COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-08-22


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-08-22

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-1507-2203-28 --03-2704-0603-3004-0404-12 -- --04-1004-1003-2403-31 --04-1008-1006-0303-31 --03-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4726 29657 810 1470 246 278 5662 316 8059 146 19785 105 1116 5648 1079 830 1236 1337 52 240 1139
Days from 100 to peak 36 71 18 38 124 15 25 28 27 22 43 20 27 30 25 28 149 89 18 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 123 14 14 27 17 22 24 23 21 20 19 23 139 82 21 18 17
Last total 324601 1725065 25062 81468 15131 12621 21790 233861 16239 386054 7906 260873 8381 7900 5133 27908 258136 66097 61181 55452 77544 86068 2617 3316 10299 39627
Last daily increment 1288 10566 300 574 0 109 239 832 112 0 35 3540 243 306 35 153 1071 508 900 241 1189 0 43 91 24 295
Last week 6117 108895 1692 3145 766 557 1778 8854 622 43241 175 21567 1306 1329 217 651 4221 3095 4497 1350 7083 1774 201 414 294 1503
Days since peak 137 142 149 129 31 147 148 138 145 140 132 134 134 151 144 134 12 80 144 149 148

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-08-22

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date07-3008-0605-0306-0608-19 -- --04-0107-23 --08-1705-0907-1604-1407-2407-2607-1607-2307-0407-2204-2404-2005-0108-1407-1707-25 -- --07-1805-12 -- -- --07-2204-2405-0605-2204-0607-2507-2507-22 --07-20 --05-0105-0104-0807-2207-2303-3107-0307-2507-2304-0907-16 --07-2507-1607-1008-0708-0107-2308-0104-21
Peak daily increment 469 44978 1985 7346 11267 2861 6738 4497 10914 12483 4816 67129 98 1805 748 3543 9414 729 1012 190 209 11222 3292 536 2694 2222 3308 1017 48 1624 700 1201 1298 1986 441 89 4272 291 1127 9432 1788 944 335 1624 1834 2118 9847 495 1451 1091 917 132 86
Days from 100 to peak 142 144 51 83 154 36 126 154 52 119 27 137 118 117 122 104 134 40 30 39 142 123 131 115 59 128 40 47 59 21 126 125 122 123 33 38 24 119 124 20 106 123 125 23 117 128 121 111 141 146 126 125 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 137 115 43 64 114 29 105 137 34 75 19 123 122 107 116 92 116 35 27 40 142 108 120 112 49 121 30 41 65 15 120 119 115 114 29 41 16 117 117 12 98 117 123 16 108 120 105 108 132 140 121 127 27
Last total 24811 3582362 126560 395708 522138 3044940 151498 356792 556216 576067 187249 949531 607045 257032 5667112 4676 109566 55386 197895 664435 54864 51305 13534 16556 596762 233098 6333 55992 29656 218237 85317 37388 43066 141479 115465 103523 4317 100844 68747 66621 77268 6376 153640 9736 31610 7092 188919 22786 65069 429165 114165 52588 24710 133160 111295 11135 136028 589349 38974 112068 70338 70009 9185 3543
Last daily increment 209 50032 241 1939 0 69239 2090 2028 6482 9008 4884 4860 3707 1309 44572 89 900 539 996 5535 653 0 65 55 4288 2618 284 669 295 2370 1000 493 801 0 88 624 32 1425 750 1211 945 160 1730 262 167 23 430 5 636 653 1119 859 289 743 917 251 1346 3717 304 1211 801 950 108 19
Last week 1253 242165 2556 9762 53806 397277 11949 13589 34054 50264 25996 28812 19700 7723 263899 418 5487 3476 4358 40562 1707 624 314 366 24116 15664 1314 3545 2003 12197 4902 3503 4136 3796 -5813 3311 151 3816 3741 6074 5132 626 8688 1149 1392 104 1906 683 3764 3657 5878 4253 1448 4090 4798 861 8590 33955 1789 5381 3130 4268 618 257
Days since peak 23 16 111 77 3 143 30 5 105 37 130 29 27 37 30 49 31 120 124 113 8 36 28 35 102 31 120 108 92 138 28 28 31 33 113 113 136 31 30 144 50 28 30 135 37 28 37 43 15 21 30 21 123

