COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-09-12

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
Peak date	04-07	04-02	03-26	04-15	07-24	03-28	--	03-27	--	--	04-04	04-12	--	--	--	04-10	03-24	--	08-15	04-10	--	06-19	--	--	03-26	03-27
Peak daily increment	4728	29683	808	1470	238	283		5662			146	19306				1117	5643		727	830		1075			240	1137
Days from 100 to peak	36	71	18	38	126	15		25			22	44				27	30		153	28		105			19	22
Days from peak/2 to peak	24	24	13	32	125	13		14			22	24				21	20		148	23		99			18	17
Last total	365174	2205176	32696	92478	17891	13110	35401	260817	19557	566326	8557	381907	13036	13368	11825	30730	286297	81012	73650	63310	102386	86505	3603	5453	12079	46704
Last daily increment	3497	12181	869	941	92	147	1541	1082	341	0	45	0	302	261	916	159	1501	1231	603	497	1311	0	106	201	76	465
Last week	18022	185803	3425	4111	802	561	7245	9089	1674	67337	266	52661	1512	1404	3438	1058	8663	6225	2826	3052	7372	1520	438	839	691	2303
Days since peak	158	163	170	150	50	168		169			161	153				155	172		28	155		85			170	169

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-09-12

	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-ME	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
Peak date	08-02	08-04	05-03	06-06	09-09	--	--	04-01	07-31	08-13	08-12	05-09	07-16	04-14	07-19	07-26	07-16	--	07-04	07-20	04-24	04-20	05-01	04-26	07-17	07-30	08-26	08-27	--	09-04	--	09-02	--	07-19	04-24	05-06	05-22	04-06	--	--	07-24	09-04	07-18	--	05-01	05-01	04-08	07-23	07-19	04-01	07-03	07-28	07-24	04-09	07-16	08-27	07-27	07-16	07-10	08-07	08-01	--	--	04-21
Peak daily increment	483	45354	1991	7363	12131			2860	6738	8581	4357	10917	12483	4816	67032	101	1805		3552	9259	729	1012	190	197	11222	3329	238	1672		3873		595		2160	3312	1017	48	1627			1273	127	1972		441	89	4272	286	1108	9495	1810	963	334	1624	1837	460	2139	9846	495	1435	1071			86
Days from 100 to peak	145	140	51	83	172			36	135	147	148	52	120	27	133	118	117		104	131	40	30	39	32	123	136	152	157		173		162		125	40	48	59	21			125	161	121		34	38	24	120	120	22	106	126	126	23	117	149	130	121	111	141	146			22
Days from peak/2 to peak	140	113	43	64	133			29	113	126	132	34	75	19	118	122	107		92	114	35	27	40	32	108	125	151	144		162		157		118	30	41	65	15			117	163	112		29	41	16	118	113	12	98	120	124	16	108	144	122	105	108	132	140			27
Last total	26651	4315687	138164	432666	708964	4754356	214746	399940	663973	716670	257863	1053663	648214	289635	6485214	6206	124823	68166	208128	758933	60876	54219	14493	18262	660538	273852	10562	74171	35166	259856	104561	48658	56415	155984	122180	115533	4829	117115	83429	92202	89620	8925	183738	15151	37963	7651	196031	25336	73220	443640	136568	68614	29156	148635	129978	16437	165690	677716	45960	132868	79187	87603	12528	4297
Last daily increment	44	33523	488	2131	6876	94372	3806	2139	5674	6603	4899	5406	1816	1509	41471	103	726	1542	605	4028	414	0	0	164	3184	2036	129	792	217	2118	1056	288	711	0	439	809	38	793	909	1960	445	140	1452	467	269	32	456	98	414	849	1242	989	291	932	932	320	1053	2682	458	1297	463	1353	351	33
Last week	330	178166	4274	10156	42443	549743	20637	13282	29950	32968	20498	31435	9697	9829	208849	447	4008	4016	2362	20077	1625	954	214	553	15210	9683	733	3964	2242	10312	4757	2828	3641	3308	1814	3414	147	5687	3022	7430	2732	661	6837	1520	2222	208	2281	550	1610	4139	6010	5048	1112	4811	5026	1328	7896	19514	2169	5991	2265	6410	1110	265
Days since peak	41	39	132	98	3			164	43	30	31	126	58	151	55	48	58		70	54	141	145	134	139	57	44	17	16		8		10		55	141	129	113	159			50	8	56		134	134	157	51	55	164	71	46	50	156	58	16	47	58	64	36	42			144

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-13 to 2020-09-19

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
2020-09-12	365174	2205176	32696	92478	17891	13110	35401	260817	19557	566326	8557	381907	13036	13368	11825	30730	286297	81012	73650	63310	102386	86505	3603	5453	12079	46704
2020-09-13	368300	2205000	33320	92480	17960	13200	36300	261100	20130	582300	8588	387800	13410	13710	12480	30870	287300	81930	74200	63830	103400	86510	3657	5618	12210	47060
2020-09-14	371200	2247000	33910	92800	18020	13290	37530	262900	20690	595300	8617	393400	13650	13830	13090	31000	288400	82890	74740	64330	104200	86820	3723	5782	12320	47390
2020-09-15	373900	2270000	34490	93190	18200	13370	39320	264200	21260	608300	8647	399000	13920	14020	13730	31130	289600	83910	75280	64820	105300	86980	3801	5950	12440	47730
2020-09-16	376600	2294000	35040	93700	18330	13450	40790	265500	21850	621900	8676	404300	14200	14340	14350	31250	290900	84880	75820	65290	106500	87120	3906	6119	12550	48050
2020-09-17	379600	2320000	35600	94430	18480	13540	42640	267000	22450	635900	8705	409700	14590	14640	14990	31380	292500	85710	76350	65770	107900	87360	3996	6294	12660	48370
2020-09-18	382900	2353000	36170	95280	18660	13620	44680	268500	23060	650100	8734	415100	14900	14890	15640	31500	294100	86880	76890	66240	109200	87610	4120	6474	12770	48690
2020-09-19	386100	2362000	36730	96050	18740	13700	46210	269400	23700	664700	8762	420600	15180	15180	16320	31630	295500	87930	77430	66710	110500	87620	4224	6659	12880	49010

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-13 to 2020-09-19

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-09-12	26651	4315687	138164	432666	708964	4754356	214746	399940	663973	716670	257863	1053663	648214	289635	6485214	6206	124823	68166	208128	758933	60876	54219	14493	18262	660538	273852	10562	74171	35166	259856	104561	48658	56415	155984	122180	115533	117115	83429	92202	89620	8925	183738	15151	37963	7651	196031	25336	73220	443640	136568	68614	29156	148635	129978	16437	165690	677716	45960	132868	79187	87603	12528	4297
2020-09-13	26720	4363000	138700	434600	716200	4817000	219700	401900	669400	723000	261000	1059000	651300	291200	6535000	6264	125500	69280	208800	762900	61190	54370	14540	18350	663400	276600	10740	75630	35360	261800	106400	49320	56980	157400	122500	116100	117100	84770	94300	90160	9069	186000	15360	38000	7656	196400	25450	73550	444300	137600	69100	29440	149100	130800	16690	167400	683900	46160	133900	79590	89400	12720	4334
2020-09-14	26790	4378000	139200	436300	723000	4894000	224800	403800	672600	729200	264000	1064000	652300	292700	6559000	6300	126200	69960	208900	766700	61380	54490	14590	18430	666200	277300	10920	76010	35550	263200	108400	49900	57380	157700	122800	116700	118100	85350	96400	90680	9129	187000	15520	38150	7662	196700	25550	73880	445000	138700	69690	29570	149800	131400	16870	168400	684700	46460	134800	79980	90900	12910	4369
2020-09-15	26860	4399000	139700	437500	729800	4981000	230000	405700	677800	735200	267200	1069000	653400	294200	6586000	6333	126800	70620	209100	770500	61620	54620	14630	18510	669000	278800	11100	76580	35740	264600	110300	50380	57810	158000	122900	117200	118700	85680	98500	91220	9204	187900	15640	38580	7669	197000	25660	74200	445700	139700	70460	29730	150400	131900	17000	169200	688000	46740	135800	80370	92600	13130	4404
2020-09-16	26930	4437000	140200	438900	736300	5070000	235400	407600	682200	741200	270200	1073000	655600	295700	6620000	6394	127500	71430	209500	774300	61840	54740	14670	18580	671700	280600	11280	77290	35930	266200	112300	50940	58470	159200	123200	117700	119500	86070	100700	91740	9319	188800	15880	38980	7675	197300	25760	74510	446300	140700	71220	29840	151200	132300	17190	170200	692400	47020	136700	80750	94500	13350	4439
2020-09-17	27010	4475000	140700	440400	742900	5158000	240900	409500	687300	747100	273300	1078000	657500	297200	6655000	6501	128200	72310	210100	778100	62100	54860	14710	18660	674500	282700	11460	78350	36120	267800	114400	51330	59250	159700	123500	118300	120400	86670	103000	92270	9491	190200	16220	39390	7681	197700	25860	74830	447000	141800	72010	30040	151900	132900	17460	172500	694600	47310	137700	81130	96600	13600	4474
2020-09-18	27080	4514000	141200	442200	749600	5251000	246600	411400	692900	753000	276400	1083000	659200	298700	6697000	6601	128800	73530	210600	781900	62320	54980	14750	18730	677200	284200	11650	79270	36310	269700	116500	51960	60100	160400	123900	118800	121500	87170	105300	92790	9621	191700	16520	39790	7687	198000	25970	75140	447600	142800	72940	30240	152800	135000	17700	174000	699300	47780	138600	81510	98900	13820	4509
2020-09-19	27150	4545000	141700	444200	756200	5341000	252400	413300	698400	759000	279500	1088000	661100	300100	6735000	6696	129500	74510	211200	785700	62770	55100	14790	18810	679900	286200	11830	79970	36500	271700	118700	52250	60800	160400	124300	119400	122100	87980	107700	93320	9763	193200	16950	39980	7694	198300	26070	75460	448200	143800	73890	30500	153600	136000	18010	175100	702500	48200	139500	81890	101000	14220	4544

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-13 to 2020-09-19

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
2020-09-12	365174	2205176	32696	92478	17891	13110	35401	260817	19557	566326	8557	381907	13036	13368	11825	30730	286297	81012	73650	63310	102386	86505	3603	5453	12079	46704
2020-09-13	366300	2207000	32810	92570	17940	13180	35610	261000	19840	576100	8577	386500	13240	13590	12150	30800	286800	81410	73890	63630	103200	86510	3630	5536	12160	46850
2020-09-14	368400	2228000	33050	92790	18010	13270	36180	261800	20190	592100	8596	394600	13490	13800	12690	30900	287300	82170	74260	64010	104200	86630	3674	5668	12260	47080
2020-09-15	370500	2242000	33390	93090	18160	13330	37210	262500	20540	605200	8613	400600	13750	14020	13170	31030	287800	83010	74720	64400	105300	86720	3741	5812	12350	47330
2020-09-16	372700	2257000	33760	93510	18290	13430	38350	263200	20900	618700	8630	407000	14060	14320	13660	31160	288500	83900	75140	64790	106500	86800	3820	5968	12450	47580
2020-09-17	374900	2270000	34210	94060	18420	13490	39740	263900	21270	632300	8647	413600	14460	14600	14140	31290	289200	84640	75710	65170	107700	86920	3895	6131	12540	47830
2020-09-18	377200	2286000	34600	94610	18580	13570	40920	264600	21640	647500	8664	421000	14820	14890	14820	31420	289800	85470	76350	65550	109000	87030	3978	6292	12630	48070
2020-09-19	379500	2291000	35010	95130	18660	13680	41720	265000	22030	660300	8681	425800	15130	15190	15530	31550	290500	86330	76960	65960	110200	87050	4051	6474	12720	48310

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-13 to 2020-09-19

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-09-12	26651	4315687	138164	432666	708964	4754356	214746	399940	663973	716670	257863	1053663	648214	289635	6485214	6206	124823	68166	208128	758933	60876	54219	14493	18262	660538	273852	10562	74171	35166	259856	104561	48658	56415	155984	122180	115533	117115	83429	92202	89620	8925	183738	15151	37963	7651	196031	25336	73220	443640	136568	68614	29156	148635	129978	16437	165690	677716	45960	132868	79187	87603	12528	4297
2020-09-13	26680	4330000	138500	434400	715300	4821000	219200	401100	668100	720000	258700	1056000	649100	291200	6504000	6243	125300	68400	208300	759900	61120	54300	14520	18290	662400	274700	10650	74790	35360	261100	106000	48900	56710	157200	122300	115900	117200	84030	93900	89860	9007	184600	15300	38050	7662	196200	25410	73490	444000	137300	69090	29290	149000	130500	16620	166900	679800	46080	133400	79360	89010	12720	4314
2020-09-14	26720	4347000	138900	436100	722700	4901000	224200	402400	671900	724000	260600	1059000	650100	292700	6517000	6293	125900	68590	208600	761300	61310	54420	14550	18340	664800	275600	10770	75350	35670	262600	107800	49430	57210	157500	122400	116400	117800	84650	95800	90190	9071	185400	15510	38230	7680	196500	25450	73780	444700	138000	69830	29440	149700	131000	16790	168000	681000	46380	134300	79580	90300	12940	4344
2020-09-15	26750	4369000	139300	437300	730600	4988000	229400	403600	676900	729000	263000	1061000	651300	294300	6531000	6349	126500	68970	208900	763000	61550	54530	14590	18410	667400	277100	10890	75960	35990	264100	109500	49910	57730	157900	122600	116800	118500	85160	97700	90600	9155	186300	15720	38550	7701	196800	25500	74050	445300	138700	70590	29600	150400	131500	16960	169000	684300	46690	135200	79740	91860	13160	4381
2020-09-16	26790	4404000	139700	438700	739100	5081000	234600	404900	681500	733900	265700	1064000	653000	295900	6549000	6417	127100	69520	209300	764700	61750	54650	14610	18470	669900	278800	11040	76670	36300	265800	111300	50420	58360	159000	122700	117200	119200	85700	99800	91040	9272	187200	15980	38900	7723	197100	25600	74300	446000	139500	71360	29740	151100	132000	17140	170200	688400	46990	136100	79970	93420	13410	4418
2020-09-17	26830	4446000	140100	440300	748100	5171000	240400	406100	686600	738800	268300	1066000	654500	297400	6569000	6499	127700	70140	209800	767300	62010	54770	14640	18550	672800	280800	11240	77560	36620	267500	113200	50890	59090	159500	123000	117700	120000	86390	101900	91590	9447	188800	16300	39250	7746	197400	25770	74590	446600	140700	72140	29940	151800	132800	17430	172100	691000	47300	137000	80270	95130	13690	4452
2020-09-18	26860	4489000	140500	442200	756400	5261000	246400	407300	692100	743900	271000	1069000	655900	299000	6596000	6584	128300	70970	210300	769600	62160	54880	14690	18620	675500	282700	11470	78500	36920	269600	115200	51540	59840	160200	123100	118200	120800	87130	104200	92200	9594	190600	16590	39550	7773	197700	25870	74920	447300	141800	72950	30150	152700	134300	17710	173400	695900	47680	137800	80530	96970	13940	4491
2020-09-19	26900	4525000	140900	444000	765000	5353000	252300	408500	697800	748800	273700	1071000	657300	300600	6620000	6662	129100	71600	210800	772100	62630	55000	14720	18700	678100	284700	11690	79340	37240	271600	117200	52020	60560	160300	123300	118800	121400	87980	106600	92730	9767	192400	16920	39780	7799	198100	25960	75240	447900	142900	73760	30380	153400	135300	18020	174800	699400	48020	138700	80830	98700	14300	4523

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-09-13 to 2020-09-21

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-09-12	365174	2205176	32696	92478	17891	13110	35401	260817	19557	566326	8557	381907	13036	13368	11825	30730	286297	81012	73650	63310	102386	86505	3603	5453	12079	46704	26651	4315687	138164	432666	708964	4754356	214746	399940	663973	716670	257863	1053663	648214	289635	6485214	6206	124823	68166	208128	758933	60876	54219	14493	18262	660538	273852	10562	74171	35166	259856	104561	48658	56415	155984	122180	115533	117115	83429	92202	89620	8925	183738	15151	37963	7651	196031	25336	73220	443640	136568	68614	29156	148635	129978	16437	165690	677716	45960	132868	79187	87603	12528	4297
2020-09-13	368100	2225000	33300	92750	17990	13180	35990	262000	19840	582800	8561	390800	13230	13660	12300	30880	287400	82260	74120	63780	104100	86690	3651	5543	12170	47060	26710	4336000	138300	434300	723900	4851000	218500	401500	666700	730500	257900	1058000	649200	292100	6504000	6223	125400	69030	208400	762400	61170	54430	14560	18290	662700	275100	10700	74780	35980	263700	106800	49280	57470	156800	122200	116100	118200	85220	93900	90070	9110	185000	15400	38230	7680	196500	25420	73460	444300	137300	68790	29290	149600	130400	16590	166600	680800	46070	133400	79420	89160	12700	4332
2020-09-14	371600	2246000	34300	93600	18080	13300	36930	263100	20100	593900	8577	399900	13390	13880	13050	31070	288500	83120	74560	64090	105300	86900	3730	5696	12240	47520	26780	4361000	138900	435900	732100	4939000	222300	403500	669600	739500	260200	1062000	650300	293800	6532000	6290	125900	69800	208700	765200	61490	54570	14600	18420	664800	276200	10800	75410	36330	265500	107600	49800	58190	157200	122600	116600	119600	86190	95500	90470	9260	186000	15650	38530	7714	196900	25490	73710	445100	137900	69430	29430	150500	131100	16730	167700	683900	46370	134200	79700	90260	12940	4372
2020-09-15	375700	2266000	35250	94130	18170	13390	37690	264200	20350	604700	8592	409100	13630	14110	13600	31190	289600	84010	74990	64270	106800	87050	3780	5816	12320	47930	26820	4382000	139600	437300	742400	5029000	225700	405200	672100	748600	262100	1067000	651300	295300	6555000	6339	126300	70790	209000	768100	61820	54690	14640	18500	667000	277200	10910	75980	36750	266500	109000	50290	58910	157700	122900	117200	120100	87510	97100	90730	9410	186900	15960	38880	7746	197400	25570	73900	445700	138400	69770	29540	151400	131800	16870	168500	686600	46600	134800	79950	91750	13170	4408
2020-09-16	379300	2284000	36230	94720	18230	13500	38760	265300	20610	614600	8612	419000	13840	14330	13960	31310	290600	84720	75430	64430	108300	87270	3840	5950	12380	48380	26870	4400000	140200	438800	753900	5120000	229100	406700	674800	759000	264200	1072000	652300	297100	6577000	6386	126600	71570	209200	770400	62220	54830	14670	18580	668600	278200	11010	76530	37090	268900	111100	50650	59940	158100	123200	117600	120500	88670	98600	91050	9550	187700	16260	39170	7779	197700	25610	74120	446300	138800	70190	29650	152300	132300	17010	169400	688900	46790	135500	80160	93180	13390	4442
2020-09-17	382600	2314000	37260	95140	18310	13580	40060	266200	20870	626000	8627	428700	14080	14430	14840	31510	291500	84950	75790	64650	110000	87460	3912	6080	12440	48740	26910	4420000	140600	440200	755100	5227000	233600	407700	677400	768800	266000	1074000	653100	299000	6594000	6428	127000	71760	209500	772700	62480	54970	14720	18680	670100	279200	11090	76990	37090	269900	111400	51150	60880	158500	123700	118000	121000	89460	100400	91310	9730	188500	16570	39540	7814	198000	25660	74300	447000	138800	70580	29750	153200	132700	17140	170200	691300	46970	136100	80390	94250	13640	4475
2020-09-18	386200	2336000	38250	95700	18360	13670	40770	267100	20920	638100	8641	437000	14110	14570	15340	31670	292400	85860	76120	64750	111300	87640	3969	6171	12490	49080	26950	4437000	141200	441300	761200	5298000	236100	408900	679100	780700	267400	1078000	653900	299800	6607000	6460	127300	71880	209600	774300	62750	55100	14750	18770	671300	280000	11190	77300	37090	272100	111700	51550	61680	158800	124000	118400	121400	89540	102000	91570	9850	189200	16870	39970	7851	198300	25710	74480	447600	139000	70820	29840	153600	133000	17260	170700	693200	47040	136700	80600	95960	13860	4520
2020-09-19	390500	2352000	39280	95950	18420	13710	41670	267900	21170	650200	8659	445000	14270	14730	16040	31720	293200	85860	76450	64900	112900	87790	4028	6328	12530	49390	27000	4453000	141700	442600	768800	5373000	239400	410000	680900	788000	268700	1080000	654600	300700	6622000	6492	127500	72320	209800	775800	63030	55240	14790	18830	672100	281000	11250	77630	37090	272600	111800	51890	62310	159100	124600	118700	121700	89540	103300	91870	9980	189900	17160	40420	7887	198600	25760	74660	448000	139300	70890	29930	154000	133400	17360	171400	695500	47160	137200	80770	97220	14070	4560
2020-09-20	393900	2368000	40080	96330	18480	13770	42450	268500	21490	661500	8671	455100	14540	14920	16560	31790	293900	86750	76710	65090	114200	87930	4088	6395	12580	49710	27040	4466000	142000	443700	777200	5459000	242600	411000	682300	799900	270000	1083000	655100	302100	6635000	6518	127700	73370	209900	777300	63310	55340	14850	18900	673000	281800	11330	78020	37090	272600	112400	52270	62990	159300	124600	119000	122000	89850	104800	92100	10120	190500	17400	40880	7919	198900	25810	74810	448600	139300	71020	30010	154200	133700	17510	172300	697300	47300	137800	80950	98360	14270	4600
2020-09-21	397600	2382000	40930	96430	18520	13830	43090	269200	21630	672100	8676	460800	14690	15030	17070	31880	294800	87400	76980	65210	115100	88020	4122	6489	12630	50020	27080	4476000	142500	444800	784700	5526000	245400	412100	683700	806700	271000	1086000	655600	303500	6648000	6553	127800	73870	210000	777800	63550	55410	14890	18940	673800	282300	11400	78480	37090	272600	112900	52510	63360	159500	125100	119300	122500	89850	106300	92400	10230	191100	17650	41180	7951	199300	25850	74950	449200	139300	71110	30090	154400	134100	17560	172900	698900	47410	138200	81100	99960	14430	4638

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-12

General information