COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-08-22

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
Peak date	04-07	04-02	03-26	04-15	07-22	03-28	--	03-27	04-06	03-30	04-04	04-12	--	--	04-10	04-10	03-24	03-31	--	04-10	08-10	06-03	03-31	--	03-26	03-27
Peak daily increment	4726	29657	810	1470	246	278		5662	316	8059	146	19785			105	1116	5648	1079		830	1236	1337	52		240	1139
Days from 100 to peak	36	71	18	38	124	15		25	28	27	22	43			20	27	30	25		28	149	89	18		19	22
Days from peak/2 to peak	24	24	13	32	123	14		14	27	17	22	24			23	21	20	19		23	139	82	21		18	17
Last total	324601	1725065	25062	81468	15131	12621	21790	233861	16239	386054	7906	260873	8381	7900	5133	27908	258136	66097	61181	55452	77544	86068	2617	3316	10299	39627
Last daily increment	1288	10566	300	574	0	109	239	832	112	0	35	3540	243	306	35	153	1071	508	900	241	1189	0	43	91	24	295
Last week	6117	108895	1692	3145	766	557	1778	8854	622	43241	175	21567	1306	1329	217	651	4221	3095	4497	1350	7083	1774	201	414	294	1503
Days since peak	137	142	149	129	31	147		148	138	145	140	132			134	134	151	144		134	12	80	144		149	148

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-08-22

	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-ME	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
Peak date	07-30	08-06	05-03	06-06	08-19	--	--	04-01	07-23	--	08-17	05-09	07-16	04-14	07-24	07-26	07-16	07-23	07-04	07-22	04-24	04-20	05-01	08-14	07-17	07-25	--	--	07-18	05-12	--	--	--	07-22	04-24	05-06	05-22	04-06	07-25	07-25	07-22	--	07-20	--	05-01	05-01	04-08	07-22	07-23	03-31	07-03	07-25	07-23	04-09	07-16	--	07-25	07-16	07-10	08-07	08-01	07-23	08-01	04-21
Peak daily increment	469	44978	1985	7346	11267			2861	6738		4497	10914	12483	4816	67129	98	1805	748	3543	9414	729	1012	190	209	11222	3292			536	2694				2222	3308	1017	48	1624	700	1201	1298		1986		441	89	4272	291	1127	9432	1788	944	335	1624	1834		2118	9847	495	1451	1091	917	132	86
Days from 100 to peak	142	144	51	83	154			36	126		154	52	119	27	137	118	117	122	104	134	40	30	39	142	123	131			115	59				128	40	47	59	21	126	125	122		123		33	38	24	119	124	20	106	123	125	23	117		128	121	111	141	146	126	125	22
Days from peak/2 to peak	137	115	43	64	114			29	105		137	34	75	19	123	122	107	116	92	116	35	27	40	142	108	120			112	49				121	30	41	65	15	120	119	115		114		29	41	16	117	117	12	98	117	123	16	108		120	105	108	132	140	121	127	27
Last total	24811	3582362	126560	395708	522138	3044940	151498	356792	556216	576067	187249	949531	607045	257032	5667112	4676	109566	55386	197895	664435	54864	51305	13534	16556	596762	233098	6333	55992	29656	218237	85317	37388	43066	141479	115465	103523	4317	100844	68747	66621	77268	6376	153640	9736	31610	7092	188919	22786	65069	429165	114165	52588	24710	133160	111295	11135	136028	589349	38974	112068	70338	70009	9185	3543
Last daily increment	209	50032	241	1939	0	69239	2090	2028	6482	9008	4884	4860	3707	1309	44572	89	900	539	996	5535	653	0	65	55	4288	2618	284	669	295	2370	1000	493	801	0	88	624	32	1425	750	1211	945	160	1730	262	167	23	430	5	636	653	1119	859	289	743	917	251	1346	3717	304	1211	801	950	108	19
Last week	1253	242165	2556	9762	53806	397277	11949	13589	34054	50264	25996	28812	19700	7723	263899	418	5487	3476	4358	40562	1707	624	314	366	24116	15664	1314	3545	2003	12197	4902	3503	4136	3796	-5813	3311	151	3816	3741	6074	5132	626	8688	1149	1392	104	1906	683	3764	3657	5878	4253	1448	4090	4798	861	8590	33955	1789	5381	3130	4268	618	257
Days since peak	23	16	111	77	3			143	30		5	105	37	130	29	27	37	30	49	31	120	124	113	8	36	28			35	102				31	120	108	92	138	28	28	31		33		113	113	136	31	30	144	50	28	30	135	37		28	37	43	15	21	30	21	123

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-23 to 2020-08-29

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
2020-08-22	324601	1725065	25062	81468	15131	12621	21790	233861	16239	386054	260873	8381	7900	5133	27908	258136	66097	61181	55452	77544	86068	2617	3316	10299	39627
2020-08-23	325400	1725000	25330	82190	15370	12660	22110	233900	16410	386100	264800	8586	8270	5164	28000	258900	66620	62470	55650	78800	86150	2645	3388	10350	39870
2020-08-24	326200	1742000	25580	82470	15470	12680	22470	235000	16570	394900	267600	8787	8480	5195	28080	259500	67150	63560	55850	79530	86840	2672	3461	10400	40100
2020-08-25	327200	1754000	25840	82810	15620	12740	22950	236300	16720	400000	270700	8988	8780	5225	28160	260200	67660	64650	56040	80590	86990	2699	3535	10450	40330
2020-08-26	328000	1767000	26090	83350	15770	12840	23420	237700	16870	404700	273400	9187	9090	5254	28240	260900	68170	65910	56230	81940	87200	2724	3610	10500	40550
2020-08-27	329000	1780000	26340	83990	15890	12950	23820	239000	17030	410400	276100	9389	9410	5283	28320	261700	68680	67310	56410	83250	87560	2749	3688	10550	40770
2020-08-28	330100	1807000	26590	84790	16060	13040	24470	240700	17180	418200	278800	9592	9750	5312	28400	262600	69190	68770	56600	84610	87870	2774	3767	10590	40990
2020-08-29	331200	1815000	26840	85370	16090	13140	24880	241300	17330	418200	281400	9798	10100	5341	28480	263300	69700	70260	56790	85810	87870	2799	3848	10640	41210

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-23 to 2020-08-29

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-08-22	24811	3582362	126560	395708	522138	3044940	151498	356792	556216	576067	187249	949531	607045	257032	5667112	4676	109566	55386	197895	664435	54864	51305	13534	16556	596762	233098	6333	55992	29656	218237	85317	37388	43066	141479	103523	100844	68747	66621	77268	6376	153640	9736	31610	188919	22786	65069	429165	114165	52588	24710	133160	111295	11135	136028	589349	38974	112068	70338	70009	9185	3543
2020-08-23	25080	3628000	126900	398100	524800	3099000	154900	358700	562500	581900	191500	954200	610500	258200	5726000	4747	111200	56010	200000	673500	55180	51390	13590	16610	601900	237000	6606	56920	30040	219100	86330	37890	44210	142500	104100	101400	69520	67630	78070	6504	155000	9970	31850	189300	22950	65930	429800	115200	53280	24980	134000	112100	11300	137200	600400	39330	113000	71010	70930	9356	3581
2020-08-24	25360	3644000	127300	399600	527600	3154000	157900	360600	566000	589000	195600	958800	612000	259400	5755000	4815	112700	56610	200400	680100	55480	51480	13650	16670	607100	238400	6866	57760	30410	220700	86880	38580	45290	143400	104700	101900	70030	68600	78840	6636	155900	10200	32090	189600	23120	66750	430400	116200	53940	25240	134600	112900	11470	138300	605700	39520	113900	71670	71350	9425	3617
2020-08-25	25620	3689000	127600	400800	530200	3217000	160800	362400	571400	596300	199800	963400	613100	260600	5791000	4883	114200	57220	201200	687800	55790	51550	13710	16720	612200	241200	7129	58680	30790	222400	87680	39310	46340	144200	105300	102500	70360	69570	79610	6768	157100	10440	32320	189900	23280	67590	431000	117200	54610	25490	135200	113600	11650	139500	612900	39740	114800	72310	71550	9515	3654
2020-08-26	25890	3739000	128000	402000	533100	3283000	164100	364300	576900	603400	203900	967900	616700	261800	5832000	4949	115600	57820	202100	696600	56090	51630	13770	16780	617200	244000	7386	59670	31160	224300	88210	40070	47450	145100	105900	103100	70870	70520	80350	6905	158000	10680	32560	190200	23450	68420	431600	118100	55250	25750	135800	114400	11880	140600	619000	40010	115600	72950	72570	9602	3689
2020-08-27	26160	3785000	128300	403700	536000	3350000	167600	366100	583300	610600	208100	972400	621700	262900	5868000	5016	117000	58410	203000	702600	56400	51700	13820	16830	622300	246700	7646	60970	31540	226000	89130	40840	48590	145900	106500	103800	71550	71480	81100	7045	159400	10930	32790	190600	23610	69250	432200	119100	55890	26010	136600	115200	12070	141800	624500	40360	116500	73590	73310	9753	3725
2020-08-28	26440	3819000	128700	405500	539000	3419000	171300	368000	588700	617900	212300	976900	625100	264100	5910000	5083	118400	59010	203800	710200	56710	51780	13880	16880	627500	249500	7908	62310	31920	228300	90170	41630	49760	146800	107100	104000	72250	72440	81860	7189	161100	11190	33030	190900	23780	70090	432800	120100	56540	26270	137200	115900	12340	142900	630500	40720	117400	74230	74100	9854	3760
2020-08-29	26710	3865000	129000	407300	542000	3486000	174900	369800	595000	625200	216600	981400	628700	265200	5954000	5150	119900	59610	204700	715500	57010	51850	13940	16940	632600	252200	8173	63590	32300	230400	91140	42440	50950	147700	107700	105200	72970	73410	82610	7335	162800	11450	33270	191200	23950	70930	433300	121000	57180	26530	137900	116700	12610	144100	635000	41010	118300	74880	75010	9974	3796

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-23 to 2020-08-29

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
2020-08-22	324601	1725065	25062	81468	15131	12621	21790	233861	16239	386054	260873	8381	7900	5133	27908	258136	66097	61181	55452	77544	86068	2617	3316	10299	39627
2020-08-23	325100	1729000	25200	81880	15170	12640	22020	234000	16340	387700	262200	8590	8089	5161	27950	258200	66540	62140	55570	78590	86060	2632	3353	10350	39760
2020-08-24	325900	1738000	25380	82320	15280	12660	22360	234300	16460	392800	264500	8790	8310	5189	28030	258400	67030	63310	55740	79540	86430	2653	3406	10400	39960
2020-08-25	326800	1748000	25620	82770	15420	12710	22790	234900	16580	398200	266400	9030	8549	5212	28110	258600	67530	64480	55910	80660	86510	2673	3474	10440	40160
2020-08-26	327600	1759000	25840	83300	15540	12790	23210	235600	16710	403400	268300	9270	8812	5237	28200	258900	68060	65720	56080	81930	86620	2693	3555	10490	40360
2020-08-27	328400	1771000	26060	83880	15660	12860	23600	236100	16830	408400	270100	9520	9084	5268	28280	259200	68580	67090	56240	83210	86800	2715	3630	10530	40560
2020-08-28	329300	1785000	26300	84520	15850	12940	24110	236700	16960	413500	271600	9770	9365	5299	28370	259500	69100	68540	56410	84520	86970	2737	3711	10580	40760
2020-08-29	330100	1793000	26530	85120	15950	13010	24450	237000	17080	416400	274800	10070	9653	5326	28460	259800	69630	69980	56570	85790	86980	2761	3792	10620	40960

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-23 to 2020-08-29

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-08-22	24811	3582362	126560	395708	522138	3044940	151498	356792	556216	576067	187249	949531	607045	257032	5667112	4676	109566	55386	197895	664435	54864	51305	13534	16556	596762	233098	6333	55992	29656	218237	85317	37388	43066	141479	103523	100844	68747	66621	77268	6376	153640	9736	31610	188919	22786	65069	429165	114165	52588	24710	133160	111295	11135	136028	589349	38974	112068	70338	70009	9185	3543
2020-08-23	24930	3600000	126800	397500	528600	3099000	154200	358300	559900	581800	190400	952100	608100	258100	5692000	4723	110000	55830	198300	668300	55030	51370	13590	16620	599400	234900	6515	56800	29880	219200	85970	37940	43960	142700	104000	101100	69240	67250	77650	6460	154100	9850	31800	189200	22900	65550	429700	114600	52900	24880	133700	111500	11220	137200	594800	39200	112500	70630	70500	9283	3571
2020-08-24	25080	3614000	127100	398900	538400	3157000	157400	360000	564300	589500	194300	954800	609700	259300	5715000	4784	110700	56350	198600	673800	55210	51440	13640	16690	602800	236700	6730	57710	30220	220900	86640	38800	44920	143500	104500	101600	69760	68180	78180	6542	154600	10020	32030	189500	23010	66130	430300	115300	53320	25090	134300	112000	11390	138500	600000	39420	113300	70980	70900	9365	3606
2020-08-25	25230	3661000	127300	400200	548300	3221000	160700	361600	569400	597200	198300	957300	611200	260500	5744000	4849	111500	56850	199100	679900	55480	51500	13690	16760	606800	239400	6945	58670	30590	222600	87460	39540	45910	144400	105000	102100	70200	69110	78840	6653	155500	10250	32260	189800	23130	66760	430800	116100	53820	25330	134900	112600	11560	139800	607300	39670	114100	71340	71100	9461	3642
2020-08-26	25400	3710000	127600	401400	558500	3290000	164200	363200	574700	604900	202400	959600	613600	261600	5777000	4915	112300	57460	199700	686800	55750	51570	13730	16840	611100	242000	7207	59670	30950	224500	88120	40390	46920	145300	105500	102700	70740	70040	79620	6832	156500	10470	32490	190200	23280	67320	431400	117100	54390	25550	135600	113300	11750	141200	613500	39930	114900	71740	72100	9554	3679
2020-08-27	25570	3756000	127900	403100	568700	3360000	167900	364700	580700	612800	206500	961900	616800	262800	5806000	4981	113000	58080	200300	692000	56040	51640	13790	16910	615800	244800	7477	60830	31370	226100	89020	41220	47960	146200	106000	103300	71390	70990	80290	6996	157900	10760	32730	190500	23430	67890	432000	118100	54980	25820	136300	114000	11930	142600	619300	40240	115700	72250	72820	9684	3711
2020-08-28	25740	3799000	128100	405000	579200	3431000	172000	366200	586400	620700	210700	964200	620400	264000	5848000	5048	113800	58750	201000	698800	56290	51710	13850	16990	620900	247800	7748	62010	31800	228100	89990	42120	49020	147100	106600	103900	72030	71950	80940	7170	159400	11010	32980	190800	23560	68570	432600	119200	55570	26090	137100	114700	12140	144000	626700	40570	116500	72770	73660	9803	3747
2020-08-29	25900	3847000	128400	406800	589900	3501000	176100	367500	592300	628800	215000	966500	623100	265200	5883000	5116	114600	59330	201800	703600	56610	51780	13910	17060	626300	250800	8076	63200	32160	230000	90930	43090	50110	147700	107200	104700	72680	72910	81650	7365	160700	11250	33210	191200	23680	69240	433200	120200	56160	26400	137800	115400	12330	145400	632900	40860	117300	73310	74520	9942	3785

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-08-23 to 2020-08-31

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-08-22	324601	1725065	25062	81468	15131	12621	21790	233861	16239	386054	260873	8381	7900	5133	27908	258136	66097	61181	55452	77544	86068	2617	3316	10299	39627	24811	3582362	126560	395708	522138	3044940	151498	356792	556216	576067	187249	949531	607045	257032	5667112	4676	109566	55386	197895	664435	54864	51305	13534	16556	596762	233098	6333	55992	29656	218237	85317	37388	43066	141479	103523	100844	68747	66621	77268	6376	153640	9736	31610	188919	22786	65069	429165	114165	52588	24710	133160	111295	11135	136028	589349	38974	112068	70338	70009	9185	3543
2020-08-23	325400	1741000	25350	82040	15340	12660	22090	235300	16450	392300	261200	8650	8101	5170	27970	258800	66660	62180	55580	78480	86480	2626	3354	10370	39910	25000	3614000	126900	397200	538600	3110000	154300	359400	559900	584200	190800	953700	607900	258100	5707000	4720	110100	56220	198300	672000	55600	51430	13590	16730	600400	235400	6510	56650	29970	219500	86520	37930	43870	142600	104100	101400	69730	67500	77630	6484	154000	9880	31900	189300	23020	65560	429800	114900	52760	24920	133900	111500	11220	137100	596600	39120	113700	70760	71050	9286	3580
2020-08-24	326300	1758000	25700	82540	15410	12740	22540	236600	16590	398400	263000	8930	8364	5205	28060	259500	67240	63100	55770	79570	86790	2649	3444	10420	40180	25190	3648000	127300	398500	551800	3215000	157300	361800	564400	594700	195000	958100	610000	259400	5746000	4779	110600	57490	198900	678100	56480	51490	13650	16790	604000	237600	6778	57790	30250	221400	88440	38920	44720	143100	104700	102100	71270	69060	78170	6633	155100	10100	32120	189600	23130	65990	430500	115600	53240	25130	134700	112100	11410	138100	601300	39350	115900	71120	72310	9378	3621
2020-08-25	327500	1772000	26090	83050	15490	12820	22720	237900	16720	404400	264700	9110	8605	5240	28170	260200	67860	63740	56000	80530	87130	2667	3467	10490	40450	25360	3685000	127600	400000	558000	3249000	159000	364300	568100	600300	198200	962600	611700	260500	5781000	4833	111200	57650	199400	684000	56840	51550	13700	16840	607000	239500	6930	57950	30530	223700	88670	39090	45450	143700	105200	102900	71840	69550	78720	6713	156000	10230	32340	189900	23230	66360	431100	116300	53670	25320	135400	112700	11490	139100	606200	39530	116600	71490	72680	9473	3665
2020-08-26	328600	1790000	26510	83530	15600	12880	23040	239800	16910	412300	269500	9340	8843	5278	28280	260800	68380	64520	56210	81500	87480	2689	3541	10550	40700	25520	3715000	128000	401400	568200	3314000	161400	367000	571600	608600	202000	967200	613200	261300	5814000	4883	111800	58470	199800	689200	57570	51630	13750	16930	609900	241400	7233	58590	30750	225700	89720	39810	46090	144200	105800	103800	72690	70610	79230	6806	157000	10430	32540	190300	23330	66720	431800	116900	54080	25490	136200	113200	11600	140100	609900	39680	118200	71740	73610	9552	3701
2020-08-27	329700	1811000	27000	83900	15670	13030	23340	241900	17120	420800	271600	9510	9051	5322	28380	261500	69550	64650	56410	82360	87690	2711	3595	10620	40960	25620	3749000	128300	403000	577300	3373000	163600	369100	574900	611300	205000	971900	614500	262000	5845000	4929	112300	58810	200300	693800	58180	51710	13810	17030	612600	243200	7429	58710	30970	227600	90210	40360	46660	144800	106300	104400	73130	71580	79740	6933	157800	10560	32750	190700	23420	67030	432500	117600	54460	25670	137000	113700	11600	141000	613700	39820	118900	72080	73840	9633	3733
2020-08-28	331300	1831000	27600	84290	15740	13120	23590	244000	17230	429800	274400	9680	9286	5383	28560	262000	70410	64970	56720	83120	87900	2734	3641	10670	41230	25760	3779000	128700	404300	587300	3405000	165800	372700	578200	611300	207600	976900	615900	262800	5870000	4964	112800	59200	200600	697800	58530	51800	13860	17060	614700	245000	7578	58730	31160	229500	90250	40910	47230	145300	106800	105000	73760	72580	80190	7000	158600	10630	32950	191100	23520	67370	433100	118200	54870	25830	137900	114000	11640	141900	616800	39950	119500	72400	73920	9706	3763
2020-08-29	332500	1853000	28050	84640	15790	13230	23850	245000	17390	437800	277000	9880	9495	5461	28690	262100	71180	65260	56980	84040	88120	2763	3698	10720	41600	25880	3805000	129000	404900	595300	3456000	167800	375100	581200	611300	210400	981800	617100	263400	5895000	5002	113200	59560	201000	701600	59030	51860	13910	17100	616800	246600	7766	58880	31330	231200	90720	41500	47810	145800	107300	105500	74450	73610	80600	7140	159400	10780	33170	191500	23610	67630	433800	118800	55000	25950	138900	114300	11660	142600	619900	40130	120600	72600	74160	9778	3804
2020-08-30	334300	1869000	28370	84990	15850	13290	24030	245900	17580	443500	277000	10030	9710	5522	28830	262100	71420	65870	57310	84920	88250	2794	3755	10730	41930	25990	3839000	129400	405800	603400	3510000	169700	376900	583800	616100	211700	986300	618100	264300	5918000	5036	113500	59750	201300	705000	59430	51890	13960	17120	618700	247900	7910	59000	31490	233300	91120	41930	48270	146300	107900	106200	74970	74350	80960	7175	160000	10870	33390	191900	23670	67870	434400	119200	55310	26080	139900	114600	11730	143300	622500	40230	121400	72880	74630	9847	3822
2020-08-31	335100	1884000	28720	85290	15890	13390	24230	246600	17650	446600	277000	10210	9901	5556	28970	262200	71790	65980	57510	85670	88370	2832	3801	10730	42240	26100	3865000	129600	406200	610500	3561000	171200	379800	585700	616500	214300	990000	619500	265100	5938000	5069	113600	59750	201600	708200	59760	51960	14020	17180	620800	249300	8015	59000	31620	235200	91120	42460	48820	146500	108500	106800	75120	75160	81210	7188	160600	10970	33610	192200	23750	68070	435000	119600	55470	26200	140900	114900	11730	144000	625500	40350	121400	73150	74630	9912	3834

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-08-22

General information