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-23 to 2020-08-29

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-08-22 324601 1725065 25062 81468 15131 12621 21790 233861 16239 386054 260873 8381 7900 5133 27908 258136 66097 61181 55452 77544 86068 2617 3316 10299 39627
2020-08-23 325400 1725000 25330 82190 15370 12660 22110 233900 16410 386100 264800 8586 8270 5164 28000 258900 66620 62470 55650 78800 86150 2645 3388 10350 39870
2020-08-24 326200 1742000 25580 82470 15470 12680 22470 235000 16570 394900 267600 8787 8480 5195 28080 259500 67150 63560 55850 79530 86840 2672 3461 10400 40100
2020-08-25 327200 1754000 25840 82810 15620 12740 22950 236300 16720 400000 270700 8988 8780 5225 28160 260200 67660 64650 56040 80590 86990 2699 3535 10450 40330
2020-08-26 328000 1767000 26090 83350 15770 12840 23420 237700 16870 404700 273400 9187 9090 5254 28240 260900 68170 65910 56230 81940 87200 2724 3610 10500 40550
2020-08-27 329000 1780000 26340 83990 15890 12950 23820 239000 17030 410400 276100 9389 9410 5283 28320 261700 68680 67310 56410 83250 87560 2749 3688 10550 40770
2020-08-28 330100 1807000 26590 84790 16060 13040 24470 240700 17180 418200 278800 9592 9750 5312 28400 262600 69190 68770 56600 84610 87870 2774 3767 10590 40990
2020-08-29 331200 1815000 26840 85370 16090 13140 24880 241300 17330 418200 281400 9798 10100 5341 28480 263300 69700 70260 56790 85810 87870 2799 3848 10640 41210

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-23 to 2020-08-29

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-22 24811 3582362 126560 395708 522138 3044940 151498 356792 556216 576067 187249 949531 607045 257032 5667112 4676 109566 55386 197895 664435 54864 51305 13534 16556 596762 233098 6333 55992 29656 218237 85317 37388 43066 141479 103523 100844 68747 66621 77268 6376 153640 9736 31610 188919 22786 65069 429165 114165 52588 24710 133160 111295 11135 136028 589349 38974 112068 70338 70009 9185 3543
2020-08-23 25080 3628000 126900 398100 524800 3099000 154900 358700 562500 581900 191500 954200 610500 258200 5726000 4747 111200 56010 200000 673500 55180 51390 13590 16610 601900 237000 6606 56920 30040 219100 86330 37890 44210 142500 104100 101400 69520 67630 78070 6504 155000 9970 31850 189300 22950 65930 429800 115200 53280 24980 134000 112100 11300 137200 600400 39330 113000 71010 70930 9356 3581
2020-08-24 25360 3644000 127300 399600 527600 3154000 157900 360600 566000 589000 195600 958800 612000 259400 5755000 4815 112700 56610 200400 680100 55480 51480 13650 16670 607100 238400 6866 57760 30410 220700 86880 38580 45290 143400 104700 101900 70030 68600 78840 6636 155900 10200 32090 189600 23120 66750 430400 116200 53940 25240 134600 112900 11470 138300 605700 39520 113900 71670 71350 9425 3617
2020-08-25 25620 3689000 127600 400800 530200 3217000 160800 362400 571400 596300 199800 963400 613100 260600 5791000 4883 114200 57220 201200 687800 55790 51550 13710 16720 612200 241200 7129 58680 30790 222400 87680 39310 46340 144200 105300 102500 70360 69570 79610 6768 157100 10440 32320 189900 23280 67590 431000 117200 54610 25490 135200 113600 11650 139500 612900 39740 114800 72310 71550 9515 3654
2020-08-26 25890 3739000 128000 402000 533100 3283000 164100 364300 576900 603400 203900 967900 616700 261800 5832000 4949 115600 57820 202100 696600 56090 51630 13770 16780 617200 244000 7386 59670 31160 224300 88210 40070 47450 145100 105900 103100 70870 70520 80350 6905 158000 10680 32560 190200 23450 68420 431600 118100 55250 25750 135800 114400 11880 140600 619000 40010 115600 72950 72570 9602 3689
2020-08-27 26160 3785000 128300 403700 536000 3350000 167600 366100 583300 610600 208100 972400 621700 262900 5868000 5016 117000 58410 203000 702600 56400 51700 13820 16830 622300 246700 7646 60970 31540 226000 89130 40840 48590 145900 106500 103800 71550 71480 81100 7045 159400 10930 32790 190600 23610 69250 432200 119100 55890 26010 136600 115200 12070 141800 624500 40360 116500 73590 73310 9753 3725
2020-08-28 26440 3819000 128700 405500 539000 3419000 171300 368000 588700 617900 212300 976900 625100 264100 5910000 5083 118400 59010 203800 710200 56710 51780 13880 16880 627500 249500 7908 62310 31920 228300 90170 41630 49760 146800 107100 104000 72250 72440 81860 7189 161100 11190 33030 190900 23780 70090 432800 120100 56540 26270 137200 115900 12340 142900 630500 40720 117400 74230 74100 9854 3760
2020-08-29 26710 3865000 129000 407300 542000 3486000 174900 369800 595000 625200 216600 981400 628700 265200 5954000 5150 119900 59610 204700 715500 57010 51850 13940 16940 632600 252200 8173 63590 32300 230400 91140 42440 50950 147700 107700 105200 72970 73410 82610 7335 162800 11450 33270 191200 23950 70930 433300 121000 57180 26530 137900 116700 12610 144100 635000 41010 118300 74880 75010 9974 3796

