455 271035 34240 46749 12202 206217 89778 31741 8051 147809 48331 16638 17151 66319 109774 69904 68846 38491 21462 31257 74775 3849 19880 172916 12580 22909 397649 57956 16362 10395 95100 46380 7105 50206 205642 20527 66102 36799 32061 3442
2020-07-07 8900 1650000 108100 302200 125100 748500 66300 245500 265000 308400 48200 693300 216100 208100 3014000 46610 23820 104700 275100 34280 46830 12340 213000 93700 31790 8390 148200 48710 17080 17350 67340 110000 70250 68850 38860 21780 31800 75560 3884 20020 173200 13110 23660 398300 58800 16360 10730 95270 48450 7158 52860 213100 21300 66620 37620 32400 3588
2020-07-08 9040 1695000 108400 305700 129300 778500 67630 247800 270700 311100 50080 699600 227000 209300 3097000 48270 24350 107800 278700 34500 46900 12470 220400 96200 32170 8730 149000 49080 17820 17780 68290 110100 70600 68920 39220 22090 32320 77090 3919 20160 173500 13520 24410 398900 59630 16530 11060 95870 50270 7211 55440 223100 21880 67130 38510 32910 3781
2020-07-09 9180 1738000 108700 309200 135800 810500 68950 250200 277200 313800 52020 705800 238400 210400 3181000 50280 24870 111000 282700 34720 46970 12600 230200 98600 32860 9100 149800 49450 18310 18200 69270 110300 70930 69290 39580 22400 32840 78460 3953 20300 173700 14020 25170 399500 60460 16820 11410 96570 52340 7263 58010 231400 22580 67650 39620 33440 3980
2020-07-10 9317 1781000 109000 312700 143300 846400 70260 252500 283100 316500 53980 712000 250400 211600 3272000 52560 25380 114100 286200 34880 47050 12730 239400 101500 33110 9470 150600 49810 19100 18660 70180 110600 71270 69470 39940 22700 33360 80310 3986 20440 174000 14590 25930 400100 61290 17170 11770 97250 54630 7315 60690 240000 23320 68150 40630 33960 4180
2020-07-11 9454 1815000 109300 316100 150000 884900 71580 254800 288800 319300 56000 718200 263100 212800 3364000 54220 25910 117200 289700 34990 47120 12850 249700 104500 33560 9850 151400 50170 19660 19120 71100 110800 71610 69720 40290 23010 33890 81710 4020 20580 174300 15160 26710 400700 62120 17540 12140 97720 57110 7367 63490 248600 24070 68660 41590 34570 4400
2020-07-12 9592 1842000 109600 319600 159200 922800 72920 257200 293700 322000 58090 724400 276300 214000 3460000 55820 26430 120400 293300 35110 47200 12980 259500 106400 34010 10260 152000 50530 20110 19600 72020 110900 71950 69890 40650 23320 34420 83140 4054 20720 174500 15660 27500 401300 62950 17740 12520 98180 59090 7419 66420 254700 24620 69170 42560 35070 4609
2020-07-13 9730 1865000 109900 323100 164300 959600 74270 259500 298300 324700 60250 730700 290300 215200 3558000 57500 26970 123600 296900 35290 47270 13110 267000 108700 34230 10680 152500 50900 20890 20100 72950 111100 72290 70140 41010 23630 34950 84720 4088 20860 174800 16020 28300 401900 63790 18080 12910 98780 61300 7471 69480 262200 25230 69690 43720 35470 4785

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-07 to 2020-07-13

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-06 285768 1291846 18365 62058 5914 8377 12566 198064 251789 196748 3220 241819 50657 36155 44129 29223 73061 32315
2020-07-07 286000 1293000 18420 62110 6094 8404 12680 198300 252000 196800 3302 241900 50700 36350 44430 29500 73710 32380
2020-07-08 286200 1296000 18490 62190 6304 8444 12810 198500 252200 197000 3403 242000 50740 36590 44750 29840 74630 32450
2020-07-09 286300 1298000 18560 62270 6541 8489 12940 198700 252500 197200 3509 242100 50790 36840 45070 30200 75460 32530
2020-07-10 286700 1301000 18640 62350 6760 8533 13080 198900 252900 197400 3618 242100 50830 37070 45390 30560 76230 32600
2020-07-11 287000 1303000 18710 62440 6973 8565 13220 199200 253200 197600 3729 242300 50880 37310 45710 30920 76410 32670
2020-07-12 287300 1305000 18780 62520 7048 8604 13390 199400 253600 197900 3838 242400 50970 37550 46030 31270 76560 32740
2020-07-13 287700 1307000 18850 62600 7250 8626 13560 199600 254000 198100 3967 242400 51030 37790 46350 31630 77480 32820

