COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-07-06

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	NO	CH
Peak date	04-07	04-02	03-26	04-15	--	03-28	04-03	03-27	04-06	03-30	04-04	04-12	04-21	--	04-10	04-10	03-24	03-31	06-08	04-10	--	06-03	03-26	03-27
Peak daily increment	4724	29657	810	1470		278	283	5661	316	8057	146	19785	86		105	1116	5648	1079	433	830		1337	240	1139
Days from 100 to peak	36	37	18	38		15	22	25	28	26	22	42	40		20	27	30	25	85	28		89	19	22
Days from peak/2 to peak	24	24	13	32		14	21	14	27	17	22	24	44		23	21	20	19	82	23		82	18	17
Last total	285768	1291846	18365	62058	5914	8377	12566	198064	12878	251789	7257	196748	3562	3220	4189	25531	241819	50657	36155	44129	29223	73061	8936	32315
Last daily increment	352	6142	85	42	174	26	51	541	46	1244	4	1213	43	69	6	4	208	36	205	232	250	1642	6	47
Last week	2058	23888	599	631	925	272	612	2646	110	2518	43	2375	153	443	34	58	1241	384	1762	1988	2253	4610	57	601
Days since peak	90	95	102	82		100	94	101	91	98	93	85	76		87	87	104	97	28	87		33	102	101

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-07-06

	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-ME	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
Peak date	03-28	--	05-03	06-17	--	--	--	04-01	--	05-30	--	05-09	--	04-14	--	--	--	--	07-02	04-24	04-20	05-01	04-26	--	--	05-01	--	05-12	05-01	--	--	04-06	04-24	05-06	05-22	04-06	05-24	--	06-22	--	04-18	05-01	05-01	04-08	--	--	03-31	07-03	07-03	--	04-09	--	05-09	--	--	--	05-26	--	--	--
Peak daily increment	359		1984	31541				2861		5882		10901		4816					7069	729	1012	190	197			512		2692	668			1478	3307	1017	48	1624	673		1057		94	441	89	4272			9432	2491	429		1624		148				1076
Days from 100 to peak	18		51	92				36		73		52		27					115	40	30	39	32			39		58	41			21	40	48	59	21	65		93		19	33	38	24			20	106	101		23		39				68
Days from peak/2 to peak	15		43	48				29		53		34		19					98	35	27	40	32			34		49	38			15	30	41	65	15	58		87		23	29	41	16			12	97	99		16		41				60
Last total	8755	1623284	107815	298557	117412	719664	64958	243051	261750	305703	46333	686852	205721	206844	2936077	44375	23288	101455	271035	34240	46749	10515	12202	206217	89778	31741	8051	147809	48331	16638	17151	66319	109774	69904	3421	68846	38491	21462	31257	74775	3849	19880	5911	172916	12580	22909	397649	57956	16362	10395	95100	46380	7105	50206	205642	20527	66102	36799	32061	3442
Last daily increment	172	20229	421	3025	3727	22251	1209	2613	4902	2985	2079	6569	8971	1086	44953	925	381	3352	6354	192	245	33	155	6332	1672	240	319	612	323	557	779	1101	162	272	9	302	432	342	357	1783	33	119	18	199	249	491	518	806	431	165	697	1533	42	710	8221	388	354	1041	484	180
Last week	835	221243	1718	19164	22143	134183	8573	15389	35661	20490	8819	39923	54512	6938	299663	6839	3232	22228	39617	1542	439	188	766	53928	15197	2670	1935	4673	2737	2268	1529	8226	1244	2345	170	2515	2271	2030	4010	9448	273	877	130	1891	1338	4453	4195	6167	2605	1739	3961	9981	341	8018	42582	2559	3315	4053	3402	542
Days since peak	100		64	19				96		37		58		83					4	73	77	66	71			66		55	66			91	73	61	45	91	43		14		79	66	66	89			97	3	3		88		58				41

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-07 to 2020-07-13

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	ES	FR	HR	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	CH
2020-07-06	285768	1291846	18365	62058	5914	8377	12566	198064	251789	196748	3220	241819	50657	36155	44129	29223	73061	32315
2020-07-07	286300	1295000	18460	62140	6122	8422	12660	198700	252500	196700	3314	241900	50820	36430	44450	29230	74770	32400
2020-07-08	286400	1299000	18560	62220	6340	8468	12760	199100	253200	197100	3413	242100	50830	36700	44760	29430	75890	32480
2020-07-09	286500	1303000	18650	62310	6578	8520	12860	199600	253800	197500	3514	242200	50900	36970	45080	29730	76900	32570
2020-07-10	286900	1306000	18740	62390	6805	8571	12960	200000	254400	197800	3619	242300	50920	37230	45390	30000	77870	32650
2020-07-11	287400	1310000	18830	62470	7039	8615	13050	200400	255000	198200	3728	242500	50920	37500	45710	30190	78000	32740
2020-07-12	287700	1314000	18920	62550	7124	8666	13150	200700	255500	198600	3840	242600	51080	37760	46020	30420	78000	32820
2020-07-13	288100	1317000	19010	62630	7353	8691	13250	201100	256100	199000	3955	242800	51130	38030	46340	30680	79490	32900

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-07 to 2020-07-13

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-07-06	8755	1623284	107815	298557	117412	719664	64958	243051	261750	305703	46333	686852	205721	206844	2936077	44375	23288	101455	271035	34240	46749	12202	206217	89778	31741	8051	147809	48331	16638	17151	66319	109774	69904	68846	38491	21462	31257	74775	3849	19880	172916	12580	22909	397649	57956	16362	10395	95100	46380	7105	50206	205642	20527	66102	36799	32061	3442
2020-07-07	8900	1650000	108100	302200	125100	748500	66300	245500	265000	308400	48200	693300	216100	208100	3014000	46610	23820	104700	275100	34280	46830	12340	213000	93700	31790	8390	148200	48710	17080	17350	67340	110000	70250	68850	38860	21780	31800	75560	3884	20020	173200	13110	23660	398300	58800	16360	10730	95270	48450	7158	52860	213100	21300	66620	37620	32400	3588
2020-07-08	9040	1695000	108400	305700	129300	778500	67630	247800	270700	311100	50080	699600	227000	209300	3097000	48270	24350	107800	278700	34500	46900	12470	220400	96200	32170	8730	149000	49080	17820	17780	68290	110100	70600	68920	39220	22090	32320	77090	3919	20160	173500	13520	24410	398900	59630	16530	11060	95870	50270	7211	55440	223100	21880	67130	38510	32910	3781
2020-07-09	9180	1738000	108700	309200	135800	810500	68950	250200	277200	313800	52020	705800	238400	210400	3181000	50280	24870	111000	282700	34720	46970	12600	230200	98600	32860	9100	149800	49450	18310	18200	69270	110300	70930	69290	39580	22400	32840	78460	3953	20300	173700	14020	25170	399500	60460	16820	11410	96570	52340	7263	58010	231400	22580	67650	39620	33440	3980
2020-07-10	9317	1781000	109000	312700	143300	846400	70260	252500	283100	316500	53980	712000	250400	211600	3272000	52560	25380	114100	286200	34880	47050	12730	239400	101500	33110	9470	150600	49810	19100	18660	70180	110600	71270	69470	39940	22700	33360	80310	3986	20440	174000	14590	25930	400100	61290	17170	11770	97250	54630	7315	60690	240000	23320	68150	40630	33960	4180
2020-07-11	9454	1815000	109300	316100	150000	884900	71580	254800	288800	319300	56000	718200	263100	212800	3364000	54220	25910	117200	289700	34990	47120	12850	249700	104500	33560	9850	151400	50170	19660	19120	71100	110800	71610	69720	40290	23010	33890	81710	4020	20580	174300	15160	26710	400700	62120	17540	12140	97720	57110	7367	63490	248600	24070	68660	41590	34570	4400
2020-07-12	9592	1842000	109600	319600	159200	922800	72920	257200	293700	322000	58090	724400	276300	214000	3460000	55820	26430	120400	293300	35110	47200	12980	259500	106400	34010	10260	152000	50530	20110	19600	72020	110900	71950	69890	40650	23320	34420	83140	4054	20720	174500	15660	27500	401300	62950	17740	12520	98180	59090	7419	66420	254700	24620	69170	42560	35070	4609
2020-07-13	9730	1865000	109900	323100	164300	959600	74270	259500	298300	324700	60250	730700	290300	215200	3558000	57500	26970	123600	296900	35290	47270	13110	267000	108700	34230	10680	152500	50900	20890	20100	72950	111100	72290	70140	41010	23630	34950	84720	4088	20860	174800	16020	28300	401900	63790	18080	12910	98780	61300	7471	69480	262200	25230	69690	43720	35470	4785

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-07 to 2020-07-13

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	ES	FR	HR	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	CH
2020-07-06	285768	1291846	18365	62058	5914	8377	12566	198064	251789	196748	3220	241819	50657	36155	44129	29223	73061	32315
2020-07-07	286000	1293000	18420	62110	6094	8404	12680	198300	252000	196800	3302	241900	50700	36350	44430	29500	73710	32380
2020-07-08	286200	1296000	18490	62190	6304	8444	12810	198500	252200	197000	3403	242000	50740	36590	44750	29840	74630	32450
2020-07-09	286300	1298000	18560	62270	6541	8489	12940	198700	252500	197200	3509	242100	50790	36840	45070	30200	75460	32530
2020-07-10	286700	1301000	18640	62350	6760	8533	13080	198900	252900	197400	3618	242100	50830	37070	45390	30560	76230	32600
2020-07-11	287000	1303000	18710	62440	6973	8565	13220	199200	253200	197600	3729	242300	50880	37310	45710	30920	76410	32670
2020-07-12	287300	1305000	18780	62520	7048	8604	13390	199400	253600	197900	3838	242400	50970	37550	46030	31270	76560	32740
2020-07-13	287700	1307000	18850	62600	7250	8626	13560	199600	254000	198100	3967	242400	51030	37790	46350	31630	77480	32820

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-07 to 2020-07-13

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-07-06	8755	1623284	107815	298557	117412	719664	64958	243051	261750	305703	46333	686852	205721	206844	2936077	44375	23288	101455	271035	34240	46749	12202	206217	89778	31741	8051	147809	48331	16638	17151	66319	109774	69904	68846	38491	21462	31257	74775	3849	19880	172916	12580	22909	397649	57956	16362	10395	95100	46380	7105	50206	205642	20527	66102	36799	32061	3442
2020-07-07	8819	1658000	108000	300100	121900	746500	65830	244900	265800	307900	47210	691000	215800	208000	3007000	45640	23790	104500	273100	34420	46780	12290	214100	92400	32030	8440	148400	48560	17020	17380	67200	109900	70200	69150	38770	21750	31690	75750	3879	20010	173100	12820	23710	398200	58590	16680	10690	95400	48250	7152	51760	211900	21060	66600	37560	32480	3480
2020-07-08	8909	1705000	108200	302500	126800	777900	67230	247100	271500	310800	48660	696700	227300	209200	3103000	47140	24350	107700	276700	34690	46820	12390	224000	95100	32430	8890	149100	48920	17610	17720	68420	110000	70560	69510	39140	22090	32240	77320	3916	20150	173400	13140	24560	398800	59620	17090	11030	95960	50370	7220	53720	220800	21690	67140	38380	33030	3572
2020-07-09	8999	1749000	108400	305300	132500	811700	68700	249200	277600	313900	50280	702400	239300	210300	3203000	48890	24950	111200	280700	34970	46870	12490	235400	97800	32900	9370	149900	49310	18110	18120	69510	110100	70960	69950	39510	22430	32850	78680	3953	20290	173600	13500	25440	399400	60730	17530	11410	96600	52680	7282	55740	228500	22360	67680	39370	33610	3689
2020-07-10	9091	1798000	108600	307800	138500	847900	70080	251400	283700	317000	52310	708100	251900	211500	3306000	50900	25560	115400	285200	35230	46930	12580	247100	100600	33280	9860	150600	49700	18750	18530	70700	110200	71360	70320	39880	22770	33440	80790	3991	20440	173800	13900	26410	400000	61800	17990	11800	97260	55120	7349	57960	236800	23080	68230	40290	34190	3805
2020-07-11	9201	1836000	108800	312300	144600	887700	71510	253500	289500	320300	54330	713500	265400	212700	3409000	52460	26150	118900	290000	35460	46990	12680	259900	103400	33710	10380	151300	50080	19320	18950	71550	110400	71690	70710	40260	23110	33980	82300	4029	20590	174100	14260	27490	400600	62870	18480	12200	97730	57660	7412	59690	245200	23790	68790	41210	34840	3926
2020-07-12	9295	1865000	109000	315600	152100	927100	72770	255500	294800	323300	56310	718700	279300	213900	3517000	53920	26790	123000	294700	35710	47060	12780	272000	106000	34140	10930	151900	50440	19860	19390	72780	110500	72000	71020	40640	23470	34490	83810	4066	20730	174300	14660	28520	401200	63900	18900	12600	98170	60170	7471	61490	251900	24460	69350	42100	35370	4042
2020-07-13	9374	1893000	109200	318900	158200	966600	74080	257600	300000	326500	58320	723700	293700	215100	3628000	55920	27410	126600	299500	35950	47120	12880	284200	108700	34490	11500	152600	50810	20540	19830	73850	110600	72350	71350	41020	23820	35160	85320	4102	20870	174600	15000	29500	401800	64940	19330	12950	98720	62810	7523	63780	260200	25200	69920	43010	35790	4152

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-07 to 2020-07-15

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	ES	FR	HR	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	CH	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-07-06	285768	1291846	18365	62058	5914	8377	12566	198064	251789	196748	3220	241819	50657	36155	44129	29223	73061	32315	8755	1623284	107815	298557	117412	719664	64958	243051	261750	305703	46333	686852	205721	206844	2936077	44375	23288	101455	271035	34240	46749	12202	206217	89778	31741	8051	147809	48331	16638	17151	66319	109774	69904	68846	38491	21462	31257	74775	3849	19880	172916	12580	22909	397649	57956	16362	10395	95100	46380	7105	50206	205642	20527	66102	36799	32061	3442
2020-07-07	285800	1296000	18460	62140	6076	8432	12810	198500	251800	196900	3391	242000	50780	36390	44490	29920	73740	32430	8870	1673000	107900	300400	121100	738900	66580	245500	267700	308200	46890	691000	214600	208000	3002000	45720	23920	104300	275600	34490	46770	12330	217100	93500	32070	8460	148200	48570	17130	17260	67660	109800	70230	69160	38750	21930	31720	76630	3885	20000	173200	12870	24030	398200	59520	16680	10730	95430	48210	7153	52020	212700	21240	66510	37640	32840	3515
2020-07-08	286000	1299000	18580	62200	6171	8487	12930	198800	252000	197200	3492	242200	50870	36620	44770	30210	74350	32520	9040	1698000	108100	301900	123400	750700	67540	248000	272200	310500	47980	695300	222000	208800	3057000	46490	24350	107100	280300	34670	46800	12470	227700	94900	32360	8620	148700	48870	17510	17460	68680	110000	70500	69370	39020	22270	32130	77540	3915	20100	173600	13090	24730	398900	60780	16990	10940	95910	49760	7197	52990	219100	21660	66940	38310	33310	3563
2020-07-09	286200	1303000	18700	62280	6274	8539	13000	199200	252100	197400	3589	242300	50940	36840	45030	30580	74820	32600	9220	1723000	108300	303500	126500	765300	68490	250400	276300	312500	48780	700600	230000	209500	3099000	47340	24760	110000	285400	34780	46810	12600	237200	96500	32670	8893	149200	49080	17760	17720	69640	110100	70780	69590	39250	22590	32570	78640	3954	20180	173900	13310	25330	399500	61940	17240	11140	96290	51200	7236	53910	223300	22120	67330	38890	33750	3625
2020-07-10	286500	1306000	18830	62340	6356	8589	13120	199500	252200	197700	3666	242500	51020	37060	45310	30970	75280	32680	9390	1744000	108500	304800	129100	778300	69430	252700	281300	314700	49220	704500	237700	210200	3142000	47930	25140	112900	290500	34830	46810	12730	247800	97600	32870	9084	149500	49240	17990	17900	70110	110200	70990	69750	39420	22880	32990	79950	3990	20270	174300	13500	25860	399900	62690	17500	11340	96580	52720	7265	54720	228300	22500	67660	39530	34270	3714
2020-07-11	286900	1310000	18940	62410	6425	8643	13180	199800	252300	197900	3750	242600	51080	37250	45410	31010	75670	32750	9570	1760000	108700	306500	130700	786100	69510	254900	285700	316500	49750	707200	243800	210600	3201000	48440	25540	115600	294800	34880	46820	12830	257200	98200	33080	9204	149800	49420	18290	18010	70510	110200	71170	69880	39630	23170	33310	81140	4022	20320	174700	13710	26420	400400	63680	17550	11470	96930	54130	7291	55350	234400	22850	67960	40050	34650	3792
2020-07-12	287200	1313000	19040	62440	6478	8698	13230	200100	252400	198100	3825	242800	51160	37430	45560	31310	75950	32820	9750	1770000	108800	307600	132200	793000	69870	256700	287700	318000	50050	710500	248700	211000	3245000	49040	25770	117600	299200	34880	46830	12870	264700	98600	33160	9424	150100	49460	18410	18080	71030	110300	71320	70010	39790	23480	33520	81950	4049	20360	175000	13930	26830	400800	64710	17630	11620	97040	55360	7310	55920	235100	23130	68230	40430	34930	3806
2020-07-13	287700	1316000	19150	62470	6567	8752	13310	200300	252500	198200	3886	242900	51240	37590	45650	31310	76310	32910	9940	1781000	108900	308800	133900	801900	70560	258200	289200	319300	50120	713400	253800	211500	3267000	49570	26050	119400	304000	34910	46830	12920	270500	99000	33320	9517	150300	49550	18610	18340	71450	110300	71440	70100	39970	23630	33820	82600	4074	20380	175200	14090	27180	401200	64760	17820	11710	97230	56540	7323	56090	238100	23430	68460	40750	35400	3815
2020-07-14	288100	1318000	19260	62520	6647	8806	13380	200600	252500	198400	3958	243000	51300	37720	45690	31390	76610	32980	10120	1798000	109000	309500	136200	811700	71250	259700	295500	320500	50530	715700	258300	211800	3294000	50080	26440	120700	308200	34930	46840	12930	275200	99900	33460	9673	150500	49570	18860	18610	72010	110300	71540	70180	40100	23890	34070	83980	4103	20380	175400	14140	27620	401500	64760	18010	11900	97430	57780	7329	56610	240400	23760	68660	41070	35880	3834
2020-07-15	288500	1320000	19370	62520	6730	8858	13400	200800	252600	198600	4028	243100	51360	37870	45750	31450	76810	33060	10310	1813000	109100	310900	138200	818400	71910	261100	298000	321700	51540	718100	263200	212100	3328000	50470	26730	122300	312200	34950	46840	12940	279000	100200	33550	9982	150600	49620	18960	18680	72100	110300	71600	70240	40220	24050	34210	84970	4121	20420	175500	14170	27970	401900	64760	18260	12080	97570	58460	7336	57120	246500	24060	68920	41190	36220	3885

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-06

Gnereal information