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-23 to 2020-08-29

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-08-22 324601 1725065 25062 81468 15131 12621 21790 233861 16239 386054 260873 8381 7900 5133 27908 258136 66097 61181 55452 77544 86068 2617 3316 10299 39627
2020-08-23 325100 1729000 25200 81880 15170 12640 22020 234000 16340 387700 262200 8590 8089 5161 27950 258200 66540 62140 55570 78590 86060 2632 3353 10350 39760
2020-08-24 325900 1738000 25380 82320 15280 12660 22360 234300 16460 392800 264500 8790 8310 5189 28030 258400 67030 63310 55740 79540 86430 2653 3406 10400 39960
2020-08-25 326800 1748000 25620 82770 15420 12710 22790 234900 16580 398200 266400 9030 8549 5212 28110 258600 67530 64480 55910 80660 86510 2673 3474 10440 40160
2020-08-26 327600 1759000 25840 83300 15540 12790 23210 235600 16710 403400 268300 9270 8812 5237 28200 258900 68060 65720 56080 81930 86620 2693 3555 10490 40360
2020-08-27 328400 1771000 26060 83880 15660 12860 23600 236100 16830 408400 270100 9520 9084 5268 28280 259200 68580 67090 56240 83210 86800 2715 3630 10530 40560
2020-08-28 329300 1785000 26300 84520 15850 12940 24110 236700 16960 413500 271600 9770 9365 5299 28370 259500 69100 68540 56410 84520 86970 2737 3711 10580 40760
2020-08-29 330100 1793000 26530 85120 15950 13010 24450 237000 17080 416400 274800 10070 9653 5326 28460 259800 69630 69980 56570 85790 86980 2761 3792 10620 40960