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-07 to 2020-07-13

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-07-06 8755 1623284 107815 298557 117412 719664 64958 243051 261750 305703 46333 686852 205721 206844 2936077 44375 23288 101455 271035 34240 46749 12202 206217 89778 31741 8051 147809 48331 16638 17151 66319 109774 69904 68846 38491 21462 31257 74775 3849 19880 172916 12580 22909 397649 57956 16362 10395 95100 46380 7105 50206 205642 20527 66102 36799 32061 3442
2020-07-07 8819 1658000 108000 300100 121900 746500 65830 244900 265800 307900 47210 691000 215800 208000 3007000 45640 23790 104500 273100 34420 46780 12290 214100 92400 32030 8440 148400 48560 17020 17380 67200 109900 70200 69150 38770 21750 31690 75750 3879 20010 173100 12820 23710 398200 58590 16680 10690 95400 48250 7152 51760 211900 21060 66600 37560 32480 3480
2020-07-08 8909 1705000 108200 302500 126800 777900 67230 247100 271500 310800 48660 696700 227300 209200 3103000 47140 24350 107700 276700 34690 46820 12390 224000 95100 32430 8890 149100 48920 17610 17720 68420 110000 70560 69510 39140 22090 32240 77320 3916 20150 173400 13140 24560 398800 59620 17090 11030 95960 50370 7220 53720 220800 21690 67140 38380 33030 3572
2020-07-09 8999 1749000 108400 305300 132500 811700 68700 249200 277600 313900 50280 702400 239300 210300 3203000 48890 24950 111200 280700 34970 46870 12490 235400 97800 32900 9370 149900 49310 18110 18120 69510 110100 70960 69950 39510 22430 32850 78680 3953 20290 173600 13500 25440 399400 60730 17530 11410 96600 52680 7282 55740 228500 22360 67680 39370 33610 3689
2020-07-10 9091 1798000 108600 307800 138500 847900 70080 251400 283700 317000 52310 708100 251900 211500 3306000 50900 25560 115400 285200 35230 46930 12580 247100 100600 33280 9860 150600 49700 18750 18530 70700 110200 71360 70320 39880 22770 33440 80790 3991 20440 173800 13900 26410 400000 61800 17990 11800 97260 55120 7349 57960 236800 23080 68230 40290 34190 3805
2020-07-11 9201 1836000 108800 312300 144600 887700 71510 253500 289500 320300 54330 713500 265400 212700 3409000 52460 26150 118900 290000 35460 46990 12680 259900 103400 33710 10380 151300 50080 19320 18950 71550 110400 71690 70710 40260 23110 33980 82300 4029 20590 174100 14260 27490 400600 62870 18480 12200 97730 57660 7412 59690 245200 23790 68790 41210 34840 3926
2020-07-12 9295 1865000 109000 315600 152100 927100 72770 255500 294800 323300 56310 718700 279300 213900 3517000 53920 26790 123000 294700 35710 47060 12780 272000 106000 34140 10930 151900 50440 19860 19390 72780 110500 72000 71020 40640 23470 34490 83810 4066 20730 174300 14660 28520 401200 63900 18900 12600 98170 60170 7471 61490 251900 24460 69350 42100 35370 4042
2020-07-13 9374 1893000 109200 318900 158200 966600 74080 257600 300000 326500 58320 723700 293700 215100 3628000 55920 27410 126600 299500 35950 47120 12880 284200 108700 34490 11500 152600 50810 20540 19830 73850 110600 72350 71350 41020 23820 35160 85320 4102 20870 174600 15000 29500 401800 64940 19330 12950 98720 62810 7523 63780 260200 25200 69920 43010 35790 4152

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-07 to 2020-07-15

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-07-06 285768 1291846 18365 62058 5914 8377 12566 198064 251789 196748 3220 241819 50657 36155 44129 29223 73061 32315 8755 1623284 107815 298557 117412 719664 64958 243051 261750 305703 46333 686852 205721 206844 2936077 44375 23288 101455 271035 34240 46749 12202 206217 89778 31741 8051 147809 48331 16638 17151 66319 109774 69904 68846 38491 21462 31257 74775 3849 19880 172916 12580 22909 397649 57956 16362 10395 95100 46380 7105 50206 205642 20527 66102 36799 32061 3442
2020-07-07 285800 1296000 18460 62140 6076 8432 12810 198500 251800 196900 3391 242000 50780 36390 44490 29920 73740 32430 8870 1673000 107900 300400 121100 738900 66580 245500 267700 308200 46890 691000 214600 208000 3002000 45720 23920 104300 275600 34490 46770 12330 217100 93500 32070 8460 148200 48570 17130 17260 67660 109800 70230 69160 38750 21930 31720 76630 3885 20000 173200 12870 24030 398200 59520 16680 10730 95430 48210 7153 52020 212700 21240 66510 37640 32840 3515
2020-07-08 286000 1299000 18580 62200 6171 8487 12930 198800 252000 197200 3492 242200 50870 36620 44770 30210 74350 32520 9040 1698000 108100 301900 123400 750700 67540 248000 272200 310500 47980 695300 222000 208800 3057000 46490 24350 107100 280300 34670 46800 12470 227700 94900 32360 8620 148700 48870 17510 17460 68680 110000 70500 69370 39020 22270 32130 77540 3915 20100 173600 13090 24730 398900 60780 16990 10940 95910 49760 7197 52990 219100 21660 66940 38310 33310 3563
2020-07-09 286200 1303000 18700 62280 6274 8539 13000 199200 252100 197400 3589 242300 50940 36840 45030 30580 74820 32600 9220 1723000 108300 303500 126500 765300 68490 250400 276300 312500 48780 700600 230000 209500 3099000 47340 24760 110000 285400 34780 46810 12600 237200 96500 32670 8893 149200 49080 17760 17720 69640 110100 70780 69590 39250 22590 32570 78640 3954 20180 173900 13310 25330 399500 61940 17240 11140 96290 51200 7236 53910 223300 22120 67330 38890 33750 3625
2020-07-10 286500 1306000 18830 62340 6356 8589 13120 199500 252200 197700 3666 242500 51020 37060 45310 30970 75280 32680 9390 1744000 108500 304800 129100 778300 69430 252700 281300 314700 49220 704500 237700 210200 3142000 47930 25140 112900 290500 34830 46810 12730 247800 97600 32870 9084 149500 49240 17990 17900 70110 110200 70990 69750 39420 22880 32990 79950 3990 20270 174300 13500 25860 399900 62690 17500 11340 96580 52720 7265 54720 228300 22500 67660 39530 34270 3714
2020-07-11 286900 1310000 18940 62410 6425 8643 13180 199800 252300 197900 3750 242600 51080 37250 45410 31010 75670 32750 9570 1760000 108700 306500 130700 786100 69510 254900 285700 316500 49750 707200 243800 210600 3201000 48440 25540 115600 294800 34880 46820 12830 257200 98200 33080 9204 149800 49420 18290 18010 70510 110200 71170 69880 39630 23170 33310 81140 4022 20320 174700 13710 26420 400400 63680 17550 11470 96930 54130 7291 55350 234400 22850 67960 40050 34650 3792
2020-07-12 287200 1313000 19040 62440 6478 8698 13230 200100 252400 198100 3825 242800 51160 37430 45560 31310 75950 32820 9750 1770000 108800 307600 132200 793000 69870 256700 287700 318000 50050 710500 248700 211000 3245000 49040 25770 117600 299200 34880 46830 12870 264700 98600 33160 9424 150100 49460 18410 18080 71030 110300 71320 70010 39790 23480 33520 81950 4049 20360 175000 13930 26830 400800 64710 17630 11620 97040 55360 7310 55920 235100 23130 68230 40430 34930 3806
2020-07-13 287700 1316000 19150 62470 6567 8752 13310 200300 252500 198200 3886 242900 51240 37590 45650 31310 76310 32910 9940 1781000 108900 308800 133900 801900 70560 258200 289200 319300 50120 713400 253800 211500 3267000 49570 26050 119400 304000 34910 46830 12920 270500 99000 33320 9517 150300 49550 18610 18340 71450 110300 71440 70100 39970 23630 33820 82600 4074 20380 175200 14090 27180 401200 64760 17820 11710 97230 56540 7323 56090 238100 23430 68460 40750 35400 3815
2020-07-14 288100 1318000 19260 62520 6647 8806 13380 200600 252500 198400 3958 243000 51300 37720 45690 31390 76610 32980 10120 1798000 109000 309500 136200 811700 71250 259700 295500 320500 50530 715700 258300 211800 3294000 50080 26440 120700 308200 34930 46840 12930 275200 99900 33460 9673 150500 49570 18860 18610 72010 110300 71540 70180 40100 23890 34070 83980 4103 20380 175400 14140 27620 401500 64760 18010 11900 97430 57780 7329 56610 240400 23760 68660 41070 35880 3834
2020-07-15 288500 1320000 19370 62520 6730 8858 13400 200800 252600 198600 4028 243100 51360 37870 45750 31450 76810 33060 10310 1813000 109100 310900 138200 818400 71910 261100 298000 321700 51540 718100 263200 212100 3328000 50470 26730 122300 312200 34950 46840 12940 279000 100200 33550 9982 150600 49620 18960 18680 72100 110300 71600 70240 40220 24050 34210 84970 4121 20420 175500 14170 27970 401900 64760 18260 12080 97570 58460 7336 57120 246500 24060 68920 41190 36220 3885

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed