COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-09-05

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
Peak date	04-07	04-02	03-26	04-15	07-24	03-28	--	03-27	04-04	09-02	04-04	04-12	08-23	--	--	04-10	03-24	03-31	08-22	04-10	08-06	06-19	03-31	--	03-26	03-27
Peak daily increment	4728	29682	808	1470	238	283		5662	316	10108	146	19307	225			1117	5643	1079	730	830	1239	1075	50		240	1137
Days from 100 to peak	36	71	18	38	126	15		25	26	183	22	44	164			27	30	25	160	28	144	105	18		19	22
Days from peak/2 to peak	24	24	13	32	125	13		14	25	172	22	24	164			21	20	19	155	23	135	99	21		18	17
Last total	344164	2012062	29087	87825	17050	12427	27752	251058	17736	498989	8261	329353	11386	11739	7892	29534	276338	73862	70387	59943	93864	84985	3122	4526	11296	43957
Last daily increment	1813	8783	358	651	96	113	503	775	189	0	36	-159	186	311	510	231	1694	654	567	486	1269	0	43	226	65	425
Last week	9697	140346	1921	2783	860	555	3385	7753	845	59703	184	30033	1252	1616	1931	774	8120	3722	3517	2175	7079	1027	257	650	653	1943
Days since peak	151	156	163	143	43	161		162	154	3	154	146	13			148	165	158	14	148	30	78	158		163	162

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-09-05

	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-ME	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
Peak date	08-03	08-04	05-03	06-06	08-23	--	--	04-01	07-31	08-25	08-12	05-09	07-16	04-14	07-19	07-26	07-16	08-05	07-04	07-20	04-24	04-20	05-01	08-14	07-17	07-30	08-27	08-27	07-17	--	--	--	--	07-19	04-24	05-06	05-22	04-06	--	--	07-24	--	07-18	--	05-01	05-01	04-08	07-23	07-19	04-01	07-03	07-28	07-24	04-09	07-16	08-27	07-27	07-16	07-10	08-07	08-01	07-23	--	04-21
Peak daily increment	489	46111	1991	7363	13550			2860	6738	7971	4224	10916	12483	4816	67032	101	1805	745	3551	9258	729	1012	190	213	11222	3329	239	1682	536					2160	3312	1017	48	1627			1273		1972		441	89	4272	286	1108	9495	1810	963	334	1624	1837	535	2139	9846	495	1410	1071	906		86
Days from 100 to peak	146	142	51	83	156			36	135	160	148	52	119	27	133	118	117	135	104	131	40	30	39	142	124	136	154	157	114					125	40	48	60	21			125		121		34	38	24	120	120	22	106	126	126	23	117	149	130	121	111	141	146	126		22
Days from peak/2 to peak	141	113	43	64	114			29	113	139	133	34	75	19	118	122	107	129	92	114	35	27	40	142	108	125	152	144	111					118	30	41	65	15			117		112		29	41	16	118	113	12	98	120	124	16	108	143	122	105	108	132	140	121		27
Last total	26278	4123000	133511	420434	650055	4113811	190665	384666	629409	676848	234570	1017131	636884	278228	6244970	5676	120327	63476	205516	735314	58966	53265	14238	17589	642772	262747	9667	69674	32924	248111	98961	45656	52464	151282	120002	111607	4632	111428	79713	83526	86478	8164	175815	13334	35664	7415	193440	24727	71102	438772	129785	63142	27856	143280	124289	14889	156126	655815	43451	125681	76541	80300	11293	3990
Last daily increment	71	31199	370	1965	8481	90632	3128	1894	6319	6703	2498	5144	1806	1673	44452	93	1038	531	836	4652	699	0	52	131	3650	2205	219	959	0	2802	1077	291	787	0	407	776	0	818	913	1877	539	145	1562	361	144	49	325	146	390	801	1341	1156	255	785	964	293	1708	4465	363	943	496	946	251	0
Last week	532	260689	3623	10460	42151	492566	18612	11096	33568	37413	17174	29661	11828	9682	248539	451	3871	3524	3855	29363	1763	874	279	525	22184	12532	1352	5094	1069	14838	5648	3895	4433	3603	1939	3816	121	4503	4678	8235	3802	824	9688	1632	1743	164	2193	764	2194	4672	7525	5126	1302	5146	5965	1567	9365	26245	1943	5952	2502	4963	1184	234
Days since peak	33	32	125	91	13			157	36	11	24	119	51	144	48	41	51	31	63	47	134	138	127	22	50	37	9	9	50					48	134	122	106	152			43		49		127	127	150	44	48	157	64	39	43	149	51	9	40	51	57	29	35	44		137

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-06 to 2020-09-12

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
2020-09-05	344164	2012062	29087	87825	17050	12427	27752	251058	17736	498989	329353	11386	11739	7892	29534	276338	73862	70387	59943	93864	84985	3122	4526	11296	43957
2020-09-06	345800	2016000	29380	88370	17120	12450	28080	251900	17850	499000	334300	11600	11990	8320	29620	276900	74100	71390	60280	95000	85190	3127	4651	11390	44370
2020-09-07	347200	2047000	29650	88490	17200	12470	28600	253400	17960	518100	338800	11810	12150	8790	29720	277600	74630	71840	60590	95700	85440	3146	4765	11480	44750
2020-09-08	348600	2066000	29930	88730	17380	12510	29370	254600	18070	525500	343100	12030	12320	9190	29820	278300	75060	72370	60900	96700	85570	3183	4876	11570	45140
2020-09-09	349900	2087000	30200	89190	17530	12610	30170	256000	18170	532600	347200	12240	12630	9720	29930	279300	75710	72970	61200	97900	85660	3231	4986	11660	45510
2020-09-10	351200	2108000	30470	89740	17670	12720	30920	257300	18270	540600	351200	12450	12980	10220	30030	280300	76250	73620	61500	99300	85840	3273	5097	11750	45880
2020-09-11	352900	2136000	30740	90280	17850	12780	31990	258700	18380	551000	355300	12660	13320	10830	30140	281600	76880	74290	61800	100600	85980	3320	5210	11840	46250
2020-09-12	354500	2143000	31020	90900	17920	12840	32670	259400	18480	551000	359400	12880	13640	11280	30240	283100	77470	74900	62100	101800	86010	3359	5325	11920	46620

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-06 to 2020-09-12

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-09-05	26278	4123000	133511	420434	650055	4113811	190665	384666	629409	676848	234570	1017131	636884	278228	6244970	5676	120327	63476	205516	735314	58966	53265	14238	17589	642772	262747	9667	69674	32924	248111	98961	45656	52464	151282	120002	111607	111428	79713	83526	86478	8164	175815	13334	35664	193440	24727	71102	438772	129785	63142	27856	143280	124289	14889	156126	655815	43451	125681	76541	80300	11293	3990
2020-09-06	26380	4148000	133900	422200	654700	4226000	193700	386400	633400	689300	238000	1022000	641800	279700	6292000	5723	121100	63980	205900	738900	59180	53390	14290	17630	648500	265300	9930	70790	33140	252700	100800	45850	53380	152600	120000	112200	112100	80840	83740	87130	8359	176900	13720	35860	193800	24850	71540	439400	130100	63460	28160	143400	125200	15310	157500	660300	43720	126600	76990	80490	11530	4026
2020-09-07	26490	4182000	134300	423800	659600	4335000	197900	388200	636800	696800	241400	1027000	643200	281200	6325000	5767	121900	64290	206000	742500	59360	53510	14330	17670	651200	266700	10080	71350	33370	257600	102600	46700	54420	152800	120000	112700	112800	81730	84770	87780	8491	178100	13910	36070	194100	24970	71960	440100	131000	64020	28300	144000	126000	15510	158800	664500	43930	127500	77420	80810	11790	4061
2020-09-08	26580	4225000	134800	425100	664200	4448000	202100	389900	642600	701500	244700	1031000	644000	282700	6363000	5801	122600	64600	206600	746200	59680	53630	14380	17710	657700	268700	10260	72010	33600	262600	104200	47030	55470	153300	120000	113200	113500	82360	85790	88440	8646	179900	14210	36360	194400	25090	72390	440700	132200	64710	28510	144700	126900	15730	160200	668800	44170	128400	77850	81580	12110	4095
2020-09-09	26680	4269000	135200	426500	669100	4581000	206600	391600	647500	706400	248000	1036000	646000	284100	6401000	5860	123300	65180	207000	749800	59890	53740	14420	17750	661200	270700	10570	72830	33840	267800	105900	47860	56570	154100	120000	113800	114100	83150	87060	89090	8890	180900	14540	36690	194700	25210	72810	441300	133300	65400	28640	145500	127700	15960	161500	672900	44480	129300	78270	82240	12370	4129
2020-09-10	26780	4311000	135600	428200	674000	4709000	212200	393300	653300	709000	251400	1040000	648300	285600	6435000	5951	124000	65960	207900	753500	60180	53860	14470	17790	665100	273100	10820	73640	34080	273100	107900	48320	57700	154800	120000	114300	114800	84200	88270	89740	9101	182600	14950	37090	195000	25330	73230	442000	134600	66190	28880	146400	128600	16270	162900	677000	44800	130200	78690	82990	12690	4162
2020-09-11	26880	4356000	136000	430000	678900	4841000	217400	395000	658900	720100	254800	1045000	650100	287000	6480000	6067	124700	66820	208500	757100	60260	53970	14510	17830	669200	274900	11090	74670	34320	278600	109900	49240	58850	155500	120000	114800	115500	85230	89760	90390	9308	184500	15370	37330	195300	25450	73650	442600	135800	67150	29120	147200	129400	16540	164200	681100	45220	131100	79120	84230	13010	4196
2020-09-12	26980	4387000	136500	431800	683800	4990000	222600	396700	664800	726400	258200	1049000	652100	288500	6522000	6158	125500	67350	209200	760800	60810	54090	14560	17870	672500	277100	11340	75550	34560	284100	112000	49590	60020	155500	120000	115300	116200	86050	91410	91050	9492	186100	15860	37490	195600	25560	74070	443200	137000	68170	29360	148000	130300	16870	165600	685300	45550	132000	79540	85100	13320	4231

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-06 to 2020-09-12

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
2020-09-05	344164	2012062	29087	87825	17050	12427	27752	251058	17736	498989	329353	11386	11739	7892	29534	276338	73862	70387	59943	93864	84985	3122	4526	11296	43957
2020-09-06	345000	2017000	29240	88080	17100	12430	28000	251400	17770	501400	332800	11580	12000	8021	29560	276800	74090	70930	60120	94700	84990	3141	4561	11360	44110
2020-09-07	346000	2034000	29480	88330	17200	12470	28470	252200	17830	516300	337000	11780	12250	8212	29640	277300	74560	71460	60370	95600	85130	3166	4627	11430	44340
2020-09-08	347200	2045000	29720	88630	17360	12520	29120	252800	17920	524300	341200	11980	12510	8449	29750	277700	74980	72030	60660	96700	85210	3195	4713	11510	44590
2020-09-09	348400	2056000	29990	89010	17490	12550	29840	253500	18010	532600	345100	12200	12840	8783	29850	278300	75540	72640	60950	97900	85260	3231	4816	11600	44840
2020-09-10	349500	2068000	30290	89490	17620	12740	30490	254200	18090	541100	349400	12430	13180	9073	29950	279000	76040	73310	61240	99100	85400	3266	4934	11670	45080
2020-09-11	350800	2083000	30560	89960	17780	12770	31310	255000	18180	550300	354400	12660	13540	9419	30050	279600	76540	74040	61530	100300	85510	3303	5052	11740	45330
2020-09-12	352000	2089000	30850	90420	17870	12850	31820	255400	18280	554700	358200	12870	13880	9713	30160	280200	77000	74800	61810	101500	85550	3332	5171	11820	45560

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-06 to 2020-09-12

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-09-05	26278	4123000	133511	420434	650055	4113811	190665	384666	629409	676848	234570	1017131	636884	278228	6244970	5676	120327	63476	205516	735314	58966	53265	14238	17589	642772	262747	9667	69674	32924	248111	98961	45656	52464	151282	120002	111607	111428	79713	83526	86478	8164	175815	13334	35664	193440	24727	71102	438772	129785	63142	27856	143280	124289	14889	156126	655815	43451	125681	76541	80300	11293	3990
2020-09-06	26320	4134000	133800	421900	655400	4220000	194300	385700	632200	683500	237400	1019000	638400	279500	6264000	5706	121000	63860	205700	737700	59100	53350	14270	17610	644800	263700	9870	70470	33050	252100	100400	46010	53340	152300	120100	111800	111900	80260	83850	86970	8287	176900	13610	35900	193600	24830	71420	439100	130100	63380	28020	143500	124800	15200	157200	657900	43640	126400	76780	80380	11440	4017
2020-09-07	26360	4169000	134100	423500	663700	4337000	198600	386800	636000	690600	240600	1022000	640100	281000	6285000	5746	121700	64270	205800	740500	59240	53450	14310	17650	647300	265200	10050	71280	33280	256900	102200	46740	54380	152600	120200	112100	112500	81010	84890	87450	8422	178000	13840	36170	193900	24910	71790	439700	130800	63980	28190	144100	125400	15430	158500	660900	43890	127300	77020	80530	11650	4050
2020-09-08	26400	4212000	134500	424800	672100	4461000	203000	387900	641400	696500	243800	1024000	641400	282400	6308000	5796	122400	64660	206200	743300	59500	53560	14350	17680	650200	267300	10240	72120	33510	261800	104000	47220	55470	153200	120300	112500	113100	81700	86020	88080	8583	179800	14150	36450	194200	25000	72160	440400	131800	64690	28390	144700	126200	15650	159800	665300	44170	128200	77290	81200	11920	4082
2020-09-09	26450	4257000	134800	426200	680700	4597000	207700	389000	646300	702600	247000	1026000	643300	283900	6330000	5858	123000	65240	206600	746000	59700	53670	14380	17730	652700	269200	10530	72990	33740	267000	105900	47970	56600	154000	120400	112900	113800	82440	87190	88780	8803	181000	14500	36740	194500	25130	72490	441000	132800	65410	28550	145500	127000	15890	161200	669300	44480	129100	77580	81830	12160	4123
2020-09-10	26490	4297000	135200	427800	690400	4731000	212600	390100	651500	707800	250200	1029000	645500	285400	6351000	5928	123500	65900	207200	748800	59940	53780	14420	17770	655300	271600	10780	73910	33970	272200	107800	48530	57750	154700	120400	113400	114500	83190	88360	89440	8987	182700	14950	37040	194800	25290	72880	441600	133700	66140	28770	146100	127900	16240	162600	672400	44790	130000	77910	82540	12390	4156
2020-09-11	26540	4337000	135500	429600	699300	4870000	217800	391100	656800	716900	253400	1031000	647700	286800	6379000	6004	124300	66610	207600	751400	60110	53890	14460	17820	657900	273700	11050	74870	34210	277600	109900	49260	58900	155200	120500	113900	115100	84000	89580	90120	9184	184400	15380	37320	195000	25410	73330	442200	134700	66910	29000	146800	128800	16550	163900	677000	45130	130900	78240	83540	12640	4196
2020-09-12	26580	4374000	135800	431300	708600	5016000	223000	392200	662300	724000	256700	1033000	649900	288300	6404000	6075	125300	67210	208200	754100	60500	54010	14510	17870	660500	275900	11340	75800	34450	283100	111900	49850	60130	155400	120700	114300	115700	84800	90840	90830	9407	186600	15870	37590	195300	25510	73730	442800	135700	67690	29230	147500	129700	16910	165300	681300	45450	131700	78590	84290	12880	4227

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-09-06 to 2020-09-14

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-09-05	344164	2012062	29087	87825	17050	12427	27752	251058	17736	498989	329353	11386	11739	7892	29534	276338	73862	70387	59943	93864	84985	3122	4526	11296	43957	26278	4123000	133511	420434	650055	4113811	190665	384666	629409	676848	234570	1017131	636884	278228	6244970	5676	120327	63476	205516	735314	58966	53265	14238	17589	642772	262747	9667	69674	32924	248111	98961	45656	52464	151282	120002	111607	111428	79713	83526	86478	8164	175815	13334	35664	193440	24727	71102	438772	129785	63142	27856	143280	124289	14889	156126	655815	43451	125681	76541	80300	11293	3990
2020-09-06	345600	2031000	29170	88240	17140	12580	28160	252100	17800	510300	333000	11590	11990	8060	29570	277300	74390	71040	60190	94500	85110	3142	4544	11400	44170	26350	4145000	134000	421800	660000	4176000	193200	386400	632000	685400	237600	1021000	638900	279800	6268000	5681	120900	63890	205500	738100	59120	53430	14290	17590	644400	264500	9860	70500	33380	250200	99700	46330	53080	152200	120000	111900	112000	80420	83900	86990	8236	177000	13560	35960	193700	24820	71430	439300	130200	63140	28000	143900	124600	15170	156800	658300	43590	126400	76920	80760	11390	4048
2020-09-07	347500	2051000	29340	88820	17240	12640	28710	252600	17940	520200	339800	11770	12320	8430	29680	278700	75130	71790	60600	95500	85170	3169	4653	11530	44330	26420	4176000	134300	423500	669800	4260000	197400	387800	636500	699700	240300	1025000	640800	281400	6303000	5742	121500	64290	205700	741000	59370	53590	14350	17620	646600	266000	10050	71600	33560	254800	101700	47320	54230	152600	120000	112500	112800	81910	85640	87440	8411	178300	13900	36220	194000	24910	71720	439900	131000	63630	28150	144600	125300	15480	157600	661200	43850	127300	77260	81670	11600	4085
2020-09-08	349500	2066000	29500	89280	17330	12800	29210	253400	18080	527100	346300	11960	12580	8830	29800	279900	75800	72150	61030	96300	85230	3194	4761	11650	44540	26480	4206000	134600	424900	678400	4338000	200400	389500	640400	706100	242500	1029000	642200	283000	6331000	5785	121900	64700	206100	743200	59570	53770	14400	17680	648000	267400	10230	72280	33700	258000	102500	47900	54850	153000	120000	113100	113300	82290	86900	87880	8547	179400	14160	36430	194400	25000	72020	440800	131600	64120	28290	145500	126000	15780	158500	663500	44070	128000	77610	82800	11760	4129
2020-09-09	351800	2084000	29650	89650	17410	12950	29670	253500	18190	536200	355200	12110	12840	9200	29930	281400	76310	72670	61460	97200	85270	3210	4857	11790	44650	26530	4228000	135000	426300	684100	4398000	203200	390800	643900	712300	244700	1033000	643600	284600	6357000	5819	122300	65130	206400	745400	59800	53900	14440	17720	649400	268800	10430	73270	33870	260300	103500	48660	55700	153500	120000	113600	113800	82780	88220	88340	8672	180400	14460	36690	194700	25070	72220	441500	132200	64570	28410	146200	126600	16040	159200	666400	44280	128800	77900	83140	11950	4170
2020-09-10	353800	2102000	29780	90120	17470	12970	30010	254000	18300	542300	362200	12240	13050	9470	30050	283000	76800	73100	61850	97900	85330	3227	4928	11910	44770	26570	4253000	135400	427300	688100	4461000	205800	392300	647500	719800	247100	1037000	644800	286300	6377000	5863	122600	65510	206700	747600	60090	54070	14490	17770	650700	269900	10610	74250	34060	262400	104300	49150	56260	153900	120000	114100	114400	82780	89450	88680	8792	181300	14690	36910	195000	25140	72430	442000	132600	64970	28530	147000	127200	16320	160000	668600	44460	129500	78190	83350	12070	4209
2020-09-11	355200	2111000	29890	90650	17520	13030	30530	254400	18420	550900	369100	12410	13310	9670	30160	284500	77130	73680	62240	98600	85370	3245	5004	12050	44890	26620	4274000	135700	428700	693300	4532000	208700	393900	650200	723800	248900	1041000	646000	287800	6394000	5895	122900	65890	206800	748800	60330	54220	14540	17820	651400	271100	10760	74880	34230	264400	105100	49860	57110	154300	120000	114700	115200	83150	90660	89030	8914	182200	14980	37160	195200	25190	72570	442600	133200	65270	28630	147500	127500	16580	160400	670000	44640	130200	78470	83770	12250	4254
2020-09-12	358300	2121000	30010	91150	17570	13030	30900	254700	18490	556800	376600	12510	13510	9910	30240	285600	77580	73940	62600	99200	85420	3268	5085	12150	45010	26660	4288000	135800	429800	696600	4588000	210900	395700	652800	734800	250400	1044000	646900	289400	6414000	5928	123100	66240	206900	750000	60570	54370	14570	17880	652100	272000	10910	75460	34360	264400	105100	50370	57700	154600	120000	115000	115600	83470	91820	89350	9026	182900	15200	37380	195600	25260	72780	443300	133600	65560	28720	148000	127800	16780	160900	672000	44770	130800	78700	83960	12350	4295
2020-09-13	360700	2130000	30130	91720	17630	13030	31380	255000	18580	565300	383000	12630	13760	10090	30310	287400	77830	74120	63010	99700	85430	3277	5165	12260	45100	26690	4307000	135900	430900	700600	4655000	213700	396800	655200	745100	251900	1047000	647800	290900	6426000	5955	123200	66520	207000	751200	60870	54470	14600	17910	653000	273100	11060	76050	34500	264400	105100	51070	58460	154900	120000	115500	116100	83500	93090	89670	9150	183400	15460	37510	195900	25320	72940	443700	133800	65780	28820	148600	128000	17010	161300	674100	44890	131400	78920	84250	12530	4342
2020-09-14	362700	2133000	30260	92260	17670	13030	31760	255200	18610	572000	390700	12730	13980	10120	30370	288800	78220	74620	63400	100200	85470	3280	5244	12300	45110	26720	4318000	135900	432100	702500	4710000	216800	397200	656900	754100	253200	1050000	648400	292000	6439000	5977	123300	66760	207100	751200	61150	54560	14640	17960	653600	273900	11200	76630	34640	264400	105100	51600	59170	155100	120000	115600	116400	84110	94310	89940	9273	184000	15720	37630	196100	25370	73060	444300	133900	65990	28910	148900	128100	17220	161700	675400	44980	131900	79160	84290	12680	4393

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-05

General information