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-23 to 2020-08-29

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-22 24811 3582362 126560 395708 522138 3044940 151498 356792 556216 576067 187249 949531 607045 257032 5667112 4676 109566 55386 197895 664435 54864 51305 13534 16556 596762 233098 6333 55992 29656 218237 85317 37388 43066 141479 103523 100844 68747 66621 77268 6376 153640 9736 31610 188919 22786 65069 429165 114165 52588 24710 133160 111295 11135 136028 589349 38974 112068 70338 70009 9185 3543
2020-08-23 24930 3600000 126800 397500 528600 3099000 154200 358300 559900 581800 190400 952100 608100 258100 5692000 4723 110000 55830 198300 668300 55030 51370 13590 16620 599400 234900 6515 56800 29880 219200 85970 37940 43960 142700 104000 101100 69240 67250 77650 6460 154100 9850 31800 189200 22900 65550 429700 114600 52900 24880 133700 111500 11220 137200 594800 39200 112500 70630 70500 9283 3571
2020-08-24 25080 3614000 127100 398900 538400 3157000 157400 360000 564300 589500 194300 954800 609700 259300 5715000 4784 110700 56350 198600 673800 55210 51440 13640 16690 602800 236700 6730 57710 30220 220900 86640 38800 44920 143500 104500 101600 69760 68180 78180 6542 154600 10020 32030 189500 23010 66130 430300 115300 53320 25090 134300 112000 11390 138500 600000 39420 113300 70980 70900 9365 3606
2020-08-25 25230 3661000 127300 400200 548300 3221000 160700 361600 569400 597200 198300 957300 611200 260500 5744000 4849 111500 56850 199100 679900 55480 51500 13690 16760 606800 239400 6945 58670 30590 222600 87460 39540 45910 144400 105000 102100 70200 69110 78840 6653 155500 10250 32260 189800 23130 66760 430800 116100 53820 25330 134900 112600 11560 139800 607300 39670 114100 71340 71100 9461 3642
2020-08-26 25400 3710000 127600 401400 558500 3290000 164200 363200 574700 604900 202400 959600 613600 261600 5777000 4915 112300 57460 199700 686800 55750 51570 13730 16840 611100 242000 7207 59670 30950 224500 88120 40390 46920 145300 105500 102700 70740 70040 79620 6832 156500 10470 32490 190200 23280 67320 431400 117100 54390 25550 135600 113300 11750 141200 613500 39930 114900 71740 72100 9554 3679
2020-08-27 25570 3756000 127900 403100 568700 3360000 167900 364700 580700 612800 206500 961900 616800 262800 5806000 4981 113000 58080 200300 692000 56040 51640 13790 16910 615800 244800 7477 60830 31370 226100 89020 41220 47960 146200 106000 103300 71390 70990 80290 6996 157900 10760 32730 190500 23430 67890 432000 118100 54980 25820 136300 114000 11930 142600 619300 40240 115700 72250 72820 9684 3711
2020-08-28 25740 3799000 128100 405000 579200 3431000 172000 366200 586400 620700 210700 964200 620400 264000 5848000 5048 113800 58750 201000 698800 56290 51710 13850 16990 620900 247800 7748 62010 31800 228100 89990 42120 49020 147100 106600 103900 72030 71950 80940 7170 159400 11010 32980 190800 23560 68570 432600 119200 55570 26090 137100 114700 12140 144000 626700 40570 116500 72770 73660 9803 3747
2020-08-29 25900 3847000 128400 406800 589900 3501000 176100 367500 592300 628800 215000 966500 623100 265200 5883000 5116 114600 59330 201800 703600 56610 51780 13910 17060 626300 250800 8076 63200 32160 230000 90930 43090 50110 147700 107200 104700 72680 72910 81650 7365 160700 11250 33210 191200 23680 69240 433200 120200 56160 26400 137800 115400 12330 145400 632900 40860 117300 73310 74520 9942 3785

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-08-23 to 2020-08-31

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-22 324601 1725065 25062 81468 15131 12621 21790 233861 16239 386054 260873 8381 7900 5133 27908 258136 66097 61181 55452 77544 86068 2617 3316 10299 39627 24811 3582362 126560 395708 522138 3044940 151498 356792 556216 576067 187249 949531 607045 257032 5667112 4676 109566 55386 197895 664435 54864 51305 13534 16556 596762 233098 6333 55992 29656 218237 85317 37388 43066 141479 103523 100844 68747 66621 77268 6376 153640 9736 31610 188919 22786 65069 429165 114165 52588 24710 133160 111295 11135 136028 589349 38974 112068 70338 70009 9185 3543
2020-08-23 325400 1741000 25350 82040 15340 12660 22090 235300 16450 392300 261200 8650 8101 5170 27970 258800 66660 62180 55580 78480 86480 2626 3354 10370 39910 25000 3614000 126900 397200 538600 3110000 154300 359400 559900 584200 190800 953700 607900 258100 5707000 4720 110100 56220 198300 672000 55600 51430 13590 16730 600400 235400 6510 56650 29970 219500 86520 37930 43870 142600 104100 101400 69730 67500 77630 6484 154000 9880 31900 189300 23020 65560 429800 114900 52760 24920 133900 111500 11220 137100 596600 39120 113700 70760 71050 9286 3580
2020-08-24 326300 1758000 25700 82540 15410 12740 22540 236600 16590 398400 263000 8930 8364 5205 28060 259500 67240 63100 55770 79570 86790 2649 3444 10420 40180 25190 3648000 127300 398500 551800 3215000 157300 361800 564400 594700 195000 958100 610000 259400 5746000 4779 110600 57490 198900 678100 56480 51490 13650 16790 604000 237600 6778 57790 30250 221400 88440 38920 44720 143100 104700 102100 71270 69060 78170 6633 155100 10100 32120 189600 23130 65990 430500 115600 53240 25130 134700 112100 11410 138100 601300 39350 115900 71120 72310 9378 3621
2020-08-25 327500 1772000 26090 83050 15490 12820 22720 237900 16720 404400 264700 9110 8605 5240 28170 260200 67860 63740 56000 80530 87130 2667 3467 10490 40450 25360 3685000 127600 400000 558000 3249000 159000 364300 568100 600300 198200 962600 611700 260500 5781000 4833 111200 57650 199400 684000 56840 51550 13700 16840 607000 239500 6930 57950 30530 223700 88670 39090 45450 143700 105200 102900 71840 69550 78720 6713 156000 10230 32340 189900 23230 66360 431100 116300 53670 25320 135400 112700 11490 139100 606200 39530 116600 71490 72680 9473 3665
2020-08-26 328600 1790000 26510 83530 15600 12880 23040 239800 16910 412300 269500 9340 8843 5278 28280 260800 68380 64520 56210 81500 87480 2689 3541 10550 40700 25520 3715000 128000 401400 568200 3314000 161400 367000 571600 608600 202000 967200 613200 261300 5814000 4883 111800 58470 199800 689200 57570 51630 13750 16930 609900 241400 7233 58590 30750 225700 89720 39810 46090 144200 105800 103800 72690 70610 79230 6806 157000 10430 32540 190300 23330 66720 431800 116900 54080 25490 136200 113200 11600 140100 609900 39680 118200 71740 73610 9552 3701
2020-08-27 329700 1811000 27000 83900 15670 13030 23340 241900 17120 420800 271600 9510 9051 5322 28380 261500 69550 64650 56410 82360 87690 2711 3595 10620 40960 25620 3749000 128300 403000 577300 3373000 163600 369100 574900 611300 205000 971900 614500 262000 5845000 4929 112300 58810 200300 693800 58180 51710 13810 17030 612600 243200 7429 58710 30970 227600 90210 40360 46660 144800 106300 104400 73130 71580 79740 6933 157800 10560 32750 190700 23420 67030 432500 117600 54460 25670 137000 113700 11600 141000 613700 39820 118900 72080 73840 9633 3733
2020-08-28 331300 1831000 27600 84290 15740 13120 23590 244000 17230 429800 274400 9680 9286 5383 28560 262000 70410 64970 56720 83120 87900 2734 3641 10670 41230 25760 3779000 128700 404300 587300 3405000 165800 372700 578200 611300 207600 976900 615900 262800 5870000 4964 112800 59200 200600 697800 58530 51800 13860 17060 614700 245000 7578 58730 31160 229500 90250 40910 47230 145300 106800 105000 73760 72580 80190 7000 158600 10630 32950 191100 23520 67370 433100 118200 54870 25830 137900 114000 11640 141900 616800 39950 119500 72400 73920 9706 3763
2020-08-29 332500 1853000 28050 84640 15790 13230 23850 245000 17390 437800 277000 9880 9495 5461 28690 262100 71180 65260 56980 84040 88120 2763 3698 10720 41600 25880 3805000 129000 404900 595300 3456000 167800 375100 581200 611300 210400 981800 617100 263400 5895000 5002 113200 59560 201000 701600 59030 51860 13910 17100 616800 246600 7766 58880 31330 231200 90720 41500 47810 145800 107300 105500 74450 73610 80600 7140 159400 10780 33170 191500 23610 67630 433800 118800 55000 25950 138900 114300 11660 142600 619900 40130 120600 72600 74160 9778 3804
2020-08-30 334300 1869000 28370 84990 15850 13290 24030 245900 17580 443500 277000 10030 9710 5522 28830 262100 71420 65870 57310 84920 88250 2794 3755 10730 41930 25990 3839000 129400 405800 603400 3510000 169700 376900 583800 616100 211700 986300 618100 264300 5918000 5036 113500 59750 201300 705000 59430 51890 13960 17120 618700 247900 7910 59000 31490 233300 91120 41930 48270 146300 107900 106200 74970 74350 80960 7175 160000 10870 33390 191900 23670 67870 434400 119200 55310 26080 139900 114600 11730 143300 622500 40230 121400 72880 74630 9847 3822
2020-08-31 335100 1884000 28720 85290 15890 13390 24230 246600 17650 446600 277000 10210 9901 5556 28970 262200 71790 65980 57510 85670 88370 2832 3801 10730 42240 26100 3865000 129600 406200 610500 3561000 171200 379800 585700 616500 214300 990000 619500 265100 5938000 5069 113600 59750 201600 708200 59760 51960 14020 17180 620800 249300 8015 59000 31620 235200 91120 42460 48820 146500 108500 106800 75120 75160 81210 7188 160600 10970 33610 192200 23750 68070 435000 119600 55470 26200 140900 114900 11730 144000 625500 40350 121400 73150 74630 9912 3834

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed