COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-09-03

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
Peak date	04-07	04-02	03-26	04-15	07-24	03-27	--	03-27	04-04	--	04-04	04-12	08-23	--	--	04-10	03-24	03-31	08-22	04-10	08-06	06-19	--	--	03-26	03-27
Peak daily increment	4728	29682	808	1470	238	280		5662	316		146	19307	227			1117	5643	1079	733	830	1232	1075			240	1137
Days from 100 to peak	36	71	18	38	126	14		25	26		22	43	164			27	30	25	160	28	144	105			19	22
Days from peak/2 to peak	24	24	13	32	125	12		14	25		22	24	164			21	20	19	155	23	135	99			18	17
Last total	340411	1973786	28372	86544	16775	12230	26452	248840	17374	488513	8200	320656	10998	11094	6923	29206	272912	72464	69129	59051	91256	84729	3032	4163	11120	43127
Last daily increment	1735	25325	403	633	158	112	679	1429	179	8959	39	6926	241	369	301	92	1397	601	612	418	1365	197	53	121	86	364
Last week	8767	126701	1782	2592	710	497	2675	6714	674	49227	158	32001	1198	1545	1412	628	7503	3333	3649	1977	6788	771	235	435	538	1781
Days since peak	149	154	161	141	41	160		160	152		152	144	11			146	163	156	12	146	28	76			161	160

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-09-03

	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-ME	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
Peak date	08-03	08-04	05-03	06-06	08-23	--	--	04-01	08-01	08-02	08-17	05-09	07-16	04-14	07-19	07-26	07-16	08-03	07-04	07-21	04-24	04-20	05-01	08-14	07-17	08-01	08-29	08-27	07-17	05-12	--	--	--	07-19	04-24	05-06	05-22	04-06	--	--	07-24	08-31	07-18	--	05-01	05-01	04-08	07-23	07-19	04-01	07-03	07-28	07-24	04-09	07-16	08-27	07-27	07-16	07-10	08-07	08-01	07-23	--	04-21
Peak daily increment	496	46393	1991	7363	14671			2860	6791	8342	4234	10917	12483	4816	67031	101	1805	749	3551	9242	729	1012	190	226	11222	3333	240	1744	536	2695				2160	3312	1017	48	1627			1273	139	1972		441	89	4272	286	1108	9495	1810	963	334	1624	1837	540	2139	9846	495	1412	1084	906		86
Days from 100 to peak	146	142	51	83	156			36	135	137	153	52	119	27	133	118	118	133	104	132	40	30	39	142	124	138	156	157	114	58				125	40	48	60	21			125	157	121		34	38	24	120	120	22	106	126	126	23	117	149	130	121	111	141	146	126		22
Days from peak/2 to peak	141	113	43	64	112			29	114	115	138	34	75	19	118	122	107	127	92	115	35	27	40	141	108	127	154	144	111	48				118	30	41	65	15			117	158	112		29	41	16	118	113	12	98	120	124	16	108	143	122	105	108	132	140	121		27
Last total	26136	4041638	132527	416501	641574	3936747	184268	380746	616894	657129	228403	1006923	633015	274943	6150016	5463	118601	62052	203952	726018	58267	53112	14135	17361	635930	258637	9177	67670	32924	239915	96854	44394	50885	150461	119382	110012	4617	109616	77916	80119	85116	7871	172201	12629	35313	7345	192668	24491	70223	437107	127112	60987	27336	141570	121696	14337	153310	645422	42648	123637	75569	77856	10855	3941
Last daily increment	87	43773	586	1762	8253	83341	3622	1994	5937	0	1963	4958	2420	1642	36506	102	381	896	1091	4737	268	111	58	102	3545	2663	211	1215	263	1347	1104	547	894	814	386	693	50	769	988	1327	751	180	1648	362	469	39	377	200	351	889	1345	884	261	1038	1193	334	1809	3567	360	1119	477	727	197	30
Last week	589	236835	3185	10529	51082	472775	18381	10835	31156	35132	18859	29193	12883	9428	236075	375	4878	3284	3294	28633	1514	721	284	557	21083	11817	1371	4858	1551	10483	5541	3344	4128	4405	1915	3348	184	3970	4823	7442	3822	808	9710	1519	2002	132	2025	768	2371	4340	6988	4748	1282	4789	5745	1820	8828	26068	1896	6059	2520	3875	1029	191
Days since peak	31	30	123	89	11			155	33	32	17	117	49	142	46	39	49	31	61	44	132	136	125	20	48	33	5	7	48	114				46	132	120	104	150			41	3	47		125	125	148	42	46	155	62	37	41	147	49	7	38	49	55	27	33	42		135

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-04 to 2020-09-10

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
2020-09-03	340411	1973786	28372	86544	16775	12230	26452	248840	17374	488513	320656	10998	11094	6923	29206	272912	72464	69129	59051	91256	84729	3032	4163	11120	43127
2020-09-04	342300	1993000	28640	87250	16960	12240	26820	250700	17470	498100	324800	11220	11440	7157	29310	273700	72850	70150	59490	92590	85140	3078	4301	11210	43410
2020-09-05	344100	2011000	28900	87770	17020	12290	27330	251400	17560	509700	328700	11430	11790	7376	29410	274800	73290	70890	59890	93840	85140	3122	4426	11290	43670
2020-09-06	346100	2029000	29160	88140	17070	12340	27750	251800	17650	521900	332700	11650	12150	7604	29510	275800	73740	71440	60310	94730	85140	3166	4493	11380	43930
2020-09-07	347700	2047000	29420	88290	17150	12390	28320	253300	17740	534800	336400	11860	12520	7820	29610	276700	74200	71910	60700	95420	85420	3208	4573	11460	44180
2020-09-08	349200	2065000	29680	88560	17330	12440	28840	254500	17830	547900	340200	12080	12900	8037	29700	277400	74540	72470	61100	96450	85590	3251	4641	11540	44440
2020-09-09	351000	2083000	29940	88950	17480	12500	29630	255900	17920	561400	343900	12300	13300	8256	29800	278500	75150	73040	61500	97680	85630	3293	4730	11620	44690
2020-09-10	352400	2101000	30210	89510	17610	12550	30450	257200	18000	575300	347600	12520	13700	8478	29900	279700	75670	73690	61900	99010	85800	3336	4814	11700	44950

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-04 to 2020-09-10

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-09-03	26136	4041638	132527	416501	641574	3936747	184268	380746	616894	657129	228403	1006923	633015	274943	6150016	5463	118601	62052	203952	726018	58267	53112	14135	17361	635930	258637	9177	67670	32924	239915	96854	44394	50885	150461	119382	110012	109616	77916	80119	85116	7871	172201	12629	35313	192668	24491	70223	437107	127112	60987	27336	141570	121696	14337	153310	645422	42648	123637	75569	77856	10855
2020-09-04	26230	4078000	132900	418100	651000	4047000	188500	382500	622500	674200	232200	1012000	638000	276400	6200000	5564	119500	62750	204800	731200	58630	53220	14180	17450	640900	262100	9410	68930	33200	242300	97700	45280	51320	151200	119800	110500	110300	78870	81900	86100	7925	173200	12960	35610	193000	24610	70660	437800	127700	61700	27650	142000	122500	14700	154700	650100	42940	124500	76010	78730	11090
2020-09-05	26320	4118000	133300	420000	660300	4170000	192800	384100	628100	680200	235800	1016000	640200	277900	6243000	5648	120800	63370	205300	736400	58940	53330	14230	17530	645700	264100	9720	70100	33460	244200	98600	46160	52110	151200	120200	111000	110900	80470	83780	86860	8102	175400	13300	35880	193300	24730	71100	438400	128900	62380	27890	142700	123300	15070	156100	654700	43280	125400	76440	79520	11360
2020-09-06	26410	4135000	133700	421800	669600	4287000	197000	385700	631700	689200	239300	1021000	642300	279300	6275000	5703	121600	63790	205600	741500	59120	53440	14280	17610	650400	265100	9940	71250	33730	246000	99500	47040	52380	152400	120300	111500	111600	81960	85480	87360	8186	176600	13640	36160	193600	24850	71520	439000	129700	63070	28100	143300	124100	15390	157400	659300	43600	126200	76860	79990	11610
2020-09-07	26490	4169000	134100	423400	678900	4398000	201400	387300	635000	696600	242900	1025000	644100	280800	6309000	5744	122200	64090	205700	746600	59290	53550	14320	17690	655100	266600	10080	72370	33990	247500	100300	47960	52860	152700	120900	111900	112300	83280	87010	87600	8257	177600	13980	36420	193900	24970	71960	439600	130500	63730	28250	143800	124900	15640	158700	663900	43790	127100	77290	80270	11860
2020-09-08	26580	4212000	134500	424700	688300	4521000	205900	388900	640900	701300	246400	1030000	645500	282200	6347000	5779	123000	64390	206300	751600	59630	53660	14370	17760	659700	268900	10250	73500	34250	248900	101200	48900	53560	153300	120900	112400	112900	84450	88670	88290	8350	179300	14330	36680	194200	25090	72390	440200	131700	64400	28460	144500	125600	15890	160000	668500	44030	127900	77710	81030	12180
2020-09-09	26660	4256000	134900	426000	697700	4660000	210400	390400	645500	705900	250000	1034000	647600	283600	6383000	5837	123300	64930	206600	756800	59820	53770	14410	17840	664400	270600	10580	74630	34510	250900	102100	49850	54350	154100	121100	112900	113600	85860	90660	89070	8522	180500	14680	36940	194500	25210	72830	440800	132800	65080	28570	145300	126400	16140	161400	673100	44340	128800	78140	81630	12460
2020-09-10	26750	4299000	135400	427700	707200	4800000	215000	392000	651300	708600	253600	1039000	649800	285100	6418000	5926	123600	65710	207500	761900	60100	53890	14460	17920	669100	273100	10820	75770	34770	252200	102900	50830	55160	154900	121100	113400	114300	87670	92750	89680	8678	182100	15040	37210	194800	25330	73270	441400	134000	65750	28820	146200	127200	16480	162700	677800	44670	129600	78560	82330	12710

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-04 to 2020-09-10

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
2020-09-03	340411	1973786	28372	86544	16775	12230	26452	248840	17374	488513	320656	10998	11094	6923	29206	272912	72464	69129	59051	91256	84729	3032	4163	11120	43127
2020-09-04	341000	1982000	28550	86910	16880	12200	26790	249700	17420	498600	323100	11190	11380	7012	29280	273500	72740	69820	59220	92270	84750	3046	4217	11150	43270
2020-09-05	342000	1993000	28830	87350	16970	12250	27240	250100	17480	509900	325500	11390	11710	7123	29370	274000	73220	70530	59470	93420	84770	3071	4298	11200	43470
2020-09-06	343200	2003000	29040	87730	17030	12290	27650	250400	17560	521300	329400	11600	12040	7274	29470	274600	73680	71120	59730	94410	84780	3099	4363	11260	43660
2020-09-07	344300	2014000	29290	88020	17120	12320	28090	251100	17630	536300	332600	11800	12390	7472	29570	275100	74150	71660	59970	95300	84910	3127	4430	11330	43850
2020-09-08	345300	2024000	29550	88350	17280	12370	28630	251700	17700	549200	335600	12010	12760	7653	29670	275500	74540	72280	60210	96370	85020	3156	4498	11390	44040
2020-09-09	346300	2034000	29810	88810	17410	12370	29260	252400	17780	562500	337900	12240	13150	7850	29780	276000	75060	72950	60460	97570	85130	3186	4562	11460	44250
2020-09-10	347300	2043000	30110	89270	17530	12550	29750	253200	17870	576200	341000	12480	13550	8032	29880	276600	75520	73710	60720	98820	85260	3217	4632	11530	44440

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-04 to 2020-09-10

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-09-03	26136	4041638	132527	416501	641574	3936747	184268	380746	616894	657129	228403	1006923	633015	274943	6150016	5463	118601	62052	203952	726018	58267	53112	14135	17361	635930	258637	9177	67670	32924	239915	96854	44394	50885	150461	119382	110012	109616	77916	80119	85116	7871	172201	12629	35313	192668	24491	70223	437107	127112	60987	27336	141570	121696	14337	153310	645422	42648	123637	75569	77856	10855
2020-09-04	26170	4069000	132700	418000	648500	4041000	188400	382000	621200	663300	231200	1009000	634400	276100	6173000	5506	119300	62560	204100	729000	58480	53220	14170	17390	638200	260400	9400	68500	33080	241800	97700	45240	51150	150800	119500	110200	110100	79100	81720	85650	7926	173500	12920	35420	192800	24560	70630	437400	127600	61380	27540	141700	122200	14580	154200	649200	42910	124300	75830	78570	10980
2020-09-05	26210	4107000	133000	419800	656900	4162000	193300	383200	626500	670500	234700	1012000	636200	277600	6201000	5570	120300	63180	204400	732100	58740	53330	14220	17430	640800	262500	9680	69300	33260	243700	98600	46160	51850	150900	119700	110700	110700	80660	83550	86320	8085	175700	13330	35640	193100	24670	71080	438000	128700	62060	27750	142300	123100	14890	155500	654200	43220	125200	76220	79370	11200
2020-09-06	26260	4123000	133300	421700	665500	4284000	197900	384300	630500	678100	238200	1014000	638100	279000	6218000	5631	121200	63660	204700	735200	58930	53450	14260	17470	643600	263700	9900	70130	33450	245400	99500	46980	52310	151900	119800	111100	111400	82250	85370	86890	8173	176900	13640	35900	193400	24790	71490	438600	129300	62710	27960	142800	123900	15190	156800	657700	43530	126000	76530	79820	11410
2020-09-07	26300	4159000	133700	423200	673800	4404000	202300	385400	634300	685500	241800	1016000	639800	280400	6237000	5691	121800	64060	205000	738300	59120	53580	14290	17510	646300	265200	10090	70910	33650	247100	100400	48060	52880	152100	120000	111500	112000	83700	87200	87310	8240	178000	13840	36170	193700	24880	71890	439200	130000	63350	28150	143400	124600	15440	158100	661200	43770	126900	76800	80070	11600
2020-09-08	26350	4201000	134000	424600	682600	4523000	206700	386500	639800	692600	245300	1019000	641600	281900	6258000	5750	122500	64480	205400	741400	59430	53700	14340	17560	649700	267500	10290	71740	33870	248600	101300	48970	53540	152600	120100	111900	112700	84980	89060	87990	8344	179600	14200	36440	194000	24970	72300	439800	130900	63970	28350	144000	125400	15670	159400	666500	44030	127800	77070	80710	11840
2020-09-09	26400	4243000	134400	425900	691700	4659000	211400	387600	644800	699800	248900	1021000	643900	283300	6279000	5813	123100	65080	205800	744600	59640	53820	14360	17610	652800	269800	10580	72690	34100	250600	102100	50130	54220	153300	120200	112300	113300	86380	91030	88780	8504	180700	14550	36700	194200	25120	72650	440400	131900	64640	28540	144700	126100	15920	160700	671000	44340	128600	77340	81330	12040
2020-09-10	26450	4285000	134700	427500	701600	4794000	216300	388700	650100	706900	252600	1023000	646200	284800	6298000	5881	123700	65720	206300	747700	59910	53950	14410	17660	655900	272200	10860	73630	34320	252300	103100	51180	54910	153900	120300	112700	114000	88130	93100	89430	8650	182600	15020	36990	194500	25280	73080	441000	132800	65320	28770	145300	126900	16270	162100	674600	44650	129500	77670	82070	12250

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-09-04 to 2020-09-12

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-09-03	340411	1973786	28372	86544	16775	12230	26452	248840	17374	488513	320656	10998	11094	6923	29206	272912	72464	69129	59051	91256	84729	3032	4163	11120	43127	26136	4041638	132527	416501	641574	3936747	184268	380746	616894	657129	228403	1006923	633015	274943	6150016	5463	118601	62052	203952	726018	58267	53112	14135	17361	635930	258637	9177	67670	32924	239915	96854	44394	50885	150461	119382	110012	109616	77916	80119	85116	7871	172201	12629	35313	192668	24491	70223	437107	127112	60987	27336	141570	121696	14337	153310	645422	42648	123637	75569	77856	10855
2020-09-04	341800	1997000	28550	86980	16820	12320	26820	251300	17490	499500	325300	11190	11440	7043	29370	274600	73270	69750	59380	92070	84810	3083	4254	11180	43480	26170	4063000	132800	418200	648600	4019000	188300	382800	620700	670400	232700	1011000	634900	276700	6178000	5497	119600	62470	204200	729300	58470	53250	14170	17380	637700	260200	9390	68770	33110	241900	98700	45470	51680	150700	119700	110400	110400	79190	81790	85580	7986	173300	12890	35420	193000	24590	70570	437900	127400	61250	27500	142100	122100	14710	153800	649300	42840	126200	75960	78190	11010
2020-09-05	343300	2029000	28730	87420	16880	12320	27330	251600	17590	508900	328100	11370	11720	7315	29470	275900	73930	70260	59700	93020	84870	3132	4334	11280	43570	26210	4095000	133100	419700	654600	4097000	191400	384800	624600	675900	235400	1015000	636900	278300	6207000	5540	120300	62910	204500	732700	58700	53410	14210	17420	640000	261600	9600	69740	33300	243500	99100	46190	52310	151100	120300	110800	111300	79790	83050	86050	8113	174400	13170	35700	193300	24690	70880	438900	128200	61800	27660	142900	123000	15030	154800	652900	43080	127300	76330	78650	11110
2020-09-06	344600	2046000	28910	87960	16960	12320	27810	251800	17700	518200	332600	11550	11940	7492	29580	277600	74540	70750	60040	93800	84910	3168	4420	11400	43760	26250	4124000	133500	421200	659700	4174000	194900	386500	628200	680000	238100	1019000	638500	280100	6233000	5590	120900	63300	204700	735500	58880	53560	14260	17460	642500	263000	9800	70660	33460	245200	100900	47060	53130	151500	120300	111200	112100	81020	84600	86530	8221	175500	13450	35980	193600	24780	71140	439500	129000	62260	27800	143600	123600	15310	155800	655800	43280	128800	76660	78880	11310
2020-09-07	345900	2060000	29070	88480	17040	12320	28220	252500	17820	527800	336600	11730	12210	7730	29670	278900	75330	71190	60400	94550	84950	3224	4495	11530	44000	26290	4149000	133800	422600	665200	4252000	197800	388500	631300	685600	240700	1024000	639800	281700	6256000	5629	121500	63720	204900	738200	59120	53730	14300	17500	644400	264000	9970	71710	33520	246900	102700	47760	53760	151800	120300	111500	112700	82260	85980	86880	8350	176300	13690	36260	193900	24850	71440	440100	129500	62670	27930	144400	124100	15620	156500	658600	43470	130100	76960	79260	11460
2020-09-08	347000	2082000	29230	88970	17100	12320	28760	252900	17940	539700	340100	11910	12550	7980	29700	280100	75780	71390	60720	95290	84980	3269	4587	11670	44200	26320	4173000	134200	423900	669400	4348000	201700	390400	634400	689400	243000	1028000	641000	283500	6277000	5669	122000	64110	205200	740600	59330	53900	14330	17530	645700	265300	10180	73150	33710	248400	103000	48570	54680	152200	120300	111800	113500	82540	87440	87230	8505	177400	13980	36640	194200	24930	71600	440600	130000	63180	28070	145100	124800	15940	157400	661200	43640	130700	77230	79540	11670
2020-09-09	347600	2093000	29360	89530	17150	12320	29240	253000	18060	547500	345900	12060	12770	8148	29770	281500	76250	71650	60970	96070	85010	3324	4663	11780	44270	26350	4197000	134500	425300	674500	4414000	204100	392700	637000	693300	245000	1031000	642100	285500	6293000	5696	122400	64430	205400	743100	59400	54070	14360	17570	646500	266300	10340	74190	33820	250000	103800	49320	55410	152500	120400	112000	114000	83270	88890	87550	8600	177800	14170	36820	194500	25000	71820	441200	130500	63530	28170	145700	125400	16150	158200	664000	43810	131000	77520	79800	11880
2020-09-10	348900	2101000	29490	90150	17210	12320	29640	253100	18170	558000	351600	12190	13070	8467	29830	282600	76840	71830	61220	96710	85040	3367	4737	11920	44310	26380	4215000	134700	426900	679000	4492000	207200	392700	639600	697300	247200	1034000	643200	286700	6310000	5730	122800	64720	205500	745500	59500	54250	14390	17600	646500	267500	10490	75270	33900	251500	105300	50000	56030	152700	120400	112200	114500	83540	90060	87860	8751	178500	14410	36890	194900	25060	71940	441700	130900	63890	28240	146500	125800	16570	158800	666200	43980	131500	77760	80090	12020
2020-09-11	349300	2109000	29550	90600	17250	12320	30000	253300	18330	565000	354600	12340	13320	8684	29880	283800	77480	72010	61490	97140	85070	3405	4806	12030	44340	26400	4235000	134900	428100	682800	4562000	209700	392700	641900	701400	249000	1037000	644400	287900	6327000	5742	123200	64980	205600	747200	59780	54410	14420	17640	647200	268400	10680	75910	33970	252800	106600	50670	56630	153000	120400	112500	114900	84820	91290	88130	8870	178900	14640	37080	195200	25120	72010	442200	130900	64150	28340	147300	126300	16850	159500	667500	44080	132100	77960	80470	12190
2020-09-12	350300	2117000	29660	91120	17290	12320	30470	253300	18480	573200	356700	12490	13590	8910	29940	285100	78250	72090	61700	97700	85080	3458	4883	12100	44430	26430	4251000	135000	429500	687600	4608000	213400	392700	644000	704900	250000	1039000	645500	288600	6345000	5763	123500	65240	205800	749300	60000	54590	14460	17670	648600	269200	10810	77100	34010	254100	107600	51330	57170	153200	120400	112500	115400	85450	92690	88370	8969	179400	14830	37250	195600	25180	72130	442700	131000	64410	28440	148100	126800	17160	159900	669600	44170	132100	78170	80750	12370

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-03

General information