COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-22


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-07-22

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-15 --03-2804-0303-2704-0603-3004-0404-1204-2107-1904-1004-1003-2403-3106-0804-10 --06-0303-3104-1603-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4725 29656 810 1470 278 283 5661 316 8057 146 19785 86 88 105 1116 5648 1079 426 830 1337 52 49 240 1139
Days from 100 to peak 36 37 18 38 15 22 25 28 26 22 42 40 122 20 27 30 25 85 28 88 18 28 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 14 21 14 27 17 22 24 44 126 23 21 20 19 82 23 82 21 34 18 17
Last total 296377 1367744 19929 64627 9584 9830 14570 204276 13350 267551 7362 204641 4077 4530 4366 25819 245032 52241 41162 49150 40163 78504 2006 2058 9059 33883
Last daily increment 560 6794 102 369 330 134 246 559 48 1357 11 945 29 108 19 17 280 168 380 252 1030 338 29 37 6 141
Last week 3825 34343 659 1389 1440 627 958 2826 226 8696 69 3902 138 491 87 121 1296 890 2108 1385 5160 1627 109 107 44 593
Days since peak 106 111 118 98 116 110 117 107 114 109 101 92 3 103 103 120 113 44 103 49 113 97 118 117

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-07-22

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date -- --05-0306-17 -- --07-0904-0107-1805-3007-1905-0907-1604-1407-17 --07-16 --07-04 -- --04-2005-0104-2607-17 --07-17 --05-12 -- -- -- --04-2405-0605-2204-0605-24 -- --07-18 -- --05-0105-0104-08 -- --03-3107-0307-15 --04-09 --05-09 -- --07-1905-26 -- --07-1704-21
Peak daily increment 1984 31281 1886 2861 6348 5879 1774 10906 13437 4816 70468 1912 3515 1012 190 197 11738 546 2693 3307 1017 48 1624 673 125 441 89 4272 9432 1856 724 1624 148 505 1076 136 86
Days from 100 to peak 51 93 116 36 123 73 125 52 120 27 134 118 104 30 39 32 125 116 58 40 48 59 21 65 113 34 38 24 20 106 113 23 39 120 68 110 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 43 48 104 29 100 53 114 34 73 19 116 107 92 27 40 32 108 111 49 30 41 65 15 59 115 29 41 16 12 98 108 16 41 117 60 111 27
Last total 13302 2227514 113790 334683 218428 1238798 91751 281413 362274 366550 72269 787890 394948 222402 3970906 2131 70413 33980 150609 421286 41680 47993 11529 13631 379199 137203 40195 16322 165259 58673 23481 24540 99345 113912 80172 3719 79338 47839 32395 47071 2812 105276 5367 23359 6295 176963 16867 38657 408886 78742 27298 15393 108187 75042 8077 79442 363615 28390 80393 49101 44847 5212 2288
Last daily increment 408 67860 317 0 7390 45720 1882 2586 6019 4463 1505 5850 13150 902 71695 89 1338 532 1926 11981 639 133 102 43 9776 3018 490 499 1609 757 552 484 2768 283 627 19 707 493 1125 1547 101 2060 160 289 33 395 305 1129 705 1527 972 254 727 1705 58 1058 12544 462 1022 705 712 40 50
Last week 2069 215363 2646 10985 45222 234966 10083 14352 38233 24964 11003 36278 70727 5529 394749 438 10255 3886 15996 56580 2972 469 453 638 63796 17665 2888 3188 7332 4593 2664 3458 12937 1730 4508 125 3892 3583 4888 7274 581 11568 699 1342 156 1098 1666 6742 4111 8141 3858 1884 5112 10959 383 10811 57761 2870 5962 4988 5220 555 262
Days since peak 80 35 13 112 4 53 3 74 6 99 5 6 18 93 82 87 5 5 71 89 77 61 107 59 4 82 82 105 113 19 7 104 74 3 57 5 92

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-23 to 2020-07-29

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-22 296377 1367744 19929 64627 9584 9830 14570 204276 13350 267551 204641 4530 245032 52241 41162 49150 40163 78504 33883
2020-07-23 296700 1376000 20020 64860 10070 10010 14720 204400 13380 268700 204600 4606 245200 52300 41470 49430 41970 79560 33980
2020-07-24 297400 1383000 20120 65090 10460 10130 14850 204900 13400 269700 204900 4709 245400 52420 41760 49710 43560 79810 34070
2020-07-25 298100 1391000 20210 65310 10740 10210 14980 205300 13430 270700 205400 4824 245600 52560 42060 49990 45240 79810 34170
2020-07-26 298700 1398000 20300 65530 10870 10330 15100 205600 13450 271600 205900 4894 245800 52680 42340 50270 46960 79810 34250
2020-07-27 299200 1404000 20390 65750 11170 10400 15230 206000 13480 272600 206300 4929 246000 52820 42630 50550 48760 80410 34340
2020-07-28 299900 1411000 20480 65970 11560 10500 15350 206400 13510 273500 206800 4983 246100 52950 42920 50840 50630 80410 34430
2020-07-29 300300 1418000 20570 66180 11930 10630 15470 206800 13530 274500 207300 5079 246300 53090 43200 51120 52570 80740 34520

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-23 to 2020-07-29

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-22 13302 2227514 113790 334683 218428 1238798 91751 281413 362274 366550 72269 787890 394948 222402 3970906 2131 70413 33980 150609 421286 41680 47993 11529 13631 379199 137203 40195 16322 165259 58673 23481 24540 99345 113912 80172 79338 47839 32395 47071 2812 105276 5367 23359 176963 16867 38657 408886 78742 27298 15393 108187 75042 8077 79442 363615 28390 80393 49101 44847 5212 2288
2020-07-23 13780 2342000 114200 336400 226400 1293000 93400 284000 367900 371100 73890 793600 410000 223400 4033000 2214 72070 34870 155800 439100 42600 48050 11590 13730 389600 141000 40840 16830 165900 59900 23890 24960 103200 114000 80900 79940 48400 32960 48570 2963 107100 5595 23570 177200 17320 41240 409600 80100 27960 15700 108700 76850 8133 81220 375600 28890 81330 50480 45580 5265 2325
2020-07-24 14080 2440000 114500 338400 237000 1350000 95000 286500 375100 375500 75490 799300 422500 224300 4101000 2297 73720 35820 159500 452800 43570 48120 11640 13820 399700 144900 41420 17320 167300 61210 24290 25520 106600 114300 81610 80510 48930 33840 50130 3099 109000 5803 23760 177500 17770 43440 410200 81420 28570 16010 109700 78640 8188 82960 387200 29430 82250 51680 46450 5320 2360
2020-07-25 14480 2529000 114800 340300 246900 1410000 96600 289000 382100 379800 77080 804900 435400 225200 4161000 2382 75380 36790 161900 465200 44550 48190 11700 13910 409900 148900 41850 17820 168500 62540 24700 26100 108200 114600 82320 81090 49470 34760 51710 3208 110800 6017 23960 177700 18180 45570 410900 82720 29200 16310 110400 80420 8244 84670 398700 29960 83170 52750 47390 5375 2396
2020-07-26 14730 2614000 115200 342300 254800 1472000 98100 291400 386900 383900 78650 810400 448000 226100 4220000 2467 77030 37820 164300 479400 45590 48270 11750 14010 420000 153100 42370 18310 169400 63960 25100 26720 112200 114800 83020 81650 49980 35710 53350 3296 112600 6227 24150 178000 18560 47760 411500 84010 29790 16610 110900 82190 8298 86370 410200 30470 84080 54190 48140 5430 2430
2020-07-27 15060 2700000 115500 344300 262500 1535000 99700 293900 391600 388200 80230 815900 458700 227100 4279000 2555 78700 38880 165800 493700 46660 48340 11800 14100 430300 157400 42750 18800 170400 65410 25500 27350 116400 115000 83720 82200 50500 36690 55050 3405 114400 6489 24340 178200 18970 49570 412100 85300 30390 16910 111700 83970 8353 88090 421700 30820 84990 55490 48770 5486 2465
2020-07-28 15430 2811000 115800 346400 271000 1598000 101300 296300 398200 392400 81830 821500 468100 228000 4341000 2646 80390 39970 169300 512000 47750 48410 11850 14190 440700 161800 43090 19310 171300 66900 25910 28010 119700 115300 84420 82760 51020 37700 56810 3520 116200 6685 24520 178400 19400 51430 412800 86610 31000 17220 112700 85780 8408 89820 433400 31210 85910 56620 49800 5542 2500
2020-07-29 15820 2920000 116200 348400 281800 1664000 103000 298800 404400 396600 83440 827000 481400 228900 4408000 2740 82090 41090 171800 531100 48870 48480 11900 14280 451200 166300 43580 19820 172700 68430 26320 28670 123700 115500 85130 83320 51540 38730 58620 3632 118100 6869 24710 178700 19880 52900 413400 87920 31610 17530 113400 87610 8463 91570 445100 31650 86840 57700 50520 5599 2535

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-23 to 2020-07-29

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-22 296377 1367744 19929 64627 9584 9830 14570 204276 13350 267551 204641 4530 245032 52241 41162 49150 40163 78504 33883
2020-07-23 296700 1369000 20010 64730 9940 9960 14590 204300 13360 268200 204700 4604 245100 52280 41340 49370 41230 78640 33930
2020-07-24 297300 1371000 20100 64860 10290 10080 14620 204500 13370 269000 204800 4697 245200 52350 41640 49650 42440 78800 34010
2020-07-25 298000 1374000 20190 65000 10570 10170 14680 204700 13380 269900 205000 4798 245300 52450 41940 49930 43720 78800 34090
2020-07-26 298500 1376000 20270 65150 10700 10290 14740 204800 13400 270800 205100 4881 245400 52560 42230 50200 44870 78800 34170
2020-07-27 299000 1380000 20340 65290 11010 10350 14820 205000 13420 271700 205500 4944 245500 52680 42520 50480 46000 79210 34250
2020-07-28 299600 1382000 20420 65450 11410 10460 14920 205100 13440 272700 205800 5018 245500 52770 42830 50760 47300 79350 34320
2020-07-29 300000 1385000 20510 65610 11790 10580 15000 205300 13460 273700 206100 5116 245600 52870 43130 51030 48620 79630 34400

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-23 to 2020-07-29

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-22 13302 2227514 113790 334683 218428 1238798 91751 281413 362274 366550 72269 787890 394948 222402 3970906 2131 70413 33980 150609 421286 41680 47993 11529 13631 379199 137203 40195 16322 165259 58673 23481 24540 99345 113912 80172 79338 47839 32395 47071 2812 105276 5367 23359 176963 16867 38657 408886 78742 27298 15393 108187 75042 8077 79442 363615 28390 80393 49101 44847 5212 2288
2020-07-23 13560 2297000 114000 336100 226700 1287000 93300 282600 368100 369200 73850 792300 407100 223200 4035000 2176 72300 34780 153300 434900 42470 48020 11550 13710 388400 140800 40750 16880 165900 59720 23830 25090 102200 114000 80850 79920 48260 33060 48160 2945 107000 5496 23450 177100 17240 39990 409400 79820 27700 15690 108700 76850 8133 81080 374300 28880 81300 50250 45620 5314 2305
2020-07-24 13810 2372000 114200 338200 236400 1341000 94900 284300 374800 373000 75550 797200 420500 224000 4098000 2250 74260 35740 156400 448700 43480 48080 11600 13790 398700 145800 41300 17470 167100 61060 24270 25860 105500 114100 81570 80560 48820 34050 49550 3089 109000 5650 23610 177300 17670 41530 410100 81160 28280 16020 109600 78710 8203 83040 384300 29390 82250 51390 46520 5426 2336
2020-07-25 14160 2442000 114500 340300 246400 1399000 96600 285900 381500 376700 77260 801900 434400 224800 4152000 2329 76190 36730 159200 460800 44390 48150 11650 13880 409900 150700 41800 18080 168200 62440 24710 26650 107300 114300 82310 81170 49370 35090 51050 3205 111100 5804 23800 177500 18100 43080 410700 82450 28900 16350 110400 80580 8265 84990 393300 29910 83220 52450 47540 5538 2374
2020-07-26 14450 2506000 114700 342400 256500 1459000 98200 287500 387200 380400 79000 806500 448400 225700 4205000 2414 78030 37760 161900 474100 45290 48220 11690 13970 421700 154600 42340 18710 169200 63890 25150 27470 110800 114500 83060 81690 49930 36130 52610 3298 112900 5953 24000 177700 18520 44690 411400 83640 29520 16680 111000 82550 8319 86860 401800 30430 84180 53740 48340 5650 2409
2020-07-27 14780 2569000 115000 344600 267000 1518000 99900 289200 392700 384200 80760 811000 462200 226500 4257000 2502 80040 38820 164200 489600 46120 48290 11750 14050 433800 158500 42810 19350 170200 65300 25600 28320 114500 114600 83640 82190 50500 37140 54210 3415 114700 6125 24200 177900 18950 46180 412000 84880 30160 17030 111800 84350 8370 88960 410000 30870 85160 55010 49000 5767 2448
2020-07-28 15120 2656000 115200 346700 277900 1576000 101600 290800 399300 388000 82560 815200 476200 227400 4317000 2584 81960 39920 167600 510100 47120 48360 11800 14140 445200 163400 43240 20020 171100 66750 26060 29190 117900 114700 84380 82840 51070 38190 55880 3570 116900 6262 24400 178200 19380 47870 412700 86020 30820 17370 112600 86320 8428 90970 420400 31330 86140 56090 50020 5884 2488
2020-07-29 15480 2745000 115500 348900 289600 1639000 103400 292400 405800 391900 84390 819300 491800 228200 4377000 2673 83970 41040 170800 528400 48180 48430 11860 14230 457600 169200 43800 20710 172300 68220 26530 30100 121400 114800 85100 83590 51650 39340 57580 3742 118900 6419 24600 178400 19870 49430 413400 87370 31530 17730 113400 88310 8494 93160 432600 31820 87140 57260 50910 6003 2528

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-23 to 2020-07-31

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-22 296377 1367744 19929 64627 9584 9830 14570 204276 13350 267551 204641 4530 245032 52241 41162 49150 40163 78504 33883 13302 2227514 113790 334683 218428 1238798 91751 281413 362274 366550 72269 787890 394948 222402 3970906 2131 70413 33980 150609 421286 41680 47993 11529 13631 379199 137203 40195 16322 165259 58673 23481 24540 99345 113912 80172 79338 47839 32395 47071 2812 105276 5367 23359 176963 16867 38657 408886 78742 27298 15393 108187 75042 8077 79442 363615 28390 80393 49101 44847 5212 2288
2020-07-23 297100 1372000 20010 64870 9790 9879 14570 204500 13360 268400 204600 4623 245300 52350 41250 49430 40920 78730 33950 13710 2268000 114100 338200 224300 1277000 93100 283700 369100 368900 73750 790600 407100 223200 4059000 2187 72980 34750 153800 432200 42430 48040 11530 13730 388700 142000 40960 16860 166100 59510 23930 25080 101800 114100 80880 79840 48140 32920 47700 2949 107400 5491 23460 177100 17250 39970 409600 79810 27780 15760 109000 76680 8107 81620 371900 28980 82020 50210 45880 5394 2315
2020-07-24 297900 1379000 20110 65190 10040 9930 14670 204900 13380 269800 205300 4723 245600 52450 41460 49700 41640 78920 34050 14080 2309000 114400 339700 230500 1320000 94600 286300 375500 373000 74750 793200 418800 224000 4135000 2256 74530 35430 156200 442100 43270 48100 11560 13810 398100 144900 41660 17470 167000 60480 24430 25680 104100 114300 81680 80450 48580 33670 48550 3065 109400 5610 23670 177300 17590 40950 410300 80880 28260 16080 109900 78600 8135 83370 382700 29480 83360 51160 46830 5518 2354
2020-07-25 298600 1386000 20200 65400 10240 9941 14820 205200 13410 271200 206200 4795 245800 52580 41630 50010 42620 79100 34140 14450 2352000 114600 341200 235200 1358000 96100 288900 382300 375800 76050 794800 429200 224800 4200000 2324 76030 36170 158400 452500 44100 48170 11580 13860 406300 148400 42200 18030 167900 61600 24930 26270 106800 114500 82360 81110 49000 34580 49510 3175 111500 5739 23850 177500 17900 41830 410900 81960 28860 16400 110800 80650 8158 85410 392000 29990 85250 52110 47850 5636 2399
2020-07-26 299200 1390000 20280 65640 10400 9956 14950 205700 13430 272500 206900 4878 246000 52700 41730 50120 43350 79300 34220 14700 2381000 114900 342500 240900 1394000 97400 291500 388800 379000 77110 796100 438700 225600 4275000 2384 77610 36790 160700 459700 44490 48230 11580 13910 414000 151500 42700 18570 168600 62510 25350 26630 108500 114700 82940 81650 49290 34910 50310 3252 113600 5834 24020 177700 18190 42790 411600 82930 29590 16680 111600 81850 8169 87160 398600 30480 86060 52750 48730 5727 2448
2020-07-27 299900 1396000 20340 65940 10550 9956 15050 206000 13450 273800 207500 4959 246100 52780 41860 50350 44080 79460 34310 15020 2407000 115300 343600 244900 1430000 98600 294100 394700 382200 77960 796100 449000 226300 4337000 2429 79090 37390 162700 467100 44900 48290 11580 13920 421800 154300 42860 19080 169100 63170 25880 27000 110100 114900 83350 82240 49550 35360 50990 3339 116000 5982 24170 177800 18430 43470 412200 83870 30150 16910 112500 83210 8172 88500 407800 30970 86920 53430 49340 5808 2496
2020-07-28 300600 1400000 20400 66040 10700 9956 15180 206500 13470 274600 208200 5038 246200 52830 41910 50610 44740 79620 34360 15310 2434000 115600 344600 249100 1468000 99900 296800 400600 384200 78720 796100 458400 227100 4395000 2485 80430 37910 164500 475400 45130 48350 11590 13940 429500 156400 43140 19610 169400 63220 26370 27610 112000 115000 83800 82750 49710 36030 51900 3442 117900 6098 24200 177900 18710 44070 412900 84860 30760 17180 113400 84480 8173 90120 417400 31430 87450 54180 50210 5889 2540
2020-07-29 301200 1405000 20460 66190 10870 9956 15310 206800 13470 275800 208700 5097 246300 52870 41970 50840 45340 79770 34390 15580 2463000 115800 345600 254200 1497000 100900 299700 406100 386500 79640 796100 467800 227800 4456000 2531 81750 38450 166300 482300 45320 48400 11600 13970 436400 159700 43630 20070 169400 63730 26840 28070 113400 115100 83990 83310 49830 36590 52710 3510 119500 6213 24300 178200 18970 44940 413500 85680 31340 17420 114300 85720 8173 91520 424200 31850 88420 55030 50900 5977 2579
2020-07-30 301800 1410000 20530 66380 11020 9956 15450 207100 13480 276600 208800 5164 246400 52890 42060 51060 46020 79920 34400 15780 2493000 116200 346500 258000 1534000 101900 302400 411300 388500 80740 796100 475400 228700 4503000 2577 82950 39040 168000 490200 45520 48440 11600 13980 443300 162200 44020 20510 169400 64310 27190 28520 115100 115100 84260 83850 49930 37110 53140 3590 121200 6315 24390 178300 19220 45640 414000 86370 31920 17620 115100 86970 8173 92710 429600 32230 89090 55780 51530 6088 2624
2020-07-31 302600 1414000 20590 66450 11190 9956 15580 207300 13480 277700 209100 5209 246400 52900 42060 51320 46500 80030 34400 15940 2514000 116300 347500 260300 1565000 102900 305000 415200 390200 81440 796100 483100 229500 4545000 2619 84050 39550 169600 496400 45720 48490 11600 13980 449000 164600 44270 20920 169400 64690 27510 28930 116600 115100 84360 84340 50070 37380 53610 3685 122600 6412 24470 178400 19420 46230 414600 87000 32430 17760 116000 88090 8173 93860 435200 32550 89780 56380 52310 6147 2664

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed